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PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA K9LA Disturbances to Disturbances to Propagation Propagation Carl Luetzelschwab Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA K9LA [email protected] [email protected] http://mysite.verizon.net/k9la http://mysite.verizon.net/k9la CQ DX, CQ DX Ok, where’d everybody go?

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA Disturbances to Propagation Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA [email protected] CQ DX, CQ DXOk, where’d everybody

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PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Disturbances to Disturbances to PropagationPropagation

Carl Luetzelschwab Carl Luetzelschwab K9LAK9LA

[email protected]@arrl.nethttp://mysite.verizon.net/k9lahttp://mysite.verizon.net/k9la

CQ DX, CQ DX Ok, where’d everybody go?

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

AgendaAgenda

• Quick look at recent Cycle 24 activityQuick look at recent Cycle 24 activity

• Review WWV format & SWPC home pageReview WWV format & SWPC home page

• Disturbances - the big pictureDisturbances - the big picture

• Disturbances - their impact to real-world Disturbances - their impact to real-world operatingoperating

• Review of auroral oval imagesReview of auroral oval images

This presentation will be on the PVRC websitevisit http://www.pvrc.org/index.htmlclick on the ‘PVRC Webinars’ link at the top

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Quick Look at Recent Cycle 24 Quick Look at Recent Cycle 24 ActivityActivity

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Cycle 24 - Region 1029Cycle 24 - Region 1029

• Sunspot Region 1029 rotated Sunspot Region 1029 rotated into view on October 23into view on October 23

• It became the biggest active It became the biggest active region of the year region of the year

• It produced ten C-class solar It produced ten C-class solar flares from October 25-28.flares from October 25-28.– That more than tripled the That more than tripled the

number of C-class flares number of C-class flares (three) previously detected in (three) previously detected in all of 2009.all of 2009.

• It helped 15m for CQ WW SSBIt helped 15m for CQ WW SSB– K9LA Multi-Two worked 91 K9LA Multi-Two worked 91

countries on 15mcountries on 15m• It rotated out of view on It rotated out of view on

October 31October 31

Region 1029 viewed on 27 October 2009

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Millstone Hill IonosondeMillstone Hill Ionosonde

Early October was ‘iffy’ for 15m for those of us in the Midwest

Region 1029 rotated into view

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Things May Be Picking UpThings May Be Picking Up

Mon

thly

Mean

Oct09

Smoothed sunspot number

Nov08 1.75

Dec08 1.7 (NOAA prediction)

Jan09 1.8

Feb09 1.9

Mar09 2.0

Apr09 2.2

Mar09 ???

Mar09 smoothed sunspot number will be available when the Nov09 monthly mean data is collected

Nov09 is 4.4 so far

5

10

0

• Monthly mean – average of the daily Monthly mean – average of the daily sunspot number over a month’s periodsunspot number over a month’s period

• Smoothed sunspot number – average of Smoothed sunspot number – average of monthly means using data from six months monthly means using data from six months behind to 6 months ahead of desired monthbehind to 6 months ahead of desired month

Sep09

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Even More ActivityEven More Activity• Region 1029 persisted and came around againRegion 1029 persisted and came around again

– Rotated into view on November 14Rotated into view on November 14– But it fizzled out But it fizzled out

• Region 1030 produced some activityRegion 1030 produced some activity• Region 1031 also produced some activityRegion 1031 also produced some activity• Two more regions numbered on November 18: 1032 and Two more regions numbered on November 18: 1032 and

10331033– More sunspots! More sunspots!

• Hopefully this activity will continue so that the November Hopefully this activity will continue so that the November 2009 monthly mean sunspot number will be higher than the 2009 monthly mean sunspot number will be higher than the October 2009 monthly mean sunspot numberOctober 2009 monthly mean sunspot number– Which will result in the March 2009 smoothed sunspot number Which will result in the March 2009 smoothed sunspot number

being higher than the April 2009 smoothed sunspot numberbeing higher than the April 2009 smoothed sunspot number

Result of increased solar activity is more disturbances to propagationAnd that’s the topic of tonight’s discussion

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Review WWV Format & SWPC Home Review WWV Format & SWPC Home PagePage

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

““New” WWV FormatNew” WWV Format

• Changed on March 12, 2002Changed on March 12, 2002• Three sectionsThree sections

– Current indicesCurrent indices– Summary of past 24 hoursSummary of past 24 hours– Forecast for next 24 hoursForecast for next 24 hours

• More specific in terms of More specific in terms of disturbances to propagationdisturbances to propagation

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Solar terrestrial indices for 23 May followSolar flux 180 and mid-latitude A-index 43The mid-latitude K-index at 1500 UTC on May 24 was 1

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strongGeomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level occurredSolar radiation storms reaching the S2 level occurredRadio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred

Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minorSolar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expectedRadio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected

Sample ReportSample Report

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

SWPC Home PageSWPC Home Page

http://www.swpc.noaa.govhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

G, S, and RG, S, and R• GG refers to refers to GGeomagnetic Stormseomagnetic Storms

– Caused by gusts in solar wind from CMEs (coronal mass Caused by gusts in solar wind from CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and high speed streams from coronal holesejections) and high speed streams from coronal holes

– Can cause auroral absorption, auroral-E, depleted F region Can cause auroral absorption, auroral-E, depleted F region ionizationionization

• SS refers to refers to SSolar Radiation Stormsolar Radiation Storms– Caused by energetic protons from big solar flaresCaused by energetic protons from big solar flares– Can increase D region absorption in the polar cap (PCA)Can increase D region absorption in the polar cap (PCA)

• R refers to refers to RRadio Blackoutsadio Blackouts– Caused by electromagnetic radiation from big solar flaresCaused by electromagnetic radiation from big solar flares

• X-ray flares (.1-1 nmX-ray flares (.1-1 nm wavelengths) of X or M class wavelengths) of X or M class– Can increase D region absorption on daylight side of EarthCan increase D region absorption on daylight side of Earth

• For all three, scale is 1 to 5For all three, scale is 1 to 5– 1 is minor and 5 is extreme, and correspond to specific 1 is minor and 5 is extreme, and correspond to specific

criteriacriteria– Details at Details at

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/info/WWVdoc.htmlhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/info/WWVdoc.html

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Disturbances – the Big Disturbances – the Big PicturePicture

X-ray radiation from solar flare – absorption on the daylight side of the Earth Protons from solar

flare – absorption in the polar cap

Geomagnetic storms – depressed F region MUFs at high and mid latitudes both day and night

Geomagnetic storms – auroral absorption, auroral ionization

X marks the spot – the North magnetic poleX

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Disturbances – Their Impact to Disturbances – Their Impact to Real-World OperatingReal-World Operating

Track a Geomagnetic Storm and Look at W4ZV Track a Geomagnetic Storm and Look at W4ZV Contest LogContest Log

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

CME at CoronagraphCME at Coronagraph

halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002

from LASCO on SOHO

Coronagraph is a telescope with an occulting disk to block out the Sun

LASCO = Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph

SOHO = Solar and Heliospheric Observatory is about 2.4 million miles from Earth on the line to the Sun

A ‘halo’ event means the CME explosion is seen all around the occulting disk, which indicates it is headed toward Earth

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

CME at ACECME at ACE

halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002 dials at 1002 UTC on May 23, 2002

from ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer)

The ACE satellite is sitting ~ 1,000,000 miles from Earth on the line to the Sun

Shock wave took about 30 hours to get to the ACE satellite – 92,000,000 miles in 30 hours is 532 km/sec

Southward IMF (what the first dial measures) usually means trouble

Normal speed is ~ 400 km/sec

Dynamic pressure is particle density times the square of the speed

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

0

3

6

9

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Meanook (Canada) K indices

0-3 May 22 0-3 May 23 0-3 May 24

elevated K indices

CME at Earth – K IndicesCME at Earth – K Indices

halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002 dials at 1002 UTC on May 23, 2002

Usually takes 30 minutes to 1 hour for shock wave to get from ACE to Earth

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Dyess AFB (Texas)

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 12 24 36

MU

F(3

00

0)F

2, M

Hz

0

3

6

9

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Meanook (Canada) K indices

0-3 May 22 0-3 May 23 0-3 May 24

MUF(3000)F2 at mid-latitude

elevated K indices

CME at Earth - IonosphereCME at Earth - Ionosphere

halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002

00 May 22 00 May 23 00 May 24

result of elevated K indices

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

W4ZV WPX CW 2002W4ZV WPX CW 2002

details of this event are in the March 2003 issue of CQ

W4ZV set single-op 10m record in 2001 - planned to make a run at it in 2002

Halo CME at 0342 UTC on May 22, 2002 – 10m propagation to EU was poor

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

““Real-Time” View of F Region Real-Time” View of F Region DepletionDepletion

• CME on Monday Sep 30, 2002 - storm hit Earth on Tuesday Oct 1CME on Monday Sep 30, 2002 - storm hit Earth on Tuesday Oct 1• Higher bands took big dip due to FHigher bands took big dip due to F22 region depletion region depletion• SSNe available at www.nwra-az.com/spawx/ssne24.htmlSSNe available at www.nwra-az.com/spawx/ssne24.html

– Also see July/August 2003 NCJ for more on SSNeAlso see July/August 2003 NCJ for more on SSNe• SSNe uses FSSNe uses F22 model of the ionosphere model of the ionosphere

– Varies sunspot number to make model agree with real-time ionosonde Varies sunspot number to make model agree with real-time ionosonde datadata

result of CME

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Disturbances – Their Impact to Disturbances – Their Impact to Real-World OperatingReal-World Operating

Track a Solar Radiation Storm (no log data)Track a Solar Radiation Storm (no log data)

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Proton flux

Solar Radiation Storm at Solar Radiation Storm at GOESGOES

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

riometer absorptionProton flux

Solar Radiation Storm at Solar Radiation Storm at EarthEarth

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

( relative ionospheric opacity meter )

Energetic protons are fast, so the ionosphere could be affected in an hour or two

Riometer Absorption at Iqaluit (Frobisher Bay)zenith, 38.2MHz

0

1

2

3

4

0 48 96 144

abso

rpti

on

, d

B

00 May 22 00 May 23 00 May 24

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

riometer absorption

MUF(3000)F2 at high latitude – so much D region absorption that ionosonde can’t “see” the F2 region

Proton flux

Riometer Absorption at Iqaluit (Frobisher Bay)zenith, 38.2MHz

0

1

2

3

4

0 48 96 144

abso

rpti

on

, d

B

00 May 22 00 May 23 00 May 24

College (Alaska)

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 12 24 36

MU

F(3

000)F

2, M

Hz

00 May 22 00 May 23 00 May 24

increased absorption

Solar Radiation Storm at Solar Radiation Storm at EarthEarth

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

Polar Cap Absorption (PCA)

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Disturbances – Their Impact to Disturbances – Their Impact to Real-World OperatingReal-World Operating

Look at Impact of Radio Blackout on ZF2RR Contest Look at Impact of Radio Blackout on ZF2RR Contest Log (can’t track Radio Blackout because we have Log (can’t track Radio Blackout because we have no warning – electromagnetic radiation from solar no warning – electromagnetic radiation from solar flare arrives at same time as visual indication of flare arrives at same time as visual indication of

solar flare) solar flare)

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Radio Blackout on 10mRadio Blackout on 10m

Dan N9XX/ZF2RR single band 10m low power – if it wasn’t for the solar flares, he probably would have broken the North America Low Power record

X1.9 flare at 1836 UTC

X4.0 flare at 1638 UTC

looking for mults

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

SummarySummary

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

G, S, RG, S, R

• G = Geomagnetic StormG = Geomagnetic Storm– Caused by CMEs and coronal holesCaused by CMEs and coronal holes

• CMEs most prevalent around solar maximumCMEs most prevalent around solar maximum• Coronal holes most prevalent on declineCoronal holes most prevalent on decline

• S = Solar Radiation Storm (PCAs)S = Solar Radiation Storm (PCAs)– Caused by energetic protons from big solar Caused by energetic protons from big solar

flaresflares– Most prevalent around solar maximumMost prevalent around solar maximum

• R = Radio BlackoutR = Radio Blackout– Caused by electromagnetic radiation at X-ray Caused by electromagnetic radiation at X-ray

wavelengths from big solar flareswavelengths from big solar flares– Most prevalent around solar maximumMost prevalent around solar maximum

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

ImpactImpact

• In order of “least” impact to “most” impactIn order of “least” impact to “most” impact– Radio blackout (R)Radio blackout (R)

• No warning, but usually short duration – an hour or twoNo warning, but usually short duration – an hour or two– Lower frequencies impacted longerLower frequencies impacted longer

• Only affects daylight side of EarthOnly affects daylight side of Earth– Solar radiation Storm (S)Solar radiation Storm (S)

• A couple hours warning, can last a day or twoA couple hours warning, can last a day or two• Only affects propagation across the polar capOnly affects propagation across the polar cap

– Geomagnetic Storm (G)Geomagnetic Storm (G)• A day or two warning, can last for daysA day or two warning, can last for days• Affects high and mid latitude ionosphere both day and Affects high and mid latitude ionosphere both day and

nightnight

• In general we want G, S, R rating to be 1 or In general we want G, S, R rating to be 1 or lessless

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

CaveatCaveat

• Are Are allall geomagnetic storms bad? geomagnetic storms bad?

-- NO ---- NO --

• VHFer’s love them!VHFer’s love them!

• And gradually evolving storms, And gradually evolving storms, driven by slowly increasing driven by slowly increasing southward IMF, can increase southward IMF, can increase nighttime low latitude F region nighttime low latitude F region ionizationionization

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Review of Auroral Oval ImagesReview of Auroral Oval Images

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmaphttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap

• Each pass estimates total power into polar area - pull 1 of 10 canned picturesEach pass estimates total power into polar area - pull 1 of 10 canned pictures• Black dots and solid black lines indicate electron energy and flux, respectivelyBlack dots and solid black lines indicate electron energy and flux, respectively• Detector measures particles up to ~20 KeV (down to 100km & cause visible aurora)Detector measures particles up to ~20 KeV (down to 100km & cause visible aurora)• Higher energy electrons that get down to D region are not measuredHigher energy electrons that get down to D region are not measured• These pictures These pictures do not directly tell us anything about absorption or auroral-Edo not directly tell us anything about absorption or auroral-E

The colors indicate where The colors indicate where visual aurora visual aurora may occurmay occur, with orange indicating high , with orange indicating high probabilityprobability

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Where Are the Problems?Where Are the Problems?

• Bright discrete auroral forms - lots of E region ionizationBright discrete auroral forms - lots of E region ionization• Absorption usually equatorward of these discrete formsAbsorption usually equatorward of these discrete forms• For more details, visit mysite.verizon.net/k9la, click on the General For more details, visit mysite.verizon.net/k9la, click on the General

link, and read A Look Inside the Auroral Zonelink, and read A Look Inside the Auroral Zone

same night, same time (evening in the Midwest)

DMSP photo (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program)Kp=4

Auroral zone is not necessarily full of ionization that Auroral zone is not necessarily full of ionization that degrades HFdegrades HF

PVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LAPVRC Webinar - 19Nov09 - K9LA

Q & AQ & A

This PowerPoint presentation (without audio) is at This PowerPoint presentation (without audio) is at http://mysite.verizon.net/k9lahttp://mysite.verizon.net/k9la

And stay tuned for another K9LA PVRC presentation in mid December: 160m Propagation