PVAAS – The Thanksgiving Edition

• Did your Thanksgiving Dinner Meet the minimum expectations this year?

• Whether it met the expectations or not was it better than the year before?

Essential Question

How can PVAAS be used by teachers and administrators for annual school, grade, subject, and student evaluation and planning?

PVAAS has Two Methodologies

• 1. Value-added Analysis for growth in cohorts of students by school, grade, subgroup.

• 2. Projection capability to calculate the likelihood of a student achieving a specified target performance level on a future PSSA test.

The PVAAS Methodologies

Looking Back/ Looking Forward/ Evaluation Projection

Did cohorts grow? Who will be Prof/Adv?

Current Data Collection Approaches

• High Achievement

• Average Achievement

• Low Achievement

(Achievement is based on each student’s ending point)

PVAAS Adds Another ValueTo Achievement…Progress

Below At or Above

Growth Standard Growth Standard

(Progress is based on each student’s starting point)

Plot Quadrants and Their Meanings

Achievement Above Achievement Above

AYP AYP

Did Not Meet Growth Met Growth Standard

Standard

Achievement Below Achievement Below

AYP AYP

Did Not Meet Growth Met Growth Standard

Standard

How to Measure Growth

•Student scaled scores are converted to NCE scores

•The mean NCE score for each school is calculated

•PVAAS revises all earlier estimates based on the addition of the current data

•PVAAS calculates an estimated NCE mean score

Okay… What “the heck” is an NCE Score?

• An NCE score indicates the position of a scaled score on a reference scale

• (mean =50, sd=21.06)z-score = Observed – Mean/SD

[basically you are calculating the number of standard deviations the data value is from the mean of its distribution]

• This allows the scaled score from different distributions with different scales to be compared

Estimated School Mean NCE Gain

Grade: 6 7 8 Mean NCE Gain over Grades Relative toGrowth Standard: 0.0 0.0 0.0

State 3-Yr-Avg:      Growth

StandardState

2005 Mean NCE Gain:

         

Std Error:          

2006 Mean NCE Gain:

2.0 G     2.0  

Std Error: 0.6     0.6  

2007 Mean NCE Gain:

3.3 G 8.2 G 2.2 G 4.6  

Std Error: 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3  

3-Yr-Avg NCE Gain:          

Std Error:          

Estimated School Mean NCE Scores

Grade: 6 7 8

 

State Base Year (2006):

50.0 50.0 50.0

State 3-Yr-Avg:      

2004 Mean:      

2005 Mean:     53.1

2006 Mean: 54.5 55.6 54.1

2007 Mean: 54.2 62.7 57.7

Projection Summary Tool

• PVAAS will allow you to identify students who need extra support in preparation for a future PSSA

• Projections are based on a combination of Math and Reading scores over time

Projection Ranges

• 0% - 40% Not likely without significant intervention programs

• 40% - 70% Could be successful with intervention programs

• 70% - 100% Likely to be successful with maintaining current program