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Quantitative methods for researching lives through time
Heather LaurieInstitute for Social and Economic
ResearchUniversity of Essex
Overview What do we mean by longitudinal? Distinguish method from design Cohort and panel designs What can quantitative longitudinal
studiestell us?
Introduce a new study – Understanding Society
Defining ‘longitudinal’ Term that encompasses many forms
of data and many designs Used as a catch-all for any study
that has some element of time within it
From oral histories through to qualitative analysis of life-course events and transitions
And to quantitative panel or cohort analysis of repeated observations of the same cases
Defining ‘longitudinal’ Common factors regardless of
methodology Information at or about more than one
point in time Research questions that are inherently
longitudinal in natureunderstanding the antecedents of eventsprocess and lived experience influences on decision-makingthe timing of transitions from one state to
another
A longitudinal research focus Inherently longitudinal research
questions e.g.Educational and employment outcomes
for children depending on family and social background
Labour market transitions and the impact on life time earnings, career progression and well-being
Impact of ethnicity and gender on long-term outcomes in the labour market and family life
Inter-generational transmission of attitudes, values, deprivation, wealth
Analysis across the life-course A longitudinal perspective on change
in individuals’ lives over time Recognises complex interactions
between life course domains e.g. work, living arrangements, income, leisure, health
Importance of social context e.g. household, wider social networks, local environment, and social and cultural norms.
Method or design? The design of any study depends on
the research questions you want to answer
The method you use to collect those data depends on many elements cross-sectional or longitudinalthe population of interestgeneralisation to a population vs case
studythe type of analysis needed to answer
your research questions
Quantitative design approaches Retrospective studies
Past events and transitions are recalled by respondents e.g. life time employment history
Record linkage panels From data collected for administrative
purposes e.g. taxation or social welfare system
Prospective studies Produce ‘waves’ or ‘sweeps’ of
measurement collected over a period of years
Cohort studies Often birth cohorts e.g. MCS but can be any age
group/ ELSA aged 50+ Follow up same cohort members at fairly long
intervals - e.g. NCDS now every 4 years; ELSA every two years
Birth cohorts include developmental data as well as social and economic data
Triangulation of data from parents, teachers, schools associated with cohort member
Allow observation of long-term outcomes with detailed information on childhood and family circumstances
Household panels Draw a sample at one point in time and
follow those sample members indefinitely Collect individual level data in household
context Usually interview all members of the
household Repeated measures at fixed intervals
(usually annual data collection) Annual data collection allows analysis of
short-term change Indefinite life design allows longer-term
outcomes to be observed
What do quantitative longitudinal panels offer?
Temporal information on sequence of events
Allows us to make better inferences about cause and effect
Short term dynamics of change Long term dynamics Links between current events and
outcomes and past history
What do quantitative longitudinal panels offer? Repeated observations on the same
individual controls for the effects of unmeasured heterogeneity between cases
Reduce recall error Can better understand social change
by separating out age, period and cohort effects
To establish the effect of a treatment Sampling techniques mean statistical
findings can be generalised to the whole population
Understanding Society A new household panel for the UKKey features: Large sample size of 40,000
households Includes all of UK Household focus with full age range
sample Annual interviews with all aged 10 and
over Innovation Panel for methodological
research and testing
Key features(cont) Multi-topic design to meet a wide
range of disciplinary and inter-disciplinary research needs
Ethnic minority research Biomedical research Data linkage to administrative
records Opportunities for qualitative linked
studies
Annual repeating content Basic demographic
characteristics Changes between waves -
employment, fertility, partnering, geographic mobility, health
Health status (e.g. SF12), disability,
Labour market activity and employment status, job search
Current job characteristics, basic employment conditions, hours of paid work, second jobs
Childcare, other caring within and outside household
Income and earnings Life satisfaction Political affiliation – basic
measures Transport and
communication access Education aspirations and
expectations Consumption expenditure Housing characteristics –
basic Housing expenditure Household facilities, car
ownership
Understanding Society rotating content Family and social networks outside the household Attitudes and behaviours related to environmental
issues Illicit and risky behaviour especially for young people Psychological attributes Cognitive ability measures Health outcomes and health related behaviour Quality of sleep Well-being Quality of marital relationships Risk and trust Collection of data about younger children < 10 Transition into young adulthood Discrimination and harassment Ethnic and national identity
Ethnic minority research Boost sample for five key groups in the
UK (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Caribbean, Black African, Mixed)
Increasing prominence of research into ethnic difference for understanding the make-up of UK society
Focus on issues of diversity and commonality.
Common questionnaire content across the sample for many questions
Additional questionnaire content within the ethnic minority boost
Linkage to administrative records
Ask respondents for permission to link to: Health records and hospital episodes statistics Education records Pension and state benefit records
Parents asked for permission on behalf of children < 16
Link to pupil level and school level education data each pupil in England has a Unique Pupil Number so can
follow as they progress through the school system
Link survey data to a range of geo-coded data, including environmental data
Biomedical research Collecting a wide range of
biomarkers and health indicators Opportunity to assess:
exposure and antecedent factors of health status,
understanding disease mechanisms (e.g. gene-environment interaction),
household and socioeconomic effects, analysis of outcomes using direct
assessments or data linkage.
Opens up prospects for advances at the interface between social science and biomedical research.
Research potential
Developed as a research resource for the whole user community
First data available from the UK Data Archive from early 2011
Like the British Household Panel Study(BHPS), we hope it will be widely used
ISER publications and web contact For further information about
Understanding Society see www.understandingsociety.org.uk
For ISER publications and Working Papers see www.iser.essex.ac.uk/publications