Quote of the dayClass 22

Artifacts & Analogies

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Competitive Convergence

Superior strategic positions are likely to be

cognitively distant.

Position A

Position B

Uncontested Positions

Close Cognitive Proximity

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Visualizing Cognitively Distant Outcomes

• Artifacts From The Future

• Strategic Analogies

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“Artifacts From The Future”

Create Clarity, reduces ambiguity about future scenarios (“forces you to put a stake in the ground”)

Require an integration of DEGEST forces (i.e. interrelationships)

Communicate in a visual and immersive manner (“memories)

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Artifacts From The FuturePharma fruitThe idea: We already fortify foods with vitamins and minerals. Why not add smart drugs and anxiety medication?

The trend: Pharmaceuticals will be taken on an as-needed basis. Users wary of pills might be less afraid of apples.

Technology available? Almost. Already there are functional foods such as Dannon's Activia yogurt, with trademarked bacteria said to promote digestive health.

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Artifacts From The FutureGlacier waterThe idea: A new source for bottled H2O.

The trend: The world is getting thirsty for fresh drinking water as rivers run dry. At the same time, global warming is melting the ice caps. Why not turn that bug into a feature?

Technology available? Yes. Alaska Glacier Refreshments is already marketing water that was stored in the Eklutna Glacier for 23,000 years - but it doesn't come direct.

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Artifacts From The Future

Reputation accountsThe idea: A monthly statement keeps track of positive online contributions: writing for wikis, posting podcasts, monitoring community webcams.

The trend: Web 2.0 sites and services live or die on user content, but they can't afford financial incentives.

Technolgy available? Yes, such as Slashdot.org's "karma points." But there's no single Web-wide system.

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Artifacts From The FutureSocial Network Movie TicketsThe idea: The ticket machine knows your buddy list, tells you how close by buddies are, and offers discounts if they see the movie too.

The trend: More of us will have "always on" connections and GPS devices that always know where we are.

Technology available? In theory. Wi-Fi needs to be more widespread, however, and social networks need to integrate GPS.

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Strategic Analogies

Associative ThinkingUseful for Ambiguous QuestionsWhen evidence is imperfect

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Strategic Analogieshttp://www.betterplace.com/How-it-Works/#battery-switch-stations

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Strategic Analogies

Charlie Merrill

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Associative Thinking

• Recognize the Analogy• Outside-In• Inside-Out

• Probe the Similarities

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Outside-In Associative Thinking

Reference

Target Problem

Candidate Solution

Serve “Mr. Average

Investor”

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Inside-Out Associative Thinking

Reference

Target Problem

Candidate Solution

Wide SelectionNo Haggle

Professional Staff

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Associative Thinking

• Recognize the Analogy

• Probe the Similarities

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Watching out for Superficial Analogies

Gas & Electricity Market Characteristics

• Fragmented Demand• Rapid change & Deregulation• Tech Progress• Complex/Capital Intensive Distribution• Opaque Pricing• LT Supply / ST Demand Mismatches

Overlooked Deep differences:• Last mile delivery• No Standard Contracts

Broadband?

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Team Exercise

Take 30 minutes to creatively develop conceptual ideas for Artifacts From The Future and/or Strategic Analogies

We will briefly report out during final 10 minutes of class

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22

Next Class - Visioning Read: “Building Your Company’s Vision”

First Draft of Foresight Reports Due in class Bring one hard copy per team member

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