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Q4 & Full Year 2019Earnings PresentationFebruary 5, 2020
Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information
2
Notices
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.
2019 Financial and Operational Highlights
3
Highlights
• Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $138 million and an adjusted loss of $0.37 per diluted
share
• Reduced North American unit manufacturing costs by 1% despite significant
production curtailments throughout the year
• Record annual production at four mills (two in North America, two in Europe)
• Termed out 2020 senior secured notes to 2027 at 5.75% coupon, upsized principal
by $110 million to bolster liquidity
• Returned $130 million in cash to shareholders through dividends and share
repurchases
• Declared quarterly variable dividend of C $0.20 per share for shareholders of record
on February 28, 2020
US Housing Starts
4
Business Drivers
Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted
• US housing starts rose 3% in 2019, and economists are forecasting another 3% increase in starts this year
• December 2019 seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts was 1.61 million, and rate of permits was 1.42 million
(in millions)
(1) Based on US housing economists’ forecasts.
(1)
243
211
188
217223
351
210203
197186
168
199
315
187184
160153
164
190
307
166
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2018 2019
North Central
South East
Western Canada
North American Benchmark OSB Prices
5
Business Drivers
Spread SE vs NC 40 14 2 49 24 36 23
Spread WC vs NC 59 51 35 53 33 44 44
Source: Random Lengths
US$
/Msf
-7/1
6”
European Indicative OSB Price(1)
6
Business Drivers
€/m
3
(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market.
299
287 285
269
247
294
274
200
225
250
275
300
325
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2018 2019
Financial Summary
7
Financials
(1) The Company recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $80 million (pre-tax) against the carrying value of the 100 Mile House, BC mill’s fixed assets as at December 31, 2018, and a non-cash impairment charge of $10 million (pre-tax) against the carrying value of certain of the Cordele, GA mill’s production equipment in the third quarter of 2019.
(2) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate (2019 and 2018 - 26%). Q1 to Q3 of 2018 were based on a rate of 27% and a true-up for the full year rate of 26% was reflected in Q4.
(US $ millions, except per share information)
Q4 Q3 Q4
2019 2019 2018 2019 2018Sales $ 373 $ 435 $ 501 $ 1,731 $ 2,424Adjusted EBITDA
North America 20 24 50 85 652Europe 11 11 24 64 86Unallocated (4) (2) (4) (11) (14)
Total 27 33 70 138 724
(Loss) earnings $ (12) $ (17) $ (28) $ (42) $ 371Adjusted for:
Impairment of assets(1) - 10 80 10 80Loss on disposal of assets 2 - 2 3 2Stock-based compensation and related costs 1 - - 3 4
Costs on early extinguishment of 2020 Notes - - - 10 -
Costs related to 100 Mile House indefinite curtailment - - - 2 -Reported income tax (recovery) expense (6) (6) (26) (27) 100
Adjusted pre-tax (loss) earnings (15) (13) 28 (41) 557Income tax recovery (expense) at statutory rate(2) 4 4 (2) 11 (145)
Adjusted (loss) earnings (11) (9) 26 (30) 412
Adjusted EPS, basic (0.13) (0.11) 0.30 (0.37) 4.76
Adjusted EPS, diluted (0.13) (0.11) 0.30 (0.37) 4.74
Adjusted EBITDA Variance
8
Financials
(US $ millions)
Q4 2019 Q4 2019 2019
vs. vs. vs.Q3 2019 Q4 2018 2018
Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 27 $ 27 $ 138
Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 33 70 724
Variance (6) (43) (586)
Mill nets(1) 11 (50) (592)
Volume(2) (20) (21) (27)
Key input prices(3) 2 3 (2)
Key input usage(3) (6) (2) (9)
Mill profit share and bonus (2) 5 35
Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) 9 22 9
Total $ (6) $ (43) $ (586)
(1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of changes in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs)divided by shipment volumes.
(2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products.(3) The key inputs include fibre, resin, wax and energy.(4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, maintenance, and costs to ramp up the new Inverness,
Scotland line and the one-time impact of adopting the new lease standard in 2019.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
9
Financials
(US $ millions, except per share information)
2020 Target 2019 2018
Cash provided by operating activities before cash taxes and OWC changes $ 93 $ 686
Cash taxes, net (42) (117)
Operating working capital changes (32) 39
Cash provided by operating activities 19 608
Cash provided by operating activities per share 0.23 7.03
Operating working capital 120 88
Additions to PP&E and intangible assets 100 144 205
Regular capital expenditures, including investment in intangible assets 92 166
Investment in Inverness project 28 12
Investment in Chambord rebuild 24 27
Balance Sheet
10
Financials
(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted) Bank Covenant
Dec 31,
2019
Oct 5,
2019
Dec 31,
2018
Long-term debt, principal value $ 665 $ 665 $ 555
Add: Other long-term debt 68 27 -
Less: Cash and cash equivalents (20) (3) (128)
Net debt 713 689 427
Less: Other long-term debt (68) (27) -
Add: Other liabilities classified as debt for financial covenant purposes
2 2 -
Add: Letters of credit and guarantees 8 11 8
Net debt for financial covenant purposes 655 675 435
Tangible net worth Min. $500 999 1,028 1,132
Net debt to capitalization, book basis Max. 65% 40% 40% 28%
Liquidity of $272 million = $20 million in cash + $237 million in revolving bank lines+ $15 million undrawn A/R securitization
Appendices
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
An
nu
al A
vera
ge N
C P
rice
US$
pe
r M
sf 7
/16
"
Average: $248
Historical North American OSB Prices
12
Appendices
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths
Q1 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226 293 370 211
Q2 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264 330 426 188
Q3 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301 409 363 217
Q4 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285 379 243 223
Average 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269 353 351 210
Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at February 4, 2020. It is not exhaustive.
Forecast North American OSB Prices
13
Appendices
Analyst 2020E 2021E
Seaport Global 299 -
Vertical Research Partners 290 335
TD Securities 285 275
Scotiabank 283 295
CIBC World Markets 275 245
Raymond James 270 -
BMO Capital Markets 260 284
RBC Capital Markets 250 265
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 243 239
Average 273 277
Annual Average
North Central
Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”
North American OSB Industry Stated Capacity of 27 Bsf
14
Appendices
Note: Excludes OSB siding production and capacity.
Source: APA, company documents and other public filings
33 Mills in Operation
5 Mills Idle
North American OSB Installed Capacity:
11 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13 & 2017/18
Norbord Mill
Financial Sensitivities
15
Appendices
Exposure Change
Adjusted EBITDA Impact
(US$ millions)
North American OSB (1) (2) $10 per Msf-7/16” + $64
European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $11
Canadian dollar (1),(3) $0.01 per C$ + $6
Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1
(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the curtailed Chambord, Quebec and 100 Mile House, British Columbia mills and Line 1 at the Cordele, Georgia mill). Impact on Adjusted EBITDA of a $10 per Msf-7/16” change is ± $50 million based on the last twelve months of production at December 31, 2019.Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at December 31, 2019 – Canada C$15 million and Belgium €30 million.
(2) Estimated impact of change in Norbord’s realized North American OSB price.
(3) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares and income tax payments).