Rapid assessment of future impacts on marine assets in Milne Bay, Papua New Guinea

Tim Skewes, James Butler, Vincent Lyne, David Brewer Climate Adaptation Flagship 30th June 2010

Melanesia challenge

•  Context •  Rapid rate of change in drivers (human population growth,

climate change, deforestation) •  Livelihood dependence on marine assets •  High global marine biodiversity values •  Complex marine systems •  Limited data and capacity in government •  Little integrated natural resource and livelihoods planning •  Coral Triangle Initiative

•  Urgent need for rapid vulnerability assessments •  Based on limited data •  Appropriate resolution for government

Melanesian coastal and marine ecosystem assets

Case study in Milne Bay, PNG

Milne Bay

•  250,000 people •  High population growth (2.7% p.a.) •  85% customary land ownership •  Low per capita income •  Heavy reliance on marine and coastal environment

Asset-threat interaction

Exposure + Sensitivity

Potential impact

Threat profile Asset profile

Adaptation options

Interaction model

Residual impact

Weighted impact

Participatory

Expert driven

Climate threats

Applying regional A1 projection data:

•  Temperature, SST •  2030: +1 deg C; 2100: +3 deg C

•  Ocean acidification •  2030: very small; 2100: -0.25 pH

•  Sea level rise •  2030: +10 cm; 2100: +40 cm

•  Currents patterns •  2030: +5%; 2100: +10%

•  Storms and Cyclones •  2030: small increase; 2100: moderate increase

•  Phytoplankton productivity •  2030: +50%-100%; 2100: +100%-150%

•  Rainfall •  2030: ?; 2100: overall +30% but dryer winters

Melanesian coastal and marine ecosystem assets: AusAID

Potential impacts for Milne Bay, 2030

Melanesian coastal and marine ecosystem assets: AusAID

Potential impacts for Milne Bay, 2100

Sustainable Futures for Milne Bay

Milne Bay subregions

Melanesian coastal and marine ecosystem assets

Downscaling future SST changes - Bluelink

Melanesian coastal and marine ecosystem assets

Coral reefs: interaction map

Spatial results: subregions

Sustainable Futures for Milne Bay

Subregion name

Potential impact 2030

Weighted impact 2030

Potential impact 2100

Weighted impact 2100

Milne Bay -0.28 -0.24 -0.47 -0.42 Misima -0.23 -0.19 -0.42 -0.34 Dawson -0.22 -0.22 -0.41 -0.41 Trobriand -0.20 -0.20 -0.42 -0.42 Northern Owen-Stanley -0.19 -0.15 -0.35 -0.29 Collingwood Bay -0.19 -0.13 -0.37 -0.26 Southern Owen-Stanley -0.18 -0.15 -0.36 -0.29 Samarai -0.18 -0.18 -0.35 -0.35 Woodlark -0.18 -0.18 -0.37 -0.37 Louisiade Archipelago -0.16 -0.18 -0.33 -0.39 Pocklington -0.10 -0.10 -0.20 -0.20 Coral Sea -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 Louisiade Basin -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 Trobriand Trough -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 Woodlark Basin -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02

Applications for integrated planning

•  Catalyst for integrated natural resource management, livelihoods and adaptation planning

•  Support tool for scenario planning

•  Options for validating model with local knowledge of marine assets and their weighted values

Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176

Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

Thank you

CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship

Timothy Skewes

James Butler

Phone: (07) 38267181 Email: tim.skewes@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au/science/MCBM.html