Raising the Bar:Refocused Indicators for U.S.

Government Assistance to PakistanPrepared for:

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

By:Isaac EaganSenay GoitomSantosh LamichhanePaige MuegenburgNatalie Olson

2

Team MembersIsaac Eagan Santosh Lamichhane Senay

Goitom

Paige Muegenburg Natalie Olson

Executive Summary

• The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act outlined a new, whole-of-nation approach for U.S. government aid to Pakistan.

• Clear, focused indicators are needed to measure the effectiveness of this new approach.

• We propose 23 indicators measuring progress in security, political/economic, and social services assistance.

3

U.S. Government Aid to Pakistan

From FY2002 - FY2010U.S. provided ~ $11 billion in aid

– $7 billion in civilian aid• $4.3 billion in economic and political aid• $2.7 billion in social services aid

– $4.4 billion in security related aid

4

Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act (EPPA)

• Signed into law in 2009• Authorizes $7.5 billion in civilian aid from

FY2010 – FY2014– Effectively triples amount of civilian aid

5

U.S. Government Aid to Pakistan

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

177 258 113 349 398 396 517989 1,232626 223

251329 376 500 377

802868

2851

45

59 163 76 130

804

1,299

Social Services (Including Disaster Assistance)

Economic and Political

Security Related

Fiscal Year

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs

6

The Issue

• We need to ensure that adequate measures are in place to assess this new strategy in Pakistan.

7

How We Assessed Aid Effectiveness

• Determined the primary goals of the U.S. government for each aid category.

• Selected indicators based on the following questions:– How applicable is the indicator to the stated goal?– How quantifiable is the indicator?– Are there existing data, or is it feasible that data

could be easily collected?– Is there scholarly evidence to support the

effectiveness of the indicator? 8

How We Developed Our Indicators

We examined those outlined by:– 2010 Quarterly Progress and Oversight Report on

the Civilian Assistance Program in Pakistan – Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)– State Department/USAID’s Standard Foreign

Assistance Indicators– Alternate governmental, non-governmental, and

academic sources

9

Security-related Goals

• Disruption of internal extremist activities• Increased security along the Afghanistan-

Pakistan border• Improvements in nuclear weapons

containment

10

Security-related Indicators

11

Goals Indicators

Disruption of Internal Extremist Activities

Number of Violent Extremist Incidents

Extremist Organization Membership Estimates

Increased Security along the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border

Attempted Illegal Crossings

Attempted Drug Flow

Improvements In Nuclear Weapons Containment

ACA Report Card Scores

ITDB Incidents

Political Goals

• Improving Local Governance Capacity• Strengthening Electoral Institutions• Strengthening Civil Society

12

Political Indicators

13

Goals Indicators

Improving Local Governance Capacity

Percentage of Targeted Municipalities that Make Decisions Based on Joint

Planning Boards

Percentage of Citizens that Express Confidence in LocalGovernment

StrengtheningElectoral Institutions Political Rights

StrengtheningCivil Society

Number of Civil Society Organizations Receiving U.S.-Assisted Training in

Advocacy

Civil Society Index

Economic Goals• Increasing Performance in Agriculture Sector– 21 percent of Pakistan’s GDP– employs 43 percent of its total labor force– 90 percent of water earmarked for agricultural use (1/3 of

which is wasted)

• Improving Performance in Energy Sector– Loss of industrial productivity due to frequent energy

shortfalls and blackouts are estimated to cost $2.5 billion and 400,000 jobs per year

– Manufacturing and industrial sectors account for 24 percent of Pakistan's GDP

14

Economic IndicatorsGoals Indicators

Increasing Performance in Agriculture Sector

Adjusted Agricultural Yield

Number of Farmers Adopting New Technologies/Management Practices as a Result of U.S. Assistance

Number of Additional Hectares under Improved Technologies/Management Practices as a Result of U.S. Assistance.

Improving Performance in Energy Sector

Additional Megawatt Capacity Constructed/Rehabilitated as a result of U.S. Assistance

Cumulative Number of Households with Electricity as a Result of U.S. Assistance.

Percent Change in Load Shedding—Cutting off Poweron Certain Lines when Demand Exceeds Supply

15

Social Services Goals

• Improve Education– Universal access to public, modernized education – Construction and maintenance of libraries and public schools – Increased vocational and technical training for at-risk youth – Increased opportunities for women and girls– Increased female literacy

• Improve Public Health– Reduce and eliminate major infectious diseases– Reduce maternal mortality and mortality under age five – Provide safe drinking water– Meet family planning needs

16

Social Services Indicators

17

Goals Indicators

Improve Education

Girls’ Primary Education Completion Rate

Primary Education Net Enrollment Rate

Improve Health

Immunization Rate

Access to Improved Drinking Water

Child Mortality

Contraceptive Prevalence Rate

Conclusion

• Limitations–Aid measurement challenges–Availability of information– Lag time in results

• Clear, focused framework to measure progress

18

Questions?

19

For further informationContact the La Follette School’s publications office at 608-263-7657 or publications@lafollette.wisc.edu

Or see www.lafollette.wisc.edu/publications/workshops.html

Thank you