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Public Opinion
Public Opinion
EXPRESSIONS (not attitudes) of individuals regarding their political leaders and institutions as well as political and social issues.
Attitudes cannot be measured
American Public Opinion is…Uninformed:
Supreme Court is the most approved government body, at ~74% approval
~50% of Americans know what the Supreme Court’s main function is
American Public Opinion is…UninformedInconsistent
Illogical across issues
American Public Opinion is…UninformedInconsistentUnconnected
Most who oppose abortion support the death penalty
SurveySystematic interviews by trained, professional interviewers, who ask a standardized set of questions of a rather small number of randomly chosen citizens.
Public Opinion Polla relatively few individuals (the sample) are interviewed in order to estimate the opinions of a whole population.
The Theory of Probability
Sampling Error?
68%
95%
The Bell Curve
Representative Sampleeach individual in the population has an equal probability of being selected at random for inclusion in the survey
Straw PollsUnscientific surveys which make no attempt at using a representative (random) sample in their polling.
Think “Jaywalk All-Stars”-or local news
1936 Presidential Election
2004 Zogby Exit Polls
Push pollsPolls which deliberately feed respondents misleading information or leading questions in an effort to “push” them into favoring a particular candidate or issue.
Push PollsDo you support abortion?Do you support the extermination of
unborn children?
Do you favor Obama?Would you support Obama if he favored tax
increases?
Sampling IssuesBiased sample population
SELECTION BIAS is the most important issueInherent characteristics of a sample which lead it to
be unrepresentative of the population at large.Representative = mirror of the population
Pollsters should really focus on the voting population
Sampling IssuesBiased sample population
Most important issueSample Size
Quantity is good, quality is better
Sampling IssuesBiased sample population
Most important issueSample Size
Quantity is good, quality is betterWording of questions/response options
“framing can occur” as with push polls
Examples of Selection BiasOriginal Studies on Vegetarian Diets
Examples of Selection Bias
Original studies on Vegetarian DietsUnited Nations is terrible at peacekeepingCauses of War case studies
Actual Question
Actual Question
Use of PollsRachel Maddow (and others): 72% of
Foxnews viewers oppose the Civil Rights Act
Is this an accurate depiction?
Civil Rights Act (1964)Title I: Equal Application of Voter Registration
StandardsTitle II: No discrimination in “public
accommodations engaged in interstate commerce”Title III: Sub-National Governments cannot ban
access to public facilities based on race, gender, religion, ethnicity
Title IV: Attorney General can sue to enforce desegregation
Title V: Expanded powers of Civil Rights CommissionTitle VI: No discrimination by government agencies
that receive federal funding
Use of PollsOne provision of the act is vaguely
referenced
Consider this alternative:
Do you support the Civil Rights Act of 1964?Yes: 28%No: 72%
Would the conclusion “72% of Foxnews viewers oppose Civil Rights Act” be accurate?
Use of PollsNO!!!
We still don’t know the nature of the sampleNot all viewers were askedThe sample was not random (it was self-
selected)
72% of RESPONDENTS, not viewers
Other issuesMiddle Tendencies“Socially acceptable” responsesSome “pretend” to have an opinion
Public Affairs Act (filter question)
Consider this…A national public opinion poll of 1200
randomly selected respondents indicated:620 (51.7%) favor Obama580 (48.3%) favor McCain
This is a +/- 2.8% confidence intervalWho is leading???
The Leader is…No oneObama could be supported by as low as
48.9%McCain could be favored by as high as
51.1%
“Statistical dead heat”
Why does public opinion matter?Some argue government should reflect the
will of the peopleClinton very sensitive to polls (Somalia)Bush not so much
Media will mislead, misinterpret, “misunderestimate,” etc.Be skeptical of what is reported
Political Socializationthe learning process through which people acquire their political opinions, beliefs and values.
Political beliefs are acquired through a lifelong learning process.
Age-Cohort Tendency
Agents of Political Socialization
FamilySchoolsMass MediaPeersPolitical Institutions & Leaders
Churches
Public Opinion of…Race and ethnicityReligionRegionCity vs. countryParty Affiliation