Rand Paul, a Social Analytics review of the Primaries

8/9/2019 Rand Paul, a Social Analytics review of the Primaries

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1.RandPaul

LessonsfromtheSenateprimaryelectionsinKentucky

XurxoMartnez

MEDIA,MONEY&METRICS

MCDMSpring2010


2/11

TableofContents

SUMMARYANDRECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................... 3Summary................................................ ................................................................. ............................................... 3Methodology ............................................................. ................................................................. .......................... 3Conclusions..................... ................................................................. ................................................................. .... 3Recommendations ............................................................. ................................................................. ............... 3Additionalinformation............................................................... ................................................................. .... 4Colorcode ........................................................ ................................................................ ..................................... 4

HOWTHEPRIMARYELECTIONSWORKED............................................................... 5

WHERETHECONVERSATIONTOOKPLACE.............................................................. 6

INFLUENCERS ......................................................................................................... 8

THEROADTONOVEMBERELECTIONS .................................................................... 9

FOURBRANDSTOSELLRANDPAUL...................................................................... 11


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SUMMARYANDRECOMMENDATIONS

SummaryThe following report analyzes the Republican and Democratic primaries for theSenate in Kentucky, looking at the repercussion of the candidates in both social andtraditional media. The repercussion was measured in terms of both volume andsentiment. We also try to establish which will be the main topics during theNovember elections, when the republican candidate, Rand Paul, will face thedemocrat Jack Conway. The final goal is to make a series of recommendations thathelp Paul to outperform his rival in both measures.

MethodologyFor this analysis we have basically used the social media monitoring platformRadian6, which also includes data from forums and mainstream media sites.

The other only tool used was the New York Times Article Trender.

The period of time analyzed goes from May the 4th to June the 1st, 2010. That

represents two weeks before and after the day of the primaries. That day, for boththe Republican and Democratic parties, was May the 18th.

Conclusions- Rand Paul was, by far, the main protagonist of the Kentucky primaries.

- The conversation was bigger at a national level than at a Kentucky level.- Paul talks more about national issues and Conway more on Kentucky.- Overall, blogs were the type of source with higher volume of posts on the

different candidates. On the day of the elections Twitter had the most activity.- The sentiment related to Paul is more positive than the related to Conway.- The main influencers are more negative about Paul than the average user of

social media sites or mainstream publication.

- Rand Paul controls good part of the conversation in Twitter and Forums.- The Tea Party movement has a higher percentage of positive sentiment than

the whole Republican Party itself.

Recommendations- Paul should try to be the focus of the campaign, as he did in the primaries.

The exposition in the media gives him a higher profile.

- Is important to get more positive comments specifically from the sourcesidentified as main influencers, and, in general, from blogs.

- Talk about national issues gives Rand Paul more attention. Even if the

election will be held in Kentucky, is for a national position. Also talk aboutthese topics is what makes Paul attractive for the national media.

- Paul should try to be related to the Tea Party, but avoid to be identified as

Libertarian.- He should make completely clear his position on the Civil Rights Act, as it is

the most talked-about issue of the weeks after the primaries.- As Twitter is the friendliest source for Paul, he should try to engage there with

his fan base and generate conversation during the campaign, not only theday of the election.

- The main Twitter influencer, directly related to the Rand Paul campaign,should be less neutral and more positive about the candidate.


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Additionalinformation- The Democratic Party selected Jack Conway as Senate candidate. He was

also proclaimed on the 18th but his rivals quitted before that day.- Rand Paul rival for the Republican nomination was Trey Grayson.

- We will look at Paul, Conway, and Grayson data in order to state what wasthe reaction from two weeks before the primaries and the day of the election.Then we will focus just on Paul and Conway.

ColorcodeThe subjects

- Rand Paul will be represented by the color green.- The color blue will represent Jack Conway, the Democrat candidate.- Trey Grayson, who lost the primary elections to Rand Paul, will be

represented by the color red.

Sentiment- Black will represent negative sentiment.

- Different tones of grey will represent mixed and somewhat negativesentiment.

- Other colors will represent positive sentiment. In the case of the politicians,positive sentiment will be represented by their colorsee before.


5/11

HOWTHEPRIMARYELECTIONSWORKED

RandPaulwasthemainprotagonistoftheprimaries,intermsofsocialandmainstream

mediapresence,shadowingbothhisrivalintheGOPTreyGraysonandthefutureDemocratcandidatetotheSenate,JackConway.

- MostofthepoststhatmentionConwayorGraysonalsomentionPaul.Thenext

tableshowsthenumberofpostswhereonlyoneofthecandidatesare

mentioned(sopostsonGraysonwherePaulisnotmentioned)

RandPaul JackConway TreyGrayson

Postsonlyonthem 15,566 1,983 880

- Thefollowinggraphicshowsthedistributionofthesentimentexcludingthe

neutralforthethreepoliticians.Blackrepresentsnegativesentiment,each

candidatescolorrepresentsthepositive;andtherangeofgrey,mixedor

somewhatnegative.Paulistheonewhogeneratesmorevariedsentiments.


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WHERETHECONVERSATIONTOOKPLACE- Themainconversationtookplaceinblogs,mainstreammedia,andTwitter

- ButmostofTwitterpoststookplaceduringthedayoftheprimaryelections.


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- ThistellsusthatTwitterwasusedmoreasawayofsharingthelatestnews

regardingthiselection.Followingdayswhileblogsdrovetheconversationon

thefollowingdays,probablythroughpersonalcommentsoranalysisofthe

candidatesandtheresults.

- ThesourcewhereRandPaulgetsahigherpercentageofpositivepostsis

Twitter.Inthefollowingthreegraphicstheneutralsentimenthasbeenremoved

(itwasaround75%inallthreeofthem).

- SomethingsimilarhappenswithhisrivalinNovember,JackConway.Hegetsa

higherpercentageofnegativeposts,andseemstohaveproblemsobtaining

positivementionsinmainstreamnewssites.Intheseexamplestheneutral

sentimentisbetween73and77%andhasbeeneliminatedtoo.


8/11

INFLUENCERS

- Thefollowingtableshowsthemaininfluencersregardingthetwocandidates

Paul,andConwayandtheSenateelectioninKentuckyitself.WehaveincludedthefivehighlightedbyRadian6infactfour,becauseHuffingtonPostwas

repeatedandaddedtheothertwomaininfluencersforblogs,newssites,and

Twitter.Fortheseteninfluencerswevecheckedtheirtenmostrelevantposts

andidentifiedtheirsentimentonRandPaul .

Source Name Postsontopic Positive Neutral Negative

News HuffingtonPost 40 0 6 4

Blog ThinkProgress 19 1 5 4

News PageOneKentucky 117 1 6 3

Blog TalkingPointsMemo 22 4 2 4

Twitter @RonPaulForums 49 0 10 0Blog BarefootandProgressive 78 0 6 4

News TheCaucus(NYT) 20 0 5 5

Twitter @downwithtyranny 33 0 9 1

Blog SwingStateProject 41 0 5 5

News CNNPoliticalTicker 56 1 5 4

TOTALSENTIMENTSCOREONRANDPAUL 7 59 34

- WhileinaveragethenegativesentimentonPaulisthreetimeshigherthanthe

positive,amongthemaininfluencersisalmostfivetimeshigher.

- Inbothtwitter@RonPaulForumsandforumsRandPaul2010,RandPaul-relatedoutfitsarealreadythemostinfluential.

- OnlyoneofthetenmaininfluencersPageOneKentuckyisalocalone.The

restareallnationwidesitesorusers.


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THEROADTONOVEMBERELECTIONS

Thisgraphshowsthenumberofpostsonthemaintopics,startingthedayafter

theprimaryelections.ThesearethethemesthatwilllikelyarticulatethecampaignbetweenPaulandConway.

- Thewordcloudfrombothcandidatesshowssimilarresults.Theonerelatedto

RandPaulhasmorenationaltermsi.e.Obama,civilrightact,USAwhileJackConwaysoneismorefocusedonKentuckyi.e.Louisville,states,.


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- OneproofthatRandPaulspresenceisbringingmorenationwideattentionto

thisKentuckyelectionisthenumberofmentionsinarticlespublishedbya

publicationsuchasTheNewYorkTimes

SourceNewYorkTimesArticleTrender


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FOURBRANDSTOSELLRANDPAUL

-ThisisthesentimentforthedifferentnamesRepublicanParty,GOPofthepolitical

partyRandPaulrepresents,andtwomovementsTeaPartyandLibertariansheisrelatedto.Again,blackmeansnegativegreymixedorsomewhatnegative,andthe

livecolorpositive.

Documents

Rand Paul, a Social Analytics review of the Primaries