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Poultry industry in North America
Los Cabos, Baja California Sur
June 13, 2008
2
Consumer confidence in the US
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun-
97N
ov-9
7Ap
r-98
Sep-
98Fe
b-99
Jul-9
9D
ec-9
9M
ay-0
0O
ct-0
0M
ar-0
1Au
g-01
Jan-
02Ju
n-02
Nov
-02
Apr-
03Se
p-03
Feb-
04Ju
l-04
Dec
-04
May
-05
Oct
-05
Mar
-06
Aug-
06Ja
n-07
Jun-
07N
ov-0
7Ap
r-08
Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100)
Consumer Expectations Index (1985=100)
Source: Polling report with data from the Conference BoardNext data release: June 24
3
Consumer confidence in Mexico
(2003=100)Source: INEGINext data release: June 4
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-
05Fe
b-05
Mar
-05
Apr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5A
ug-0
5S
ep-0
5O
ct-0
5N
ov-0
5D
ec-0
5Ja
n-06
Feb-
06M
ar-0
6Ap
r-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug
-06
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7A
ug-0
7S
ep-0
7O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8Ap
r-08
May
-08
4
Global indicator of economic activity
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
Source: INEGI (1993=100), seasonally adjusted
Next data release: May 29
5
Industrial production growth
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Jan-
06
Feb-
06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06
Jul-0
6
Aug
-06
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
(%)
Total Manufacturing
Annual growth rate
Source: INEGI, data set 2003=100Next data release: June 25
* In 2008, holly week in Mexico occurred last March while in 2007 it took place in April. This leap implied less days of economic activity in March than in the previous year
* Holly week in March
6
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
14,000,000
15,000,000
Jan-
98
Jun-
98
Nov
-98
Apr-
99
Sep-
99
Feb-
00
Jul-0
0
Dec
-00
May
-01
Oct
-01
Mar
-02
Aug-
02
Jan-
03
Jun-
03
Nov
-03
Apr-
04
Sep-
04
Feb-
05
Jul-0
5
Dec
-05
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Aug-
07
Jan-
08
Employment in formal sector
Source: Insured workers at the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS)
Next data release: June 18
Abr-08
7
GDP annual growth*
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1
US Mexico
*/ Real Gross Domestic Product: percent change from quarter one year agoSource: INEGI y USDOC
8
Mexico’s export performance
Annual Growth Rate
Source: INEGI and USDOC
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total US
9
Mexico’s monthly export performance
*/ Percentage change from the month a year ago
Source:INEGI y USDOC
Annual Growth Rate*
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Aug
-06
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
US Total
Next data release: June 14 for the US and June 10 for Mexico
10
Share of US total imports
Source: USDOC
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mexico Canada Germany China Japan
Per
cent
age
11
Gross fixed Investment in Mexico
Annual growth rate
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-
05Fe
b-05
Mar
-05
Apr-
05M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5Au
g-05
Sep-
05O
ct-0
5N
ov-0
5D
ec-0
5Ja
n-06
Feb-
06M
ar-0
6Ap
r-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug-
06Se
p-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr-
07M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7Au
g-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8
Perc
enta
ge
Total Machinery and Equipment
Source: INEGINext data release: June 15
12
Mexico’s imports of capital goods
Source: INEGI
Monthly Growth(Variation over the same month of the last year)
Next data release: July 10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Aug-
06
Sep-
06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr-
07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug-
07
Sep-
07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
Apr-
08
13
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan-
03Fe
b-03
Mar
-03
Apr-
03M
ay-0
3Ju
n-03
Jul-0
3Au
g-03
Sep-
03O
ct-0
3N
ov-0
3D
ec-0
3Ja
n-04
Feb-
04M
ar-0
4Ap
r-04
May
-04
Jun-
04Ju
l-04
Aug-
04Se
p-04
Oct
-04
Nov
-04
Dec
-04
Jan-
05Fe
b-05
Mar
-05
Apr-
05M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5Au
g-05
Sep-
05O
ct-0
5N
ov-0
5D
ec-0
5Ja
n-06
Feb-
06M
ar-0
6Ap
r-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug-
06Se
p-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr-
07M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7Au
g-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8Ap
r-08
May
-08
%
Source: INEGINext data release: July 7
Mexico's inflation begins to pick up
Monthly series: annual inflation
14
Government of Mexico has taken measures
Opening of grains and animal feed to international markets
Agricultural support: fertilizers, diesel
Income complement to poor consumers
Constant gasoline and diesel prices
No export promotion ideas
Congressional elections July 2009
15
Real food prices in Mexico
*CPI= National Consumer Price Index, January 1994 = 100 Source: Banxico
55
65
75
85
95
105
Jan-
90A
pr-9
0Ju
l-90
Oct
-90
Jan-
91A
pr-9
1Ju
l-91
Oct
-91
Jan-
92A
pr-9
2Ju
l-92
Oct
-92
Jan-
93A
pr-9
3Ju
l-93
Oct
-93
Jan-
94A
pr-9
4Ju
l-94
Oct
-94
Jan-
95A
pr-9
5Ju
l-95
Oct
-95
Jan-
96A
pr-9
6Ju
l-96
Oct
-96
Jan-
97A
pr-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Jan-
98A
pr-9
8Ju
l-98
Oct
-98
Jan-
99A
pr-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Jan-
00A
pr-0
0Ju
l-00
Oct
-00
Jan-
01A
pr-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Jan-
02A
pr-0
2Ju
l-02
Oct
-02
Jan-
03A
pr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct
-04
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06A
pr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8
Food Meat Milk, Dairy Products and Eggs
Food Prices Relative to the CPI*
16
Real meat prices in Mexico
*CPI= National Consumer Price Index, January 1994 = 100 Source: Banxico
Meat Prices Relative to the CPI*
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Ene
-90
Abr
-90
Jul-9
0O
ct-9
0E
ne-9
1A
br-9
1Ju
l-91
Oct
-91
Ene
-92
Abr
-92
Jul-9
2O
ct-9
2E
ne-9
3A
br-9
3Ju
l-93
Oct
-93
Ene
-94
Abr
-94
Jul-9
4O
ct-9
4E
ne-9
5A
br-9
5Ju
l-95
Oct
-95
Ene
-96
Abr
-96
Jul-9
6O
ct-9
6E
ne-9
7A
br-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Ene
-98
Abr
-98
Jul-9
8O
ct-9
8E
ne-9
9A
br-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Ene
-00
Abr
-00
Jul-0
0O
ct-0
0E
ne-0
1A
br-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Ene
-02
Abr
-02
Jul-0
2O
ct-0
2E
ne-0
3A
br-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Ene
-04
Abr
-04
Jul-0
4O
ct-0
4E
ne-0
5A
br-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Ene
-06
Abr
-06
Jul-0
6O
ct-0
6E
ne-0
7A
br-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Ene
-08
Abr
-08
Poultry Swine Beef
17
Real corn prices in Mexico
*CPI= National Consumer Price Index, January 1994 = 100 Source: Banxico
Corn Prices Relative to the CPI*
75
90
105
120
Ene
-90
Abr
-90
Jul-9
0O
ct-9
0E
ne-9
1A
br-9
1Ju
l-91
Oct
-91
Ene
-92
Abr
-92
Jul-9
2O
ct-9
2E
ne-9
3A
br-9
3Ju
l-93
Oct
-93
Ene
-94
Abr
-94
Jul-9
4O
ct-9
4E
ne-9
5A
br-9
5Ju
l-95
Oct
-95
Ene
-96
Abr
-96
Jul-9
6O
ct-9
6E
ne-9
7A
br-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Ene
-98
Abr
-98
Jul-9
8O
ct-9
8E
ne-9
9A
br-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Ene
-00
Abr
-00
Jul-0
0O
ct-0
0E
ne-0
1A
br-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Ene
-02
Abr
-02
Jul-0
2O
ct-0
2E
ne-0
3A
br-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Ene
-04
Abr
-04
Jul-0
4O
ct-0
4E
ne-0
5A
br-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Ene
-06
Abr
-06
Jul-0
6O
ct-0
6E
ne-0
7A
br-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Ene
-08
Abr
-08
18*NPPI= National Producer Price Index, January 1994 = 100 Source: Banxico
Real producer prices in Mexico
Grains-based Animal Feed Prices Relative to the NPPI*
80
95
110
125
140
155
170
Jan-
94A
pr-9
4Ju
l-94
Oct
-94
Jan-
95A
pr-9
5Ju
l-95
Oct
-95
Jan-
96A
pr-9
6Ju
l-96
Oct
-96
Jan-
97A
pr-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Jan-
98A
pr-9
8Ju
l-98
Oct
-98
Jan-
99A
pr-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Jan-
00A
pr-0
0Ju
l-00
Oct
-00
Jan-
01A
pr-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Jan-
02A
pr-0
2Ju
l-02
Oct
-02
Jan-
03A
pr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct
-04
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06A
pr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8
Wheat Mill Corn Mill Animal Feed Products
19
Target US federal funds rateand oil prices
Source: Federal Reserve Board, “Intended Federal Funds Rate” and PEMEX
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
West Texas Intermediate Brent Mexican blend Intended Federal Funds rate
$ U
SRat
e
20
Commodity prices
Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development; Addressing the Global Food Crisis: Key trade, investment and commodity policies in ensuring sustainable food security and alleviating poverty
Dol
lars
per
ton
21
Inflation rates
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook 2008
-2
3
8
13
18
23
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Canada China Japan Mexico United States
%
22
A devalued U.S. dollar
Source: Factiva.
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
31-m
ay-0
8
31-m
ar-0
8
31-J
an-2
008
30-n
ov-0
7
30-s
ep-0
7
31-ju
l-07
31-m
ay-0
7
31-m
ar-0
7
31-J
an-2
007
30-n
ov-0
6
30-s
ep-0
6
31-ju
l-06
31-m
ay-0
6
31-m
ar-0
6
31-J
an-2
006
30-n
ov-0
5
30-s
ep-0
5
31-ju
l-05
31-m
ay-0
5
31-m
ar-0
5
31-J
an-2
005
30-n
ov-0
4
30-s
ep-0
4
31-ju
l-04
31-m
ay-0
4
31-m
ar-0
4
31-J
an-2
004
30-n
ov-0
3
30-s
ep-0
3
31-ju
l-03
Canadian Dollar Euro
23
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate
Source: Factiva.
0.08
0.09
0.1
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
31-m
ay-0
8
31-m
ar-0
8
31-J
an-2
008
30-n
ov-0
7
30-s
ep-0
7
31-ju
l-07
31-m
ay-0
7
31-m
ar-0
7
31-J
an-2
007
30-n
ov-0
6
30-s
ep-0
6
31-ju
l-06
31-m
ay-0
6
31-m
ar-0
6
31-J
an-2
006
30-n
ov-0
5
30-s
ep-0
5
31-ju
l-05
31-m
ay-0
5
31-m
ar-0
5
31-J
an-2
005
30-n
ov-0
4
30-s
ep-0
4
31-ju
l-04
31-m
ay-0
4
31-m
ar-0
4
31-J
an-2
004
30-n
ov-0
3
30-s
ep-0
3
31-ju
l-03
Yuan Mexican peso
24
US total exports: sorghum
*/ Export volume data for HTS 100700, Grain Sorghum
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Volume, MT
25
US export growth: sorghum
*/ Export volume data for HTS 100700, Grain Sorghum
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total Mexico
Annual growth
26
US exports by market: sorghum
*/ 2007 country ranking. Export volume data for HTS 100700, Grain Sorghum
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1- Mexico
2- Spain
3- Japan
4- France
5- Netherlands
US Top Export Markets(Volume MT)
27
US total exports: corn
*/ Export volume data for HTS 100590, Corn
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
Volume, MT
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
28
US export growth: corn
*/ Export volume data for HTS 100590, Corn
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
Annual growth
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total Japan Mexico
29
US exports by market: corn
*/ 2007 country ranking. Export volume data for HTS 100590, Corn
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
US Top Export Markets(Volume MT)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1- Japan
2- Mexico
3- Republic ofKorea
4- Taiwan
5- Egypt
30
US total exports: soybeans
17,500,000
19,500,000
21,500,000
23,500,000
25,500,000
27,500,000
29,500,000
31,500,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Volume, MT
*/ Export volume data for HTS 120100, Soy Beans
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
31
US export growth: soybeans
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total China Mexico
*/ Export volume data for HTS 120100, Soy Beans
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
Annual growth
32
US exports by market: soybeans
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1- China
2- Mexico
3- Japan
4- Taiwan
5- Indonesia
US Top Export Markets(Volume, MT)
*/ 2007 country ranking. Export volume data for HTS 120100, Soy Beans
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
33
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
US total exports: live poultry
Value, thousand dollars
*/ Export volume data for HTS 0105, live poultry
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
34
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1- Canada
2- Mexico
3- China
4- Thailand
5- Brazil
US exports by market: live poultry
US Top Export Markets(Value, thousand dollars)
*/ Export volume data for HTS 0105, Live Poultry
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
35
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
US total exports: poultry meat
Value, thousand dollars
*/ Export volume data for HTS 0207, Poultry Meat
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
36
US exports by market: poultry meat
US Top Export Markets(Value, thousand dollars)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1- Russia
3- Mexico
5- Hong Kong
4 Canada
2- China
*/ Export volume data for HTS 0207, meat poultry poultry
Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics
37
North American integration
Integrated grain market
Integrated sanitary region
Integrated labor market
Integrated consumer market
Integrated export market
Thank you Obama, thank you Hillary
Need to develop an agenda
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An agenda for North American integration
Health care
Education and training
Nafta visas
Mutual recognition
Land grant universities
Bicentennial Scholarship fund
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An agenda for North American integration
Joint sanitary control programs
Services
Transport (all modes)
Infrastructure
Joint exports
Promotion
Cummulation