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Quarterly Report on the Spanish Economic
Situation Q1 2015
Círculo de Empresarios Madrid, April 2015
2
GLOBAL SETTING
USA 3.1%
Mexico 3%
Brazil -1%
Spain 2.5%
UK 2.7%
France 1.2%
Italy 0.5%
South Africa
2%
India 7.5%
China 6.8%
Russia -3.8%
Japan 1%
ASEAN-5 5.2%
Australia 2.8%
Germany 1.6%
Eurozone 1.5%
Predictions 2015
3 aASEAN-5: Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF - April 2015
Moderate and unequal acceleration
Evolution of per capita income
4 Source: IMF - April 2015
x 3,2
x 5,6
x3,4x 6,7
x10x25
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
$
USA
Germany
Japan
Spain
Brazil
China
∆ Last 30 years
Prices of raw materials
5
Source: IMF, April 2015
8090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250
2005
M3
2006
M3
2007
M3
2008
M3
2009
M3
2010
M3
2011
M3
2012
M3
2013
M3
2014
M3
2015
M3
Index of raw material prices2005 = 100
TOTAL
Non-energy raw materialsEnergy
Price of gold
6 Source: Bloomberg, April 2015
Depreciation of the euro
7 Source: Bank of Spain, 2015
Depreciation of the euro, with the lowest exchange rate since the spring of 2003. Greater competitiveness of European exports outside the eurozone and more expensive imports.
1,35
1,45
1,32 1,31
1,38
1,07
1,001,051,101,151,201,251,301,351,401,451,50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US dollars per euro
9,209,47
8,328,10
8,62
6,65
6,50
7,00
7,50
8,00
8,50
9,00
9,50
10,00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Yuan per euro
0,880,89
0,82
0,85 0,82
0,72
0,7
0,8
0,9
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pounds sterling per euro
125,32
120,13
107,81
130,21
141,69
127,68
100,00105,00110,00115,00120,00125,00130,00135,00140,00145,00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Japanese yen per euro
Stock market indices
8
Source: Inverco, 2015
Evolution of stock markets%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Dax 30 (Francfurt) -7.5 -43.9 7.3 22.0 22.3 -40.4 23.9 16.1 -14.7 29.1 25.5 2.7
Ibex 35 (Madrid) -21.7 -28.1 17.4 32.2 7.3 -39.4 29.8 -17.4 -13.1 -4.7 21.4 3.7
CAC 40 (Paris) -0.5 -33.7 7.6 17.5 1.3 -42.7 22.3 -6,0 -17.0 15.2 18,0 -0.5
Eurostoxx 50 (Euro) -2.7 -36.6 6.9 15.1 6.8 -44.3 22.2 -6.8 -17.1 13.8 17.9 1.2
FTSE 100 (London) -10.2 -24.6 7.7 10.7 3.8 -32.0 27.6 9.0 -5.6 5.8 14.4 -2.7
S&P (USA) -10.2 -23.3 9.3 13.6 3.5 -39.3 23.5 13.1 -0.3 11.8 31.5 11.4
Dow Jones (USA) -6.2 -16.8 3.7 16.3 6.4 -34.7 18.8 11,0 5.5 7.3 26.5 7.5
Nikkei 225 (Japan) -27.2 -18.6 7.1 6.9 -11.1 -42.1 19.0 -3.0 -17.3 22.9 56.7 7.1
Risks
9
Source: Inhouse and BBVA Research
10
SPAIN
Development of GDP
11
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE), April 2015
0.9
-0.8-1.6
2.6
-2,5
0.5
-4.3
4.1
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2015
Q1
2014
Q3
2014
Q1
2013
Q3
2013
Q1
2012
Q3
2012
Q1
2011
Q3
2011
Q1
2010
Q3
2010
Q1
2009
Q3
2009
Q1
2008
Q3
2008
Q1
2007
Q3
2007
Q1
Quarterly Annual%
Improved outlook for growth
12
The Bank of Spain predicts a rise in GDP of 2.8% in 2015 and of 2.7% in 2016, supported by an increase in investment (5.9 and 6.7%, respectively). In addition, the Bank foresees a growth in private consumption of 3.3% in 2015.
These predictions are in line with those of FUNCAS, of 2.6% (2015) and 2.6% (2016), and surpass those of the European Commission (2.3% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016), the IMF (2.5% in 2015 and 2% in 2016), and the OECD (1,7% and 1.9%).
2.82.7
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2013 2014 2015* 2016*
GFCF
Exports
GDP
* ForecastsSource: Bank of Spain, March 2015
Prices: CPI and underlying CPI
13
Source: INE, April 2015
The annual general Consumer Price Index rose from -1.07% to -0.66%. For its part, the underlying CPI (not counting energy and fresh foods) went from 0.15% to 0.20%.
CPI-0.7
Underlying0.2%
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
2015
M03
2014
M03
2013
M03
2012
M03
2011
M03
2010
M03
2009
M03
2008
M03
2007
M03
Annual development of general CPI and underlying CPI
Interest rates
14
The risk premium is around 100 basis points.
Source: Bank of Spain, April 2015
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
Return on 10-year bonds in Spain and Germany
Spain
Germany
Risk premium
Situation of public accounts (I)
15
Reform Public Administrations Necessary
fiscal reform. New measures
against fraud and the black economy.
Source: IMF, April 2015
40.5 40.9
36.7
34.836.2 36.0
37.0 37.5 37.838.3 38.9
41.1
45.8 45.6 45.447.3
44.3 43.6
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Structure of income and public spending as a % of GDP
Income Spending
From a surplus of 2% in 2006 to a deficit of 11% in 2009.
5.8% in 2014, according to Eurostat, second highest in the Eurozone after Cyprus.
The State deficit until March rose to 9,854 million euros, some 3% more than in the same period of 2014.
The public debt rose from 36.3% in 2007 to 97.7% in 2014.
16
Situation of public accounts (II)
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Public deficit, 2006-2014% GDP
Germany France
UK Spain
Source: IMF, April 2015
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Public debt, 2006-2014% GDP
FranceGermanySpainUK
Source: IMF, April 2015
The private sector reduced its debt by 477,000 million euros since the end of 2008.
Deleveraging of the private sector
17
Source: Inhouse based on data from the Bank of Spain, 2015
115,5
89,1
83,4
70,7
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% G
DP
Financing of non-financial companies and families
Companies
Families
18
Labor market (I)
Unemployment dropped in the first quarter of 2015 by 13,100 persons, the largest drop in a first quarter since 2005.
23.826.9
9.6
Unemployment rate% of total labor force
Source: EAPS 1Q2015 (INE)
19
Labor market (II)
20.1
21.6
25.0
26.1
24.4
22.2
20.520
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016*
Forecasts for the unemployment rate% of active population
* ForecastsSource: Bank of Spain, March 2015
90
95
100
105
110
T1-2
007
T2-2
007
T3-2
007
T4-2
007
T1-2
008
T2-2
008
T3-2
008
T4-2
008
T1-2
009
T2-2
009
T3-2
009
T4-2
009
T1-2
010
T2-2
010
T3-2
010
T4-2
010
T1-2
011
T2-2
011
T3-2
011
T4-2
011
T1-2
012
T2-2
012
T3-2
012
T4-2
012
T1-2
013
T2-2
013
T3-2
013
T4-2
013
T1-2
014
T2-2
014
T3-2
014
T4-2
014
Evolución costes laborales unitarios, 2007-20142010=100
Alemania
Francia
RU
España
Productivity
20
Starting in 2011, Spain will increase its productivity by reducing labor costs.
Germany
France
UK
Spain
Development of labor costs, 2007-2014
Source: OECD, 2015
21
Family net financial wealth (financial assets less debt) remains at 1.1 billion euros.
Situation of household wealth (I)
Source: Inverco and inhouse, 2015
-0.8
1.1
0.8
0.1 0.7
1.0
1.1
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
Net financial wealth of familiesBillion of euros
Deposits and cash
Other financial assets*
Financial liabilities
NET FINANCIAL WEALTH
*Other financial assets: pension funds, insurance, fixed income...
22
The net wealth of families (financial wealth plus real estate wealth without debt) doubled between 1999-2013, from 2.7 to 5.3 billion euros.
Situation of household wealth (II)
Source: Bank of Spain, Inverco and inhouse, 2015
-0.8
2.0
4.22.7
7.2
5.3
1.1
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Net wealth of familiesBillions of euros
Real estate wealth
Financial assets
Financial liabilities
NET WEALTH
Internationalization (I)
23
-10,0
0,80,1 0,4
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*
Historic change in the current account balance in 5 years. After 26 years, the Spanish economy ended 2013 and 2014
with a surplus in its current account.
Evolution of Spanish current account, 2000-2015 % GDP
Estimated* Source: IMF, 2015
24
Advance in the contribution of exports to the GDP: from 22.7 % in 2009 to 32% in 2014
Internationalization (II)
-100
102030405060708090
Po
rtu
ga
l
ESP
AÑ
A
Ho
lan
da
EEU
U*
Ale
ma
nia
Fra
nc
ia
Co
rea
*
RU
Ch
ina
*
Ch
ile
p %
X/PIB 2014 Variación 2009-2014
* 2013
Source: OECD, 2015
Exports as part of GDP
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Exports. Main European exporters vs. Spain(base 100 =1999)
World
Spain
Netherlands
Germany
Italy
UK
France
Source: WTO (2015) and in-house
Portu
gal
Spa
in
Net
herla
nds
USA
*
Ger
ma
ny
Fra
nce
Kore
a*
UK
Chi
na*
Chi
le
X/GDP 2014
Variation, 2009-2014
New markets and important growth of exports to Asia and the Americas.
Diversified and added value exports
25
Internationalization (III) Diversification –both geographically and by product– is the key to relaunching the Spanish exports.
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
EU28 America Asia Africa Rest of Europe
Rest of world
Geographical diversification%
% of total 2014 Variation 2014/2013
Source: Datacomex (2015)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Diversification by products%
% of total Variation
Source: Datacomex (2015)
Leadership in tourism– 2014 was a record year
26
Internationalization (IV)
In the first quarter of 2015 there were 10.6 million arrivals of non-residents, an increase of 5.3% over the same period of 2014, with more Asian and British citizens. In the first quarter of 2015 their spending increased by 7% with regard to the same period of 2014.
Source: WTO, 2015
27
Spanish and foreign investment
0,05,0
10,015,020,025,0
Inversores extranjeros en España% del total en 2014 y variación 2014/2013
-12-41,8 -61,4
-11,682,8
21,7
56,41.030112,6
108,2
-71,2
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
Inversión productiva (sin ETVE)
+9.8% interannual
Spanish investment overseas, 2000-2014 Millions of euros
Source: : Ministry of the Economy, Registry of Overseas Investment (2015)
Source: Ministry of the Economy, Registry of Overseas Investment (2015)
Productive investment
Foreign investors in Spain % of total in 2014 and variation 2014/2013
28
Spain’s position in international rankings
www.circulodeempresarios.org