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QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

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QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009. 20 Year Rates of Return - A Bright Future. November 1968 +13.18%. March 2000 +13.85%. January 2009 +4.65%. August 1949 +0.29% after Great Depression. December 2019 +0.19%. February 1982 +0.55%. What Works Following Recessions?. Most expensive. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

QWAFAFEWFEBRUARY 2009

Page 2: QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

I

2

20 Year Rates of Return - A Bright Future

August 1949

+0.29% after Great Depression

November 1968

+13.18%March 2000

+13.85%

January 2009

+4.65%

February 1982

+0.55%

December 2019

+0.19%

Rolling Real 20-Year Compound Average Growth Rate of the S&P 50020-year Real Average Annual Return through December 31, 2019 if the S&P compounds at a Real Annual Rate of Return of 6 percent per year from 2009 through 2019.

Page 3: QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

I

Recessions Since 1962As defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research

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What Works Following Recessions?

Peak Date Trough Date

12/1/1969 11/1/1970

11/1/1973 3/1/1975

1/1/1980 7/1/1980

7/1/1981 11/1/1982

7/1/1990 3/1/1991

3/1/2001 11/1/2001

Price to Sales Deciles Five year period following recessions since 1962

Most expensive Least expensive

Page 4: QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

I

Post-Recession AnalysisAverage factor and strategy performance (%)

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What Works Following Recessions?

Price to Sales

High Price to Sales Low Price to SalesDecile 1

- Decile 1010 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 All Stocks

1 year 10.80 18.79 18.68 20.83 23.16 25.74 28.53 31.23 33.57 32.59 25.04 21.79

3 year* 6.49 12.22 13.76 15.65 17.02 18.13 19.19 20.42 22.19 23.06 17.39 16.57

5 year* 5.59 9.91 11.34 13.29 14.65 15.76 16.77 17.85 19.14 19.54 14.78 13.95

Low Buyback Yield High Buyback Yield Decile 1 - Decile 10BuyBack Yield 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 All Stocks

1 year 17.49 19.67 22.80 26.49 24.68 25.41 21.73 25.67 28.47 32.42 25.04 14.93

3 year* 11.17 13.26 15.85 17.89 16.92 17.41 16.83 19.28 19.39 22.23 17.39 11.05

5 year* 8.31 10.92 14.22 15.55 14.48 14.91 14.48 16.11 16.93 20.22 14.78 11.90

6 Month Momentum

Weak Momentum Strong Momentum Decile 1 - Decile 1010 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 All Stocks

1 year 15.07 21.73 22.72 24.95 24.75 25.34 25.70 26.46 27.72 29.66 25.04 14.59

3 year* 9.37 14.41 15.57 17.28 17.72 18.19 18.42 18.74 19.41 19.89 17.39 10.52

5 year* 7.60 12.05 13.28 14.72 15.16 15.34 15.92 16.38 17.05 17.60 14.78 10.00

* Annualized

Page 5: QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

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5

It’s Not Different This Time

Forbes“Are Prices Too High?”

March 15, 1931

Dow: 180.61

Forbes“Maybe This is the Best Way to Pick Them”

October 1, 1973

Dow: 948.82

BusinessWeek“The Death of Equities”

August 13, 1979

Dow: 875.26

Time Magazine“The New Hard Times”

October 13, 2008

Dow: 9,387.61

Page 6: QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

I

6

Remember the End Goal of the Investor

Compound Return*2008 Last 20 Years Last 50 Years 1926 - Present

     

S&P 500 Index -37.66 8.46 9.28 9.62

Corporate Bonds

(US LT Corp)-5.89 7.89 6.92 5.71

T-Bills

(U.S. 30-Day T-Bill)1.59 4.28 5.39 3.71

U.S. Inflation 2.54 2.95 4.09 3.04

* All data monthly through 11/30/2008, except Canadian Inflation through 9/30/2008.

Page 7: QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

I What Works on Wall Street - An UpdateBest Decile Factor Performance (1964-2009)

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Page 8: QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

I Price to SalesPeriods of Factor Inversion (1964-2009)

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Page 9: QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

I Price to Sales – Growth of $1

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Page 10: QWAFAFEW FEBRUARY 2009

I General Legal Disclosure/Disclaimer and Backtested Results

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It should not be assumed that your account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices. Individual accounts may experience greater dispersion than the composite level dispersion (which is an asset weighted standard deviation of the accounts in the composite for the full measurement period). This is due a variety of factors, including but not limited to, the fresh start investment approach that OSAM employs and the fact that each account has its own customized re-balance frequency. Over time, dispersion should stabilize and track more closely to the composite level dispersion. Gross of fee performance computations are reflected prior to OSAM’s investment advisory fee (as described in OSAM’s written disclosure statement), the application of which will have the effect of decreasing the composite performance results (for example: an advisory fee of 1% compounded over a 10 year period would reduce a 10% return to an 8.9% annual return). Portfolios are managed to a target weight of 3% cash. Account information has been compiled by OSAM derived from information provided by the portfolio account systems maintained by the account custodian(s), and has not been independently verified. In calculating historical asset class performance, OSAM has relied upon information provided by the account custodian or other sources which OSAM believes to be reliable. OSAM maintains information supporting the performance results in accordance with regulatory requirements. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments purchased and/or investment strategies devised and/or implemented by OSAM) will be either suitable or profitable for a prospective client’s portfolio. OSAM is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and a copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request.

Hypothetical performance results shown on the preceding pages are backtested and do not represent the performance of any account managed by OSAM, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of each of the previously referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight.

The hypothetical backtested performance does not represent the results of actual trading using client assets nor decision-making during the period and does not and is not intended to indicate the past performance or future performance of any account or investment strategy managed by OSAM. If actual accounts had been managed throughout the period, ongoing research might have resulted in changes to the strategy which might have altered returns. The performance of any account or investment strategy managed by OSAM will differ from the hypothetical backtested performance results for each factor shown herein for a number of reasons, including without limitation the following:

Although OSAM may consider from time to time one or more of the factors noted herein in managing any account, it may not consider all or any of such factors. OSAM may (and will) from time to time consider factors in addition to those noted herein in managing any account.

OSAM may rebalance an account more frequently or less frequently than annually and at times other than presented herein.

OSAM may from time to time manage an account by using non-quantitative, subjective investment management methodologies in conjunction with the application of factors.

The hypothetical backtested performance results assume full investment, whereas an account managed by OSAM may have a positive cash position upon rebalance. Had the hypothetical backtested performance results included a positive cash position, the results would have been different and generally would have been lower.

The hypothetical backtested performance results for each factor do not reflect any transaction costs of buying and selling securities, investment management fees (including without limitation management fees and performance fees), custody and other costs, or taxes – all of which would be incurred by an investor in any account managed by OSAM. If such costs and fees were reflected, the hypothetical backtested performance results would be lower.

The hypothetical performance does not reflect the reinvestment of dividends and distributions therefrom, interest, capital gains and withholding taxes.

Accounts managed by OSAM are subject to additions and redemptions of assets under management, which may positively or negatively affect performance depending generally upon the timing of such events in relation to the market’s direction.

Simulated returns may be dependent on the market and economic conditions that existed during the period. Future market or economic conditions can adversely affect the returns.