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R O O F R u s s i a S . A .
Case Study of a Successful Russian Auto Loan
Securitisation
London, September 2008
2
Agenda
Strategic Portfolio Management
General
Asset Quality
Rating Agency Process
Pricing of the Notes
Market Outlook: Will we see such prices again?
3
Agenda
Strategic Portfolio Management
General
Asset Quality
Rating Agency Process
Pricing of the Notes
Market Outlook: Will we see such prices again?
4
Introduction ROOF Russia S.A.
Strategic Portfolio Management
On 16th May 2007, ROOF Russia was closed In this USD 400mm transaction, Raiffeisenbank
Austria, the Russian sub diary of RI (“RBRU”) securitized a portfolio of USD denominated auto loans for new, non-Russian brand cars;
Following aspects of this successful transaction are covered in this presentation:• Asset Quality• Rating Agency Process• Pricing of the Notes• Deal Performance
5
Transaction Structure
Strategic Portfolio Management
OFFSHORE RUSSIA
Loan Inst
alm
ents
Loan Inst
alm
ents
Car Loan Portfolio USD 400 mlnFixed Interest
Car Loan Portfolio USD 400 mlnFixed Interest
Purchase PriceRBRU
ROOF Russia
SA,Luxembourg
ROOF Russia
SA,Luxembourg
Non-recourse sale
of portfolio Non-recourse sale
of portfolio
Senior TrancheA3/A-
Senior TrancheA3/A-
InternationalCapital Markets
& Conduits
InternationalCapital Markets
& Conduits
Mezzanine TrancheBaa2/BBB to B2/B
Mezzanine TrancheBaa2/BBB to B2/B
Junior TrancheJunior TrancheRZB
IFC et alIFC et al
HSBCHSBC
Interest Rate Swap
Liquidity Line, Comm. & Setoff Res., Sub. Loan
6
Capital Structure
Strategic Portfolio Management
Class USD mln % of total Rating Coupon WAL SVFC Notes 227,17 56,79% A-/ A3 CP rate + n.d. 3.79Class A Notes 130,00 32,50% A-/ A3 1mL + 95 bps 3.79Class B Notes 13,80 3,45% BBB/ Baa2 1mL + 135bps 5.44Class C Notes 17,90 4,48% BB/ Ba2 1mL + 295bps 5.44Class D Notes 3,50 0,88% B/ B2 1mL + 625bps 5.44Total Securities 392,37 98,09%Sub Note 7,63 1,91% NRTotal 400,00 100,00%Liquidity facility 9,81 2,50%of SecuritiesLiquidity principal 3,93 2,38%of Notes (1% of Securities)Commingling reserve 16,28 4,11%of Initial ReceivablesSet-off reserve 15,09 3,81%of Initial ReceivablesTotal cash reserve 31,37 7,92%of Initial Receivables
Lowest first loss piece in Russia ever!
7
Transaction Highlights
Strategic Portfolio Management
The transaction has the most attractive capital structure out of CEE/CIS with 89.3% Class A Notes and SVFC Notes of the structure and a first loss piece of 1,91%
The publicly offered Class A notes (A3/A-) and Class B notes (Baa2/BBB) achieved the tightest pricing levels so far in a Russian ABS transaction
This is the first Russian transaction to combine public term notes and private conduit financing at the same time as funding instruments, which provides RBRU with additional flexibility
8
Agenda
Strategic Portfolio Management
General
Asset Quality
Rating Agency Process
Pricing of the Notes
Market Outlook: Will we see such prices again?
9
Car lending development of RBRU
Strategic Portfolio Management
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Apr.03 Jul.03 Okt.03 Jän.04 Apr.04 Jul.04 Okt.04 Jän.05 Apr.05 Jul.05 Okt.05 Jän.06 Apr.06 Jul.06 Okt.06 Jän.07
05.00010.00015.00020.00025.00030.00035.00040.00045.000
Development of RBA’s auto loan portfolio
Generic product description of loans eligible for the transaction: RBA is targeting the prime market segment
All loan contracts are based on a standard loan agreement
Loans for private individuals only No balloon payments, but only annuity
payments Cars can only be bought through official
dealerships or sub dealers
New cars only Non-Russian car brands only All loans to be securitised are US$
denominated A minimum monthly income of the
obligor/household of US$ 450
10
Dynamic delinquencies on a monthly basis
Strategic Portfolio Management
Car loan portfolio before closing of Transaction
11
Static gross defaults by quarter of origination
Strategic Portfolio Management
12
Agenda
Strategic Portfolio Management
General
Asset Quality
Rating Agency Process
Pricing of the Notes
Market Outlook: Will we see such prices again?
13
Rating Agency Process
Strategic Portfolio Management
Start of process with 3 rating agency at the beginning of transaction;
Data file containing • Portfolio characteristics on a loan-by-loan basis• Historic performance analysis (delinquencies,
defaults, recoveries, prepayments, net losses) Due Diligence meetings in Moscow After initial rating feedback selection of Fitch and
Moody´s Building of cash flow model – modelling of default and
recovery rates under rating specific stress scenarios;
14
Success Factors
Strategic Portfolio Management
Portfolio quality Data quality Strong legal input Commitment to the transaction
• Dedicated core project team to fulfil rating agencies´ data and information requests;
Patience and Endurance
15
Agenda
Strategic Portfolio Management
General
Asset Quality
Rating Agency Process
Pricing of the Notes
Market Outlook: Will we see such prices again?
16
Pricing of the Notes
Step 1: Pricing inside previous ABS deals
Initial price guidance of +100bps to +105bps for the Class A notes
Oversubscription of both publicly offered tranches after only one day of bookbuilding
Strategic Portfolio Management
2,22x2,22x2,47x
1,21x
1,61x1,55x1,78x
0,96x0,6x
1,0x
1,4x
1,8x
2,2x
2,6x
3,0x
Day 1 Day 1 ½ Day 2 Day 3
price guidancerevised
+100 bps
+105 bps
+95 bps
+100 bps
Step 2: Breaking the 100bps threshold Building on strong bookbuilding the price guidance was revised
during the second day to +95bps to +100bps +95bps spread for the Class A notes and a +135bps spread for
the Class B notes, which are the tightest spreads ever achieved by a Russian ABS deal
17
Agenda
Strategic Portfolio Management
General
Asset Quality
Rating Agency Process
Pricing of the Notes
Market Outlook: Will we see such prices again?
18
Issuance in CEE/CIS YTD
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CMBS Consumer loans Credit cardsLease receivables Other RMBSTrade receivables DPR Auto loansCDO Factoring receivables SME CLO
2008 YTD: 56% of the issuance volume of 2007
Source: Dealogic, Bloomberg, Raiffeisen RESEARCH, Citi
European Securitised Products Issuance
Volume
CEE/CIS Securitised Products Issuance
Volume
in E
UR
mn
0
50
100
150
200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
in E
UR
bn
Credit Cards Consumer & Corporate LoansLeases Auto LoansCDO ABS Total
19
New ABS issues in 2008 (CEE/CIS)
Date Originator Issuer Country Collateral typeRating on
senior class (launch)
Deal Volume (in mEUR)
01/2008 Eurokommerz Factoring Company
Russian Factoring No. 1
S. A
Russia Factoring BBB/BBB 224
02/2008 Raiffeisen Leasing Polska
ROOF Poland Poland Leasing n.a. 280
02/2008Moscow Bank for
Reconstruction and Development
Russian Securitisation Platform S.A.
Russia Auto Loans BBB+ 43
02/2008 AHML AHML 2008-2 Russia RMBS A3 294
03/2008 KIT Finance Rumba I Russia RMBS BBB+ 187
05/2008 CJSC Privatbank Ukraine Auto Loan Finance
No.1 plc
Ukraine Auto Loans Baa3/BBB- 71
06/2008 KIT Finance KIT Ipoteka Russia RMBS BBB+ 133
06/2008 Interregional Factoring Co.
„TRUST“
Russian Structured Factoring
Receivables No.1
Russia Factoring BBB 112
Total Volume : 1344
20
RMBS48%
CMBS13%
CDO10%
B/ S CLO10%
Subprime7%
Other12%
CDO44%
Other56%
Subprime0%
B/ S CLO0%
CMBS0%
RMBS0%
RMBS46%
CMBS14%
CDO9%
B/ S CLO10%
Subprime7%
Other14%
Issuance in CEE/CIS YTD vs. Western Europe by asset type
Other1.76%
SME CLO10.84%
Auto loans13.58%
CMBS total5.53%
CDO2.73%
Consumer loans
11.31%
DPR36.09%
Lease receivables
9.94%
RMBS8.22%
Auto loans12.17%
DPR42.06%
Consumer loans
3.39%
RMBS37.96%
SME CLO4.43%
RMBS45.68%
Lease receivables
20.83%Auto loans
8.48%
Factoring receivables
25.00%
CEE/CIS: in 2008 relative weight of RMBS continues to grow
2006 2007 2008 YTD
Source: Dealogic, Bloomberg, Raiffeisen RESEARCH, Citi
Western Europe: Issuance by asset
type 20072006 2008 YTD
21
Issuance in CEE/CIS YTD
Moody‘s expects stressed market conditions to cause the performance of various vintages and tranches of UK non-conformist RMBS to diverge. During Q2 2008, Moody's downgraded 53 classes of securities on 17 different transactions with a total value of GBP1.2 billion outstanding.
Moody’s report on performance of outstanding Russian and CIS RMBS and Auto ABS transactions released on September 1, indicates low delinquencies. Seven out of 11 transactions have delinquencies below 0.50%.
22
Comparison Russian ABS Transactions
Constant Prepayment Rate, Total Redemption Rate
61-90 days delinquencies31-60 days delinquencies
Business and Geographical Segments
Russian Consumer Finance
Russian Car Loans 1
Roof Russia
Taganka Car Loan Finance
0,00%
0,20%
0,40%
0,60%
0,80%
1,00%
1,20%
1,40%
1,60%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 210,00%
0,10%
0,20%
0,30%
0,40%
0,50%
0,60%
0,70%
0,80%
0,90%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
23
0,00%
0,05%
0,10%
0,15%
0,20%
0,25%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Comparison Roof Russia vs. Driver 4 & Driver 5
Constant Prepayment Rate, Total Redemption Rate
90 + days delinquencies60-90 days delinquencies
Business and Geographical Segments
Roof Russia
Driver 4
Driver 5
0,00%
0,05%
0,10%
0,15%
0,20%
0,25%
0,30%
0,35%
0,40%
0,45%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0,00%
10,00%
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
60,00%
70,00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24
Risk and protection in RMBS transactions (Russia, CIS)
TransactionsSenior class
ratingSenior class
subordination
Senior class subordination +
reserve fund30+
Deliq.60+
Deliq.90+
Deliq.
CityMortgage MBS Baa2 24.6% 24.85% 2.8% 2.6% 1.8%
Red&Black Prime Russia A2/A 23.4% 29.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3%
Russian MBS A1/A- 28.2% 32.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Moscow Stars Baa2/BBB 15.3% 22.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5%
Gazprombank 2006 A3/BBB+ 19.3% 24.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3%
Gazprombank 2007 A3/BBB+ 19.6% 21.2% 2.8% 2.1% 1.7%
Ukraine MLF A-/A3 44.1% 52.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Kazakh MBS 2007 Baa3/BBB- 28.8% 33.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Russia A3/BBB+ 21.8% 25.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8%
Average CIS A3/BBB+ 25.4% 30.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6%
Source: Investor reports, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
25
Risk and protection in Auto loans ABS transactions (Russia, CIS)
TransactionsSenior class
ratingSenior class
subordination
Senior class subordination + reserve fund
30+ Deliq.
60+ Deliq.
90+ Deliq.
Russian car loans A-/Baa1 39.2% 39.2% 11.2% 10.9% 6.7%
Roof RussiaRoof Russia A-/A3A-/A3 9.0%9.0% 9.0%9.0% 0.9%0.9% 0.4%0.4% 0.3%0.3%
Taganka* A-/A3 68.1% 76.8% 11.4% 10.3% 9.5%
Ukraine Auto Loans Finance 1** N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Average Russia A-/Baa1 38.8% 41.7% 6.9% 6.3% 5.0%
Average CIS A-/Baa1 38.8% 41.7% 6.9% 6.3% 5.0%
*Senior class = Class B (Class A has been repaid)**Issued in May 08, does not provide regular reporting yet
Source: Investor reports, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
26
RMBS in Russia, CIS vs. western Europe
Market SubordinationSubordination +
reserve fund 30+ Deliq. 60+ Deliq. 90+ Deliq.
Average Russia 21.8% 25.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8%
Average CIS 25.4% 30.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6%
Average UK NC AAA 22.5% 24.4% 20.9% 14.5% 10.6%
Average UK Prime AAA 8.4% 34.3% 2.8% 1.3% 0.8%
Average Spain AAA 7.6% 9.3% 3.6% 1.9% 1.2%
Average Dutch AAA 8.9% 10.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4%
Source: Investor reports, Lehman Brothers, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
27
Auto loans in Russia, CIS vs. western Europe
Market SubordinationSubordination +
reserve fund 30+ Deliq. 60+ Deliq. 90+ Deliq.
Average Russian Auto Loans ABS 21.2% 25.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7%
Average Auto Loans ABS in CIS 24.8% 29.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5%
Average European Auto Loans ABS AAA 4.6% 8.8% 2.4% 1.5% 1.0%
Source: Investor reports, Lehman Brothers, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
28
Thank you!
Roland MechtlerDeputy Head of Strategic Portfolio
Management Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding AG
Tel. +43-1-71707 2161Fax +43-1-71707 1226
e-mail [email protected]