Public Opinion

Unit 2

Inconsistencies

Unpopular government actions

Popular rule vs. popular policies

How to gauge what the public interests are

Political action translates into weighted opinions (the more involved you are, the more you are heard)

What is public opinion?

Value of polls Value of elections Consensus – 75% at

least of people Polarized – less than

75%

Origins of Political Theory

“brainwashed” theory– Manipulation by media/

candidates/ activists

Family– Strongest– Identification with

parents political party Changing issues with

time Discussion of ideology

Origins of political attitudes (cont.)

Religion– Affect of particular religious social

status– Religious tradition

Protestants – more conservative Catholics – more liberal Jews - liberal

Gender– Changing political issues affect

which party women tend to support

– Women’s issues (prohibition, war, rights)

Security issues – women moved to right in 2004

Origins of political attitudes (cont.)

Educational Levels– College education usually

translates into greater liberalism– College doesn’t translate into

liberalism, but characteristics of students

– Exposure to different philosophies/thoughts

– Nature of intellectual work– Increased political influence

Income Levels Opinion Leaders Mass Media

Cleavages in Public Opinion

Many divisions: race, religion, region, education, occupation, income, etc.

Issues weighted differently by different people

Social Class– Different views/lifestyles– Voting patterns– Decreasing differentials

Cleavages in public opinion, cont.

Race and Ethnicity– Blacks most consistently

liberal members of Democratic Party

– Some disagreements between black leaders and black citizens

– Other ethnic groups not as concentrated

Cleavages in public opinion, cont.

Region/Geography– Differences greatest

for non-economic issues

– Cultural/social differences

– Changes: south used to be solid democrats, now shifting toward Republican

– Population shifts

Cleavages in public opinion, cont.

Political affiliation – strongest vote indicator

– Growing number of non-aligned voters

– More registering as independent, roughly 1/3

– Most lean toward one party or another

– Younger, wealthier, college educated

Realigning elections – long term change in political realignment: 1932, 1994

Political Ideology

Consistent attitudes define political ideology– Liberal active national government that intervenes

in the economy and creates a social welfare state– Conservatives- opposing an activist national

government: free market; state’s rights– Changing definitions – huge historical changes

Political Ideology, cont. Categories of opinion

– Foreign Policy Liberals favor reduced military build-up and

interventions Conservatives favor defense preparedness

and protection of interests– Economy

Liberals favor government spread of wealth Conservatives favor free market

– Civil Rights Liberals favor government action providing

opportunities Conservatives favor personal initiative

– Public and Political Conduct Liberals tolerate protests, legalizing drugs,

decriminalize “victimless” crimes, rights of the accused

Conservatives favor laws/punishment

More accurate political labels

Pure liberals– Economic and personal

issues

Pure conservatives– Economic and personal

issues

Libertarians– Conservative economically,

liberal socially

Populists– Liberal economically,

conservative socially

Political Elites

Activists in nature Educated in political

issues New class of influence

in America– Personal investment in

the growth of government

Political Elites, Public Opinion, and Public Policy

Elites have access to the media thus raising and framing political issues

– Set the ‘norms’ for issues to be judged

– Often resist the efforts of the general public

– Try to ‘set’ opinion for entire country

– Differences between elite and public opinion – going back to elite and popular culture

Public Opinion

The art of polling– Persons interviewed must be a random sample– Questions must be asked fairly– Questions must be comprehensible– Answer categories offered to a person must be

carefully considered– Must consider sampling errors– Polls can be purposely skewed

Difficulty of truly gauging public opinion

Political Participation: A Look at Non-Voting

Proportion of registered voters vs. proportion of voting age citizens

Low turnout in the US reflects on apathy of people to register, those registered tend to vote

– Citizen– Resident– Age– Register– Non-Felon

A look at nonvoting…

Various reasons for not registering center on registration process

– Institutional barriers Registration Long ballot Lack of strong candidate Type of elections/number of elections Difficulty of getting absentee ballots

– Motor voter law

A look at nonvoting…

Voting is only one avenue of political participation

Low registration may represent satisfaction with government

Lack of education? Lack of access?

The Rise of the American Electorate

U.S. first offered opportunity for number of citizens to vote

State to Federal control of voting

– Congress has taken control of restrictions to voting

– 15th Amendment used often by courts

– Extended vote to women (19th)– Age restrictions (26th)

Voting Turnout

Downward trends in the 20th century

– Less than 50% in Presidential Elections

– 30-40% in midterm, Congressional elections

– Much lower compared to other countries

Parties more active in the 19th century than later ones

– Political machines– Voting violations– Advent of secret ballots, 1890

Forms of Political Participation

Voting Contributions Organizational

Participation – communalists

Campaigners

Causes of Participation

Higher amongst the better educated Higher as people age Higher among those with higher incomes Whites more likely to vote than blacks Tend to skew election results and campaign

costs

Impediments

Youthfulness of population

Political parties not as effective

Unimportance (perceived) of elections

Participation Rates

Increasing for nonvoting action

Level out when considering how many elective office and elections there are

Parties in General

A way of identifying candidates to the voters

Parties can reflect changing times

– Serve as labels– Exists as an organization– Provides a set of leaders

European political nominations come from within the parties

– Campaigns are run and financed by the party

Parties in General, cont.

Parties have not centralized as the government has from state authority to federal authority

In U.S. elections, the Congressional and Presidential elections can be/are unrelated

Registering as a party member does not dictate participation

The Rise and Decline of the Political Party

Hostility to parties from founders of the US

– Emergence of the Jefferson Republicans in the 1790s

– Hamilton’s followers kept Federalist identification

Unable to compete with the Democratic Republicans

First party system

The Rise and Decline of the Political Party

Second Party System– Emerged with the

Jacksonian Democrats– Initial appearance of the

party convention– Whigs as opposition

parties

Rise and Decline of the Political Party

Appearance of Sectionalism

– Slavery as divisive as political issues

– Modern Republican party is born (only 3rd party to do well)

Came to dominance as a result of the Civil War

Various factions within party– Stalwarts– “mugwumps”– Progressives– reformers

Rise and Decline of the Political Party

Progressive Era– Primary elections– Initiatives– Referendums

National Party Structure Today

Different structures and organizations at each level (local, state, etc.)

At national level, both parties very similar

– National conventions every 4 years

– National committees– Congressional campaign

committees– National chairperson

National Party Structure Today, cont.

Recently, the Republicans have become more bureaucratized while the democrats have become more factionalized

– Republicans are financing a national political consulting firm

Parties determine number and requirements of delegates to national conventions

State and Local Parties

Political Machines– Recruits via incentives– Operated as a form of social welfare– Gradual introduction of federal restrictions

regarding machines– Recognition of the organization that is a part of

politics– Fewer machines in existence today

State and Local Politics

Ideological Parties– Usually take form of 3rd parties– Factions within established parties– Harder to define leadership

Solidary Groups– Social activity

Sponsored Parties– Unions/ other interests support

Personal Following– Based on friends, charisma, bank

account

The Two-Party System

Different Parties dominate at different times and regions

Longevity of the two-party system is amazing

– Plurality of votes leads to fewer candidates (majority of votes would encourage more candidates as there would be run-offs)

– Winner take all Electoral College

– Difficulty of third party candidates to get on ballot

Minor Parties

Permanent fixtures of American political life

Can have major impact on presidential elections

Nominating a President

Do the delegates represent the voters?

– Activists and leaders carry different views than regular party members

– Discrepancy placed on selection process

– Selection via caucuses and primary elections

– Issue oriented delegates

Parties vs. Voters

Democratic presidential nominees have had differing views from average voters

Elections and Campaigns – Presidential versus Congressional

Presidential Races– More competitive during

initial stages – weed out the week

– Party alliance not as important as in other races

– More people vote and participate, although turnout is still low

Congressional Campaigns

Congressional representatives can offer specific programs

Can distance self from messes

Voter anger at President can carry over to Congress

Usually, elections are not separate from Presidential ones

Running for President

Presidential caliber Familiarity to voters Political actions Money

– Requirements for federal matching

– Cost of campaigns

Organization

Running for President

Strategy and themes– Tone of campaign– Consistent theme– Timing– Target voters

Primary versus General Campaigns

Mobilization of political activists

Speeches– Brief, to the point– Don’t want to turn off

voters

Use of media– Packaging of the candidates– Advertising– Newscasts– Campaign debates

Primary versus General Campaigns, cont.

Kinds of elections– General– Primary

Closed, open, or blanket

– Run-off Primary– Presidential Primary

Delegate selection Delegate selection with

advisory presidential preference

Binding presidential preference

Money

Rising Costs of elections

Sources of campaign money

– Private donors– Presidential candidates

can receive federal funds– PACs– Benefits– Challengers have to put

out more personal money than incumbents

Campaign Finance Rules, 1974

Federal Election Committee (FED)

All candidates must disclose contributions and expenditures

Presidential candidates may receive federal matching funds

– FEC then applies guidelines/restrictions

– Qualified based on percentage of vote received contribution limits

Campaign Finance Rules, 1974

Contribution Limits– Individuals: $2000 per

candidate, per election year – limit, $25,000

– PACs: $5,000 per candidate per election year, no overall cap

Allows for soft money-independent committees that do own advertising

Donations to national party are not included

Independent Political Advertising

Advertising for a candidate but not through their campaign = NO LIMIT

Political Party Donations

Unlimited but need to be spent on local activities

Effects of Reform

Reforms have actually led to INCREASED campaign spending– primarily though growth of PACs– Candidate have more control over more money– Advantage to wealthy candidates– Campaigns have tendency to now focus on

emotional appeals– Encourage early declaration of presidency– Reforms help the incumbents, hurt challengers

Money and Winning

Affect on Congressional races

Easier for incumbents to raise money based on their current position

What Decides the Election?

Party Identification Issues (especially the

economy) Prospective voting (forward

looking) Retrospective voting

(backward looking)– Most elections decided on

this issues: what have you done for me lately?

What decides the election?

The Campaign– Reawaken the partisan loyalties of voters– Chance to watch candidate under pressure– Opportunity to judge the character and core

values of candidates

Finding a winning coalition– Adding swing voters to the base votes– Demographic factors in building a coalition

Election Outcomes

Party realignments– Critical or realigning

periods

Party decline– Increase of split-ticket

voting– Traditional “party

column” has changed to “office block”

The Effects of Elections on Policy

Parties are weak coalitions of diverse elements

Without a crisis (war, depression, etc.) major changes are rare

Exceptions occur when there is a large “party” win – landslide control of Presidency and Congress

Popular Consensus

Interest Groups

Proliferation– Reasons for interest groups

Great variety in interests as society separates and grows– Economic and social groupings– Immigrant issues/cultural differences– Religious issues

Access to government– Political authority shared at all levels– Many opportunities to voice opinion/try to influence

Weakness of political parties– Interests work outside of parties

Birth of Interest Groups

1960s and 1970s as boom years for interest groups

– Cyclical growth of interest groups throughout history

Economic development Government policies Development of leadership Government activities

instigate organizational growth

Kinds of Organizations

Interest groups seek to influence public policy

Institutional interests– Representing other

organizations– Business, other government

organizations, etc.

Kinds of Organizations

Membership Interests– Incentives to join:

Solidary incentives Material benefits Purpose of organization

– If organization will benefit non-member, it is a public interest lobby

– Interest in controversial principles are ideological interest groups

Influence of Interest group staff

Interest Groups and Social Movements

Environmental Movement– Sierra Club Environmental

Defense Fund Environmental Action

Feminist Movement– Different groupings throughout

history– Different goals historically

Solidary incentive organizations: League of Women Voters

Purposive incentives (NOW, Abortion Rights)

Specific issues that have material benefit

Interest Groups and Social Movements

Union Movement– Changing demographics

and economics have hurt movement

Funds for Interest Groups

Foundation Grants Federal Grants and

Contracts Direct Mail

The Problem of Bias

Do interest groups reflect the elite?

– The wealthy are more inclined to participate in interest groups

– Many interest groups represent business/government

Activities of Interest Groups

Information Try and show public support for issues (real or not)

– Use of public pressure– Grassroots approach

Money and PACs– Changing role of money with campaign finance reform– Rapid growth of PACs

Undefined role-do PACs influence policy or are they told what to do and how to finance campaigns?

– Unchartable role of financial contributors (special privileges? Lincoln Bedroom, perhaps?)

Activities of Interest Groups, cont.

The “Revolving” Door– Movement of workers from government positions to

private positions worry some regarding undue influence

Is the position payback from an earlier political favor? Does the person use their earlier contacts in undue fashion?

Trouble– Disruptive tactics

Political ploy to gain the nation’s attention

– No-win situation for the government To give/cave in or ignore?

Regulating Interest Groups

Interest group activities are protected by the first amendment

Direct lobbyists need to register (no direct enforcement)

Regulatory questions– Should money and contributions be accounted for?

Restrictions on interest groups come more from tax codes, etc. than from government regulation

Serious lobbying for changes tax-exempt status of group

Journalism in American Political History

The Party Press– Circulation among the political and

commercial elites– Relentlessly partisan, tied to the

government The Popular Press

– Self-supporting, mass readership newspapers appear

– Partisan from perspective of publishers

– Use of sensationalism to increase readership

Joseph Pulitzer, William R. Hearst Creating national consensus, opinion

Journalism in American Political History

Magazines of Opinion– Move away from “yellow journalism”– Issues of public policy– National constituency on behalf of certain

issues– Muckrakers– Familiarity of “household” name authors

Electronic Journalism– Opportunity to speak directly to the

people– Economic factors– Less opportunity for all politicians and all

viewpoints to be heard Boredom factor

The Structure of the Media

Mass media NOT mirror of reality – they select what they cover

Degree of competition– Decline in competing

newspapers– Increased competition in

radio and television

The Structure of the Media

The national media– Wire services– News magazines– Network news– Importance of national press

Government officials pay attention to what they say about them More prestigious reporters Gatekeeper: influence what becomes news items Scorekeepers: keep track of who is doing what (may not reflect actual

importance) Watchdog: close examination (once media decides candidate/politician

is important)

The Structure of the Media

Differences between print and electronic news

– Newspapers can cover in greater depth

– TV chooses stories for visual impact as well as importance

– More money involved in TV

Rules Governing the Media

More regulations for TV and radio than for print

Incorporation of First Amendment Rights

Responsibility relates to libelous, obscene, or intent to commit an illegal act

– Courts have narrow definitions

– Proof of malicious intent

Rules Governing the Media, cont.

Confidentiality of sources

– Courts decide if able to keep sources confidential or not

– If bears on commission of a crime, the courts usually back the government

Rules Governing the Media, cont.

Regulation and deregulation– Role of the FCC– Application/renewal process for radio and TV– Content regulations

Equal time rule: candidates for political office Right of reply rule: person has opportunity to defend self Political editorializing rule: opposing candidate has right

to reply

Rules Governing the Media, cont.

Campaigning– Not always an efficient

way of reaching the electorate

– Various markets

The Effects of the Media on Politics

Difficult to determine influence of media on elections– Input from other sources– Selective attention

Heavy media spending does seem to help some candidates

Media can accurately reflect the issues that citizens find important

Voters who read newspapers see candidates differently than those who only watch TV

Government and the News

Prominence of the President

– Role and importance of relationship between the President and the Media

– Role of the press secretary and news briefings

Coverage of Congress– Not as broad based as

presidential coverage– Efforts at increasing

attention

Interpreting Political News

Public and media see the roles/actions of the media differently

Journalists, in general, are more liberal than the public

Interpreting Political News

Are news stories slanted?– Routine stories– Selected stories– Insider stories– Nonroutine stories

Stories can reflect journalists’ opinions even more than the opinions of experts in the field

– What beliefs or opinions led the editors to run this story?– How representative of expert and popular opinion are the views of

the people quoted in the story?– What adjectives are being used to color the story?

Interpreting Political News

Government restraints on journalists

– Journalists need to contact with officials

– Role of official press officers Why do we have so many

news leaks?– Leaks are favorable to a

politician’s interest– Competition for coverage and

power– Role of the adversarial press