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Quantifying the sensitivity of the 1.5°C carbon budget estimate
Nadine Mengis, A.-I. Partanen, J. Jalbert, H. D. Matthews
November, 16th 2017, 7th Ouranos Symposium, Montreal
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
SPM
Summary for Policymakers
28
• A lower warming target, or a higher likelihood of remaining below a specific warming target, will require lower cumulative CO2 emissions. Accounting for warming effects of increases in non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reductions in aerosols, or the release of greenhouse gases from permafrost will also lower the cumulative CO2 emissions for a specific warming target (see Figure SPM.10). {12.5}
• A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale, except in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period. Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. {Box 6.1, 12.4, 12.5}
• It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, with sea level rise due to thermal expansion to continue for many centuries. The few available model results that go beyond 2100 indicate global mean sea level rise above the pre-industrial level by 2300 to be less than 1 m for a radiative forcing that corresponds to CO2 concentrations that peak and decline and remain below 500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP2.6. For a radiative forcing that corresponds to a CO2 concentration that is above 700 ppm but below 1500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP8.5, the projected rise is 1 m to more than 3 m (medium confidence). {13.5}
Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2040−2049). Model results over the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% yr–1 CO2 simulations), is given by the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period, emissions relative to 1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45; TS TFE.8, Figure 1}
0
1
2
3
4
51000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2)
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y re
lativ
e to
186
1–18
80 (°
C)
0 500 1000 1500 2000Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
2500
2050
2100
2100
2030
2050
2100
21002050
2030
2010
2000
1980
1890
1950
2050
RCP2.6 HistoricalRCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5
RCP range1% yr
-1 CO2
1% yr -1 CO2 range
What is the carbon budget for 1.5°C?
2
Introduction
SPM
Summary for Policymakers
28
• A lower warming target, or a higher likelihood of remaining below a specific warming target, will require lower cumulative CO2 emissions. Accounting for warming effects of increases in non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reductions in aerosols, or the release of greenhouse gases from permafrost will also lower the cumulative CO2 emissions for a specific warming target (see Figure SPM.10). {12.5}
• A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale, except in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period. Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. {Box 6.1, 12.4, 12.5}
• It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, with sea level rise due to thermal expansion to continue for many centuries. The few available model results that go beyond 2100 indicate global mean sea level rise above the pre-industrial level by 2300 to be less than 1 m for a radiative forcing that corresponds to CO2 concentrations that peak and decline and remain below 500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP2.6. For a radiative forcing that corresponds to a CO2 concentration that is above 700 ppm but below 1500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP8.5, the projected rise is 1 m to more than 3 m (medium confidence). {13.5}
Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2040−2049). Model results over the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% yr–1 CO2 simulations), is given by the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period, emissions relative to 1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45; TS TFE.8, Figure 1}
0
1
2
3
4
51000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2)
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y re
lativ
e to
186
1–18
80 (°
C)
0 500 1000 1500 2000Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
2500
2050
2100
2100
2030
2050
2100
21002050
2030
2010
2000
1980
1890
1950
2050
RCP2.6 HistoricalRCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5
RCP range1% yr
-1 CO2
1% yr -1 CO2 range
IPCC AR5, SPM
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
SPM
Summary for Policymakers
28
• A lower warming target, or a higher likelihood of remaining below a specific warming target, will require lower cumulative CO2 emissions. Accounting for warming effects of increases in non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reductions in aerosols, or the release of greenhouse gases from permafrost will also lower the cumulative CO2 emissions for a specific warming target (see Figure SPM.10). {12.5}
• A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale, except in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period. Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. {Box 6.1, 12.4, 12.5}
• It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, with sea level rise due to thermal expansion to continue for many centuries. The few available model results that go beyond 2100 indicate global mean sea level rise above the pre-industrial level by 2300 to be less than 1 m for a radiative forcing that corresponds to CO2 concentrations that peak and decline and remain below 500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP2.6. For a radiative forcing that corresponds to a CO2 concentration that is above 700 ppm but below 1500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP8.5, the projected rise is 1 m to more than 3 m (medium confidence). {13.5}
Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2040−2049). Model results over the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% yr–1 CO2 simulations), is given by the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period, emissions relative to 1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45; TS TFE.8, Figure 1}
0
1
2
3
4
51000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2)
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y re
lativ
e to
186
1–18
80 (°
C)
0 500 1000 1500 2000Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
2500
2050
2100
2100
2030
2050
2100
21002050
2030
2010
2000
1980
1890
1950
2050
RCP2.6 HistoricalRCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5
RCP range1% yr
-1 CO2
1% yr -1 CO2 range
What is the carbon budget for 1.5°C?
2
Introduction
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
SPM
Summary for Policymakers
28
• A lower warming target, or a higher likelihood of remaining below a specific warming target, will require lower cumulative CO2 emissions. Accounting for warming effects of increases in non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reductions in aerosols, or the release of greenhouse gases from permafrost will also lower the cumulative CO2 emissions for a specific warming target (see Figure SPM.10). {12.5}
• A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale, except in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period. Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. {Box 6.1, 12.4, 12.5}
• It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, with sea level rise due to thermal expansion to continue for many centuries. The few available model results that go beyond 2100 indicate global mean sea level rise above the pre-industrial level by 2300 to be less than 1 m for a radiative forcing that corresponds to CO2 concentrations that peak and decline and remain below 500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP2.6. For a radiative forcing that corresponds to a CO2 concentration that is above 700 ppm but below 1500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP8.5, the projected rise is 1 m to more than 3 m (medium confidence). {13.5}
Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2040−2049). Model results over the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% yr–1 CO2 simulations), is given by the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period, emissions relative to 1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45; TS TFE.8, Figure 1}
0
1
2
3
4
51000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2)
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y re
lativ
e to
186
1–18
80 (°
C)
0 500 1000 1500 2000Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
2500
2050
2100
2100
2030
2050
2100
21002050
2030
2010
2000
1980
1890
1950
2050
RCP2.6 HistoricalRCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5
RCP range1% yr
-1 CO2
1% yr -1 CO2 range
What is the carbon budget for 1.5°C?
• cumulative historical emissions:555±55 Pg C(Global Carbon Project, 2016)
2
Introduction
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
SPM
Summary for Policymakers
28
• A lower warming target, or a higher likelihood of remaining below a specific warming target, will require lower cumulative CO2 emissions. Accounting for warming effects of increases in non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reductions in aerosols, or the release of greenhouse gases from permafrost will also lower the cumulative CO2 emissions for a specific warming target (see Figure SPM.10). {12.5}
• A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale, except in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period. Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. {Box 6.1, 12.4, 12.5}
• It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, with sea level rise due to thermal expansion to continue for many centuries. The few available model results that go beyond 2100 indicate global mean sea level rise above the pre-industrial level by 2300 to be less than 1 m for a radiative forcing that corresponds to CO2 concentrations that peak and decline and remain below 500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP2.6. For a radiative forcing that corresponds to a CO2 concentration that is above 700 ppm but below 1500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP8.5, the projected rise is 1 m to more than 3 m (medium confidence). {13.5}
Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2040−2049). Model results over the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% yr–1 CO2 simulations), is given by the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period, emissions relative to 1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45; TS TFE.8, Figure 1}
0
1
2
3
4
51000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2)
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y re
lativ
e to
186
1–18
80 (°
C)
0 500 1000 1500 2000Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
2500
2050
2100
2100
2030
2050
2100
21002050
2030
2010
2000
1980
1890
1950
2050
RCP2.6 HistoricalRCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5
RCP range1% yr
-1 CO2
1% yr -1 CO2 range
What is the carbon budget for 1.5°C?
• cumulative historical emissions:555±55 Pg C(Global Carbon Project, 2016)
• effective TCRE from observations: 1.78°C / 1000 Pg C
2
Introduction
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
SPM
Summary for Policymakers
28
• A lower warming target, or a higher likelihood of remaining below a specific warming target, will require lower cumulative CO2 emissions. Accounting for warming effects of increases in non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reductions in aerosols, or the release of greenhouse gases from permafrost will also lower the cumulative CO2 emissions for a specific warming target (see Figure SPM.10). {12.5}
• A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale, except in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period. Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. {Box 6.1, 12.4, 12.5}
• It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, with sea level rise due to thermal expansion to continue for many centuries. The few available model results that go beyond 2100 indicate global mean sea level rise above the pre-industrial level by 2300 to be less than 1 m for a radiative forcing that corresponds to CO2 concentrations that peak and decline and remain below 500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP2.6. For a radiative forcing that corresponds to a CO2 concentration that is above 700 ppm but below 1500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP8.5, the projected rise is 1 m to more than 3 m (medium confidence). {13.5}
Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2040−2049). Model results over the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% yr–1 CO2 simulations), is given by the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period, emissions relative to 1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45; TS TFE.8, Figure 1}
0
1
2
3
4
51000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2)
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y re
lativ
e to
186
1–18
80 (°
C)
0 500 1000 1500 2000Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
2500
2050
2100
2100
2030
2050
2100
21002050
2030
2010
2000
1980
1890
1950
2050
RCP2.6 HistoricalRCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5
RCP range1% yr
-1 CO2
1% yr -1 CO2 range
What is the carbon budget for 1.5°C?
• cumulative historical emissions:555±55 Pg C(Global Carbon Project, 2016)
• effective TCRE from observations: 1.78°C / 1000 Pg C
• carbon budget for a 1.5°C warming: 845 Pg C
2
Introduction
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
SPM
Summary for Policymakers
28
• A lower warming target, or a higher likelihood of remaining below a specific warming target, will require lower cumulative CO2 emissions. Accounting for warming effects of increases in non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reductions in aerosols, or the release of greenhouse gases from permafrost will also lower the cumulative CO2 emissions for a specific warming target (see Figure SPM.10). {12.5}
• A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale, except in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period. Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. {Box 6.1, 12.4, 12.5}
• It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, with sea level rise due to thermal expansion to continue for many centuries. The few available model results that go beyond 2100 indicate global mean sea level rise above the pre-industrial level by 2300 to be less than 1 m for a radiative forcing that corresponds to CO2 concentrations that peak and decline and remain below 500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP2.6. For a radiative forcing that corresponds to a CO2 concentration that is above 700 ppm but below 1500 ppm, as in the scenario RCP8.5, the projected rise is 1 m to more than 3 m (medium confidence). {13.5}
Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2040−2049). Model results over the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% yr–1 CO2 simulations), is given by the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period, emissions relative to 1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45; TS TFE.8, Figure 1}
0
1
2
3
4
51000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2)
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y re
lativ
e to
186
1–18
80 (°
C)
0 500 1000 1500 2000Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
2500
2050
2100
2100
2030
2050
2100
21002050
2030
2010
2000
1980
1890
1950
2050
RCP2.6 HistoricalRCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5
RCP range1% yr
-1 CO2
1% yr -1 CO2 range
What is the carbon budget for 1.5°C?
• cumulative historical emissions:555±55 Pg C(Global Carbon Project, 2016)
• effective TCRE from observations: 1.78°C / 1000 Pg C
• carbon budget for a 1.5°C warming: 845 Pg C
2
Introduction
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 3
Introduction
Global carbon budget
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870
Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
The concept of carbon budgets
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 3
Introduction
Global carbon budget
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870
Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
The concept of carbon budgets
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 3
Introduction
Global carbon budget
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870
Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
The concept of carbon budgets
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 3
Introduction
Global carbon budget
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870
Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
The concept of carbon budgets
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 3
Introduction
Global carbon budget
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870
Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
The concept of carbon budgets
• ocean carbon uptake • simulated surface
temperature/circulation • biological pump
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 3
Introduction
Global carbon budget
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870
Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
The concept of carbon budgets
• ocean carbon uptake • simulated surface
temperature/circulation • biological pump
• land carbon uptake • CO2 fertilization • soil respiration • biodiversity
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 3
Introduction
Global carbon budget
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870
Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
The concept of carbon budgets
• ocean carbon uptake • simulated surface
temperature/circulation • biological pump
• land carbon uptake • CO2 fertilization • soil respiration • biodiversity
How does the carbon cycle impact future allowable carbon emissions?
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model
4
Methodology
AtmosphereSea Ice
Land
Sediment
Momentum /EnergyCarbon FluxWater
UVicESCM
MOSES & TRIFFID
Ocean Biogeochemistry & Ocean PhysicsMOM
EMBM
• Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC)
• 1.8° x 3.6° horizontal resolution
• 15 vertical ocean levels
• 5 plant functional types
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model
4
Methodology
AtmosphereSea Ice
Land
Sediment
Momentum /EnergyCarbon FluxWater
UVicESCM
MOSES & TRIFFID
Ocean Biogeochemistry & Ocean PhysicsMOM
EMBM
• Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC)
• 1.8° x 3.6° horizontal resolution
• 15 vertical ocean levels
• 5 plant functional types
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Experimental design
• prescribe temperature and diagnose fossil fuel emissions
5
Methodology
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Experimental design
• prescribe temperature and diagnose fossil fuel emissions
• historical temperature + strict guardrail of 1.5°C in 2100
5
Methodology
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Experimental design
• prescribe temperature and diagnose fossil fuel emissions
• historical temperature + strict guardrail of 1.5°C in 2100
• no temperature overshoot
5
Methodology
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
13
13.5
14
14.5
global mean air temperature
Experimental design
• prescribe temperature and diagnose fossil fuel emissions
• historical temperature + strict guardrail of 1.5°C in 2100
• no temperature overshoot
5
Methodology
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
13
13.5
14
14.5
global mean air temperature
Experimental design
• prescribe temperature and diagnose fossil fuel emissions
• historical temperature + strict guardrail of 1.5°C in 2100
• no temperature overshoot
• historical + RCP2.6 forcing following CMIP5 protocol-> land-use change-> non-CO2 GHG -> aerosols-> volcanic, solar
5
Methodology
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Constraining the perturbed parameter ensemble
• Prior knowledge on the probability of simulations from observed carbon fluxes
6
Methodology
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300a
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
A priori weights for the PPEa
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
Posterior weights for the PPEb
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300a
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
A priori weights for the PPEa
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
Posterior weights for the PPEb
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Constraining the perturbed parameter ensemble
• Prior knowledge on the probability of simulations from observed carbon fluxes
• Simulations constrained by their ability to reproduce the observed budget in 2015
6
Methodology
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300a
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
A priori weights for the PPEa
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
Posterior weights for the PPEb
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300a
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
A priori weights for the PPEa
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
Posterior weights for the PPEb
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Constraining the perturbed parameter ensemble
• Prior knowledge on the probability of simulations from observed carbon fluxes
• Simulations constrained by their ability to reproduce the observed budget in 2015
6
Methodology
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300a
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
A priori weights for the PPEa
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
Posterior weights for the PPEb
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300a
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
A priori weights for the PPEa
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
Posterior weights for the PPEb
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300a
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
A priori weights for the PPEa
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
Posterior weights for the PPEb
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
7
Results - Part I
1.5°C FF budget - probabilistic estimate
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
7
Results - Part I
cumulative fossil fuel emissions from
observations: 413±21 PgC(1850-2015)
(Global Carbon Project, 2016)
1.5°C FF budget - probabilistic estimate
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
7
Results - Part I
cumulative fossil fuel emissions from
observations: 413±21 PgC(1850-2015)
(Global Carbon Project, 2016)
1.5°C
1.5°C FF budget - probabilistic estimate
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
7
Results - Part I
cumulative fossil fuel emissions from
observations: 413±21 PgC(1850-2015)
(Global Carbon Project, 2016)
best estimate for 1.5°C budget:
469 (411,528) PgC
1.5°C
1.5°C FF budget - probabilistic estimate
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
7
Results - Part I
cumulative fossil fuel emissions from
observations: 413±21 PgC(1850-2015)
(Global Carbon Project, 2016)
best estimate for 1.5°C budget:
469 (411,528) PgC
1.5°C
1.5°C FF budget - probabilistic estimate
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
7
Results - Part I
cumulative fossil fuel emissions from
observations: 413±21 PgC(1850-2015)
(Global Carbon Project, 2016)
best estimate for 1.5°C budget:
469 (411,528) PgC
1.5°C
best estimate for the remaining 1.5°C
budget: 56 (-2,115) PgC
1.5°C FF budget - probabilistic estimate
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
FF e
mis
sion
s [P
g C
] b
pdf 2015pdf 1.5°Cobserved 2015best estimatedefault model
50 100 150 200 250 300
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 c
2015 ocean carbon uptake
2015
land
car
bon
upta
ke
1.5 Carbon Budget
best estimate
2 stds
413 Pg C
Pg C
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
7
Results - Part I
cumulative fossil fuel emissions from
observations: 413±21 PgC(1850-2015)
(Global Carbon Project, 2016)
best estimate for 1.5°C budget:
469 (411,528) PgC
1.5°C
best estimate for the remaining 1.5°C
budget: 56 (-2,115) PgC
1.5°C FF budget - probabilistic estimate
We cannot exclude the possibility, that we have already emitted all of the remaining fossil fuel
carbon budget for the 1.5°C target.
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 8
Non-CO2 contributions to the 1.5°C budget
Results - Part II
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
fossil fuel emissions: 469 PgC
1850 - 2015
1850 - 2055
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 8
Non-CO2 contributions to the 1.5°C budget
Results - Part II
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
fossil fuel emissions: 469 PgC
land-use change emissions: 228 PgC
1850 - 2015
1850 - 2055
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 8
Non-CO2 contributions to the 1.5°C budget
Results - Part II
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
fossil fuel emissions: 469 PgC
land-use change emissions: 228 PgC
equivalent CO2 emissions:
1850 - 2015
1850 - 2055
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 8
Non-CO2 contributions to the 1.5°C budget
Results - Part II
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
fossil fuel emissions: 469 PgC
land-use change emissions: 228 PgC
equivalent CO2 emissions:
1850 - 2015
1850 - 2055
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 8
Non-CO2 contributions to the 1.5°C budget
Results - Part II
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
fossil fuel emissions: 469 PgC
land-use change emissions: 228 PgC
non-CO2 greenhouse gases
345 PgC
equivalent CO2 emissions:
1850 - 2015
1850 - 2055
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 8
Non-CO2 contributions to the 1.5°C budget
Results - Part II
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
fossil fuel emissions: 469 PgC
land-use change emissions: 228 PgC
non-CO2 greenhouse gases
345 PgC
equivalent CO2 emissions:
1850 - 2015
1850 - 2055
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 8
Non-CO2 contributions to the 1.5°C budget
Results - Part II
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
fossil fuel emissions: 469 PgC
land-use change emissions: 228 PgC
non-CO2 greenhouse gases
345 PgC
direct and indirect aerosols 182 PgC
equivalent CO2 emissions:
1850 - 2015
1850 - 2055
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected] 8
Non-CO2 contributions to the 1.5°C budget
Results - Part II
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
fossil fuel emissions: 469 PgC
land-use change emissions: 228 PgC
non-CO2 greenhouse gases
345 PgC
direct and indirect aerosols 182 PgC
equivalent CO2 emissions:
1850 - 2015
1850 - 2055
The future development of LUC, non-CO2 GHG and aerosols has a substantial influence on the fossil
fuel carbon budget.
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Cum
ulat
ive
emis
sion
(Pg
C)
Year
Temperature stabilization carbon budget
9
Results - Part III
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
13
13.5
14
14.5
global mean air temperature
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Cum
ulat
ive
emis
sion
(Pg
C)
Year
Temperature stabilization carbon budget
9
Results - Part III
?
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
13
13.5
14
14.5
global mean air temperature
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Non-CO2 contributions - Scenario uncertainty
10
Results - Part III
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−200 −100 1.5 CCB 100 200 300
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
451 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
0 Pg C
2015
foss
il em
issi
ons
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
−200
0
200
400
600
800a
PgC
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10b
time
PgC
yr−1
fossil CO2woCH4woN2OwoKyotowoMontrealwoOzonewoCH4oxsum nonCO2 GHGwoAerosolswoLUC
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Non-CO2 contributions - Scenario uncertainty
10
Results - Part III
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−200 −100 1.5 CCB 100 200 300
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
451 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
0 Pg C
2015
foss
il em
issi
ons
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
−200
0
200
400
600
800a
PgC
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10b
time
PgC
yr−1
fossil CO2woCH4woN2OwoKyotowoMontrealwoOzonewoCH4oxsum nonCO2 GHGwoAerosolswoLUC
2015 1.5°C
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Non-CO2 contributions - Scenario uncertainty
10
Results - Part III
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−200 −100 1.5 CCB 100 200 300
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
451 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
0 Pg C
2015
foss
il em
issi
ons
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
−200
0
200
400
600
800a
PgC
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10b
time
PgC
yr−1
fossil CO2woCH4woN2OwoKyotowoMontrealwoOzonewoCH4oxsum nonCO2 GHGwoAerosolswoLUC
2015 1.5°C stabilization
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Non-CO2 contributions - Scenario uncertainty
10
Results - Part III
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−200 −100 1.5 CCB 100 200 300
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
451 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
0 Pg C
2015
foss
il em
issi
ons
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
−200
0
200
400
600
800a
PgC
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10b
time
PgC
yr−1
fossil CO2woCH4woN2OwoKyotowoMontrealwoOzonewoCH4oxsum nonCO2 GHGwoAerosolswoLUC
2015 1.5°C stabilization
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Non-CO2 contributions - Scenario uncertainty
10
Results - Part III
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−200 −100 1.5 CCB 100 200 300
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
451 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
0 Pg C
2015
foss
il em
issi
ons
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
−200
0
200
400
600
800a
PgC
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10b
time
PgC
yr−1
fossil CO2woCH4woN2OwoKyotowoMontrealwoOzonewoCH4oxsum nonCO2 GHGwoAerosolswoLUC
2015 1.5°C stabilization
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Non-CO2 contributions - Scenario uncertainty
10
Results - Part III
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−200 −100 1.5 CCB 100 200 300
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
451 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
0 Pg C
2015
foss
il em
issi
ons
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
−200
0
200
400
600
800a
PgC
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10b
time
PgC
yr−1
fossil CO2woCH4woN2OwoKyotowoMontrealwoOzonewoCH4oxsum nonCO2 GHGwoAerosolswoLUC
2015 1.5°C stabilization
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Non-CO2 contributions - Scenario uncertainty
10
Results - Part III
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−200 −100 1.5 CCB 100 200 300
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
451 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
0 Pg C
2015
foss
il em
issi
ons
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
−200
0
200
400
600
800a
PgC
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10b
time
PgC
yr−1
fossil CO2woCH4woN2OwoKyotowoMontrealwoOzonewoCH4oxsum nonCO2 GHGwoAerosolswoLUC
The sum of LUC, non-CO2 GHG and aerosols cause an
overall positive climate forcing.
2015 1.5°C stabilization
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Carbon cycle feedback
11
Results - Part III
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6aLand + Ocean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6bOcean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6cLand carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6aLand + Ocean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6bOcean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6cLand carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Carbon cycle feedback
11
Results - Part III
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6aLand + Ocean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6bOcean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6cLand carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6aLand + Ocean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6bOcean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6cLand carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Carbon cycle feedback
11
Results - Part III
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6aLand + Ocean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6bOcean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6cLand carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6aLand + Ocean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6bOcean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6cLand carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Carbon cycle feedback
11
Results - Part III
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6aLand + Ocean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6bOcean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6cLand carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6aLand + Ocean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6bOcean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6cLand carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Carbon cycle feedback
11
Results - Part III
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6aLand + Ocean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6bOcean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6cLand carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6aLand + Ocean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6bOcean carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150−2
0
2
4
6cLand carbon flux [Pg C / yr]
Temperature stabilization requires negative CO2 emissions, to compensate 1) for the residual positive climate forcing and 2) for the carbon
released from the natural system.
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Conclusions• It is possible that we have
already emitted all of the remaining FF budget.
12
Conclusions
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Conclusions• It is possible that we have
already emitted all of the remaining FF budget.
12
Conclusions
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Conclusions• It is possible that we have
already emitted all of the remaining FF budget.
• Scenario uncertainty of LUC, non-CO2 GHG and aerosols strongly influence the remaining fossil fuel budget.
12
Conclusions
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Conclusions• It is possible that we have
already emitted all of the remaining FF budget.
• Scenario uncertainty of LUC, non-CO2 GHG and aerosols strongly influence the remaining fossil fuel budget.
12
Conclusions
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Conclusions• It is possible that we have
already emitted all of the remaining FF budget.
• Scenario uncertainty of LUC, non-CO2 GHG and aerosols strongly influence the remaining fossil fuel budget.
• Negative CO2 emissions would be needed for a temperature stabilization in the presence of residual climate forcing.
12
Conclusions
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Conclusions• It is possible that we have
already emitted all of the remaining FF budget.
• Scenario uncertainty of LUC, non-CO2 GHG and aerosols strongly influence the remaining fossil fuel budget.
• Negative CO2 emissions would be needed for a temperature stabilization in the presence of residual climate forcing.
12
Conclusions
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Cum
ulat
ive
emis
sion
(Pg
C)
Year
!
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
−300
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
400
500a
cum
ulat
ive
[PgC
]
CO2 and equivalent CO2 emissions
−300 −200 −100 1.5 FF 100 200 300b
CH4N2O
Fluorinated GHGsMontreal GHGs
OzoneCH4ox
469 Pg C0 Pg CLUC
sum nonCO2 GHGs
Aerosols
FF emissions
Nadine Mengis, Concordia University, [email protected]
Merci beaucoup
Results from:Mengis, N., A.-I. Partanen, J. Jalbert, and H. D. Matthews, „1.5°C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing“ (submitted to Nature Communications)
13
