Re-emergence in Russian Pulp and Paper Markets · imports. • Consumption of paper and paperboard in the Russian Federation increased by 12.1% in 2003, while production increased

UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION

Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004

Re-emergence in Russian Pulp and Paper Markets

Timber Committee forecasts and presentation by Prof. Eduard Akim, Saint Petersburg State Technological University, Russian Federation



Highlights of Forest Products Market Analysis 2003-2004 (1-2)

• Annual paper and paperboard output climbed by 2.2% in the EU/EFTA subregion in 2003, a record year for European papermakers, while the subregion’s woodpulp output climbed by 2.8%.

• Higher paper and paperboard exports from the EU/EFTA subregion to non-UNECE countries, and a 16% increase in net exports in 2003, propelled expansion of output.




• Paper and paperboard consumption in central and eastern Europe was boosted by stronger regional economic growth in 2003, but the region also experienced a large increase in imports.

• Consumption of paper and paperboard in the Russian Federation increased by 12.1% in 2003, while production increased by 6.2%.




• Although Russian paper and paperboard exports greatly exceed imports in tonnage, the trade balance in product value continued to deteriorate in 2003, with increasing higher valued imports.

• Annual paper and paperboard output in North America receded by 1.2% in 2003, but output climbed in the second half of the year and the first half of 2004.




• With the exception of shipments to China and other countries in Asia, excluding Japan, total Canadian pulp, paper and paperboard product shipments to all major destinations declined.

• Paper and paperboard tariffs were set to disappear by the year 2004 and are at zero according to GATT (Uruguay Round of 1994), but punitive tariffs and an array of non-tariff barriers still exist, sometimes arising from trade disputes with a scope wider than the sector itself.



Highlights of Forest Products Market Analysis 2003-2004 (9)

• Central and eastern European countries’ exports of paper and paperboard grew more than in the other UNECE subregions, boosted by successful preparations for EU accession and investments in capacity by global pulp and paper industries.



In 2003 and the first half of 2004, Russia continued to experience a stable economic upturn.

The growth in output was as much as 7.0% and gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.3% during 2003.



Output of pulp, paper and board in the Russian Federation in 2000 – 2003

(thousand metric tons)

Sources: Goscomstat of the Russian Federation; PPB-express, author's data handling

Products1988(89)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2003/2002,

%

2003/1988

(89), % Pulp total: 8331 4960 5272 5568 5752 103.1 69.0

Market pulp 3076 2018 2136 2233 2301 100.4 74.8

Paper and board

8632 5300 5595 5921 6174 105.3 71.5

Paper totalIncluding:

5465 3320 3415 3524 3654 102.9 66.9

Newsprint 1693 1694 1732 1713 1814 105.8 107.1

Offset paper 396 461 465 491 44991.5

113.4

Board total: 3167 1980 2180 2397 2520 109.5 79.5

Corrugated board

1639 1356 1530 1711 1872 112.5 114.2



Structure of Russian exports of forest-based products

1990 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Round wood, million m3 31,4 20,0 27,6 31,3 31,7 36,5 37,6

Sawn wood, million m3 15,7 4,6 6,4 7,9 7,7 8,9 11,0

In terms of round wood1, million m3 25,1 7,36 10,2 12,6 12,3 14,2 17,6

Market pulp, million metric tons 0,993 1,056 1,373 1,600 1,758 1,885 1,905

Paper and board, million metric tons

2,761 1,767 2,048 2,309 2,353 2,500 2,550

Pulp, paper and paperboard, million metric tons

3,74 2,823 3,421 3,909 4,111 4,385 4,455

In terms of round wood 2, million m3

12,7 9,57 11,6 13,3 13,94 14,87 15,10

Total exports of forest and paper products in terms of round wood, million m3

69,2 36,9 49,4 57,2 58,0 65,6 70,30

Percentage of round wood exports 45% 54% 56% 55% 55% 56% 53%

1 The factor 1,6 is used - source: UN FAO 2The factor 3,39 is used - source: UN FAO



Exports of market pulp, paper and board from the USSR (1980 − 1990) and from

Russia1993 − 2003), 1000 mtYear Market pulp Paper and board

Output Exports Percentage of exports Output Exports Percentage of exports

1980 2457 821 33.5 8688 1018 11.71983 2840 1012 35.6 9556 1034 10.81986 3233 1105 34.1 10395 1188 11.41987 3371 1088 32.3 10566 1252 11.91990 3255 600 18.4 8325 900 10.81992 2109 856 40.6 5750 1568 27.31993 1682 1077 64.0 4462 1418 31.81994 1328 1028 77.4 3410 1264 37.11995 1736 1362 78.5 4070 1690 41.51996 1267 1095 85.7 3220 1380 42.91997 1193 1008 82.8 3331 1507 45.21998 1311 1056 75.8 3540 1783 50.41999 1725 1350 78.3 4467 2019 45.22000 2000 1635 81.8 5239 2355 45.02001 2136 1753 82.1 5595 2350 42.02002 2233 1866 83.6 5921 2453 41.42003 2301 1905 82.8 6174 2550 41.3

Sources: Goscomstat of the USSR, Goscomstat of the Russian Federation, PPB-express, Moscow, 2004, author's data handling



Dynamics of trade balance in 2000 −2003 (million US dollars)

Exports Imports Trade balance1st quarter of 2000 217 153 63

2 − 2000 229 170 593 − 2000 237 192 454 − 2000 237 216 211 − 2001 270 234 362 − 2001 273 281 -8 3 − 2001 220 247 - 274 − 2001 278 338 −601 − 2002 235 262 −272 − 2002 254 338 −843 − 2002 228 309 −814 − 2002 170 291 -121

1st quarter of 2003 226 310 -842nd quarter of 2003 249 357 -1083rd quarter of 2003 234 377 -1414th quarter of 2003 255 422 -167

Sources: State Customs Committee, Pulp. Paper. Board Magazine, PPB-express, PPB Exports, PPB Imports, author’s data handling



Russia’s exports and imports of paper and board, 2000-2003

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000

2001

2002

2003

-

Exports Imports Total Trade Balance



Russia’s exports of paper and board in 2000−2003 (million US

dollars)

Exports Imports Trade balance

2000 920 731 +189

2001 927 1012 −85

2002 887 1200 −313

2003 967 1465 -498

Sources: State Customs Committee, Pulp. Paper. Board Magazine, PPB-express, PPB Exports, PPB Imports, author’s data handling



Europe: Paper and paperboard

70 000

75 000

80 000

85 000

90 000

95 000

100 000

105 000

110 000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1000

mt

Production Consumption



Europe: Paper and paperboard

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

55 000

60 000

65 000

70 000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1000

mt

Imports Exports



North America: Paper and paperboard

80 000

90 000

100 000

110 000

120 000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1000

mt




North America: Paper and paperboard

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1000

mt

Imports Exports



Russian Federation: Paper and paperboard

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1000

mt




Russian Federation: Paper and paperboard

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1000

mt

Imports Exports



Next Presentation

Market and Forest Effects of Russian Policy Developments

byMr. Andrey Benin, Deputy of State Duma

(Parliament), Russian Federation

Documents

Re-emergence in Russian Pulp and Paper Markets · imports. • Consumption of paper and paperboard in the Russian Federation increased by 12.1% in 2003, while production increased