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Example: 100% RES electricity scenario• Step1:macro-arealevel
Ö Computationofenergyshares(pertechnology)andimbalancesforeach macro-area (based upon weighting functions). Preliminaryallocationofthecorrespondinggenerationcapacities
Ö Finalallocationofthegenerationcapacities(pertechnology)baseduponANTARESruns(simulationofsystemadequacyduringoneyearatatimeresolutionofonehourusingamarketsimulator)
Ö Controlofenergyimbalances(coherencywithscenario)
• Step2:country-levelÖ Useresultsfromstep1withsamealgorithmatcountrylevelÖ Additionalconstraints:NREAPfor2020foreachcountry
• Step3:clusterlevelÖ Useresultsfromstep2withsamealgorithmatclusterlevelÖ Additionalconstraints:urbanareasandnaturalreserves
• Resultsforstep3:Energy shares per technology with imbalances
Final allocation of generation capacities per technology
e-Highway 2050Modular Development Plan
of the pan-European Transmission System for 2050
e-Highway2050 results on scenarios setup and quantification:• Challengingenergyscenariosforthepan-Europeantransmissionsystemby2050• DecompositionofEuropein96clusters• Relatedmethodologiesforlong-termenergyscenariobuildingandtheirquantification
Challenging energy scenarios at 2050• AScenarioisacombinationofaStrategy
(endogeneousoptions:uponwhichdecisionmakershavecontrol)usedwithinaFuture(exogeneousuncertainties:uponwhichdecisionmakershavenocontrol)
• Scenariosetupresultsfrom5futuresand6strategies,i.e.30possiblescenarios
• Eachscenariomustbechallengingforthepowersystemat2050
Selected scenarios at 2050• Two-stepfilteringprocess:from30to5
challengingscenarios.• Step1:spuriousscenarios
Ö NUCandCCS:futures(publicperception)andstrategies(foreseendeployment)arecontradictoryfornuclearandCCS.
Ö NoPolicy:futures(marketdriven)andstrategies(strongpolicyframework)arecontradictory.
Ö Non-logical:contradictoryfuturesandstrategies(simultaneousdevelopmentofrenewablesandstorageatsmallandlargescales).
Contact : [email protected] Web: www.e-highway2050.eu
Follow us on Twitter: @e_Highway2050
Project coordinator:
• Step2:selectionofthe5mostchallengingscenariosaccordingto10parametersmeasuringtheirimpactonthepowersystem
Decomposition of Europe into 96 clusters• Two-stepapproach(clustersmustnotbetoo
small,bebasedonunifiedstandardsandgridcharacteristics,bescenarioindependent)
Ö Step 1: clustering algorithm aggregating smaller areas with a Kmeansfunction(withweightingfunctionsonspecificcriteriasuchas population, potential of RES generation, land use, thermalgenerationcapacity,etc.).
Ö Step2:expertviewofTSOs(sanitycheck).
Scenarios quantification methodology• Atop-downapproachbuiltaround3stepshas
beendevelopedtoquantifythefivescenariosintermsofinstalledcapacitiesforeachclusterwithacopperplateassumptionÖ Initialization:computeenergytargetpergenerationtechnologyfromdemandatEuropeanlevel
Ö Step1:installedcapacitiesineachmacro-area(9macro-areas)
Ö Step2:installedcapacitiesineachcountry(33countries)
Ö Step3:installedcapacitiesforeachcluster(96clusters)
Qualitative scenarios
European clusters
Environmentalvalidation
Grid simulations
Cost BenefitAnalysis
Modularplan
Newmethodologies
Technology database
Quantifiedscenarios
STEP1:fromEuropetoMacro-areas STEP2:fromMacro-areatoCountrylevel
STEP3:fromCountrytoClusterlevel
Cluster
Africa % EU load: 3 %
47%
22%
10%
0%
0%
21%
Central Europe
59%14%
10%
0%0%
17%
East Europe
34%
3%1%
0%0%
62%
North Europe
29%
32%9%
0%
0%
30%
South Europe
37%
37%
9%
0% 17%
South West Europe
63%20%
7%
0% 1%9%
West Europe
51%22%
6%
0%0%
21%
X-7 - European Energy Share
WindSolar(withCSP)BiomassNuclearThermalHydro
Load: 972 TWh Balance: -34%
Load: 567 TWh Balance: -11%
Load: 667 TWh Balance: -20%
Load: 303 TWh Balance: 86%
Load: 431 TWh Balance: 4%
Load: 1416 TWh Balance: -16%
North Sea % EU-load: 11%
Work Package leaders:
0 GW
100 GW
200 GW
300 GW
Wind PV CSP
Biom
as
Wind PV CSP
Biom
as
Wind PV CSP
Biom
as
Wind PV CSP
Biom
as
Wind PV CSP
Biom
as
Wind PV CSP
Biom
as
WesternEurope South-WesternEurope CentralEurope NorthernEurope EasternEurope SouthEurope
Potential - 2050 today - 2012 NREAP - 2020 X-7
NorthSea
North Africa
West Europe
East Europe
Central Europe
Nord Europe
South West Europe South
Europe
ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sSeventhProgrammeforresearch,technologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationunderGrantAgreementn°308908
