Public Education in the 83rd Legislature

7/29/2019 Public Education in the 83rd Legislature

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January 28, 2013

United Methodist WomensLegislative Conference


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Public Education in the 83rdLegislative Session

The state budget

School finance challenges andopportunities

Educational need

The potential impact of litigation

2 Moak, Casey & Associates


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The State Budget



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The Recovering Economy

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Population growth

8% of population 19% of growth

Job growth Employment above pre-recession levels

Texas unemployment rate down to 6.1%


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Major Tax Revenue Sources, AllFunds,2012-2013 Biennium

Moak, Casey & Associates5

Revenue Source

CertificationGrowth

Estimate

New BREGrowth

Rate

Sales Tax 10.3% 22.4%

Motor Vehicle Sales Tax 13.3% 30.2%

Franchise Tax 4.9% 18.7%

Natural Gas Production 24.8% 41.5%Oil Production 1.5% 78.4%

All Taxes 8.6% 22.0%


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Improved State Sales TaxCollections


$1,600.0

$1,650.0

$1,700.0

$1,750.0

$1,800.0

$1,850.0

$1,900.0

$1,950.0

$2,000.0

$2,050.0

$2,100.0

1-Year Moving Average Sales Tax Collections

2009

2012


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Projected Ending Balances(in thousands)


General RevenueFund

EconomicStabilization

Fund

Original BRE Forecast 8-31-13Balance ($4,273,557) $9,405,307

Previous Forecast 8-31-13 Balance $1,605,546 $7,320,728

New Forecast 8-31-13 Balance $8,845,531 $8,065,362

New Forecast 8-31-15 Balance Approx.$5,500,000*

$11,756,442

Assumes House version of General Appropriations Act as filed.Senate version spends about $174 million less than House.


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Property Value Growth


Significant growth ahead Residential

Oil and gas

Refinery and energy growth

Property value growth offsets cost of enrollmentgrowth and reduces state costs


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2012-13 SupplementalAppropriations


Agency2013

Supplemental

Texas Education Agency ReversePayment Delay

$1.750

Texas Education Agency Shortfall* 0.300Health and Human ServicesCommission

3.500

Department of Aging and DisabilityServices 1.000

Other 0.200

Subtotal $6.750Amounts in billions, and represent all funds other than federal.* Result of overestimating savings from payment delay. Does not includeother supplemental needs.


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Education Is Not the Only Crisis


Water $2 billion loan program under consideration

Transportation

$4 billion request

Healthcare

Rising costs for current and future biennium

Decisions relative to Medicaid will influence cost

requirements


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State Spending Limit


Pay-as-You Go Limit (Art. III, Sec. 49a) Requires Comptroller to certify appropriations

4/5ths vote required to override failure to certify

Limitation on the Growth of Appropriations (Art.VIII, Sec. 22)

Applies to appropriations from state taxes notdedicated by the Constitution

Limits increases to growth in total personal incomein the state Applies to about $70 billion of current GR budget

Can be overridden with majority vote


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School Finance Challenges andOpportunities



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School Finance Challenges

Lack of interest in working on finance issueswithout Supreme Court decision

Lack of certainty over relationship betweenstudent learning and educational investment

We dont know what to do

Texas schools are doing well enough



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Wait for the Courts?

Courts unlikely to provide solution, onlyindicate whether the current system is or isntconstitutional

School finance challenges are on-going, long-term work should be constant andincremental



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Does Money Matter?

Performance

Measure

Current Law

# Districts # ADA # WADA

WADA

Ratio

Revenue /

WADA% Satisfactory all 9th grade EOCs

1,000 ADA



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We Dont Know What to DoSec. 42.007. EQUALIZED FUNDING ELEMENTS. (a) TheLegislative Budget Board shall adopt rules, subject to

appropriate notice and opportunity for public comment, for thecalculation for each year of a biennium of the qualified fundingelements, in accordance with Subsection (c), necessary toachieve the state policy under Section 42.001.

(b) Before each regular session of the legislature, theboard shall, as determined by the board, report the equalizedfunding elements to the commissioner and the legislature.

(c) The funding elements must include:

(1) a basic allotment for the purposes of Section42.101 that, when combined with the guaranteed yield

component provided by Subchapter F, represents the cost perstudent of a regular education program that meets all mandatesof law and regulation;

(2) adjustments designed to reflect the variation inknown resource costs and costs of education beyond the controlof school districts;



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We Dont Know What to Do

LBB Studies have not taken place

Interim Committees prior to last two legislativesessions have not provided clearrecommendations

2003 Study indicated need for additionalinvestment

Studies for litigation by various experts agreeon need for investment



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Texas Schools are Doing WellEnough

Although TAKS scores improved over time,new assessment scores proving significantchallenge for high school students

Although disaggregated NAEP scores are ator above average, overall scores show needfor improvement

SAT, ACT show need for growth



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Educational Need



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Cumulative Exit-Level TAKS Test Passing Rates (2006-2010)

Compared to 2012 STAAR Results for 9th Grade*(by year of First Attempt, All Tests Taken)

*EOCs include Algebra I, English I Reading, English I Writing, Biology and World Geography



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TAKS PROGRAM Enrolled Grade Level

Subject Area Tested 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Reading/Eng. Lang. Arts *

Mathematics *

Writing

Science *

Social Studies *

* = Test must be passed for graduation.

STAAR PROGRAM Enrolled Grade Level EOC Tests**

Subject/Courses Tested 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Reading/Eng. I, II, III * * *, ***

Writing / Eng. I, II, III * * * ***

Mathematics/Algebra I,

Geometry, Algebra II * * *, ***

Science/Biology, Chemistry,

Physics

* * *

Soc. Studies/World Geog.,

World History, US History * * *

* = Performance must be at/above minimum level to contribute to cumulative scores in each of the four core areas.

**EOC tests are taken by pre-9th

grade students if they are completing the relevant courses for high school credit.

***For Recommended Plan, students must achieve Level II: Satisfactory) on Algebra II and English III Reading and

Writing tests; for Distinguished/Advanced Plan, students must perform at Level III: Advanced on these two tests.

November 2012Moak, Casey & Associates21


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Figure 30. % of Points Needed to Reach VariousPerformance Standards on STAAR ExamsSource: TEA Raw Score Conversion Tables. Information subject to change for future administrations based on post-equating of live data following each administration.

October 2012Moak, Casey & Associates22

2011-12 & 2012-13

Standard

2013-14 and 2014-15

Standard

2015-16 and beyond

Final

Recommended

Subject Min. Sat. Adv. Min. Sat. Adv. Min Sat. Adv.

English I Reading

(paper) 48% 54% 82% 55% 61% 82% 59% 64% 82%

English I Reading

(online) 46% 52% 80% 54% 57% 80% 57% 63% 80%

Writing I 60% 65% 92% 65% 69% 92% 68% 73% 92%

Algebra I 31% 37% 78% 44% 50% 78% 57% 63% 78%Biology 31% 37% 83% 44% 50% 83% 56% 61% 83%

World Geography 40% 46% 84% 53% 57% 84% 65% 69% 84%


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Relationship between Performance and

Percent Economically Disadvantaged


R = 0.5736

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80%EconomicDisadvatnaged

% Commended - Math

2010-11 % Economic Disadvantaged vs. %

Commended - Math

Districts > 1,000 ADA

R = 0.6097

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100%EconomicDisadvatnaged

% At or Above Criterion - SAT/ACT

2010-11 % Economic Disadvantaged vs. % At or Above

Criterion - SAT/ACT

Districts > 1,000 ADA


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The potential impact of litigation



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Constitutional Provisions


Two provisions of the Texas Constitution are at the centerof school finance litigation. The first, Article VII, section 1the education clause-provides:

A general diffusion of knowledge being essential tothe preservation of liberties and rights of the people,it shall be the duty of the Legislature to establishand make suitable provision for the support andmaintenance of an efficient system of public freeschools.

TEX. CONST. art. VII 1. The second, Article VIII, section 1-e, provides:

No State ad valorem taxes shall be levied upon any

property within this State.


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Litigation Timing


Six groups have filed Closing of evidence expected January 31

Closing remarks February 4, possible oral rulingfrom the bench

Written order expected late February / EarlyMarch

Appeal (potentially directly to Supreme Court)

Supreme Court Decision - late 2013 to early 2014 If the plaintiffs are successful, legislative

response potentially during special session prior

to 2014-15 or during the 2015 regular session


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Amanda Brownson, Ph. D.

Dee Carney

Curtis Culwell, Ed. D.

Chris Grammer

Bob Popinski

Larry Throm

Maria Whitsett, Ph.D.Joe Wisnoski

Associates

Lynn M. Moak

Daniel T. CaseyPartners

Thomas V. Alvis Ph. D.

Larry Groppel Ed. D.

Kathy Mathias

Mary McKeown-Moak, Ph. D.

Alicia Thomas, Ph. D.Consultants

Susan Moak

Kari RuehmanAdministrative Staff

400 West 15th Street, Suite 1410, Austin, Texas 78701-1648

Ph. (512) 485-7878 Fax (512) 485-7888

www.moakcasey.com

January 29, 2013Moak, Casey & Associates27

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Public Education in the 83rd Legislature