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Quantitative/Computational Social Quantitative/Computational Social Science for the DoDScience for the DoD
AFCEA LuncheonAFCEA LuncheonNovember 17, 2011November 17, 2011
Robert Popp, PhDRobert Popp, PhDPresident & CEO, NSI Inc.President & CEO, NSI Inc.
Strategic Threat EnvironmentStrategic Threat Environment
Social Science ModelingSocial Science Modeling
• Significant complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity in national security problems
• These problems not easily reduced or amenable to classical analytical methods
• Quantitative & Computational Social Sciences provide promising new methods, models & tools to inform decision-making
• Q/CSS supplements early warning analysts who have domain knowledge and expertise
• Theory– Theoretical underpinnings drive analysis wrt data
requirements, model types and hypotheses tested– Theory must be operationalizable and falsifiable
• Data– Multiple levels: micro-macro, structural, events, …– Multidimensional: temporal, spatial, semantic, …
• Models– Multiple models lead to robust analyses – single
models result in unexpected/disastrous outcomes
Landscape of Social Science ModelingLandscape of Social Science Modeling
Q/CSS is the branch of science that investigates human/social phenomena (cognition…conflict), at all levels of data aggregation (micro…macro), based on
the direct application of tools from modern computing and quantification methods to advance the frontiers of knowledge about the social universe.
Example: Nation State InstabilityExample: Nation State Instability
• Challenge: results must be…– meaningful, believable, accurate, plausible, “actionable”– grounded in real data and reflect reality with respect to country issues– “objectively” derived based purely on models and data – not biased by modeler views– corroborative by country experts, or generate non-intuitive insights that counters
conventional wisdom and/or questions analysts’ and/or decision-makers’ assumptions
• Hypothesize Hypothesize theoriestheories of instability of instability• Develop Q/CSS Develop Q/CSS modelsmodels• Collect relevant Collect relevant datadata
• Apply, test and refine Q/CSS Apply, test and refine Q/CSS models to countries of interestmodels to countries of interest
• Generate and Generate and evaluate resultsevaluate results
Instability levelInstability level
ThailandThailand
I ndonesiaI ndonesia
State Stability System Dynamics ModelState Stability System Dynamics Model
Caution on Social Science ModelingCaution on Social Science Modeling
• 100 years of GNP vs. Energy Use data• Data appears linear and highly amenable to
regression and prediction• Several 1975 low energy use scenarios
considered to examine vulnerability to future supply constraints
• Actual results surprising and outside historical trend and 1975 low energy use scenarios
• Past experience never explored economy’s response to sustained high energy prices
– “Elasticities” (e.g., ability to employ more efficient technology) much higher than ever imagined
Social Science Modeling Value-AddSocial Science Modeling Value-Add
