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Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information
2
Notices
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.
2018 Financial and Operational Highlights
3
Highlights
• Generated record Adjusted EBITDA of $724 million, an 8% increase year-over-year
• Adjusted earnings of $4.74 per diluted share, a 6% increase over 2017
• European EBITDA more than doubled year-over-year to $86 million
• Record annual production at seven mills
• Returned over $500 million in cash to shareholders through dividends and share
repurchases
• Delivered strong safety performance with OSHA recordable injury rate of 0.78
• Declared quarterly dividend of C $0.40 per share for shareholders of record on
March 1, 2019
0.931.01
1.111.17 1.20
1.26 1.28
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US Housing Starts
4
Business Drivers
Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted
As of November 2018, year-to-date US housing starts were up 5% compared to 2017, with single-family starts 4% higher.
(in millions)
(2) Based on US housing economists’ forecasts.
(2)
(1) November 2018 seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Full-year housing starts data for 2018 has not yet been published due to the US government shutdown.
(1)
379370
426
363
243
353 351355
331
419
305
203
330
315328
359
403
281
184
326
307
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2017 2018
North Central
South East
Western Canada
North American Benchmark OSB Prices
5
Business Drivers
Spread SE vs NC 24 39 7 58 40 23 36
Spread WC vs NC 51 11 23 82 59 27 44
Source: Random Lengths
US$
/Msf
-7/1
6”
European Indicative OSB Price(1)
6
Business Drivers
€/m
3
(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market.
262
274
298
305299
239
294
200
225
250
275
300
325
Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 2017 2018
Financial Summary
7
Financials
(1) The Company recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $80 million (pre-tax) against the carrying value of the 100 Mile House, BC mill’s fixed assets as at December 31, 2018.(2) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate (2018 - 26%; 2017 - 27%). Q1 to Q3 of 2018 were based on the 27% rate and a true-up for the full year rate
of 26% was reflected in Q4.
(US $ millions, except per share information)
Q4 Q3 Q4
2018 2018 2017 2018 2017Sales $ 501 $ 640 $ 596 $ 2,424 $ 2,177Adjusted EBITDA
North America 50 190 195 652 638Europe 24 23 12 86 41Unallocated (4) (2) (3) (14) (7)
Total 70 211 204 724 672
(Loss) earnings $ (28) $ 130 $ 160 $ 371 $ 436Adjusted for:
Impairment of assets(1) 80 - - 80 -Loss on disposal of assets 2 - 3 2 12Stock-based compensation and related costs - 2 - 4 3
Pre-operating costs related to Inverness project - - - - 1
Reported income tax (recovery) expense (26) 37 6 100 81
Adjusted pre-tax earnings 28 169 169 557 533Income tax expense at statutory rate(2) (2) (46) (46) (145) (144)
Adjusted earnings 26 123 123 412 389
Adjusted EPS, basic 0.30 1.42 1.42 4.76 4.51Adjusted EPS, diluted 0.30 1.41 1.41 4.74 4.49
Adjusted EBITDA Variance
8
Financials
(US $ millions)
Q4 2018 Q4 2018 2018
vs. vs. vs.Q3 2018 Q4 2017 2017
Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 70 $ 70 $ 724
Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 211 204 672
Variance (141) (134) 52
Mill nets(1) (110) (112) 100
Volume(2) (18) (4) 46
Key input prices(3) (3) (13) (44)
Key input usage(3) (5) 6 2
Mill profit share and bonus 6 4 (6)
Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) (11) (15) (46)
Total $ (141) $ (134) $ 52
(1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of changes in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs)divided by shipment volumes.
(2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products.(3) The key inputs include fibre, resin, wax and energy.(4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, maintenance, and costs to ramp up the new Inverness,
Scotland line.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
9
Financials
(US $ millions, except per share information)
2019 Target 2018 2017
Cash provided by operating activities before cash taxes and OWC changes $ 686 $ 628
Cash taxes, net (117) (2)
Operating working capital changes 39 (18)
Cash provided by operating activities 608 608
Cash provided by operating activities per share 7.03 7.05
Operating working capital 88 127
Regular capital expenditures, including investment in intangible assets(1) 150 193 156
Investment in Inverness project 12 101
(1) 2017 capital expenditures include interest costs of $7 million capitalized on qualifying assets.
Balance Sheet
10
Financials
(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted) Bank Covenant
Dec 31,
2018
Sep 29,
2018
Dec 31,
2017
Long-term debt, principal value $ 555 $ 555 $ 555
Less: Cash and cash equivalents (128) (193) (241)
Net debt 427 362 314
Add: Letters of credit and guarantees 8 15 19
Net debt for financial covenant purposes 435 377 333
Tangible net worth Min. $500 1,132 1,278 1,248
Net debt to capitalization, book basis Max. 65% 28% 23% 21%
Liquidity of $490 million = $128 million in cash + $237 million in revolving bank lines+ $125 million undrawn A/R securitization
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
An
nu
al A
vera
ge N
C P
rice
US$
per
Msf
7/1
6"
Historical North American OSB Prices
12
Appendices
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths
15-year average
Q1 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226 293 370
Q2 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264 330 426
Q3 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301 409 363
Q4 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285 379 243
Average 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269 353 351
Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at January 31, 2019. It is not exhaustive.
Forecast North American OSB Prices
13
Appendices
Annual Average
North Central
Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”
Analyst 2019E 2020E
Scotiabank 306 325
RBC Capital Markets 300 330
Raymond James 300 -
Vertical Research Partners 300 330
Seaport Global 298 300
BMO Capital Markets 275 295
TD Securities 270 280
CIBC World Markets 255 250
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 244 251
Average 283 295
North American Capacity Restarts Needed to Meet Growing Demand
14
Industry Overview
Note: Excludes OSB siding production and capacity.
Source: APA, company documents and other public filings
Norbord’s Huguley, AL mill resumed
production in October 2017
37 Mills in Operation
5 Mills (Re)started in 2017/18
North American OSB Installed Capacity:
Norbord Mill
7 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13
1 Mill Idle
Financial Sensitivities
15
Appendices
Exposure Change
Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)
(US$ millions)
North American OSB (2) $10 per Msf-7/16” + $64
European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $11
Canadian dollar (3) $0.01 per C$ + $6
Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1
(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the curtailed Chambord, Quebec mill) which were restated at year-end. Impact on Adjusted EBITDA of a $10 per Msf-7/16” change is ± $52 million based on the last twelve months of production at December 31, 2018.Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at December 31, 2018 – Canada C$8 million and Belgium €32 million.
(2) Estimated impact of change in Norbord’s realized North American OSB price.
(3) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares and income tax payments).