Public Reactions to Resignation and Future Political Landscape · 2014. 5. 9. · Public expects Martin to be the next Liberal leader ¾ 56% expect him to be next LPC leader with

CBC,CBC,Toronto Star,Toronto Star,

SRC,SRC,La La PressePresse,,EKOS PollEKOS Poll

Commissioned by:

August 26, 2002August 26, 2002

Back in Control:Public Reactions to Resignation and Future

Political Landscape

Outline

A Methodology

B Highlights

Vote IntentionsC

The Next LeaderD

Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission

A. MethodologyMethodology


Methodology

Telephone surveys of the general publicMost recent survey includes 1210 completed interviews with a national random sample of Canadians 18 years of age and over (n=307 in Quebec)Interview period: August 22-25, 2002National results valid within +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 (Quebec: + 5.7%)

The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided.

It should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error.

Tracking results from EKOS Rethinking Government study

All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data


B. HighlightsHighlights


HighlightsLiberals regain public confidence and opposition loses ground since PM’s announcement

53% of public would cast a Liberal vote; nearly a 40 point lead over PCsHuge lead in Ontario and now a lead in every region of the countryAlliance and PC parties have switched positions with PC now holding slight lead

Public support for Chrétien announcement of Feb. 2004 resignation67% support only 25% opposeModest opposition leans to view that he should go earlier but 1 in 5 think he should have stayed; PC, BQ and CA more likely to desire earlier departure

Public expects Martin to be the next Liberal leader56% expect him to be next LPC leader with Manley distant second (5%) followed by Tobin (3%) and Rock, Copps and McKenna (2%)Strong majority think he would be a “good choice” for PM

Few expect different policy trajectory from Martin-led government; same but “better”

Most believe it is not about a new vision or direction (21%) but rather better management (37%) or the pursuit of office (31%) Extremely favourable view of Martin spills over to policy arena. He is seen as offering moderate or little change but better execution. Ironically, he is seen as delivering both lower taxes and more social investment


C. Vote IntentionsVote Intentions


One-party Government?

Liberal support is deep and broadLiberals now lead in every regionHave or are close to majority support among both genders and all age, education and income groups in CanadaFriction and turbulence of summer has been quickly displaced by PM’s announcement (and Martin’s position)

Liberals currently the “governing party”Opposition divided and unable to take advantage of internal conflicts within Liberal party and ethics troubles that plagued government in the springThose looking for a disruption from status quo are likely to be disappointed given Liberal vault to supremacy in the polls and apparent solution to internal conflict


Federal Voting PreferenceQ: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters

only*]

Election 2000

8.0%

10.6%

14.7%

10.5%

53.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Undecided: 24.8%

40.9%

25.5%

12.2%

8.5%

10.7%

*Decided voters only: won’t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; “leaners” included.


Federal Voting PreferencesQ: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

[Decided voters only*]

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Dec-96

May-97*

Elec-97

Nov-97

Mar-98

Apr-98

Oct-98

Dec-98

Jan-99

Mar-99

May-99

Jul-99

Oct-99

Dec-99

Feb-00

Mar-00

May-00

Jun-00

Jul-00

Oct-00

Oct 25*

Nov 15*

Nov 22*

Elec-00

Jan-01

Jun-01

Aug-01Dec-0

1Jan

-0216-M

ay-02

30-May-0

216-J

un-02

25-Aug-02

Liberal PC Reform/CA

Decided voters only: won’t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; “leaners” included


Federal Voting Preferences: Regional

{Base: Decided voters only: won’t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; “leaners” included}

Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters only*]

0%

20%

40%

60%

Liberal CA PC BQ NDP Other

Liberal 48% 34% 50% 64% 47% 49%CA 22% 23% 19% 8% 3% 5%PC 9% 25% 12% 17% 5% 34%BQ 34%NDP 17% 13% 15% 9% 8% 9%Other 3% 5% 4% 2% 4% 3%

BC Alta. Prairies Ont. Que. Atl.


D. The Next LeaderThe Next Leader


Martin Enjoys Considerable Lead in RacePublic support for Martin is very strong

56 per cent expect Martin to be next LPC leader (Manley is distant second (5%))63 per cent think that Martin would be “good choice” for PM. No other tested candidate comes close with considerable uncertainty about potential contenders

Martin support is high among all groups, with lean in conservative directionOlder, higher educated and higher income Canadians more likely to rate Martin as good choicePC, BQ and CA voters also rate Martin high; NDP voters are much less positiveMartin also linked to lower taxes and more privatization

Expectations sky-high for MartinMost expect Martin largely to maintain the status quo: taxes (47%), managing the economy (47%) and social programs (42%)For those who expect differences, the differences are moderate not radical. The expectations are mostly positive: lower taxes, better management of the economy, higher investment in social programs and more private health careMartin enjoys the highest levels of popularity seen in recent political history but expectations (some of which are unrealistic and contradictory) are sky-highMartin represents “safe change” for the public.


Support for Chrétien’s ResignationQ: Prime Minister Chrétien announced on August 21st that he will stay on as Prime Minister until

February 2004 but will not be seeking re-election. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this decision?

CA PC BQNDPLPC

9

15

10

30

37

0 20 40 60 80 100

8Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose

Strongly support

Somewhat support

39 47 41 35

33 10 20 28

12 10 15

11 32 22 18

39

36

8

DK/NR

12

5 2 7 4 4

{Base: All Canadians; n=1187}


Opposition to Chrétien’s ResignationQ: What is the main reason why you oppose this decision? Is it because…

BQLPC NDPPCCA

4

19

77

0 20 40 60 80 100

DK/NR

You think that thePrime Minister should

not be forced to resign

You think that thePrime Minister should

leave sooner67 90 87 72 89

28 8 8 25 11

4 3 5 2 0

{Base: Those opposed; n=317}


Next Prime Minister?Q: Who do you think is the most likely to be the next Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and

Prime Minister?

28

3

2

2

2

3

5

56

0 20 40 60 80 100

Paul Martin

John Manley

Brian Tobin

Allan Rock

Frank McKenna

Other

DK/NR

Sheila Copps



Rating the Future Prime Minister

28

10

17

13

18

17

6

22

49

31

43

23

26

13

32

21

31

22

32

28

19

18

21

21

22

27

29

63

0 25 50 75 100

Frank McKenna*

Sheila Copps*

Allan Rock

Mike Harris*

John Manley

Brian Tobin*

Paul Martin

DK/NR Poor choice Neither good nor bad Good choice

{Base: All Canadians; n=1210; * indicates ½ sample}

+2-4

-14-28

+1-10

n.a.-21

+13+4

+13+3

+63+50

LiberalsOverallGood-Poor

Q: For each of the following people, please rate the degree to which they would be a good Prime Minister for Canada.


Paul Martin’s MotivesQ: What do you think is the primary reason Paul Martin wants to be Prime Minister?

He wants to do a better job managing the country

He wants to take the country in a fundamentally new direction

He wants to be Prime Minister for the sake of being Prime Minister

21

3137

11

DDK/NR



Martin as Prime Minister

6

5

7

53

47

42

31

33

38

10

15

13

0 25 50 75 100

Tax Level

Managing theeconomy

Investing in socialprograms like

health care andeducation

DK/NR Basically the same Somewhat dif ferent Very dif ferent

Q:If Paul Martin was the next Prime Minister, how different do you think his policies would be from the current Prime Minister Jean Chrétien in the following areas:



Martin’s Policies - TaxesQ: If Paul Martin was the next Prime Minister,

how different do you think his policies would be from the current Prime Minister JeanChrétien in the following areas: tax level?

32

61

7

Higher Lower DK/NR

Q: [If different] Would it be higher or lower?

6

53

31

10

0 20 40 60 80 100

DK/NR

Basicallythe same

Somewhatdifferent

Verydifferent

{Base: n=492}


Martin’s Policies – The EconomyQ: If Paul Martin was the next Prime

Minister, how different do you think his policies would be from the current Prime Minister Jean Chrétien in the following areas: managing the economy?

83

116

Better Worse DK/NR

Q: [If different] Would it be better or worse?

5

47

33

15

0 20 40 60 80 100

DK/NR

Basicallythe same

Somewhatdifferent

Verydifferent

{Base: n=581}


Martin’s Policies – Social Programs

10

4

29

25

61

71

0 25 50 75 100DK/NR Less More

Q: If Paul Martin was the next Prime Minister, how different do you think his policies would be from the current Prime Minister JeanChrétien in the following areas: Investing in social programs like education and health care?

{Base: n=611}

7

42

38

13

0 20 40 60 80 100

DK/NR

Basicallythe same

Somewhatdifferent

Verydifferent

Q: [If different] Would there be more or less investment?

Q: [If different] Would there be more or less private health care?

Private health care

Investment


Bottom LinePM’s February 2004 exit has produced strong approval and Liberals have vaulted to a near 40 point lead in the polls

This exit strategy extinguished the on-going internal conflict by starting the official leadership race, which appears to be more coronation than contest

Paul Martin enjoys enormous popularity with the public. He has a huge lead over all other contenders and appears unstoppable as the next LPC leader.

Martin’s only apparent danger is the extent of public expectations, which are both high and contradictory. The public expects both more spending and lower taxes and share an overwhelming conviction that he will improve an already robust Canadian economyNone of the other contenders appear particularly threatening at this time

For more information:Frank Graves, President

[email protected]

Christian Boucher, Senior [email protected]

Richard [email protected]

t: 613 235 7215

Documents

Public Reactions to Resignation and Future Political Landscape · 2014. 5. 9. · Public expects Martin to be the next Liberal leader ¾ 56% expect him to be next LPC leader with