PV CONFERENCE O sole mio che bella cosa - Sun & Wind … · 106Sun & Wind Energy 4/2007 PV CONFERENCE O sole mio ... che bella cosa Despite the record at-tendance of 3,000 par-ticipants

106 Sun & Wind Energy 4/2007

P V C O N F E R E N C E

O sole mio ... che bella cosa

Despite the record at-tendance of 3,000 par-ticipants at the PV con-ference there was no jostling at the spacious halls of the new Milan Exhibition Centre.

Enrico Caruso sang about the sun in 1916. »O sole mio, che bella cosa nella giornata è sole.« In English: »What a beautiful thing is a sunny day.« The photovoltaic sector would agree with that. The many days of sunshine in Italy and the revised feed-in law hold the promise of a lucra-

tive market.

Growing capacities and fortune hunters

A complete overview of the most important event for the European photovoltaic sector aside from the Inter-solar is impossible. Highlights remain – necessarily sub-jective ones. Two of these seem to accurately refl ect the situation in the sector, however:

In hall 20 there was a sort of advertising pillar at a crossing of two gangways, with job ads on it. In the past this sort of thing used to be the domain of those solar companies which produced cells or modules. This year the picture was completely diff erent: The purely solar companies involved in cell or module production had 28 job ads, but the suppliers of production equipment had 38. Now this result can in no way claim to be repre-

107Sun & Wind Energy 4/2007


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O sole mio ... che bella cosa The »European Photovoltaic Solar Energy

Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC)«,

which this year took place for the 22nd

time, has become as important as it is

vast. With 520 stands covering 30,000 m2,

the exhibition was almost as big as this

year’s Intersolar in Freiburg, Germany,

which is after all one of the world’s largest

solar fairs. On top of this was a tightly

packed conference programme with over

a thousand presentations. And don’t for-

get the conversations on the conference

fl oor – after all each participant had a

choice of 3,000 PV sector colleagues to

speak to.

sentative, but it does tally with the core sentiment from many individual discussions on the stands: Growth rates in production technology are currently higher than in the main PV market itself. Both the expansion of exist-ing production lines and the setting up of completely new sites are at the moment making full demands on the equipment providers – this is true for engineering services just as much as for the supply of production equipment. The service provider IB Vogt of Berlin, Ger-many, which designs complete solar factories, has tre-bled its number of employees in just two years to 150, and once again had ten new job offers going in Milan. Put somewhat acutely you could say that the technolo-gy companies were the only ones at the exhibition which still actually had something to sell. While order requests to solar cell and module manufacturers as well as wholesalers were answered with a shake of the head, the equipment suppliers were still able to close con-tracts for the delivery of new production lines or com-ponents – with long delivery times, however. One pos-sible conclusion is thus as follows. Just as in any other industry the state of investments is an early indicator for the development of a sector. According to this the worldwide photovoltaic industry is about to go into overdrive. It is in for one hell of a take-off. But overca-pacities will be hellish too, as the development of the markets in Europe, the USA and Asia has not been able to keep up so far. The current overdemand is solely down

to the continuing shortage of silicon. If some of the hopeful markets do not develop according to popular »accelerated scenarios«, expensive over-capacities could quickly lead to even more expensive over-production.

In the same hall an experienced marketing woman from an equally experienced solar company was amazed. She hadn’t known that so many companies had already been active in the sector for 20 years. She obviously didn’t know many solar pioneers at all. Ok, I’m being sarcastic – the comment was aimed at several ex-hibiting companies who were indeed also unknown to long-term observers of the field, but which still insisted that they had decades of experience in PV technology. The only bit of truth here is that the sector is becoming increasingly difficult to keep track of, even for profes-sionals. There are many newcomers who are entering the sector more or less vigorously. Bold visions can be found: Solarvalue AG of Berlin, Germany, for example, plans to produce 4,400 tons of solar silicon annually right from the start in 2008 at a calcium carbide factory bought up in Slovenia – by upgrading metallurgical sil-icon. Is the announcement the usual »storytelling« of a newly set up public company, or does it tell of a golden eye for business? Why has no-one else come up with the idea? »There are lots of fortune hunters around«, was the assessment of another sector expert. To put that positively: This too is a sign of a final breakthrough, as has been seen in other sectors.

108


Sun & Wind Energy 4/2007

Happy faces from the host country: The Italian minister

for the environment, Alfonso Scanio (second from left),

wants to have at least 3 GWp of photovoltaic power in-

stalled in the country by 2016.

Photos (12): Wilhelm Breuer

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Italy is starting from a low base

Gerhard Willeke, head of the German Fraunhofer Insti-tute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, opened the confer-ence with the words: »Italy has all the prerequisites not just to become football world champion, but also PV world champion.« This little joke shows that expecta-tions for the country are high. Reasons for this are obvi-ously the climatic conditions on the boot of Italy, but al-so the revised »Conto Energia« law from February 2007, which set high tariffs for the feeding-in of solar electric-ity and simplified procedures. Depending on the sys-tem size and type, the feed-in tariff now lies between 0.36 und 0.49 €/kWh, with a degression of 2 % per an-num coming in after 2009. Under certain circumstances, feed-in top-ups of up to 30 % are possible. Additionally, there are support programmes for public buildings. With these instruments Italy could become one of Eu-rope’s top three alongside Spain and Germany, hopes

Winfried Hoffmann, president of the European Photo-voltaic Industry Association (EPIA).

The Italian minister for the environment, Alfonso Scanio, was blowing from the same trumpet. The Italian government has set a target of having at least 3,000 MWp of photovoltaic power installed in the country by 2016. »The solar energy sector is the most important of the renewable energies for Italy«, said the minister. »Not just because Italy lies in the so-called sunshine belt, but because we have solar tradition.« He pointed out that at the beginning of the 90’s Italy was at the European avantgarde of photovoltaics. Then, however, development went into a deep sleep. »Now we are waking up again.«

This last statement reflects reality more accurately than the hooray-boom jubilation of many professional optimists in the marketing departments of German PV companies. For the growth rates in Italy may be impres-sive, but they are starting from a low base. Up to the re-vision of the »Conto Energia« only a little more than 60 MWp had been installed – considering the enormous potential in the country one can unreservedly talk of a new beginning. And yet all the requirements for a suc-cessful reawakening have so far been met. The amount of encouragement is huge – there is talk of a market volume of 50 MWp and more for 2007, in the foyer there was even talk of over 100 MWp.

There are still market hurdles to be overcome, how-ever. The largest is the link between feed-in tariffs and government coffers. The tariff will be paid for out of tax revenue, and not as in Germany, where it is passed on to electricity customers. Constant arguments with the treasury are thus guaranteed. In addition come bureau-cratic hurdles resulting from trying to grid-connect sys-tems in the face of unwilling grid operators and from a lack of knowledge on the part of local authorities. Min-ister Scanio told of one case in which a local planning authority demanded a noise-emissions assessment from the operator of a large-scale PV plant.

The Italian government has set up a national com-mittee for solar energy to remove such barriers. The committee is also to look at something which is impor-

Political VIPs: The Italian minister for the environment,

Alfonso Scanio (right), on a tour at the fair together with

exhibition organiser Peter Helm (centre), head of WIP,

Munich.

110 Sun & Wind Energy 4/2007

It is no longer just cells and modules which come from China: At the group stands

companies presented lamina-tors, EVA foil and anti-reflec-

tion-coated front panes.


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tant like in no other country in the world, namely the compatibility of photovoltaics and the protection of historic buildings and monuments. Ignoring the pe-ripheral areas of large cities, half of the country consists of protected buildings, or of buildings where the sur-rounding area has qualities worth protecting. Although we will have to wait and see what actually happens, the sector believes the Italian market will therefore mainly be characterised by large systems on commercially used buildings or areas of land. Italy’s rich cultural her-itage will also have another effect: We can expect to see pioneering design solutions for building-integrated and monument-friendly photovoltaics.

German companies on the move

Italy is of course interesting for export oriented German companies – not so much as a manufacturing location but as a sales territory. The chairman of Q-Cells, Anton Milner, threw up a grand scenario at a press conference: »Germany makes 1,000 MWp a year with 35,000 em-ployees – this is also possible in Italy.« The development of the photovoltaic market in Italy is also being fuelled by energy prices, as these know, said Milner, »only one

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direction: upwards«. For the year 2010 Milner envisaged a systems price in Italy of 3.50 €/Wp.

The good news spread by the Q-Cells strategist visi-bly perked up the Italian partners who were present. Luciano Brandoni, founder and owner of Brandoni So-lare srl from Castelfidardo on the Italian Adriatic coast, wants to make the first modules using cells supplied by

114



Q-Cells in June 2008. He stressed the good working re-lationship between himself and the cell experts from Thalheim: »We are with Q-Cells because they believe in our product.« In Italy, as in France, personal connections have a high status. Q-Cells had a total of five module manufacturers around them in the fold. The deliveries already agreed upon have a volume of between 130 and 300 MWp with a value of up to € 700 million.

Only Renergies Italia S.p.A. from Urbisaglia in central Italy so far has a module production line up and run-ning, however. The already certified company has been producing modules using mono- and polycrystalline cells for two years, mainly for large turn-key systems. The other four companies are more or less beginners: Brandoni has until now made bathroom facilities; Enerqos, with its headquarters in Navacchio near Pisa, is a start-up by managers from various high-tech fields; Tech Tile is planning to enter the roof-integrated PV market; and Vipiemme S.p.A. is from the battery busi-ness and has just set up its first module production line.

The market is going to be THIS big: Paula Mints is head of the Photovoltaic Services

Programme at Navigant Con-sulting and is well-known for

her intimate knowledge of the sector.

This doesn’t necessarily mean anything, though – and certainly not a lack of competence, but the fact that the number two on the world market is working with com-panies which are just making their first experiences in photovoltaics, says quite a bit about the foundations of the Italian market.

Scarce, scarcer, silicon?

Apart from looking at developments on the Italian mar-ket, a gathering of the sector at the scale of the EU PVSEC is naturally also an opportunity to look at photo-voltaics from a global perspective. The discussion of prices that has taken place in the last few years could still be heard echoing on the fringes of the conference. But more important were scenarios of the future course of the photovoltaics economy. In a well-attended pre-sentation at the EPIA industry forum, the American sec-tor expert Paula Mints looked into her crystal ball: She expects an increase in market volume to 6 GWp world-wide in 2009 – in the accelerated scenario. In the con-servative scenario, which considers support for solar at current levels, the figure is still an impressive 4.6 GWp. Mints thus marked out the frameworks – even for the accelerated scenario – in a typically cautious manner. EPIA president Winfried Hoffmann saw the global PV market, although with a slightly different regional split, in similar dimensions: »We consider 6 GWp in the year 2010 to be perfectly possible.«

For an annual production of 6 to 7 GWp at an intrinsic silicon requirement of 8 to 9 g/Wp, approx. 65,000 tons per annum of silicon would be needed. Add to this the 35,000 tons per annum for the semiconductor industry and you come to 100,000 tons of pure silicon a year. »This amount should be on the market in 2010«, estimated Hoffmann, with a side glance at the extra capacities an-nounced by the large silicon manufacturers (see page 6).

The largest silicon manufacturer in the world, Hem-lock Semiconducter Corporation from the USA, confirms the EPIA president’s estimation. In a survey by the vice

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116



An impressive show: As usual, Solarworld from Germany doesn’t hold back when it comes to celebrating its own suc-cesses.

Discussion of prizes, not prices: Martin Green receiving the Einstein Award …

… and Arvind Shah receiving the Euro-pean Becquerel Prize. Photos (4): Jörn Iken

Einstein Award for Green, Becquerel Prize for ShahJust as last year the German company Solarworld AG held a stylish and opulent party to cele-brate the winner of the Einstein Award – a prize founded by the company that is awarded for ex-ceptional services towards the advancement of solar energy. This year the award went to the Australian scientist Martin Green. His research centre at the University of New South Wales holds the world record for the ef-fi ciency of crystalline solar cells, which stands at 24.7 %. For years now Green has been one of the opening speakers at the EU PVSEC and regularly surprises the audience with unconven-tional ideas.

Alongside this, Solarworld honours outstanding work by junior scientists. This time the Junior Award went to Tobias Ei-senbarth, Caspar Leendertz and Mark Wimmer, diploma students at the Hahn-Meitner Institute, for their work on the special electrical properties of crystal grain boundaries.

The European Becquerel Prize was awarded to the Swiss scien-tist Arvind Shah. He became well known through a series of inno-vations. A team under his leader-ship developed a high-speed deposition of amorphous silicon in 1987, and later also onto a fl exible substrate. His name is closely tied to the development of the micromorphic tandem cell.

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118



president of Hemlock, Gary Homan, in July 2007, the worldwide production capacity for polycrystalline silicon adds up to 114,000 tons (see interview on page 6).

Hoffmann also noted, however, that these capacities are already largely tied up in long-term supply obliga-tions: »Many, especially new companies, are going to be empty-handed.«

If one believes Hoffmann, then silicon production should just be enough for the accelerated scenario – scarcity, as in the last few years, would not be an issue. But there were also other opinions, especially on the ex-hibition side. Natalie Bauer from the sales team at Sanyo stated the multinational’s official view that the shortage of silicon would continue until 2010. Other companies such as Q-Cells put back their expected all-clear for silicon supplies from 2008 to 2009. A telling view behind the scenes could be found in a comment by Thomas Zarella, president of the American mechanical engineering company GT Solar, with its headquarters in Merrimack. The company from the east coast of America is one of the very few manufacturers of pro-

duction facilities for silicon manufacturing using the Siemens process – so the American should know what he is talking about. Presented with a list of announced new silicon production Zarella said: »There’s a lot of hot air around.« In other words: More is being announced than delivered. If you take his words as read, then a short-term solution for the problem will not be possi-ble. Anyone who hasn’t already ordered any machinery won’t be ready to start production for three years. Ac-cording to Zarella, the bottleneck here is the setting up of the chemicals plant to manufacture the gas trichlor-silane from metallurgic silicon, which after purification is the starting point for obtaining ultrapure polysilicon in the Siemens reactor. If interested parties already have access to trichlorsilane, as some Russian companies do, then a production line for manufacturing polycrystal-line silicon could be up and running within eighteen months.

The ongoing tight situation is having a negative ef-fect on new and small companies at the ingot and wa-fer stage. Some are degenerating to become purely on-demand mills, because they are not able to source their own raw materials and can only cut ingots provided by their customers – or smelt ingots from silicon provid-ed in the same way. We can report that there is a Rus-sian ingot manufacturer who is being offered 275 $/kg for his ingots by spot market traders, but who is expect-ed to pay 350 $/kg for solar grade silicon. The back-ground to this deal is as follows: Silicon granulate is more profitable for traders because it can be stretched with low quality material such as »tops and tails«. These are the upper and lower portions of silicon blocks, in which impurities concentrate during solidification, and which are sawn off before wafers are cut. That spot-market silicon is stretched in this way was confirmed by a large Chinese manufacture we talked to. If these are not just isolated incidents then problems of quality will soon affect the sector – although this would also give European companies, if suitably prepared, the chance to distinguish themselves from the world market in terms of quality. They would thus be at least partly able to escape from a potential global price war in a few years’ time.

Potential silicon suppliers from Siberia: The Russian Ni-

tol Group from Moscow al-ready has a trichlorsilane

plant at Lake Baikal and has already ordered the Siemens

reactors for the deposition of polycrystalline silicon

blocks from the US-American company GT Solar.

Well shielded from the public exhibition: At the Chinese

wafer supplier LDK Solar Co. Ltd., Xinyu City, negotiations

took place behind closed doors, as the company aims

to expand its silicon produc-tion to 6,000 tons a year from

2008.

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120



A testing time for European PV

The fact that the 23rd EU PVSEC is taking place in Va-lencia can be seen as a negative sign, even though un-intended by the organisers. If you look at the locations from 2005 to 2008 – Spain, Germany, Italy, Spain again – it becomes clear on what sort of knife-edge the sec-tor in Europe is dancing its boom tango. It’s two and a half boom countries plus two dozen countries in which nothing, or at least not a lot, is happening. The old practise of holding the EU PVSEC in countries which need massive support for photovoltaic development would increase the choice of possible locations at a swipe. Warsaw, Lisbon, Athens, Riga, Sofia or Bucharest – nothing much is happening there. Not yet, say the professional optimists from the national and European photovoltaic associations. But changing this will require a lot of work in the political committees of the Europe-an Union.

B-to-B at all the stands: The exhibition during the PV con-

ference provides ideal con-ditions for intensive negotia-

tions.

The situation in the Asiatic countries only appears to be different. Although there is enormous demand for production equipment, the current and future produc-tion capacities are mainly to serve exports. Here, either the home market has so far played virtually no role, or it no longer plays a large role.

The 22nd EU PVSEC made it clear that the European photovoltaic industry is facing a war on two fronts. On the one hand it must stabilise market developments in Germany and Spain against political opposition and work to establish a (home) market in other European coun-tries and in Asia in the first place. On the other it must combat competition from the Far East, which is driving an aggressive price war and is also continuing to catch up technologically – whether this is through plagiarism or its own abilities is a topic for intellectuals. ✹

Jörn Iken

Jörn Iken is a long term S&WE author based in Hamburg, northern Ger-many. He is a specialist in wind energy and photovoltaics.

Oliver Schäfer is a political consult-ant from the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), an umbrel-la organisation which represents both manufacturers and scientifi c institutes in the fi eld of renewable energies in Brussels. At the indus-try forum he mentioned the new EU Commission directive, which is supposed to implement the aims for renewable energies formulated in March 2007 (20 % share by 2020). The lobbyists from conventional power generation are pulling all the stops, however.

S&WE: Mr. Schäfer, what is happening in Brussels?Schäfer: A lot, commotion all over the place. Everyone is now think-ing about what will come as a result of the political decisions in March. The binding target for 2020 now has to be implemented. The debate on how this target can be reached is in full fl ow. The opinions range from very good approaches, meaning continuity in that which has already been built up, to the exact opposite – in other words to throw everything overboard and do something radically new.

S&WE: What does that last point mean more specifi cally?Schäfer: These people are betting on emissions trading and are thus ogling what is perceived to be the cheapest method of implementa-tion.

S&WE: So what are the chances of getting a pan-European feed-in tariff system similar to the EEG?Schäfer: This is unfortunately completely unrealistic at the moment; it wouldn’t be got through politically. We should instead be paying much more attention to keeping the existing feed-in tariff s in the Eu-ropean countries, and improving them where they are not yet having an optimal eff ect. But I can’t imagine a uniform system coming into play at a pan-European level.

S&WE: Has the sector been asleep on this issue or is the lobby for renew-able energies too weak?Schäfer: Neither nor. The question is whether it has ever been thor-oughly thought through what an implementation of a pan-European feed-in tariff would look like. We can already get an idea of this today: There are 19 countries with a feed-in tariff , but the system is only re-ally having an eff ect in fi ve or six countries. The feed-in tariff is merely one aspect; the development of a PV market requires quite a bit more than this. Without public acceptance for solar power, feed-in doesn’t work: It’s the same if you don’t get a grid connection, or you have to combat excessive bureaucracy. These are all things which must be dealt with at a national level. This is why you have to ask yourself whether the feed-in tariff s should really be regulated at an EU level – all the way from Finland to Spain.

S&WE: So things don’t look good for a pan-European regulation of feed-in?Schäfer: I don’t know whether it’s worth fi ghting for either. In my opin-ion it would be better to create the frameworks at the Brussels level and leave the precise regulations for the individual member countries to decide. A uniform feed-in system is not an absolute necessity as far as I’m concerned. The interview was conducted by Jörn Iken.

»A uniform feed-in tariff is unlikely«

121Sun & Wind Energy 4/2007

Political consultant for renew-ables: Oliver Schäfer from the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) Photo: Jörn Iken

Documents

PV CONFERENCE O sole mio che bella cosa - Sun & Wind … · 106Sun & Wind Energy 4/2007 PV CONFERENCE O sole mio ... che bella cosa Despite the record at-tendance of 3,000 par-ticipants