Rapid Evaluation of ASW Risk

John Moore Principal Consultant, CORDA Ltd

Dave Lewis DD(Capability), DEC(UWE)

© CORDA Ltd 2004. All rights reserved

2

Overview

1 The Need for ASW Risk Assessment

2 Modelling Approach

3 The Dynamic ASW Risk Model (DARM)

4 Current Status & Way Ahead

1. The Need for ASW Risk Assessment

My concern overall is that we are taking risk on risk’

First Sea Lord (Adm Sir Alan West), August 2004

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The Exam Question

‘A high-level appreciation of the [operational] risk that we are taking in ASW’

– Current and future– Maritime deployment and access– Moderate threat levels

Source: CM(SD), November 2003

(adapted)

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Capability Assessment: ‘Traffic Light’ Output

NB All data shown are hypothetical

2001

2005?

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ASW Risk Assessment

The real-world consequences...

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ASW Risk Assessment

How unlucky was that ?

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Capability and Risk Assessment

Capability Assessment

Spans all capability areas

Includes peacetime and non-warfighting scenarios

Potentially subjective

Capabilities assessed individually

Low resolution

Mission Risk Assessment

Addresses a specific warfare area

Covers only warfighting scenarios

Rigorous and verifiable

Single, coherent assessment of risk

High resolution

Techniques are complementary

2. ASW Risk - Modelling Approach

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ASW Risk Assessment - The Requirement

Require fast response– rapid processing of large number of options and

sensitivity cases

Flexible and versatile– process spans all types of ASW mission

Scenario-level model– covers full duration of scenario

Maximum use of existing models and data

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ASW Risk Modelling - Generic ASW Campaign

Area ASW

Threat

TG

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ASW Risk Modelling - Solution

Analytic spreadsheet model

‘Level 1’ model – represent ASW encounters with parameterised

encounter rates & outcomes

‘Level 2’ models– screening model– area & barrier search

Draw on legacy data wherever possible

3. ASW Risk - The Dynamic ASW Risk Model (DARM)

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DARM - Key Concepts

Generic Units– ‘threats’ (hostile) v ‘task units (TU)’ (friendly)– TUs represent both ‘hunters’ and targets

Random encounters– parameterised encounter rates

Scenario evolves with time– campaign divided into up to 8 periods– assets can arrive, leave or change mission at start of

each period

Up to 8 Analysis Cases in one application

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DARM - Example Scenario

Blue– CVBG arrives D+7– RoRo (unescorted) arrives every 2 days from D+7– ASW TG does precursor ops to D+6, then joins CVBG– MPA search from D+0

Red– SSK 1 on station until D+13– SSK 2 on station from D+7– tasked against both CVBG and RoRo vessels

variant: RoRo vessels only

NB All data shown are hypothetical

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DARM - Measures of Effectiveness

Each MoE measures losses to a different combination of TU types

‘Critical loss level’ defined for each MoE– risk defined as probability of losses equalling or exceeding critical loss

level

NB All data shown are hypothetical

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DARM - Level 2 Screening Model

Encounter

Threat detects with advantage TU detects with advantage

TUevades

TU does not evade

Threat classified before FCS

Threatattacks

Threatprosecuted

Threatkilled

Torpedo defence

Threatescapes

Threatlocalised

TU losses

Threatattacks

Torpedo defence

TU losses

Threatkilled

Threat killedafter attack

Threatescapes Threat killed

after attackThreat

escapes

Threat localised

Threatprosecuted

Threat not classifiedbefore FCS

Threatescapes

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DARM Output: Analysis Case Results

‘Kinks’ in the loss curves are due to arrivals and departures of threats and TUs

NB All data shown are hypothetical

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DARM Output: Risk Table

NB All data shown are hypothetical

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DARM Output: Risk Chart

Critical risk level

NB All data shown are hypothetical

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DARM - Verification & Validation

Verification by QineiQ Ltd (January 2004)– mathematical correctness– response properties

Validation issues:– key assumptions embedded in data– data drawn mainly from COEIA/Business Cases– Data & Assumptions review in preparation

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4. Current Status and Way Ahead

DARM demonstrates real-world impact of savings and

enhancement options

Initial applications:

– Risk assessments for high-level decision-making

– ASW concepts studies

Plans:

– complete Level 2 models

– create Data & Assumptions paper

– Cap Audit validation

Rapid Evaluation of ASW Risk

End of Presentation

© CORDA Ltd 2004. All rights reserved