Quant Trader

Presented by Quant Trade Technologies, Inc.

Market Forecasting and Optimization of Trading Models

Trading Strategies Backtesting Engine Expert Optimization Portfolio Analysis Trading Script

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Algorithmic trading strategies

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Premium selection of algorithms

Self-optimizing ARIMA expert Finite Impulse Response Neural Network Finite State Markov Automation Stepwise Best Regression Square Root Regression Square Regression Logistic Regression

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Attaching predictor to chart

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Open new chart Chart analysis Expert Adviser Algorithm list

• Forecast line appears on the chart • Only one forecast allowed at any moment • Select “None” to remove forecast

Example of forecast on chart

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Exclusive trading strategies

Signals derived from market forecasts Selectable forecasting algorithm Tailored for automatic optimization Universal for all markets and time frames Simple technical rules Easy statistical interpretation

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Selecting trading strategy

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Open new chart Chart analysis Expert Adviser Strategy list

• Trading advises appear on the chart • Only one strategy allowed at any moment • Select “None” to cleanup advises

Example of strategy on chart

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Symbols for trading signals

Trading signals depicted as triangles Color indicates signal type

Buy (Green) Sell short (Red) Exit short (Blue) Exit long (Gray)

Only one signal is allowed per bar

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Forecast driven strategies

Direct forecast – directly trade on forecasted price expectation

Exact forecast change – filter our direct forecast trades with trading commissions

Exact forecast threshold – filter our direct forecast trades with entry and exit thresholds (equal to point size in case of futures)

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Forecast and trend hybrid Exact price change – combined forecast

and price correlation trading with commissions and thresholds

Safe balance – enter on forecasted price against current price and exit on the actual price trend observed

Safe exit – combined forecast and price correlation trend over several bars with commissions and thresholds 12

Intrinsic and custom strategies

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• Two types of trading strategies Forecast driven built-in strategies Trading script custom strategies

• Standard strategies on top of the list Forecast required

• Custom strategies on bottom of the list

Strategy Backtesting Engine

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Backtesting engine

All standard trading statistics Separate analysis of long and short

trades Full list of trade executions Profit / loss evaluation per trade Profitability chart of capital evolution Account for entry / exit commissions Fixed capital and capitalization tests

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Creating backtest report

Create or open a chart Select forecasting algorithm Select trading strategy or script User charting ribbon: Chart analysis (ribbon tab) View (ribbon group) Performance (button)

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Backtesting results

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Backtesting parameters

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• Account: Number of shares to trade • Commission / trade : Trading commissions

on entry and exit from the trade • Minimum change: Minimum price

change to trigger trading signal. This should be equal to point value, if any

Expert System for Strategy Optimization

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Expert strategy scanner

Universal strategy expert scanner Scans for optimal combination of:

Trading strategy Forecasting algorithm

Winner selection based on a number of advanced trading statistics

Intelligent randomized scan 20

Expert strategy scanner

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Watch progress bar while expert system scans strategies to find an optimal one

Open new chart Chart analysis Expert Adviser Expert Adviser

Expert strategy scanner results

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• On scan completion appears message with optimal strategy and algorithm

• Confirm to apply expert selection to chart

Expert strategy on chart

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Expert strategy performance

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Tools for Portfolio Analysis

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Portfolio optimizer Summary view of all symbols in portfolio Forecasted price and change per symbol Expert advise on trade execution Distinctive coloring of signals

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Open portfolio optimizer

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Home & Basics Analysis (group) Radar (button)

Add symbols to portfolio: 1. Home & Basics > Symbol > Add to Favorites 2. Data manager > Add selected to portfolio

Batch expert scan

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Batch expert scan on all symbols in portfolio for the best predictor and strategy combination

Open new chart Chart analysis Expert Adviser Expert Adviser

Portfolio affinity matrix

Powerful tool for portfolio optimization Exclude closely correlated symbols Correlated symbols similarly behave on

market changes It decreases stability of portfolio Keep portfolio of less correlated symbols Increase probability of some symbols

growing while others downtrend 29

Multiple affinity measures

Correlation radius Kendall rank correlation Normal absolute difference Kruskal-Wallis test Friedman test Hurst coefficient H parameter

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• Correlation • Asymmetry • Excess

Portfolio affinity matrix example

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Log relation analysis

Discovery of symbol dependencies Calculates cross correlation of selected

symbol with other symbols in portfolio over a range of time lags

If strong correlation exists, then correlated symbol can serve as a predictor in multiple regression model

Multiple classical and nonparametric proximity measures

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Log relation analysis example

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Scripting of Trading Strategies

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Trading script

Easy scripting of your trading strategies Scripting language for auto-trading Non-procedural scientific language Vector programming language Designed specifically for developing of

trading systems Large collection of built-in vector

operations and technical indicators 35

Trading script components Every strategy consists of four scripts:

Buy script Sell script Exit long script Exit short script

All strategy scripts are optional At least one entry and exit script should be

filled for the strategy to execute 36

Trading script editor

Centralized management of scripts Persistent script storage Trading strategy script library Editing of buy/sell and entry/exit in four

side-by-side windows Side bar script function guide with

immediate insertion capability Script validation with error reporting

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Trading script editor screen

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New trading script creation

Strategy library > Add Give a name to new strategy Fill script code for buy/sell and enter/exit

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• Validate and save the strategy

• Strategy appears in strategy list

Selector of trading script Scripts appear on bottom of strategy list Scripts are below “Trading Script” item

Scripts do not need forecasting algorithm Algorithm field can be left empty

Scripts appear in the list when added to trading script library

Scripts disappear from the list when removed from trading script library

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Pioneers in the fractal exploration of financial markets

Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. You should consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. You must review the customer account agreement and risk disclosure prior to establishing an account. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of futures results. The risk of loss in trading futures or options can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. Information contained, viewed, sent or attached is considered a solicitation for business.

Quant Trade, LLC has been a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) since September 4, 2007 and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA).

Copyright @ 2012 Quant Trade, LLC. All rights reserved. No part of the materials including graphics or logos, available in this Web site may be copied, reproduced, translated or reduced to any electronic medium or machine-readable form, in whole or in part without written permission.

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