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Pacific Union International Q1 2012 Quarterly Report
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Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
Q1. 2012
A Member Of Real Living
PacUnion.com
We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union International
Please remember to seek out local news, trend analysis and advice for your real estate decisions. PacUnion.com
A Member of Real Living
A Member of Real LivingPacUnion.com
Q1. 2012Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
SAN FRANCISCO
Q1. 2012
Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
A Member Of Real Living
SAN FRANCISCO
800700600500400300200100
0‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
533 545
703
587 584517
362
237
417514 507
San Francisco 1st Quarter Condos Sold
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
584 582 552 562509 492
407 333467 497 503
San Francisco 1st Quarter Single Family Homes Sold
2012: The Best Year in San Francisco Since 2006We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
In San Francisco, we saw a 1.2% percent overall increase in home sales in the first quarter of 2012, compared to Q1 2011. This continues a steady upward trend for the last three years; if the activity continues, and we expect it will, we should see around 2,605 single-family home sales in 2012 – our best year overall since 2006.Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
We’re experiencing accelerated activity in several price points. For example, single-family home sales in the $1 million to $3 million range were up 5 percent, while the $3 million and over market saw a 9 percent jump.
Condominium sales have been particularly robust. Total units sales in the $1 - $2 million range jumped 29 percent compared to Q1 2011, while the $2 million and over market was up 30 percent.
Would-be buyers may be stymied, however, by a lack of inventory. Due to the laws of supply and demand, multiple offers are common; in one instance recently we saw 30 offers – leaving 29 frustrated buyers hungry for the next property.
This is having the effect of pushing prices up. Condominium median prices are on the rise in Noe Valley (up 9%), as well as in the NOPA (North of Panhandle), Hayes Valley, and Lower Pacific Heights areas (all with a 14% increase).
Looking out on the rest of 2012, we see no signs of waning demand in our area. It’s an opportune time to put a property on the market. Buyers are finally rushing in, after years on the sidelines, in an effort to grab historically low interest rates and buy before the next appreciation wave – a wave that, at long last, seems to be upon us.For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
Patrick BarberPresident | San Francisco Region
PacUnion.comOne Letterman DriveBuilding C, Suite 300
San Francisco, CA 94129
Pacific Union International Real Estate Report Q1. 2012
MEDIAN PRICEA Member Of Real Living
Q1 2012 Units Sold By District
■TENANCIES IN COMMON
■CONDOMINIUMS
■SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SOMA/MISSION/POTRERO
NOE/CASTRO/HAIGHT
NOB/RUSSIAN/TELEGRAPH HILL
ST. FRANCIS WOOD/MIRALOMA/FOREST HILL
LAKE MERCED/INGLESIDE
RICHMOND/SEACLIFF
SUNSET/PARKSIDE
PAC HEIGHTS/MARINA
LOWER PAC HEIGHTS/HAYES/NOPA
BAYVIEW/EXCELSIOR
3
154
42 65
71
9
133
100
89
90
103
24
51
120
22
48
7
10
38
10
40
34
7
37
110
Q1 2012 Median Prices by District
■TENANCIES IN COMMON
■CONDOMINIUMS
■SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
Source: SFAR MLS, March 31, 2012
Source: SFAR MLS, March 31, 2012
NOB/RUSSIAN/TELEGRAPH HILL
LOWER PACHEIGHTS/
HAYES/NOPA
NOE/CASTRO/HAIGHT
RICHMOND/SEACLIFF
PAC HEIGHTS/MARINA
ST. FRANCIS WOOD/MIRALOMA/FOREST HILL
SUNSET/PARKSIDE
SOMA/MISSION/POTRERO
LAKE MERCED/INGLESIDE
BAYVIEW/EXCELSIOR
‘12
$1.09M
$670K
$513K
‘11
$1.39M
$590K
$585K
‘12
$1.84M
$605K
$557K
‘11
$2.44M
$629K
$615K
‘12
$2.76M
$942K
$719K
‘11
$2.72M
$939K
$1.03M
‘11
$1.28M
$775K
$570K
‘12
$1.45M
$844K
$551K‘11
$878K
$702K
$495K
‘12
$575K
$844K
$685K
‘11
$755K
$590K
$492K
‘12
$598K
$660K
$599K
‘11
$664K
$620K
$422K ‘12
$675K
$555K
‘11
$798K
$363K
‘12
$830K
$375K ‘11
$459K$300K
‘12
$479K$254K
‘11
$458K$315K
‘12
$450K$316K
5
Q1. 2012
A Member Of Real Living
Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
HOMES SOLD COMPARISON
Source: SFAR MLS, March 31, 2012
■TENANCIES IN COMMON
■CONDOMINIUMS
■SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
Types of San FranciscoProperties Sold in Q1 2012
Tenancies-inCommon
6%
Single FamilyHomes
47%Condos &
Co-ops47%
2012: The Best Year in San Francisco Since 2006We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
In San Francisco, we saw a 1.2% percent overall increase in home sales in the first quarter of 2012, compared to Q1 2011. This continues a steady upward trend for the last three years; if the activity continues, and we expect it will, we should see around 2,605 single-family home sales in 2012 – our best year overall since 2006.Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
We’re experiencing accelerated activity in several price points. For example, single-family home sales in the $1 million to $3 million range were up 5 percent, while the $3 million and over market saw a 9 percent jump.
Condominium sales have been particularly robust. Total units sales in the $1 - $2 million range jumped 29 percent compared to Q1 2011, while the $2 million and over market was up 30 percent.
Would-be buyers may be stymied, however, by a lack of inventory. Due to the laws of supply and demand, multiple offers are common; in one instance recently we saw 30 offers – leaving 29 frustrated buyers hungry for the next property.
This is having the effect of pushing prices up. Condominium median prices are on the rise in Noe Valley (up 9%), as well as in the NoPa (North of Panhandle), Hayes Valley, and Lower Pacific Heights areas (all with a 14% increase).
Looking out on the rest of 2012, we see no signs of waning demand in our area. It’s an opportune time to put a property on the market. Buyers are finally rushing in, after years on the sidelines, in an effort to grab historically low interest rates and buy before the next appreciation wave – a wave that, at long last, seems to be upon us.For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
Single Family Homes Q1 2012 Sold Comparison
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
$1-3 Million
$179,070,451
105
53
$1,535,000
$1,705,433
$3 Million+
$71,582,500
12
77
$4,822,500
$5,965,208
'11 - '12% Change
-2%
-2%
-5%
-2%
0%
'11 - '12% Change
6%
5%
-18%
2%
1%
'11 - '12% Change
31%
9%
40%
21%
20%
Under $1 Million
$224,011,553
379
70
$576,000
$591,060
JAN - MAR 2012
VOLUME
UNITS SOLD
AVERAGE DOM
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
Condominiums Q1 2012 Sold Comparison
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
$1-2 Million
$101,856,343
76
63
$1,299,500
$1,340,215
$2 Million+
$35,809,000
13
2,656,000
$2,656,000
$2,754,538
'11 - '12% Change
-6%
-9%
-7%
4%
3%
'11 - '12% Change
34%
29%
-5%
8%
4%
'11 - '12% Change
8%
30%
27%
-6%
-17%
Under $1 Million
$242,738,230
406
81
$588,500
$597,877
JAN - MAR 2012
VOLUME
UNITS SOLD
AVERAGE DOM
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
Tenancies In Common Q1 2012 Sold Comparison
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
$500K and higher
$28,615,560
38
98
$644,500
$753,041
'11 - '12% Change
36%
44%
-2%
-9%
-5%
'11 - '12% Change
-25%
-19%
4%
1%
-7%
$500K and under
$8,942,000
23
92
$399,000
$388,783
JAN - MAR 2012
VOLUME
UNITS SOLD
AVERAGE DOM
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
A Member of Real LivingPacUnion.com
Q1. 2012Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
MARIN
Q1. 2012
Pacific Union International Luxury Real Estate ReportPacific Union International Luxury Real Estate Report
A Member Of Real Living
MARIN COUNTY
2012: The Best Year in Marin Since 2005We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
Marin was off to a roaring start in the first quarter of 2012, with nearly a 9 percent increase in home sales compared to Q1 2011. Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
All indications are this white-hot activity we are experiencing in Marin will continue throughout 2012. If the trend does continue, we’d be looking at about 2,210 homes sold in 2012, which would make it our best year since 2005.
The fallout from all this activity has been fierce competition. In the first quarter, we saw 43 sales in Marin County draw multiple offers, ranging from 2 to 13! Mill Valley continues to be the epicenter of activity, with 16 multiple-offer transactions in the city alone.
Although the number of buyers currently continues to outpace inventory, we predict this may soon change. Based on the activity our stagers and photographers are experiencing, we can expect to see substantial new listings hitting the market in the next few weeks and months – good news for all those buyers shut out in the multiple-offer competition.
We’re anticipating an extremely strong 2012. This is a great time for sellers to take advantage of the limited inventory, and to acquire a new property while prices have not yet started to push upward.
For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
600
500
400
300
200
100
0‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
503
389
496 488
410
323281
223
349385
419
Marin 1st Quarter Single Family Homes Sold
Brent ThomsonSenior Vice President
Marin County415.383.1900
60 Belvedere DriveMill Valley, CA 94941
Pacific Union International Luxury Real Estate Report Q1. 2012
HOME COMPARISONA Member Of Real Living
Marin County Market StatisticsQ1 2011 vs Q1 2012
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
$1M and higher
16%
13%
0%
1%
3%
$1M and under
2%
6%
0%
-6%
-4%
Jan - Mar
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
DOM
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$170,607,486
281
135
$599,000
$607,144
$1,000,000
Jan - Mar '12
$174,013,670
299
135
$565,000
$581,896
$1,000,000
'10 - '11% Change
4%
11%
17%
-6%
-6%
0%
'11 - '12% Change
2%
6%
0%
-6%
-4%
0%
Jan - Mar '10
$163,480,945
254
115
$637,500
$643,626
$1,000,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Marin County $1 Million & UnderSingle Family Homes
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$191,084,370
105
156
$1,500,000
$1,819,851
$6,215,000
Jan - Mar '12
$222,360,585
119
156
$1,510,000
$1,868,576
$5,500,000
'10 - '11% Change
5%
8%
3%
11%
-3%
-56%
'11 - '12% Change
16%
13%
0%
1%
3%
-12%
Jan - Mar '10
$181,997,207
97
152
$1,350,000
$1,876,260
$14,000,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Marin County $1 Million & HigherSingle Family Homes
Q1. 2012
A Member Of Real Living
Pacific Union International Luxury Real Estate Report
HOME COMPARISON
2012: The Best Year in Marin Since 2005We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
Marin was off to a roaring start in the first quarter of 2012, with nearly a 9 percent increase in home sales compared to Q1 2011. Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
All indications are this white-hot activity we are experiencing in Marin will continue throughout 2012. If the trend does continue, we’d be looking at about 2,210 homes sold in 2012, which would make it our best year since 2005.
The fallout from all this activity has been fierce competition. In the first quarter, we saw 43 sales in Marin County draw multiple offers, ranging from 2 to 13! Mill Valley continues to be the epicenter of activity, with 16 multiple-offer transactions in the city alone.
Although the number of buyers currently continues to outpace inventory, we predict this may soon change. Based on the activity our stagers and photographers are experiencing, we can expect to see substantial new listings hitting the market in the next few weeks and months – good news for all those buyers shut out in the multiple-offer competition.
We’re anticipating an extremely strong 2012. This is a great time for sellers to take advantage of the limited inventory, and to acquire a new property while prices have not yet started to push upward.
For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$148,869,370
95
156
$1,450,000
$1,567,046
$2,770,000
Jan - Mar '12
$165,796,085
106
138
$1,413,000
$1,564,114
$3,000,000
'10 - '11% Change
10%
7%
10%
10%
3%
-6%
'11 - '12% Change
11%
12%
-12%
-3%
0%
8%
Jan - Mar '10
$135,615,207
89
142
$1,315,000
$1,523,766
$2,950,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Marin County $1-$3 MillionSingle Family Homes
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$42,215,000
10
160
$3,825,000
$4,221,500
$6,215,000
Jan - Mar '12
$59,564,500
14
331
$4,250,000
$4,254,607
$5,500,000
'10 - '11% Change
-9%
25%
-39%
-5%
-27%
-56%
'11 - '12% Change
41%
40%
107%
11%
1%
-12%
Jan - Mar '10
$46,382,000
8
263
$4,025,000
$5,797,750
$14,000,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Marin County $3 Million & HigherSingle Family Homes
Marin County Median & Average Home PriceQ1 2010 – Q1 2012
Q110
$984,178
$751,000
Q210
$1,083,861
$816,500
Q310
$1,022,077
$790,000
Q410
$1,022,299
$763,500
Q111
$937,817
$705,000
Q211
$1,053,418
$779,000
Q311
$1,004,425
$777,903
Q411
$962,229
$737,000
QUARTER
AVG. PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Q112
$948,140
$685,000
A Member of Real LivingPacUnion.com
Q1. 2012Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
NAPA COUNTY
Q1. 2012
Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
A Member Of Real Living
NAPA COUNTY
2012: The Best Year in Napa Since 2005We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
We saw 304 homes sell in Napa Valley in the first quarter of 2012, a slight uptick from last year at this time but more importantly, the continuation of a steady trend of increasing Q1 sales. Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
Based on this, we are looking for 1,400 homes sold in 2012 – which will make it the best year in Napa since 2005.
In the southern end of Napa County, the City of Napa and American Canyon, most properties listed under $500,000 are generating multiple offers. Is this price point seeing appreciation at long last? Since prices had fallen approximately 30% that's hard to confirm, but we feel this price point has hit bottom and is on the upswing. Volume is down 12% for properties under $500,000 compared to Q1 of 2011, primarily because the area is inventory constrained – many buyers but fewer homes available for sale.
The northern end of the valley, especially St. Helena, continues to climb in desirability. We saw a 45% increase in Q1 sales compared to this time last year, mostly in the $1,000,000 and over range – a continuation of a trend that began in the fourth quarter of 2011. Estate properties, vineyard land, and wineries are in high demand.
Single-family homes at Silverado Country Club and Resort are seeing a resurgence in sales, and the Napa Valley is once again being sought after by second-home buyers in all price points.
In summary, we have buyers in abundance but require more inventory to satisfy their needs. 2012 is shaping up to be a banner year, and we anticipate a continued robust real estate market as we head into our prime spring selling season.
For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
314
260306 296
245
178140
244 263290 304
Napa 1st Quarter Single Family Homes Sold
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Linda CarrollBranch Executive
PacUnion.com508 Main Street
Napa, CA 95474
Pacific Union International Real Estate Report Q1. 2012
HOMES SOLD COMPARISONA Member Of Real Living
Napa County $500K & UnderSingle Family Homes
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$69,387,171
232
132
$289,950
$299,083
$499,900
Jan - Mar '12
$67,871,488
230
121
$300,000
$295,093
$495,000
'10 - '11% Change
2%
5%
17%
-5%
-3.7%
0%
'11 - '12% Change
-2%
-1%
-8%
3%
-1%
-1%
Jan - Mar '10
$68,342,929
220
113
$306,000
$310,650
$500,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Napa County $500K – $1 MillionSingle Family Homes
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$25,999,285
40
221
$637,450
$649,982
$995,000
Jan - Mar '12
$31,952,553
48
188
$637,500
$665,678
$1,000,000
'10 - '11% Change
22%
29%
1%
-0.6%
-5.2%
2%
'11 - '12% Change
23%
20%
-15%
0%
2%
1%
Jan - Mar '10
$21,254,524
31
218
$641,250
$685,630
$980,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Q1. 2012
A Member Of Real Living
Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
HOME COMPARISON & CITY STATS
Napa County $1 Million & HigherSingle Family Homes
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$28,208,331
18
262
$1,388,500
$1,567,130
$2,850,000
Jan - Mar '12
$48,897,500
26
240
$1,375,000
$1,880,673
$7,000,000
'10 - '11% Change
34%
38%
18%
0%
-3%
-33%
'11 - '12% Change
73%
44%
-8%
-1%
20%
146%
Jan - Mar '10
$21,105,000
13
222
$1,390,000
$1,623,462
$4,250,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Napa City Stats 2011 vs 2012# SALESQ1 2011
187
73
6
11
6
1
5
# SALESQ1 2012
200
67
7
18
5
1
3
% CHANGEIN SALES
7%
-8%
17%
64%
-17%
0%
-40%
AVG PRICEQ1 2011
$437,158
$298,535
$498,417
$780,620
$747,500
$775,000
$611,996
AVG PRICEQ1 2012
$466,634
$284,616
$785,929
$1,256,856
$541,500
$2,060,000
$765,667
% CHANGEAVG PRICE
6.7%
-4.7%
58%
61%
-28%
N/A
25%
AVG DOMQ1 2011
169
94
142
202
298
33
138
AVG DOMQ1 2012
142
105
254
212
236
20
172
% CHANGEAVG DOM
-16%
12%
79%
5%
-21%
N/A
25%
CITY
NAPA
CALISTOGA
ST. HELENA
YOUNTVILLE
RUTHERFORD
ANGWIN
AMERICANCANYON
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
2012: The Best Year in Napa Since 2005We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
We saw 304 homes sell in Napa Valley in the first quarter of 2012, a slight uptick from last year at this time but more importantly, the continuation of a steady trend of increasing Q1 sales. Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
Based on this, we are looking for 1,400 homes sold in 2012 – which will make it the best year in Napa since 2005.
In the southern end of Napa County, the City of Napa and American Canyon, most properties listed under $500,000 are generating multiple offers. Is this price point seeing appreciation at long last? Since prices had fallen approximately 30% that's hard to confirm, but we feel this price point has hit bottom and is on the upswing. Volume is down 12% for properties under $500,000 compared to Q1 of 2011, primarily because the area is inventory constrained – many buyers but fewer homes available for sale.
The northern end of the valley, especially St. Helena, continues to climb in desirability. We saw a 45% increase in Q1 sales compared to this time last year, mostly in the $1,000,000 and over range – a continuation of a trend that began in the fourth quarter of 2011. Estate properties, vineyard land, and wineries are in high demand.
Single-family homes at Silverado Country Club and Resort are seeing a resurgence in sales, and the Napa Valley is once again being sought after by second-home buyers in all price points.
In summary, we have buyers in abundance but require more inventory to satisfy their needs. 2012 is shaping up to be a banner year, and we anticipate a continued robust real estate market as we head into our prime spring selling season.
For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
A Member of Real LivingPacUnion.com
Q1. 2012Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
SONOMA COUNTY
Q1. 2012
Pacific Union International Luxury Real Estate ReportPacific Union International Luxury Real Estate Report
A Member Of Real Living
SONOMA COUNTY
2012: The Best Q1 in Sonoma County Since 2006We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
In Sonoma County, home sales in the first quarter of 2012 were up 14 percent compared to the same time last year – in fact, it’s been the best Q1 in our area since 2006. Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
If the trend continues, we anticipate robust sales in 2012 – unless we are limited by a lack of inventory, which has been a recurring issue in the past months. Our purchase contracts are exceeding new listings, and multiple offers have been the rule rather than the exception.
In other areas of note, we are seeing a marked increase in purchase contracts in price ranges that have been very slow before Q1 of this year. This is true of almost every price point in our area, with two price ranges – $600,000-$699,999 and over $4 million – seeing double-digit percentage increases in the number of homes under contract.
We are also seeing a significant increase in purchase contracts ratified on short-sale properties. This is a trend that we expect to continue as banks learn that short sales hedge against the further losses and liabilities of foreclosures.
We predict a very strong 2012 for Sonoma County. Favorable interest rates, job and economic growth, high demand from buyers, and sellers who have been trying to wait out the market – and are now ready to move – all bode well for continued growth.
If you’re a potential seller, act soon to take advantage of the high demand. If you’re a buyer, persevere! Your options may be limited by low inventory, but the home you purchase will likely look like a bargain as prices begin to rise.
For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
1,6001,4001,2001,000
800600400200
0‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
1,2271,086
1,191 1,2201,023
752615
1,025916 975
1,116
Sonoma County 1st Quarter Single Family Homes Sold
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Rick LawsSenior Vice President
PacUnion.com3333 Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210
Santa Rosa, CA
Pacific Union International Luxury Real Estate Report Q1. 2012
MARKET ACTIVITY COMPARISONA Member Of Real Living
Source: BAREIS, April 4, 2012
Supply/Demand January ‘12 – March ’12 for Sonoma County
For Sale For Sale SoldSold
+34.9%
280027002600250024002300220021002000180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700600500400300200100
0
#U
nits
Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 July 11 Sep 11Aug 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12
SUPPLY & DEMANDMARCH 2011 VS MARCH 2012
Supply (For Sale) is down 25%over March of 2011
Demand (Sold) is up 10.4%
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012Supply (For Sale) is down 8.5%
Sales(Sold) are up 34.9%
-8.5%
Median Price January ‘12 – March ’12 for Sonoma County
Sold Sold
-.08%
360340320300280260240220200180160140120100
80604020
0
$ In
Th
ou
san
ds
Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 July 11 Sep 11Aug 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12
PRICEMEDIAN PRICE FOR SONOMA COUNTYSINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN MARCH OF
2012 WAS $320,000, UP 4.1% OVERMARCH OF 2011, AND DOWN FOR THE
FIRST QUARTER LESS THAN 1%
Q1. 2012
A Member Of Real Living
Pacific Union International Luxury Real Estate Report
MARKET ACTIVITY COMPARISON
2012: The Best Q1 in Sonoma County Since 2006We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
In Sonoma County, home sales in the first quarter of 2012 were up 14 percent compared to the same time last year – in fact, it’s been the best Q1 in our area since 2006. Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
If the trend continues, we anticipate robust sales in 2012 – unless we are limited by a lack of inventory, which has been a recurring issue in the past months. Our purchase contracts are exceeding new listings, and multiple offers have been the rule rather than the exception.
In other areas of note, we are seeing a marked increase in purchase contracts in price ranges that have been very slow before Q1 of this year. This is true of almost every price point in our area, with two price ranges – $600,000-$699,999 and over $4 million – seeing double-digit percentage increases in the number of homes under contract.
We are also seeing a significant increase in purchase contracts ratified on short-sale properties. This is a trend that we expect to continue as banks learn that short sales hedge against the further losses and liabilities of foreclosures.
We predict a very strong 2012 for Sonoma County. Favorable interest rates, job and economic growth, high demand from buyers, and sellers who have been trying to wait out the market – and are now ready to move – all bode well for continued growth.
If you’re a potential seller, act soon to take advantage of the high demand. If you’re a buyer, persevere! Your options may be limited by low inventory, but the home you purchase will likely look like a bargain as prices begin to rise.
For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
Source: BAREIS, April 4, 2012
Months Supply of Inventory 2011 vs 2010 for Sonoma County
MSI-UC MSI-UC
-43.0%
5.255.004.754.504.254.003.753.503.253.002.752.502.252.001.751.501.251.000.750.500.250.00
Mo
nth
s
Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 July 11 Sep 11Aug 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12
MONTHS SUPPLY OFINVENTORY
IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2012MSI IS DOWN 43% TO 1.6 MONTHS OF
SUPPLY... 4 TO 6 MONTHS ISCONSIDERED A BALANCED MARKET
Source: BAREIS, April 4, 2012
Supply/Demand #Units January ‘12 – March ’12 for Sonoma County
UC SOLDUCSold
-34.9%+34.4%
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
#U
nits
Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 July 11 Sep 11Aug 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12
DEMANDTHE LEADING INDICATOR OF DEMAND
IS THE NUMBER OF PROPERTIES WITHACCEPTED PURCHASE AGREEMENTS
(UNDER CONTRACT)
THE LAGGING INDICATOR WILL BETHE NUMBER OF HOMES CLOSING ESCROW.
(SOLD)
A Member of Real LivingPacUnion.com
Q1. 2012Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
SONOMA VALLEY
Q1. 2012
Pacific Union International Luxury Real Estate ReportPacific Union International Luxury Real Estate Report
A Member Of Real Living
SONOMA VALLEY
2012: The Best Year in the Sonoma Valley Since 2005We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
Activity in the Sonoma Valley has gotten off to a hurried start in 2012, with a 14 percent increase in home sales in the first quarter of 2012, compared to Q1 2011. Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
If the trend continues, we’d be looking at about 505 homes sold in 2012, which makes it the best year since 2005.
However, as with many other areas, our biggest issue is low inventory in all price ranges. In particular, we are seeing multiple offers on most properties in the under-$500,000 price range and on many properties over $1M.
Properties priced in the first “move up” range (between $500,000 and $1,000,000) seem to be the biggest challenge. This makes sense: Many sellers selling in the under $500,000 range are not realizing much (if any) equity because this price range holds the greatest number of short sales and foreclosures.
The over-$1M market is as brisk as we have seen in a long time. One property we listed at $1,300,000 saw four offers in its first week on the market.
One really exciting bit of news on the Sonoma Valley market is for investors. Rents have increased, interest rates are incredibly low, and financing is very affordable. Those factors combine to create an outstanding opportunity to purchase a home as a long- or even short-term rental (like a vacation or second home). This is the first time we’ve seen rental properties ‘pencil out’ in over 10 years – so it’s a great time to invest.
We anticipate that 2012 will be the best in years for single-family-home sales, as long as inventory can keep up with demand. Buyers appear to be ready!
For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
102
82
117 112
8568
6075 79 85
97
Sonoma Valley 1st Quarter Single Family Homes Sold
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
Jill SilvasBranch Executive
PacUnion.com640 Broadway StreetSonoma, CA 95476
Pacific Union International Luxury Real Estate Report Q1. 2012
HOMES SOLD COMPARISONA Member Of Real Living
Sonoma Valley $1 Million And UnderSingle Family Homes
Source: BAREIS, March 31, 2012
2012
$39,619,649
87
120
$395,000
$455,398
$1,000,000
'11 - '12% Change
18%
16%
0%
1%
2%
4%
2011
$33,609,215
75
120
$390,000
$448,123
$965,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Sonoma Valley $1 Million And HigherSingle Family Homes
Source: BAREIS, March 31, 2012
2012
$36,365,100
12
281
$2,050,000
$3,030,425
$8,000,000
'11 - '12% Change
91%
20%
55%
48%
59%
100%
2011
$19,089,000
10
181
$1,387,500
$1,908,900
$3,995,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Q1. 2012
A Member Of Real Living
Pacific Union International Luxury Real Estate Report
HOME COMPARISON & CITY STATS
2012: The Best Year in the Sonoma Valley Since 2005We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
Activity in the Sonoma Valley has gotten off to a hurried start in 2012, with a 14 percent increase in home sales in the first quarter of 2012, compared to Q1 2011. Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
If the trend continues, we’d be looking at about 505 homes sold in 2012, which makes it the best year since 2005.
However, as with many other areas, our biggest issue is low inventory in all price ranges. In particular, we are seeing multiple offers on most properties in the under-$500,000 price range and on many properties over $1M.
Properties priced in the first “move up” range (between $500,000 and $1,000,000) seem to be the biggest challenge. This makes sense: Many sellers selling in the under $500,000 range are not realizing much (if any) equity because this price range holds the greatest number of short sales and foreclosures.
The over-$1M market is as brisk as we have seen in a long time. One property we listed at $1,300,000 saw four offers in its first week on the market.
One really exciting bit of news on the Sonoma Valley market is for investors. Rents have increased, interest rates are incredibly low, and financing is very affordable. Those factors combine to create an outstanding opportunity to purchase a home as a long- or even short-term rental (like a vacation or second home). This is the first time we’ve seen rental properties ‘pencil out’ in over 10 years – so it’s a great time to invest.
We anticipate that 2012 will be the best in years for single-family-home sales, as long as inventory can keep up with demand. Buyers appear to be ready!
For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
YTD Sonoma County Cities Stats 2011 vs 2012Single Family Homes
# SALES2011
80
3
2
113
69
417
42
75
42
# SALES2012
87
6
5
162
65
467
39
76
42
% CHANGEIN SALES
9%
100%
150%
43%
-6%
12%
-7%
1%
0%
AVG PRICE2011
$615,198
$812,500
$522,450
$431,404
$293,217
$359,418
$550,105
$350,304
$553,184
AVG PRICE2012
$617,667
$1,586,342
$1,431,200
$387,688
$289,986
$341,835
$733,349
$329,170
$441,972
% CHANGEAVG PRICE
0%
95%
173.9%
-10%
-1%
-5%
33%
-6%
-20%
AVG DOM2011
130
80
76
151
98
126
143
142
132
AVG DOM2012
135
130
237
147
122
128
190
148
129
% CHANGEAVG DOM
-4%
63%
212%
-3%
24%
2%
33%
4%
-2%
CITY
SONOMA
GLEN ELLEN
KENWOOD
PETALUMA
ROHNERT PARK
SANTA ROSA
HEALDSBURG
WINDSOR
SEBASTOPOL
Source: BAREIS, March 31, 2012
Sonoma County All Price Ranges
Source: BAREIS, March 31, 2012
2012
$455,920,210
1,122
138
$318,750
$406,346
$8,400,000
'11 - '12% Change
15%
15%
1%
0%
0%
110%
2011
$397,238,593
978
136
$320,000
$406,174
$3,995,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
A Member of Real LivingPacUnion.com
Q1. 2012Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
EAST BAY
2012: The Best Year in the East Bay Since 2006We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
Here’s a look at how home sales in the East Bay have fared over the past 10 years.
Our projections indicate we'll likely see around 2,290 home sales in 2012 which will make it our best year since 2006. While our Q1 results showed only a modest increase of 1.2% above the same time period last year, we attribute this not to a sluggish market but to a lack of listing inventory. There is no shortage of buyers in our marketplace, but the new inventory is not keeping up with the demand. More than two-thirds of our first quarter sales involved multiple offers, and there have been weeks where the number of homes going into contract has exceeded the number of new listings. The number of pending sales in March 2012 was up more than 50 percent over March 2010 and 2011 and there is only a one-month supply of listing inventory. Thus, in many neighborhoods, ours is now a sellers’ market, with demand far outstripping supply and properties selling swiftly, frequently for over the list price. A number of factors, however, suggest that an increase in new inventory is not far off. Prices are stabilizing, and this, coupled with pent-up buyers demand and increasing consumer confidence as the economy rebounds, should result in an increase in the number of new properties coming onto the market. Indeed, given the current momentum, once the sellers step in to meet the buyer demand this, could be the best year in our marketplace since 2006. If you are a seller who has been watching the market for a good time to make a move, now is that time. For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please call any time.
Q1. 2012
A Member Of Real Living
EAST BAYPacific Union International Real Estate Report
600
500
400
300
200
100
0‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
464 448 458 455 455377
295 266311
417 422
East Bay* 1st Quarter Single Family Homes Sold
Source: EBRD *Defined by Oakland zip codes: 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618,94619, 94705, Piedmont, Berkeley, Albany, Kensington and El Cerrito.
Pam HoffmanSVP, Branch Executive
PacUnion.com1900 Mountain Boulevard
Oakland, CA 94611
Pacific Union International Real Estate Report Q1. 2012
HOMES SOLD COMPARISONA Member Of Real Living
Oakland Area* All Prices - Single Family Homes
Source: EBRD *Defined by Oakland zip codes: 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, 94705
Jan - Mar '11
$119,596,370
231
45
$500,000
$517,733
$1,450,000
Jan - Mar '12
$133,186,590
249
47
$470,000
$534,885
$3,000,000
'10 - '11% Change
12%
27%
13%
-8%
-12%
-55%
'11 - '12% Change
11%
8%
4%
-6%
3%
107%
Jan - Mar '10
$106,957,475
182
40
$542,750
$587,678
$3,200,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Piedmont All Prices - Single Family Homes
Source: EBRD
Jan - Mar '11
$21,303,000
16
42
$1,232,500
$1,331,437
$2,300,000
Jan - Mar '12
$24,234,337
19
26
$1,210,000
$1,275,491
$2,760,000
'10 - '11% Change
77%
60%
68%
-3%
10%
38%
'11 - '12% Change
14%
19%
-38%
-2%
-4%
20%
Jan - Mar '10
$12,052,256
10
25
$1,265,500
$1,205,225
$1,670,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Berkeley All Prices - Single Family Homes
Source: EBRD
Jan - Mar '11
$63,925,790
106
50
$560,000
$603,073
$2,375,000
Jan - Mar '12
$54,034,757
90
32
$557,500
$600,386
$1,687,500
'10 - '11% Change
38%
51%
47%
-8%
-9%
33%
'11 - '12% Change
-15%
-15%
-36%
0%
0%
-29%
Jan - Mar '10
$46,336,213
70
34
$609,787
$661,945
$1,780,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
2012: The Best Year in the East Bay Since 2006We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
Here’s a look at how home sales in the East Bay have fared over the past 10 years.
Our projections indicate we'll likely see around 2,290 home sales in 2012 which will make it our best year since 2006. While our Q1 results showed only a modest increase of 1.2% above the same time period last year, we attribute this not to a sluggish market but to a lack of listing inventory. There is no shortage of buyers in our marketplace, but the new inventory is not keeping up with the demand. More than two-thirds of our first quarter sales involved multiple offers, and there have been weeks where the number of homes going into contract has exceeded the number of new listings. The number of pending sales in March 2012 was up more than 50 percent over March 2010 and 2011 and there is only a one-month supply of listing inventory. Thus, in many neighborhoods, ours is now a sellers’ market, with demand far outstripping supply and properties selling swiftly, frequently for over the list price. A number of factors, however, suggest that an increase in new inventory is not far off. Prices are stabilizing, and this, coupled with pent-up buyers demand and increasing consumer confidence as the economy rebounds, should result in an increase in the number of new properties coming onto the market. Indeed, given the current momentum, once the sellers step in to meet the buyer demand this, could be the best year in our marketplace since 2006. If you are a seller who has been watching the market for a good time to make a move, now is that time. For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please call any time.
Q1. 2012
A Member Of Real Living
Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
HOMES SOLD COMPARISON
Albany All Prices - Single Family Homes
Source: EBRD
Jan - Mar '11
$6,988,704
13
28
$475,999
$537,592
$828,500
Jan - Mar '12
$5,583,165
11
51
$415,000
$507,560
$1,150,000
'10 - '11% Change
0%
0%
-36%
-7%
0%
17%
'11 - '12% Change
-20%
-15%
82%
-13%
-6%
39%
Jan - Mar '10
$7,021,600
13
44
$510,000
$540,123
$711,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Kensington All Prices - Single Family Homes
Source: EBRD
Jan - Mar '11
$7,534,000
12
38
$610,000
$627,833
$880,000
Jan - Mar '12
$6,273,254
9
63
$675,000
$697,028
$1,300,000
'10 - '11% Change
-2%
33%
100%
-19%
-27%
-42%
'11 - '12% Change
-17%
-25%
66%
11%
11%
48%
Jan - Mar '10
$7,707,250
9
19
$749,000
$856,361
$1,510,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
El Cerrito All Prices - Single Family Homes
Source: EBRD
Jan - Mar '11
$19,795,800
39
47
$489,000
$507,584
$820,000
Jan - Mar '12
$18,746,200
44
41
$430,000
$426,050
$950,000
'10 - '11% Change
28%
44%
62%
-11%
-11%
-26%
'11 - '12% Change
-5%
13%
-13%
-12%
-16%
16%
Jan - Mar '10
$15,465,500
27
29
$550,000
$572,796
$1,110,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
A Member of Real LivingPacUnion.com
Q1. 2012Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
CONTRA COSTA
A Member Of Real Living
CONTRA COSTA COUNTYPacific Union International Real Estate Report
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
1,269
1,023 1,045900
824 892
551647
750853 856
Contra Costa 1st Quarter Single Family Homes Sold
Source: BAREIS, as of March 31, 2012
2012: The Best Year in Contra Costa Since 2005We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
In Contra Costa County, we saw a slight .4% increase in home sales in the first quarter of 2012, compared to Q1 2011. That makes it the best Q1 in our area since we last saw this sort of activity in 2007. Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
With these trends, we expect to see around 6,400 sales in 2012 – our best year overall since 2005. We are still seeing constrained inventory (more buyers than sellers) in the 24/680 corridor, and we expect the second quarter will continue to show pent-up demand from buyers as well as multiple offers on well -priced homes.
Buyers still are cautious about overpaying, however, so they won’t pay an inflated list price just to avoid a multiple-offer situation – at least, not yet.
Lamorinda continues to be more competitive than the other areas we cover, due to less turnover and fewer homes to sell given the smaller population. That won’t change soon; prospective buyers are very loyal to the area and are choosing to focus here rather than looking in Alamo or Danville.
We predict Blackhawk will continue to sell well, since for the first time those prices are in line with homes for sale outside the gated community. And buyers with cash in hand love the area.
The one area that will likely show limited growth is the “move-up” market, where a buyer might go from an $800K home to a $1.3M home. This is mostly due to the lack of equity in those homes now, as well as the new conforming limits on mortgages.
In short, we are looking ahead to a great 2012! For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
Ellen AndersonSenior Vice President, Contra Costa County
PacUnion.com8 Camino Encinas, Suite 100
Orinda, CA 94563
Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
HOMES SOLD COMPARISONA Member Of Real Living
Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, San Ramon$1 Million And Under - SFH
Source: EBRD, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$150,350,868
213
50
$705,000
$705,872
$1,000,000
Jan - Mar '12
$147,039,995
211
49
$729,000
$696,872
$1,000,000
'10 - '11% Change
6%
9%
11%
-6%
-2%
0%
'11 - '12% Change
-2%
-1%
-2%
3%
-1%
0%
Jan - Mar '10
$141,389,541
196
45
$750,000
$721,375
$1,000,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Concord, Martinez, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek$1 Million And Under - SFH
Source: EBRD, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$178,427,304
472
55
$334,000
$378,023
$969,000
Jan - Mar '12
$174,866,011
469
47
$325,000
$372,848
$992,000
'10 - '11% Change
6%
16%
41%
-11%
-8%
-3%
'11 - '12% Change
-2%
-1%
-15%
-3%
-1%
2%
Jan - Mar '10
$168,053,147
407
39
$375,000
$412,906
$999,900
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda$1 Million And Under - SFH
Source: EBRD, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$50,617,566
70
64
$729,000
$723,108
$997,000
Jan - Mar '12
$40,198,830
56
59
$749,500
$717,836
$950,000
'10 - '11% Change
33%
43%
8%
-8%
-7%
0%
'11 - '12% Change
-21%
-20%
-8%
3%
-1%
-5%
Jan - Mar '10
$38,115,500
49
59
$796,000
$777,867
$1,000,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
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Pacific Union International Real Estate Report
HOMES SOLD COMPARISON
Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, San Ramon$1 Million And Higher - SFH
Source: EBRD, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$87,385,054
68
74
$1,175,000
$1,285,074
$2,800,000
Jan - Mar '12
$87,051,222
64
88
$1,252,000
$1,360,175
$3,125,000
'10 - '11% Change
-3%
-6%
-15%
-2%
2%
33%
'11 - '12% Change
0%
-6%
19%
7%
6%
12%
Jan - Mar '10
$90,318,267
72
87
$1,193,000
$1,254,420
$2,100,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Concord, Martinez, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek$1 Million And Higher - SFH
Source: EBRD, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$6,782,000
5
67
$1,315,000
$1,356,400
$1,550,000
Jan - Mar '12
$5,304,000
4
144
$1,289,500
$1,326,000
$1,515,000
'10 - '11% Change
2%
0%
-11%
5%
2%
-5%
'11 - '12% Change
-22%
-20%
115%
-2%
-2%
-2%
Jan - Mar '10
$6,636,000
5
75
$1,251,000
$1,327,200
$1,630,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda$1 Million And Higher - SFH
Source: EBRD, as of March 31, 2012
Jan - Mar '11
$36,456,800
27
77
$1,250,000
$1,350,251
$2,500,000
Jan - Mar '12
$39,790,400
28
50
$1,292,500
$1,421,085
$2,950,000
'10 - '11% Change
-1%
8%
8%
0%
-9%
-15%
'11 - '12% Change
9%
4%
-35%
3%
5%
18%
Jan - Mar '10
$36,996,950
25
71
$1,250,000
$1,479,878
$2,950,000
TIME PERIOD
VOLUME
HOMES SOLD
AVG. DAYS ON MKT
MEDIAN PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE
MAX PRICE SOLD
2012: The Best Year in Contra Costa Since 2005We have been pleasantly surprised by the pace of the real estate market as we move into the second quarter of 2012 – and we’re projecting even better things to come for the rest of the year.
Buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in most of the Bay Area. Aided by job growth, improving economic indicators, and historically low interest rates, the market is changing with a velocity we haven’t seen since its collapse in September 2008.
In Contra Costa County, we saw a slight .4% increase in home sales in the first quarter of 2012, compared to Q1 2011. That makes it the best Q1 in our area since we last saw this sort of activity in 2007. Here’s a look at our 10-year numbers.
With these trends, we expect to see around 6,400 sales in 2012 – our best year overall since 2005. We are still seeing constrained inventory (more buyers than sellers) in the 24/680 corridor, and we expect the second quarter will continue to show pent-up demand from buyers as well as multiple offers on well -priced homes.
Buyers still are cautious about overpaying, however, so they won’t pay an inflated list price just to avoid a multiple-offer situation – at least, not yet.
Lamorinda continues to be more competitive than the other areas we cover, due to less turnover and fewer homes to sell given the smaller population. That won’t change soon; prospective buyers are very loyal to the area and are choosing to focus here rather than looking in Alamo or Danville.
We predict Blackhawk will continue to sell well, since for the first time those prices are in line with homes for sale outside the gated community. And buyers with cash in hand love the area.
The one area that will likely show limited growth is the “move-up” market, where a buyer might go from an $800K home to a $1.3M home. This is mostly due to the lack of equity in those homes now, as well as the new conforming limits on mortgages.
In short, we are looking ahead to a great 2012! For a specific analysis of your home and personal objectives, please feel free to call any time.
PacUnion.com/Bay-Area-Mortgage-solutions
Mortgage Services Professionals Mortgage Services Professionals is a joint venture of Pacific Union International and Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. As a responsible mortgage lender, we work closely with customers to help them explore and explain options, helping them find home financing that helps meet individual budgets and homeownership goals.
Call us today for a complimentary consultation 877-369-3332
Mortgage Rates Remain Near Historic Lows
3.954% 4.019% APR
Payment example: $200,000 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment.
The average origination fee for a loan of this size would have been $1,560.00, or .78 points. The APR quoted above does not include other closing costs. One point is one percent of the loan amount.
This loan would have had 360 scheduled monthly principal and interest payments of $949.53.
This monthly payment amount does not include property tax or homeowner’s insurance, which must be paid in addition to your loan’s principal and interest. Your actual payment may be higher. The rate, points, APR, and payment amount are based on the most recent monthly average from Freddie Mac’s survey. These specific loan terms may not have been offered by Wells Fargo Home Mortgage during that month.
MOST RECENT MONTHLY AVERAGE: MARCH 2012
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
18%
15%
12%
9%
6%
3%
0%
RATES ON 30-YEAR FIXED-RATE MORTGAGES ON CONVENTIONAL, CONFORMING LOANS
Average, 1972-2011: 8.815
MOST RECENT MONTHMARCH 2012: 3.954%
SOURCE: Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Rate shown is the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage on a prime conventional, conforming loan with an LTV of no more than 80%. These are historical figures, and the most recent rate shown doesn’t necessarily reflect a rate that is currently available. PMMS data is provided “as is”, with no warranties of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to warranties of accuracy or implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Use of the data is at the user’s sole risk.
PacUnion.com/Bay-Area-Mortgage-solutions
Your goals deserve our attention.With our wide range of programs and dedication to personal service, you can feel confident that we’ll provide you with the information you need to help you choose the home financing to fit your current needs and future goals.
Put your goals into action, call your Mortgage Services Professionals mortgage consultant today.
All first mortgage products are provided by Mortgage Services Professionals, LLC. Mortgage Services Professionals, LLC may not be available in your area. Wells Fargo Home Mortgage is a division of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.
Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act.
©2012 Mortgage Services Professionals, LLC. All Rights Reserved. NMLSR ID 459292 #947879 04/12-07/12
Meet Our TeamServing S A N F R A N C I S C ODennis Kowalski | NMLSR ID 282816 | [email protected] | 415.259.8618Tina Jennings | NMLSR ID 653876 | [email protected] | 415.505.4891Victoria Johnston | NMLSR ID 776711 | [email protected] | 415.314.5664
Serving W I N E C O U N T R YReina Perkins | NMLSR ID 856071 | [email protected] | 707.318.3774Sheila O’Neill | NMLSR ID 371029 | [email protected] | 707.501.8856
Serving M A R I N C O U N T YAdam Wise | NMLSR ID 653875 | [email protected] | 415.297.9473David Grose | NMLSR ID 737283 | [email protected] | 415.359.4025Stephanie Heaton | NMLSR ID 849134 | [email protected] | 415.813.4526
Serving E A S T B AYChristopher Perez | NMLSR ID 893123 | [email protected] | 925.785.2006 Jim Stewart | NMLSR ID 457860 | [email protected] | 510.338.1333Micaelanne Hogarty | NMLSR ID 318325 | [email protected] | 510.338.1336Vince Wirthman | NMLSR ID 313777 | [email protected] | 510.504.5683
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