Racial Attitudes and Candidate Evaluation

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Racial Attitudes and Their Effects onCandidate Evaluations

David B. Sparks and Candis S. Watts

Duke UniversityPrepared for REGSS Colloquium

November 19, 2009


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Racial Attitudes and

Candidate Evaluations National Debate

Literature Review

Candidate Evaluation and Electoral Choice Racial Attitudes and Candidate Evaluation

Hypotheses

Empirical Tests

Results

Conclusions


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A National Debate The 2008 election was

the first to have the firstviable Black candidate,

but it was the hardly thefirst U.S. election to beabout race. In fact,every national electionis about race. Go back

as far as you want.~Howard Winant

Barack Obama has justbecome the first Blackleader of the free world,

winner of an election inwhich his race wasclearly no barrier, andmay well have been anadvantage ~Abigail

Thernstrom


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Central Questions Do racial attitudes affect presidential

candidate evaluation?

If so, how do these attitudes play a role? Policy orientation?

Feelings about the candidate?

Do racial attitudes matter more in biracialcampaigns than campaigns that includecompetitors of the same race?


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Candidate Evaluation Partisanship and issue stance serve as core

components of vote choice

Campbell et al., 1955 Campbell et al., 1960

Later

Candidate evaluation is the summary of

information including partisanship and issuestance Markus and Converse, 1979

Lodge, McGraw, Stroh, 1989

Aldrich, Abramson, Rohde, 2007


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Candidate Evaluation:

An Update with Social Psychology People respond to candidates as they would outside

of the political domain Kinder et al., 1980; Rahn et al., 1990; Rosenberg and

McCafferty, 1987 Votes may use use their perceptions of candidates

personalities more heavily than issue stance Miller, Wattenberg, and Malanchuk, 1986

Four dimensions of candidate evaluation:competence, leadership, integrity, empathy

Kinder, Abelson and colleagues

Putting it all together Rahn et al. 1990


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Rahn, et al. (1990)


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Racial Attitudes & Candidate

Evaluation Theories of Whites racial attitudes

Social structural, Politics based,Sociopsychological

Also heuristics and stereotypes Consensus in Black Politics literature

Debate on White Americans political behavior Yes: Gay, 2001; Bejarano and Segura, 2007; Moskowitz

and Stroh, 1994

No: Citrin, Green and Sears, 1990; Thermstrom andThermstrom, 2008; Highton, 2004; Colleu et al. 1990

Maybe: Valentino, Hutchings and White, 2002; Devine,1989; Mendelberg, 2001, 2008


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Racial Attitudes Model


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Hypotheses: How, When, Relative

Importance There are at least two ways that racial attitudes may have an

effect on candidate evaluation, if they do at all.

H1: Racial attitudes influence voters candidate evaluations throughissue preferences.

H2: Racial attitudes influence voters candidate evaluationsindependently of issue preferences.

When are these attitudes likely to arise?

H3: If the race of the candidate is a significant factor, then racialattitudes should have a larger effect in bi-racial campaigns than in

campaigns including competitors of the same race. How important are these attitudes?

H4: Traditional models of candidate evaluation are enhanced by theinclusion of racial attitudes


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Empirical Tests: The Cases1988

Bush vs. Dukakis

Two white

candidates

Vacancy of two-term Republicanpresident

Willie Horton, butotherwise implicit

Jesse Jackson

2008

McCain vs. Obama

Biracial

Vacancy of two-termRepublican president

Reverend Wright andRace Speech, butotherwise Obamaattempted to run aderacializedcampaign andMcCain used implicitracial attacks

2004

Bush vs. Gore

Two white candidates

Close contemporarycase for comparisonto 2008.

Not racialized


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Variable Measurement Candidate evaluation is a comparative process Issue Positions

Government Services

Defense Spending

Insurance Jobs and Standard of Living

Difference of Differences:

| Democrat Self | - | Republican - Self | Racial Attitudes

Other minorities overcame prejudice

Generations of slavery and discrimination

Blacks have gotten less than they deserve

Not trying hard enough


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Variable Measurement Candidate Assessment: Evaluative,

Potency, and Activity Dimensions

(Osgood, Suci, and Tannenbaum 1957) Competence

Intelligent, Knowledgeable, Inspiring, a StrongLeader

Personal Qualities Honest, Really Cares, Compassionate, Moral,

Decent


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Variable Measurement Affect

Anger, Fear, Hope, and Pride (Kinder et al.

1980)

Party Identification

Liberal/Conservative Political Ideology

Vote for the Democratic Candidate


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Hypothesis Testing H1: Racial attitudes influence voters candidate

evaluations through issue preferences.

H2: Racial attitudes influence voters candidate

evaluations independently of issue preferences. H3: If the race of the candidate is a significant factor,

then racial attitudes should have a larger effect in bi-racial campaigns than in campaigns includingcompetitors of the same race.

H4: Traditional models of candidate evaluation areenhanced by the inclusion of racial attitudes.


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Hypothesis Testing H1: Racial attitudes influence voters candidate evaluations

exclusively through issue preferences. Do racial attitudes have a significant relationship with Issue

Positions?

Does including issue preferences as a predictor undermine thestrength of racial attitudes as a predictor?


H3: If the race of the candidate is a significant factor, then racialattitudes should have a larger effect in bi-racial campaigns than

in campaigns including competitors of the same race. H4: Traditional models of candidate evaluation are enhanced by

the inclusion of racial attitudes.


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Issue

Difference

Affect

Difference

Democratic

Vote

Democratic

Vote

Intercept -1.418 0.058 0.277 -0.035

SE 0.185 0.037 0.429 0.472

Issue Difference -0.092 -1.007 -0.709

SE 0.005 0.072 0.078

Party Identification 0.042 -0.005 0.015 0.068

SE 0.016 0.003 0.041 0.046

Political Ideology 0.652 -0.038 -0.321 -0.234

SE 0.025 0.005 0.067 0.074

Personal Qualities 0.144 1.111 0.723SE 0.010 0.131 0.143

Competence 0.104 1.071 0.780

SE 0.010 0.130 0.143

Racial Attitude Scale -0.538 0.030 0.280 0.193

SE 0.037 0.008 0.092 0.103

2004 -0.067 0.043 -0.074 -0.015

SE 0.080 0.016 0.200 0.228

2008 -0.304 0.216 1.013 0.270

SE 0.085 0.017 0.192 0.217

Affect Difference 3.250

SE 0.288

(Pseudo) R 0.349 0.689 0.810 0.847


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exclusively through issue preferences. Do racial attitudes have a significant relationship with Issue

Positions? Yes.

Does including issue preferences as a predictor undermine thestrength of racial attitudes as a predictor? No.


H3: If the race of the candidate is a significant factor, then racialattitudes should have a larger effect in bi-racial campaigns than

in campaigns including competitors of the same race. H4: Traditional models of candidate evaluation are enhanced by

the inclusion of racial attitudes.


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evaluations exclusively through issue preferences. H2: Racial attitudes influence voters candidate

evaluations independently of issue preferences. Do racial attitudes exhibit a significant relationship with affect

and vote choice, controlling for issue preferences and otherrelevant variables?

H3: If the race of the candidate is a significant factor,then racial attitudes should have a larger effect in bi-

racial campaigns than in campaigns includingcompetitors of the same race.



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Affect

Difference

Democratic

Vote

Democratic

Vote

Intercept 0.058 0.277 -0.035

SE 0.037 0.429 0.472

Issue Difference -0.092 -1.007 -0.709

SE 0.005 0.072 0.078

Party Identification -0.005 0.015 0.068

SE 0.003 0.041 0.046

Political Ideology -0.038 -0.321 -0.234

SE 0.005 0.067 0.074

Personal Qualities 0.144 1.111 0.723

SE 0.010 0.131 0.143

Competence 0.104 1.071 0.780

SE 0.010 0.130 0.143

Racial Attitude Scale 0.030 0.280 0.193

SE 0.008 0.092 0.103

2004 0.043 -0.074 -0.015

SE 0.016 0.200 0.228

2008 0.216 1.013 0.270

SE 0.017 0.192 0.217

Affect Difference 3.250

SE 0.288

(Pseudo) R 0.689 0.810 0.847


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evaluations independently of issue preferences. Do racial attitudes exhibit a significant relationship with affect

and vote choice, controlling for issue preferences and otherrelevant variables? Yes.

H3: If the race of the candidate is a significant factor,then racial attitudes should have a larger effect in bi-

racial campaigns than in campaigns includingcompetitors of the same race.



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then racial attitudes should have a larger effect in bi-racial campaigns than in campaigns includingcompetitors of the same race. Does the significance of racial attitudes vary with the

presence or absence of a racial minority candidate?



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Affect

Difference

Democratic

Vote

Intercept 0.053 0.607

SE 0.041 0.486

Issue Difference -0.091 -0.997

SE 0.005 0.072

Party Identification -0.005 0.018

SE 0.003 0.041

Political Ideology -0.038 -0.322

SE 0.005 0.067

Personal Qualities 0.144 1.135

SE 0.010 0.132

Competence 0.105 1.089

SE 0.010 0.131

2004 0.088 -0.212

SE 0.047 0.628

2008 0.187 -0.121

SE 0.049 0.603

Racial Attitudes (1988) 0.032 0.150

SE 0.011 0.130


SE 0.013 0.188


SE 0.014 0.182

(Pseudo) R 0.689 0.811


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then racial attitudes should have a larger effect in bi-racial campaigns than in campaigns includingcompetitors of the same race. Does the significance of racial attitudes vary with the

presence or absence of a racial minority candidate? Yes.



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exclusively through issue preferences. H2: Racial attitudes influence voters candidate evaluations

independently of issue preferences.

H3: If the race of the candidate is a significant factor, then racialattitudes should have a larger effect in bi-racial campaigns thanin campaigns including competitors of the same race.

H4: Traditional models of candidate evaluation are enhanced bythe inclusion of racial attitudes. Does the fit of the affect formation and vote determination models

improve with the inclusion of racial attitudes as a predictor? Is this improvement in model fit more pronounced in the instance of

bi-racial campaigns?


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Affect Difference Democratic Vote

All 1988 2004 2008 All 1988 2004 2008

Without

Racial

Attitudes

(Pseudo) R 0.665 0.692 0.794 0.650 0.801 0.850 0.938 0.757

AIC 1747.355 411.178 311.394 479.639 1120.627 383.244 134.611 342.602

With

Racial

Attitudes

(Pseudo) R 0.667 0.693 0.794 0.655 0.802 0.851 0.939 0.762

AIC 1739.780 410.151 313.052 471.802 1114.184 383.395 135.279 339.227

ANOVA P-Statistic 0.002 0.083 0.561 0.002 0.004 0.174 0.248 0.020


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exclusively through issue preferences. H2: Racial attitudes influence voters candidate evaluations

independently of issue preferences.

H3: If the race of the candidate is a significant factor, then racialattitudes should have a larger effect in bi-racial campaigns thanin campaigns including competitors of the same race.

H4: Traditional models of candidate evaluation are enhanced bythe inclusion of racial attitudes. Does the fit of the affect formation and vote determination models

improve with the inclusion of racial attitudes as a predictor? Yes. Is this improvement in model fit more pronounced in the instance of

bi-racial campaigns? Yes.


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Hypothesis Test Results H1: Racial attitudes influence voters candidate

evaluations exclusively through issue preferences.

H2: Racial attitudes influence voters candidate


then racial attitudes should have a larger effect in bi-racial campaigns than in campaigns includingcompetitors of the same race.



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Conclusions Racial attitudes have not only an

indirect effect on affect formation and

vote determination (through issuepreferences), but also have a directeffect.


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Conclusions The influence of racial attitudes is more

pronounced in evaluative comparisons

that feature candidates of differentraces.


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Conclusions The inclusion of racial attitudes

improves existing models of affect

formation and vote determination,especially for cross-racial candidatecomparisons.


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Thank you Questions?

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Racial Attitudes and Candidate Evaluation