“Questions looking for answers and vice versa:

Environmental Regulation and Environmental Data".

Dr Campbell Gemmell, SEPA.

SEPA –who, what, how etc?

• Scotland’s EPA• Implementing EU, UK,

Scots environmental law• Excellent regulator and

recognised authority on the environment

• Wide activity range – policy to permitting and monitoring & reporting

• 1240 staff, 22 offices, 4 labs, £61m t/o

• Modern public body/ NDPB/Governance

• Our mission is to protect and improve the environment of Scotland

• To achieve 6 outcomes re: air, water, land, waste, engaged protected public, contributing to economic and social wellbeing

• Annual targets and priorities set by Government.

• See website www.sepa.org.uk

Environmental Data Use in SEPA

• Effectiveness of ‘measures’ monitoring (ie are actions that we and others take having the expected effect)

• Statutory reporting (EC Directives, eg Water Framework Directive)

• To inform wider State of Environment Reporting (forthcoming report and conference)

• Regulatory compliance assessment

Some Common Statistical Questions

• Is environmental quality getting better or worse ?

• Has our regulatory activity had an effect on the environment ?

• Is our monitoring representative ?

• What confidence do we have in the class assigned to this waterbody ?

• Is this data point an outlier ?

The Monitoring Challenge Faced

• Can we measure the environment effectively and efficiently?

• Are the data we collect able to tell us what we want to know ?

Some Current Data Quality Issues

• Values at limit of detection – How should we handle censored (<‘s) data appropriately? Work underway within SEPA examining use of more robust techniques.

• Unusually high (or low) values (outliers) • How should we detect these? • Work is underway to assess multivariate

outlier detection methods.

Examples of Data Analysis

1. To inform stakeholders – eg. Nitrates Directive (NVZ) consultation

2. To predict current conditions – eg. Bathing waters signage project

3. To inform effective regulation – eg. Tay Estuary improvements

4. To report on the State of Scotland’s Environment – eg. Diffuse Pollution, Data on Waste, climate change

5. To assess ‘uncertainty’ – eg. Confidence of Class

1. Informing Stakeholders – Nitrates Directive

• EC Nitrates Directive required designation of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones if needed.

• Analysis of risk to both surface and groundwater quality informed designation.

• Historical data analysis undertaken by Environmental Assessment unit played key role.

• Analysis made available via dedicated website.

• Presentation of data enabled more effective communication of risk to stakeholders at public meetings involving farmers affected.

2. Predicting Current Conditions - Bathing Waters Signage Project

• Aims to predict good/poor microbial quality• Inform users via electronic signs each day• Predictions based on near real time rainfall

and river flow data monitored by SEPA• Predictions use Decision Tree models• Models proving successful in forecasting

correctly against current standards• Looking promising for use with future (more

stringent) EU directive standards

3. To inform effective regulation - Tay estuary - Waste Water discharge pressures

= Waste Water Discharge = SEPA Monitoring point

To inform effective regulation - Tay estuary - Ammonia Inputs

• Ammonia inputs decreased substantially when Dundee sewage discharge was removed in 2002.

Inputs of Ammonia from Sewage to the Tay estuary

0

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Am

mo

nia

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r

4. To report on State of Scotland’s Environment – Diffuse pollution

• Diffuse pollution is a major pressure for all water body types

• Quantifying diffuse pollution pressures and impacts is difficult because: • Diffuse pollution fluxes are very

dependent on other factors (eg. weather, land management practices)

• There is a need for development of improved process and statistical models for quantifying and understanding diffuse pollution pressures

Sector pressures on rivers at risk (24%) from diffuse sources of pollution

Other

Forestry

Agriculture and Forestry

Arable and horticulture

Livestock

Mixed Farming

Acidification

Septic tanks

Urban run-off

Mining and quarrying

To Report on Scotland’s Environment: Biodegradable Municipal Waste (BMW)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

To

nn

es (

tho

usa

nd

)

Actual

Target

To report on Scotland’s Environment: Recycling and Composting Rate

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25

30

Year

Per

cen

t Actual

Estimate

Target

To report on Scotland’s Environment: Climate Change

Wetter wintersWinter Flows, R Kelvin at Killermont, 1949-2000

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Flo

w (c

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ecs)

Winter5 per. Mov. Avg. (Winter)Linear (Winter)

Winter Flows - River Nith at Friars Carse 1958-2000

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Flow

(cum

ecs)

Winter5 per. Mov. Avg. (Winter)Linear (Winter)

R.Tay at Ballathie winter flows (Oct-Mar),1958-1996

100

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300

350

1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994

Flow

(cum

ecs)

Annual winter flow5 year moving averageLinear (Annual winter flow)

R.Teith at Bridge of Teith winter flows (Oct-Mar),1957-1996.

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993

Flow

(cum

ecs)

Annual winter flow5 year moving averageLinear (Annual winter flow)

Consequences of altered river hydrology on stream chemistry

1. Loch Coire nan Arr, NW Scotland

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19

88

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96

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00

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mg

/l

7. Round Loch of Glenhead, SW Scotland

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1

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19

88

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12. River Etherow, N England

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/l

15. Llyn Llagi, N Wales

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/l

Dissolved Organic Carbon trends

5. To Assess ‘Uncertainty’ – Confidence of Class Statistics

• EC Water Framework Directive requires SEPA to quantify and report confidence in our quality classification scheme.

• Confidence of Class statistics encapsulate the uncertainties

• Confidence of Class statistics are used to prioritise programmes of measures.

Conclusions

• SEPA collects a lot of environmental data• We need to make best use of it to answer a

range of questions – we have lots of questions!• Appropriate statistical analysis and modelling of

data are increasingly important to us• We want and need to embrace new assessment/

monitoring/ statistical methods and techniques where possible

• We need to employ individuals who are able to undertake appropriate environmental data analysis – closely connected to policy and practice specialists