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33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
Paw
ełK
raje
wsk
i(E
MR
AS
Iodi
ne W
orki
ng G
roup
Lea
der)
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p 3
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p 3
The
Ch
ern
obyl
I-1
31
rel
ease
:mod
el v
alid
atio
n a
nd
asse
ssm
ent
of t
he
cou
nte
rmea
sure
eff
ecti
ven
ess
wor
kin
g gr
oup
TH
EM
E 1
: Rad
ioac
tive
Rel
ease
Ass
essm
ent
2
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
**su
pport
ed b
y org
anis
atio
ns
from
Can
ada,
Spai
n a
nd
Sw
eden
.
Back
gro
un
d
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
IWG
cont
inue
sso
me
of t
he m
ore
trad
ition
al w
ork
of t
he p
revi
ous
inte
rnat
iona
l pr
ogra
mm
es t
hat
have
bee
n ai
med
at i
ncre
asin
g co
nfid
ence
in
m
etho
dsan
d m
odel
s fo
r th
e as
sess
men
t of
ra
diat
ion
expo
sure
rela
ted
to th
e en
viro
nmen
tal r
elea
ses.
the
IAEA
’sV
alid
atio
n o
f M
odel
Pre
dict
ion
s (V
AM
P)
the
IAEA
’sB
IOM
OV
S
the
BIO
MO
VS
II**
(Bio
sph
eric
Mod
el V
alid
atio
n S
tudy
)
the
IAEA
’s B
IOM
ASS
(B
IOsp
her
eM
odel
ling
and
ASS
essm
ent)
term
inat
ed in
200
1
3
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
act
ivit
y o
f th
e I
WG
act
ivit
y o
f th
e I
WG
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
•to
test
an
d c
om
pare
mo
dels
’ p
red
icti
on
s w
ith
real en
vir
on
men
tal d
ata
•to
inte
rco
mp
are
mo
dellin
g a
pp
roach
es
an
d
mo
del p
red
icti
on
s am
on
g s
evera
l ass
ess
ors
en
vir
on
men
tal m
od
ellin
g e
xerc
ises
on
rad
ioio
din
een
vir
on
men
tal m
od
ellin
g e
xerc
ises
on
rad
ioio
din
e
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
4
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
majo
r are
as
of
em
ph
asi
s:
•• im
pro
vem
en
t o
f m
od
els
pre
dic
tio
ns
acc
ura
cy b
y id
en
tifi
cati
on
th
eim
pro
vem
en
t o
f m
od
els
pre
dic
tio
ns
acc
ura
cy b
y id
en
tifi
cati
on
th
em
ost
im
po
rtan
t so
urc
es
of
bia
s an
d u
nce
rtain
tym
ost
im
po
rtan
t so
urc
es
of
bia
s an
d u
nce
rtain
ty
•• im
ple
men
tati
on
of
new
mo
dellin
g p
roce
du
res
imp
lem
en
tati
on
of
new
mo
dellin
g p
roce
du
res
sup
po
rted
by c
urr
en
t st
ate
of
kn
ow
led
ge
sup
po
rted
by c
urr
en
t st
ate
of
kn
ow
led
ge
ab
ou
t p
roce
sses
an
d
ab
ou
t p
roce
sses
an
d
ph
en
om
en
ap
hen
om
en
a
main
targ
ets
of
IWG
•• ch
eck
mo
dels
perf
orm
an
ce i
n d
ose
reco
nst
ruct
ion
in
case
wh
en
ch
eck
mo
dels
perf
orm
an
ce i
n d
ose
reco
nst
ruct
ion
in
case
wh
en
13
71
37C
s C
s ((1
29
12
9I)
tra
cer
is u
sed
fo
r est
imati
on
of
I) t
race
r is
use
d f
or
est
imati
on
of
13
11
31I
dep
osi
tio
n
I d
ep
osi
tio
n
•• ch
eck
mo
dels
ap
plica
bilit
y t
o c
ou
nte
rmeasu
re r
esp
on
sech
eck
mo
dels
ap
plica
bilit
y t
o c
ou
nte
rmeasu
re r
esp
on
se
un
cert
ain
tyu
nce
rtain
ty?,
l?,
lim
itati
on
imit
ati
on
?,
?,
req
uest
ed
in
pu
tre
qu
est
ed
in
pu
td
ata
?d
ata
?
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
5
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
nu
mero
us
rep
ort
s h
ave c
on
firm
ed
an
in
creasi
ng
nu
mb
er
of
case
s o
nu
mero
us
rep
ort
s h
ave c
on
firm
ed
an
in
creasi
ng
nu
mb
er
of
case
s o
f f th
yro
id c
an
cer,
part
icu
larl
y in
th
e m
ost
heavily c
on
tam
inate
d r
eth
yro
id c
an
cer,
part
icu
larl
y in
th
e m
ost
heavily c
on
tam
inate
d r
eg
ion
s g
ion
s o
f U
kra
ine a
nd
Bela
rus,
bu
t als
o in
Ru
ssia
of
Ukra
ine a
nd
Bela
rus,
bu
t als
o in
Ru
ssia
the
conf
iden
t re
cons
truc
tion
of
the
aver
age
and
the
conf
iden
t re
cons
truc
tion
of
the
aver
age
and
pers
onal
thy
roid
dos
e in
aff
ecte
d ar
eas
is r
equi
red:
pers
onal
thy
roid
dos
e in
aff
ecte
d ar
eas
is r
equi
red:
••to
co
nfi
rm t
he s
peci
al m
ed
ical aid
to
th
e p
op
ula
tio
n a
nd
to
co
nfi
rm t
he s
peci
al m
ed
ical aid
to
th
e p
op
ula
tio
n a
nd
measu
res
of
soci
al
pro
tect
ion
measu
res
of
soci
al
pro
tect
ion
••tt o
pro
vid
e in
form
ati
on
fo
r th
e p
ub
lic
an
d t
he a
uth
ori
ties
o p
rovid
e in
form
ati
on
fo
r th
e p
ub
lic
an
d t
he a
uth
ori
ties
an
d e
nsu
re e
pid
em
iolo
gic
al in
vest
igati
on
s.an
d e
nsu
re e
pid
em
iolo
gic
al in
vest
igati
on
s.
AD
DIT
ION
AL A
SP
EC
T O
F I
WG
AC
TIV
ITY
AD
DIT
ION
AL A
SP
EC
T O
F I
WG
AC
TIV
ITY
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
6
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
••u
nce
rtain
tyu
nce
rtain
ty?,
l?,
lim
itati
on
imit
ati
on
??
the q
uan
tita
tive r
ela
tio
nsh
ip b
etw
een
rad
iati
on
do
se t
o
the q
uan
tita
tive r
ela
tio
nsh
ip b
etw
een
rad
iati
on
do
se t
o
the t
hyro
id f
rom
Ch
ern
ob
yl an
d t
he r
isk o
f th
yro
id c
an
cer.
the t
hyro
id f
rom
Ch
ern
ob
yl an
d t
he r
isk o
f th
yro
id c
an
cer.
tt he u
nce
rtain
ty c
om
bin
ed
wit
h i
nd
ivid
ual
est
imate
s of
he u
nce
rtain
ty c
om
bin
ed
wit
h i
nd
ivid
ual
est
imate
s of
rad
iati
on
do
se c
on
stit
ute
s a c
ruci
al p
oin
t in
est
ab
lish
ing
ra
dia
tio
n d
ose
co
nst
itu
tes
a c
ruci
al p
oin
t in
est
ab
lish
ing
th
is r
ela
tio
nsh
ip,
sin
ce,
an
y r
ele
ase
of
rad
ioio
din
e in
to
this
rela
tio
nsh
ip,
sin
ce,
an
y r
ele
ase
of
rad
ioio
din
e in
to
en
vir
on
men
t cr
eate
s w
ide r
an
ge o
f u
nce
rtain
ty f
or
en
vir
on
men
t cr
eate
s w
ide r
an
ge o
f u
nce
rtain
ty f
or
inte
rnal
do
se a
ssess
men
ts.
inte
rnal
do
se a
ssess
men
ts.
case
–con
trol
stu
dies
of
thyr
oid
canc
er
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
7
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
majo
r so
urc
es
of
the u
nce
rtain
tym
ajo
r so
urc
es
of
the u
nce
rtain
ty::
••sm
all
nu
mb
er
an
d p
oo
r q
uality
of
thyro
id m
easu
rem
en
ts
small
nu
mb
er
an
d p
oo
r q
uality
of
thyro
id m
easu
rem
en
ts
perf
orm
ed
aft
er
Ch
ern
ob
yl acc
iden
tp
erf
orm
ed
aft
er
Ch
ern
ob
yl acc
iden
t
••d
iffi
cult
ies
in e
valu
ati
on
an
d v
alid
ati
on
of
the d
yn
am
ic o
f th
e
dif
ficu
ltie
s in
evalu
ati
on
an
d v
alid
ati
on
of
the d
yn
am
ic o
f th
e
13
11
31I
inta
kes
fun
ctio
n in
to a
hu
man
bo
dy b
ase
d o
n s
pars
e (
sin
gle
I
inta
kes
fun
ctio
n in
to a
hu
man
bo
dy b
ase
d o
n s
pars
e (
sin
gle
po
int)
in
div
idu
al th
yro
id m
easu
rem
en
ts a
nd
po
int)
in
div
idu
al th
yro
id m
easu
rem
en
ts a
nd
lack
of
lack
of
mil
k
mil
k
sam
ple
s in
earl
y p
eri
od
s o
f acc
iden
tsa
mp
les
in e
arl
y p
eri
od
s o
f acc
iden
t ..
••la
rge v
ari
ety
in
in
hab
itan
ts b
eh
avio
ur
an
d a
gri
cult
ura
l p
ract
ice
larg
e v
ari
ety
in
in
hab
itan
ts b
eh
avio
ur
an
d a
gri
cult
ura
l p
ract
ice
s s
(th
e t
ime w
hen
co
ws
had
been
pu
t o
n a
fre
sh p
ast
ure
) h
ave
(th
e t
ime w
hen
co
ws
had
been
pu
t o
n a
fre
sh p
ast
ure
) h
ave
con
sid
era
ble
im
pact
on
do
ses
vari
ab
ilit
y.
con
sid
era
ble
im
pact
on
do
ses
vari
ab
ilit
y.
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
8
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
Nece
ssit
y o
f p
erf
orm
ing
en
vir
on
men
tal m
od
ellin
g e
xerc
ises
?N
ece
ssit
y o
f p
erf
orm
ing
en
vir
on
men
tal m
od
ellin
g e
xerc
ises
?
Back
gro
un
d(c
on
t.)
Pre
dic
ted
th
yro
id d
ose
s to
th
e t
wo
Pre
dic
ted
th
yro
id d
ose
s to
th
e t
wo
child
ren
wit
h h
igh
milk c
on
sum
pti
on
ch
ild
ren
wit
h h
igh
milk c
on
sum
pti
on
ra
ng
ed
fro
m 0
.00
6 t
o 2
mS
vra
ng
ed
fro
m 0
.00
6 t
o 2
mS
v
Co
mp
en
sato
ry e
ffect
s (a
hig
h p
red
icti
on
in
on
e m
od
el co
mp
art
men
tC
om
pen
sato
ry e
ffect
s (a
hig
h p
red
icti
on
in
on
e m
od
el co
mp
art
men
tb
ein
g
bein
g
off
set
by a
lo
wo
ffse
t b
y a
lo
wp
red
icti
on
in
an
oth
er
com
part
men
t)
pre
dic
tio
n in
an
oth
er
com
part
men
t)
Majo
r so
urc
es
of
un
cert
ain
ty in
th
is e
xerc
ise in
clu
de
Majo
r so
urc
es
of
un
cert
ain
ty in
th
is e
xerc
ise in
clu
de
::
•• atm
osp
heri
c tr
an
spo
rt (
wh
ich
cou
ld c
on
trib
ute
as
mu
ch a
s a f
act
oatm
osp
heri
c tr
an
spo
rt (
wh
ich
cou
ld c
on
trib
ute
as
mu
ch a
s a f
act
or
of
20
r o
f 2
0-- 5
0),
50
),
•• rep
rese
nta
tiven
ess
rep
rese
nta
tiven
ess
of
availab
le m
easu
rem
en
ts,
of
availab
le m
easu
rem
en
ts,
•• io
din
e s
peci
ati
on
, tr
eatm
en
t o
r n
eg
lect
of
iod
ine s
peci
ati
on
, tr
eatm
en
t o
r n
eg
lect
of
terr
ain
eff
ect
s,
terr
ain
eff
ect
s,
•• act
ual
con
sum
pti
on
an
d m
eta
boli
c ra
tes
act
ual
con
sum
pti
on
an
d m
eta
boli
c ra
tes
Sele
cted
con
clu
sio
ns
of
HA
NFO
RD
SC
EN
AR
IOS
ele
cted
con
clu
sio
ns
of
HA
NFO
RD
SC
EN
AR
IO(B
IOM
AS
S):
9
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
11ststC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
C
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
aat t
he A
genc
y H
eadq
uart
ers i
n V
ienn
a t t
he A
genc
y H
eadq
uart
ers i
n V
ienn
a
11 ––55
Sept
embe
rSe
ptem
ber ,,
200
200 3
3
22ndndC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
C
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
aat t
he A
genc
y H
eadq
uart
ers i
n V
ienn
a t t
he A
genc
y H
eadq
uart
ers i
n V
ienn
a
88 ––11
Nov
embe
r11
Nov
embe
r ,,20
0420
04
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
C
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
aat t
he A
genc
y H
eadq
uart
ers i
n V
ienn
a t t
he A
genc
y H
eadq
uart
ers i
n V
ienn
a
21
21 --
25 N
ovem
ber,
200
525
Nov
embe
r, 2
005
MIL
ES
TO
NE
SM
ILE
ST
ON
ES
22n
dn
dIW
G
IWG
Meeti
ng
M
eeti
ng
(h
eld
at
the C
IEM
AT
, M
ad
rid
, S
pain
, 3
1 M
ay t
o(h
eld
at
the C
IEM
AT
, M
ad
rid
, S
pain
, 3
1 M
ay t
o22
Jun
e 2
00
4)
Jun
e 2
00
4)
44thth
IWG
IW
G M
eeti
ng
M
eeti
ng
(h
eld
at
the H
ead
qu
art
ers
(held
at
the H
ead
qu
art
ers
of
the
of
the
Nati
on
al
Ato
mic
En
erg
y A
gen
cy P
AA
, N
ati
on
al
Ato
mic
En
erg
y A
gen
cy P
AA
, W
AR
SA
W,
PO
LA
ND
WA
RS
AW
, P
OLA
ND
, , 2
92
9-- 3
1 A
ug
ust
20
05
31
Au
gu
st 2
00
5))
11stst
IWG
IW
G M
eeti
ng
Meeti
ng
33rdrd
IWG
IW
G M
eeti
ng
Meeti
ng
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
pSu
mm
ary
55thth
IWG
IW
G M
eeti
ng
Meeti
ng
10
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
11stst
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
(1
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
(1
-- 5 S
ep
tem
ber
20
03
)5
Sep
tem
ber
20
03
)
develo
pd
evelo
pin
gin
gap
pro
pri
ate
sce
nari
os
for
mo
del vali
dati
on
ap
pro
pri
ate
sce
nari
os
for
mo
del vali
dati
on
aan
dn
dco
llect
collect
ing
ing
measu
rem
en
t d
ata
sets
measu
rem
en
t d
ata
sets
,,q
uality
qu
ality
check
check
ing
ing
of
inp
ut
an
d m
easu
rem
en
t d
ata
o
f in
pu
t an
d m
easu
rem
en
t d
ata
bbefo
re
efo
re
11stst
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
(1
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
(1
-- 5 S
ep
tem
ber
20
03
)5
Sep
tem
ber
20
03
)
Qu
est
ion
nair
e
Qu
est
ion
nair
e
to
to i
den
tify
part
icip
an
ts o
f p
ote
nti
al w
ork
ing
gro
up
iden
tify
part
icip
an
ts o
f p
ote
nti
al w
ork
ing
gro
up
to
to i
den
tify
su
itab
le d
ata
sets
an
d m
od
els
fo
r te
stin
gid
en
tify
su
itab
le d
ata
sets
an
d m
od
els
fo
r te
stin
g
9 m
odel
lers
9 m
odel
lers
10 s
cena
rios
prop
osal
s10
sce
nario
s pr
opos
als
en
d o
f Ja
nu
ary
20
04
en
d o
f Ja
nu
ary
20
04
the S
cen
ari
oth
e S
cen
ari
oP
lavsk
Pla
vsk
was
evalu
ate
d a
nd
dis
trib
ute
d a
mon
g t
he
was
evalu
ate
d a
nd
dis
trib
ute
d a
mon
g t
he
part
icip
an
ts t
og
eth
er
wit
h p
red
icti
on
form
ula
ries
(in
Exce
l fi
lep
art
icip
an
ts t
og
eth
er
wit
h p
red
icti
on
form
ula
ries
(in
Exce
l fi
le))
Th
e S
cen
ari
o is
als
o a
vail
ab
le o
n t
he E
MR
AS
WEB
SIT
E:
Th
e S
cen
ari
o is
als
o a
vail
ab
le o
n t
he E
MR
AS
WEB
SIT
E:
http
://w
ww
http
://w
ww
-- ns.ns. ia
eaia
ea.o
rg/p
roje
cts/
.org
/pro
ject
s/em
ras
emra
s //em
ras
emra
s --io
dine
iodi
ne-- 1
31131 --
wg
wg ..
htm
htm
MIL
ES
TO
NE
SM
ILE
ST
ON
ESEM
RA
S Io
din
e W
orki
ng
Gro
up
Sum
mar
y
11
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
MIL
ES
TO
NE
SM
ILE
ST
ON
ESEM
RA
S Io
din
e W
orki
ng
Gro
up
Sum
mar
y
12
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
2n
d M
eeti
ng
of
the
2n
d M
eeti
ng
of
the
IAE
A’s
IAE
A’s
EM
RA
S
IWG
E
MR
AS
IW
G
(held
at
the C
IEM
AT
, M
ad
rid
, S
pain
, 3
1 M
ay t
o(h
eld
at
the C
IEM
AT
, M
ad
rid
, S
pain
, 3
1 M
ay t
o22
Jun
e 2
00
4)
Jun
e 2
00
4)
99p
art
icip
an
ts s
en
t re
sult
s, t
og
eth
er
wit
h q
uest
ion
nair
e
part
icip
an
ts s
en
t re
sult
s, t
og
eth
er
wit
h q
uest
ion
nair
e
sum
mari
zed
ass
um
pti
on
s an
d u
sed
para
mete
rs.
sum
mari
zed
ass
um
pti
on
s an
d u
sed
para
mete
rs.
blin
d t
est
exerc
ise
blin
d t
est
exerc
ise
(wh
en
measu
rem
en
ts r
esu
lts
rem
ain
ed
un
kn
ow
n t
o
part
icip
an
ts)
an
d s
en
t re
sult
s b
efo
re
fro
m F
eb
ruary
to
May 2
00
4fr
om
Feb
ruary
to
May 2
00
4
Irin
aIr
ina
Zvo
no
wa
Zvo
no
wa
pro
vid
ed
th
e o
bse
rved
data
fo
r th
ep
rovid
ed
th
e o
bse
rved
data
fo
r th
eP
lavsk
Pla
vsk
reg
ion
.re
gio
n.
an
aly
sin
g p
red
icti
on
s vers
us
ob
serv
ed
data
an
aly
sin
g p
red
icti
on
s vers
us
ob
serv
ed
data
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
MIL
ES
TO
NE
SM
ILE
ST
ON
ESEM
RA
S Io
din
e W
orki
ng
Gro
up
Sum
mar
y
13
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
2n
d M
eeti
ng
of
the
2n
d M
eeti
ng
of
the
IAEA
’sIA
EA
’sEM
RA
S
IWG
EM
RA
S
IWG
(h
eld
at
the C
IEM
AT,
Mad
rid
, S
pain
, 3
1 M
ay t
o(h
eld
at
the C
IEM
AT,
Mad
rid
, S
pain
, 3
1 M
ay t
o22
Jun
e 2
00
4)
Jun
e 2
00
4)
MIL
ES
TO
NE
SM
ILE
ST
ON
ES
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
pSu
mm
ary
Th
e g
rou
p a
gre
ed
th
at
the f
irst
mo
del vali
dati
on
an
d in
terc
om
pari
son
exerc
ise
wil
l b
e c
arr
ied
in
20
04
usi
ng
th
eP
lavsk
Sce
nari
o.
Calc
ula
tio
ns
for
the W
ars
aw
sce
nari
o w
ill b
e d
ela
yed
un
til aft
er
the c
om
ple
tio
n o
f
the G
rou
p’s
wo
rk o
n t
he
Pla
vsk
Sce
nari
o.
evalu
ati
on
an
d d
iscu
ssio
n o
f re
sult
s o
f se
con
d r
un
pre
dic
tion
sevalu
ati
on
an
d d
iscu
ssio
n o
f re
sult
s o
f se
con
d r
un
pre
dic
tion
s
pre
para
tio
n o
f d
raft
Fin
al
pre
para
tio
n o
f d
raft
Fin
al
RRep
ort
ep
ort
intr
od
uct
ion
to
th
e W
ars
aw
sce
nari
oin
tro
du
ctio
n t
o t
he W
ars
aw
sce
nari
o
2n
d C
om
bin
ed
Meeti
ng
s o
f th
e I
AEA
2
nd
Co
mb
ined
Meeti
ng
s o
f th
e I
AEA
((EM
RA
S)
EM
RA
S)
88––
11
No
vem
ber
20
04
11
No
vem
ber
20
04
14
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
Jun
e
Jun
e ––
No
vem
ber
20
04
No
vem
ber
20
04
Th
e
Th
e R
ep
ort
Rep
ort
is a
lso
availab
le o
n t
he E
MR
AS
WEB
SIT
E:
is a
lso
availab
le o
n t
he E
MR
AS
WEB
SIT
E:
http
://w
ww
http
://w
ww
-- ns.ns. ia
eaia
ea.o
rg/p
roje
cts/
.org
/pro
ject
s/em
ras
emra
s //em
ras
emra
s --io
dine
iodi
ne-- 1
31131 --
wg
wg ..
htm
htm
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
p
MIL
ES
TO
NE
SM
ILE
ST
ON
ESEM
RA
S Io
din
e W
orki
ng
Gro
up
Sum
mar
y
15
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
Jun
e
Jun
e ––
No
vem
ber
20
04
No
vem
ber
20
04EM
RA
S Io
din
e W
orki
ng
Gro
up
MIL
ES
TO
NE
SM
ILE
ST
ON
ESEM
RA
S Io
din
e W
orki
ng
Gro
up
Sum
mar
y
16
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
dis
trib
uti
on
of
dis
trib
uti
on
of
the f
irst
th
e f
irst
dra
ft
dra
ft o
f of
Wars
aw
Sce
nari
oW
ars
aw
Sce
nari
o
en
d o
f en
d o
f Ju
ne
Jun
e 2
00
20
055
IWG
mIW
G m
eeti
ng
eeti
ng
29
2
9 ––
31
Au
gu
st 2
00
5,
Wars
aw
31
Au
gu
st 2
00
5,
Wars
aw
dis
cuss
ion
on
Wars
aw
Sce
nari
od
iscu
ssio
n o
n W
ars
aw
Sce
nari
o, ,
ad
dit
ion
al re
qu
ired
data
ad
dit
ion
al re
qu
ired
data
3rd
Co
mb
ined
3
rd C
om
bin
ed
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
:
EM
RA
S m
eeti
ng
:
IAE
A
IAE
A 2
12
1––
25
No
vem
ber
20
05
2
5 N
ovem
ber
20
05
--
Sep
tem
ber
Sep
tem
ber
--O
cto
ber
Oct
ob
er
--N
ovem
ber
No
vem
ber
20
05
20
05
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
pSu
mm
ary
MIL
ES
TO
NE
SM
ILE
ST
ON
ES
dis
clo
sin
g o
bse
rved
data
, evalu
ati
on
of
pre
dic
tion
s, I
WG
Rep
ort
dis
clo
sin
g o
bse
rved
data
, evalu
ati
on
of
pre
dic
tion
s, I
WG
Rep
ort
dis
trib
uti
on
of
revis
ed
vers
ion
of
SC
EN
AR
IO W
(d
raft
v2
.2)
dis
trib
uti
on
of
revis
ed
vers
ion
of
SC
EN
AR
IO W
(d
raft
v2
.2)
incl
ud
ing
th
e c
om
men
ts f
rom
part
icip
an
tsin
clu
din
g t
he c
om
men
ts f
rom
part
icip
an
ts
pre
lim
inary
ru
n o
f p
red
icti
on
sp
reli
min
ary
ru
n o
f p
red
icti
on
s
pre
sen
tati
on
of
new
PR
AG
UE S
CEN
AR
IOp
rese
nta
tio
n o
f n
ew
PR
AG
UE S
CEN
AR
IO
blin
d t
est
exerc
ise
blin
d t
est
exerc
ise
17
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
Fin
al
Fin
al
RRep
ort
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ay 2
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6 P
rag
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ay 2
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???
Evalu
ati
on
of
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02
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dis
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for
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en
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20
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18
33rdrdC
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ned
Mee
tings
of t
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Pro
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me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
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Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
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l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
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l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
Institu
te of
Radia
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eR
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ian
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66
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ame
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MO
DELS
MO
DELS
((participants)
19
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
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onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
PLA
VS
KP
LAV
SK
Sce
nari
oS
cena
rio
(Cher
nobyl
)Pr
imer
y pre
pare
d by
SEN
ES, (
desc
riptio
n, e
lectro
nicall
y ava
ilable
inpu
t dat
a)cu
stom
ised
for
IWG
by Ir
ina Z
wono
wa, P
aweł
Kraje
wski
•• mo
del valid
ati
on
mo
del valid
ati
on
pro
ble
mp
rob
lem
!!
reco
nst
ruct
ion
of
13
1I
dep
osi
tio
n u
sin
g 1
37C
s as
a t
race
r
•• sce
nari
o a
dvan
tag
es!
scen
ari
o a
dvan
tag
es!
nu
mero
us
measu
rem
en
ts o
f 1
31I
thyro
id c
on
ten
tsad
eq
uate
data
set
of
13
1I/
13
7C
s ra
tio in
so
il (
28
May 1
98
6)
••a n
ew
su
bje
ct
a n
ew
su
bje
ct t
otob
e v
alid
ate
d!
be v
alid
ate
d!
13
1I
thyro
id b
urd
en
fo
r n
ew
bo
rn a
nd
<3
m:
pro
cess
-tr
an
sfer
fact
or
fro
m m
oth
er
bre
ast
to
milk
PU
BLI
SH
ED
SC
EN
AR
IOS
PU
BLI
SH
ED
SC
EN
AR
IOS
20
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
131
131
I P
LAV
SK
I P
LAV
SK
Sce
nari
oS
cena
rio
(Cher
nobyl
)
en
d p
oin
ts c
on
sid
ere
d f
or
mo
del valid
ati
on
:en
d p
oin
ts c
on
sid
ere
d f
or
mo
del valid
ati
on
:
••1
31
13
1I
dep
osi
tio
n (
soil c
on
cen
trati
on
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dep
osi
tio
n (
soil c
on
cen
trati
on
)
••a t
ime d
ep
en
den
t a t
ime d
ep
en
den
t 1
31
13
1I
con
cen
trati
on
in
milk
I co
nce
ntr
ati
on
in
milk
in t
he p
eri
od
27
Ap
ril
–3
0 M
ay 1
98
6 f
or
18
milk f
arm
an
d T
ow
n P
lavsk
situ
ate
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t 1
31I
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osi
tio
nd
en
sity
••13
11
31I
thyro
id b
urd
en
fo
r d
iffe
ren
t ag
e g
rou
ps:
I th
yro
id b
urd
en
fo
r d
iffe
ren
t ag
e g
rou
ps:
for
urb
an
po
pu
lati
on
(P
lavsk
tow
n):
new
bo
rn,
1-2
, 3
-7,
8-1
2,
13
-17
, ad
ult
for
speci
fied
ru
ral
loca
tion
s:n
ew
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rn,
1-2
, 3
-7,
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2,
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-17
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ult
en
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on
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terc
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terc
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mm
itte
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s to
th
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id f
rom
in
gest
ion
reco
nst
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of
13
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air
co
nce
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fro
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co
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PU
BLI
SH
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SC
EN
AR
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PU
BLI
SH
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SC
EN
AR
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21
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
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ned
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tings
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Adi
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nR
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nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
131
131
I P
LAV
SK
I P
LAV
SK
Sce
nari
oS
cena
rio
(Cher
nobyl
)
22
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
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tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
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onm
enta
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g fo
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g fo
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Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
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23
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
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EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
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tings
of t
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EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
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g fo
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nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
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g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
24
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
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EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
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g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
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g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
25
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
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EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
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Adi
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nR
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nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
26
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
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Pro
gram
me
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nR
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nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
27
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
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EA
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gram
me
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nR
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nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
con
stan
t is
oto
pic
rati
o
con
stan
t is
oto
pic
rati
o 1
31
13
1I/I/
13
71
37C
s p
rovid
ed
by S
cen
ari
o
Cs
pro
vid
ed
by S
cen
ari
o P
lavsk
Pla
vsk
giv
es
an
g
ives
an
ap
pro
xim
ati
on
of
ap
pro
xim
ati
on
of
13
11
31I
con
tam
inati
on
of
foo
dI
con
tam
inati
on
of
foo
d-- c
hain
, h
ow
ever
chain
, h
ow
ever
inh
om
og
en
eo
us
inh
om
og
en
eo
us
13
71
37C
s d
ep
osi
tio
n a
nd
rela
tively
sh
ort
tim
e o
f ra
in d
uri
ng
C
s d
ep
osi
tio
n a
nd
rela
tively
sh
ort
tim
e o
f ra
in d
uri
ng
the c
lou
d p
ass
ag
e (
6 h
ou
rs)
ind
icate
s th
at
the r
ad
ioact
ive f
allo
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lou
d p
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e (
6 h
ou
rs)
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at
the r
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allo
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t ca
n
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lass
ifie
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s m
ixed
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ry&
wet)
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d in
th
is c
ase
a r
eg
ion
al ap
pb
e c
lass
ifie
d a
s m
ixed
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ry&
wet)
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d in
th
is c
ase
a r
eg
ion
al ap
pro
ach
ro
ach
sho
uld
be b
e a
pp
lied
to
dete
rmin
e m
ore
co
mp
lex r
ela
tio
nsh
ip b
etw
sho
uld
be b
e a
pp
lied
to
dete
rmin
e m
ore
co
mp
lex r
ela
tio
nsh
ip b
etw
een
een
1
31
13
1I
dep
osi
tio
n a
nd
I
dep
osi
tio
n a
nd
13
71
37C
s d
ep
osi
tio
n.
Cs
dep
osi
tio
n.
mo
del o
f g
rass
in
terc
ep
tio
n in
a c
ase
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mix
ed
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ry&
wet)
rad
ioio
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f g
rass
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terc
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tio
n in
a c
ase
of
mix
ed
(d
ry&
wet)
rad
ioio
din
e
din
e
fallo
ut
need
to
be c
are
fully c
on
sid
ere
d.
fallo
ut
need
to
be c
are
fully c
on
sid
ere
d.
Gen
era
l C
on
clu
sio
ns
fro
m
Gen
era
l C
on
clu
sio
ns
fro
m P
lavsk
Pla
vsk
Sce
nari
oS
cen
ari
o
28
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
Th
e
Th
e t
ime w
hen
co
ws
have b
een
pu
t o
n a
past
ure
tim
e w
hen
co
ws
have b
een
pu
t o
n a
past
ure
seem
s to
be t
he
seem
s to
be t
he
mo
st im
po
rtan
t fa
cto
r o
f m
iss
pre
dic
tio
ns
of
mo
st im
po
rtan
t fa
cto
r o
f m
iss
pre
dic
tio
ns
of
13
11
31I
con
cen
trati
on
in
mil
k a
nd
I
con
cen
trati
on
in
mil
k a
nd
co
nse
qu
en
tly in
gest
ion
do
ses.
co
nse
qu
en
tly in
gest
ion
do
ses.
In g
en
era
l, a
lth
ou
gh
IW
G w
as
dealin
g w
ith
are
as
of
ass
ess
men
t m
oIn
gen
era
l, a
lth
ou
gh
IW
G w
as
dealin
g w
ith
are
as
of
ass
ess
men
t m
od
ell
ing
d
ell
ing
fo
r w
hic
h t
he c
ap
ab
ilit
ies
are
no
t yet
well
est
ab
lish
ed
; th
ere
ifo
r w
hic
h t
he c
ap
ab
ilit
ies
are
no
t yet
well
est
ab
lish
ed
; th
ere
is
rem
ark
ab
ly
s re
mark
ab
ly
imp
rovem
en
t in
mo
dels
perf
orm
an
ceim
pro
vem
en
t in
mo
dels
perf
orm
an
ceco
mp
ari
ng
wit
h p
revio
us
com
pari
ng
wit
h p
revio
us
rad
ioio
din
e s
cen
ari
os.
Pre
dic
tio
ns
of
the v
ari
ou
s m
od
els
w
ere
wra
dio
iod
ine s
cen
ari
os.
Pre
dic
tio
ns
of
the v
ari
ou
s m
od
els
w
ere
wit
h in
a
ith
in
a
fact
or
of
thre
e o
f th
e o
bse
rvati
on
sfa
cto
r o
f th
ree o
f th
e o
bse
rvati
on
s,
dis
crep
an
cies
betw
een
th
e
, d
iscr
ep
an
cies
betw
een
th
e
est
imate
s o
f est
imate
s o
f avera
ge d
ose
s to
th
yro
idavera
ge d
ose
s to
th
yro
idp
rod
uce
d b
y m
ost
part
icip
an
t n
ot
pro
du
ced
by m
ost
part
icip
an
t n
ot
exce
ed
ed
exce
ed
ed
a
a f
act
or
of
ten
fact
or
of
ten
. .
Gen
era
l C
on
clu
sio
ns
fro
m
Gen
era
l C
on
clu
sio
ns
fro
m P
lavsk
Pla
vsk
Sce
nari
oS
cen
ari
o(c
on
t(c
on
t ))
29
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
PU
BLI
SH
ED
SC
EN
AR
IOS
PU
BLI
SH
ED
SC
EN
AR
IOS
131
131
I
I W
AR
SA
W S
CE
NA
RIO
W
AR
SA
W S
CE
NA
RIO
(Cher
nobyl
)(d
esc
rip
tio
n,
ele
ctro
nic
ally a
vailab
le in
pu
t d
ata
, an
d t
em
pla
tes
for
pre
dic
tio
ns)
ccru
cial
ruci
al
po
ints
fo
r m
od
el vali
dati
on
!p
oin
ts f
or
mo
del vali
dati
on
!
•eff
ect
iven
ess
of
thyro
id b
lock
ing
!
•in
ho
mo
gen
eo
us
13
1I
dep
osi
tio
n
en
d p
oin
ts c
on
sid
ere
d f
or
mo
del te
sten
d p
oin
ts c
on
sid
ere
d f
or
mo
del te
stin
gin
g::
•13
1I
con
cen
trati
on
in
milk
•13
1I
thyro
id b
urd
en
fo
r d
iffe
ren
t ag
e g
rou
ps
for
two
sp
eci
fied
lo
cati
on
eeff
ect
iven
ess
ffect
iven
ess
cou
nte
rmeasu
res
cou
nte
rmeasu
res
•ad
min
istr
ati
on
of
stab
le i
od
ine s
olu
tio
n (
inte
rvie
ws
DB
),•
lim
itati
on
of
fresh
mil
k c
on
sum
pti
on
(u
nce
rtain
data
),
•re
stri
ctio
n o
f co
ws
past
uri
ng
(u
nce
rtain
data
)
30
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
EMR
AS
Iodi
ne
Wor
kin
g G
rou
pSu
mm
ary
31
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
MA
ZOV
IAM
AZO
VIA
MA
ZOV
IAM
AZO
VIA
MA
ZOV
IAM
AZO
VIA
MA
ZOV
IAM
AZO
VIA
MA
ZOV
IA
27 0
4/12
26 0
4/12
26 0
4/12
26 0
4/12
26 0
4/12
26 0
4/12
26 0
4/12
26 0
4/12
26 0
4/12
26 0
4/12
27 04
/00
28 0
4/12
28 0
4/12
28 0
4/12
28 0
4/12
28 0
4/12
28 0
4/12
28 0
4/12
28 0
4/12
28 0
4/12
29 0
4/00
29 0
4/00
29 0
4/00
29 0
4/00
29 0
4/00
29 0
4/00
29 0
4/00
29 0
4/00
29 0
4/00
29 0
4/12
29 0
4/12
29 0
4/12
29 0
4/12
29 0
4/12
29 0
4/12
29 0
4/12
29 0
4/12
29 0
4/12
30/0
4/00
30/0
4/00
30/0
4/00
30/0
4/00
30/0
4/00
30/0
4/00
30/0
4/00
30/0
4/00
30/0
4/00
30/0
4/12
30/0
4/12
30/0
4/12
30/0
4/12
30/0
4/12
30/0
4/12
30/0
4/12
30/0
4/12
30/0
4/12
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/12
27 0
4/12
27 0
4/12
27 0
4/12
27 0
4/12
27 0
4/12
27 0
4/12
27 0
4/12
27 0
4/12
28 0
4/00
28 0
4/00
28 0
4/00
28 0
4/00
28 0
4/00
28 0
4/00
28 0
4/00
28 0
4/00
28 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
27 0
4/00
War
szaw
aW
arsz
awa
War
szaw
aW
arsz
awa
War
szaw
aW
arsz
awa
War
szaw
aW
arsz
awa
War
szaw
a
Ost
rołę
kaO
strołę
kaO
strołę
kaO
strołę
kaO
strołę
kaO
strołę
kaO
strołę
kaO
strołę
kaO
strołę
ka
Air
mas
s m
ovem
ents
ori
gin
atin
g fr
om C
her
nob
yl o
n 2
6 A
pril
12 G
MT.
Plu
mes
red
, blu
e,
and
gree
n c
orre
spon
d to
: su
rfac
e w
inds
, 92
5 m
b –
800
m a
ltit
ude
, 85
0 m
b –
1500
m
alti
tude
res
pect
ivel
y.
SC
EN
AR
IO M
AZ
OW
IAD
ATA
FR
OM
CH
ER
NO
BY
L A
IR P
OLLU
TIO
N I
N T
HE M
AZ
OV
IA A
REA
32
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
Loca
lizat
ion
of
War
saw
tow
n a
rea
and
Ost
role
ka a
rea
in t
he
Maz
ovia
pro
vin
ce.
Milk
sam
plin
g pl
aces
du
rin
g 28
Apr
il –
31 M
ay19
86
SC
EN
AR
IO M
AZ
OW
IAD
ATA
FR
OM
CH
ER
NO
BY
L A
IR P
OLLU
TIO
N I
N T
HE M
AZ
OV
IA A
REA
33
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
I-13
1 m
ilk c
once
ntra
tion
in M
AZO
VIA
DIS
TRIC
T
1
10
10
0
10
00
10
00
0
28-04-8629-04-8630-04-8601-05-8602-05-8603-05-8604-05-8605-05-8606-05-8607-05-8608-05-8609-05-8610-05-8611-05-8612-05-8613-05-8614-05-8615-05-8616-05-8617-05-8618-05-8619-05-8620-05-8621-05-8622-05-8623-05-8624-05-8625-05-8626-05-8627-05-8628-05-8629-05-8630-05-8631-05-8601-06-8602-06-8603-06-86
DAT
E
I-131
[Bq/
L]
WA
RS
AW
MIL
K
Fale
nty
milk
Ost
role
ka a
rea m
ilk
34
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
I-1
31
Thy
roid
bur
den
for
inha
bita
nts
of
MA
ZOW
IA d
istr
ict
110100
100
0
1000
0
1000
00
28-04-86
30-04-86
02-05-86
04-05-86
06-05-86
08-05-86
10-05-86
12-05-86
14-05-86
16-05-86
18-05-86
20-05-86
22-05-86
24-05-86
26-05-86
28-05-86
30-05-86
01-06-86
03-06-86
05-06-86
07-06-86
09-06-86
11-06-86
13-06-86
15-06-86
17-06-86
19-06-86
DAT
E
thyr
oid
burd
en [B
q]W
AR
AD
ULT
SN
o L
ug
#N
/D
!
#N
/D
!
#N
/D
!
#N
/D
!
#N
/D
!
#N
/D
!
OS
TR
AD
ULT
SN
o L
ug
#N
/D
!
#N
/D
!
#N
/D
!
#N
/D
!
#N
/D
!
35
33rdrdC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onC
ombi
ned
Mee
tings
of t
he IA
EA
Pro
gram
me
onE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rE
nvir
onm
enta
l Mod
ellin
g fo
rR
Adi
atio
nR
Adi
atio
nSa
fety
(EM
RA
S)Sa
fety
(EM
RA
S)2121
–– 2525
Nov
embe
r 20
05N
ovem
ber
2005
Iren
aM
alát
ová,
Nat
iona
l Rad
iatio
n Pr
otec
tion
Inst
itute
, Cze
ch R
epub
lic(1
37Cs
in V
AM
P’s
Cent
ral B
ohem
ia S
cena
rio)
Ch
ern
ob
yl
Pra
gu
e
Air
, P
reci
pit
ati
on
, V
eg
eta
tio
n,
An
imal fe
ed
, W
ate
r, M
ilk,
Hu
man
Th
yro
id
SC
EN
AR
IO U
ND
ER
PR
EP
AR
AT
ION
SC
EN
AR
IO U
ND
ER
PR
EP
AR
AT
ION
