Pupil Enrollment Projection Study Update · PLANTE MORAN CRESA | SERVICES & CAPABILITIES. 4 Demographic Trends in Southeast Michigan P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C

Pupil Enrollment Projection Study Update

Presented to: Utica Community Schools

pmcresa.com | (248) 223-3500

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The Plante Moran Cresa Difference

P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S

Accountants/CPAs

Architects

Attorneys

Project Managers

Construction Experts

Development Specialists

Engineers

Financial Analysts

Real Estate Professionals

❑Collective Expertise

Planners, architects, engineers, construction experts, financial advisors and real estate professionals – dedicated to our clients

❑ Full Service

Ability to service K-12 clients from concept to completion

▪ Enrollment Projections – recognized by Dept. of Treasury

▪ Bond Planning / Feasibility Studies

▪ Program Management during design, construction,

and close-out

▪ Real Estate Asset Positioning

❑ Independent Advice

Advisory services are provided without conflicts — our

objective is your success

Who are Plante Moran Cresa’s Clients…A-Z

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❑ Ann Arbor Public Schools

❑ Birmingham Public Schools

❑ Bloomfield Hills Schools

❑ Dearborn Public Schools

❑ Farmington Public Schools

❑ Forest Hills Schools

❑ Grand Rapids Public Schools

❑ Livonia Public Schools

❑ Plymouth-Canton Schools

❑ Rochester Community Schools

❑ Traverse City Area Public Schools

❑ Utica Community Schools

❑ Walled Lake Consolidated Schools

❑ Wayne-Westland Schools

❑ Warren Consolidated Schools

❑ Zeeland Public Schools

PLANTE MORAN CRESA | SERVICES & CAPABILITIES

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Demographic Trends in Southeast Michigan


1957 – Height of “Baby Boomer”Approx. 208,500 births

2018 – Approx.107,500 births

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Southeast Michigan Council of Government (SEMCOG) recently released a Quick Factsreport detailing its 2045 forecast of school-age population in Southeast Michigan that forecasts a continued drop in school-age population.

Some highlights:• School-age population has been declining since the early 2000’s. The region has seen

a 15% decline in 15 years (2000-2015).

• The number is forecast to drop another 10% by 2025.

• The impact has been seen in elementary and middle schools over the past 15 years. Going forward, the impact will be more prevalent in high schools and post-secondary education.

• At the individual school-district level, all but 12 of the 112 school districts in the region are forecast to experience declines in school-age children between now and 2025.

• By 2026, the senior population (65+) will outnumber children in Southeast Michigan.

https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__SMCG.informz.net_z_cjUucD9taT04MDc1OTQ2JnA9MSZ1PTExMDYxMDI1ODgmbGk9NjAwNjk1Njc_index.html&d=DwMFaQ&c=vbE3-ubQJbJoSTO8ckss2NPRm9dTHBoGTsm4zrv1Rfw&r=olrxDc4mDZh9XKxjgKTgmPmp_RdkJlKN_DAWcfajfkI&m=APYMGkvHxfuzAgV5R6Er_IA5QT8Ah-QRSB2Cqw0dues&s=wc0JLf6WkspWFcMncVOqeZZRlqw_ADFH53vG4R7cCfk&e=

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Pupil Enrollment Projection Study Process


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Pupil Enrollment Projection Study (PEPS) Process


❑ PMC’s Process

▪ Demographic Growth

▪ GIS

▪ US Census Bureau

▪ Core Base Statistical Area

▪ Primary Area (District)

▪ Comparison #1

(County)

▪ Comparison #2 (State)

▪ Cohort Survival – DS 4061

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PEPS Findings


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PEPS Findings


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PEPS Findings


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PEPS Findings


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PEPS Findings


Age 0-5 CohortCurrent K-12 Cohort

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PEPS Findings


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PEPS Findings


START HERE

Historical Projected

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PEPS Findings



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PEPS Findings



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Utica Community Schools – Demographic & Enrollment Summary


❑ Projected Enrollment Trends

Utica Community Schools is projected to attract approximately 19.70% of the eligible K-students

Grade “K” enrollment is projected to level off at 1,805 students in the next 5 years

Grade “12” enrollment will be less than 2,000 for the first time in 2022

Utica Community Schools will have less than 25,000 FTE student in 2022

2010 2019 2024Difference

(2010-2024)

Population 184,264 192,705 196,853 + 12,589

Total Households (Occupied) 70,186 73,092 75,347 + 5,161

Median Household Owner Age 52.2 53.8 54.4 +2.2

Enrolled School Age Children 31,295 30,925 31,007 -288

❑ Demographic Trends

K% of Birth Utica Community Schools 19.07% 19.72% 19.70% +0.63%

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Utica Community Schools – Demographic & Enrollment Summary


❑ Enrolled Students (2013-2014 vs. 2019-2020 School Year)

2013-2014: 28,4942019-2020: 26,599

1,895 (student decrease)

2019-2020: 26,5992024-2025: 25,649

950 (student decrease)

❑ Impact to General Fund Considerations

2013- 2019: 1,895 (Less Students) x $8,242 (Foundation Allowance) = $15,618,590 decrease last 7 years2020- 2025: 950 (Less Students) x $8,242 (Foundation Allowance) = $7,829,000 decrease next 5 years

❑ Impact to Facility Footprint ConsiderationsUtica Community Schools should review its educational programs in relation to its facility footprint due to the decrease of approximately 7% of student population over the past 7 years and projected decrease of an approximately 4% of student population in the next 5 years

❑ PMC Projection Accuracy: Actual to Projection Comparison

K-12 Students Projected (2019-20 PMC Projection): 25,653Full Time Equivalent K-12 Students (2019-2020 Fall Count): 25,584

-69 Pupils (99.7% Accuracy)

Helping to

Plan the Future

Paul R. Wills, AIA, LEED AP

Partner

[email protected]

(248) 223-3316

pmcresa.com | (248) 223-3500

Documents

Pupil Enrollment Projection Study Update · PLANTE MORAN CRESA | SERVICES & CAPABILITIES. 4 Demographic Trends in Southeast Michigan P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C