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International Republican Institute
Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization
Rating Group Ukraine
with funding from the National Endowment for Democracy
1
Public Opinion Survey
Residents of Ukraine
May 11 – June 2, 2012
Methodology
The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/Gallup on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine. The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine older than the age of 18 and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion.
• The sample design was a multi-stage random sample:
Stage one: Ukraine is divided into 27 official administrative regions (25 regions of Ukraine,
Kyiv and Sevastopol). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed.
Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes
according to the size of population (City more than one million, 500,000-999,000, 100,000-
499,000, 50,000-99,000, 50,000 and less, village)
Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was
proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each
region. The survey was conducted in 106 settlements , including 37 rural and 69 urban ones.
Stage three: primary sampling units were described. The closest birthday rule was used for
selection of the respondent. The households were selected using the random route method.
Data were collected on May 11 – June 2, 2012, through face-to-face interviews with the respondents.
The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.
Response rate was 48 percent.
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012 2
MOOD OF UKRAINE
3 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction
or wrong direction?
13
71
73
66
16
14
20
13
14
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nov 2011
March 2012
May 2012
Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA
4 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household
changed?
1
0.2
6
6
9
37
39
45
36
34
30
18
18
13
2
2
3
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nov 2011
March 2012
May 2012
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA
5 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine
to change?
1
1
7
8
13
30
32
35
32
32
26
17
15
11
12
14
113
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nov 2011
March 2012
May 2012
Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot DK/NA
6 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
ISSUES
7 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following
methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?
72
64
57
48
32
29
25
19
20
27
34
39
58
60
64
71
8
9
9
12
10
11
11
10
Collecting signatures for
petition, letter
Legal demonstrations
Legal strikes
Boycott
Demonstrations without
permission
Strikes without permission
Blocking of major roads
Occupation of buildings or
enterprises
Acceptable Not acceptable No opinion
8 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it
be with?
42
36
37
40
43
41
3
4
5
15
17
17
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Nov 2011
March 2012
May 2012
The European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other DK/NA
9 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
How would you evaluate your attitude towards the following entities?
60
44
40
25
27
47
46
54
10
6
10
18
3
3
4
3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Russia
Poland
European Union
USA
Warm Neutral Cold DK/NA
10 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
Ukraine?
All mentioned issues
54
48
43
34
27
19
19
15
8
7
6
6
3
2
2
3
1
Unemployment
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Control over price growth
Social protection for poor
Political instability
Government incompetence
Crime
Relations with Russia
Rights to land ownership
Delay in salary/pension payments
Hryvnia devaluation
Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
Difficult to answer / no answer
11 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
Ukraine? March 2012
All mentioned issues
54
43
39
35
25
19
17
14
12
9
6
6
5
3
2
4
1
Unemployment
Low industry production
Corruption within the state bodies
Control over price growth
Social protection for poor
Political instability
Government incompetence
Crime
Relations with Russia
Delay in salary/pension payments
Hryvnia devaluation
Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Rights to land ownership
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Russian language status
Other
Difficult to answer / no answer
12 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
you personally?
All mentioned issues
59
49
36
23
21
14
13
12
9
8
8
8
5
4
1
7
3
Control over price growth
Unemployment
Social protection for poor
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Delay in salary/pension payments
Crime
Hryvnia devaluation
Government incompetence
Rights to land ownership
Political instability
Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Relations with Russia
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
Difficult to answer / no answer
13 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
you personally? March 2012
All mentioned issues
57
51
34
24
21
21
13
11
10
10
9
6
5
2
1
8
1
Control over price growth
Unemployment
Social protection for poor
Low industry production
Corruption within the state bodies
Delay in salary/pension payments
Crime
Government incompetence
Hryvnia devaluation
Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Political instability
Rights to land ownership
Relations with Russia
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
Difficult to answer / no answer
14 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
POLITICS
15 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Do you intend to vote in the parliamentary elections in 2012?
34
40
39
33
32
32
7
9
8
13
11
13
12
8
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Nov 2011
March 2012
May 2012
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA
16 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
How do you think the 2012 parliamentary elections will be?
3
4
3
15
16
16
36
35
37
27
29
20
19
16
24
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Nov 2011
March 2012
May
Absolutely free and fair Somewhat free and fair Somewhat not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know, no answer
17 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
CORRUPTION
18 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Have you personally in your life witnessed a situation when somebody who
occupies official position or has rich or influential relatives or friends committed a
crime and was not punished for that?
Yes
30%
No
61%
Difficult to answer / no
answer
9%
19 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Who bears responsibility when somebody who occupies an official position or has
rich or influential relatives or friends avoids punishment for a committed crime?
Authorities
52%
Both authorities and
citizens
32%
Difficult to answer / No
answer
11%
Citizens
5%
20 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Which authority bears responsibility when somebody who occupies an official
position or has rich or influential relatives or friends avoids punishment for a
committed crime?
30
20
15
13
6
4
2
10
Law-enforcement agencies
President
Government
Judiciary
Local authorities
Parliament
Other
Difficult to answer / No
answer
21 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
If you had to solve a problem in a state institution, would you personally give a
bribe to an official if you were sure that it would certainly help in solving your
problem?
Definitely yes
8%
Probably yes
24%
Probably no
19%
Definitely no
25%
DK/NA
24%
22 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
In the last 12 months, have you applied with a request to any of the following
services?
55
33
20
15
13
12
5
2
Medical and health services
establishments
Communal services
Educational establishments
Registration and licensing
services institutions
Police, including traffic police
Social services provision
institutions
Tax services institutions
Customs service and border
guard service
23 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
MAIN CORRUPTION INDEXES
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Extortion index Bribing index Effectiveness index Initiative index
Communal services 0.06 0.04 0.87 -0.03
Medical and health services establishments 0.25 0.28 0.85 0.03
Educational establishments 0.33 0.31 0.96 -0.01
Police, including traffic police 0.40 0.37 0.94 -0.04
Tax services institutions 0.16 0.14 1.00 -0.02
Social services provision institutions 0.06 0.05 0.87 -0.01
Registration and licensing services institutions 0.14 0.11 0.83 -0.02
Customs service and border guard service 0.19 0.19 1.00 0.00
MASS MEDIA
25 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
How many times per week do you access the Internet?
19
25
24
6
4
6
7
4
9
7
6
6
5
4
5
54
56
49
2
1
2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Nov 2011
March 2012
May 2012
Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA
26 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
SELF-PERCEIVED
SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS
27 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
What can you say about the financial status of your family?
11
11
12
31
31
30
38
36
41
15
17
14
3
3
2
0.4
1
1
1
May 2012
March 2012
Nov 2011
Need to save money for food
Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes
Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as a good suit,
a mobile phone or a vacuum cleaner
Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasing more
expensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator)
Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchases like
a car or an apartment
I can buy anything at any time
DK/NA
28 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS
29 IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
30
Gender
Male
45%
Female
55%
18-29
23%
30-49
35%
50+
42%
Age groups
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
31
EducationUniversity, higher
28%
General secondary
22%
Primary
2%
Vocational secondary
38%
Non-complete
secondary
5%
Non-complete higher
5%
Religion
Orthodox
77%Atheist
5%
Greek Catholic
6%
DK/NA
1%
Believe in God but don't
belong to any religion
9%
Other
2%
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
32
Sector of employment
Don't work
52%
Public non-government
sector
1%Private sector
29%
State sector
18%
Occupation
Student
4%
Housewife
8%
Unemployed
10%
Other
3%
Higher and medium
level executive
2%
Pensioner
31%
White collar
16%
Blue collar
24%
Farmer
2%
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
33
Language usually spoken at home
Other
0.5%
Ukrainian and other
language equally
1%
Ukrainian and Russian
equally
19%
Ukrainian
43%
Russian
37%
Ethnicity
Other
3%
Ukrainian
83%
Russian
14%
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
34
Membership in a political party or nongovernamental
organization (NGO)
Member of a party
3%
None
96%
Member of NGO
1%
West Ukraine
23% Center Ukraine
30%
South Ukraine
19%
East Ukraine
28%
REGIONS
Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk,
Khmelnytsky, Lviv, Rivne,
Ternopil, Volyn and
Zakarpattia oblasts
Donetsk and Luhansk
oblasts Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa
and the Autonomous Republic
of Crimea
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May-June 2012
Cherkasy, Chernihiv,
Kyiv, Kirovohrad,
Poltava, Sumy,
Vinnytsia and
Zhitomyr oblasts