Rates of ChangeRates of Change(for selected nations 1960 to 2050)(for selected nations 1960 to 2050)

CountryCountry PopulationPopulation

1960 - 20051960 - 2005 2005 - 20502005 - 2050

BrazilBrazil 2.142.14 0.770.77

ChinaChina 1.561.56 0.220.22

EgyptEgypt 2.132.13 1.191.19

IndiaIndia 2.072.07 0.870.87

IndonesiaIndonesia 1.851.85 0.730.73ItalyItaly 0.340.34 -0.26-0.26

JapanJapan 0.700.70 -0.53-0.53

MexicoMexico 2.362.36 0.580.58

NigeriaNigeria 1.931.93 1.511.51

CanadaCanada 1.091.09 0.300.30

United StatesUnited States 1.121.12 0.780.78

ZimbabweZimbabwe 2.742.74 0.430.43

#1) Rates of Change Solutions

#2) Measuring degree of change.#2) Measuring degree of change.

• In general terms there are two approaches In general terms there are two approaches we can use to measure the degree of change.we can use to measure the degree of change.

• The first approach is “absolute” in which we The first approach is “absolute” in which we compare the actual differences between two compare the actual differences between two sets of numbers. This shows the true change sets of numbers. This shows the true change in the data, but makes it difficult to compare in the data, but makes it difficult to compare large populations to small populations.large populations to small populations.

• The second approach is relative in which The second approach is relative in which numbers are considered in comparison to numbers are considered in comparison to some base number. This allows for some base number. This allows for comparisons between populations of any size.comparisons between populations of any size.

Ranked ListRanked List RelativeRelativeItalyItaly - 176%- 176%

JapanJapan - 176%- 176%ChinaChina - 86%- 86%

ZimbabweZimbabwe - 84%- 84%MexicoMexico - 75%- 75%CanadaCanada - 72%- 72%BrazilBrazil - 64%- 64%

IndonesiaIndonesia - 61%- 61%IndiaIndia - 56%- 56%EgyptEgypt - 44%- 44%

United StatesUnited States - 30%- 30%NigeriaNigeria - 22%- 22%

Ranked ListRanked List AbsoluteAbsolute

ZimbabweZimbabwe - 2.31 %- 2.31 %MexicoMexico - 1.78 %- 1.78 %BrazilBrazil - 1.37 %- 1.37 %ChinaChina - 1.34 %- 1.34 %JapanJapan - 1.23 %- 1.23 %IndiaIndia - 1.20 %- 1.20 %

IndonesiaIndonesia - 1.12 %- 1.12 %EgyptEgypt - 0.94 %- 0.94 %

CanadaCanada - 0.79 %- 0.79 %ItalyItaly - 0.60 %- 0.60 %

NigeriaNigeria - 0.42 %- 0.42 %United StatesUnited States - 0.34 %- 0.34 %

#2) Measuring degree of change.#2) Measuring degree of change.

General conclusionsGeneral conclusionsAbsoluteAbsolute• Although Zimbabwe makes Although Zimbabwe makes

seems to improve seems to improve significantly, this may be due significantly, this may be due to worsening conditions to worsening conditions related to HIV/AIDS related to HIV/AIDS infections.infections.

• Most of the nations making Most of the nations making significant progress could be significant progress could be described as newly-described as newly-industrialized. industrialized.

• Unfortunately, Nigeria which Unfortunately, Nigeria which is facing many problems is is facing many problems is also one of the nations also one of the nations making the least progress. making the least progress. This does not suggest future This does not suggest future improvements.improvements.

RelativeRelative• First world nations such First world nations such

as Italy and Japan will be as Italy and Japan will be facing significant crisis as facing significant crisis as these nations being the these nations being the process of depopulation.process of depopulation.

• China continues to China continues to improve its population improve its population outlook, although labour outlook, although labour shortages may result.shortages may result.

• Although nations such a Although nations such a India and Egypt will see India and Egypt will see improvements in their improvements in their population numbers, population numbers, Nigeria will face a difficult Nigeria will face a difficult future as its population future as its population will increase only slightly will increase only slightly less rapidly than at less rapidly than at present. present.

““There are three kinds of lies: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and lies, damned lies, and statistics.” (unknown)statistics.” (unknown)

Be careful of the statistics you Be careful of the statistics you use and how you use them.use and how you use them.

Just as importantly, be aware of Just as importantly, be aware of how others are using statistics.how others are using statistics.