Public Opinion Trends in AfghanistanCSIS – Feb. 11, 2009

Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News

ABC News/BBC/ARD pollin Afghanistan

• Fourth in a series since 2005• Field Dates: Dec. 30, 2008-Jan. 12, 2009• Interviews: 1,534• Coverage: Full national

• Methodology: 194 random sampling points, stratified urban/rural, PPS to district, SRS at settlement level.

• Oversamples: Balkh, Helmand, Herat, Kandahar, Kunduz, Logar, Nangarhar, Wardak.

• Field: Random route, Kish grid. 176 Afghan interviewers, 86/90 w/m, 18% supervised or back-checked, logical controls in DP.

• Average 33-minute interview. Contact rate 91 percent, co-operation rate 95 percent, net RR 86 percent.

• Field work by Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research, subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc., Vienna, Va.

Baghlan(ACSOR photo)

Badakhshan(ACSOR photo)

Kunar(ACSOR photo)

Badakhshan(ACSOR photo)

Badghis(ACSOR photo)

Laghman(ACSOR photo)

Laghman(ACSOR photo)

Badghis(ACSOR photo)

Baghlan(ACSOR photo)

Badghis(ACSOR photo)

Baghlan(ACSOR photo)

Kandahar(ACSOR photo)

Bamiyan(ACSOR photo)

Bamiyan(ACSOR photo)

Bamiyan(ACSOR photo)

Bamiyan(ACSOR photo)

Bamiyan(ACSOR photo)

Field Reports

• Pawran: “The last explosion had a bad effect on people, they all seemed afraid and had concern about security. That explosion was in Charikar and killed seven and more than 10 were injured in the attack.”

• Khost: The “way is block(ed) due to heavy snow and people are facing problems when they have illness and other emergency cases. Last week coalition forces searched two houses and they killed the head of the family and injured women and children. These kinds of searches and operations make the people mad and sad.”

• Kandahar: “The city remains relatively calm, but in suburban areas there is no control of government according to the feeling of the people.”

• Nimroz: “Taliban kidnapped two workers of voter registration program and they are searching cars on the roads, people want to have police stations on the whole way.”

• Herat: “There are reconstruction projects in most districts of Herat province and they are discussed by many people. Several members of the police force were arrested for helping Taliban on 30th December… about a dozen others defected to the Taliban.”

• Zabul: “The people encountered by the field team complained about security and there was a sense of dissatisfaction with foreign forces, ANA (Afghan Army) and ANP (police) because they make problems for the people rather than help them. There were also complaints about the lack of medical facilities.”

• Ghazni: “There has been an increase in reconstruction projects… but the roads of some districts are blocked due to heavy snow and people are in economic problems.”

• Paktika: “People have complaints about high prices of foods and fuels.”

• Takhar: “Ahangran district villages received electricity and security has improved.”

• Badghis: “Voter registration process has started in the districts. People are starting to register.”

• Farah: “There is an impression that many younger people are trying to go to Iran to look for work and better security.”

Just Today – 2/11/09• 19 killed, 54 injured in attacks on the Ministry of

Justice and Prisons Department buildings in Kabul.

• “About three hours after the first attacks in Kabul, ABC News received a call from the Taliban. The caller claimed there were more than 20 suicide attackers in the city. Of course totally unverifiable, but clearly an attempt to paralyze the city with fear.”

Key Findings

Reason 1: Security

Resurgence of the Taliban

Local Conditions/Development

Demographic Profile

• 48% illiterate; 59%, no formal education• 93% monthly incomes <$300; 54% <$100• 55% have no electric power. Of rest: 15% own

generator, 17% share generator, 13% power line• 11% own a fridge, 12% a car, 38% a TV. Mobile

phone steadily up; 31% in 2005, 55% now• 72% of men employed, 5% women; of those

working, 64% are farmers, laborers or artisans• 56% of adults under age 35 (comp. 31% U.S.)

Measuring the Effects

Dependent variables • “Right direction”• Performance of central gov’t• Performance of provincial gov’t• Performance of United States

Independent variables: • Ratings, local conditions overall• Ratings of local security• Ratings of local jobs and economy• Able to afford food• Able to afford fuel• Index (neg.) of local development• Index of rebuilding• Benefited from foreign aid• Corruption a big problem• Index of violence in past year• Taliban gained strength• Region• Rural/nonrural• Electricity• Income, age, education, ethnicity,

sex

Regression Model

Predicting: Right Direction Beta Sig.Kabul -0.208 0.002Rating local conditions overall 0.172 0.000Taliban gained strength -0.127 0.000Income -0.103 0.003Benefited from foreign aid 0.102 0.001Central -0.102 0.045Rating of local security 0.095 0.004Expect life better in a year 0.083 0.005

Predicting: Positive ratings of central government Beta Sig.Kabul -0.274 0.000Northwest -0.210 0.000Southwest -0.202 0.000Rating local conditions overall 0.200 0.000North -0.187 0.001Taliban gained strength -0.170 0.000Able to afford food 0.172 0.000Expect life better in a year 0.136 0.000Central East Non-Kabul -0.122 0.003Central -0.105 0.019Rating of local security 0.097 0.001Negative ratings of local development -0.097 0.001Income -0.091 0.003Index of violence in past year -0.089 0.003Rating of local jobs and economy 0.087 0.002Index of rebuilding -0.062 0.029

Predicting: Positive ratings of provincial government Beta Sig.Kabul -0.236 0.000Northwest -0.135 0.019Southwest -0.130 0.012Expect life better in a year 0.129 0.000Rating local conditions overall 0.127 0.000Negative ratings of local development -0.118 0.000Taliban gained strength -0.094 0.001Able to afford food 0.082 0.027Rating of local security 0.070 0.028

Predicting: Positive ratings of U.S. in Afghanistan Beta Sig.Southwest -0.178 0.001Rural 0.175 0.000Expect life better in a year 0.161 0.000East -0.146 0.004Rating of local jobs and economy 0.132 0.000Taliban gained strength -0.115 0.000Rating of local security 0.114 0.000Income 0.112 0.001Central East Non-Kabul -0.102 0.026Benefited from foreign aid 0.073 0.016

Security and Development

Security and DevelopmentBoth Sec G Sec B BothGood Dev B Dev G Bad

All Afghanistan 31% 23% 20% 22%

Central East 44 24 16 13North 43 37 4 13Northeast 39 33 9 11Northwest 28 22 23 25Central 24 11 37 23 East 22 3 48 27Southeast 17 41 14 26Southwest 14 13 22 51

Security/Development –Influence on Other Views

Security and DevelopmentBoth Sec G Sec B Both

Good Dev B Dev G Bad(31%) (23%) (20%) (22%)

“Right direction” 52% 44 34 24Positive rating of:Central gov’t 58 48 50 36

Provincial gov 55 45 50 31U.S. in Afghanistan 39 41 25 20

Further Challenges

Ways Forward

Thank you!