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1 Puerto Rican Post-Maria Relocation by States In the decades prior to Hurricane Maria, in the post-eco- nomic crisis exodus also known as the Millennial Migra- tion, Florida became the preferred destination of Puerto Rican migrants. According to the most recent data avail- able from the U.S. Census Bureau, migration from Puerto Rico to Florida increased significantly from less than half a million at the turn of the new millennium to 1,067,747 by 2016 and after the post Hurricane Maria exodus, the state is expected to have the largest share of Puerto Ri- cans in the U.S. mainland. Overall, the findings from the FEMA data show that Puer- to Ricans have dispersed throughout the United States to a large extent following existing population nodes, show- ing recent migration flows to the Northeast and to the U.S. south in particular. DATA AND METHODS In this study we use school enrollment and FEMA change- of-addresses data as indicators of the relocation of Puer- to Rican migrants to the U.S. mainland. We assume that families that enroll their children in a state’s school sys- tem are more likely to stay over a longer period of time or to relocate permanently than families that have a shorter time horizon in mind and that chose not to enroll their children in schools. Data from FEMA include self-report- ed data on any survivor’s current mailing address who first registered claims with FEMA in 2017 as a result of Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Irma--it is important to note that addresses are often change and not notified to FEMA. Furthermore, data is divided by the number of households and the number of total household members within a household by county. The data presented here is a snapshot at a point of time. The total number of incom- ing Puerto Rican migrants and settlement, as projected from FEMA and school enrollment data, changes contin- uously due to individuals and families moving to other states, moving back to Puerto Rico, or moving to other school districts or counties within the same states. This research brief presents findings of the relocation of Puerto Ricans to the U.S. mainland as a result of aftermath of - Hurricane Maria. Data from FEMA and school enrollment data from the selected state’s Department of Education were used to analyze Puerto Rican relocation patterns in the U.S. main- land. Prior estimates of the magnitude of this exodus have been based on movement of passengers or statistical projec- tions based on recent migration trends from Puerto Rico to the United States. In this report, we use post-Hurricane Maria school enrollment data from Florida, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Illinois school districts and FEMA to assess the population flows and relo- cation from Puerto Rico to the U.S. mainland. RESEARCH BRIEF Issued March 2018 By: Jennifer Hinojosa, Nashia Román, and Edwin Meléndez Centro RB2018-03

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Page 1: Puerto Rican Post-Maria Relocation by States

1

Puerto Rican Post-Maria Relocation by States

In the decades prior to Hurricane Maria, in the post-eco-nomic crisis exodus also known as the Millennial Migra-tion, Florida became the preferred destination of Puerto Rican migrants. According to the most recent data avail-able from the U.S. Census Bureau, migration from Puerto Rico to Florida increased significantly from less than half a million at the turn of the new millennium to 1,067,747 by 2016 and after the post Hurricane Maria exodus, the state is expected to have the largest share of Puerto Ri-cans in the U.S. mainland.

Overall, the findings from the FEMA data show that Puer-to Ricans have dispersed throughout the United States to a large extent following existing population nodes, show-ing recent migration flows to the Northeast and to the U.S. south in particular.

DATA AND METHODS

In this study we use school enrollment and FEMA change- of-addresses data as indicators of the relocation of Puer-

to Rican migrants to the U.S. mainland. We assume that families that enroll their children in a state’s school sys-tem are more likely to stay over a longer period of time or to relocate permanently than families that have a shorter time horizon in mind and that chose not to enroll their children in schools. Data from FEMA include self-report-ed data on any survivor’s current mailing address who first registered claims with FEMA in 2017 as a result of Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Irma--it is important to note that addresses are often change and not notified to FEMA. Furthermore, data is divided by the number of households and the number of total household members within a household by county. The data presented here is a snapshot at a point of time. The total number of incom-ing Puerto Rican migrants and settlement, as projected from FEMA and school enrollment data, changes contin-uously due to individuals and families moving to other states, moving back to Puerto Rico, or moving to other school districts or counties within the same states.

This research brief presents findings of the relocation of Puerto Ricans to the U.S. mainland as a result of aftermath of-Hurricane Maria. Data from FEMA and school enrollment data from the selected state’s Department of Education were used to analyze Puerto Rican relocation patterns in the U.S. main-land. Prior estimates of the magnitude of this exodus have been based on movement of passengers or statistical projec-tions based on recent migration trends from Puerto Rico to the United States. In this report, we use post-Hurricane Maria school enrollment data from Florida, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Illinois school districts and FEMA to assess the population flows and relo-cation from Puerto Rico to the U.S. mainland.

RESEARCH BRIEF Issued March 2018By: Jennifer Hinojosa, Nashia Román, and Edwin Meléndez Centro RB2018-03

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SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ESTIMATES

The school enrollment data indicates that just five months after the Hurricane Maria catastrophe, the exo-dus of Puerto Ricans to the states with the largest con-centrations of recent emigrants--Florida, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, New Jersey and Illinois--reached the lower bound predication of the prior study for school-age children. The following estimates below shows school enrollment data collected between December 1st and February 22th, 2017 by school dis-tricts. According to our survey of seven school districts and data provided by the Governor’s office, 11,554 Puer-to Rican students enrolled in Florida’s school districts, 2,556 in Massachusetts, 2,874 in Pennsylvania, 2,218 in New York, 1,827 in Connecticut, 886 in New Jersey, and 607 in Illinois.

Overall, student enrollment in all school districts sur-veyed for this study exceeded the lower bound esti-mates, however, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New York surpassed the predicted estimates (see table 1). In the case of Massachusetts and Connecticut, school en-rollment was near the upper bound estimates relative to the other states in this study. On the other hand, Florida, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey school enrollment has yet to pass the predicted estimates of incoming school age children (see table 1).

Florida

According to Florida’s Department of Education a total of 11,554 students from Puerto Rico enrolled in Flori-da’s public-school districts, this is a 12% increase since December 5, 2017, when a total of 10,324 students were

Puerto Rican Children Population

(2016)

Average of School-Age

Children Migrants

(2013-2016)

Lower Bound

Upper Bound

School Enrollment

Data

All States 1,220,906 13,050 22,710 42,771 n/a

Selected States Total 972,578 10,732 - - 22,247

Florida 227,430 4,955 9,666 15,408 11,554Pennsylvania 114,620 1,652 880 9,840 2,599

Texas 44,204 1,227 866 5,988 n/a

New York 215,141 756 1,102 3,087 2,218

Massachusetts 80,399 546 544 2,580 2,556

New Jersey 102,021 548 882 1,833 886

Connecticut 68,596 359 0 1,860 1,827

Ohio 32,262 345 360 1,533 n/a

California 41,994 344 0 3,093 n/a

Illinois 45,911 - - - 607

Table 1. School Enrollment of Post-Maria School Age Children and Predicted Estimates by Selected States

Source: American Community Suvey, various years and survey of selected Department of Education.Note: Lower bound estimates are double the lowest number of migrants registered during the prior three years. Upper bound estimates are three times the highest number of migrants registered during the prior three years. Since the ACS estimates are based on random sampling of the population, the smaller the numbers reported in this table the larger the margin of error for the estimates.

Page 3: Puerto Rican Post-Maria Relocation by States

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enrolled. Relative to other states surveyed for this report, Florida’s school districts were the most impacted of in-coming school age children from Puerto Rico as a result of the exodus after Hurricane Maria. According to our pri-or estimates reported in October 2017, the total number of school age Puerto Rican children in Florida (11,554), surpassed the predicted lower bound estimates, and is currently between our lower (9,666) and upper bound (15,408) predicted estimates (Meléndez and Hinojosa, 2017). To date, this figure (11,554) represents an in-crease of 9% over the school enrollment level in 2015 of Puerto Rican students statewide (see table 2).

Between December 5th and February 6th, 2018, Florida’s school districts continue to show an influx of incoming students from Puerto Rico, especially in school districts in Central and Southeast regions (see figure 1). As of February 6th, 2018, at least 60% of Puerto Rican school age children from Puerto Rico who relocated to Central Florida alone, and are enrolled primarily in the follow-ing counties: 22% in Orange County school districts, 19 percent in Osceola, 8% in Hillsborough, and 7% in Polk

County. Compared to school enrollment data reported in December 5, 2017, Central Florida showed an increase from 53% to 60%, a 7-percentage point increase. Osce-ola County school districts (-341), Lee (-192), and Hills-borough (-88) were among the counties to show student enrollment decline since December. On the other hand, Orange County school districts showed the highest in-crease from 2,590 students in December to 3,285 stu-dents in February, an increase of 700 students. In addi-tion to Orange County school districts located in central Florida, Lake (293) Polk (154), Seminole (123), and Volu-sia (104), showed increase of one hundred students or more during the three-month period. School districts lo-cated in the south region of the state also showed a slight increase from 19% from December 2017 to 20 percent in February 2018, an addition of 337 students. In absolute terms, Miami-Dade County school districts showed the largest increase of student enrollment from 788 to 911 students from Puerto Rico, a difference of 123 students. Broward County school districts also showed an increase of 123 students (from 642 to 735 students).

K-12 Puerto Rican Student Enrollment

(2015)

School Enrollment as of

12/5/2018

School Enrollment as of

2/6/2018

% Increase Over School Enrollment

Level in 2015

Statewide Total 210,004 10,324 11,554 6%

Selected Counties Total 146,947 8,643 9,828 -

Orange 36,143 2,590 3,285 9%

Osceola 19,991 1,960 1,619 8%

Miami-Dade 19,010 788 911 5%

Polk 10,467 700 854 8%Hillsborough 23,661 854 766 3%

Broward 15,940 642 735 5%

Seminole 8,146 362 466 6%

Florida Virtual School NA 331 423 NAPalm Beach 9,824 351 411 4%Lake 3,765 65 358 10%

Table 2. Puerto Rican Student Enrollment in Florida School Districts

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates and Florida Department of Education

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Figure 1. Post-Hurricane Maria Puerto Rican Student Enrollment (K-12) in Florida School Districts

Source: Florida Deparment of Education

Massachusetts

As of February 18th, 2018, a total of 2,556 students dis-placed by Hurricane Maria enrolled in Massachusetts school districts, an increase from 2,298 students since January 22, 2018, an 11% change. To date, this figure represents an increase of 3% over the school enrollment level in 2015. As shown in table 1, our prior estimates reported in October 2017, the total number of school age Puerto Rican children in Massachusetts (2,556), is almost as high as the predicted upper bound (2,580) es-timate (Meléndez and Hinojosa, 2017).

Between January 2017 and February 2018, in terms of absolute change, Worcester County school districts showed an increase of 68 students from Puerto Rico (from 477 to 545 students) followed by 51 in Hampden (from 815 to 866 students), 49 in Essex County (from 201 to 250 students), and 17 students in Suffolk. On the other hand, a few school districts showed no change or a slight decline of student enrollment.

Source: Florida Department of Education

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Table 3. Puerto Rican Student Enrollment in Massachusetts School Districts

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates and Massachusetts Department of Education

K-12 Puerto Rican Student Enrollment

(2015)

School Enrollment as of

1/22/2018

School Enrollment as of

2/18/2018

% Increase Over School Enrollment

Level in 2015Statewide Total 77,325 2,298 2,556 3%Selected Counties Total 76,270 2,158 2,340 -Hampden 24,411 815 866 4%Worcester 12,359 477 545 4%Bristol 6,437 304 304 5%Essex 10,237 201 250 2%Suffolk 9,206 161 178 2%Middlesex 7,939 115 109 1%Plymouth 2,149 31 35 2%Norfolk 2,194 21 25 1%Hampshire 932 20 17 2%Franklin 406 13 11 3%

Figure 2. Post-Hurricane Maria Puerto Rican Student Enrollment (K-12) in Massachusetts School

Source: Massachusett’s Department of Education

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Table 4. Puerto Rican Student Enrollment in Pennsylvania School Districts

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates and Pennsylvania Department of Education

K-12 Puerto Rican Student Enrollment

(2015)

School Enrollment as of

1/16/2018

School Enrollment as of

2/22/2018

% Increase Over School Enrollment

Level in 2015

Statewide Total 108,390 2,407 2,874 3%

Selected Counties Total 84,098 2,101 2,532 -

Lehigh 11,013 393 481 4%Philadelphia 31,899 370 414 1%Berks 11,574 283 367 3%

Dauphin 3,311 138 254 8%

York 4,511 205 254 6%

Lancaster 9,958 196 225 2%

Northampton 5,098 191 213 4%Lebanon 3,069 193 193 6%

Luzerne 1,827 88 81 4%

Lackawanna 1,838 44 50 3%

PennsylvaniaAs of February 22, 2018 a total of 2,874 student from Puerto Rico displaced by Hurricane Maria enrolled in Pennsylvania’s school districts. This was an 8% in-crease from January 16, 2018, when a total of 2,407 Puerto Rican school age children enrolled in the state’s school districts. To date, this figure (2,874) represents an increase of 3% over the school enrollment level in 2015 (see table 1). As shown in table 1, our prior estimates reported in October 2017, the total number of school age Puerto Rican children in Pennsylvania (2,874), surpassed the predicted lower bound estimates (880) (Meléndez and Hinojosa, 2017).

Overall, school districts located in the southeast region of the state had the largest influx of Puerto Rican school age children (see figure 3). As of January 30, 2018, counties with the largest intake of Puerto Rican school

age children were Lehigh County school districts (481 students) followed by Philadelphia (414), Berks (367), Dauphin (254), York (254), Lancaster (225), Northamp-ton (213), and Lebanon (193). As show in figure 3, student enrollment from Puerto Rico was seen a lower rate on the western and central regions of the state like: Erie County (39 students), Franklin (26), Northum-berland (26), Montgomery (31 students), Allegheny (23 students), and Schuylkill (14 students). In a one month span, Dauphin County school districts showed the largest absolute change of Puerto Rican student enroll-ment from 138 to 254 students followed by 88 students in Lehigh, 84 in Berks, and 49 in York. While Luzerne, Indiana, Northumberland, Carbon, Potter, and Lycoming showed slight decline of Puerto Rican student enroll-ment displaced by Hurricane Maria.

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Figure 3. Post-Hurricane Maria Puerto Rican Student Enrollment (K-12) in Pennsylvania School

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education

New York4

As of January 29th, 2018, a total of 2,218 students displaced from Puerto Rico have enrolled in New York State’s school districts, this is an 8% increase since the total count of 2,052 in January 4th, 2018. To date, this fig-ure (2,218) represents an increase of 1% over the school enrollment level in 2015 of Puerto Rican students (K-12) statewide. As shown in table 1, our prior estimates re-ported in October 2017, the total number of school age Puerto Rican children in New York (2,218), surpassed the predicted lower bound estimates and the predicted esti-mate (2,095) (Meléndez and Hinojosa, 2017).Overall, the proportion of displaced students from Puerto Rico who enrolled in upstate region school districts locat-ed in upstate regions of the state exceeded to students who enrolled in New York City school districts. Among the

top 5 school districts, at least 21% of students from Puer-to Rico enrolled in Rochester City schools (547 students) followed by 19% in Buffalo (455), 4% in New York City (411), 4% in Yonkers (98), and 2% in Syracuse (81). In terms of absolute change, 6 out of the 39 school districts reported by New York State’s Department of Education, showed an increase of student enrollment of displaced students from Puerto Rico, while the 33 remaining school districts remained the same since the last time the data was collected. School districts with significant increases included Dunkirk City (from 26 to 40 students) Syracuse City (from 53 to 81 students), Buffalo City school districts (from 374 to 455 students), and Rochester City (from 512 to 547 students). On the other hand, displaced students enrolled in New York City school districts remained at 411

Page 8: Puerto Rican Post-Maria Relocation by States

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between both periods, as well as the remaining 33 school districts in the state.

Connecticut

As of February 9, 2018, Connecticut school districts re-ceived a total of 1,827 students from Puerto Rico as a result of Hurricane Maria, a 54% change compared to student enrollment reported in January 22, 2018. As shown in table 1, our prior estimates reported in Octo-ber 2017, the total number of school age Puerto Rican children in Connecticut (1,827), surpassed the predicted lower bound estimates, and is currently near the upper bound (1,860) predicted estimate (Meléndez and Hino-josa, 2017). At least 39% of Puerto Rican students dis-placed by the storm were enrolled in Hartford County’s

school districts followed by 33% in New Haven, 9% in Fairfield, 5% in New London, 5% in Windham, and 1% in Middlesex.In a four-week span of school enrollment data reported on January 22 and February 9th, 2018, Connecticut’s school districts showed an increase of 639 students. Unlike other states reported in this study, Puerto Rican student enrollment increased across all school districts in Connecticut. In absolute change, Hartford County school districts (from 494 to 710 students) showed the highest gain of Puerto Rican students displaced by the storm fol-lowed by New Haven (from 402 to 208 students), Fairfield (from 139 to 169 students), New London (from 76 to 91 students), Windham (from 65 to 86 students), and Mid-dlesex (from 12 to 14 students).

Table 5. Puerto Rican Student Enrollment in New York School Districts

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates and New York Department of Education

K-12 Puerto Rican Student

Enrollment (2015)

School Enrollment as of

1/4/2018

School Enrollment as of

1/29/2018

% Increase Over School Enrollment

Level in 2015

Statewide Total 231,384 2,052 2,218 1%

Selected Counties Total 164,019 1,594 1,757 -

Rochester City 8,118 512 547 7%

Buffalo City 6,247 374 455 7%

New York City 138,678 411 411 0%

Yonkers Public Schools 4,437 98 98 2%

Syracuse City 2,495 53 81 3%

Amsterdam City 1,189 45 45 4%

Dunkirk City 662 26 40 6%

Binghamton City 640 27 27 4%* Mount Morris Central, Victor Central, East Ramapo, and Rensselaer City

- 27 27 -

Utica City 1,553 21 26 2%

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Table 6. Puerto Rican Student Enrollment in Connecticut School Districts

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates and Connecticut Department of Education

K-12 Puerto Rican Student Enrollment

(2015)

School Enrollment as of

1/22/2018

School Enrollment as of

2/18/2018

% Increase Over School Enrollment

Level in 2015

Statewide Total 71,538 1,188 1,827 3%

Selected Counties Total 69,415 1,188 1,680 -

Hartford 27,068 494 710 3%

New Haven 22,116 402 610 3%

Fairfield 12,441 139 169 1%

New London 4,440 76 91 2%

Windham 2,341 65 86 4%

Middlesex 1,009 12 14 1%

Figure 4. Post-Hurricane Maria Puerto Rican Student Enrollment (K-12) in Connecticut School

Source: Connecticut Department of Education

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Table 7. Puerto Rican Student Enrollment in New Jersey School Districts

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates and New Jersey Department of Education

K-12 Puerto Rican Student Enrollment

(2015)School Enrollment as of

2/22/2018% Increase Over School Enrollment Level in 2015

Statewide Total 104,517 886 1%Selected Counties Total 75,907 671 -Camden 11,351 139 1%Essex 12,090 109 1%Cumberland 5,746 85 1%Union 6,627 82 1%Middlesex 9,855 71 1%Passaic 9,588 61 1%Atlantic 5,560 43 1%Hudson 11,477 43 0%Burlington 3,613 38 1%

Figure 5. Post-Hurricane Maria Puerto Rican Student Enrollment (K-12) in New Jersey School Districts

Source: New Jersey Department of Education

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New Jersey6 As of February 22, 2018, a total of 886 students dis-placed from Puerto Rico enrolled in New Jersey’s school districts. To date, this figure (886) represents an increase of 1% over the school enrollment level in 2015 of Puerto Rican students (K-12) statewide. As shown in table 1, our prior estimates reported in October 2017, the total num-ber of school age Puerto Rican children in New Jersey (866), surpassed the predicted lower bound estimates (Meléndez and Hinojosa, 2017). A large proportion of stu-dent enrollment relocated to Camden County school dis-tricts (139 students) followed by 10% in Essex (109 stu-dents), 9% in Cumberland (85 students), 8% in Union (82 students), 7% in Middlesex (71 students), 5% in Passaic County (61 students), and 5% in Atlantic (43 students).

Illinois7 A total of 607 students from Puerto Rico enrolled in Illi-nois school districts from September 20, 2017 to Febru-ary 7, 2018. About half (50.1%) of Puerto Rican students enrolled in Chicago’s public school districts. The remain

ing students from Puerto Rico enrolled in Illinois’s school districts are not reported in this study due restriction of reporting less than 10 students in school districts.

FEMA RELOCATION ESTIMATESAccording to data provided by FEMA a total of 40,013 household members and 19,271 households, who changed their mailing address since they first registered with FEMA, re-located to the U.S. mainland as a result of Hurricane Maria. As shown in figure 6, Florida and other U.S. southern states received a majority of the Puerto Rican migrants. Yet, traditional states of settlements such as New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecti-cut, Illinois, Ohio, and California are currently experienc-ing population growth, and more importantly dispersed settlement patterns within their respective states when compared to existing Puerto Rican settlements (see fig-ure 6). Post-Hurricane Maria Puerto Rican migrants are also relocating in areas beyond central cities of tradition-al states of settlement. School enrollment data also show this trend, particularly in New York State, whereby Puer-

Total Puerto

Rican Population 2016

% of Puerto Rican

Population

Millennial Migration 2013-2016

% Millennial Migration 2013-2016

Total FEMA Evacuees

% FEMA Evacuees

All States Total 5,450,472 100% 64,933 100% 40,013 100%Selected States Total 4,423,107 81% 53,429 82% 35,584 89%

Florida 1,067,747 20% 24,221 37% 18,013 45%

Pennsylvania 444,263 8% 6,333 10% 2,954 7%

Texas 196,460 4% 5,500 8% 1,361 3%New York 1,081,110 20% 3,822 6% 3,683 9%New Jersey 470,143 9% 3,251 5% 1,690 4%

Massachusetts 319,042 6% 3,109 5% 3,399 8%

Connecticut 298,245 5% 2,614 4% 2,281 6%Ohio 122,204 2% 2,420 4% 460 1%California 214,255 4% 1,145 2% 419 1%Illinois 209,638 4% 1,015 2% 1,324 3%

Table 8. Distribution of FEMA Evacuees and Millennial Migrants (2013-2016) in Selected States

Source: FEMA and U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2016 American Community Survey 1-year estimates

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to Rican school-age children showed higher enrollment rates in New York State’s upstate region than in school districts located in New York City (see table 7). Regionally, more than half of post-Maria Puerto Rican migrants relocated in the South (55%) followed by 35% in the Northeast, 7% in Midwest, and 3% in West (see figure 6). In terms of total household members, Flori-da (18,013) received the most Puerto Rican evacuees followed by New York (3,683), Massachusetts (3,399), Pennsylvania (2,954), Connecticut (2,281), New Jersey (1,690), Texas (1,361), Illinois (1,324), Georgia (530), and Virginia (479). As shown in figure 6, Orange County (4,503) followed by Osceola (2,839), Miami-Dade (1,610), Polk (1,490), Hill-sborough (1,366), Broward (1,122), and Seminole (815) counties showed the highest number of Puerto Rican evacuees. However, counties located in traditional states of settlements were also among the top counties with the most Puerto Rican evacuees, a total of: 1,290 evac-uees relocated in Hampden (Massachusetts) followed by 1,289 in Philadelphia (Pennsylvania), 1,116 in Cook (Illi-nois), 1,001 in Hartford (Connecticut), 841 in Bronx (New York), 719 in New Haven (Connecticut), 589 in Worcester (Massachusetts), 587 in Monroe (Upstate New York), and 450 in Kings County (New York).Table 8 shows the population distribution by state of the total Puerto Rican population in 2016, the average num-ber of Puerto Ricans who arrived between 2013 and 2016 (also known as the Millennial migration), and recent data from FEMA of the total household members evacuees in the selected states. It is evident that post-Hurricane Puerto Rican migration is and continues to be driven by Millennial migration, in terms of relocating to similar states, located in both U.S. South, particularly Florida, and in traditional states of settlement. More importantly, Puerto Ricans showed dispersion within both states of new and traditional states, by residing in counties outside central cities. As shown in table 8, 45% of FEMA evacuees relocated to Florida followed by 9% in New York, 8% in Massachu-setts, 7% in Pennsylvania, 6% in Connecticut, 4% in New

Jersey, 3% in Texas, 3% in Illinois, 3% in Illinois, 1% in Georgia, and 1% in Virginia. On the other hand, Millenni-al migration also showed similar, if not close predicated estimates to the FEMA evacuee relocation. For example, during the Millennial migration period, at least 37% relo-cated to Florida followed by 10% in Pennsylvania, 8% in Texas, 6% in New York, 5% in New Jersey, 5% in Massa-chusetts, 4% in Connecticut, 4% in Ohio, 2% in Califor-nia, and 2% in Illinois (see table 8). Eight out of the top 10 states discussed in this report are the same between the distribution of FEMA evacuees and millennial migrants (with the exception of Georgia and Virginia).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONSTo some extent, based on student enrollment and FEMA data, post-Hurricane Maria migrants, generally followed the distribution and predication made from the average of the last three years of settlement from Puerto Rico as result of the Island’s economic crisis. In other words, post-Maria Puerto Rican migrants relocated to states where millennial migrants settled between 2013 and 2016. However, three states of traditional settlement like Massachusett, Connecticut, and New York whereby the magnitude of post-Hurricane Maria Puerto Rican school age children arrivals was over what we had expected in our previous study (Meléndez and Hinojosa, 2017). For example, school age children in all three states sur-passed our predicted estimates and it is expected to be greater than our upper bound estimates in the coming months.

It is also important to note, that families and friends who lived in these traditional states like the Northeast (e.g., New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New Jersey) and Midwest (e.g., Illinois), not identified through FEMA or school enrollment data, also played a major role in re-location by housing their friends and relatives displaced by Hurricane Maria. Puerto Ricans in the military service (inactive, active and veterans) also played a role in also relocating their friends and relatives in the New South , West and Midwest regions (Franqui-Riveria, 2017). Ac-cording to Franqui-Riveria, top destination for Island-born active duty personnel included Texas, North Carolina,

Page 13: Puerto Rican Post-Maria Relocation by States

13

Virginia, Florida, and Georgia (Franqui-Rivera, 2017).

Overall, data from FEMA confirms that Puerto Rican evacuees are settling in almost every state and every region of the county (see figure 6). However, this trend is a continuation of the Millennial migration from Puer-to Rico, stateside Puerto Ricans who were moving from state to state, and natural growth (Vargas-Ramos & Hi-nojosa, 2017). As discussed by Hinojosa and Vargas-Ra-mos (2017), between 2000 and 2014, the Puerto Rican population showed notable population growth in the U.S. south, particularly, in states like: North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Virginia, and Florida, while states like Pennsyl-

vania and Ohio, were among the only traditional states of settlement to show population growth. On the other hand, Puerto Rican population decline were observed in the following states of traditional settlement: New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California. Lastly, Puerto Ricans in Connecticut and Massachusetts showed, at the time, no population growth or decline and instead remained steady between 2000 and 2014. However, this narrative of Puerto Rican population growth and decline change and has been intensified by the incoming Puerto Rican newcomers during the 2017 post-Hurricane Maria wave.

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Figu

re 6.

FEM

A Ev

acue

es (T

otal

Hous

ehol

d Me

mbe

rs)

Page 15: Puerto Rican Post-Maria Relocation by States

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Figure 7. FEMA Evacuees in Selected Northeast States

Figure 8. FEMA Evacuees in Florida

Page 16: Puerto Rican Post-Maria Relocation by States

Center for Puerto Rican Studies Hunter College, CUNY

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Notes1. Edwin Meléndez and Jennifer Hinojosa, Estimates of Post-Hurricane Maria Exodus from Puerto Rico, Centro RB2017-01, Issued October 2017.2. As of February 18, 2018. 3. Edwin Meléndez and Jennifer Hinojosa, Estimates of Post-Hurricane Maria Exodus from Puerto Rico, Centro RB2017-01, Issued October 2017.4. Due to unavailable data and numerous merges of school districts, mapping and comparative analysis is not discussed in this report for New York State. The most recent data, January 29, 2018 is analyzed and discussed in this research brief.5. A total of 1,188 students were reported to have relocated to Connecticut’s school districts on January 22, 2018.6. New Jersey’s Department of Education cannot confirm that these aggregated counts at the county level include every stu- dent enrolled who was displaced from Puerto Rico by Hurricane Maria. Comparative analysis is not discussed in this report as the most recent data, 7. Due to unavailable data and numerous merges of school districts, mapping and comparative analysis is not discussed in this report for Illinois. The most recent data, February 7, 2018 is analyzed and discussed in this research brief. More importantly, students are not distinguished between who newly enrolled directly from Puerto Rico. 8. Add FEMA disclosure and data information. 9. According to the author he describes the New South as the former original confederate states.

References Franqui-Rivera, Harry. 2017. Migration and Military Service: a Pathway to the Middle Class. In State of Puerto Ricans 2017, eds.Edwin Meléndez and Carlos Vargas-Ramos. 33-42. New York: Centro Press. Meléndez, Edwin, Hinojosa, Jennifer, and Roman, Nashia. 2017. Post-Hurricane Maria Exodus from Puerto Rico and School Enrollment in Florida. Research Brief. Center for Puerto Rican Studies, Hunter College,CUNY. Meléndez, Edwin and Hinojosa, Jennifer. 2017. Estimates of Post-Hurricane Maria Exodus from Puerto Rico. Research Brief. Center for Puerto Rican Studies, Hunter College, CUNY. Vargas-Ramos, Carlos and Hinojosa, Jennifer. 2017. Introduction. In The Almanac of Puerto Ricans in the United States, eds. Carlos Vargas-Ramos and Jennifer Hinojosa. 5-11. New York: Centro Press.