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1 4435 Main Street, Suite 1100 Kansas City, MO 64111
dfadasfMarket Overview – Q2 2012It’s Seemingly Calm but a Storm is Brewing
The second quarter of 2012 saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average decline by 2.5% based on Europe’s ongoing financial concerns and the realization that the overall global economy is starting to sputter. Government policy is certainly playing a larger‐than‐usual role in directing our financial markets while investors are nervously eyeing the November U.S. presidential election, year‐end expiration of tax cuts, and economic stimulus (QE III) for further direction and hope on where the markets might go. In the United States, many investors believe the Federal Reserve is reaching the limit on its ability to prop up the economy and continue to see mixed unemployment numbers that cast doubt on our ability to recover more robustly. Despite the unsettled and volatile environment, the Dow posted a respectable 5.4% gain at the halfway point, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is still up 8.3% after a 3.3% retreat in the second quarter. The last trading day in June certainly helped stocks trim their quarterly losses as the Dow surged 2.2% after the latest European summit delivered more steps toward fiscal integration than investors had expected. Still, many problematic issues remain unsettled despite last week’s relief, especially for Spain’s troubled banks. Meanwhile, investors continue to be concerned by a slowdown in the Chinese economy, a major contributor to global economic activity and profits. The world’s largest developed countries (China’s prime export partners) continue to struggle under the weight of their own debt and the lagging effects of the financial crisis thereby presenting a large headwind for China’s future economic growth.
The second quarter also affected economically sensitive commodity prices. Oil collapsed 18%, while copper slid almost 9%. Investors flocked to the perceived safety of government bonds, sending the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10‐year note down 0.6 percentage point to 1.66%. Volatility also returned to the market with the Dow posting 22 days of triple‐digit moves during the second quarter, compared to six triple‐digit moves in the first quarter.
Quarterly Newsletter
July 2012
Frontier proudly welcomes Mischia
Brown and Ross Ringer to the Frontier
team!
Mischia Brown has joined our Insurance
division as a Relationship Manager.
Mischia will enhance the client
experience by collaborating with other
agents and brokers to ensure both short
and long term financial goals are being
met. Mischia was born and raised in
Hutchinson, attended Buhler High School,
and earned a Bachelor of Science in
Finance from KU. Her hobbies include
volunteering at Wayside Waifs, and also
working with the Big Brothers Big Sisters
organization.
Ross Ringer was born and raised in
Kansas City. He attended Shawnee
Mission East High School and went on to
study Political Science at KU. Ross will be
working with the Geowealth team out of
the Kansas City office. Ross’s hobbies
include biking, swimming, and golf.
We would also like to welcome Devin
Gfeller who is interning with Matthew
Taylor for the summer. Devin is earning
his degree in Finance at Kansas State.
2 4435 Main Street, Suite 1100 Kansas City, MO 64111
Ten‐year Treasury notes saw a return in excess of 5%, including price appreciation and interest payments, which shocked many experts who had advised investors to avoid Treasuries. Unfortunately, U.S. stocks and bonds have not moved higher due to fresh excitement over our nation's economy. Instead, global economies look weaker by comparison so they are flocking to the US for additional safety.
Europe Watch The European Union leaders took a significant step toward closer integration of the euro zone, deciding that a single supervisor should oversee banks in the 17 nations which use that currency. Details of the role, likely to be developed by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, will be mapped out by year end. The leaders also agreed on some short‐term relief designed to help Spain and Italy’s rising borrowing costs that threatened the survival of the single currency. Germany agreed to the following concessions which were much more significant than those in previous summits:
What Lies Ahead
Since the beginning of June, dozens of companies across a wide range of industries have preannounced earnings, providing downward guidance before official results are released in the next few weeks. Just over a week ago, Procter & Gamble, the world's largest consumer‐products company, lowered earnings guidance for Q2 and their 2013 fiscal year. According to Goldman Sachs, companies have provided new earnings guidance between 2% and 20% below where analysts had predicted second quarter earnings. Approximately 10%‐15% of sales for S&P 500 companies can be attributed to Europe so it is likely the slow global environment will continue to weigh on US company earnings in future quarters as well. The macroeconomic perspective doesn’t look great either. The US appears to be out of ammo in the short term though they recently announced the extension of “Operation Twist” which has had virtually no impact on interest rates or equity prices. The market’s lack of response to the effort was an important indicator that monetary easing is no longer a useful tool for increasing economic activity.
Market Uncertainty Continues to Validate Frontier’s Investment Philosophy
As we have been saying for months, the unpredictable nature of government and central bank intervention around the world, and the underlying political turmoil driving those decisions, has translated into unprecedented uncertainty in the markets:
We have said repeatedly that we are not big believers in market timing during any market conditions, but the unpredictable nature of today’s market has arguably made short term market speculation a more risky gamble than ever before. Policy changes are often poorly timed and not well thought out. Worse, they are usually driven by short term political considerations, making them virtually impossible to forecast in advance. As the next graphs show, the impact of policy interventions on daily market swings (as opposed to market fundamentals) is more significant than at any time in recent memory:
The above underscores how easily investors can be fooled when they fall into the trap of trading for the short term and not sufficiently diversifying their portfolios. The good news is that Frontier does not engage in this sort of risky short term speculation that would unnecessarily place our client’s money at risk. We will continue to reiterate our belief that that the only path to withstanding various deterministic events, caused by unexpected or unwarranted policy changes and self‐serving government intrusion, is to maintain a well‐diversified portfolio across a wide spectrum of asset classes according to one’s investment objective, time horizon and risk tolerance level. This is crucial in making the growth of assets immune to waves of macroeconomic unpredictability and rapid shifts of economic cycles, and it vastly increases the probability of achieving your financial goals in a timely fashion. While that might sound straightforward, we are constantly amazed how few investors, sophisticated or otherwise, have the processes and discipline in place to adhere to this strategy. Times like these have only confirmed the wisdom of this approach.
3 4435 Main Street, Suite 1100 Kansas City, MO 64111
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FrontierwasproudtosponsortheVictoryintheValley“EastmeetsWest”
Race.RobRichardson,fromWichita,ranintherace.
VictoryintheValleysupports,assists,and
encouragescancerpatientsandfamiliesbyofferingsupportandservicesatnochargetothosetheyserve.
FrontierheldaclientappreciationdinnerattheDoubleGateCountryClubinAlbany,Georgia.Thenightwasfilledwith
dinneranddrinksandapresentationonthe
Frontiervision.ItwasagreatopportunitytomeetourclientsinGeorgiaandintroducethemtothe
Frontierway.
NickandShawnplayedintheWCCRoundUpattheWichitaCountry
Club.
Theywontheirflight!
Congratulations!
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The Kansas City Jayhawk Open
Frontierwasproudtosupportthe2012KansasCityJayhawkopenheldonJune15thatthePrairieHighlandsgolfcourseinOlathe.
SeveralmembersoftheFrontierteamplayedintheevent.TheKUAlumniAssociationexiststostrengthentheUniversityofKansasby
informing,engaging,andmobilizingtheKUcommunity.