Upload
juniper-miles
View
230
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Public Opinion– The distribution of the population’s beliefs
about politics and policy issues.Demography
– The science of population changes.Census
– A valuable tool for understanding population changes
– Required every 10 years by the Constitution
How do we know the will of How do we know the will of the people?the people?
How are polls conducted?How are polls conducted?
– Random Sampling: Polling that has been drawn from a population in such a way
that each time an item was selected, every item in the population had an equal opportunity to appear in the sample (race, age, gender, class…)
– Sampling Error: The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion
poll. +-%
– Needs to be a statistically significant sample size to be considered valid
The Role of Polls in American The Role of Polls in American DemocracyDemocracy
– Polls help politicians figure out public preferences.
– Does it make politicians think more about following the polls?
– Exit Polls Poll people leaving the voting booth used by the media to predict election day winners.
– The wording of questions makes a difference.
What Polls Reveal About AmericansWhat Polls Reveal About Americans– Americans don’t know much about politics.– Americans may know their basic beliefs, but not how
that affects policies of the government.
The Decline of Trust in The Decline of Trust in GovernmentGovernment
– Since 1964, trust in government has declined.– Effects of Vietnam and Watergate
What trends do demographers What trends do demographers observe?observe?
The Immigrant Society– Hispanics are the largest growing minority group
The Regional Shift– Decline of the Rust Belt, rise of
the Sun Belt– Compare the rise of California
and the fall of New York– Reapportionment: – The process of reallocating seats
in the House of Representatives every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census.
– Example, in 2010 Ohio lost 2 Congressional seats, Florida gained 2 seats
The Graying of America– Fastest growing age group is over 65, Baby
Boomers– Potential drain on Social Security– “Gray Power” controls American politics
How do Americans participate How do Americans participate in politics?in politics?
Political Participation:– All the activities used by citizens to influence
the selection of political leaders or the policies they pursue.
Conventional Participation– Voting in elections– Working in campaigns / running for office– Contacting elected officials
Types of ParticipationTypes of Participation2000 Election participation 82% watched the campaign on television 73% voted in the election 34% tried to influence others how to vote 10% put a sticker on their car 9% gave money to help a campaign 5% attended a political meeting 3% worked for a party or candidate
Is this true? 73% of people vote? – No, people lie
Protest as ParticipationProtest as Participation
– Protest: A form of political participation designed to achieve policy changes through dramatic and unconventional tactics.
– Civil disobedience: A form of political participation that reflects a conscious decision to break a law believed to be immoral and to suffer the consequences.
How few Americans vote?How few Americans vote? Americans vote at low rates compared to other developed
democracies 120/169 in voter turnout Voter turnout is defined = People voted/Total eligible to
vote (Not registered) out of the voting age population Trend of low voter turnout Average turnout in the US is about 67% for a presidential
election 40% for midterm elections 36% voter turnout for the 2014 Midterms
– The last time voter turnout was that low was 1942, when only 34% of voters cast ballots because many were oversees fighting WWII
World Comparison: vote to registration ratio, parliamentary or presidential elections
1 Australia 94.5%
2 Singapore 93.5 %
3 Uzbekistan 93.5 %
4 Liechtenstein 92.8 %
5 Belgium 92.5 %
6 Nauru 92.4 %
7 Bahamas 91.9%
8 Indonesia 91.5%
9 Burundi 91.4 %
10 Austria 91.3 %
15 Italy 89.8 %
19 South Africa 89.3%
33 Germany 85.4% 48 Norway 80.4 % 50 Israel 80.3% 53 Greece 79.9% 66 Iran 77.3% 76 UK75.2% 120 USA 66.5%
in Presidential Elections 142 Russia 58.4% 157 Nigeria 50.3%
US Presidential Voter TurnoutUS Presidential Voter TurnoutElections with over 80%, 1840, 1860, 1876, 18961964 – 69.3% 1980 – 41.3%1984 – 60.9%1988 – 40.5%1992 – 55.2%1996 – 49.1%2000 – 51.3%2004 – 55.3%2008 - 62.3%2012 - 57.5%
• Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote
• “Hapathy”= ignorant, happy people who don’t vote
Voter Turnout: Why is it so Voter Turnout: Why is it so low?low?
Voter Registration – Number one cause of low voter turnout– Must do it months ahead of an election– Progressive reform meant to limit voter fraud– Registration procedures differ from state to state.– What happens when you move?– Have you registered?– Where will you live in November of 2016?
“Motor-Voter” (1993) – National Voter Registration Act – Allowed people to register to vote while they get license– Attempted to improve turnout, but failed
World Comparison: Compulsory voting- Australia
System in which electors are obliged to vote in elections or attend a polling place on voting day.
If an eligible voter does not attend a polling place, he or she may be subject to punitive measures such as fines or community service.
22 countries have laws for compulsory voting and 11 of these 22 countries enforce these laws in practice.
Australia 20$ fine for the 1st offense, 50$ 2nd time, no fine for local elections
System can confer a high System can confer a high degree of political legitimacy degree of political legitimacy
The victorious candidate represents a majority of the population, not just the politically motivated individuals who would vote without compulsion
It becomes more difficult for extremist or special interest groups to get themselves into power or to influence mainstream candidates.
Under a non-compulsory voting system, if fewer people vote then it is easier for lobby groups to motivate a small section of the people to the polls and influence the outcome of the political process.
The outcome of an election where voting is compulsory reflects more of the will of the people (Who do I want to lead the country?) rather than reflecting who was more able to convince people to take time out of their day to cast a vote (Do I even want to vote today?).
Red-Compulsory voting, enforced. Dark Pink-Compulsory voting, not enforced. Orange-Compulsory voting, enforced only for men Light Pink- Compulsory voting, not enforced (only men Yellow-Historical: the country had compulsory voting in the past.
Other reasons for low turnoutOther reasons for low turnout Weekday, non-holiday voting, national elections are held on the
first Tuesday after the first Sunday in November Number of offices and elections too high, systemic to federalism
– Are you going to vote for your local city council member? Difficulty of Absentee Voting Weak political parties – less “get-out-the-vote campaigns Voter ID laws Determining suffrage is a state’s rights, federalism issue Recently, states have made it harder to vote
People who are destroying People who are destroying America- TeachersAmerica- Teachers
http://www.cc.com/video-clips/bf1ekb/the-colbert-report-people-who-are-destroying-america---teachers
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/otg9pc/purge-overkill
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/i73o7x/wizards-of-i-d----voter-i-d--laws
Why should a citizen vote?Why should a citizen vote?
– Some argue it is a rational choice to not vote.– Political Efficacy: The belief that one’s
political participation really matters.– Civic Duty: The belief the in order to support
democratic government, a citizen should always vote.
What factors correlate with higher voting rates?
1. Education – MOST IMPORTANT, more education=more voting
2. Age – 18-24 is the lowest, and 45 and up is the highest
3. Religious involvement4. Marital Status:
Married = more likely to vote.
6. Political Party or Union affiliation
7.Gender – men traditionally voted more, now women vote more
8.Two-party competition – more competitive elections have higher turnout-Traits are cumulative - possessing several adds up.
-Cross-cutting cleavages – individuals influenced by many factors, it is important when testing for this that variables are controlled
How has suffrage expanded How has suffrage expanded over time?over time?
1. Lifting of property restrictions (1830) – “universal manhood suffrage” gave voting rights to all white males, Jacksonian Democracy
2. Suffrage for African-Americans (1865-1964)1. 1865 - 15th Amendment – Voting Rights could not be denied
based on race
2. 1964 24th Amendment – banned poll tax
3. 1965 – Voting Rights Act of 1965 – federal law prohibited literacy tests, the federal government would enroll African American voters if states would not
Expanding SuffrageExpanding Suffrage
3. Women’s Suffrage (1920) – 19th Amendment gave women the right to vote, largest ever expansion of the franchise
4. 18-21 year-olds (1971) – 26th Amendment, sparked by Vietnam
How do Americans learn How do Americans learn about politics? about politics?
Political Socialization:– “…the process through which and individual
acquires [their] particular political orientation”
The Family-#1 influence in the US-Time & emotional commitment-Political leanings of children often mirror their parent’s leanings
– The Mass Media Generation gap in TV news viewing
– School / Education Used by government to socialize the young into the
political culture Education produces better jobs and a more positive
view of government
Why do people voter for a Why do people voter for a candidate?candidate?
Political Ideology:– A coherent set of beliefs about politics, public
policy, and public purpose.
Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives?– Currently about 37% conservative, 23% liberal,
40% moderate
Do People Think in Ideological Do People Think in Ideological Terms?Terms?
– Ideologues: think in ideological terms - 12% of the population
– Group Benefits: rely on party labels - 42% of the population
– Nature of the Times: current times are good or bad - 24% of the population
– No issue content: based on personalities - 22% of the population
How Americans Vote: How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's DecisionsExplaining Citizen's DecisionsParty Identification
– People generally vote for a party they agree with.
– Rise of candidate-centered politics has changed this view.
– Now many voters are individualistic.– Characteristics of each candidate have become
more important than party.
How Americans Vote: How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's DecisionsExplaining Citizen's Decisions
Policy Voting– Basing your vote choice on issue preferences.– Must know where they and the candidates stand on
issues and see differences between candidates.– Candidates are often ambiguous on the issues on
purpose.– The press tends to focus on the “horse race” not the
issues.– Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the
party primaries.
How Americans Vote: Explaining How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen’s DecisionsCitizen’s Decisions
Which party do people vote for Which party do people vote for most of the time ?most of the time ?
Democrats African Americans Most Hispanic groups Jews ------------- -------------
Women Labor Unions Teachers Post Office Workers The Working class Urban Young
Republicans Whites Cubans Religious groups, Evangelical Christians,
Catholics Men Business owners Police Officers Soldiers Affluent Americans Rural Old
In ConclusionIn Conclusion
Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action– We select our leaders, not policies.– We protest for specific policies, not against the
government.– Many Americans do not participate or are
informed about the political process.– There are many barriers to voting
How do elections affect How do elections affect public policy?public policy?
Mandate Theory of Elections– The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate
from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics if they win by a large margin.
– Best examples, FDR’s 1932 election and the New Deal and LBJ’s 1964 election and the Great Society
– Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do.
Federal electionsFederal elections Federal elections are always held in even years on the first
Tuesday in November after the first Sunday in November They are held every even year, never during an odd year Presidential elections are every 4 years House of Representatives 100% of the body goes up for
election every 2 years Senate elections are rotated so that 1/3 of the body is up for
election every 2 years There are no elections for federal judges or most government
employees (Post office workers, soldiers, accountants…)
State and Local electionsState and Local elections
These elections can vary greatly and do not always coincide with federal elections
Elections can be in odd yearsNot always held in NovemberAre there too many elections?Examples:
– Governors, mayors, state legislators, state and local judges, school boards, city council members, sheriff, …
What types of elections are What types of elections are there in the US?there in the US?
Three types of elections:– Select party nominees (primary elections)– Select officeholders (general elections)– Select options on specific policies (referendums)
ReferendumsReferendums
– Voters approve or disapprove proposed legislation.– Purest form of democracy in the American system– There is no such thing as a national referendum, only
state and local referendums– Often used for constitutional amendments.– Examples: gay marriage, marijuana legalization,
school bond issues, & tax measures– Sometimes used as a get out the vote measure to
draw loyal party voters to the polls (Anti-Gay marriage Amendments)
InitiativesInitiatives Petitions:
– Voters in some states propose legislation to be voted on.– Requires a specific number of signatures to be valid.– Can still be voted down by the people (referendum)– Only at state levels, no such thing as a federal initiative– Some argue not democratic because powerful interest
groups often have the resources to propose and execute– Example: medical marijuana in Florida, Morgan and
Morgan
RecallRecall
Voters vote to remove a politician before his term is up
Voter impeachmentExample: Wisconsin Governor Scott
Walker narrowly kept his officeOnly a state level election, never at the
federal level
How do you get elected How do you get elected President?President?
Nomination:– The official endorsement of a candidate for office
by a political party.– Republican & Democratic Party most important
endorsements, final two contest– Goal is to win the most delegates– 1st step to becoming President – Success requires momentum, money, and media
attention.
PrimariesPrimariesElections in which voters choose the nominee or
delegates pledged to the nominee.Started by turn of the century reformers to increase
democracy (less republican form of government) and take power away from party leaders to choose candidates
Most states use one of the forms of a primary.Frontloading is the tendency of states to hold primaries
early - New Hampshire is the first primary by state law.Generally primaries serve as elimination contests.
Primaries weaken Political Primaries weaken Political PartiesParties
Party leaders can’t control the candidates Multiple candidates can splinter the party
membership Delegates tend to be out of touch with average
voters on social and taxation issues Candidates need the extremists to win delegate
support Primary elections tend to be extremist campaigns,
while general elections tend to be more moderate Primary elections tend to only let more extreme
people vote
Types of PrimariesTypes of Primaries closed primary: voter can only vote for nominee if he/she is registered as party member, Florida open primary: voter doesn’t have to belong to a party to vote for that party’s nominee (still has to be
a registered voter), South Carolina Allows for crossover voting; a voter from one party votes for the other party’s
nominee Blanket (Jungle) primary: voters get a list of all candidates from all parties, top 2 win and appear on the general
election ballot Both winners could be from the same party California tried to implement this method, but deemed unconstitutional because it
violated the 1st Amendment and the freedom of political association
Caucus ElectionsCaucus ElectionsCaucus: closed meeting of party leaders/followers who Caucus: closed meeting of party leaders/followers who
decide the candidates/delegates (only the true believers decide the candidates/delegates (only the true believers attendattend
Organized like a pyramid from local precincts to the state’s convention.
Not used by many states.Iowa caucus is first and considered the most important.More of a republican than a democratic form of
government
Caucus gathers in local church…
Caucus called to order…
Dean supporters gather here… Kerry supporters there… Edwards supporters over here!
And they try to convince each other to join their groups, until the caucus official sorts it out!
2008 Schedule2008 Schedule
January 3—Iowa caucus January 5—Wyoming caucus (Republican only) January 8—New Hampshire primary January 15—Michigan primary January 19—Nevada Caucus & Republican South Carolina primary January 26—Democratic South Carolina primary January 29—Florida primary February 1 - February 2―Republican Maine caucus February 5 ― Super Tuesday: Primaries/caucuses for both parties in 19 states,
plus three Democratic-only caucuses and two Republican-only primaries
Evaluating the Primary and Evaluating the Primary and Caucus SystemCaucus System
Disproportionate attention to the early ones. Money plays too big a role. Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative. Do voters in New Hampshire and Iowa look like most Americans? New Hampshire and Iowa effectively get to narrow the field to a few
candidates The system gives too much power to the media. Reform: Should the US have a national primary day to take power
away from Iowa and New Hampshire? Super Tuesday functions as a Quasi-National Primary Day
The Convention Send-offThe Convention Send-off
– Once provided great drama, but now they are a basic formality - which means less TV time.
– Are still important to the party to get organized and motivated.
– Party platform: Statement of its goals and policies and general beliefs.
– Official nominations and candidate speeches.– Held every four years– Held in swing states
The Declining Coverage of The Declining Coverage of Conventions on Network TV Conventions on Network TV
Debate: Should the Electoral Debate: Should the Electoral College be abolished?College be abolished?
How does the Electoral How does the Electoral College work?College work?
Electoral College actually elects the President, not the voters
Founders wanted him chosen by the elite of the country (a republican instead of a democratic form of government)
States get to decide the method for selecting the electorsCandidates focus their campaigns on swing states, large
states that are in play and could be won by either person, like Ohio or Florida
– Each state has as many electoral votes as it does House of Representatives and Senators, 538 total Electoral votes
– DC gets 3 votes, 23rd Amendment– Winner of the state’s popular vote typically gets ALL the Electoral College votes
from the state, called the winner-take-all system. (48/50 states)– Nebraska and Maine sometimes split up their votes– Winner-Take-All system gives bigger emphasis to more populated states– Electors meet in December, votes are reported by the vice president in January.– Electors are pledged to vote for a person, but sometimes switch their vote
(faithless elector)– If no candidate gets 270 votes (a majority), the House of Representatives votes for
president, with each state getting ONE vote. The Senate would elect the VP.
Concerns With The Concerns With The Electoral CollegeElectoral College
-Disproportionate Voting Power Given to Different States
-The Winner-Take-All Method of Distributing Electoral Votes -Unbound Electors -House of Representatives Can Choose the President-Enforcement of a Two Party System -Presidency Can Be Won Without a Plurality of the Popular Vote: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000
-Disproportionate Voting Power Given to the States
Arguments for the Electoral Arguments for the Electoral CollegeCollege
contributes to the cohesiveness of the country by requiring a distribution of popular support to be elected president
enhances the status of minority interests,contributes to the political stability of the nation
by encouraging a two-party system, andmaintains a federal system of government and
representation.
Small State (Republican) Advantage? For example, the 12 smallest states today—Alaska,
Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming together account for only 17 (of 435) representatives in the House, or 3.9% of the total. However, in the Electoral College, thanks to the “Senate bump,” the same states account for 41 electoral votes, or 7.6% of the total of 538.
The Last Battle: The Electoral The Last Battle: The Electoral CollegeCollege
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUS9mM8Xbbw&safe=active
How it worksThe Trouble with the Electoral Collegehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=7wC42HgLA4k&safe=activeHow to deal with a tie?http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=sHEDXzOfENI&safe=active
CGP GrayCGP Gray
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUS9mM8Xbbw&safe=active
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI&safe=active
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wC42HgLA4k&safe=active
A Tale of Three ElectionsA Tale of Three Elections1800: The First Electoral Transition of Power
– No primaries, no conventions, no speeches– Newspapers were very partisan.– Campaigns focused on state legislatures - they were the ones
that chose the Electoral College.– People did not directly vote for the President– No majority in the Electoral College, so the House after many
votes picked Jefferson over Burr– Revolution of 1800– 12th Amendment
1896: Gold v. Silver1896: Gold v. Silver
– Democrat’s main issue: Unlimited coinage of silver.– William Jennings Bryan won the Democratic Party
nomination with the Cross of Gold speech at the convention, people did not vote in primaries yet
– Bryan was the 1st candidate to campaign nationwide– McKinley won the election, and the Republicans became the
party of power and broke the politics of paralysis of the age– Q. Why did the Northeast vote for McKinley? – A. No secret ballot, companies would fire you if you voted
for the wrong party
2000 Bush v. Gore2000 Bush v. Gore Election results hinged on Florida, where the
margin of victory triggered a mandatory recount.
Litigation in select counties started additional recounts, and this litigation ultimately reached the United States Supreme Court.
The Court's contentious decision in Bush v. Gore effectively awarding Florida's votes to Bush and granting him the victory.
Popular Vote: 50,456,002 Bush to 50,999,897 Gore
This marked the fourth election in U.S. history in which the eventual winner failed to win a plurality of the popular vote like the elections of 1824, 1876, and 1888
Money and CampaigningMoney and Campaigning
The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms– Federal Election Campaign Act (1974)
Created the FEC to administer campaign finance laws for federal elections in reaction to Nixon and Watergate.
Created the Presidential Election Campaign Fund. Provided partial public financing for presidential primaries
(matching funds). Provided full public financing for major party candidates in
the general election. Required full disclosure. Limited Contributions.
Buckley v. Valeo Buckley v. Valeo (1976)(1976)
Supreme Court struck down limits on personal campaign spending.
Spending your own money on your campaign is a free speech 1st Amendment right.
Money and CampaigningMoney and Campaigning– Hard Money
Money raised under the limits of campaign finance laws
– Soft Money Contributions (with no limits) used for party-building (voter
education, voter registration, & get out the vote efforts) expenses or generic party advertising
– McCain-Feingold Act (2002) banned soft money, increased amount individuals can contribute, and limited “issue ads.”
– Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) Case struck down the ban on ads by corporations and unions
on 1st Amendment grounds Led to the creation of 501 (C) (4)s, Super PACs
The Decline in Income Tax The Decline in Income Tax Check-Off Participation for Check-Off Participation for
Federal Financing of Federal Financing of Campaigns Campaigns
The Proliferation of PACsThe Proliferation of PACs
– Definition: Created by law in 1974 to allow corporations, labor unions and others to donate money to campaigns.
– As of 2004 there were 3,868 PACs.– PACs contributed over $258 million to congressional
candidates in 2002.– Donate to candidates who support their issue,
regardless of party affiliation– Not sufficient data that PACs “buy” candidates
Money and CampaigningMoney and Campaigning
Are Campaigns Too Expensive?– Fund raising takes up lots of time.– Incumbents do worse when they spend more money
because they need it when they face tough challengers.– The doctrine of sufficiency suggests that candidates need
just “enough” money to win, not necessarily “more.”– Most Political Scientists maintain big money in the US
political system is the #1 issue needed to be reformed
The Impact of CampaignsThe Impact of Campaigns
Campaigns have three effects on voters:– Reinforcement, Activation, Conversion
Mostly, they only reinforce & activate– Selective perception: pay attention to things we
agree with.– Party identification still has an affect– Incumbents start with a substantial advantage
Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic?– Campaigns are open to almost everyone.– Campaigns consume much time and money. – Campaigns promote individualism in American politics.
Do Big Campaigns Lead to an Increased Scope of Government?– Candidates make numerous promises, especially to state and
local interests.– Hard for politicians to promise to make government cuts.– Other countries have short campaigns - generally less than 2
months.– U.S. campaigns (especially for President) can last 18 months
or more.
In ConclusionIn Conclusion
Democracy and Elections– Voters can steer government only when there are
noticeable policy differences between the candidates.
– Candidates who vow to continue popular policies are more likely to win elections, bigger government.
– Policies affect voting behavior through retrospective voting.
– Bad economies make politicians nervous.