R Slide 1 Preliminary & Subject to Change Pre-Feasibility Study of a Blended HSR Service: CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee Dr. Rapik Saat, Ph.D.,

RSlide 1 Preliminary & Subject to Change

Pre-Feasibility Study of a Blended HSR Service: CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee

Dr. Rapik Saat, Ph.D., PMPRail Transportation & Engineering Center (RailTEC)Department of Civil & Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

9 July 2014CrossRail Celebratory LunchThe Museum of Broadcast Communications, Chicago, IL


Outline

• CrossRail conceptual vision

• Route alternatives

• Operation & maintenance cost

• Ridership target

• Capital cost

• Summary


CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee Conceptual Vision

• Improve the connectivity between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Chicago (135 miles)

• Leverage high ridership between Chicago and Milwaukee

• Distance too short to attract HSR investment (75 miles)

• Blended service:• True HSR between Champaign and

University Park (max. 220mph)

• True HSR between Chicago and Milwaukee (max. 220mph)

• Shared operations within Chicago (existing average speed)

• Total length of 220 mile


Route AssumptionsChampaign(CHM)- University Park(UNIV)

• Three alternatives - Red: I-57 - Blue: US-45 and US-50 - Yellow: Existing Amtrak/CN line

• Potential available public land for I-57 and US-45/US-50 alternatives

• HSR construction and operation on the shared ROW with existing Amtrak/CN line is challenging

– Backbone of CN’s U.S. operation

• 40 minute estimated trip time


Route AssumptionsChicago Area

• Existing Metra services connected in Chicago area

- Purple: North Central Service (NCS) of Metra

- Pink: Metra Electric District (ME) of Metra

• Assume NCS and ME line connected at Chicago Union Station

• With no additional capital improvement express service takes– 60 minutes between University

Park and Downtown– 30 minutes between Downtown

and O’Hare Airport


Route AssumptionsO’Hare International Airport (ORD)- Milwaukee (MKE)

• Based on U of I class project results, there are three main alternatives between ORD and Milwaukee:

- Red: West alternative - Blue: Central alternative - Yellow: East alternative• Central alternative was identified

as the best alternative• Total length of selected route is 75

miles• 30 minute estimated trip time


HSR Feasibility Requirement #1:Can a HSR System Cover Its

Operating Cost?


Annual Operating and Maintenance Cost

Assumptions

14 trips each direction, 24 total trips per day

Schedule is same during the whole year

O&M cost standard is based on the California High Speed Rail study

Item Category Unit Cost($)Unit/Yr Quantity Total($)

ATrain Operations and Maintenance 20Train-Mile 2,248,400 44,968,000

B Maintenance of Infrastructure 200,000Route Mile 220 44,000,000

C Stations 2,000,000Station 6 12,000,000

D Insurance 25,000,000Lump Sum 1 25,000,000

E Administration and Support 10% x (Items A-D)　　 12,596,800

F Contingency 10% x (Items A-E)　　 13,856,480

　　　　 Total 152,421,280

If the average ticket price is $30, 5 million annual ridership is needed to cover the O&M cost


Estimated Existing Annual RidershipCity Pair Amtrak Airline

Chicago-Milwaukee 800,000a 6,525,181c

Chicago-Champaign 100,000b 140,000d

Champaign KankakeeDupage-

Cook

Kenosha-Racine-

Wilwaukee

Champaign - 19,240 165,100 8,320

Kankakee 48,620 - 1,425,580 2,860

Dupage-Cook

189,800 297,180 - 390,780

Kenosha-Racine-

Wilwaukee0 27,820 1,404,000 -

TOTAL 3,979,300

Sources:a. Wikipediab. MWHSR Transystem Studyc. MKE Airport Total Annual Passengers in 2013d. Estimated, based on 2013 CMI enplanements and ratio of ORD vs DFW flightse. U.S. Census – Department of Commerce (Commuting – Journey to Work Data)

Journey to Work Surveye


The largest risk in the initial phase of a HSR implementation is

ridership forecast


Two Approaches of Ridership Forecast

Total demand

Disaggregated

Survey of preference

Traffic Diversion as a result of simulation of

sample

Aggregated

Mathematical representation of the

demand behavior

Explanation of the present market shares

(Calibration)

Time value

New Time value (HSR)

Future ridership volume (no HSR)

Diverted

Income/ population forecast

Introduction of HSR

Induced


Research Need: Advanced Ridership Study• Improved ridership study to estimate system’s profitability

• Use aggregated ridership forecast approach instead of survey

• Getting auto ridership data is key to identify diverted HSR ridership from highways

– Key to forecast accuracy

– Opportunity: Acquire cellphone data



Operating Cost?

If the average ticket price is $30, 5 million annual ridership is needed to cover the O&M cost. This can be achieved for example by realigning the

synergy between ORD-MKE airports.


Research Need: HSR Roles & Synergies with Airports/Airlines

• HSR can potentially improve air transportation

• Short-haul air travel (less than 500 miles) could be replaced with HSR

• Landing and takeoff slots at congested airports could be freed up for long-haul flights

• HSR as a feeder to long-haul flights

• Integrated multi-airport operation (e.g. ORD-MKE airports) could provide positive redundancy to improve service resiliency and reduced delays

Source: Clewlow, R.R.L., J.M. Sussman, H. Balakrishnan (2012). Interaction of HSR and Aviation: Exploring Air-Rail Connectivity. Transportation Research Record: Journal of Transportation Research Board, No. 2266, pp. 1-10)

• HSR-Airline collaborations are common in Europe

• How can at least half of the 6.5 million annual passengers at MKE Airport be streamlined to use ORD and vice-versa with less than 30-min ORD-MKE HSR connection?



Capital Cost?


Capital Cost

Routes Distance(mile)

Capital Cost (billion)

Cost per Mile (million)

MKE-ORD 97 $5.1 $53

ORD-UNIV 37 $1.0 $21

UNIV-CHM 75 $5.5 $73

Assumptions• True High Speed Rail Routes

Based on the IDOT 220 project and U of I class project to determine capital cost and cost per mile for Champaign-University Park, Milwaukee-O’Hare routes

• Metra Express$1B investment mainly to connect the existing Metra Electric District (ME) with North Central Service (NCS) through Chicago Union Station


Research Need: Engineering Route and Environmental Impact Analyses

• Identify preliminary alignment and design

• Verify publicly-available right-of-ways

• Capital cost estimation

• Evaluate environmental impacts


Summary• CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee is expected to be

operationally profitable

• Further studies needed:

– Ridership forecast

– HSR roles and synergies with airports and airlines

– Engineering route and environmental impact analyses

– Economic impact and financial analyses

• Planning is a long-term effort

– e.g. Illinois was “shovel-ready” to receive federal HSR funding in 2008 because the vision started as early as early 1990s and completed EIS in 2003

– Investment-grade planning analysis and state commitment (e.g. public land availability) could attract investors keen to showcase their HSR technologies and enter U.S. market


Thank you! Questions?


Appendix


Cities Along CrossRail RouteChicago The most populous city in Midwest and third most populous city in the U.S with 9,522,434 metro population.

An international hub for finance, commerce, industry, technology, telecommunications, and transportation, with O’Hare International Airport being the second-busiest airport in the world; it also has the largest number of U.S. highways, and railroad freight entering its region

GDP of metro area is 585,900 million dollars(2013)


Cities Along CrossRail Route

Milwaukee Largest city in the U.S. state of Wisconsin with 1,566,981 metro population. It is main cultural and economic center of the Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha Metropolitan Area with a population of 2,037,542 as of an official 2012 estimate

GDP of metro area is 88,708 million dollars(2013)

Champaign

Champaign is the fourth-most populous city in the state outside of the Chicago Metropolitan area. It is notable for sharing the campus of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with its sister city of Urbana. Champaign is also the home of Parkland College which serves about 18,000 students during the academic year. Metro population of Champaign is 231,891

Documents

R Slide 1 Preliminary & Subject to Change Pre-Feasibility Study of a Blended HSR Service: CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee Dr. Rapik Saat, Ph.D.,