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Raymond Fisman, Columbia Business School
Some questions – and
answers – on corruption
November 13, 2013
Questions and answers on corruption
How much corruption is there, really?
What are the social
consequences of corruption?
Approaches to fighting corruption
Rich countries are less corrupt
3
-2-1
01
2
corr
up
tion
4 6 8 10 12logGDPPC
But a lot of variation with income groups
4
-2-1
01
2
corr
up
tion
4 6 8 10 12logGDPPC
BDI
BEN
BFA
BGD
CAF
CIV
CMR
COM
ERI
ETH
GHA
GIN
GMB
GNB
HTI
KEN
KGZ
KHM
LAO
LBR
LSO
MDA
MDG
MLI
MOZ
MRT
MWI
NER
NGA
NPL
PAK
RWA
SDN
SENSLE
TCD
TGO
TJK
TMP
TZA
UGA
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
-.5
0.5
11
.5
co
rrup
tion
4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5logGDPPC
But a lot of variation with income groups
5
-2-1
01
2
corr
up
tion
4 6 8 10 12logGDPPC
AGO
ALB
ARM
AZE
BIH
BOL
BTN
CHN
COG
CPV
DZA
ECU
EGY
FJI
FSMGEO
GTMGUY
HND
IDN
IND
IRQ
KIR
KSV
LKA
MARMKD
MNE
MNGNIC PHL
PNG
PRY
SLB
SRBSWZ
SYR
TKM
TONTUV
UKR
UZB
VNM
VUT
WSM
-1-.
50
.51
1.5
co
rrup
tion
6.5 7 7.5 8logGDPPC
On the virtues of efficient corruption
"Yes, there was corruption.
Yes, he gave favours to his family
and his friends, But there was real
growth and real progress. I think
the people of Indonesia are lucky.”
(Lee Kwan Yew, 2008)
6
“Rouba mas faz”
The private benefits of connections
7
…and the social costs
8
Evidence on effects of corruption
Politician benefits Company benefits
Social Consequences
• Licenses and contracts
• Trade protection
• Credit access
• Reduced competition
• Increased inequality
• Production distortions
● What’s the relevant counterfactual? – Suharto’s theory of orderly corruption
– What would be the consequences of tightened rules? (Whac-a-mole effect)
● Tax evasion versus tax avoidance
● Why bother evading laws when you can just change them?
On responding to corruption
The private benefits of connections
11
The financial benefits of public office
Mayawati Kumari,
ex-Chief Minister
of Uttar Pradesh
Pre-election disclosures: 2004
$400,000 in assets
Pre-election disclosures: 2008
72 properties
54 bank accounts
$13 million in assets
Official income: 2004-2008
$30,000 per year
Mandatory asset disclosures since 2004
13 11/1
4/20
13
The private returns to public office
● “Balance Sheets” for 2 points in time allows for an
estimate of politicians’ asset accumulation
● Compare asset growth of election winners versus
election runners-up
11/1
4/20
13
14
Assets Liabilities and Net Worth
(1) Movable Assets (3) LiabilitiesCash Loans from Banks amnd Fis
Deposits Loans from Inidviduals
Bonds Debentures and Shares in Companies Dues
Motor Vehicles
Jewelry
…
(2) Immovable Assets Net Assets = (1) + (2) - (3)Land Buildings
…
Winners’ assets grow 3-5% p.a. faster
15 11/1
4/20
13
“Excess” Asset Growth
% o
f o
bse
rva
tio
ns
Source: Fisman, Schultz, and Vig, 2013
In (high-corruption) BIMARU states
“Winner’s premium” is 10% PA
16
For Ministers, Winner’s Premium = 12% p.a.
17
Connections matter, but at what cost?
18
Corruption: grease in the wheels of commerce?
The costs of circumventing regulation
19
Two men jailed for
corruption linked to Lotus
Riverside collapse
Corruption fuels China mine
disasters Corruption the killer in China
rail crash
Corruption Charges Hit
China’s Food & Drug
Regulator, Again
“Corruption is one major reason why accidents happen again and again…It is high time that we took a careful look at connections between local coal mine owners, local officials and the safety watchdog. These links have set up barriers against strict safety supervision.”
Li Yizhong, Minister of Production Safety (2005)
On the social costs of corruption
Political connections and worker deaths
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2008 2009 2010 2011
De
ath
s p
er
10
,00
00
wo
rke
rs
PoliticallyConnected=0 PoliticallyConnected=1
Source: Fisman and Wang, 2013
Fighting corruption
Rules
Technology
Culture
Who will enforce anti-corruption rules?
23
Service Branch Corruption Ranking
Police 1
Land Records 2
Housing 3
Water 4
NREGS 5
Forestry 6
Electricity 7
Health 8
PDS 9
Banking 10
Education 11
Service Branch Corruption Ranking
Police 1
Land Records 2
Housing 3
Water 4
NREGS 5
Forestry 6
Electricity 7
Health 8
PDS 9
Banking 10
Education 11
Source: Transparency International India, 2008
A pictorial history of corruption enforcement in HK
24
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
“If Hong Kong can change, why can't we?”
25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
On the failure to change in Kenya
26
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Kenya's global corruption ranking, 1996-2011
Source: Governance Matters, 2012
Difference in governance, HK vs. Kenya
27
Borrowing good governance: Charter Cities
28
Good governance zone
Enforcer of rules
Borrowing good governance: Charter Cities
29
On the role of rules vs culture among diplomats
“Diplomatic immunity affords [all] foreign diplomats
in America a blank check for bad behavior.”
A simple model of culture and corruption
32
Driver P
olic
em
an
Offer Bribe Pay Fine
Solicit Bribe (5,-5) (-50,-50)
Collect Fine (0,-50) (0,-10)
Reforming a culture of corruption
Super-citizen Mockus
Changing culture in Bogota
Enforcement works, if you can do it
35
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
Total monthly diplomatic parking violations
Bloomberg gets
OK to tow cars
of diplomats
On reforming corruption – last word
36
“Public policies must bring together legal
developments with their informal correlates
(moral and cultural norms and regulations), in
order to achieve changes in people´s
behaviour, attitudes and justifications for how
they live their lives.” (Antanas Mockus, Global
Economic Symposium, 2009)
“Social problems can’t be solved through
better rules or better attitudes – you need both”
37
Thank You!
Gaming of rules - death quotas
38