36
Q3 2015 Interim Report Lennart Evrell President & CEO Mikael Staffas CFO

Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

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Page 1: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Q3 2015 Interim Report

Lennart Evrell

President & CEO

Mikael Staffas

CFO

Page 2: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

0

800

1 600

2 400

3 200

4 000

4 800

5 600

6 400

7 200

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

R4Q,MSEK

MSEK

Quarterly EBIT excl PIR* Rolling Q EBIT, RHS Rolling Q EBIT excl PIR*, RHS

Robust cash flow and strong quarter for Smelters

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015

* PIR=Process Inventory Revaluation

• Revenues 9,764 (9,287) MSEK

• EBIT ex PIR* 1,055 (711) MSEK

‒ EBIT 880 (858) MSEK

• Free Cash Flow 953 (728) MSEK

• Sharp fall in metal prices vs Q2

• Continued favorable currencies

• Strong result Smelters

• Production disturbances Aitik

• Strong cash flow

2

Page 3: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Prices down, mine cutbacks

Macro

• Soft global market

• Level of economic development in China

uncertain

Base metals markets

• Mine supply growth in copper

• Zinc mines closures

• Increase in official stocks

• Metal prices down

• Zn and Cu close to 90th percentile cash cost

• Mine production cutbacks announced

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 3

Page 4: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Zinc and copper price vs cash cost

2015-10-23 4 Boliden Group Q3 2015

Source: Wood Mackenzie Q3 2015, Reuters Datastream

Normal C1 – Zinc Normal C1 – Copper USD/ton USD/ton

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

Cu average price Cu max price Cu min price

50th perc 75th perc 90th perc

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Zn average price Zn max price Zn min price

50th perc 75th perc 90th perc

Page 5: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Boliden market term index

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 5

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Favourable currencies vs 1 year ago

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 6

Note: Graph shows period 1 January 2005 until 15 October 2015.

Page 7: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Zinc price

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015

Average price in Q3 vs period

Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14

-16% -11% -17% -20%

7

1 500

1 600

1 700

1 800

1 900

2 000

2 100

2 200

2 300

2 400

2 500

jul-14 okt-14 jan-15 apr-15 jul-15 okt-15

USD/t Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LME inventory Shanghai inventory Price Price Q avg

Zinc price, USD/t Tonnes

Page 8: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Copper price

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 8

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

jul-14 okt-14 jan-15 apr-15 jul-15 okt-15

USD/t

Average price in Q3 vs period

Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14

-13% -10% -21% -25%

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LME inventory COMEX inventory Shanghai inventory Price Price Q avg

Copper price, USD/t Tonnes

Page 9: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Gold, silver and lead prices

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015

Lead Gold

Silver

Average price in Q3 vs period

Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14

Gold -6% -8% -6% -12%

Silver -9% -11% -10% -25%

Lead -12% -5% -14% -21%

9

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gold price, USD/troy oz.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Silver price, USD/troy oz.

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Lead price, USD/t

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 10: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Mines

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 10

Page 11: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

0

600

1 200

1 800

2 400

3 000

3 600

4 200

4 800

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

R4Q, MSEK

MSEK

Quarterly EBIT Rolling Q EBIT

Mines – Lower market terms & production disturbances

• EBIT 260 (355) MSEK

‒ 657 MSEK in Q2 2015

• Capex 563 (603) MSEK

• Lower metal prices

• Production disturbances Aitik

• Continued strong performance in

Garpenberg

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 11

Page 12: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

0,0

0,3

0,6

0,9

1,2

1,5

1,8

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012 2013 2014 2015

Metal content, kt

Milled ore, mt

Zinc

Milled ore Metal content

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012 2013 2014 2015

Metal content, kt

Milled ore, mt Copper

Milled ore Metal content

• Garpenberg – lower grade, unfavorable

rock conditions

• Tara – low milled tonnage

• Boliden Area – increased slag production

Mines – Production

• Aitik – production disturbances, higher grade

• Kylylahti – lower grade

• Boliden Area – increased slag production

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 12

Page 13: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Smelters

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 13

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-400

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

2 400

2 800

3 200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

R4Q, MSEK

MSEK

Quarterly EBIT excl PIR* Rolling Q EBIT, RHS Rolling Q EBIT excl PIR*, RHS

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015

* PIR=Process Inventory Revaluation

14

• EBIT ex PIR* 825 (464) MSEK

‒ 604 MSEK in Q2 2015

• Capex 315 (116) MSEK

• Lower metal prices

• High production

• New nickel business model

• Maintenance shutdowns on plan

‒ -85 (-85) MSEK

Smelters – Strong result through high production

Page 15: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

0

30

60

90

120

150

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012 2013 2014 2015

Metal production,

kt

Total feed, kt

Zinc

Feed, total Metal production

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012 2013 2014 2015

Metalproduction,

kt

Total feed, kt

Copper

Feed, total Metal production

Smelters – Production

• Rönnskär – improved process stability,

maintenance shutdown

• Harjavalta – stable process

• Odda – high and stable production,

maintenance shutdown

• Kokkola – improved process stability,

lower silver grade

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 15

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Financials

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 16

Page 17: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Robust cash flow and strong quarter for Smelters

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 17

MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015

Revenues 9,764 9,287 10,373

EBITDA 1,746 1,709 1,970

EBIT 880 858 1,090

Process inventory revaluation (PIR) -175 146 -167

EBIT ex PIR 1,055 711 1,257

Investments 880 720 877

Free cash flow 953 728 1,557

Earnings per share, SEK 2.36 2.24 2.96

Net debt / equity ratio 24 35 28

Financial development

Page 18: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Lower metal prices and lower costs vs Q2 2015

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 18

Seasonally lower costs

Less maintenance Smelters

Lower metal prices

Lower smelter terms

MSEK

EBIT excl. PIR – Q2 2015 1,257

Specification of deviation

Volume 114

Prices and Terms (incl. hedges) -624

Whereof currency effects 54

Costs 312

Depreciation 16

Other -20

Deviation -202

EBIT excl. PIR – Q3 2015 1,055

Higher Smelter feed

EBIT excl. PIR analysis Q3 2015 vs. Q2 2015

Page 19: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Higher production vs. Q3 2014

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 19

Kylylahti

Higher production Smelters

Lower metal prices

Stronger USD

Improved smelter terms

MSEK

EBIT excl. PIR – Q3 2014 711

Specification of deviation

Volume 549

Prices and Terms (incl. hedges) -25

Whereof currency effects 760

Costs -167

Depreciation -12

Other -1

Deviation 344

EBIT excl. PIR – Q3 2015 1,055

Higher production Mines

Higher feed Smelters

EBIT excl. PIR analysis Q3 2015 vs. Q3 2014

Page 20: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Strong cash flow

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 20

MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015

EBITDA excluding PIR 1,921 1,563 2,138

Changes in working capital 36 19 396

Inventories -500 -22 678

Payables 443 -138 -165

Receivables 92 178 -119

Other 1 0 3

Cash flow from investments -879 -718 -875

Financial items -51 -72 -62

Tax paid -69 -55 -81

Other -5 -9 41

Free cash flow 953 728 1,557

Free cash flow

Page 21: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

%MSEK

Net debt Gearing

Stronger balance sheet

2015-10-23 21 Boliden Group Q3 2015

SEK bn (Unless otherwise stated)

30 Sept

2015

30 Jun

2015

Total Assets 44.0 43.4

Capital employed 35.1 35.2

Shareholders' equity 25.6 25.0

Net debt 6.2 7.0

Gearing, % 24 28

Loan duration, years 2.7 2.9

Average interest rate, % 1.4 1.6

Interest duration, years 0.5 0.6

Net payment capacity 6.8 5.7

Page 22: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Nine months performance

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015

* PIR=Process Inventory Revaluation

• Revenues 30,543 (27,276) MSEK

• EBIT ex PIR* 3,414 (1,471) MSEK

‒ EBIT 3,175 (1,601) MSEK

• Free Cash Flow 2,530 (1,217) MSEK

• Lower metal prices, improved

currencies

• Smelters performance

• Garpenberg investment

• Kylylahti acquisition

22

0

800

1 600

2 400

3 200

4 000

4 800

5 600

6 400

7 200

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

R4Q,MSEK

MSEK

Quarterly EBIT excl PIR* Rolling Q EBIT, RHS Rolling Q EBIT excl PIR*, RHS

Page 23: Q3 2015 Interim Report - Bolideninvestors.boliden.com/sites/default/files/event/q3_2015... · 2015-10-23 · Boliden Group Q3 2015 17 2015-10-23 MSEK Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Revenues

Robust cash flow & strong quarter for Smelters

• Well positioned in the metal market

‒ Mines and smelters

‒ Base metals and precious metals

‒ High productivity

• Sharp fall in metal prices vs Q2

• Continued favorable currencies

• Strong result Smelters

• Production disturbances Aitik

• Strong cash flow

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 23

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Going forward

• Aitik

‒ Copper grade 0.21% in 2015-2016

• Garpenberg – 2.5 Mton pace end 2015

• Tara – improved production latter part of 2015

• Rönnskär – action plan under implementation

• Nickel business on own books H2 2015

• Odda expansion to 200 kton/year on plan

• Capex 3.5 BSEK FY 2015

• Planned maintenance EBIT impact

‒ Q4 -25 MSEK

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 24

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Capital Markets Day on 16-17 March 2016

• Stockholm 16 March

• Odda site visit 17 March

• More info will be posted on www.boliden.com

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 25

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Disclaimer

• This presentation has been prepared by Boliden for information purposes only and as per the indicated date. Boliden does not undertake any obligation to correct or update the information or any statements made therein. Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

• Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to accuracy or completeness. Boliden has not made any independent verification of the information obtained from third parties.

• Nothing in this material shall be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction.

• Boliden does not accept any liability whatsoever arising from or in connection with the use of this information.

• Save as by prior approval in writing, this material may not be copied, transmitted or disclosed, whether in print, electronic or any other format. All rights to the material are reserved.

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 26

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Appendix

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 28

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Market balance

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015

Source: CRU Sept/Oct 2015, Boliden calculations

29

Zinc – global market Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315

Metals demand, kt 3327 3344 3392 3327 3306 3307 3363 3340

Year on year change 4,7% 4,3% 3,1% 1,7% -0,6% -1,1% -0,9% 0,4%

Smelter production, kt 3333 3124 3250 3343 3531 3373 3514 3445

Year on year change 3,2% -0,2% 1,7% 4,2% 5,9% 8,0% 8,1% 3,1%

Mine production, kt 3047 2719 3158 3193 3236 2803 3246 3150

Year on year change -1,6% -2,1% -2,9% 1,7% 6,2% 3,1% 2,8% -1,3%

Metal balance, kt 6 -220 -142 16 225 66 151 105

Concentrate balance, kt -41 -158 173 60 -111 -363 -47 -52

Copper – global market Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315

Metals demand, kt 5381 5039 5460 5465 5536 5026 5503 5564

Year on year change 9,4% 2,3% 5,1% 3,9% 2,9% -0,3% 0,8% 1,8%

Smelter production, kt 5281 5149 5324 5528 5626 5412 5534 5475

Year on year change 3,9% 1,5% 6,0% 7,1% 6,5% 5,1% 3,9% -0,9%

Mine production, kt 3838 3541 3603 3663 3708 3648 3884 3635

Year on year change 10,5% 6,4% 4,9% -0,8% -3,4% 3,0% 7,8% -0,8%

Metal balance, kt -100 110 -136 62 90 386 31 -89

Concentrate balance, kt 229 10 34 -50 -107 -86 129 -212

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Economic development

2015-10-23

Industrial production, year on year %

Boliden Group Q3 2015

Source: Reuters Datastream, Boliden calculations for world data

30

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU28 USA China World

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-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU USA China

Construction – largest segment for Cu and Zn

2015-10-23

Activity, year on year %

Source: Reuters Datastream

Boliden Group Q3 2015

China: year on year based on cumulative investments at each point

31

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-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Europe North America China World

2015-10-23

Source: LMC Automotive

Boliden Group Q3 2015

Automotive

32

Production of light vehicles, year on year, quarterly data

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China – metals demand and economic growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year on year growth %

Zinc demand Copper demand GDP Industrial production

Source: CRU Ltd, Reuters Datastream

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015 33

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Zinc TC and premia

• Lower realized contract TC, metal price down

• Somewhat lower spot TCs

• Concentrate stocks coming down*

• Somewhat lower spot premia in Europe

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015

Source: CRU Sept/Oct 2015

*CRU Oct 2015

34

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015

US$/t concentrate

Treatment charges

Realized TC, European contract

Spot TC, China imports

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015

US$/t metal Metal premia

Delivered Premia US Midwest

Ex-Works Premia Europe

Premia Far East - Western

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Copper TC and premia

• Spot TC still below annual contract level • Lower European spot premia

2015-10-23 Boliden Group Q3 2015

Source: CRU Sept/Oct 2015

35

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2013 2014 2015

US$/t concentrate

Treatment charges

Contract TC - annual and mid-year benchmark

Standard grade spot TC

Contract benchmark according to market sources including CRU

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015

US$/t metal Metal premia

CIF Average European premia CIF European benchmark premia

Contract benchmark according to market sources including CRU

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