Qam Technical Analysis Note Gs Feb 2012

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QAM RESEARCH

GOLDMAN SACHS

QAM Technical Analysis Note Conclusions

QAM Research

February 2012

This QAM Audit Conclusion Note presents our view of Goldman Sachs stock. The current move is

structurally bullish and should take Goldman up to a level between USD 200 to USD 230.


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DISCLAIMER

QAM Research is an independent research house unaffiliated with any financial institution.

Business, trading and investment are inherently risky endeavors. This note and other texts,

templates, business strategies, research, trade ideas, investment ideas, methodology,

workshops, products and any other material and information developed, marketed, delivered to

clients by QAM Research are for information purposes only and reflect the opinion of QAM

Research.

This note has been developed on the basis of information available in the public domain and

may contain forward looking statements that may or may not materialize.

All clients, readers et. al. acknowledge and agree that they are themselves responsible for all

their business, trading and investment decisions and do not hold QAM Research accountable

for any of their action and/or actions whatsoever.

All rights reserved.re made as to the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information

presented herein. The author is neither liable nor responsible for any actions undertaken by the reader

whatsoever. This Strategy Note analyses the current Cotton market price action and develops an

actionable strategy in line with Strategy Delta Protocol.


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GOLDMAN SACHS

INTRODUCTION TO NOTE

This Note analyses Goldman Sachs stock from a technical analysis perspective using the QAM

Trading Templates 1.4b protocol.

The Note will analyze the Goldman stock as per following protocol:

ANALYSIS

Demand & Supply

Adjusted Elliott Wave Analysis

Price & Time Merging Slopes

MACD & TRIX

RSI

Exponential Moving Averages

TRADE TRIGGERS

Candlestick Triggers Time Triggers

ACTUAL TRADING / CONCLUSION (IF NO TRADE IDENTIFIED)

Trade Planning

Trade Execution

Conclusion


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TRADING FLOAT DEMAND SUPPLY STRUCTURE

GS has exhibited major demand for stock at USD 40 and major supply of stock at USD 200 on

weekly charts.

The bounce at USD 80 is not historically proven but may be taken as a demand level unless

proved otherwise by analysis.

If USD 80 is a genuine demand level, then GS is posed to advance during the current months

as traders enter long positions due to sustained bullish bias.

The question is : Is the demand around USD 80 genuine or not ?


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Here we take a look at Goldman Sachs daily charts which give us a short term perspective on

the stock.

Respect of USD 85 is evident on three different occasions and in three different monthsi.e. October, November and December 2011.

We will conclude that a bottom has been built at USD 85 level and this can be construed as a

genuine demand level.

Furthermore, the move up from USD 85 has a sharp incline, hence it should be understood as

structural rather than technical or corrective.


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ELLIOT WAVE STRUCTURES

It is fairly evident from the above chart that moves marked by green lines are impulsive and the

move marked by the red line in corrective.

Possibilities of further price action as per wave analysis are :

1. An impulsive, fast move up followed by a major impulsive decline (Scenario A)

2. An impulsive fast move up as a continuation of a macro bull cycle followed by a

corrective move in a bullish scenario. (Scenario B)

If a bottom has been formed around USD 85, then we now have a bullish move materializing

currently.


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The weekly charts indicate a bullish move next. And a look at the above daily chart tends to

corroborate the same as we may be looking at a strong bullish move next.

Combining the mathematics evident in both weekly and daily charts, tentative ending points forthis current major 3rd wave could be :

BETWEEN USD 200 TO USD 230

From a demand supply perspective, we may be looking at a move up to USD140, a correction,

and then a significant move upwards.


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PRICE & TIME MERGING SLOPES

Price & Time Merging Slopes combine the forces of price and time and can force strong moves.

Price & Time Merging Slopes identified affecting GS stock prices are shown in green and they

are indicating an area of probable rise from current levels to USD 230 with corrective stoppages

around USD 140 and USD 200.

We will conclude that Price & Time Merging Slopes on weekly chart are corroborating our

bullish view on GS stock.

Relevant slopes on daily chart given on the next page also confirm the view that the current

move is strongly bullish and should take the GS stock much higher.


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PRICE DERIVATIVE & INDICATORS

MACD, TRIX, RSI, EMA

Here we are looking at historical weekly price indicators as follows:

MACD is in bearish territory but has curled up to reach the 0 line, hence, is at a critical level.

However, it in itself is not denoting a bullish or a bearish move as the up curl is very soft in

nature.

TRIX is also in bearish territory and seems to be bottoming out. It does not indicate or confirm

anything yet.

RSI is clearly and strongly bullish and we would tend to expect that the strength of RSIs move

should carry other indicators into bullish territory as well.

Price as compared to EMA line is also denoting a bullish price structure.

The above indicators based on weekly chart indicate a bullish move right at its start.


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Here we are looking at historical daily price indicators as follows:

MACD is in bullish territory but has curled down indicating a temporary correction as long as it

stays above 0 line.

TRIX is clearly in bullish territory.

RSI has just crossed below 50 and is denoting a correction in line with MACD.

Price as compared to EMA line is whiplashing and the bullish move is taking a breather.

Combining the weekly and daily indicators, we can conclude that though the current

move in GS stock is structurally bullish, however, prices might take a correction and

head lower giving a better buying opportunity.


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TRADE TRIGGERS CANDLESTICK AND TIME

Since we are looking at a correction in a structurally bullish movement, therefore, we are notlooking for a trade trigger here. However, a look at candlesticks shows a couple of DOJIs on

weekly charts which indicates a lack of decision and direction.

Combining that with the MACD at the 0 line shows that the market is looking for a break or a

correction here and we should be looking for a trade trigger subsequent to this expected

correction.

We would like to refer again to the weekly chart here for some time analysis.

The down wave which has been marked by the blue arrow constitutes a perfectly complete time

factor and we can take that as a completion of the downside and a bottom formation around

USD 85 level.

The subsequent move has to be bullish.


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CONCLUSION

The preceding analysis has identified a structural bullish move, however, an actionabletrade is not available right now.

We expect a correction and need to monitor for completion of this correction which may

be the right time and level to initiate a medium term long position.

Documents

Qam Technical Analysis Note Gs Feb 2012