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8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
1/23
Goals:
Walk through layered climate risk monitoringframework
Consider what actions with what info Feedback
Next steps: consolidating layers?
Interrupt Meaghan at least 2-3 timesto ask questions
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
2/23
Why layered?
Goal is to analyze risk
Climate info often tells us about changes in probabilitiesof drivers.
But not always about the hazards Need for cross-reference
Available information doesnt
fit together nicely
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
3/23
Seasonality of
Precip.
Cyclone
SeasonalityENSO Impacts
ENSO
Forecast
FloodPrecip.Cyclone Drought
SEASONAL (June / October)
(June)
STATIC
ANNUAL
REAL TIME
Cyclone Precip. Flood Drought
Mostly Regional
Mostly National
Regional and National
Regional
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
4/23
Seasonality of
Precip.
Cyclone
SeasonalityENSO Impacts
ENSO
Forecast
FloodPrecip.Cyclone Drought
SEASONAL (June / October)
(June)
STATIC
ANNUAL
REAL TIME
Cyclone Precip. Flood Drought
Mostly Regional
Mostly National
Regional and National
Regional
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
5/23
ENSOForecast
Cross Check
SeasonalRainfall?
Cyclone
Season?
ENSOImpacts?
Risk Trend?
Neutral
Increasing
Decreasing
Increasing
Increasing
Neutral
Neutral
Decreasing
Decreasing
Action?
?
?
?
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
6/23
Risk Trend?
Neutral
Increasing
Decreasing
Increasing
Increasing
Neutral
Neutral
Decreasing
Decreasing
Action?
Follow up with regional/national forecasts
Contact climate info provider (IFRC Help Desk)
Follow up with regional forecasts only
Get more details on historical El Nio impacts
Etc.
Etc.
Prec
ip.
ENSO
Cyc
lon
e
Revise contingency plan
Etc.
Etc.
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
7/23
Walking through some
currently availableclimate information layers
Static (baseline)El Nio/La Nia
SeasonalReal Time
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
8/23
Seasonality of Rainfall
QuickTime and a
decompressorare needed to see this picture.
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
9/23
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
10/23
ENSO Impacts
QuickTime and adecompressor
are needed to see this picture.
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
11/23
ENSO Impacts
QuickTime and adecompressor
are needed to see this picture.
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
12/23
Seasonality of Cyclones
(Typhoons)
No readily available map for the region
Generally
North of Eq: May - OctSouth of Eq: Nov - April
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
13/23
ENSO Forecast
QuickTime and adecompressor
are needed to see this picture.
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
14/23
ENSO Forecast
QuickTime and adecompressor
are needed to see this picture.
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
15/23
Regional Precipitation Forecast #1
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
16/23
QuickTime and adecompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Regional Precipitation Forecast #2
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
17/23
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
18/23
Challenges
Currently need to navigate among
various websites
Delivery timescales are messy
Large gaps in certain countries
What thresholds? Set up pilot countries
Tailoring information to combine layers
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
19/23
Considering the possibilities
for combining layers
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
20/23
Visualizing Seasonality
of Hazards/Disasters
Cyclone
Flood
RainySeason
Country Month
Date
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
21/23
Visualizing Impacts
# Affected
# Displaced
# Injured
# KilledDesign credits:Information Designer: Rhiannon Fox.
Assistant Professor of Comm.Design
/Art Director / Supervisor: Julia Wargaski
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
22/23
Questions?
Bring on the feedback! :)
L #1 STATIC BASELINE
8/8/2019 Quarterly Monitoring
23/23
Seasonality of
Precip.
Cyclone
SeasonalityENSO Impacts
ENSO
Forecast
FloodPrecip.Cyclone Drought
Layer # 3: SEASONAL
Layer #1: STATIC BASELINE
Layer #2: ANNUAL
Layer # 4: REAL TIME
Cyclone Precip. Flood Drought
Mostly Regional
Mostly National
Regional and National
Regional