8
July 16, 2018 1 Rating: HOLD | CMP: Rs1,751 | TP: Rs1,703 No surprises to Justify Valuations; Cut to Hold We are cutting HUVR from “Accumulate” to Hold given valuations at 53xFY20 EPS after factoring in 16.4% PAT CAGR over FY18-20 and 52% run up in past 1 year. 1Q19 performance remained robust with 12% UVG and 21% Adj PAT growth, recovery in demand scenario and sustained growth in naturals portfolio and Home care. HUL is undertaking realignment of its manufacturing and supply chain post GST which will reduce costs and expand margins over the coming years. HUL is well placed to gain from Premiumisation in Home Care, success in naturals with Lever Ayush, Indulekha etc. and strong growth in emerging categories (premium laundry, hand wash, Liquid dish wash, Hair conditioner, Face-wash and Green tea). Rising crude oil prices, depreciating INR and competitive actions in select categories pose a near term challenge, although long term outlook remains intact. We value the stock at 46xDec20 EPS and arrive at target price of Rs1703, (1627 based on 46xSept20 EPS). Downgrade to Hold. Concall Takeaways: 1) Trade Channels have normalized 2) Demand has seen improvement in both urban and rural India, however rural has grown faster 3) Crude price increases were set-off by benign PFAD, calibetated price increases and future covers 4) Rising crude and depreciating currency pose a challenge in coming quarters 5) Water purifiers have been impacted due to shift from Gravity purifiers to RO/UV based systems. Air purifiers are at a very nascent stage and consumers are yet to pick up the habit of installing air purifiers. 6) Competitive activity and Modern trade promotions are picking up in a few categories, HUL has managed higher growth despite heightened activity 8) Naturals portfolio has grown at 2.5x of company growth rate led by master brands, specialist brands and variants in existing brands, although on a low base 9) Innovations continued with launch of Brylcream in men’s grooming range at Amazon, Lever Ayush breakfast range in TN, Lakme 9 to 5 Natural range etc. 10) Although Oral care is doing better, Pepsodent has been lagging in growth and is not out of woods as yet 11) HUL is undertaking realignment of supply chain and manufacturing to gain from GST, this will increase efficiency but entail exceptional expenses for next 4-6 quarters. Volumes up 12%, PAT up 21.3%: Net Sales increased 11.4% to Rs93.5bn, backed by UVG of 12%. UVG for Home care increased 14% while it increased by 11% for Personal care and Foods. Domestic consumer sales increased 16%. Gross margin and EBIDTA margin expanded 190bps and 180bps as 30bps decline in staff costs and 130bps in other expenses were neutralized by 27.4% higher ad-spends (150bps). Adj. EBIDTA at Rs22.5b increased 20.6% YoY. Adj. PAT Rs15.67b increased 20.3% as other income increased 19%. Home Care sales increased 3% and EBIT moved up 34% on 440bps margin expansion led by Vim. Domex liquids and powders were extended to newer geographies. Personal care sales increased 0.9%, EBIT up 7.7% on 170bps margin expansion and strong growth in Skin care, hair Care and Color Cosmetics. Food & Refreshments sales up 7.9%, EBIT up 13.2% on 90bps higher margins. Tea had double digit growth; Ice cream and frozen desserts had double digit growth due to peak summer season. Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) July 16, 2018 Q1FY19 Result Update Change in Estimates | Target | Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Rating HOLD ACCUMULATE Target Price 1,703 1,627 Sales (Rs. m) 3,91,394 4,35,204 3,86,876 4,31,531 % Chng. 1.2 0.9 EBITDA (Rs. m) 86,193 1,00,298 86,036 1,02,409 % Chng. 0.2 (2.1) EPS (Rs.) 28.2 33.2 28.0 33.4 % Chng. 0.7 -0.6 Key Financials FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Sales (Rs. bn) 319 345 391 435 EBITDA (Rs. bn) 59 73 86 100 Margin (%) 18.3 21.1 22.0 23.0 PAT (Rs. bn) 41 53 61 72 EPS (Rs.) 18.8 24.5 28.2 33.2 Gr. (%) (2.8) 30.8 14.8 17.9 DPS (Rs.) 16.5 18.0 24.1 27.1 Yield (%) 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 RoE (%) 63.5 78.1 86.2 99.7 RoCE (%) 85.4 100.2 114.8 131.7 EV/Sales (x) 11.7 10.8 9.5 8.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 63.8 51.1 43.1 37.0 PE (x) 93.3 71.4 62.2 52.7 P/BV (x) 58.3 53.5 53.6 51.5 Key Data HLL.BO | HUVR IN 52-W High / Low Rs.1,779 / Rs.1,130 Sensex / Nifty 36,324 / 10,937 Market Cap Rs.3,791bn/ $ 55,248m Shares Outstanding 2,165m 3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.3863.14m Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoter’s 67.19 Foreign 12.15 Domestic Institution 17.27 Public & Others 3.39 Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 8.0 26.7 53.7 Relative 5.9 21.3 35.5 Amnish Aggarwal [email protected] | 91-22-66322233 Nishita Doshi [email protected] | 91-22-66322381

Rating: HOLD | CMP: Rs1,751 | TP: Rs1,703static-news.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2018/07/... · 2018. 7. 17. · HUL is well placed to gain from Premiumisation in Home Care, success

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • July 16, 2018 1

    Rating: HOLD | CMP: Rs1,751 | TP: Rs1,703

    No surprises to Justify Valuations; Cut to Hold

    We are cutting HUVR from “Accumulate” to Hold given valuations at 53xFY20

    EPS after factoring in 16.4% PAT CAGR over FY18-20 and 52% run up in past

    1 year. 1Q19 performance remained robust with 12% UVG and 21% Adj PAT

    growth, recovery in demand scenario and sustained growth in naturals

    portfolio and Home care. HUL is undertaking realignment of its manufacturing

    and supply chain post GST which will reduce costs and expand margins over

    the coming years. HUL is well placed to gain from Premiumisation in Home

    Care, success in naturals with Lever Ayush, Indulekha etc. and strong growth

    in emerging categories (premium laundry, hand wash, Liquid dish wash, Hair

    conditioner, Face-wash and Green tea). Rising crude oil prices, depreciating

    INR and competitive actions in select categories pose a near term challenge,

    although long term outlook remains intact. We value the stock at 46xDec20

    EPS and arrive at target price of Rs1703, (1627 based on 46xSept20 EPS).

    Downgrade to Hold.

    Concall Takeaways: 1) Trade Channels have normalized 2) Demand has seen

    improvement in both urban and rural India, however rural has grown faster 3) Crude

    price increases were set-off by benign PFAD, calibetated price increases and future

    covers 4) Rising crude and depreciating currency pose a challenge in coming

    quarters 5) Water purifiers have been impacted due to shift from Gravity purifiers to

    RO/UV based systems. Air purifiers are at a very nascent stage and consumers are

    yet to pick up the habit of installing air purifiers. 6) Competitive activity and Modern

    trade promotions are picking up in a few categories, HUL has managed higher

    growth despite heightened activity 8) Naturals portfolio has grown at 2.5x of

    company growth rate led by master brands, specialist brands and variants in

    existing brands, although on a low base 9) Innovations continued with launch of

    Brylcream in men’s grooming range at Amazon, Lever Ayush breakfast range in

    TN, Lakme 9 to 5 Natural range etc. 10) Although Oral care is doing better,

    Pepsodent has been lagging in growth and is not out of woods as yet 11) HUL is

    undertaking realignment of supply chain and manufacturing to gain from GST, this

    will increase efficiency but entail exceptional expenses for next 4-6 quarters.

    Volumes up 12%, PAT up 21.3%: Net Sales increased 11.4% to Rs93.5bn, backed

    by UVG of 12%. UVG for Home care increased 14% while it increased by 11% for

    Personal care and Foods. Domestic consumer sales increased 16%. Gross margin

    and EBIDTA margin expanded 190bps and 180bps as 30bps decline in staff costs

    and 130bps in other expenses were neutralized by 27.4% higher ad-spends

    (150bps). Adj. EBIDTA at Rs22.5b increased 20.6% YoY. Adj. PAT Rs15.67b

    increased 20.3% as other income increased 19%. Home Care sales increased 3%

    and EBIT moved up 34% on 440bps margin expansion led by Vim. Domex liquids

    and powders were extended to newer geographies. Personal care sales increased

    0.9%, EBIT up 7.7% on 170bps margin expansion and strong growth in Skin care,

    hair Care and Color Cosmetics. Food & Refreshments sales up 7.9%, EBIT up

    13.2% on 90bps higher margins. Tea had double digit growth; Ice cream and frozen

    desserts had double digit growth due to peak summer season.

    Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)

    July 16, 2018

    Q1FY19 Result Update

    ☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco

    Change in Estimates

    Current Previous FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E

    Rating HOLD ACCUMULATE

    Target Price 1,703 1,627

    Sales (Rs. m) 3,91,394 4,35,204 3,86,876 4,31,531

    % Chng. 1.2 0.9

    EBITDA (Rs. m) 86,193 1,00,298 86,036 1,02,409

    % Chng. 0.2 (2.1)

    EPS (Rs.) 28.2 33.2 28.0 33.4

    % Chng. 0.7 -0.6

    Key Financials

    FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

    Sales (Rs. bn) 319 345 391 435

    EBITDA (Rs. bn) 59 73 86 100

    Margin (%) 18.3 21.1 22.0 23.0

    PAT (Rs. bn) 41 53 61 72

    EPS (Rs.) 18.8 24.5 28.2 33.2

    Gr. (%) (2.8) 30.8 14.8 17.9

    DPS (Rs.) 16.5 18.0 24.1 27.1

    Yield (%) 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5

    RoE (%) 63.5 78.1 86.2 99.7

    RoCE (%) 85.4 100.2 114.8 131.7

    EV/Sales (x) 11.7 10.8 9.5 8.5

    EV/EBITDA (x) 63.8 51.1 43.1 37.0

    PE (x) 93.3 71.4 62.2 52.7

    P/BV (x) 58.3 53.5 53.6 51.5

    Key Data HLL.BO | HUVR IN

    52-W High / Low Rs.1,779 / Rs.1,130

    Sensex / Nifty 36,324 / 10,937

    Market Cap Rs.3,791bn/ $ 55,248m

    Shares Outstanding 2,165m

    3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.3863.14m

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoter’s 67.19

    Foreign 12.15

    Domestic Institution 17.27

    Public & Others 3.39

    Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -

    Stock Performance (%)

    1M 6M 12M

    Absolute 8.0 26.7 53.7

    Relative 5.9 21.3 35.5

    Amnish Aggarwal

    [email protected] | 91-22-66322233

    Nishita Doshi

    [email protected] | 91-22-66322381

  • Hindustan Unilever

    July 16, 2018 2

    Q1FY19 Results (Rs m): Volumes up 12%, Adj. margins up 180bps, Adj. PAT up 21.3%

    Q1FY19 Q1FY18 YoY % Q4FY18 FY19E FY18 YoY %

    Net Sales 94,870 85,290 11.2 90,970 3,91,394 3,45,250 13.4

    Gross Profit 51,230 44,450 15.3 47,830 2,07,786 1,82,930 13.6

    Margin (%) 54.0 52.1 52.6 53.1 53.0

    A&P Exp. 11,530 9,050 27.4 10,700 45,402 41,050 10.6

    % of NS 12.2 10.6 11.8 11.6 11.9

    EBITDA 22,510 18,660 20.6 20,480 87,157 72,760 19.8

    Margins (%) 23.7 21.9 1.8 22.5 22.3 21.1

    Depreciation 1,270 1,140 11.4 1,280 5,134 4,780 7.4

    EBIT 21,240 17,520 21.2 19,200 82,022 67,980 20.7

    Interest 70 60 16.7 40 220 200 10.0

    Other Income 1,350 1,130 19.5 1,000 6,914 5,690 21.5

    PBT 22,520 18,590 21.1 20,160 88,717 73,470 20.8

    Tax 6,850 5,670 20.8 6,070 26,615 22,110 20.4

    Tax Rate (%) 30.4 30.5 30.1 30.0 30.1

    Adjusted PAT 15,670 12,920 21.3 14,090 62,102 51,360 20.9

    Extraordinary (390) (110) (680) 500 (1,140)

    Reported Profit 15,280 12,810 19.3 13,410 62,602 50,220 24.7

    Source: Company, PL

    Sales not comparable due to GST; All segments see margin expansion see margin expansion

    Quarterly Segmental 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19

    Net Sales (Rs m) 87,886 84,700 83,073 88,750 92,130 83,030 85,900 90,970 94,870

    Home Care 28,760 27,770 26,891 30,040 30,470 27,390 27,410 31,020 31,460

    Personal Care 42,216 40,280 39,802 40,750 43,680 39,100 40,900 40,960 44,070

    Foods & Refreshment 14,872 14,470 14,426 15,950 16,540 15,260 15,720 17,350 17,850

    Others 2,038 2,181 1,954 2,010 1,440 1,280 1,870 1,640 1,490

    Sales Growth % 4.4 1.6 (0.8) 6.7 4.8 (2.0) 3.4 2.5 3.0

    Home Care 8.0 3.2 1.0 7.4 5.9 (1.4) 1.9 3.3 3.2

    Personal Care 2.7 (0.3) (2.7) 8.1 3.5 (2.9) 2.8 0.5 0.9

    Foods & Refreshment 5.5 7.2 6.6 8.9 11.2 5.5 9.0 8.8 7.9

    Others (14.3) (15.2) (27.3) (30.4) (29.3) (41.3) (4.3) (18.4) 3.5

    EBIT (Rs m) 15,768 13,981 13,359 16,160 18,170 15,560 15,300 18,640 20,960

    Home Care 3,559 2,800 2,342 3,890 4,480 3,830 3,540 5,090 6,020

    Personal Care 10,214 9,226 9,208 9,840 10,790 9,480 10,070 10,660 11,620

    Foods & Refreshment 2,090 1,863 1,974 2,470 2,950 2,310 1,720 2,870 3,340

    Others -95 91 -166 -40 -50 -60 -30 20 -20

    EBIT Growth % 4.7 9.0 (5.5) 11.3 15.2 11.3 14.5 15.3 15.4

    Home Care 22.7 24.7 (0.6) 28.7 25.9 36.8 51.1 30.8 34.4

    Personal Care 0.3 3.6 (7.1) 9.0 5.6 2.8 9.4 8.3 7.7

    Foods & Refreshment 4.5 14.1 1.5 6.3 41.1 24.0 (12.9) 16.2 13.2

    Others 340.5 112.1 159.0 (128.6) (47.2) (165.6) (81.9) (150.0) (60.0)

    EBIT Margin %

    Home Care 12.4 10.1 8.7 12.9 14.7 14.0 12.9 16.4 19.1

    Personal Care 24.2 22.9 23.1 24.1 24.7 24.2 24.6 26.0 26.4

    Foods & Refreshment 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2

    Others (4.6) 4.2 (8.5) (2.0) (3.5) (4.7) (1.6) 1.2 (1.3)

    Source: Company, PL

  • Hindustan Unilever

    July 16, 2018 3

    HUVR’s focus on innovation and activations continues in core categories

    Source: Company, PL

    HUVR has integrated its foods and refreshments segment

    Source: Company, PL

    Adjusted consumer sales up 16%, reported sales impacted by GST led adjustments

    Source: Company, PL

  • Hindustan Unilever

    July 16, 2018 4

    Comparable FMCG sales up 16%

    4.0

    2.0

    0.0

    8.0

    6.0

    10.0

    17.0 16.0 16.0

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    16.0

    18.0

    Q1F

    Y17

    Q2F

    Y17

    Q3F

    Y17

    Q4F

    Y17

    Q1F

    Y18

    Q2F

    Y18

    Q3F

    Y18

    Q4F

    Y18

    Q1F

    Y19

    Source: Company, PL

    Volumes up 12% on a flat base

    4.0

    (1.0)

    (4.0)

    4.0

    0.0

    4.0

    11.0 11.0 12.0

    (6.0)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    Q1F

    Y17

    Q2F

    Y17

    Q3F

    Y17

    Q4F

    Y17

    Q1F

    Y18

    Q2F

    Y18

    Q3F

    Y18

    Q4F

    Y18

    Q1F

    Y19

    Source: Company, PL

    Ad spend up 150bps on increased brand building

    10.8 10.9

    11.5

    10.4 10.6

    12.3

    12.9

    11.8 12.2

    9.0

    9.5

    10.0

    10.5

    11.0

    11.5

    12.0

    12.5

    13.0

    13.5

    Q1F

    Y17

    Q2F

    Y17

    Q3F

    Y17

    Q4F

    Y17

    Q1F

    Y18

    Q2F

    Y18

    Q3F

    Y18

    Q4F

    Y18

    Q1F

    Y19

    Source: Company, PL

    GM up 190bps; EBITDA margins up 180bps

    51.3

    52.1

    54.0

    20.1 21.9 23.7

    12.0

    14.0

    16.0

    18.0

    20.0

    22.0

    24.0

    26.0

    46.047.048.049.050.051.052.053.054.055.0

    Q1F

    Y17

    Q2F

    Y17

    Q3F

    Y17

    Q4F

    Y17

    Q1F

    Y18

    Q2F

    Y18

    Q3F

    Y18

    Q4F

    Y18

    Q1F

    Y19

    Gross Margins (%) EBITDA Margins (%) (RHS)

    Source: Company, PL

    PFAD prices down 13.7 YoY and 12.1% QoQ

    -21.9-27.8

    -28.9-4.4

    6.7

    28.7

    69.7

    30.3

    3.1 2.7

    -6.9

    -15.3-13.7

    -40.0

    -20.0

    0.0

    20.0

    40.0

    60.0

    80.0

    Jun-1

    5

    Sep-1

    5

    Dec-

    15

    Mar-

    16

    Jun-1

    6

    Sep-1

    6

    Dec-

    16

    Mar-

    17

    Jun-1

    7

    Sep-1

    7

    Dec-

    17

    Mar-

    18

    Jun-1

    8

    YoY QoQ

    Source: Company, PL

    LAB prices up 3.9% QoQ as crude remains firm

    126.1

    84.1

    87.1

    113

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    Mar-

    13

    Jun-1

    3

    Sep-1

    3

    Dec-

    13

    Mar-

    14

    Jun-1

    4

    Sep-1

    4

    Dec-

    14

    Mar-

    15

    Jun-1

    5

    Sep-1

    5

    Dec-

    15

    Mar-

    16

    Jun-1

    6

    Sep-1

    6

    Dec-

    16

    Mar-

    17

    Jun-1

    7

    Sep-1

    7

    Dec-

    17

    Mar-

    18

    Jun-1

    8

    (Rs

    /Kg

    )

    Source: Company, PL

  • Hindustan Unilever

    July 16, 2018 5

    Financials

    Income Statement (Rs m)

    Y/e Mar FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

    Net Revenues 3,18,900 3,45,250 3,91,394 4,35,204

    YoY gr. (%) 2.7 8.3 13.4 11.2

    Cost of Goods Sold 1,58,816 1,62,320 1,84,571 2,03,488

    Gross Profit 1,60,084 1,82,930 2,06,823 2,31,716

    Margin (%) 50.2 53.0 52.8 53.2

    Employee Cost 16,200 17,450 19,753 22,008

    Other Expenses 1,160 940 952 1,287

    EBITDA 58,504 72,760 86,193 1,00,298

    YoY gr. (%) 1.7 24.4 18.5 16.4

    Margin (%) 18.3 21.1 22.0 23.0

    Depreciation and Amortization 3,960 4,780 5,134 5,485

    EBIT 54,544 67,980 81,059 94,813

    Margin (%) 17.1 19.7 20.7 21.8

    Net Interest 220 200 220 220

    Other Income 5,260 5,690 6,727 7,949

    Profit Before Tax 59,584 73,470 87,565 1,02,542

    Margin (%) 18.7 21.3 22.4 23.6

    Total Tax 19,060 20,480 26,707 30,763

    Effective tax rate (%) 32.0 27.9 30.5 30.0

    Profit after tax 40,524 52,990 60,858 71,780

    Minority interest - - - -

    Share Profit from Associate - - - -

    Adjusted PAT 40,524 52,990 60,858 71,780

    YoY gr. (%) (2.8) 30.8 14.8 17.9

    Margin (%) 12.7 15.3 15.5 16.5

    Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) 2,410 (620) 500 500

    Reported PAT 42,934 52,370 61,358 72,280

    YoY gr. (%) 3.8 22.0 17.2 17.8

    Margin (%) 13.5 15.2 15.7 16.6

    Other Comprehensive Income (200) (120) (200) (200)

    Total Comprehensive Income 42,734 52,250 61,158 72,080

    Equity Shares O/s (m) 2,160 2,160 2,160 2,160

    EPS (Rs) 18.8 24.5 28.2 33.2

    Source: Company Data, PL Research

    Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)

    Y/e Mar FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

    Non-Current Assets

    Gross Block 68,064 73,614 78,614 83,614

    Tangibles 61,230 66,720 71,720 76,720

    Intangibles 6,834 6,894 6,894 6,894

    Acc: Dep / Amortization 27,824 32,194 37,328 42,813

    Tangibles 24,690 28,960 33,991 39,372

    Intangibles 3,134 3,234 3,337 3,441

    Net fixed assets 40,240 41,420 41,286 40,801

    Tangibles 36,540 37,760 37,729 37,348

    Intangibles 3,700 3,660 3,557 3,453

    Capital Work In Progress 2,030 4,300 2,350 2,500

    Goodwill - - - -

    Non-Current Investments 5,720 6,000 6,056 6,115

    Net Deferred tax assets 1,600 2,550 2,703 2,865

    Other Non-Current Assets 3,810 5,170 5,276 5,377

    Current Assets

    Investments 40,260 33,840 37,801 44,840

    Inventories 23,620 23,590 27,458 29,977

    Trade receivables 9,280 11,470 12,145 12,931

    Cash & Bank Balance 11,640 28,440 28,036 31,229

    Other Current Assets 5,530 6,260 7,222 8,030

    Total Assets 1,47,510 1,71,490 1,78,342 1,91,401

    Equity

    Equity Share Capital 2,160 2,160 2,160 2,160

    Other Equity 62,740 68,590 68,357 71,314

    Total Networth 64,900 70,750 70,517 73,474

    Non-Current Liabilities

    Long Term borrowings - - - -

    Provisions 4,850 7,720 8,767 9,760

    Other non current liabilities 2,070 1,670 1,795 1,930

    Current Liabilities

    ST Debt / Current of LT Debt - - - -

    Trade payables 60,060 70,130 73,323 79,723

    Other current liabilities 11,960 16,230 18,436 20,524

    Total Equity & Liabilities 1,47,510 1,71,490 1,78,342 1,91,401

    Source: Company Data, PL Research

  • Hindustan Unilever

    July 16, 2018 6

    Cash Flow (Rs m)

    Y/e Mar FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Year

    PBT 59,584 73,470 87,565 1,02,542

    Add. Depreciation 3,150 4,370 5,134 5,485

    Add. Interest - - - -

    Less Financial Other Income 5,260 5,690 6,727 7,949

    Add. Other 2,210 (740) 300 300

    Op. profit before WC changes 64,944 77,100 92,999 1,08,327

    Net Changes-WC 6,490 7,600 1,486 6,737

    Direct tax (19,060) (20,480) (26,707) (30,763)

    Net cash from Op. activities 52,374 64,220 67,778 84,302

    Capital expenditures (12,420) (7,820) (3,050) (5,150)

    Interest / Dividend Income - - - -

    Others (1,040) (10,870) (3,415) (10,165)

    Net Cash from Invt. activities (13,460) (18,690) (6,465) (15,315)

    Issue of share cap. / premium 50 110 346 339

    Debt changes (40) 660 276 261

    Dividend paid (42,640) (46,510) (61,740) (69,460)

    Interest paid - - - -

    Others - - 3 (2)

    Net cash from Fin. activities (42,630) (45,740) (61,115) (68,862)

    Net change in cash (3,716) (210) 198 125

    Free Cash Flow 39,954 56,400 64,728 79,152

    Source: Company Data, PL Research

    Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

    Y/e Mar Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19

    Net Revenue 83,090 85,900 90,970 94,870

    YoY gr. (%) 5.9 11.5 10.8 11.2

    Raw Material Expenses 39,290 39,050 43,140 43,640

    Gross Profit 43,800 46,850 47,830 51,230

    Margin (%) 52.7 54.5 52.6 54.0

    EBITDA 16,820 16,800 20,480 22,510

    YoY gr. (%) (9.9) (0.1) 21.9 9.9

    Margin (%) 20.2 19.6 22.5 23.7

    Depreciation / Depletion 1,150 1,210 1,280 1,270

    EBIT 15,670 15,590 19,200 21,240

    Margin (%) 18.9 18.1 21.1 22.4

    Net Interest 60 50 40 70

    Other Income 2,040 1,520 1,000 1,350

    Profit before Tax 17,650 17,060 20,160 22,520

    Margin (%) 21.2 19.9 22.2 23.7

    Total Tax 5,290 5,080 6,070 6,850

    Effective tax rate (%) 30.0 29.8 30.1 30.4

    Profit after Tax 12,360 11,980 14,090 15,670

    Minority interest - - - -

    Share Profit from Associates - - - -

    Adjusted PAT 12,360 11,980 14,090 15,670

    YoY gr. (%) 14.2 30.2 19.0 21.3

    Margin (%) 14.9 13.9 15.5 16.5

    Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - 1,280 (580) (380)

    Reported PAT 12,360 13,260 13,510 15,290

    YoY gr. (%) 12.8 27.9 14.2 18.3

    Margin (%) 14.9 15.4 14.9 16.1

    Other Comprehensive Income - (10) (100) (10)

    Total Comprehensive Income 12,360 13,250 13,410 15,280

    Avg. Shares O/s (m) 2,164 2,164 2,164 2,164

    EPS (Rs) 5.7 5.5 6.5 7.2

    Source: Company Data, PL Research

    Key Financial Metrics

    Y/e Mar FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

    Per Share(Rs)

    EPS 18.8 24.5 28.2 33.2

    CEPS 20.6 26.7 30.6 35.8

    BVPS 30.0 32.8 32.6 34.0

    FCF 18.5 26.1 30.0 36.6

    DPS 17 18 24 27

    Return Ratio(%)

    RoCE 85.4 100.2 114.8 131.7

    ROIC 310.6 884.2 1,174.6 (1,629.3)

    RoE 63.5 78.1 86.2 99.7

    Balance Sheet

    Net Debt : Equity (x) (0.8) (0.9) (0.9) (1.0)

    Net Working Capital (Days) (31) (37) (31) (31)

    Valuation(x)

    PER 93.3 71.4 62.2 52.7

    P/B 58.3 53.5 53.6 51.5

    P/CEPS 20.7 26.9 30.7 35.9

    EV/EBITDA 63.8 51.1 43.1 37.0

    EV/Sales 11.7 10.8 9.5 8.5

    Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5

    Source: Company Data, PL Research

  • Hindustan Unilever

    July 16, 2018 7

    Price Chart Recommendation History

    No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)

    1 18-Jul-17 BUY 1301 1158

    2 10-Aug-17 BUY 1301 1171

    3 14-Sep-17 BUY 1301 1251

    4 09-Oct-17 BUY 1301 1206

    5 25-Oct-17 BUY 1387 1274

    6 17-Nov-17 BUY 1301 1277

    7 13-Dec-17 BUY 1387 1317

    8 10-Jan-18 BUY 1387 1363

    9 17-Jan-18 Accumulate 1387 1372

    10 12-Feb-18 Accumulate 1387 1335

    Analyst Coverage Universe

    Sr. No. CompanyName Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)

    1 Asian Paints Hold 1278 1292

    2 Avenue Supermarts Reduce 1197 1522

    3 Britannia Industries Accumulate 6170 6217

    4 Colgate Palmolive Reduce 1075 1151

    5 Dabur India Hold 377 385

    6 Emami Accumulate 577 523

    7 Future Retail BUY 682 567

    8 GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Hold 6800 6390

    9 Hindustan Unilever Accumulate 1627 1644

    10 ITC BUY 346 265

    11 Jubilant FoodWorks Hold 1435 1432

    12 Kansai Nerolac Paints Accumulate 526 480

    13 Marico Hold 313 341

    14 Nestle India UR 8893 9785

    15 Pidilite Industries Accumulate 1175 1064

    16 Titan Company BUY 1114 893

    17 Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Accumulate 120 85

    PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

    Buy : > 15%

    Accumulate : 5% to 15%

    Hold : +5% to -5%

    Reduce : -5% to -15%

    Sell : < -15%

    Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock

    Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

    768

    1013

    1259

    1504

    1750

    Jul-

    15

    Jan

    -16

    Jul-

    16

    Jan

    -17

    Jul-

    17

    Jan

    -18

    Jul-

    18

    (Rs)

  • Hindustan Unilever

    July 16, 2018 8

    ANALYST CERTIFICATION

    (Indian Clients)

    We/I, Mr. Amnish Aggarwal- MBA, CFA, Ms. Nishita Doshi- CA, B.Com Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

    (US Clients)

    The research analysts, with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is or will be directly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report.

    DISCLAIMER

    Indian Clients

    Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd, Mumbai, India (hereinafter referred to as “PL”) is engaged in the business of Stock Broking, Portfolio Manager, Depository Participant and distribution for third party financial products. PL is a subsidiary of Prabhudas Lilladher Advisory Services Pvt Ltd. which has its various subsidiaries engaged in business of commodity broking, investment banking, financial services (margin funding) and distribution of third party financial/other products, details in respect of which are available at www.plindia.com.

    This document has been prepared by the Research Division of PL and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

    The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.

    Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor.

    Either PL or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication.

    PL may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document.

    PL is in the process of applying for certificate of registration as Research Analyst under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014

    PL submits that no material disciplinary action has been taken on us by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

    PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have any financial interest in the subject company.

    PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report.

    PL or its research analysts or its associates or his relatives do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report.

    PL or its associates might have received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months.

    PL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months or mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

    PL or its associates might have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months.

    PL or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months

    PL or its associates might have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report.

    PL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. PL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject Company or third party in connection with the preparation of the research report. PL or its Research Analysts do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

    It is confirmed that Mr. Amnish Aggarwal- MBA, CFA, Ms. Nishita Doshi- CA, B.Com Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months

    Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

    The Research analysts for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

    The research analysts for this report has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company PL or its research analysts have not engaged in market making activity for the subject company

    Our sales people, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all o the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest.

    PL and its associates, their directors and employees may (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the subject company or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the subject company or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to the subject company or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.

    US Clients

    This research report is a product of Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd., which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker-dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

    This report is intended for distribution by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional Investor.

    In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").

    Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Marco Polo or another U.S. registered broker dealer.

    Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai-400 018, India | Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209

    www.plindia.com | Bloomberg Research Page: PRLD

    http://www.plindia.com/

    2018-07-16T21:30:22+0530SREESANKAR RADHAKRISHNAN