Public education in Metropolitan Lima: In danger of extinction?

Ricardo CuencaIEP Institute of Peruvian Studies

SIEP Peruvian Society for Educational Research

Contents

1. Metropolitan Lima: a new city2. Research questions, hypothesis and

objectives3. Mapping of private schools in

Metropolitan Lima4. Outlook for private schools in

Metropolitan Lima5. Future of public schools in

Metropolitan Lima

Metropolitan Lima: a new city

Demographic characteristicsEconomic characteristics

Metropolitan Lima: a new city

Lima: Demographic characteristics Lima, Peru’s capital,

is the second-largest desert city in the world after Cairo

The estimated population in 2010 was 9,160,384 inhabitants (28% of total)

The area is 2,811.65 Km² (0.2% of the country)

Population density is 19.3 inhabitants per Km2

Lima: Economic characteristics Real monthly

average per-capita income in Metropolitan Lima is 58% higher than in

other urban areas 72% higher than in

rural areas2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Rural Other urbanMetropolitan Lima

Research questions, objectives and hypothesis

Research questions

What is the future of public schools in Metropolitan Lima?

Who is demanding private basic education in Lima?

What is the quality of private schools in Metropolitan Lima?

Who would be the future users of public schools in Lima?

Hypothesis

Demand for public basic education services in Metropolitan Lima could be reduced to the most excluded families, in a scenario in which the supply of private education

increases, despite the quality of the service

economic growth is sustained family size remains the same (or

decreases)

Objectives

Analyze the future situation of public schools in Metropolitan Lima in light of the economic and socio-demographic changes in the country project the enrollment rate in primary education

in private schools in Metropolitan Lima identify relationships between poverty levels in

districts and the existence of low-performing private schools

discuss the role of public schools in light of the expansion of private education

Mapping of private schools in Metropolitan Lima

Location of schoolsCharacteristics of schoolsQuality of education

Location of schools – I

Location of schools – II The majority of schools in Lima are private The higher the income, the larger the number of

private schools The lower the income, the greater the demand for

private schools

Cieneg

uilla

Pach

acamac

Lima

Lurin

Chaclaca

yoRim

ac

Barran

co

La Vict

oria

San Ju

an de M

iraflo

resCom

as

Villa M

aria D

el Tri

unfo

Villa El

Salvad

or

Magdale

na Del

Mar

San M

artin de P

orres

Magdale

na Vieja

Jesus M

aria

La Molin

a

Santia

go de S

urco

Miraflo

res0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

0510152025303540

Private Public Poverty

Characteristics of schools – I

Private schools are “smaller” (student enrollment)

San Isi

dro

Jesus M

aria

La Molin

a

Magdale

na Del

Mar

San M

iguel

Barran

coBreñ

aLim

a

Chaclaca

yo

San M

artin de P

orres

Los Olivo

s

Indep

enden

ciaCom

as

Villa El

Salvad

or AteLu

rin

Villa M

aria D

el Tri

unfo

Carabay

llo

Pach

acamac

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Privada Pública

Characteristics of schools – II

The number of teachers is slightly higher in private schools

LimaAn

con Ate

Barra

ncoBreña

Carab

ayllo

Chacl

acayo

Chorr

illos

Ciene

guillaCo

mas

El Agu

stino

Indep

enden

cia

Jesus

Maria

La Moli

na

La Vic

toriaLin

ce

Los Oliv

os

Luriga

nchoLur

in

Magdale

na Del

Mar

Magda

lena V

ieja

Miraflor

es

Pacha

camac

Puente

PiedraRim

ac

San Borj

a

San Isi

dro

San Jua

n de L

uriga

ncho

San Jua

n de M

iraflo

res

San Lu

is

San Mart

in de

Porre

s

San Migu

el

Santa

Anita

Santia

go de

Surco

Surqui

llo

Villa

El Sal

vador

Villa

Maria D

el Triu

nfo0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Publica Privada

Quality of education – I

The quality of private education is not uniform

Chacla

cayo

Pach

acamac

Surquillo

Villa El

Salvad

or

Caraba

ylloRim

ac

San Ju

an de L

urigan

cho

Comas

Breña

San M

artin de P

orres

Los Olivo

s

Lurig

anch

o

Santa

Anita

Jesus M

aria

Magdale

na Del

Mar

Santia

go de S

urco

Miraflo

res

San Borj

a0

0.51

1.52

2.53

3.54

4.5

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

index of household income % of students tested at Level 2

Quality of education – II

Private education is of higher quality in wealthier districts

Chaclaca

yo

Pach

acamac

Surquillo

Villa El

Salva

dor

Caraba

ylloRim

ac

San Ju

an de L

urigan

cho

Comas

Breña

San M

artin de P

orres

Los Olivo

s

Lurig

anch

o

Santa

Anita

Jesus M

aria

Magdale

na Del

Mar

Santia

go de S

urco

Miraflo

res

San Bo

rja0

0.51

1.52

2.53

3.54

4.5

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

index of household income % of students tested at Level 2

Outlook for private schools in Metropolitan Lima

Increase in supply of private educationSustained economic growthFamily size

Increase in supply of private education Only for primary education…

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

2008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

20192020

2021 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Private Public

Sustained economic growth

The districts with the greatest economic growth used to be the poorest … that trend continues

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

growth 04-09 population

Family size

The number of family members could drop from 4.5 to 3.5

20012002

20032004

2005200

6200

72008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

20192020

20212

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

# of members projection

Future of public schools in Metropolitan Lima

Principal findingThe “dream” of private educationLack of interest in public schoolsEducation for human capitalFinal questions

Principal finding

If this scenario holds true, the analysis shows a high probability of: displacement of public education by

private education concentration of public education among

the city’s most excluded groups

The “dream” of private education Quality of teachers (associated with higher

salaries) Parental control and oversight Better infrastructure and equipment

(technology) Inefficiency of the State compared to private

institutions High levels of corruption in public

administration Profitability of investment in private

education

Lack of interest in public schools Exceptional measures take the place

of regular policies “Managing scarcity” in education

policies for public schools Poverty is not offset by high-quality

education in public schools “Free” public education?

Education for human capital

The rise of the knowledge production and information management in modern societies

The primacy of effectiveness and profitability as criteria

The educational system must allocate and redistribute resources effectively if it is to increase its educational capital (individual)

Final questions

To whom will schools belong in the future? Families? The State? Private enterprise?

What roles will the State play? What will happen to its traditional role of “taking care” of citizens?

Have we reached the end of one form of organization of the educational system?

Is the private school the future of urban education?

Lima: a city of constrasts

¡Thank you very much!

Ricardo CuencaIEP Institut of Peruvian Studies

SIEP Peruvian Society for Educational Research