Death Rates VaryAmong Cars by MoreThan 800 Percent

Occupant deaths occur far mOTe oftenin some cars than in others. InsuranceInstitute for Highway Safety researcherscomputed death rates for 1984-88 modelcars during calendar years 1985-89 andfound that, among 134 series, the one withthe lowest death rate was Volvo's 240station wagon with 0.5 deaths loreach 10,000 of these cars regis­tered. The highest rate?Chevrolet's Corvette Coupe, asmall sports car (4.7 per10,000). The Corvette's deathrate was more than 9Urnes as highas the Volvo's (see table, pages 4-5).

For each car series, rates were com­pUled lrom the total number of occupantdeaths and registrations in the 5 calendaryears, 1985-89. (A car series is a familywithin a make with the same wheelbaseand a degree of commonality in construc­tion such as body, chassis, etc.) Results for1984-88 series are presented only lor thosewith at least 150,000 registrations during1985-89 (1989 model cars aren't includedbecause registrations are counted midyearwhen new cars are still being sold). Re­sults for all cars and for each carsize{body style group were computed fromdeath and registration counts lor all carseries, regardless of numbers registered.

Car size is an important influencing lac­tor on death rates. 01 the 14 vehicle serieswith the lowest death rates,S are large,and 7are midsize. Only 2are small. Nine of

(See 800% Voriation, p. 2)

Thi••peelaimarn the .econ.titute for Hi,ti.hed pallen,eper 10,000 regUlcar mde andon-lhe-road deatAnd, in thi. repa.erie. are incluthe rate. were re.tead of]03. Theinclude. morehence lell expol

f Statu. Reporthe In.urance In­afety hal pub­cupant death.

.. by indl.ldualele are actual,not test re.ult..,olleager car

n the nflt time- ]34 terles in·n page. 4 and 5th lower .ale.,year.

Many Cars PerformBetter (or Worse)Than Predicted

Actual death rates for individual carseries tell only part of the story (seeDeath Rates Vary Among Cars by MoreThan 800 Percent) because they're influ­enced by the age and sex of the peoplewho drive them, as well as by the size ofthe cars. So Insurance Institute for High­

way Safety researchers computed loreach of 134 popular car series a

predicted as well as an actualdeath rate, with the predictedrate taking into account threeimportant lactors influencing

the actual death rate. The re­searchers developed a regression

model that relates actual death rates tocar size, driver age, and driver sex. Be­cause vehicle registration informationcannot be broken down by owner age orsex, the researchers' model uses inlonna­tion about the drivers who were involvedin the fatal crashes.

Specifically, the researchers estimateda nonlinear relationship between thedeath rates of individual vehicle seriesand their wheelbases, the proportion ofoccupant deaths thai occurred withdrivers under 30 years old, and the pro­portion of male drivers. (A detailed expla­nation 01 the research methods is avail­able lrom the Institute on request.)

From this model, the researchers com­puted a predicted death rate for each carseries using ils actual wheelbase, propor­tion of young drivers, and proportion of

(See Betteror ROne, p. 3)

-- .- --_ .. - --- - --- ---- ---- ._-------_ .. - ----__ _ _ _. _ _ • _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ • _ _ h _ _ _ _ • _ •

2-IIHS Slaws Report, Vol. 26, No.4, April 13, 1991

800% Variation(Cont'd from p. I)

the 13 cars with the highest death rates aresmall. The other 4are midsize. None is large.

Large station wagons, large two-door cars,and large luxury cars are the groups with thefewest deaths per 10,000 registered cars. Thegroup with the highest number of deaths per10,000 registrations is midsize slXlrts cars.

Death rates vary nol only by car size butalso within size and body style groups.Among small four.(Joor cars, lor example, theSaab 900 had the lowest rale (0.6). The ralefor the fouHloor Chevrolet Sprint, was morelhan I times as high (4.5).

The mix of occupant deaths between sin·gle- and multiple-vehicle crashes varied con­siderably, 100, with small cars usually havinghigher proportions of deaths in single-vehiclecrashes than large cars. Chevrolet's CorvetteCoupe had the highest proportion 01 single­vehicle crash deaths (83 percent) among all134 cars. Buick's Century two-door and Elec­tra station wagon had the lowest (13 percent).

Another important influence on deathrales, besides car size, is driver age. Carswith high percentages of fatakrash-involveddrivers who are under 30 years old tended tohave higher death rates. The sex of the driveris important, too. Cars with high percentages

of female drivers tended to have lower rates(see table, pages 6-7).

These three factors - car size, driverage and sex - explain some differences indeath rates among cars. But they don't ex­plain them all. Volkswagen's Cabriolet/Rab­bit convertible, lor example, had a relativelylow death rate (1.3), even though it's smalland had a relatively high percentage 01drivers under 30 (71 percent).

Still another influencing factor involvesthe presence or absence of automatic re­straints. Most 01 the 134 car series were notequipped with automatic restraints during1984-88, but all 1990 and later models 01 thesame cars (not passenger vans) do havesuch restraints. Death rates lor the newermodels equipped with air bags can be ex­pected to be lower than the rates shown lorcorresponding 1984.s8 models.

The cars included in the study rangefrom one to live years old and, within thatage range, the older cars had only slightlylower death rates than the newer cars.

To account lor the effects of car size anddriver age and sex, Institute researcherscomputed a predicted death rate lor eachcar series. Then they compared predictedand actual rales (see Many Cars PerlormBellet (or Worse) Than Predicted, page I).

_11•.)90 95 100

lIHS Status Report, Vol. 26, No.4, April 13, 1991-3

Better or Worse(Ca.t'd from p. I)

male drivers. What's especiallyinteresting are the differencesthat the Institute's researchersfound between individual car se­ries' predicted and actual deathrales. This comparison tells ushow much better or worse eachof the car series performed thanwe would have expected, giventhe car's size and the age andthe sex of the drivers who werein its fatal crashes.

Among the 134 vehicle serieslor which Institute researcherscomputed actual and predictedoccupant death rates, 81 series(I9~ models) performed bet­ler than predicted during calen­dar years 1985-89. Forty-lour carseries performed worse thanpredicted, and 9 had actual oc­cupant death rates that matchtheir predicted rates.

lblvo's 241) station wagon (above) had the lowest occupant deathrate among all 1984-88 model cars studied. Chevrolet's CoruetteCoupe had the highest occupant death rate.

Some of the 134 car seriesperformed much better than pre­dicted after taking into accountvehicle size and the age and sexof the drivers: Saab 900 !our­door, Nissan Pulsar, Volvo 240station wagon, VolkswagenVanagon, Volvo 740/760 lour·door, Volkswagen Cabriolet/Rab­bit convertible, Honda Accordtwo-door, and Volkswagen Jettalour-door.

The following 13 cars per·lormed much worse than predict­ed: Chevrolet Sprint four-door,Dodge Aries lour-door, Oldsmo­bile Delta 88lour-door, ChevroletCelebrity two-door, ChevroletSprint two-door, Plymouth Re·liant two-door, Buick LeSabrelour-door, Dodge Aries two-door,Plymouth Reliant lour·door,Dodge Aries station wagon,Chevrolet Caprice/Impala lour­door, Plymouth Horizon lour­door, and Chevrolet Monte Carlo.

4-IJJ/S SlaIUS Repon, Ibl 26. No. 4, ApriI/3. 1991

-- "'. S $

1 ActuIIl DttI. "'- PNdIctM- - - --U .. ,......~ """"""'- " .. "'"..... """"-'~1>....... " " ""..... ~Grn I"-quII ,.. " ""..... Oadgec....... " " ""..... Ford Crownv_" " ""M~ -- " " ""M~

e-"""'" " .. ""M~ Ik.w:l< Electr. ,. .. "".... GMC Sal.-l Vall " ,., ~.... ,........ " ,., ~.~ ChrMlIel AItro Van ,.,

" ""U ... '"M·" ~vo2"ll " " ."..... Foo:l Taurus ••• " ""M·" Buicl< CenlWf " " '"M·" """llac 6000 " ,.. ,..M·" c~Ce~ .. ,., ,~

M·" Clldam:lbIltC~I Cletil ,. ..M·" """"~nE. " " '"..... Plymc>ulh ReII.rn .,

" '"M~ ~c.val" ••• .., .,..... -- ,.," ""U U U

M~ -'-'- ,., " "'".... 5ubaru DIJGl. .wo " >0 ~,

M~ ToycU T«OIl awo .. ... ""M~ Torch V.., ",.

"".... --""'" '" "• S7..fl8 ""'.... U ,.'"

U " ........ "'-aIry 0._""'- .., ".... ........ " ... "....~ Ninery-Eoghl " ... "M~ ""''''''''''-. U .., "..... ~c. ........... " " ",• 87-88 -_.. U ,., "'"·,,~ ,-- ••• ... ",• IIHIlI .......... " ,.,

""U '" '"M~ .... '" ,.. " ""·..~ Toyotl CfeuiISa ,. ... ""• 87..e8 Toyota Canvy " " '"M~ -'" " ... ""M~ Oldsmot>iit Fnn~. ,. ... ""..~ _...... ,. " "'"..~ Ford T....' .... ,."

,~..~ Chl}'Mor l.BarOtl GTS '.' " '",,~ NIssM Sl.nll"

,.,""..~ ..""'.... "

... .-M~ .......- " " '"..... ChfyMr New yotlc"IE Ila;lyJ

",.. '"M~ 0lc!ImcItlM Cull... c..ra " ,.. .-

M~ CIdibc:C-.on" " '"M·" ..."""'" "

,.,• .. """- ,., ,., ",

M·" ...- ... " ""..... -""* " ,.,""..... c_""""" ,.. ... '".... _e..- ,.,

" '"..... C......~ >0 " ,~

M~ -"" >0"

,~

,,~ C_e-. " u .-..... -- '" " ""..... _...... ,. ,.,'"• INIII -- ,. ,.~..~ e-eo._ ,. .., ""'..... -- ,.

" ."U U ,...... ...... "

,.'".... -- " " '",,~ - .... ,.. " "'"..... -"" ••• ,.. '"..... -"'" " ,."".... _m " ... '"..... s...t.u OUGl s.o.n " " '"..... -"" '" ... '"M~ -- ,., ,. .,

.~ ChevfoleI New. ,., ,.,"• 874 FOtd ESCOll ,., ",,,.

M" Plymoolh Hanzon " ., "".... ~Ildal E.o»I/MItIubialli PI.ei. " "..... Che'tfollll Speclrum ... ,.. .-..... ChlMolet SjlrInl .., ,.. ."

MIDSIZE

UHSSIaIus Report, IiJI. 26, No. 4, Apri11~ 1991-,5

1984-88 Models During 1985-89, by Car SIze and Body Style-- PNdldM AclUIII om. from P\'M1*d.... .... - --u ,. uu ... .,

• 87·M.........., ,. .. "".... ~eus-c... .. " '"..... _-..... .. ,. n•..... ..."""'" ,.. "..... ......"""" ,.. ,...... ...""- " '-'..... ...- '-' '-'..... -..,-", " ,.. ........ _......

'-' '-' '"• llHlll Ponbac: Grand Am '-' '-' '"..... .......- " "......... .....- ,. ••• "...... ___e-

O> ,. ""..... -,- " .. '"..... _ ..eo- u " ..u ... ...... "'*"'"""'", ClotrdIl.""*ee-

".. "".... -"'" u ... ...

"... ......- ,. ,.""..... ,,,...-

" " """... .........." " ........ .....- ,.. " "..... ...... ,.. " ''''87·. TII'1OI& T-.l ,., '-' ....... _CoO ,.. .. "".... ..... CoO U '-' "...... ...... "",." '-' " ""..... - "'"""" " .. ""• 87·" ,~ ..... ,. '-' '"..... Hylrocl8obcIl.~ Pf-. " " ''''.... _..- ,., '-' '"..... "- ,.. " '".... _..- ., " ""

u '-' u..... L.InooIn Town c. ,.. " ''''"11(.. Me<oIdft SDUSEL 5ef1es ,.. " "'".... C8dIIac~20 ,.," ""....... ~ 28O£J3OOD'E ,.. ••• "".... ~~Ie40 .., " '"..... ~ " ,.,"u u ...... V0!v07~'O " ••• ....... 4cw'~'D ,.." ""..... Auc;lj$OOO"O ,.. ,.

"'".... BMW 500 5ef_ ••• " 'N..... Lincoln Mart< VII ,.. ,.. ".M·.. BMW 300 s.r_ "0 ,. ,. n..... BMW 300 SerleI 20 " ,.. ""U .. ........ Ponliac FIfellild " ".... Ford Muslang Conv. ., ,.. ...... ,~ ...... ., ,.. "...... c_""""" ., ... ''''U .. '-'.... .........."-' '-' ,. ....... Nouan 300Vl 2.2 " ,.,..... Ir4zdI, RX·7 Coupe ,.. 10 '".... TO)'OllI MR2 " .. ""..... -,- ,., ,.. '".... -,."" .. ... ...... --""'-"-' .. '-' ''''A-.ge lor All c.. 2.0

Unless ot~.. noteel, resulls shown in the table are !of cars that _e equlPl*l wrth manualIapIshouIl* safety bitlis. Results tor cars equlPPBd wrlh air bags ani ldMitiecI wrlh two asterISks ("").Results !of c.q~ WIth automatic~ bells are IdentJlied WIth 11 SIngle aslet\sll; ("J. Earliermodels 01 I~" e.t'l equ'pped Wllh manual belts are e.c1udl1d. For exampkJ, Ford', EleOrt _asequopped wrlh auloma11c safely belts beglnTlIIl9 early I1l the 1987 model year. Thenrfofe, mulls _sl10wn onIylor the 1987-88 model ESCOl1II that had auIDmlIIIC befts.

Most Clf sen" shown In the lable had ne<1her all bags IlOf automatic safely belt$ They_.equwed wottl InInUaI IlplIhouIdeI' bells.~ WIth 1990 modeI6,~, .. ears (but I'lOl lTIOSlvans) d) r- lW\C:lmaIIC~ as~ eqo.apmenl.. Oealh tales lor !he~~ wrlh .. begscan be expec;tld 10 be lower It*l the resulls shoWn In tt-s table.

LARGE

MIDSIZE

6-I1HS _ Repotl, Ib/. 26, No.4, April 13, 1991

Additional Information About Cars Listed on Pages 4and 5

SMALL

LARGE

Regill..-tlon """'" """'" """'",,- ea.". y~"" ... Slng"v.hlde

." ,,. ...."" " .. "..... Oldsmobile Custom CMSer '" ".,.. " " "..... Pontiac SlfarilParisienne '" ""''' " " "..... Metcury Grand MaflllJis ,,. 180205 ," "..... Dodge Caravan '" 1392416 " " "..... Ford Crown Victoria ,,.

"""" • " "8.-88 Plymootl1 Vcyage, '" 13291Cl6 " " "..... Chevrolet Clljlrioe '" 732464 " '" "..... Buicl< E1ectra '" 151789 " " "85·88 GM(; Salari Van '" 152Q30 " " "..... Ford "","cslar '" 731838 " .. ""." Chevrc18t Aslro Van '" 6.51367 " " "M' ", .."... " " "..... _240 "" """ " " ".... Ford Taurus '" 417575 " " "..... BlJick Gen\lJfy '" 322a.O " .. "84-88 Pontiac 6000 '" 236446 " ",.

"." CI\eV'ole! Gelebtlty '" 111774' '" .. "..... Oldsmobile Cudl\S$ Ciera '" 505232 • " "..... Ametican ellgte ,., 169885 " " ".... P1ymouH' ReliarJI ,.,'''M " " "..... Chevrolet Caval.., '" ,..= " " "..... Dodge Aries '00 395738 " .. ".. .. ...... " " "&4-88 _wlIOI'" V."agon " \64475 , M '""". Subaru DLJGL 4WO " 493683 " " "..... TOyol3 TIH'C8l 4WD " "".. " "

,...." TOyol3 Van .. 398611 '" " ".... SUbaru DUGL " 312004 ,." "87-88 Ford Esoort .. ,- " "

,... '" "...'" " " ".... "'-'Wry Grand Marquis '" 1608967 , n "85·88 avid< Eteclta '" 1042965 " ",.

85·88 Oldsmobile Ninety-Eight '" 1121383 " " '"..... Ford Crown Viclotia '" 1605127 " " "..... Chevrolet Caprice/Impala ". 2437385 " '" "8HI8 Oldsmobile Delta 88 '" ""'" • " "87·88 Pontiac Bonneville '" 235169 " " "67-88 Buid<.leSabre '" 238853 ," '"." .., -... " .. "..... Vol.o 240 ... 569175 " .. "..... TO'fOU Cressida '" 3.9017 " " "67-88 TO'fOU ClmfY '" .65712 " " "..... P&<>geet 505 ". 174617 " .. "..... Oklsmollil6 Firenza '" 365936 " " ""... """"''''''''' '" 1503616 " .. ".... Ford Taurus '" 1261176 " " "65-66 Chrysler leBarQII GTS '" 533109 " .. "67-88 Nissan Stanza '00 22<1039 " .. "..... r.\e'C<Jry SlI:lle '" 432.74 " " "..... Ponliac 6000 '" 1613225 " M '"..... Chrysler New Yorker (E BoGy) '" 816382 , .. "..... Oldsrl\Ot)jle Cutlasa Cie,a '" 3195916 " .. "..... Cadillac Cimarron '" ,~'" " " "..... 8lnck Ger'l1lJry '" 26157114 '" .. "" Ford Tempo '00 201512 ,." "..... Bulck Skytl_ '" 3811778 " " ""... Dodge La""'" '" """ " .. "..... Cne.m!e1. Celeb<ity '" 3395562 " .. "..... Plymou!hCara....... '" 349074 " .. "..... Chr)'$le'llJ9aron '00 ...." " .. ".....

-~ '" 489358 " " ""... Cne.roIe! Cor~ '" 28c4029 .. " "..... Plyrnoulh Re~.nt '00 11~63 " M "..... Pontiac Sunbl,d '" 67tl327 " " "87-66 Nissan "'..1m. '00 242187 .. " "..... ChlMol8I ca.aIier '" 237.298 " .. "..... Mo, '00 971()51 " " "M' .. 11732112 .. " ".... Saab 900 " 232016 .. " .."... VoIl<sw;ogen Jetta " 634174 M " ..87-66 Nissan santra " ,,""', " " "85-66 PIymooth Colt " 182849 " .. ..85-88 Volkswllgen Golf " 2.3272 " .. "..... Muda 323 .. 26aoel " .. ..85-88 Suba,u DUGL Sedan " 376677 " .. "85-8lI _C"' .. 197713 .. .. "..... -- " 971081 " .. "85-8lI ChlMolel N<wa " 997«3 " " "67-88 Ford ESQOI'I .. 249123 " .. ".... Plymoolh Horizon " 1133782 " .. "..... ft,vldaO~ PrecIa .. """ .. " "85-88 Chevrolet Spec1rum .. .38701 .,

" "..... Chevrolet Sprint " 152211 M " "

SMALL

LARGE

MIDSIZE

MIDSIZE

IlIl5Status Report, IfJ/. 26, No. 4, ApriI/~ /99/-7

A¥glebllltion ....... ....... .......- eau... --. ---M ,,, """, ",.

""",,,

"""" .. " M17·. -- '" """ " .. "M·" ~~Coet. '" 508115 " " ".... -.,-..." ". 2"111105 M " ".... ....e-., '" 11;1919 " " ".... ......,"""" ". 170732" M .. ...... -- '" 21.-;)819 " " ".... ....- '" 1110112 .. ,.

"....--'*"~ ". ,~ " .. ".... ---- '" 717313 " .. ..".. _...."" '" ""'" " " ".... ........-. '" 2611!iol "

,.".... -- '" 217li05 " " ".... --......... ". 1551686 " .. "..... _..-

'" '''''' .. " "....--~ '" 1982913 "

,. .... .. ".- .. " ...... WI ~'RilIOIIcc.n.. .. ,.... " " ".... _GoO" ,,.= .. " .."... ........... " "'''' w .. 50.... '-- " ".." " .. "".. .......... " ...... "

,.".... ,...,,- .. ,..", " .. ,..... ....... .. ""'" .. n "".. TO'j'I:QT~ .. ,..", " " ,..... ........ "'" .. ,- " .. ...... -"'" ,. 201"20 .. .. ".... ......""', " ",... " .. "..... --""- " ",,,, ,.

" ..".. ,~- .. 511352 " " ...... "'-EX*~P.- M """ " " ...... -..- " """ " .. .,..... ... .. 21210&8 " " M.... ."....,""'. .. """" .. " ".. '" ,...". • .. ".... UncoInT_C., '" ''''''' , .. ".... Mln»del SDUSEl se.. '" 191051 " .. ...... c..... Frwoooi~20 '" """ • 50 ".... -_.. '" """ " " ".... CIIllrIiK FI'WooclJDllviIIe "0 '" 1300122 ,

",..... Clldtllac: Br " '" 1;77521 ,

" ".... '" "25nS7 ,." ...... VoIYo 7"01180"0 '" ...~ " " ".... Ao:ufI~"O '" 170103 " .. ",.... A\Idl5000 "0 ". 003319 ,." "..... BMW !lOO 5e<1ea ,OJ 257761! " " "..... UncGln MlIIk VII '" 332550( n " ".... BMW 300 se......0 '" 187.-61 " 50 "..... BMW 300 se<14ts 20 '" ""''' " '" ".. '" 5&10120 " " ".... Pontiac: F.-.b!fll '" ""'" " " ".... FOtd Mllstq CorIII '" """ " " ....... FOrd MusUlng '" 18671« " " 50.... c_"""'"

'" """" " " .... " 51111111 ",.

'".... PCK$d'It $« eo...,. .. 197853 " .. ...... N....... 300ZX 2.2 .. ",,.. .. " ".... "'ucla RX·] eo..op. .. -, " " ".... TO'j'I:Q MAl " ",'" " " 50.... _..- OJ lU5198 " " ".... """"'''' " """ .. '" ".... --""""'"'- " "70313 50 '" OJ

'NtllIllIlaM -1engIt1 01....,.. II'l or'Id'IM

RegIS1l"lion Counts -1I.m 01 vetdIs r8gIIilefed (l,nng cMlndar years 1985-89

P..cenl 'l'tlunlJ-1*cenI 01 dA1tIs WI cars WIlh dnveis under age 30

PermnI M-. - pen:enI 01~ II'l Cln WIlh male dnveis

Pen:.nI~~ - Plltl*lI of cINths II'l $rogle.~<nshes

LARGE

MIDSIZE

SMALL

NOTES

Special Issue

This special issue 01 Stalus Report focuseson death rales by car make and series. Oth­er special issues have focused on the fol­lowing subjects:

Low-Speed Crash Tests 26:2, 1991Fuel Economy, Safety 25:8, 1990AntHock Brakes for Trucks 25:5, 1990Speeds on Rural Interstates 251, 1990Death Rates by Car Series 24:11, 1989Desiilling Saler 'khicles 24:8, 1!IlI9Tnd:CrashCongestion 23:12,1988Making Traffic Laws \\bri 23:6, 1988Seal Belt .00 Hclmet La", 2201 3, 1987NHl'SA Salety Rules 221, 1987Vehicle Size and Death Rates 22:2, 1987U,S,S.letyActs 2"11,1986

Seat Bell Use laws 20:12.1985&hool Bus Safety 20,5,1985Seal Bell Use laws 19:14.1984Teenagers' Driving 1~1O, 1984

\01. 26, No. 4, AprtII3, 1991

1005 North GItbe Ro.dArlinglon, VA22201(703) 247·1500

Editor JAmes H. MooneyA5socWt: Editor. ReJ KelT HowJrthEditoNl Assistant: Cir\ele tqhe$ProductIon: SbeI1a iacbon, IIiahIlIlIU

s~~REPORTrOl. --,.,.,..".wm

The ln$urJlICC k1stltute lor IfiIIrwJy 5Ilety is; _Indepm.dent, IlOIIflI1l6l, sdcDtifk: IIIld tducltiorW orpniution.1l isdedkaled to m:lucing the louts - dnths, injurle5. andproperty damage -...-Iting from nashts on tht 1IIlion'.hlgllways. Tht instItute Is supported by lhe AmerIcan In.stll'llICe Highway Safely Association, the Amerlcan JnsurtrsHlghway Safety AlHaocc. the National Associalion of Inde­pendent Insurm Safely Anociallon, and 5C\ItfalindividuaiInsurance COlDpWei.

Contl!llts l1li}' be ttpUb/lIh«I whole, or in part. with altri­......~OOI&-988.'(