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Q2 Earnings
PresentationJuly 2019
22
General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains
historical information, descriptions of current circumstances and
statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial
results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its
entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the
information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s)
management’s discussion and analysis for the annual and interim periods
ended December 31, 2018 and June 30, 2019 respectively, (MD&A), and
the company’s annual audited and interim financial statements available
on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of
the information contained in this presentation to the exclusion of others.
Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward-
looking statements” (including those under the headings Supply
Conditions and Summary) within the meaning of applicable securities
laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable
guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of
assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some
cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of
forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or
“does not expect”, “an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”,
“strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases
or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”,
“might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any
statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other
characterizations of future events or circumstances contain forward-
looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information
are not historical facts but instead represent management’s
expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or
circumstances. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve
numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general
and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions,
forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Actual
outcomes and results of these statements will depend on a number of
factors including those matters described under “Risks and
Uncertainties”, in our MD&A and may differ materially from those
anticipated or projected. Reference should be made to the other factors
discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities.
.
Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward-
looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly
update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or
oral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required
by applicable securities laws.
Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain
non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and net debt
to capital ratio. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized
meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be
comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further
information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the
“Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A External Information:
Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any
external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted or
endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the
information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by
third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf by
WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as
to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy,
completeness or correctness of this information or any other information
or opinions contained herein.
Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars,
unless otherwise indicated.
Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm”
mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means
southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this
presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our
most recent Annual Report.
33
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
$270
$280
$290
$300
$310
$320
$330
$340
$350
Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119
Expenditures % change
Demand conditions U.S.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
J F M A M J J A S O N D
U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)
2017 2018 2019
Seasonally adjusted:
2017: 1,203
2018: 1,250
2019: 1,238 ytd June
Repair and renovation growth
continues
Leading indicator of Remodeling ActivityMonthly
$B
4 Q
trM
ovin
g I
mpro
vem
ents
and R
epairs
4 Q
trM
ovin
g r
ate
of
Change
Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies
Limited growth needed for increased demand of 1 – 2 billion board feet
U.S. Housing Forecast (000) 2019 2020
RBC 1,313 1,335
Wells Fargo 1,270 1,290
Mortgage Bankers 1,268 1,3285
RISI 1,265 1,290
NAHB 1,250 1,286
FEA 1,248 1,339
APA 1,230 1,220
Fannie May 1,229 1,257
Average (May 2019 Fcst) 1,259 1,292
50k annual increase in
housing starts
3% growth in repair and renovation
~600Mfbm
increase in
lumber demand
~1,000Mfbm
increase in
lumber demand
44
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2018Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2
North America Curtailments
Supply conditions
0
5
10
15
20
25
BC Canada US Total NA
Lumber Supply
Ytd 04-18 Ytd 04-19
Down 16%
Down 9%
Up 1%
Down 4%
Source: Western Wood Products Association, management estimates Source: Industry analysts, public filings, management estimates, FEA
Supply growth challenges
• Temporary curtailments become permanent in the BC Interior
• Over 1.9 billion feet of North America permanent curtailment already announced
• Curtailments likely to have larger impact on supply in Q3/Q4
• Contractor availability and lead times inhibiting projects in the US South
• Long start up curves on new projects in US South
• Residual markets impacting (new and existing) facilities
Billion fbm MMfbm
Mix of
temporary
and
permanent
Curtailments likely to affect supply in second half
55
* Adjusted EBITDA is defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity based compensation, restructuring and impairment charges and export duties.
Consolidated Financial Results
$ Millions
Adjusted EBITDA Q2-19 Q1-19
Lumber $ 39 $ 84
Panels 10 15
Pulp & Paper 7 11
Corporate/Other - -
Total $ 56 $ 110
EBITDA margin 4.2% 8.9%
Q2-19 Q1-19
Sales $ 1,317 $ 1,241
Cost and Expenses 1,375 1,231
Restructure/Impairment 26 -
Operating earnings (84) 10
Finance Expense (13) (11)
Other (6) (5)
Earnings before Tax $ (103) $ (6)
Tax recovery 45 1
Net earnings $ (58) $ (5)
Diluted EPS $ (0.92) $ (0.12)
Challenging conditions continue
66Q2 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
77Q2 Lumber Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
88Q2-19 versus Q1-19
$ millions unless
otherwise indicatedQ2
2019
Q1
2019Change
Lumber Production (MMfbm) 1,536 1,462 74
5%Production up slightly despite similar curtailments in both
quarters due to stronger operating performance
Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,686 1,444 242
17%SPF and SYP shipments higher as inventory reduced during
curtailment periods
Pulp Shipments (Mtonnes) 305 318 (13)
4%NBSK shipments slightly lower coming out of maintenance
shut downs
Adjusted EBITDA $56 $110 $(54)
(49%)Adjusted EBITDA off in all segments due to lower commodity
pricing, fibre costs inflation and curtailment impacts
Cash flow from operations $187 $(228) $(41) Seasonal log inventory reduction in western Canada,
drawdown in lumber inventories
Capital Expenditure $82 $108 $(26) Continuing to execute on capital plans and US
South modernization program
Net Debt
Net Debt to Capital
$930
26%
$1,001
27%
$(71)Net debt down slightly from prior quarter, significant financial
flexibility and wide margin of safety
Cumulative duties on deposit
US$
$312 $276 $36 Significant duties on deposit
Share buybacks $31 $50 $(19) Continued to return capital
Despite difficult 2019 so far, maintaining focus on priorities
99
-$100$0
$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900
2017 2018 Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-19 Q2-19
Available liquidity
Bank lines Cash Increase in revolving credit facility
Liquidity
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Term loan Notes Revolver Other
Scheduled maturities
Ample financial flexibility
Cash consists of cash and short-term investments less cheques issued in excess of funds on deposit.
1010Summary
✕ Major maintenance shut downs
at both NBSK mills
✕ Cold and wet weather interrupts
operations, potentially affecting
housing activity
✕ Multiple production curtailments
disrupt operating rhythm
✕ Multiple major capex projects
underway in US South
✓ Resume normal operating
schedules in pulp and lumber
operations
✓ Moderating weather conditions
✓ Potential for supply and demand
of lumber to rebalance
✓ Balance of year capital anticipated
to be less disruptive
First Half Headwinds Second Half Opportunities