9
February 11, 2014 ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Result Update WHAT’S CHANGED… PRICE TARGET .................................................................................................... Unchanged EPS (FY14E) ........................................................................................................ Unchanged EPS (FY15E) ........................................................................................................ Unchanged RATING....................................................................................... Changed from Buy to Hold Provision reversals offset lower NII J&K bank results were largely in line with our estimate as NII growth was below estimate while asset quality was stable. NIM declined sharply by 36 bps QoQ to 4%. The cost of deposits (CoD) ascended from 6.6% to 6.9% while yield on advance declined by 11 bps QoQ to 12.2%. The bank has raised additional term deposits of ~| 1500 crore at 9-10% which led to higher interest expense. Deposits raised in advance to adjust in Q4 and aid the NIM to inch higher. Other income growth was disappointingly flattish on YoY basis at | 87.5 crore as CEB income declined 4.1% YoY to | 41.9 crore. Operating expense has risen by 17.3% YoY on expected lines to | 293.2 crore as the bank made adhoc provision of | 21 crore (| 20.3 crore in Q2) in view of the ensuing settlement of wage revision. We believe lower NII growth of 13.9% YoY to keep PAT growth modest at 13.6% YoY to | 1369.6 crore in FY15E. We recommend HOLD rating. Credit growth healthy, asset quality stable, low provision offsets low NII Credit growth was strong at 21.5% YoY to | 43317.8 crore (up by | 2197 crore QoQ). The credit growth within J&K was stellar at 24.6% YoY to | 18680.8 crore (up by | 688.4 crore QoQ) while credit outside J&K grew 18.8% YoY to | 25601.1 crore (up by | 1497.8 crore QoQ). Asset quality was stable as absolute GNPA rose merely by | 16 crore QoQ to | 725 crore while NNPA rose merely by | 19 crore QoQ to | 97 crore. However, fresh slippage was high at | 147 crore of which a single account worth ~| 94 crore had slipped from restructured asset (RA) to NPA. Outstanding RA declined by | 79 crore to | 1416 crore (3.3% of credit). Provision reversal of | 4.6 crore in Q3 offseted low NII to maintain PAT. Healthy all-round performance to continue The bank has dominated the J&K state with market share of ~65% for both deposits and credit over the years. This shall enable the bank to maintain lucrative NIM of 4%. Credit is expected to continue to grow at 20%+ which shall support NII and PAT growth in long term. Asset quality is under control with NNPA ratio of 0.22%, PCR of 90% and RA of 3.3%. Valuations reasonable but no immediate trigger seen J&K bank has been delivering strong return ratios with 1.5%+ RoA and 20%+ RoE. However, no major upside trigger is seen as PAT growth is estimated to remain modest at 13.6% YoY to | 1370 crore. We now recommend HOLD rating from BUY earlier and maintain TP of | 1400. Exhibit 1: Financial Performance | Crore Q3FY14 Q3FY14E Q3FY13 Q2FY14 YoY Gr. (%) QoQ Gr. (%) NII 646.6 684.2 594.2 681.8 8.8 -5.2 Other Income 87.5 91.3 90.5 99.5 -3.4 -12.1 PPP 440.8 484.0 434.8 496.5 1.4 -11.2 PAT 321.3 315.7 289.4 302.7 11.0 6.2 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JAMKAS) | 1332 Rating matrix Rating : Hold Target : | 1400 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 5% Key Financials FY12 FY13 FY 14E FY1 5E NII 1 838 .4 23 16.0 278 0.9 3 168 .6 PPP 1 370 .3 18 10.8 200 3.0 2 278 .8 PAT 803 .2 10 55.1 120 6.0 1 369 .6 Valuation summary FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Net Profit (| crore) 803.2 1055.1 1206.0 1369.6 EPS (|) 165.6 217.5 248.7 282.4 Growth (%) 30.6 31.4 14.3 13.6 P/E (x) 8.0 6.1 5.4 4.7 ABV (|) 833.8 991.6 1171.7 1379.6 Price / Book (x) 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 Price / Adj Book (x) 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 GNPA (%) 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 NNPA (%) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 RoA (%) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 RoE (%) 21.2 23.6 22.6 21.7 Stock data Market Capitalisation | 6458 crore GNPA (Q3FY14) | 725 crore NNPA (Q3FY14) | 97 crore NIM (Q3FY14) 4.0% 52 week H/L 1499/995 Equity Capital | 48.5 crore Face Value | 10 DII Holding (%) 4.5 FII Holding (%) 28.2 Price movement 700 1,000 1,300 1,600 Feb-14 Nov-13 Aug-13 May-13 Feb-13 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 J&K bank (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) Analyst’s name Kajal Gandhi [email protected] Vasant Lohiya [email protected] Jaymin Trivedi [email protected]

Rating matrix Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JAMKAS)breport.myiris.com/ICICISL/JAMKASBA_20140211.pdf · ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 2: Assumptions table FY12

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Page 1: Rating matrix Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JAMKAS)breport.myiris.com/ICICISL/JAMKASBA_20140211.pdf · ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 2: Assumptions table FY12

February 11, 2014

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Result Update

WHAT’S CHANGED… PRICE TARGET ....................................................................................................Unchanged

EPS (FY14E) ........................................................................................................Unchanged

EPS (FY15E)........................................................................................................Unchanged

RATING....................................................................................... Changed from Buy to Hold

Provision reversals offset lower NII J&K bank results were largely in line with our estimate as NII growth was below estimate while asset quality was stable. NIM declined sharply by 36 bps QoQ to 4%. The cost of deposits (CoD) ascended from 6.6% to 6.9% while yield on advance declined by 11 bps QoQ to 12.2%. The bank has raised additional term deposits of ~| 1500 crore at 9-10% which led to higher interest expense. Deposits raised in advance to adjust in Q4 and aid the NIM to inch higher. Other income growth was disappointingly flattish on YoY basis at | 87.5 crore as CEB income declined 4.1% YoY to | 41.9 crore. Operating expense has risen by 17.3% YoY on expected lines to | 293.2 crore as the bank made adhoc provision of | 21 crore (| 20.3 crore in Q2) in view of the ensuing settlement of wage revision. We believe lower NII growth of 13.9% YoY to keep PAT growth modest at 13.6% YoY to | 1369.6 crore in FY15E. We recommend HOLD rating.

Credit growth healthy, asset quality stable, low provision offsets low NII Credit growth was strong at 21.5% YoY to | 43317.8 crore (up by | 2197 crore QoQ). The credit growth within J&K was stellar at 24.6% YoY to | 18680.8 crore (up by | 688.4 crore QoQ) while credit outside J&K grew 18.8% YoY to | 25601.1 crore (up by | 1497.8 crore QoQ). Asset quality was stable as absolute GNPA rose merely by | 16 crore QoQ to | 725 crore while NNPA rose merely by | 19 crore QoQ to | 97 crore. However, fresh slippage was high at | 147 crore of which a single account worth ~| 94 crore had slipped from restructured asset (RA) to NPA. Outstanding RA declined by | 79 crore to | 1416 crore (3.3% of credit). Provision reversal of | 4.6 crore in Q3 offseted low NII to maintain PAT. Healthy all-round performance to continue The bank has dominated the J&K state with market share of ~65% for both deposits and credit over the years. This shall enable the bank to maintain lucrative NIM of 4%. Credit is expected to continue to grow at 20%+ which shall support NII and PAT growth in long term. Asset quality is under control with NNPA ratio of 0.22%, PCR of 90% and RA of 3.3%. Valuations reasonable but no immediate trigger seen J&K bank has been delivering strong return ratios with 1.5%+ RoA and 20%+ RoE. However, no major upside trigger is seen as PAT growth is estimated to remain modest at 13.6% YoY to | 1370 crore. We now recommend HOLD rating from BUY earlier and maintain TP of | 1400. Exhibit 1: Financial Performance | Crore Q3FY14 Q3FY14E Q3FY13 Q2FY14 YoY Gr. (%) QoQ Gr. (%)

NII 646.6 684.2 594.2 681.8 8.8 -5.2

Other Income 87.5 91.3 90.5 99.5 -3.4 -12.1

PPP 440.8 484.0 434.8 496.5 1.4 -11.2

PAT 321.3 315.7 289.4 302.7 11.0 6.2 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JAMKAS) | 1332

Rating matrix Rating : Hold

Target : | 1400

Target Period : 12 months

Potential Upside : 5%

Key Financials

FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ENII 1838.4 2316.0 2780.9 3168.6PPP 1370.3 1810.8 2003.0 2278.8PAT 803.2 1055.1 1206.0 1369.6

Valuation summary

FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ENet Profit (| crore) 803.2 1055.1 1206.0 1369.6EPS (|) 165.6 217.5 248.7 282.4Growth (%) 30.6 31.4 14.3 13.6P/E (x) 8.0 6.1 5.4 4.7ABV (|) 833.8 991.6 1171.7 1379.6Price / Book (x) 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9Price / Adj Book (x) 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0GNPA (%) 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8NNPA (%) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3RoA (%) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6RoE (%) 21.2 23.6 22.6 21.7

Stock data Market Capitalisation | 6458 croreGNPA (Q3FY14) | 725 croreNNPA (Q3FY14) | 97 croreNIM (Q3FY14) 4.0%52 week H/L 1499/995Equity Capital | 48.5 crore

Face Value | 10

DII Holding (%) 4.5FII Holding (%) 28.2 Price movement

700

1,000

1,300

1,600

Feb-

14

Nov

-13

Aug-

13

May

-13

Feb-

13

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

J&K bank (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

Analyst’s name

Kajal Gandhi [email protected]

Vasant Lohiya [email protected]

Jaymin Trivedi [email protected]

Page 2: Rating matrix Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JAMKAS)breport.myiris.com/ICICISL/JAMKASBA_20140211.pdf · ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 2: Assumptions table FY12

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2

Exhibit 2: Assumptions table FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Credit growth (%) 26.3 18.5 19.0 18.5Deposit growth (%) 19.4 20.4 12.4 16.6CASA ratio (%) 40.7 39.2 38.4 38.5NIM calculated (%) 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.8Cost to income ratio (%) 36.9 35.3 38.8 39.2GNPA (| crore) 516.6 643.8 791.5 994.7NNPA (| crore) 49.3 55.3 107.7 154.1

Slippage ratio (%) 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5Credit cost (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: NIM shrinks by 36 bps QoQ as cost of funds rises

12.1 12.2 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.6 12.2

6.5 6.6 6.46.9 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.9

12.4 12.2 12.4

6.6

3.83.6

3.9 3.83.9

4.1 4.14.2

4.3

4.0

5.06.07.08.09.0

10.011.012.013.014.0

Q2FY

12

Q3FY

12

Q4FY

12

Q1FY

13

Q2FY

13

Q3FY

13

Q4FY

13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

(%)

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

(%)

Yield on advances Cost of deposit NIM (RHS)

Source: Company Quarterly Earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research

For the bank as a whole, NIM dipped 36 bps QoQ to 4% as cost of deposits rose by 35 bps QoQ to 6.9% in Q3FY14. Also, yield on advance declined by 11 bps QoQ to 12.24%. J&K bank has one of the lowest base rate (10.25%) amongst mid-sized banks wherein there is room for hike if cost of deposit persistently remain at elevated levels.

Exhibit 4: CASA ratio stabilising at 40%…

1497

4

1598

1

1608

1

1640

8

1747

9

1879

0

1844

5

1837

8

1919

3

2085

6

2440

2

4877

9

5334

7

5311

7

5492

7

5707

5

6422

1

5860

1

6117

1

6315

7

7219

9

8420

1

30.7 30.0 30.3 29.9 30.6 29.3 31.5 30.0 30.4 28.9 29.0

40.2 40.7 38.7 38.2 39.4 39.2 40.2 38.5 38.8 38.4 38.5

0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

Q3FY

12

FY12

Q1FY

13

Q2FY

13

Q3FY

13

FY13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

FY14

E

FY15

E

(| c

rore

)

0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0

(%)

Saving deposits Total deposits SA proportion (RHS) CASA proportion (RHS)

Source: Company Quarterly Earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research

Total deposits of bank grew 10.7% YoY to | 63157 crore while CASA deposits grew by 8.8% YoY to | 24490.8 crore. The outstanding saving deposits growth was modest at 9.8% YoY to | 19192.6 crore (up by | 814.4 crore QoQ).

Despite sharp dip, NIM is still at healthy level of 4%.

Management has guided NIM to improve from hereon and

shall be maintained at 4%+ levels

Page 3: Rating matrix Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JAMKAS)breport.myiris.com/ICICISL/JAMKASBA_20140211.pdf · ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 2: Assumptions table FY12

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3

Exhibit 5: CD ratio has improved substantially in past few quarters…

2823

6

2973

4

3307

7

3322

5

3427

2

3565

8

3920

0

3928

2

4112

1

4331

8

4664

8

5527

8

4742

5

4877

9

5334

7

5311

7

5492

7

5707

5

6422

1

5860

1

6117

1

6315

7

7219

9

8420

1

59.561.0

62.0 62.6 62.4 62.561.0

67.0 67.2

64.665.7

68.6

0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

Q2FY

12

Q3FY

12

FY12

Q1FY

13

Q2FY

13

Q3FY

13

FY13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

FY14

E

FY15

E

(| c

rore

)

54.056.058.060.0

62.064.066.068.070.0

(%)

Advances Deposits CD ratio (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Total credit of bank grew 21.5% YoY to | 43317.8 crore (up by | 2197 crore QoQ) while deposits grew 10.7% YoY to | 63157 crore (up by | 1986 crore QoQ).

Exhibit 6: Sectoral break-up of credit within J&K state

13 13 15 17 16 16 17 18 1816 17 16 16 16 16 15 15 15

36 36 35 34 33 32 32 31 31

16 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 1517 17 18 17 19 19 20 19 19

21 1 0 1 1 2 1 2

0

2040

60

80100

120

Q3FY

12

Q4FY

12

Q1FY

13

Q2FY

13

Q3FY

13

Q4FY

13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

(%)

Agriculture Trade Personal SME Corporate Others

Source: Company Quarterly Earnings update, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 7: Sectoral break-up of credit outside J&K state

81 82 81 82 81 82 83 82 83

0

2040

60

80100

120Q3

FY12

Q4FY

12

Q1FY

13

Q2FY

13

Q3FY

13

Q4FY

13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

Corporate Agriculture Trade Personal SME Others

Source: Company Quarterly Earnings update, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Credit within J&K grew 24.6% YoY to | 18680.8 crore (up by | 688.4 crore QoQ) while credit in Rest of India grew 18.8% YoY to | 25601.1 crore (up by | 1497.8 crore QoQ). Of the total credit, J&K state constitutes 42.2% while the balance 57.8% is from Rest of India.

Exhibit 8: Non interest income growth was flattish on YoY basis at | 87.5 crore

14.8 14.1 13.2 12.3 12.7

24.8

11.9

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14

(| c

rore

)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

(%)

Commission/Exchange Insurance commission

Trading income Miscellaneous income

Other income as % of total income

Source: Company Quarterly Earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research

Management has guided for credit growth of 25% within

J&K and 15-20% outside J&K.

CEB income growth was sluggish as it de-grew 4.1% YoY to | 41.9 crore in Q3FY14 which was a disappointment

Page 4: Rating matrix Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JAMKAS)breport.myiris.com/ICICISL/JAMKASBA_20140211.pdf · ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 2: Assumptions table FY12

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 4

Exhibit 9: Cost to income ratio spikes in Q3FY14 mainly due to low NII and other income growth

38.3

34.634.0 34.3

36.5 36.1 35.636.5

39.9

31.032.033.034.035.036.037.038.039.040.041.0

Q3FY

12

Q4FY

12

Q1FY

13

Q2FY

13

Q3FY

13

Q4FY

13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

(%)

Cost to income ratio

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 10: GNPA ratio of 1.7% and NNPA ratio of 0.22% as on Q3FY14 provides comfort…

545.

0

516.

6

541.

0

551.

6

581.

7

643.

8

665.

4

708.

9

725.

1

791.

5

994.

7

48.9

49.3

48.2

55.3

49.5

55.3

56.1

77.6

96.9

107.

7

154.

1

1.8

1.5

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.61.7 1.7

1.8

1.71.7

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

Q3FY

12

Q4FY

12

Q1FY

13

Q2FY

13

Q3FY

13

FY13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

FY14

E

FY15

E

(| c

rore

)

1.41.51.51.61.61.71.71.81.81.9

(%)

GNPA NNPA GNPA ratio (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Fresh slippages during the quarter stood at | 147.6 crore while Upgradation, recoveries and write-off in Q3FY14 stood at | 68.8 crore, | 55.4 crore and | 7.2 crore, respectively. A single south based account worth | 100 crore in oil exploration sector has slipped to NPA.

NPA provision reversal of | 12.8 crore, reversal of | 6.9 crore on RA and MTM reversal of | 5 crore on investment book was recorded.

Fresh restructuring in Q3FY14 stood at | 137.4 crore but the recoveries of | 217.1 crore led to sequential decline in restructured assets from | 1495.5 crore to | 1415.8 crore.

Operating expense increased by 17.3% YoY to | 293.2 crore. The bank has added 8 branches in the quarter to take the total tally to | 762. It aims to reach 800 branches by FY14E

Absolute GNPA increased merely by | 16.1 crore QoQ to | 725.1 crore. The bank remains adequately provided with strong PCR of 90.2% and NNPA of meagre | 96.9 crore, constituting merely 0.22% of total credit

Page 5: Rating matrix Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JAMKAS)breport.myiris.com/ICICISL/JAMKASBA_20140211.pdf · ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 2: Assumptions table FY12

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 5

Exhibit 11: Restructured assets constitute 3.3% (| 1416 crore) of total credit as on Q3FY14

1978

1366

1367

1501

1978

1490

1688

1495

1416

6.7

4.1 4.1 4.4

5.5

3.84.3

3.63.3

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Q3FY

12

Q4FY

12

Q1FY

13

Q2FY

13

Q3FY

13

Q4FY

13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

(| c

rore

)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

(%)

Restructured assets (RA) RA as a % of advances (RHS)

Source: Company Quarterly Earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 12: Attractive return ratios noteworthy…

21.5 20.423.4 24.1 24.7

20.5

24.522.7 22.8 22.6 21.7

1.5 1.51.7

1.8 1.9

1.5

1.9 1.9 1.9

1.6 1.6

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Q3FY

12

Q4FY

12

Q1FY

13

Q2FY

13

Q3FY

13

Q4FY

13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

FY14

E*

FY15

E*

(%)

-0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

(%)

RoE RoA (RHS)

Source: Company Quarterly Earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research * Calculated

Exhibit 13: Adequately capitalised for growth

13.6 13.4 13.8 13.7 13.812.8 13.6 13.5 13.4

11.1 10.911.7 11.711.4 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.7

-2.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.0

Q3FY

12

Q4FY

12

Q1FY

13

Q2FY

13

Q3FY

13

Q4FY

13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

(%)

Capital adequacy ratio Tier I ratio

Source: Company Quarterly Earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research

We expect RoA of 1.5%+ and RoE of 20%+ to sustain

Page 6: Rating matrix Jammu & Kashmir Bank (JAMKAS)breport.myiris.com/ICICISL/JAMKASBA_20140211.pdf · ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 2: Assumptions table FY12

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 6

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (BFSI)

Financial summary

Profit and loss statement (|Crore)

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Interest Earned 4835.6 6136.8 7050.6 7928.6

Interest Expended 2997.2 3820.8 4269.7 4760.0

Net Interest Income 1838.4 2316.0 2780.9 3168.6

growth (%) 19.1 26.0 20.1 13.9

Non Interest Income 334.1 483.7 490.8 581.4

Fees and advisory 129.1 177.5 177.5 216.5

Treasury Income /sale of Invt. 35.9 137.9 151.7 174.4

Other income 169.1 168.4 161.7 190.4

Net Income 2172.5 2799.8 3271.7 3750.0

Employee cost 521.4 652.3 854.9 996.5

Other operating Exp. 280.7 336.8 413.8 474.7

Operating Income 1370.3 1810.8 2003.0 2278.8

Provisions 169.2 284.2 267.0 318.0

PBT 1201.1 1526.6 1736.0 1960.8

Taxes 397.9 471.5 530.0 591.2

Net Profit 803.2 1055.1 1206.0 1369.6

growth (%) 30.6 31.4 14.3 13.6

EPS 165.6 217.5 248.7 282.4

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15EValuationNo. of Equity Shares 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8EPS (|) 165.6 217.5 248.7 282.4BV (|) 844.0 1003.0 1193.9 1411.4BV-ADJ (|) 833.8 991.6 1171.7 1379.6P/E 8.0 6.1 5.4 4.7P/BV 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9P/ABV 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0

Yields & Margins (%)

Net Interest Margins 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.8Yield on avg earning assets 9.4 9.9 9.8 9.6

Avg. cost on funds 6.0 6.4 6.2 6.0

Avg. Cost of Deposits 5.9 6.4 6.1 6.0

Yield on average advances 11.5 11.9 11.8 11.4

Quality and Efficiency (%)

Cost / Total net income 36.9 35.3 38.8 39.2Credit/Deposit ratio 62.0 61.0 64.6 65.7GNPA 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8NNPA 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3RONW 21.2 23.6 22.6 21.7ROA 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet

(|Crore)

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Sources of Funds

Capital 48.5 48.5 48.5 48.5

Reserves and Surplus 4044.7 4816.2 5742.0 6796.6

Networth 4093.2 4864.7 5790.5 6845.1

Deposits 53346.9 64220.6 72198.6 84201.3

Borrowings 1241.0 1075.0 1247.5 1296.3

Other Liab & Prov (incl sub-debt) 1588.2 1583.0 1839.8 2013.1

Total 60269.2 71743.3 81076.4 94355.8

Uses of Funds

Fixed Assets 420.3 456.2 529.0 747.1Investments 21624.3 25741.1 26865.9 30539.5

Advances 33077.4 39200.4 46648.5 55278.5

Other Assets 693.3 941.3 966.2 1005.3

Cash with RBI & call money 4453.9 5404.3 6066.9 6785.6

Total 60269.2 71743.3 81076.4 94355.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Growth ratios (% growth)

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ETotal assets 19.3 19.0 13.0 16.4Advances 26.3 18.5 19.0 18.5Deposits 19.4 20.4 12.4 16.6Total Income 26.8 28.1 13.9 12.8Net interest income 19.1 26.0 20.1 13.9Operating expenses 5.7 23.3 28.3 16.0Operating profit 19.2 32.1 10.6 13.8Net profit 30.6 31.4 14.3 13.6Book value 17.7 18.8 19.0 18.2EPS 30.6 31.4 14.3 13.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 7

Company Description

Jammu & Kashmir Bank was incorporated on October 1, 1938 and would be celebrating its platinum jubilee by completing 75 years in 2013. It is the only private sector bank with the state government holding a majority stake (53.2%). It was initially set up as a semi-state bank, with its capital being contributed by the state as well as the public under the control of the state government. In 1971, J&K Bank was granted the status of a scheduled bank. Five years later, it was declared as “A” class bank by the RBI. The bank has been designated to carry out the banking business of the state government. J&K Bank is the one and only banker and lender of last resort to the Government of J&K. It claims the distinction of being the only private sector bank that has been designated as agent of RBI for banking. The bank is an undisputed leader in J&K by a wide margin with a network of ~650 branches. It dominates the market with ~65% market share in both deposits and credit. Exhibit 14: Recommendation History

600

750

900

1,050

1,200

1,350

1,500

1,650

Feb-

14

Dec-

13

Nov

-13

Sep-

13

Aug-

13

Jul-1

3

May

-13

Apr-1

3

Feb-

13

Price Target Price

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 15: Recent Releases Date Event CMP Target Price Rating5-Jul-13 Q1FY14 Result Preview 1223 1600 Buy2-Aug-13 Q1FY14 Result Update 1099 1600 Buy21-Aug-13 Banking Industry Update 1091 1300 Buy7-Oct-13 Q2FY14 Result Preview 1158 1300 Buy12-Nov-13 Q2FY14 Result Update 1268 1400 Buy3-Dec-13 Banking Industry Update 1240 1400 Buy8-Jan-14 Q3FY14 Result Preview 1453 1400 Buy

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 8

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (BFSI)

CMP M Cap(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E

Bank of India (BANIND) 181 180 Hold 10,829 46.1 46.6 58.6 3.9 3.9 3.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 12.3 11.7 13.4Bank of Baroda (BANBAR) 562 610 Buy 23,687 106.0 104.9 119.6 5.3 5.4 4.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 15.1 13.3 13.6Dena Bank (DENBAN) 53 47 Sell 1,769 23.2 11.0 17.9 2.3 4.8 3.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 15.8 8.3 11.9Punjab National Bank (PUNBAN) 558 570 Hold 19,711 134.3 107.6 117.6 4.2 5.2 4.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 15.7 11.3 11.3State Bank of India (STABAN) 1,514 1,830 Buy 103,569 206.2 172.3 201.2 7.3 8.8 7.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 15.4 11.0 11.2Syndicate Bank (SYNBN) 83 70 Sell 4,970 33.3 27.8 32.5 2.5 3.0 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 20.5 15.5 16.1Axis Bank (UTIBAN) 1,119 1,200 Hold 52,395 110.7 127.0 147.3 10.1 8.8 7.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 18.5 16.7 16.7City Union Bank (CITUNI) 49 56 Buy 2,351 6.0 6.7 7.6 8.1 7.2 6.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 22.3 20.0 19.2Development Credit Bank (DCB) 54 65 Buy 1,388 4.1 5.5 7.0 13.1 9.7 7.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 11.7 13.6 14.9Federal Bank (FEDBAN) 78 88 Buy 6,667 9.8 9.0 11.2 8.0 8.7 7.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.1 13.9 12.0 14.2HDFC Bank (HDFBAN) 644 625 Hold 153,728 28.3 34.9 41.9 22.8 18.4 15.4 4.3 3.8 3.2 1.8 1.9 2.0 20.3 21.5 22.3Indusind Bank (INDBA) 385 510 Buy 20,168 20.3 25.3 32.0 19.0 15.2 12.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 17.2 16.2 17.8Jammu & Kashmir Bank(JAMKAS) 1,332 1,400 Hold 6,458 217.5 248.7 282.4 6.1 5.4 4.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 23.6 22.6 21.7Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTMAH) 647 636 Sell 49,628 18.2 19.6 22.8 35.5 33.1 28.4 5.2 4.6 4.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 15.6 14.5 14.5South Indian Bank (SOUIN0) 20 22 Hold 2,644 3.8 3.9 4.7 5.3 5.0 4.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 20.5 17.2 17.9Yes Bank (YESBAN) 308 360 Hold 11,040 36.3 42.6 52.7 8.5 7.2 5.8 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 24.8 23.6 23.8

Sector / CompanyRoE (%)EPS (|) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%)

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 9

RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

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