Repo:t No. 5592-GUA

GuyanaA Framework for Economic Recovery

May 15, 1985

Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the world Bank

Thfis document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization..

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit: Guyana Dollar

The Guyana dollar floated with the pound sterl'ng from July 1972 toOctober 1975, when the Government announced its linkage to the USdollar at G$2.55 = US$1.00. A new rate of G$3.00 = US$1.00 wasestablished on June 1, 1981. On January 11, 1984, it was adjusted toG$3.75 = US$1.00. Since October 6, 1984, it is adjusted weekly withrespect to movements ia a basket of currencies consisting of the PoundSterling, the Deutsche Mark, the French Franc, the Netherlands Guilderand the Japanese Yen.

October 1975 US$1.00 = G$2.55U G$1.00 = US$0.392June 1, 1981 US$1.00 = G$3.000 G$1.00 = USS0.333January 11, 1984 US$1.00 = G$3.750 G$1.00 = US$O.267

Annual Average

1970 US$1.00 = G$2.00U G$1.U0 = US$U.5001971 US$1.00 = G$1.981 GeLVO0 = US$0.5051972 US$1.00 = G$2.087 G$1.00 = US$0.4791973 US$1.00 = G$2.127 G$1.00 = US$0.4701974 US$1.00 = G$2.229 G$1.00 = US$0.4491975 US$1.00 = G$2.355 G$1.00 = US$0.4251976-80 US$1.00 = G$2.550 G$1.00 = US$0.3921981 US$1.00 = G$2.8125 G$1.00 = US$0.3551982-83 US$1.00 = G$3.000 G$1.00 = US$0.3331984 US$1.00 = G$3.8258 G$1.00 = US$0.261

FOR OFFMCIAL USE ONLYTITLE: Guyana - A Framework for Economic Recovery

COUNTRY: Guyana

REGION: Latin America and the Caribbean

SECTOR: Country Economic

ABSTRACT: Following three years of rapid decline in gross domestic product(GDP) Guyana's economic performance in 1984 exhibitedconsiderable improvement in terms of growth. Compared to the 10%fall in real GDP in 1983, the growth rate is estimated at about5% in 1984 (based on 1977 prices), although the absolute level ofGDP was still below that attained in the early 1970s. As aresult of drastic restraints on imports and non-payment ofexternal interest obligations, the balance of payments currentaccount deficit continued to improve although this was offset bya rapid build-up of external arrears. Moreover, despite someadvances in production, public sector finances continued to beweak in 1984, particularly because of low capacity utilization inthe leading public sector corporations, increases in publicsector wages in 1984 and the compounding of domestic interestpayments. As part of a Bank/IDA supported structural adjustmentprogram, the Government implemented a number of policies during1981-84 that included energy resource development, establishmentof institutions for export promotion and pricing (especially withrespect to electricity and rice).

The main tasks ahead include:

(a) reducing the size of the public sector deficit throughexpenditure controls at the Central Government level and improvedperformance of the leading public corporations;

(b) improving Guyana's currency adjustment system, with the objectiveof enhancing the profitability of domestic export industries andarresting the rapidlv expanding parallel market;

(c) reducing price distortions by limiting the number of commoditiessubject to official price controls to those that are highlyessential in nature with low elasticities of demand;

(d) promoting exports, especially through the removal of obstacles toprivate initiative and the further provision of direct assistanceto exporters of non-traditional commodities; and

(e) rescheduling of external debt which can only take place after anagreement on an IMF program.

The medium- and long-term economic prospects of Guyana dependlargely on the inflow of substantial external resources at highlyconcessional terms. If external resources are made available ona timely basis and the Government undertakes relevant policyadjustments, the economy should be able to grow at about 5% p.a.in real terms during the next decade.

This dooument has a resrited distibunon and may be used by recipients only in the performance oftheir official duties Its contents may not otherwise be discbsed without World Bank authonzation.

This report is based on the work of an IBRD economic mission toGuyana in January/February 1985. The mission consisted of Mr. James Sackey(mission leader), Messrs. Roger Robinson, Feridon Gharib, andMs. Maria Benito. Mr. Alan Slusher (CDB) provided assistance to themission on the analysis of the monetary sector. The UNDP resident missionin Guyana assisted the mission in compiling the technical assistance list.The report was reviewed and discussed with the Government in May 1985.

GUYANA

A Framework for Economic Recovery

Table of Contents

Page No.COUNTRY DATA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ......................... i - vi

I. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ....................... o ............. 1A. Background .................... .............. . 1B. Recent Economic Developments .................... 2C. The Source of the Economic Crisis ............... 7

II. MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK FOR RECOVERY 9A. Government Response to Crisis ................... 9B. Recent Economic Reforms ..... .. ..... 11C. Macro-Aspects of Economic Recovery .14

III. SECTORAL ADJUSTMENT POLICIES 17A. Policy Issues in the Leading Sectors . ... 17B. Diversification and Role of Private Sector 24

IV. ROLE OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR ................. 29A. Role of the Central Government ......-...------ 30B. Public Enterprises: State as an Entrepreneur 35

V. LEVEL AND ALLOCATION OF INVESTMENT . . 39A. Overview of Investment Needs . . 39B. The 1985 Investment Program . . .41

VI. EXTERNAL TRADE AND FINANCE ... 45A. External Trade Policy and Issues . . .45B. Management oi External Debt .. 49

VII. DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS ... 52A. Background. .. 52B. Sectoral Targets ... . .52

C. Inflows of External Capital .... 56

ANNEX I: ONGOING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM

ANNEX II: PROPOSED TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE LIST: 1985

ANNEX III: STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM: MAJORPOLICY ACHIEVEMENT

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

MAP (IBRD 1168R1)

GUYANA

A Framework for Economic Recovery

Table of Contents (Cont'd)

Table PageNo. No.

1. Real Growth of GDP by Sectors ................................ 22. Investment and Savings ............................ .......... 33. Outstanding Domestic Credit ............. ................... 44. Balance of Payments ....... ; 65. Selected Macroeconomic Indicators ........................... 116. Official Exchange Rates and Trade Weighted Index ............. 137. Bauxite - Index of Output and Earnings .......... * ............ 178. Capacity and Output of Bauxite Industry ........ .............. 189. Share of Public Sector in Consumption/Investment .. .* 2910. Public Sector Savings ....... ................................. 3011. Measures of Tax Effort . ... ................................... 3112. Central Government Expenditures .............................. 3313. Performance of Public Corporations ..... ...................... 3614. Sectoral Allocation of Public Sector Capital Expenditures .... 4015. External rrade Indicators ........ ............................ 4616. Indicators of External Reserve Position ...................... 4917. Average Terms of New Commitments, 1970-84 ................. ... 5018. External Payment Arrears . .................................... 5019. Selected Macroeconomic Targets ...................... 5320. External Capital Requirements ...... .......................... 56

Poeg I of 2 pages

COUNITR DATA - OUTAHA

AREA POPULATION DENSITY

214.370 km72

773 mlle ion t.l_19931 3.7 per hm2

Not. of Growthe 1 (from 1370 to 1953)

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1964) HEALTH 1981

Crude Birth fots (per 1.000) 21.3 Populatlon per physicIle 7350

Crude Dueth Rate (per 1.000) 7.6 Pepultlon per huspitel bad 200

intfet Mortality (per 1.000 lle births 19821 45.0

INCOME OISTRIWUTION DISTRIiOITION OF LAND OWIEISHIP

S of national Incmee, iigobet quintile S owned by top 20l1 a owners

lowest quintile . S owned by buttoo 102 of owners

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER £119603 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITT (16901

S of popaletlee - erbho 35.4 S of populatlen - urban 90.3

- rural 71.8 - rural 53.6

NUTRITION EDUCATION C1360)

Caloril Isteho as I of reqelronents 117.0 Adalt literacy rate Z 31.3

Per capita protels lotako 65.0 PrImary school enrollment S 67.0

CNP PER CAPITA Is 196 3

1a, USSs20

CROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1354 (..t-) ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (S. constant 2977 pricesl

US. MI.. * 1370-75 1375-SO s36l-63 1394 (Proi.i

Cur at Nark.t Prices 396.8 200.0 5.2 0.3 -6.2 6.4

Cress Dowmstic lov-stment 101.3 25.7 10.6 -20.4 -7.3 -23.3

Cr0ss Notional Sawings -11.5 -2.3 19.1 -15.4 3.7 -Z5.3

Current Account Balancs -66.1 -21.7

Esports of Goods. UFS 230.5 56.0 -2.3 -3.5 -12.3 -2.7

Imports of CGods, UFS 301.1 7539 3.2 -7.6 -14.1 6.1

OUTPUT IN 1924 (.st.)

Value Added Labor ForcebI V.A. Per Workerti

US$ MIn. S o0ee USs *

Agrlcelturs 30.7 24.6 90.6 33-. 1.354 63.2

lodustry dj 91.0 2z.7 129.3 44.5 12568 60.2

Servle-s 166.3 50.7 58.2 22.7 3.679 188.3

Totel/Averrge 523.9 200.0 268.1 200.0 2.354 100.0

PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCE

CS millions S( of GOP)

1962 2836 1984 Ent. 1382 1363 1384

Cerrent Receipts (Central Coot.) 547 566 600 37.6 36.9 35.3

Current Expenditere (Central Coat.) 765 496 11S9 sz.9 61.6 60.2

Current SurpIs-s/Dfic3t (Central Go@t.l -226 -330 -559 -15.1 -22.7 -32.9

Current Surplus/Oaficit (Public Sector) -287 -36 -656 -19.6 -26.7 -36.6

Capital Expenditures C(Pblic Sector) 399 369 428 27.6 25.4 24.6

Esternal Assistance a Borrowing Cnati 144 154 70 20.0 10.5 4.1

af The Per Capita CUP eatlmtto Is at 1953 market prices, as calculated In the 1923 Werld Atlas. All other

conversions to dollars In thls table ore at the a-erege sChanga rats preoaillug during the perlod cowered.

bh 1960 Total Labor Forcss ea*omlayed are allocated to sector of their norml occepatlos. (Sources ILO)

d/ Sncleddes m1ing and quarrying and construction.

met available

not *ppil cble

Pag 2 of 2 pages

COUNRTR DATA - GU?AMA

NONE?, CREDIT and PRICES 157 3S76 IS77 ItS7 3 1373 1350 t6l 1l32 1933 1384

(SI Million eetetasdimg ..d period)

Moesy and ua-si Nosey 420 429 535 530 653 754 eeI 1.104 1,317 1.526

Bask Credl te Public Sector 156 413 603 677 573 1,220 1,492 2,102 2,110 3,323

*B.k Credlt to Prlvate Settr 117 121 113 121 165 136 262 313 377 447

Ptercestage ofr sede Numbers)

Motey asn Oueai Mosey as S of SOP 35.3 37.5 47.8 45.5 43.2 50.0 55.5 75.3 30.5 3s.$

Samerel Price Index (137) - 1IS) 146.7 161.7 179.1 214.6 247.4 279.1 340.0 306.1 436.3 524.50/

Aensul percentage chauges Ins

rGasral Price Indsx 6.0 5.7 50.3 19.5 15.6 12.3 22.1 33.3

Bask credit te Pubile Sector 11.6 164.7 45.0 12.3 23.0 33.7 22.3 40.3 25.3 22.8

Bask credit te Private Setter -7.0 2.5 -5.6 7.1 34.7 20.3 33.7 19.5 z204 15.6

BALANCE OP PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE Is30-54)

1352 1535 1354 US, 41s. I

(miiiions USI)

Segar 25.2 32.2

E3p-rts of Goods. NFS 264 225 230 RICe 50.6 9.3

I-porte of Seods, NFS -346 -324 -301 Orled Ssumits 74.6 3.2

Resoucce Cap (deficit * -I -2 -33 -71 Calclcd Bauxite 233.7 26.7

Aiumina 43.2 6.1

Istereat aymete. aset) -24 -24 -16 All Other Commdities 113.0 13.3

Dtber Fecttr Parymts (sat) -19 -5 -4 Total 613.1 100.0

Not Transfers 5 I 3

Biasce on Cerreet Acce-t -133 -127 -36 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 3S: 1954

Gross Dioebreesets 77 46 27 USt His.

AmortIastios -25 -21 -is

Not P-biIc Dlabresmete 54 25 45 Pubile Debt. mcc. Guarasteed 652.5

Other Capltal (sell -14 -65 -C6 Mno-GCaranteod Private Debt

Cspital Acceent Selance 46 -61 -5S Total Outetnedlog A Disbursed 662.5

Overall Balsece 3 -150 -142 DEBT SERtICE RATIO for 5364 b

Cbsege Is Met Reserves -20 -13 ..

Cbasgo is Arrears 113 201 175

Public Debt. Imcl. Gaerestead 13.5

groas Reervees (end-yor) . . ee-Gareeled Privat Debt

Met Reserves teed-year) T. . et. Ousttandieg 5 Dsabursed 13.5

RATE OF EXCHANGE B8Ro/IDA LENDING, DECE1BER 31, 1354

US$ Mis.

Oct.1375 - June 1, 131

USt1.0 - 652.55 uetstansdlg 6 OlDbursed 30.1

051.00 - US80.332 Ucdlobhused 14.1

Outstaidleg lel. Usdlabursed 104.2

June 1. 1951 - Dec. 1363

US$1 .00 - 963.00

cCI.00 - USO0.333

Average, 1354

USe1.00 - 653.521

051.00 - USe0.261

0/ Jlse. 1354 (averege of pariod).bi Ratio of e-bt Soreits to Experts of Geode aod lieu-Factor Servicse.

set available

.et applicable

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Economic Overview

i. Economic developments in Guyana during the 1970s were mixed.During the first half of the decade, real GDP grew by about 4% per annum asa result of the rapid growth in Government expenditures and favourableprices for Guyana's major export commodities. In contrast, during 1975-80,there was a rapid economic decline resulting in about 5% p.a. drop in percapita income, 2% p.a. drop in consumption and 10% p.a. drop ininvestment. The economic deterioration was precipitated by the poor outputperformance of the two main productive sectors-bauxite and sugar-exacerbated by a dramatic worsening of the terms of trade as a result offalling sugar prices and further oil price increase in 1979. During1975-80, the resource gap averaged 12% of GDP, compared to less than 2%during 1971-75, resulting in a rapid deterioration in the balance ofpayments.

ii. The economic crisis of the second half of the 1970s persistedthrough 1981-83, with output in 1983 approximately 18% lower than the levelin 1979. There were significant declines in output in the bauxite andsugar sectors because of technical, labor and managerial problems. Theeconomy, however, experienced a substantial recovery in output in 1984,primarily as a result of improvements in bauxite production. The level ofGDP in real terms in 1984 was, nevertheless, still below the levelsattained during the early 1970s. The rate of price increases, as measuredby the official consumer price index (CPI), accelerated in 1984 to 20%,compared to 12% in 1983 as a result of the currency devaluation in Januaryand subsequent weekly adjustments initiated in October. The official CPI,however, underestimates the rate of inflation as some commodities used forits compilation are either price contrclled or only available at theparallel market at substantially higher prices. The deterioration of thereal economy in Guyana during 1981-83, unaccompanied by timely policies toreduce demand, has resulted in a significant worsening of public sectorfinances. Public sector savings have been negative since 1981, and theoverall deficit widened from 13% of GDP in 1978 to 60% in 1984. Until1981, the current account deficit of the Central Government was offset bythe s-.rpluses of the public corporations. However, the decline ininternational demand for the output of Guyana's two main publiccorporations in the bauxite and sugar sectors, compounded by low domesticproduction, has meant a substantial decline in revenues and large operatingdeficits. To finance the public sector deficits the Government hasresorted to short- to medium-term domestic borrowing mainly from thebanking system, with resultant dramatic increases in interest payments inrecent years.

iii. Despite a fall in exports during 1980-84 of 44%, the resource gaphas widened by only 14%; the reason is a substantial decline in importsduring the period. The current account deficit in 1984 represented 26% ofGDP, compared to 22% in 1980. The current account deficits of the balanceof payments have been financed by concessional capital inflows and theshortfalls have been accounted for by the accumulation of external

- ii -

arrears. At the end of 1984, Guyana's external arrears amounted to US$625million or 158% of GNP. Guyana's medium- and long-term external debt as ofDecember 31, 1984 was US$683 million or 172% of GNP. Since 1981, becauseof the worsening foreign exchange situation, Guyana has been unable toservice its external payment obligations. It is in arrears on most of itsexternal debt and in 1984, its debt service payments (interest andamortization) amounted to US$31 million, or 13% of the Exports of Goods andNon-factor services, compared to scheduled payments (excluding arrears) ofUS$88 million or 38% of Exports of Goods and non-factor services. Guyanais thus not creditworthy for non-concessional financing. In June 1981, theGovernment devalued the Guyana currency when the exchange rate was adjustedfrom GS2.55 to G$3.00 per US$1.U0. In January 1984, a further 20%devaluation occurred to bring the rate to G$3.75 per US$1.00. SinceOctober 1984, the exchange rate has been adjusted on a weekly basisaccording to the movements in the basket of currencies of Guyana's majortrading partners, excluding the US. Despite these devaluations, it isestimated that the real effective exchange rate of the Guyana dollar hascontinued to appreciate as a result of high rates of underlying inflationand the continuing poor export performance.

Government Response to the Crisis

iv. The Government's response to the crisis has included theimplementation of a short-term stabilization program in 1978, supported byan IMF Stand-by agreement and a Bank/IDA Program Loan/Credit; a three-yearIMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement in 1979 which was revised andaugmented in 1981; and Bank/IDA Structural Adjustment Program in 1981strengthened in mid-1982 through the adoption of the Government ActionProgram. The measures, nevertheless, failed to revive the economy, in partbecause of a slow rate of implementation and the continuing poor productionperformance of the bauxite and sugar sectors which exacerbated thecountry's foreign exchange shortage.

v. In compliance with the Bank/IDA supported structural adjustmentprogram, the Government implemented a number of policies and actions during1981-83. The main ones were those on energy resource development, exportpromotion and industrial development and pricing (especially with respectto electricity and rice). In addition, during 1984-85, the Government'sbudget outlined the national development priorities which emphasizeagricultural thrust and food self-sufficiency, resource allocation(including a program of regionalism and cooperatism), institutionalrestructuring and solutions to the domestic and external debt problems.The programs, however, fall considerably short of what is required forsustained recovery of the economy.

Macro-Aspects of Economic Recovery

vi. On the basis of progress made so far and policy proposals in the1984-85 budget documents, it is evident that a proper planning of policy

- iii -

initiatives aud augmentation of the recovery program with quantified sectortargets are necessary. In the short term, the recovery program shouldfocus on restoring production levels in the bauxite and sugar sectors to atleast their pre-1980 levels through improvements in factor productivity andthe elimination of short-term production constraint such as the shortage ofspare parts and raw materials. The latter will require a prudent adheranceto foreign exchange planning along the lines currently being employed bythe Bank of Guyana.

vii. In the long term, policies should be oriented toward expandingthe productive base of the economy through:

(a) measures to utilize fully the expanding productive capacity forrice through the expanded irrigation projects;

(b) diversification efforts into other mining, especially gold anddiamonds with active efforts to promote external private capital in thesesectors; and

(c) promotion of export manufacturing, especially of those items thatwill encourage backward and forward linkages within the economy.

viii. The recovery efforts over the past two years (and the developmentefforts since independence in general) have been conducted largely on anannual basis through the Government's budget. This approach is notsuitable for long-term planning. Rather, the formulation of a medium-termprogram with quantifiable targets within the framework of existingresources and constraints should form the basis of the economic strategy.Given rigidities of the economy, excess capacity and severe foreignexchange constraints, the process of adjustment should entail twofundamental stages: liberalization and rehabilitation. Although suchcompartmentalization is theoretical and overlap is bound to occur in realimplementation, the sequencing is important to free the economy of numerousdistortions and regidities that have resulted from the ad hoc adjustmentsof the past several years to unfavorable external environment and domesticperformance.

Role of the Public Sector

ix. Until the late 1960s, the economy of Guyana was relativelydominated by the private sector. The situation changed when the Governmentbegan to play a more active role. The share of public consumption in GDPalmost doubled during 1970-79, while public investment which in 1970 hadbeen equal to private investment, was four times as large by 1984.Furthermore, the public sector's purview over economic activity and futureinvestment has been extended by import license and foreign exchangeallocation procedures and price control system. The Government's increaseddominance on the economy has placed considerable demand on itsadministrative capacity to ensure adequate coordination and control. This

- iv -

may, in part, explain the gradual deterioration in finances and theincreased incidence of institutional, managerial and organizational bottle-necks within the public sector. A major contributory factor to theeconomic malaise of Guyana in recent years has therefore been theincreasing inability of the public sector to manage the vast resourcesavailable to it.

x. To improve the finances of the public sector, the Governmeat hasproposed a number of policy measures in its 1985 budget. With respect tothe Central Government finances, the Government's efforts have beendirected at containing the rapid expenditure growth as its revenue effortshave been reasonably successful. The proposed programs involve:

(a) management of domestic debt so as to reduce the rapidlyincreasing interest payments. While this proposal is in the right direc-tion, it is not based on an adequate review of the structure of domesticdebt although such a review is urgently needed as background for thisprogram;

(b) improvement in the efficiency of labor resources through reasses-sing the roles of the ministries with a view to redeploying labor to theregions where their productivity may be higher and through organizationaland motivational changes in the public sector.

Given the prevailing shortage of skilled personnel in the Central Govern-ment, the implementation of this program requires careful planning andmonitoring.

xi. In order to arrest the rising deficit of the public corporationsand to limit transfers from the Central Government, the Government hasannounced the organizational restructuring of the Guyana State EnterprisesCorporation (Guystac) and the Guyana Rice Board (GRB). The former involvesthe restructuring of Guystac into four groups, viz utilities, agriculture-based entities, commercial companies I and II. The objective is to promoteefficiency through the application of performance contracts. With respectto the GRB, the Government in December 1984 restructured it into threeentities, viz the Guyana Rice Milling and Marketing Authority, the GuyanaRice Export Board and the National Paddy and Rice Grading Centre. Thisrestructuring formed part of an overall reorganization of the rice sectorunder an Inter-American Development Bank financed program of efficiencyimprovement.

xii. A proper financial restructuring of the corporations should be anintegral part of the recovery program. At the moment no detailed analysishas been done for the corporations, except for the C=yana Mining Enterprise(Guymine). The proposals with respect to the financial restructuring ofGuymine (essentially the conversion of its deficits into preferred stockwhich is cumulative and redeemable) are inadequate. A comprehensivefinancial restiucturing of Guymine (and also the other financially weak

corporations) would require: (a) conversion of their deficits into equity,or other instruments; (b) the provision of an adequate level of workingcapital; and (c) rescheduling of both their domestic and external debt inan effort to reduce the debt burden. Finally, a detailed review of thecorporations indicates substantial scope for divestiture and closurewithout affecting the public sector's control of the economy. In view ofthe scarce management personnel in Guyana, divestiture and closure offeralternative options for containing the rapid growth of the public sector.

Public Sector Investment

xiii. Because of the uncertainty surrounding resource inflows tosupport the public sector investment, the program for 1985 is restricted toongoing projects of medium-term duration with identified external supportand short-term programs of major domestic importance. For the same reason,the projected levels and sectoral allocation of future investments cannotbe made available. The public sector investment, as reflected in theGovernment's 1985 budget documents, envisages expenditures of G$748million, which is some 142% above the level of actual expenditures for1984. This level of investment is clearly unattainable given identifiedsources of finance: G$264 (or US$64) million or about 35X of totalexpenditures from external sources and G$483 from local sources. Given thetight financial position of the public sector it is unlikely that thedomestic financing, part of which is required in foreign exchange, will beavailable. As in 1983 and 1984, the level of actual public investment islikely to be lower than projected. Given this likelihood, it is importantto review during mid-year, progress on the implementation of the investmentprogram and to limit, if need be, disbursements to high priority projects.

Development Prospects

xiv_ In view of the severity of the economic crisis facing Guyana andthe magnitude of its disequilibrium, it may not be possible to sustaingrowth without substantial external assistance. Since considerableuncertainty surrounds the availability of external resources to support therecovery program, analysis of medium- and long-term feasibility andconsistency of the development policies reviewed above may not berelevant. Instead, the overview of the development prospects will focus onmajor macroeconomic targets to which the Government should direct itsefforts over the next decade (1985-95). The goal would be to restoreproduction levels to those attained during the early 1970s. That is, by1990, the real level of GDP at factor cost should exceed that attained in1975 (a 30Z increase over the level in 1984), while the export levels inreal terms should be restored by 1995 to those of 1977 (a 73% increase overthe level in 1984'.

xv. If the projections of current account receipts and payments arerealized the cumulative deficit of the balance of payments will be aboutUS$851 million during 1985-90 or about US$142 million per year. Short-term

- vi -

finance will probably not be available in the medium term until an IMFprogram is in place. This can only take place when Guyana becomes currenton its repayment obligations to the IMF. In the long term, however,short-term financing will probably increase in line with the volume oftrade to be financed, provided the reduction of arrears and otherrescheduling negotiations are successful. The balance of the capitalrequirements should primarily have to come from inflows of long-term loansfrom official concessionary sources.

xvi. For potential donors, the implications of the above analysis arethreefold: First, Guyana will need a large infusion of external capital tosustain the recovery and rehabilitation of its economy. Second, a shifthas to take place from project to program assistance including recurrentfinancing and balance of payments support. Third, the donors have tocoordinate their assistance and to channel it largely for rehabilitation ofexisting capital stock and completion of ongoing investment programs(including those not originally supported by them). Since 1982, most ofthe external donors have made substantial new assistance to Guyanacontingent on an IMF program.

xvii. Over the past two years, the Government has been in the processof introducing major policy reforms in response to the economic crisis. Inorder to obtain the support of external donors, the Government shouldnot only continue these efforts but strengthen its program with additionalpolicy measures to include:

(a) reduction of the size of the public sector deficit throughexpenditure controls at the Central Government level and improvedperformance of the leading public corporations;

(b) improvement of Guyana's currency adjustment system, with theobjective of enhancing the profitability of domestic export industries andarresting the rapidly expanding parallel market;

(c) elimination of price distortions by limiting the number ofcommodities subject to official price controls to those that are highlyessential in nature with low elasticities of demand; and

(d) promotion of exports, especially through the removal of obstaclesto private initiative and the further provision of direct assistance toexporters of non-traditional commodities.

xviii. The speed and extent of the policy adjustments are, however,constrained by resource unavailability, especially of foreign exchange.The Government's efforts are part of a two-pronged approach dealingsimultaneously with the supply-side and the demand management problems. Inour judgement this approach is the only realistic one. Past attempts tofocus separately on demand management have been less than successful. Ifour judgement is correct, then a strong case exists for external donors totailor the volume and timing of their support accordingly, rather than toconsider the two sides of the equation separately and sequentially.

CHAPTER I - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

A. Background

1.01 The economy of Guyana is primarily dependent on the production ofsugar, rice, bauxite and alumina. Most of the agricultural activity isconcentrated along the coastal plains of the country, whereas the resourceswithin the densely tropical hinterland remain largely unexploited with theexception of bauxite mining. The mineral and timber rescurces containedwithin the interior are extensive, but access is limited because ofundeveloped infrastructure. At the time of Guyana's independence in 196b,the bauxite and sugar sectors were controlled by foreign interests, withthe indigenous private sector involved in local trading and distribution,agriculture and some small-scale manufacturing. Since the early 1970s,this distribution of ownership has changed substantially. The Governmentnationalized the bauxite and sugar sectors, and has progressively becomethe main actor in the other economic sectors. It is the major employer andcontrols over 90% of the official import and export trade. As part of itsobjective of developing a trisectoral mixed economy, the Government hasalso actively encouraged the development of cooperatives.

1.02 Economic performance during the 1970s was mixed. During thefirst half of the decade, real income grew by about 4.0% per annum as aresult of the rapid growth in Government expenditures and favourable pricesfor Guyana"s major export commodities. Unlike many other developingcountries, the rapid increases in oil prices during 1973-74 were onlyslightly disruptive in the short-term, as they were offset by a boom in theprice of sugar in 1974-75. The terms of trade for Guyana improved byapproximately 30% during 1970-75. National per capita income increased byabout 6% per annum, resulting in a rapid expansion in consumption andinvestment (5X and 10X per annum, respectively). Much of the growthoccutrred in the public sector, which utilized the windfall associated withsugar (approximately US$140 million during 1974 and 1975) to expand bothCentral Government consumption and investment expenditures.

1.03 As soon as sugar prices fell and there was a weakening in thedemand for Guyana's main exports, there was a rapid economic decline.During 1975-80, per capita income fell by about 5% per annum, consumptionfell by about 2% per annum, and investment declined by 10% per annum. Theeconomic decline reflected the continuing weak output performance of thetwo main productive sectors, bauxite and sugar. The resulting poor exportperformance of the two main sectors was further exacerbated by a dramaticworsening of the terms of trade as a result of falling sugar prices and thefurther oil price increase in 1979. The terms of trade fell byapproximately 30%, wiping out che gains enjoyed in the first half of thedecade. Moreover, the level of aggregate demand failed to adjust promptlywith negative implications for the balance of payments. During 1975-80,the resource gap averaged 12% of GDP compared to less than 2% during1971-75, resulting in a rapid-deterioration in the balance of payments.

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B. Recent Economic Developments

Domestic Sector

1.04 Output. During 1981-83, real GDP contracted significantly, withoutput in 1983 approximately 18% lower than the level achieved in 1979.There were significant declines in the bauxite and sugar sectors due to acombination of technical, labor and managerial problems. Problems inproduction-particularly of bauxite-not only reduced the operatingrevenues of individual corporations, but also drastically reduced foreignexchange earnings. This situation in turn inhibited the importation of thespare parts and machinery necessary to overcome the technical problems ofthe two sectors. The production and export problems were exacerbated bythe continued deterioration in the terms of trade for both bauxite andsugar and weak external demand for bauxite products.

Table 1: Real Growth of GDP by Sectors

(percentage)

1970-75a/ 1975-80a/ 1981 1982 1983 1984

Productive Sectors 2.0 -1.6 -0.4 -12.1 -14.0 9.3Mining -2.3 -5.3 -11.4 -31.5 -22.4 47.0Sugar b/ 0.9 -1.3 10.9 -3.8 -12.6 -3.6Rice bT 2.4 0.9 -2.2 15.o -19.2 23.8Other Agriculture 4.9 -0.7 -4.7 -3.7 -3.8 2.6Other Industry c/ 9.1 0.7 3.6 -15.8 -13.9 -

Service Sectors 6.9 0.4 -0.2 8.3 -4.3 1.3Government 10.5 1.9 1.0 -7.7 -1.9 -Other 4.4 -0.5 -1.3 -8.8 -6.3 2.6

GDP at Factor Cost 3.9 -0.7 -0.3 -10.4 -9.6 5.5

a/ Compound growth rate (X) p.a.b/ Includes processing.c/ Includes electricity, gas, water and construction.

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 2.3.

1.05 The economy experienced substantial recovery in output in 1984,primarily as a result of improvements in bauxite production. Value addedin the bauxite sector grew by 47%, as a result of an 8% increase in driedmetal grade bauxite production and a 67% increase in calcined bauxiteproduction. Since 1983, Guymine undertook, with external technicalassistance, a program to streamline its operations and rehabilitate itsequipments. There was also a significant recovery in rice production,which increased by 23% to reach about 181,000 long tons in 1984, thehighest level since 1978. The improvement resulted from a 28% increase inthe acreage reaped and generally favourable weather conditions. Sugarproduction, however, continued to be disappointing, with output declining

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by 5.5Z to its lowest level in over ten years. The decline resulted fromunusually heavy rainfall during the fall of 1984 which impeded harvesting.Other manufacturing activities continued to be very depressed owing to alack of imported spare parts and inputs.

1.06 As a result of the deteriorating economic performance since 1980,the real level of domestic aggregate expenditures has steadily declined.The adjustment to lower levels of national income has taken place mainly inthe form of reduced real consumption, both public and private. The drasticcontraction in private consumption is evidenced by the shortages in basicconsumer commodities and the substitution of previously less popularconsumer items for those no longer being imported. The growth of theunofficial consumer market underscores the magnitude of the problem andindicates the inappropriateness of the official statistics on aggregateconsumption expenditures. The rate of decline in consumption may thus besignificantly lower than the level indicated by the official statistics.

1.07 Investment and Savings. Investment as a percentage of GNP hasdeclined steadily since 1981; it was 26Z in 1984 compared to 37Z in 1981.This decline resulted from the worsening fiscal situation, the lack offoreign exchange, and the drop in external project-related inflows inrecent years. The above features are reflected in the trends in nationalsavings which have declined in absolute and relative terms since 1978. Themain reason for the decline has been the deterioration of public finances,particularly since 1981. Foreign savings have thus financed an increasingproportion of total investment since 1978.

Table 2: Investment and Savings

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984As Z of Gross Domestic Investment

Gross Domestic Investment 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Public 81.2 80.3 82.0 83.8 84.2 84.8 79.5Private 18.8 19.7 18.0 16.2 15.8 15.2 20.5

Gross National Savings 69.0 51.1 38.0 10.4 -5.2 2.9 15.5

Foreign Savings 31.0 48.9 62.0 89.6 105.2 97.1 84.5

As Z of GNP at current Market Prices

Gross Domestic Investment 21.6 32.9 32.0 36.9 28.9 28.9 24.0Public 17.5 26.4 26.7 30.9 24.3 24.5 19.1Private 4.1 6.5 5.3 6.0 4.6 4.4 4.9

Gross National Savings i4.9 16.8 12.2 3.8 -1.5 0.8 3.7

Foreign Savings 6.7 16.1 19.8 33.1 30.4 28.1 20.3

Source: Statistical Appendix Tables 2.5 and 3.1.

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1.08 Public Finances. The deterioration in the real economy of Guyanaduring 1981-83, unaccompanied by timely demand reduction policies, hasresulted in a significant worsening of the public sector finances over thepast four years. Public sector savings have been negative since 1981, andthe overall deficit widened from 13% of GDP in 1978 to bO% in 1984. Until1981, the current account deficit of the Central Government was offset bythe surpluses of the public corporations. However, the decline ininternational demand for the output of the bauxite and sugar sectors hasmeant a substantial decline in revenues and large operating deficits. Theproblem has been further compounded by a decline in real zeonomic activityand an increase in the size of the parallel market, both of which havehelped to erode the Government's revenue base. While the Government hassought to curtail the growth of expenditures its measures have been slowand insufficient to offset the decline in real revenues. To finance thepublic sector deficit, and particularly the substantial capitalexpenditures of 1980-82, the Government resorted to short- to medium-termdomestic borrowing, mainly from the banking system. This policy has putincreasing pressure on Central Government expenditures as domestic interestpayments have risen sharply. Interest payments have increased by 238%since 1980; in 1984 alone they represented 30% of total Central Governmentexpenditures. The Government plans to restructure most of the short- tomedium-term domestic debt into longer term instruments (the related policyproposals are discussed in detail in Chapter IV).

1.09 Credit and Prices. The movements in domestic credit and monetaryaggregates in Guyana have been determined largely by the public sector'sfinancial performance. The annual average growth of net credit to thepublic sector from 1980 to 1984 has been about 30%, whereas the comparablefigure for the private sector has been about 24%.

Table 3: Outstanding Domestic Credit

(Z of GDP)

Credit to Public Credit to Private RatioSector (G) Sector (P) G/P

1978 53.4 9.6 5.561979 65.8 12.3 5.351980 80.9 13.0 6.221981 93.4 16.4 5.7U1982 145.4 21.7 6.701983 186.3 25.9 7.191984 202.4 27.3 7.41

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 6.3.

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1.10 Net domestic credit to the public sector was mainly in the formof sales of treasury bills to both the commercial banks and the Bank ofGuyana. The credit expansion to the public sector has been facilitated bya number of factors. First, the commercial banks have become increasinglymore liquid over the past two years as private sector investmentopportunities have declined because of the lack of foreign exchange.Further, the time and savings deposits of the private sector have grownsignificantly in recent years reflecting both the decline in theavailability of consumer goods and the increased parallel market activity.Some commercial banks have refused to accept further private deposits.Second, the capacity of the Bank of Guyana to extend credit to the publicsector was enhanced by the import payments deposit scheme introduced in1978. These funds, meant to be repatriated when foreign exchange isavailable, had risen to G$465 million by end-December 1984, compared toabout G$53 million at the end of 1978.

1.11 Interest rates were adjusted upward on three occasions since1980. The rates were adjusted by the authorities in compliance with WorldBank/IMF programs. Despite the adjustments, interest rates have beennegative in real terms. However, the excess liquidity of the privatecommercial banking sector indicates that deposit and lending rates, eventhough negative in real terms, may not reflect market conditions. Atpresent, the commercial banks have no alternative investment outlets otherthan the purchase of treasury bills, given the total lack of normal privatedemand for credit because of the current low level of economic activity.

1.12 The rate of price increases, as measured by the official consumerprice index, accelerated in 1984, primarily as a result of the currencydevaluations in January and subsequent weekly adjustments initiated inOctober. The average rate of increase in 1984 was 20%, as compared to 12%in 1983. During 1984 the prices on a number of consumer items wereraised to reflect the exchange rate adjustment. Transportation tariffswere raised by 50%, and electricity tariffs were also increased between 5%for household consumption and 30% for industrial use. The domestic priceof sugar has been raised to 63 Guyana cents per pound from 33 cents, andrice prices have been adjusted by 25%. The full effects of the 1984devaluations on domestic prices have not, however, been felt completely, asthe utility price adjustments, for example, only took place in 1985. Theofficial price index also underestimates the rate of inflation as some ofthe items contained in the consumer basket used for its compilation areeither price controlled or only available at the parallel market atsubstantially high price premia.

External Sector

1.13 Balance of Payments. Despite a 44% decline in exports during1980-84, the resource gap has widened by only 14%, reflecting thesubstantial decline in imports that occurred over the period. The currentaccount deficit in 1984 represented 26% of GDP compared to 22% in 1980.The performance in 1984 represents a significant improvement over the

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the average of 31% of GDP during 1981-83. The current account deficitswere financed by concessional capital inflows while the shortfalls wereaccounted for by the accumulation of external arrears which amounted toUS$625.4 million or 158% of GNP at the end of 1984.

Table 4: Balance of Payments

(US$ million)

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

Exports (Goods & NFS) 313.6 311.0 408.6 373.3 264.0 225.0 230.5Imports (Goods & NFS) 313.7 360.0 470.6 484.3 345.7 324.3 301.1

Resource Gap -0.1 -49.0 -62.0 -111.0 -81.7 -99.3 -70.6Net Factor Services -25.3 -30.2 -41.2 -58.1 -43.4 -29.3 -20.2Transfers -6.5 0.3 -6.0 0.2 -8.2 0.7 4.7

Current Account Balance -31.7 -78.9 -109.2 -168.9 -133.3 -127.9 -86.1Public Capital (net) 27.3 31.6 52.2 124.0 54.4 25.0 11.7Other (net) -8.0 -6.5 -41.0 -17.3 -14.5 -85.6 -68.1

Change in Arrears(Increase-+) 22.2 5.2 17.0 91.0 113.1 201.1 174.8

Change in Net Reserve(Increase-+) -9.8 48.6 81.0 -28.8 -19.6 -12.6

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 3.1.

1.14 With the exception of a moderate increase in 1984, exports ofgoods and non-factor services have declined continually since 1980, as aresult of the poor production performance in the sugar sector and weakexternal demand for bauxite products. In 1984, sugar exports were 49% of1980 levels (volumes declined by 34%), and bauxite about 48% (with a volumedecline of 43%). The fall in export earnings of the two leading sectorsalso resulted from the decline in export prices; the price for sugar fellby 26% while that for bauxite fell by 15%. The Government's system ofimport license and foreign exchange allocation has been vigorously enforcedin an effort to reduce the level of official merchandise imports. Inparticular, importation of consumer and intermediate goods has beensignificantly reduced; by 1984 they were 28% and 54% respectively of their1980 levels. Furthermore, as the result of the build-up of externalcommercial arrears, external financial and commercial agencies have since1983 refused to extend suppliers' credit facilities to support Guyana'simports, which are currently on cash basis.

1.15 In compliance with an IMF stand-by program (see para. 2.02), theGovernment devalued the Guyana currency in June 1981, when the exchangerate was adjusted from G$2.55 to G$3.00 per US$1.00. in January 1984 afurther 20% devaluation was announced to bring the rate to G$3.75 perUS$1.00. The mid-1981 devaluation did not have the desired effect, in part

because consumers were largely shielded from its immediate impact as thepublic sector failed to adjust fully the prices it charges for the goods itproduces, imports or controls. In 1984, the Government passed through tothe consumer most of the devaluation induced cost increases. Since October1984, the exchange rate has been adjusted on a weekly basis according tothe movements of a basket of currencies and by end-December 1984, stood atG$4.25 per US$1.00. Despite these devaluations, it is estimated that thereal effective exchange rate of the Guyana dollar has continued toappreciate as a result of high rates of underlying domestic inflation andthe continuing poor export performance (see Chapter II).

1.16 External Debt. Because of the rapid build-up of externalarrears, very few new M & LT loans were extended to Guyana during 1982-84.New commitments fell from US$201 million in 1981 to less than US$12 millionin 1983 and rose to US$44 million in 1984. Guyana's disbursed andoutstanding medium and long term (M & LT) debt as of December 31, 1984 wasUS$683 million or 172% of GNP. In addition to the M & LT debt are arrearsamounting to US$625.4 million. Actual debt service payments in 1984amounted to US$31 million (of which US$16 million were for interestpayments) or 13X of Exports of Goods and Non-factor services; compared to20% in 1983. These payments were considerably below the scheduled debtservice payment (excluding arrears) which amounted to US$88 million (ofwhich US$29 million were for interest payments) or 38% of Exports of GNFSin 1984. Since 1981, because of the worsening foreign exchange situationGuyana has been unable to service all of its external paymentsobligations. Guyana is in arrears on most of its external debt. Theseriousness of the situation and the magnitudes involved warrant specialattention (Chapter VI discusses in detail the nature of the problem alongwith the Government's proposed solutions).

C. The Source of the Economic Crisis

1.17 External developments, including the deterioration in the termsof trade, and exogenous domestic factors such as poor weather conditions,have played an important role in the economic decline that has taken placein recent years. However, the main cause may be traced to the rapid growthof the public sector through excessive increase in current expendituresunmatched by the same levels of revenues, which took place since the early1970s and its inability to adequately manage the vast available resources.With the completion of the nationalization of the bauxite and sugarindustries (the two leading sectors) and the sharp expansion of its role inother sectors of the economy, the public sector severely overextended itsmanagerial and technical capabilities at the same time that thosecapabilities were being severely eroded by a large outflow of technicalmanpower which resulted in part from government employment policies.

1.18 The interrelated symptoms of the underlying crisis created by therapid growth of the public sector are manifested in:

(a) poor domestic production - the difficulties the public sectorfaces in managing efficiently the assets it has acquired, and the privatesector's lack of confidence, resulting from the manner of public sector

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expansion has led to decreasing levels of output, prevented the publicinvestments from yielding additional output, and held back privateinvestment;

(b) overregulation and allocative distortions - the capacity of thepublic sector to master the vast array of policy variables and hence tomanage resource allocation in an overly centralized economic structure hasresulted in price distortions (including the exchange rate) and resourcemisallocation which have exacerbated the deteriorating productionperformance; and

(c) weak economic base - the inability of the economy to withstandexternal shocks (in terms of the weak international demand and prices forGuyana's main exports and the high prices for critical imports) may beattributed to the narrow productive base of the economy which has changedonly marginally since the early 1970s. The rapid growth of the publicsector constituted primarily the acquisition of resources from the privatesector. Its failure to improve on the returns of the assets it acquired,as evidenced by the deficits of the public corporations, has severelylimited its ability to expand the productive base of the economy.

1.19 In order to overcome the economic crisis, the Government needsto carefully review the role of the public sector in Guyana vis-a-vis theprivate and cooperative sectors. The recovery process will also requirepolicies to constrain (and if possible, reduce) the growth of the publicsector and minimize its influence on the economy. Furthermore, effortsshould be made to promcte in the public sector organizational andmanagerial systems that are responsive to changing financial and economicrealities.

CHAPTER II - MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK FOR RECOVERY

A. Government Response to Crisis

2.01 The Government's first coherent response to the post 1975 crisiswas the implementation of a short-term stabilization program in 1978,supported by an IMF Stand-by agreement and a Bank/IDA Program Loan/Credit.The program succeeded in temporarily improving fiscal performance and thebalance of payments by sharply reducing aggregate demand by nearly 20% inreal terms in 1978. The public sector current Zt--.Lt turned from adeficit of 3% of GDP in 1977 to a surplus of 4% in 1978, while the overalldeficit went from 21X to 13% of GDP. The deficit on the current account ofthe balance of payments also dropped from 22% to 6Z of GDP in 1978. Theprogram did not, however, adequately address the underlying structuralconstraints to increasing and sustaining investment, savings and outputlevels and to adjusting the economy to the new international economicenvironment.

Structural Adjustment/Stabilization Program

2.02 Recognizing that a longer term program was required to addressthe fundamental development constraints of the economy, in 1979 theGovernment entered into a three-year IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF)arrangement. Guyana, however, failed to meet the program targets as aresult of (i) its inability to reduce government expenditures and containdomestic financial imbalance, and (ii) the continuing production problems,related in particular to the labor unrest in the key export-orientedsectors during 1979 and a further deterioration in the terms of tradebrought about by the second round of sharp oil price increases.

2.03 Faced with the continuing economic crisis, in 1980 the Governmentbegan to formulate an economic program that aimed at resuming economicgrowth, generating employment and strengthening the balance of paymentsthrough the development and expansion of export-generating and efficientimport-substituting activities. In the short term, the program aimed atimproving the utilization of existing productive capacity, especially ofexportable goods, the execution of a production-oriented investment programin both the public and private sectors, and substantial increases in thelevel of national savings. In the longer term, it hoped to achieve astructural transformation of the economy through:

(a) sustained growth in the production of agricultural commodities,of mining, fishing and forestry products, and of non-traditionalmanufactures, and a simultaneous restraint in the rate of growth of theGovernment sector;

(b) diversification of the output of the productive sectors byintroducing new activities and by increasing processing of raw materialssuch as timber, root crops, etc;

(c) substitution of the imports of fossil fuels by the development ofhydroelectric power and also by utilizing local and imported sources ofenergy more efficiently; and

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(d) broadening the productive base by the development of industry toinclude, in the longer term, the smelting of aluminum using hydroelectricpower.

2.04 The Government's program was supported by a new IMF Extended FundFacility of SDR 100 million (augmented to SDR 150 million in mid-1981), anda Bank/IDA Structural Adjustment Loan/Credit of US$22 million equivalent.Under the IMF/EFF arrangements, the Government undertook, among otherthings, to initiate the removal of price distortions, improvements in theproductivity of labor, increased agricultural yields, and improvements inthe relationship between the Government and the private sector, particular-ly through the removal of obstacles to private initiatives. Similarly,under the Bank/IDA structural adjustment program, specific sector policieswere formulated which pertained to energy resource development andconservation; export development, especially relating to sugar, rice,fisheries, timber, bauxite/alumina and non-traditional manufactures;rationalization of pricing policies; and improving organizational andmanagerial efficiency.

2.05 These policies were further broadened and strengthened in May1982 through the adoption of the Government Action Program (see EconomicReport 3951-GUA). The main elements of the program were: (a) theconclusion of a partnership arrangement with a foreign company in thebauxite industry; (b) a reduction in the scope of activities of the GuyanaRice Board (GRB), the adoption of a rice pricing policy based on anIDB-financed study to maintain adequate producer prices, and a review ofrice marketing arrangements to ensure optimal returns to producers and theeconomy; Cc) adjustments in remuneration to attract and retain techniciansin the agricultural sector, a strengthening of regional agriculturalinstitutions, and a review of land tenure and holding policies supported byFAO; (d) measures to expand manufacturing, particularly for exports,including the adoption of a comprehensive investment code to be preparedwith assistance of Bank-financed consultants, import tax concessions,priority allocation of foreign exchange and power, the establishment of ajoint/private export council and of representative councils for industry,the appointment of a liaison between private enterpreneurs and the Govern-ment; (e) the limitation of public sector enterprises in manufacturing topresent activities, a strengthening of public sector enterorises managementthrough technology and marketing partnership arrangements, and equityparticipation by the foreign and domestic private sector in existing publicsector enterprises; (f) the continued implementation of measures agreedunder Bank/IDA Structural Adjustment Loan/Credit and the IDB's AgriculturalSector Loan including, inter alia, efforts to improve savings through arestraint of government spending and an increase in interest rates; and(g) a general strengthening of the Government's administrative systems andinstitutions, based in part on IDB-financed planning assistance.

Macroeconomic Effects of Program

2.06 The performance of the program during 1981-83 fell far short ofthe targets set (see table 5 below). In mid 1982, the IMF arrangement was

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terminated because of Guyana's failure to meet its targets. Since then,Guyana has been unable to conclude another program with the IMF, althoughthe IMF and the Bank have urged the Government to initiate measures on itsown to strengthen the balance of payments, such as: the removal of pricecontrols; an adjustment of the exchange rate through either systematicderegulation or floating of the Guyana currency; and greater emphasis ondomestic resource mobilization, particularly through a reduction ofdeficits in the public sector.

Table 5: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators

(In percentage)

SAL a/ Projected ActualHigh Moderate

Growth Target Growth Target Average1981-83 19b1-83 1981-83

Growth Rates (1977 prices)GDP (at factor cost) 5.7 3.6 -6.6Exports 10.8 8.7 -12.3Imports 6.0 3.9 -14.1Consumption per Capita 1.1 -0.1 -5.0Change in Terms of Trade 3.1 3.1 -12.5

Ratio to GDP (current prices)Consumption 81.5 82.3 89.2Investment 27.3 26.4 29.7Gross Domestic Savings 18.5 17.7 10.7Gross National Savings 14.7 13.5 !.0Exports of GNFS 65.1 64.8 55.6Imports of GNFS 73.9 73.5 74.bResource Gap 8.8 8.7 19.0Current Account Deficit 12.6 12.9 27.9

a/ President's Report P-2935-GUA, page 20.

B. Recent Macroeconomic Reforms

2.07 A number of policies were implemented during 1981-83, but theywere microeconomic in nature and are reviewed in Annex III. Apart fromthose with respect to the bauxite and rice industries, the main ones dealtwith energy resource development, export promotion and industrialdevelopment and pricing (especially with respect to electricity and rice).They were implemented largely in compliance with the Bank/IDA supportedstructural adjustment program. The Government's own efforts inmacroeconomic policy formulation and implementation to address the economiccrisis were initiated in its budget for 1984 and 1985. As would beexplained in later parts of this report, the programs fall considerablyshort of what is required for sustained recovery of the economy.

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Development Strategies

2.08 The Government's national development priorities as outlined inits budget for 1984 and 1985 emphasize agricultural thrust with a view tofood self-sufficiency, as well as the need for more efficient resourceallocation (including a program of reginnalism and cooperatism),institutional restructuring and solution to the domestic and external debtproblems. The related policy initiatives are reviewed in subsequentchapters. This chapter, looks at the main macro-policy initiatives since1984 with a view to assessing additional requirements, if any, for havingan effective impact on the economy. The review focuses on policy changeswith respect to the exchange rate, the public sector deficit and priceliberalization.

2.09 Exchange Rate Policy. In an effort to arrest the rapidlydeteriorating foreign exchange situation and to reduce the parallel marketpremia payable by consumers and producers as a result of the disequilibriumin the official exchange rate, the Government on January 11, 1984 devaluedthe Guyana currency by about 20% vis-a-vis the US dollar. This was thesecond devaluation since October 9, 1975; the first was on June 2, 1981.Concurrently, the Government re-introduced the mechanism of a currencybasket (originally conceived of in 1981) for monitoring the value of theGuyana dollar. The mechanism involved the adaptation of a formula devisedyears ago for the payment of bauxite exports. Under it, payments were madeby buyers in a basket of hard currencies, the purpose being to buffer theindustry's hard currency earnings against rate fluctuations. In the caseof the Guyana dollar, the present basket consists of the Pound Sterling,the Deutsche Mark, the French Franc, the Netherlinds Guilder, and theJapanese Yen. The system was designed to stabilize the value of the Guyanadollar around a level of G$15 to the basket, wich adjustment of the G$/US$rate only if the basket value moved outside a predetermined band of 10% ofthe target level.

2.10 ln order to determine the "correctness" of the G*15 level forstabilizing the Guyana dollar value vis-a-vis the basket, the Governmentwith the assistance of the Commonwealth Fund for Technical Cooperation(CFTC), monitored the system. However, until October 19b4, the GS waspegged to the US$ irrespective of what happened to its relationship withthe basket. In October 1984, it was decided that in view of thestrengthening of the US dollar against all other major internationallytraded currencies, the 10% band around the G$15 stabilization level wouldbe abandoned. A regime of exchange rate determination on a weekly basiswas thus instituted with the resultant rate at end-December 1984 beingG$4.25JUS$1.00, a 12% devaluation compared to the January 1984 exchangerate.

2.11 The Government's effort at adjusting the exchange rate of theGuyana dollar vis-a-vis the currencies of its major trading partners iscommendable. The estimated Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) index,despite its weaknesses brought about by the inappropriateness of theGuyana consumer price index and theoretical difficulties related to thechoice of base year, indicates considerable appreciation of the GS relative

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Table 6: Official Exchange Rates & Trade Weighted Index

AverageOfficial Rate Exchange REER Index

G$IUS$ Rate Index (1980=100)

1975 2.3550 92.41980 2.5500 100.0 100.01981 2.8125 110.3 108.01982 3.0000 117.6 122.81983 3.OOUO 117.6 160.91984 3.8258 150.0 180.2

Source: IDF Staff estimates.

to its major trading partner currencies, including the US dollar. Inaddition, the policy objective of stabilizing the G$ earnings for the mainexport industries by the use of the currency basket mechanism is adeviation from the conventional economic framework in which the price offoreign exchange is determined by the market mechanism of demand andsupply. The exchange rate corrections under implementation reflect onlychanges in the value of US$ vis-a-vis the basket. What is needed isadjustment of the level of G$ with respect to the basket, including theUS$, to reflect the interplay of market forces in determining its value.

2.12 The Public Sector Deficit. Given that Guyana's economy isinfluenced predominantly by the public sector, the size of the publicsector deficit has tremendous implications for creditworthiness. Until1981, the main source of the public sector current account deficit was theCentral Government whose current expenditures always exceeded currentrevenues. Since 1981, however, the losses of the public corporations aswell as the compounding of domestic interest payments have exacerbated theproblem. The Government is cogvuizant of the problem, but except for somelimited retrenchment of labor in the leading public corporations, an actionthat has had only marginal results in terms of expenditures, as yet it hasimplemented no comprehensive policies. The 1985 budget, however, proposesa number of policy instruments to deal with the public sector deficit.They are discussed in detail in Chapter IV.

2.13 Price Liberalization and Incomes Policy. Apart from the pricingpolicies with respect to electricity, petroleum products and rice initiatedunder the structural adjustment program (1981-83), no comprehensive pricingapproach has been adopted except those proposed in the 1985 Budget. TheGovernment is cognizant of the distortionary effects of administered pricesand during 1984 relaxed a number of controls on prices, in particular thoseon sugar and alcoholic beverages. The Government plans to periodicallyreview the remaining items on the price control list and to empLoy theprice mechanism to determine the desirableC allocation of resources byusing it as an instrument to discourage consumption, to change consumptionpatterns, and to raise the efficiency of utilization. As an adjunct tothis policy approach, the Government proposes to abolish all ineffectual-

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subsidies as a means of discouraging the expansion of the parallel market.While the proposed elimination of subsidies is in the right direction, thecontinuing existence of administrative controls on the pricing of theseitems may render the whole policy instrument ineffective.

2.14 Guyana has had no income policy in the past. Previous wagechanges have been ad hoc with a concomitant adverse effect on public sectorfinances. The 1985 budget proposes two approaches to this issue:

(a) the establishment of a standing committee, with trade unionrepresentation, to review the levels and distribution of public sectorincomes. It is proposed that appropriat_ adjustments will be made fromtime to time on the basis of these reviews; and

(b) the promotion of agricultural production on individual plotsor in group arrangements to supplement personal income. The proposedincentives would include easier access to land, marketing and technicalsupport.

The latter policy requires a careful rethinking within the framework ofagricultural fragmentation and past experience in Guyana with the promotionof the cooperative movement.

C. Macro-Aspects of Economic Recovery

Objectives

2.15 On the basis of progress to date and the policy proposals in the1985 budget, it is evident that proper planning of policy initiatives andaugmentation of the recovery program with quantified sector targets arenecessary (the latter are the focus of subsequent chapters). The broadframework for the systematic planning of policy initiatives in Guyana isoutlined below.

2.16 The aim of any adjustment program and policies should be tosustain the recovery process initiated in 1984. In the short-term, therecovery program should focus on restoring production levels in thebauxite/sugar sectors, to at least pre-1980 levels by improving factorproductivity and eliminating short-term production constraints such as theshortages of spare parts. The latter will require prudent adherence toforeign exchange planning along the lines currently being employed by theBank of Guyana.

2.17 In the long-term, policies should be oriented toward expandingthe productive base of the economy through:

(a) measures to utilize fully the expanding productive capacity forrice through the expanded irrigation projects;

(b) diversification into the mining of other resources, especiallygold and diamonds. Efforts to promote external capital in these sectorsshould be actively pursued; and

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(c) promotion of export manufacturing, especially of those items thatwill encourage backward and forward linkages within the economy.

Strategy

2.18 The recovery efforts over the past two years (and the developmentefforts since independence in general) have been directed largely on anannual basis by the Government's budget. This approach is not suitable forlong-term planning. Rather, the formulation of a medium-term program withquantifiable targets within the framework of existing resources andconstraints should form the basis of economic strategy. Given rigiditiesof the economy, excess capacity and severe foreign exchange constraints,the process of adjustment should entail two fundamental phases:liberalization and rehabilitation. Although such a division istheoretical, and overlap is bound to occur in implementation, thesequencing is important in order to free the economy of numerousdistortions and rigidities that have resulted from the ad hoc adjustmentsof the past several years to an unfavourable external environment anddomestic performance.

2.19 The liberalization phase would entail a reduction of pricedistortions (including the exchange rate system), an elimination ofexcessive claims on consumption, i.e. an increase in domestic savings, anda reduction of Government intervention in the economy as a whole. Thelatter would include curtailment of direct productive activities by thepublic sector to current levels and a restructuring of the publiccorporations along the lines proposed in the Government's 1985 budget. Therationale behind this proposal is that the overly rapid expansion of thepublic sector has had a negative impact on its administrative capacity (aproblem that has further been exacerbated by the shortage of skilledmanpower). It is not prudent to continue to overextend the public sector.The formulation and implementation of policies to support the liberaliza-tion phase should, on the basis of progress made so far, take at least twofiscal years.

2.20 The rehabilitation phase would involve improving the capacityutilization of existing capital assets as a precondition for recovery andfor further expansion. At this phase, external donor assistance, in theform of balance of payments support, will be crucial. It is against thisbackground that the authorities in Guyana face a dilemma. While the needsof the economy resulting from the long neglect of the last decade areenormous (estimates are provided in Chapter VII), the resources in sight,at this stage are limited. Guyana's domestic social and foreign policieshave also affected the perception of Guyana among its main external donorsand generated skepticism in the domestic private sector. The rationale forthe liberalization phase is thus to restore external confidence in theeconomy, to increase the efficiency of resource use and to integrate theexpanding parallel economy into the mainstream.

2.21 It should be stressed that the implementation of the first phasewill not necessarily result in rapid recovery. However, once therehabilitation process is complete, the economy should be capable of

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sustained real growth at significant levels. The sequencing of the phasesand policy measures, discussed in subsequent chapters, are neitherconclusive nor definitive. They merely suggest a framework for developinga comprehensive medium-term plan to support the economic recovery processin Guyana.

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CHAPTER III - SECTORAL ADJUSTMENT POLICIES

3.01 The preceding chapters outlined the nature of the economic crisisin Guyana, the Government's response and the macro economic policyframework required for recovery. The next set of chapters discusses themicroeconomic aspects of the crisis in selected key sectors, theGovernment's policy response and additional policy requirements for astrong recovery process. The analysis is conducted within the generalframework proposed in the preceding chapter, namely, that the policyinitiatives formulated during the liberalization phase of recovery shouldprovide the basis for the rehabilitation phase and subsequent sustainedgrowth.

A. Policy Issues in the Leading Sectors

Bauxite

3.02 Background. Bauxite production in Guyana is undertaken by thestate-owned Guyana Mining Enterprise Limited (Guymine). Wuymine operatesmines and plants at four locations: at Linden on the Demerara River, atKwakwani at the Berbice River, at Ituni between Linden and Kwakwani and atEverton near the mouth of the Berbice River. Two of Guymine's products arecalcined in rotary kilns-that is, heated to the temperature at which bothfree moisture and chemica'ly bound water are driven off. These areRefractory Bauxite (RASC), used in producing high alumina bricks, andAbrasive A Grade Calcine (AAC), used as a feed material for producing fusedalumina in electric furnaces. Guymine also produces three products whichinvolve only crushing, screening and drying. These are MetallurgicalBauxite (MAZ), which is feed for alumina plants which in turn producealumina for the production of aluminum; Chemical Grade Bauxite (CGB) a feedmaterial for production of such chemicals as aluminum sulfate, aluminumflouride and cryolite; and an Aluminous Cement Grade Bauxite (ACGB) which,as the name implies, is used to manufacture high alumina cement.

Table 7: Bauxite - Index of Output and Earnings

(peak production/export = 100)

Peak Production'000 Long Average IndexTons Year 1971-75a/ 1976-80 1981-t4

Dried metal grade bauxite 2053 1971 78 46 43Calcined bauxite 778 1975 91 81 44Alumina 311 1974 91 74 42 b/Export earnings (US$m) 188 1980 44 73 56

a/ Data for 1971-75 refer to export volumes.b/ Alumina production was discontinued in 1982; figure is an average for

1981-82.

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 7.1.

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3.03 Since 1974, following the complete nationalization of theIndustry, output performance has declined consistently. By 1983, the levelof output was far below that before 1970 (see Table 7). Apart from thedemand problems which Guyana faced for its bauxite products, domesticproduction and marketing problems (including unreliability of supplies anda decline in quality standards) and the emergence of new competitors, ledto a sharp decline in Guyana's share of the market for calcined bauxitefrom about 8OX in the late 1960s and early 1970s to just ov-r 50% in recentyears. Since 1983, the industry has moved from a majo- net foreignexchange earner into a net foreign exchange loser and has accounted for thesevere foreign exchange shortage facing the country.

3.04 Issues. Four main factors account for the poor performance inrecent years. They are: poor condition of plants, high operating cost,weak management and organization, and poor market conditions. The existingplants and equipments are generally in poor condition and will requireextensive rehabilitation. The immediate problem is one of spare parts, andthe Government has responded in 1984 by permitting Guymine to retain itsforeign exchange earnings but this has led to ad hoc procurement practicessince the need is greater than available resources. The poor condition ofplant and equipment has implied low capacity utilization. A review in 1980(which is still relevant now) indicated that with appropriate rehabilita-tion, output levels could be expanded considerably (see Table 8 below).

Table 8: Capacity and Output of Bauxite Industry

('000 metric tons)

Estimated Estimated Capacity with

Capacity Output Improvements

Linden (Linden & Kwakwani operations)Mines (wet bauxite) 5670 3600 5670Tailing Plant (concentrate)a/ 370 250 770Calcined Bauxite 850 527 1100Dried Bauxite-metal gradeb/ 780 495 780Alumina 29U 211 330

Berbice (Ituni & Everton operations)Mines (wet bauxite) 1640 1400 2100Calcined Bauxite 75 75 121Dried Bauxite 800 750c/ 10U0

a/ Concentrate from tailings plant is mixed with dried metal gradebauxite to produce alumina.

b/ Including inputs for alumina plant (about 225 in 1980).c/ Of which approximately 280 metal grade, 420 chemical grade and 50

aluminous cement grade.

3.05 The low level of capacity utilization brought about by poor plantand equipment condition has implied high operating costs. In 1984, fueloil (G$144.1 million) and employment (GS59.8 million) were 47% of Guymine's

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costs. Both are considered unusually high for the type of operations atGuymine. In the case of fuel, cost controls in the mines and plant areweak. The combustion practices in the kilns and dryers, until recently,were without control and even lack normal indicators to tell the operatorhow much fuel and air were being supplied to the burners. A number of fuelefficiency methods and proposals are being put in place; they include theinstallation of metal cold-end seals to selected kilns and heat exchangerquadrants. Another contributing factor is the relative overstaffing whichresults from Government policies. Since 1980, however, the level ofemployment has declined from 7,620 to 4,796 in 1984, partly as a result ofnormal attrition and large retrenchment of staff in 1983 following theclosure of the alumina plant.

3.06 Guymine's management and organizational problems derived from thecxodus of skilled manpower from the country as a result of the Government'slabor policies and the deteriorating economic situation since 1978i. Theorganization and human resource rehabilitation is a necessary but notsufficient condition for a recovery of the bauxite sector. It isnevertheless a precondition for a technical rehabilitation of the sector.Improved performance in 1984, which resulted partly from improvedmanagement style and incentive structure, is a manifestation of the roleof efficient management and organization. The proposed efforts includingreorganization of staff, introduction of training and redefinition ofresponsibilities and an incentive system based on sales maximization andcost reduction are commendable. External assistance to fill in criticalmanagement gaps should be actively sought.

3.07 Guymine's performance problems also originated from weakmarket conditions. The revenues from its main product, RASC droppeddrastically in recent years. Two major factors have contributed to thisdecrease-the general slowdown in the world steel industry which is themajor consumer of RASC and the deep penetration of the refractory bauxitemarket by the People's Republic of China (PRC). Up _o 1979, Guymine hadabout 85% of the RASC market; opera.ting as a monopoly through rationingsupply to its customers. In the mid-1970s, PRC entered the market with aninferior product but moved aggressively in pricing and sales efforts topenetrate the market. Guymine has now about 40% of the market. Theenterprise is cognizant of the problem and in 1983, with the assistance ofits external marketing agency has initiated a marketing strategy whichinvolves close contact with potential customers and the development of newproducts.

3.08 Government's Response. With a view to overcoming the technicalproblems confronting the bauxite sector, a number of foreign contractorsand consultants have been engaged in recent years to assist Guymine in theoperation of the industry. The industry has also continued, as notedabove, to retain the services of its foreign agent to assist in themarketing of bauxite products. Simultaneously the foreign exchangeconstraint of the industry has been relieved by the allocation of part ofthe Bank Group's Structural Adjustment Loan/Credit proceeds to the bauxitesector and by the re-introduction in 1983 of a retained foreign exchangeearnings account, both of which enable Guymine to obtain some of itsinputs. The Government is also seeking financial assistance from the EEC

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and the Bank for its proposed rehabilitation program. It is also arrangingfinancial and material assistance through technical cooperation agreementson bilateral basis. In an effort to reduce the industry's unit cost, theGovernment has proposed to reduce the social cost component of itsoperation by employing a 60/40 cost sharing formula between the CentralGovernment and/or the Regional administration and the industry for theprovision of medical facilities. (Issues related to the financialrestructuring of Guymine are discussed in Chapter IV.)

3.09 While these steps are useful and necessary and may contribute toimprove conditions, the piecemeal approach and slow pace at which the mainissues are dealt with are likely to be counterproductive. The short-termissues are management, marketing and organization which will not cost muchbut require deep commitment and rapid action on the part of the Governmentand Guymine. In the medium term, the rehabilitation of Guymine, in view ofnew product development and changing market conditions, should form themain preoccupation of the authorities. The need for an effectivecoordination of technical and financial assistance on a timely basis isparamount.

Sugar

3.10 Background. Cane sugar production, the oldest agriculturalindustry in Guyana was, until its nationalization between 1974-76, anentirely private sector enterprise. It was, and still is, run on aplantation basis with a fairly heavy dependence on lacor. In recent years,production and productivity has been falling as a result, inter alia ofgeneral decline in prices in world markets, severe foreign exchangeavailability which has limited needed rehabilitation, and generaladministrative problems. The industry has, however, been the main -hardcurrency' earner over the past three years and its short-term recovery isthe prime concern of the Government.

3.11 Wlen the Government nationalized the two foreign-ownedenterprises that constituted the sugar industry of the country, the GuyanaSugar Corporation Ltd. (GUYSUCO) was instituted to control its operationsincluding every aspect of production from growing sugar cane to itsprocessing and marketing. GUYSUCO owns an important fraction of thecultivable land of Guyana (about bO,U0O acres) and its farming operationsare carried out through ten estates. These estates each farm about 5,000acres every year and together produce betweer bO8 and 85Z of the sugarcane. The rest is produced mostly at three big private operations,although there are still about 2,500 private sugar cane growers in thecountry. GUYSUCO provides all the extension, research and marketingservices even to the small farmers outside its own estates.

3.12 The industry has faced a variety of production problems in recentyears. While the area planted with sugar cane has expanded in the last twodecades, sugar produced per acre has declined from 3.1 ton/acre in theearly 1960s to 2.1 ton/acre in the early 1980s. The labour strike of 1979resulted in an accumulation of over-age cane which, when processed, reducedmilling yields and substantial jump in the employment of Guysuco as some ofthe temporary personnel hired during the strike were given permanent

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status. Heavy rainfall patterns during the 1979-84 harvesting periodsdepressed sucrose content. The lack of experienced field labor has led toan increase in the amount of trash delivered to the mills. Smut and rusthave threatened the crop, requiring the replanting of disease-resistantvarieties. Field and milling machinery and equipment are alsodeteriorating at a rapid rate, despite increased emphasis on improvedmaintenance, reclamation and rebuilding.

3.13 Policy Response. Leaving aside the present circumstances inwhich the sugar industry is suffering the impact of a depressed worldmarket, GUYSUCO conveys the impression of being a well managed entity. Itnow faces a big challenge: the design and implementation of a program torestore its production capacity to historical levels in the presence of asevere foreign exchange scarcity. Recognizing this, the Corporation isexperimenting with alternative production methods. A mechanical tillageand replanting trial was carried out on 25,000 acres in 1980 and 1981.Experience from this exercise has shown that the key is precision landlevelling. Mechanical harvesting with two types of machines (choppers andwhole stalk) has been evaluated with the objective of systematic adoption,subject to foreign exchange availability.

3.14 More recently, the industry formulated a comprehensive program torevive production and improve efficiency. It includes:

(a) reduction of expenditure - expenditures on employment have beencurtailed through redundancy of 5,000 persons since 1980 and by theelimination of inessential expenditures such as payments for overtimeduring non-harvesting periods. Efforts are being made to further reducecosts through "direct purchasing of such inputs as fertilizers;

(b) implementation of essential repairs and capital expenditureprograms - this involves timely application of herbicides, pesticides andfertilizers; rehabilitation of in-field drains and dams; factoryrehabilitation and improvements in the replanting rates which have droppedfrom 15.9% in 1979 to only 10.5% in 1981; and

(c) organizational improvements - this may include improved inventorymanagement (ordering, storing and distribution procedures), refined andimproved husbandry.

3.15 The industry's efforts should be supported in the short-term bythe Government through an allocation of a higher proportion of foreignexchange retention than the existing 10%. This may contribute to a timelyrehabilitation of some of GUYSUCO's field and factory equipment.Furthermore, the problems of overcoming the shortage of cane cutters incertain estates and ensuring prompt transport of canes from field tofactory should be urgently resolved through temporary relocation ofpersonnel during harvesting. In the long term, although GUYSUCO isinterested in diversification and is currently engaged in the production ofcorn, beans, rice and cassava, as well as pilot development for fishfarming, its main expertise lies in sugar cultivation. Future expansion ofcane production for energy development would seem a distinct possibility; arecent Bank financed study indicates viability in a number of factories.

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Excess bagasse not required for distillation heating might be converted,along with excess bagasse from the existing factories into electricity tobe fed into the national grid. In the light of present nigh cost ofimported fuels in Guyana, this would seem preferable to other possible usesof waste products as animal feeds or particle board manufacture. Furtherstudies of the processes and costs need to be undertaken.

Rice

3.16 Basic Characteristics. Among the three main sectors of theeconomy, the rice sector is the only one whose output level during thesecond half of the 1970s was higher than it had been during the first halfof the decade. Nevertheless, after reaching a record 212,000 long tonsfrom a harvested area of about 350,000 acres in 1977, production fell to anaverage of only about 165,000 long tons from 250,000 acres during 1978-81.The industry's physical potential is likely to increase substantiallyfollowing the completion of ongoing irrigation and drainage schemes.Furthermore, rice is seen by the Government as having greater potential forexport growth in the immediate future than either of the two other majorexport commodities, bauxite and sugar.

3.17 Unlike that of cane sugar, the production of rice has always beenand remains a small-holder private enterprise activity. The crop was firstgrown by run-away slaves even before emancipation in 1834 but as anindustry rivalling sugar, rice was the work of Indian immigrants whointroduced new techniques and varieties into it. Production, however, didnot assume any commercial significance in export terms until the end of the19th century. Furthermore, the rice industry in Guyana is unusual in thatit is an almost completely mechanized industry of small farmers utilizingmodern equipment. By early 1980s, there were approximately 30,000 farmfamilies in Guyana who harvested around 220,000 acres of rices, or anaverage of 7 acres per farm.

3.18 The history of rice marketing practices in Guyana is also unusualas compared to most other rice regions. Until 1946, when the first largescale organized rice production program was started by the British, thiswas in a most unsatisfactory state. At that time they established a RiceMarketing Board as the sole marketing agency for rice. In May 1965, thenewly independent Guyanese Government took over this Board and continuedits basic practices. In 1969, it was replaced by the Guyana RiceCorporation which provided the same functions and acted as the sole legalauthority to buy and sell rice. In 1973, this board was replaced by theGuyana Rice Board (GRB) with similar but broader functions. It was thesole legal purchaser of milled rice, the sole seller and distributor ofmilled rice to domestic wholesale outlets and to all export markets, wasthe pr.ce-support agency purchasing paddy from farmers at minimum fixedprices, and provided certain services to rice farmers including theprocurement and distribution of inputs, the credit needs, the seedproduction program, the rice research program, extension services, operatedpaddy storage and drying centers to handle most of the crop, owned andoperated rice mills to mill most of it, and provided equipment services tosome of the farmers.

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3.19 Reorganization. The carrying out of all these functions by theGRB, whose efficiency was impaired by shortages of skilled technical andmanagerial manpower and its lack of accountability, posed a majorconstraint to realizing the country's significant potential. As part ofthe Government's structural adjustment program in 19b2, efforts were madeto drastically reduce its role in the industry. Some of its non-marketingfunctions (including the importation and distribution of inputs, theprovision of credit and of research and extension) were discontinued. Allof the overall marketing control were left unchanged. However, in December1984, the GRB was restructured into three corporate entities, viz theGuyana Rice Milling and Marketing Authority, the Guyana Rice Export Boardand the National Paddy and Rice Grading Centre. The main issues remainingto be resolved in 1985 include the establishment of the accounting, marketinformation, quality control, and domestic distribution system tocomplement the reorganization program.

3.20 Issues. Apart from the general constraints that affect all formsof agriculture in Guyana (notably research and extension services andcredit), three issues specific to the rice sector may be highlighted. Theyare: the probable impact of the reorganization of the sector, the need forhigh-quality rice and the development of a rice pricing and incentivesystem.

3.21 The rigid single-agency complete control that was followed in thepast gradually caused the rice industry to become inefficient andhigh-cost. The farmers were constrained by various regulations that madethem indifferent to new technology or procedures as there were fewincentives for improved productivity. The single board public storing,milling, and marketing system gradually eliminated most of the privatemillers and traders. The ongoing reorganization opens up, in a limitedway, a role for the private sector in the rice sector. However, therestructuring is not yet backed up by adequate supply of resources (e.g.milling capacity) to the private sector. The scope for competition, whichis perceived to promote efficiencies and improved services, may also beeffectively resLricted by the discretionary controls that are built intothe new Rice Bill cf 1984 (Regulation of Manufacturing and Marketing). Thenew proposals reduce the monopoly status of the public sector entities butthe basic principles of operations have not yet been substantially altered.

3.22 The need for high-quality rice will be an issue of importance inthe future as Guyana's production level substantially exceeds the demandsin the local and CARICOM markets. Consumer's in Guyana do acceptmedium-quality rice with up to 25Z broken grains and some impurities. TheCARICOM markets, however, require two different quality types: (a) long-grain translucent white rice with few impurities or red grains and a lowpercentage of broken grains, and (b) a light-colored aroma-free parboiledrice with no mixtures and a very low percentage of broken grains. Tosupply these demands, Guyana has found it necessary to operate a veryexpensive remilling, blending, and re-packaging system. If markets are tobe expanded beyond CARICOM outlets, it will be necessary to produce evenhigher quality rice than that obtained by this process. Quality riceproduction is determined by first producing high-quality paddy and second

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processing this paddy in the most efficient manner to maintain the initialquality of the paddy. The existing rice paddy procurement system and therice milling procurement and processing systems do not encourage theproduction of high quality rice and that produced is obtained only at anexcessively high cost. Changes are needed throughout the system to solvethis problem.

3.23 The ongoing rationalization of pricing policies in the sector mayprovide the required incentives for intensive farming, improvedproductivity, and the mobilization of additional lands for ricecultivation. As part of the Bank supported Structural Adjustment Program(1981-83), a number of price adjustments were implemented. Paddy pricespaid to farmers, which had increased by 12-15% in early 1981, were furtherincreased by 20% in early 1982. At the same time, rice purchase priceswere increased by 25-30%, thus improving miller's margins and domesticconsumer prices for rice by about 70%. In the course of 1982-83, parboiledrice purchase prices and domestic consumer prices were comparable with, oreven exceeded, (depressed) international rice price levels (at the officialexchange rate of GS3.00 to US$1.00). As part of the ongoing restructuringof the rice industry, the Government, with the assistance of theInter-American Development Bank, has adopted a formula for the periodicadjustment of paddy and rice prices in ord2r to improve producer margins.

B. Diversification and Role of Private Sector

Diversification

3.24 As noted above, Guyana's economy is based primarily on theproduction of bauxite, sugar and rice. The population and much of theeconomic activity are concentrated along a narrow coastal strip where sugarand rice are grown. With the exception of bauxite mining and associatedproduction, the hinterland remains economically undeveloped. Besides poordomestic production, the economic decline of recent years, could beattributed to the narrow production base of the economy and its failure towithstand the external shocks brought about by the second round of oilprice increases and weak international demand for bauxite products andsugar. The rapid decline in export earnings for bauxite and sugar fromUS$309 million in 1980 (constituting about 80% of total merchandiseexports) to US$151 million in 1983 (about 73% of total merchandise exports)accounts for the present foreign exchange shortage and the failure of theother sectors of the economy to grow because of the lack of spare parts andother imported inputs requiring foreign exchange.

3.25 In the short to medium term, the recovery program should aim atrestoring production levels in the bauxite/sugar sectors to at leastpre-1980 levels through policies outlined above. In the medium to longterm, policies should be oriented at expanding the productive base of theeconomy through diversification efforts in agriculture, forestry, fisheriesand mining (especially in gold and diamonds). The Government has initiateda number of efforts in these areas in recent years, which include promotingforeign private capital in the gold and diamond sectors. The forestry andthe mining sectors, nevertheless, provide the highest export potential inthe short to medium term. The promotion of private sector manufacturing is

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another high potential for supplementing the Government's efforts inachieving vertical integration, export expansion and diversification of theproductive base of the economy.

3.26 Forestry. The total forest area of Guyana has been estimated atabout 18.2 million ha (45 million ac), covering about 83% of the land.Exploitable timber in the forests is abundant; roughly one-half the forestarea consists of forests with 25 to 35 m3/ha of exploitable timber, ofwhich greenheart (ocotea rodiaci) is in great international demand formarine construction. Guyana presently exports 16 species (about 8%greenheart) and uses more than 30 additional species locally. Despite theconsiderable wood resources, the forestry sector contributes less than 1%of GDP and 2% of total merchandise exports. Export earnings from timberhas declined from the peak of G$16.2 million (US$6.4 million equivalent) in1980 to G$13.7 million (US$3.3 million equivalent) in 1984. The potentialfor quadrupling the export earnings in the medium term is very high, givenappropriate policies and investment program.

3.27 The Government's policy in the forestry sector is designed toincrease both public and private sector participation in forestrydevelopment and restructuring the tenure relating to forestry concession.Recent public sector participation has included the establishment of theDemerara Woods Limited (with capacity of 18 million board meters per annum)with external support including IBRD/IDA. In addition, efforts have beendirected at the production of prefabricated housing, rehabilitation of theGuyana Timbers Limited and the improvement in administration, training andresearch in the forestry sector. Similarly, with respect to the privatesector, financial resources for sawmilling and logging equipment, mainly toreplace absolete equipment, have come from external assistance, includingCIDA, the EEC and the IDB, channelled mainly through the GuyanaAgricultural and Industrial Bank (GAIBANK). The Interior ForestryIndustries, a private sector operation currently under way, with a capacityof 20 million board meters per annum, is expected to significantly increasethe country's exports of timber products.

3.28 Utilization of state-owned forest land in Guyana used to be basedon forest concessions which conferred exclusive rights for exploitation ofa defined area. This arrangement was replaced in 1977 by a Timber SalesAgreement, which confers rights to a firm to cut a specified group ofspecies within an area, according to a logging and utilization plan agreedbetween the firm and the Forestry Department (now the Forestry Commissionunder the Ministry of Forestry). In case the recipient of a Timber SalesAgreement does not log the total obligatory species and volume, othercompanies can be given cutting rights in the same area. The primaryobjective is to extract and utilize the highest possible proportion of thesecondary species in each concession area by gradually increasing theirshare in the cutting list. However, the Guyana Forestry Commission, theprincipal public sector institution responsible for coordinating activitiesin this sector, is constrained by financial difficulties as well asresponsibilities considerably larger than its capabilities. It isrecommended that given its financial constraints, the Government shouldreview the role of the Forestry Commission in terms of its supervisory andmonitoring duties as well as its market intelligence and general services.

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3.29 The forestry industry in Guyana has historically produced logswhich have been sold in the round, hand hewn into poles (round) or piles(square or round), sawn into lumber, or converted to shingles. Lumber hasbeen further processed by molding and planing and, to a limited extent, foruse in the construction of prefabricated housing units. Uther conversionof timber is limited to the small-scale production of furniture for localuse. In order to increase the value added in the sector, the developmentthrust should seek to emphasize improving the management of extraction fromthe forest, on improving sawmilling, wood treating and wood curingfacilities and on expanding export markets (especially, extra-regional) fora wide variety of wood items. The marketing strategy should includepromotional efforts involving exhibitions of Guyana's available woodproducts.

3.30 Mining. Besides bauxite, Guyana has a potential for theproduction and export of gold, diauond, manganese, feldspar and columbite-tentalite. Of the above, preliminary estimates of annual productionpotential are: 375,000 oz for Gold, 70U,000 ct for diamond and 200,00Utons for manganese. Estimates for the other minerals are not available.Gold and diamonds provide the highest short-term export potential as theframework for their exploitation is well established. The current declaredproduction levels for gold and diamonds are about 11,000 oz and 10,000 ctrespectively, although actual output levels might be considerably higher.The current export revenues for gold and diamonds are approximately G$5million and G$0.6 million respectively, far below their potential.

3.31 The current production structures for both gold and diamonds arerelatively primitive. They are handled by private individuals ranging fromone-man operations to a well organized enterprise. Raw gold is bought bythe Guyana Gold Board which releases allocations to local jewellers andexports the remaining through the Ministry ot Finance, mainly in the UKmarket. Raw diamonds are processed by four diamond cutting a.d polishingfactories for local consumption and export. In view of the unstructurednature of production and processing, it is believed large quantities ofboth gold and diamonds are, in recent years, illegally exported toneighbouring countries and the Caribbean spurred up by the shortage offoreign exchange. The Government is in the process of restrnr.turing thesector and in recent years has been promoting external investment in thesector. Enterprises from Canada, Yugoslavia, Korea and Brazi have beenlicensed to exploit gold, while a US private firm is currently examiningthe diamond potential of the country. Efforts to promote private externalinvestment in this sector should be pursued vigorously.

Promotion of Export Manufacturing

3.32 Potential. The manufacturing sector in Guyana, exclusive ofbauxite processing and sugar and rice milling, is very small accounting forless than 10% of GDP and export earnings. About two-thirds of thismanufacturing activity is carried out by private sector enterprises. Whilethe manufacturing sector has grown much faster than the rest of the economyduring the past decade (except for the past three years), its contributionto the economy has remained far below its potential, which is considerable

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given Guyana's natural resource endowment and the availability and cost ofmanpower. The difficult foreign exchange and power situation in recentyears have posed significant constraints to manufacturing development.However, the fundae ntal cause of the sector's lack of dynamism has been alack of confidence by the private sector (both local and foreign), theoverregulation of the economy and the uncertain investment climate.

3.33 The sector is faced with some controls and regulations, both dejure and de facto, e.g. with regard to trading and pricing of inputs andoutputs, many of which are faced by both private and public sectormanufacturing enterprises. In addition, it is claimed that controls andregulations are not always applied in a consistent and predictable fashion,which leads to considerable confusion. The uncertainty of the investmentclimate in the past found its base in the nationalizations of the early1970s, the lack of a clear definition of the activities opened to tLeprivate sector (in spite of the adoption of an investment code in 1979),and the perception that Government actions were not always consistent withits stated intention to seek an adequate role for the private se-toralongside the public and cooperative sectors.

3.34 Government Response. The Government recognizes that there is aneed to reduce or eliminate the uncertainties about the private sector'srole that remain in spite of the adoption of the investment code in 1979.As part of its structural adjustment program (1981-83) it put in place anumber of export promotion and industrial development policies, besides theestablishment of an Export Development Fund (EDF) with the Bank's financialsupport. They included the establishment of a no-fund import licensingscheme in 1982, which allows the importation of up to US$3,000 in spareparts and machinery without licensing provided no use is made of officialforeign exchange. The Government has also granted a remission ofconsumption taxes on all inputs for manufactured goods intended for exportsand has implemented a foreign exchange retention scheme for producers ofnon-traditional exports. The latter scheme has, however, not beeneffective because most of Guyana's exports go to the CARICOM market and theneed is for hard currency. The Government has also established an exportunit within the Ministry of Trade. An Export promotion Council andIndustrial Promotion Council (both with private sector representation) havealso been set up but as a result of cabinet changes in 1984, the regularmeetings that were held between representatives of the privatemanufacturing sector and the Government have temporarily been discontinued.

3.35 Policy Alternatives. Despite these efforts, a number of otherfactors that require Government's attention affect the viability of thesector. They include the impact of the consumption tax structure, andGovernment policies on enclave-type manufacturing. In recent years, theprofitability of manufacturing has been negatively affected by theintroduction of consumption taxes on both imported inputs and sales in thedomestic market. The tax on imported inputs has affected the internationalcompetitiveness of Guyana's manufactured exports. The Government hasprovided a drawback of such taxes for a limited number of exporters on anad hoc basis. Consideration could be given to extending the drawback toall exporters of manufactured goods, preferably by linking the actualdrawback to actual export earnings, which would reduce the *dif*istrative

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complexity inherent in most drawback systems and discourage, to someextent, illegal exports. The implementation of the above proposal howevermay affect the income base of the tax structure and may be inconsistentwith the CARICOM trade arrangements. A further review may be required onthis issue.

3.36 The formulation and adoption of an appropriate investment codewhich clearly spells out the role of the private sector (both domestic andforeign) will be an important contribution to improving the investmentclimate. Such a project was initiated under the Bank supported Structuraladjustment program (1981-83). A foreign consultant financed under theSecond Technical Assistance Loan (1949-GUA) submitted a preliminary reportto the Government in mid-1983. While the Government has stated itsintention to discontinue the project because of cost overrun and domesticpersonnel constraints, a further rethinking of the Government decision isrecommnded in view ot the project's positive implication for improvingexternal perception of the Government's willingness to promote privatesector initiatives in the development process. A new investment code willalso be particularly useful in the context of Guyana if it is associatedwith (i) a consolidation or reduction of public sector activities inmanufacturing and related activities; (ii) a general streamlining andsimplification of the regulations which affect the manufacturing sector;and (iii) the consolidation of a rational system of incentives to encourageexport manufacturing and efficient import substitution.

3.37 The Government has generally favoured the development of anatural resource-based manufacturing sector with strong backward linkages.The development of such a manufacturing structure has medium to long termimplications. In the short to medium term, increased attention could alsobe given to the promotion of assembly-type enclave export industries whichcould make an important contriDution to alleviate unemployment, developindustrial skills required for further manufacturing development, anddemonstrate to potential external investors that manufacturing in Guyana isa feasible and viable proposition. Barbados' experience in this area is atestimony of the substaatial role of assembly-type enclave exportindustries in the medium-term development process. The setting up ofinstitutions to facilitate this effort is a prerequisite for success.

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CiAPTER IV - ROLE OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR

Overview

4.01 Until the late 196Us, the economy of Guyana was relativelydominated by the private sector. The public sector (especially during thepre-independent period) was small and played mainly a controlling role inthe development process. Public agencies provided few basic services(water and sewerage, for example) and their investments were small andconcentrated in the main urban areas. The situation altered when theGovernment began to play a more active role in the economy. The share ofpublic consumption in the GDP almost doubled during 1970-79 and publicinvestment outstripped private investment (see Table 9). In addition tothe provision of basic services (infrastructure, education, health andutilities), the Government became the prime agent in the economy's mainsectors (bauxite, and sugar) and is involved in other wide range ofproductive activities. These include enterp-ises producing alcoholicbeverages, processed food, soaps and detergents, paints, forest products,printing, fishing, construction and retailing and distribution. Over 9OZof all official exports are marketed through state controlledorganizations. Furthermore, the public sectors purview over economicactivity and future investment is extended by import license and foreignexchange allocation procedures and price control systems.

Table 9: Share of Public Sector in Consumption/Investment

Expenditures as Percentageof GDP (current market prices) 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84

Total Consumption 74.7 77.8 79.6 79.7 78.4Public 12.1 15.3 19.2 24.6 30.5Private 62.6 62.5 60.4 55.1 47.9

Total Investment 20.3 26.0 23.5 30.0 27.8Public 5.2 7.5 13.0 21.3 22.4Private 15.1 18.5 10.5 8.7 5.4

Source: Bank of Guyana/State Planning Secretariat.

4.02 The Government's increased dominance on the economy has placedincreasing demands on its administrative capacity to ensure adequatecoordination and control. In part, this additional responsibility mayexplain the gradual deterioration in public finances and the increasedincidence of institutional, managerial and organizational bottleneckswithin the public sector. A major contributory factor to the economicmalaise of Guyana in recent years has therefore been the increasinginability the public sector to manage the vast resources available toit.

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4.03 Public sector finances have deteriorated steadily since 1978, asgrowth in current revenues have not kept pace with the growth in currentexpenditures. P-iblic sector savings became negative in 1981, and theoverall deficit has widened from 13.3Z of GUP in 1978 to 60.2Z in 1984. Tosome extent, the full impact of this rising deficit on prices and thebalance of payments has been mitigated by the fact that a significant partof the increasing domestic interest payments are retained within the Bankof Guyana in the form of undistributed profits. This effectively reducesthe expansion of net domestic credit. Prior to 1981, the publiccorporations as a group were able to provide surpluses sufficient to coverthe deficits of the Central Government. However, reduced internationaldemand for the output of Guyana's two major public corporations in thebauxite and sugar sectors, has meant a substantial decline in revenues fromthe public corporations. Furthermore, Central Government revenues expandedat a much slower pace in recent years as a result of diminishing realeconomic activity and an increase in the volume of transactions undertakenin the parallel market.

Table 10: Public Sector Savings

(As Percentage of GDP)

1978 1979 1980 i981 1982 1983 1984

Current Account Balance 4.3 4.1 2.1 -18.4 -19.9 -26.7 -38.6Central Government -4.7 -7.7 -10.8 -15.5 -15.0 -22.7 -32.9Public Corporations 9.0 11.8 1Z.9 -2.9 -4.8 -4.0 -5.7

0},erall Deficit -13.3 -16.8 -22.7 -46.7 -47.2 -51.9 -60.2

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 5.6.

A. Role of the Central Government

4.04 Guyana has a centralized government structure. The delegation ofauthority by the central government to the local government has been arecent phenomenon. Even with the development of the local governmentsystem, they are seen as entities reflecting a centralized objective andacting merely as implementing agencies. Consequently, the CentralGovernment and its agencies have dominated the economic system bothadministratively and financially. The public enterprises are alsosimilarly centrally directed in terms of policy but have some managerialautonomy with respect to pricing and employment.

4.05 As part of the overall expansion of the public sector, theCentral Government in the post-1970 era has intensified its developmentefforts. Government services have been expanded, especially foragriculture, rural development, education and other social services. Aboveall, infrastructure expenditures by the Central Government have increasedsignificantly, and large capital transfers have taken place to thecorporate sector in order to develop new enterprises. Local governments

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have been encouraged, especially over the past three years, to participateactively in development through direct financial assistance. Thesedevelopments, in part, have been made possible by the increase in revenueswhich was brought about by the sugar boom of the mid-1970 and the relativeprofitability of the newly acquired public enterprises.

Central Government Financing

4.06 Revenues. To assess the Central Government's revenue perfor-mance, the tax ratio, the marginal tax rate and the tax bouyancy areestimated for group of periods covering 1973-1984 (Table 11). Guyana's taxratio is relatively high, rising, on average, from about 25Z of GDP during1977-80 to about 32Z in 1981-84. The marginal tax rate which indicates theproportion of additional national product that the Government has been ableto divert to the public sector is also relatively high. The high rate forthe 1981-84 period is accounted for by the rapid decline in GDP during theperiod and the substantial increase in non-tax revenues. As a summaryindex the tax bouyancy, which reflects the percentage change in revenueswith respect to a percentage change in GDP, supports the general observa-tion that the Government's performance in revenue mobilization has beenreasonably successful. The high level of tax effort has been possiblethrough numerous discretionary tax policies. During 1974-77, the imposi-tion of the sugar levy, aimed at the windfall profits of the sector duringthat period, accounted for slightly over 45% of total revenues from directtaxes. In subsequent years new indirect tax measures were introduced in1978, 1980, and each subsequent year.

Table 11: Measures of Tax Effort

(In percentage)

1973-76 1977-80 1981-84

Revenue/GDP 34.6 30.0 36.7Tax/GDP 31.3 25.6 31.8Direct Taxes/GD? 20.0b/ 13.6 14.5Indirect Taxes/GDP 11.3 12.0 17.3

Non-Tax Rev./GDP 3.3 4.4 4.9Marginal Tax Rate 41.1 21.8 62.4Direct Taxes 27.Ob/ 5.6 18.1Indirect Taxes 14.1 16.2 44.3

Tax Bouyancy a/ 131.3 85.2 196.2

a! Computed by dividing the marginal tax rate by the tax/GDP ratio.b/ The high level is accounted for by the sugar levy resulting from the

sugar boom of the 1975-76.

Source: Staff estimates.

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4.07 In 0.n effort to mobilize further the revenues to support itsdevelopment program the Government is committed to expand its revenuebase. In the 1985 Budget statement, a number of new tax instruments wereinstituted. They include:

(a) annual license fees for television receiving sets (at G$200 perannum per set);

(b) annual license fee for television transmitter systems (atG$40,000 per annum per system);

(c) annual license fees for television Dish" receiver systems; i.e.,where reception is entirely for personal use (at G,i250 per annum persystem);

(d) a monthly 'sticker" system for taxi operators (at G$100 per monthper vehicle); and

(e) an ad valorem export tax on shrimp export (at IOX).

In addition, the Government is exploring alternative measures to improvethe efficiency of tax administration and collection.

4.08 Three major factors, however, will continue in the short term toimpinge upon the capacity of the Central Government to raise currentrevenues. First, although precise estimates of the extent of the parallelmarket are impossible, it has become clear since 1982, that parallel marketactivities and transactions in Guyana have been increasing. If parallelmarket activities continue to increase, the scope for Central Governmentcurrent revenue enhancement via income and consumption based taxes woulddiminish. Second, the severe foreign exchange shortage that the country ispresently experiencing has reduced tax revenues accruing from internationaltrade. Third, the declining performance of the public corporations hasreduced the flow of dividends to the Central Government. The Government'sefforts for harnessing new revenue sources should be sought in those areasthat have a limited parallel market activity. This may include the need tolevy some charges for specific Government services, such as health andeducation. Notwithstanding these efforts, improvements in current revenuewould only be achieved by substantial macro economic policy adjustmentsthat allow prices to reflect real resource scarcities and as a result,forestall further growth in parallel market economic activity.

4.09 Expenditures. The main source of fiscal problems of the CentralGovernment may be traced to the rapid increase in expenditures. TotalCentral Government expenditures have risen substantially over the past fiveyears, with the level in 1984 being almost double that in 1980, in nominalterms. The main cause of the rapid growth in Central Governmentexpenditures has been the rise in domestic interest payments. The largeinterest expenses in recent years reflect the compounding effects of theCentral Government taking over (as equity participation) the large deficitsof the public corporation. In 1984, the Government awarded an average of

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15% wage increase to the public sector. While the wage increase has had anegative effect on the fiscal deficit, it should be noted that there hadbeen no wage increase since 1979, and given the high rate of inflation, theincrease is negative in real terms.

Table 12: 'Central Government Expenditures

(% of Gross Revenues)

1974 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

Total Expenditures 111.6 205.5 208.3 285.3 227.2 281.0Current 81.8 134.9 139.2 138.9 157.6 178.0(of which Goods & Salaries) 52.5 80.1 80.1 71.2 70.3 81.0(Interest) 13.1 36.2 4.6 52.4 75.1 85.4Capital 29.8 70.6 69.1 146.4 69.6 103.0(of which Transfers) 5.9 30.1 19.2 101.3 26.3 59.4

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 5.2.

Policy on Deficit Reduction

4.10 The Central Government's overall deficit has been financed inrecent years, largely through domestic borrowing, especially from theCentral Bank of Guyana. Substantial recourse has also been made onresources of the National Insurance Scheme and various pension funds andbonds. These resources are, nevertheless, limited and further access tothem are counterproductive because of their "crowding out effect. TheGovernment is cognizant of the fact that a lasting solution to the problemlies in expenditure reduction. Efforts in this area, however, have beenlargely unsuccessful. In 1977-78, total expenditures were reduced by aboutone third as part of fiscal retrenchment program that reduced capitalexpenditures and those on goods and services. However, by 1978-80, totalexpenditures expanded rapidly as a result of increases in capitalexpenditures--the cutback in expenditures in 1977-78 represented, for themost part, the postponement or rephasing of major investment projects.Similarly, since 1982, attempts to reduce outlays for wages and salariesthrough a wage freeze and labor retrenchment program (during October1981-mid-1982, approximately 17% of Central Government workforce was laidoff to reduce overstaffing) have been largely ineffective. TheGovernment's new efforts to contain expenditures are now directed at (a)the management of the domestic debt, and (b) improved efficiency throughthe proposed regionalization program which may involve the reallocation oflabor resources.

4.11 Management of Domestic Debt. As noted above, the main element inthe high expenditure growth in recent years is the interest on domesticdebt. Up to 1981, the level of domestic debt was manageable; since then ithas tripled from G01.8 billion to G$4.5 billion by December 1984. New

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borrowings have mainly been in short-term securities with the effect thatbetween 1970 and 1984, outstanding short-term securities moved from 34% to78% of the total domestic debt. The characteristics of short-term debt arehigher interest rates and short maturities which compound the alreadyprecarious financial position of the Central Government. In 1984, theGovernment made the first attempt to address the issue by encouragingholders of Government securities to reinvest their principal and interestpayments in two-year securities. But because of delays by parliament inamending the relevant legislation and other bureaucratic problems, theproposal was not effective. The Government has also proposed therescheduling of treasury bills through their conversion into fixed-dateddebentures of 3-24 months.

4.12 While these proposals are steps in the right direction, theyare not backed by an adequate review of the structure of existing domesticdebt and the implications for the future. Proper planning of domestic debtmanagement involving differential interest rates and maturities requires acomprehensive data base. At present, the size of the domestic debt to beaffected by the above proposals and the interest savings involved are notclear. Since the proposals are voluntary, they may not be effective in thefuture when resources are needed by the relevant lending agencies andindividuals for either their internal use during the recovery process orfor alternative investment purposes. What is needed is a rescheduling ofshort term debt into medium and long term debt.

4.13 Labor Reallocation. The Government also plans to containexpenditure growth through improved efficiency. In this effort, it intendsto:

(a) reassess the roles of the various ministries with a view to theredeployment of labor resources to the regions. It is hoped that this willstrengthen the implementation capabilities and efficiency of the regionaladministration which are involved in many of the Government's developmentprograms; and

(b) improve productivity of labor through organizational andmotivational changes in the public sector.

While it is not clear the exact nature of programs that will be formulatedto achieve the above objectives, they will not in the short-term lead to asignificant reduction in employment costs because of the relocation costsinvolved. In the long-term, if properly implemented, the resultantproductivity increase may enhance the viability of the proposals.Furthermore, given the prevailing shortage of skilled personnel in theCentral Government, the implementation of the above proposals requirescareful planning and monitoring. There is also the need to increase thepace of program implementation in new areas of policy changes in theadministrative structure of the Central Government, the setting of newpriorities for current and capital outlays and the formulation of taxreforms.

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The State as Controller

4.14 While the Government has a pervasive influence over the economyvia its directly productive activities and the scale of operations of theCentral Government, its control over the allocation of resources is furtherextended by the administrative control of some prices and the allocation offoreign exchange. In the case of prices, there is a system o pricecontrol administered by the Mini_:.y of Trade and Consumer Protection. Asof February 1985, there was a list of 39 broad categories of items thatwere subject to controls either via direct price setting or controls onmark up levels. These items, together with price control on some services,cover about 40% of the CPI basket of commodities. The Government'scapacity to monitor prices is, however, very limited, which together withthe reduced availability of many items at 'official' prices, has meant thatthe impact of price controls on resource allocation is limited although itmay provide the incentives for parallel market activities.

4.15 With respect to foreign exchange, the allocation of scarceresources is administrated on the basis of sectoral and individual firmpriority considerations. The main goals of the system are to conserveforeign exchange, modify consumer tastes and support local industry, andtherefore to give to those agencies that are efficient and which generateforeign exchange. In recent years, heavy external debt servicingobligations in the face of limited "hard currency' export inflows haveplaced a considerable burden on the allocation process and affected itssmooth operation.

B. Public Enterprises: State as Entrepreneur

Structure and Performance

4.16 The non-financial public.enterprises in Guyana comprise about 34corporations. They are engaged in activities which include bauxite mining,sugar and rice production and marketing, agro-based food production, deepsea trawling and shrimping, heavy engineering including ship building,broadcasting and communications, air transport and commercial operations.The corporations are organized under two holding companies: (a) theBauxite Development Corporation (Bidco) which controls the Guyana MiningEnterprise (Guymine), the Guyana Construction corporation (Guyconstruct),Guytrade and Guybulk; and (b) the Guyana State Corporations (Guystac),which controls all the other corporations. Three corporations, Guymine,Guyana Sugar Corporation (Guysuco) and the Guyana Rice Board (currentlybeing restructured) are the most important. Together, they account forabout 50X of the operating revenues and expenditures of the corporationsand their weak performance in recent years has accounted for the risingcurrent account deficit of the public corporations.

4.17 Since 1981, the performance of the public corporations hassteadily deteriorated, with a continual growth of the operating deficit toa level constituting 32.3% of the consolidated public sector currentaccount deficit. The worsening of the financial performance isattributable primarily to a difficulties experienced by Guymine and

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Guysuco. The difficulties include a weak international demand for bauxiteproducts and sugar, technical and managerial problems that have inhibitedoutput, and scarcity of necessary imported raw materials, spare parts andcapital goods.

Table 13: Performance of Public Corporations

(G$ million)

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984Operating Balance 177.9 172.1 198.5 -56.0 -99.8 -158.9 -163.9of whichGuymine/Bidco 79.0 56.0 83.U -59.0 -95.0 -139.0 -104.0Guysuco -4.6 12.4 17.6 -68.2 -78.7 -104.0 -87.9GRB 30.4 3.4 0.6 1.3 -1i.1 -9.8 3.0

Capital Expenditure 102.2 114.0 117.6 115.8 87.6 67.2 80.8Guymine/Bidco 26.0 66.0 49.0 21.0 10.0 1.0 1.0Guysuco 23.8 13.3 14.8 15.8 18.1 9.4 19.1GRB 3.7 3.9 8.2 9.4 4.7 b.0 3.4

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 5.5.

4.18 Apart from the production difficulties being experienced by thethree main corporations, all of the others, except the commercial entitiesand the NIS, encountered extreme difficulty in 1983 and 1984 in maintainingtheir output levels. Capacity utilization averaged approximately 35%, withmany plants operating below 20%. The prime cause for these productiondifficulties has been the lack of spare parts and imported inputs becauseof the shortages of foreign exchange. Costs of operations have also beenadversely affected. In order to maintain even low production levels, thevarious corporations have had to resort to considerable improvization,which involved using expensive and less efficient substitutes. In someinstances the corporations have had to resort to the parallel market toobtain spare parts at higher than the controlled prices. Some corporationsclaim they have endeavored to substitute labor for capital, with resultanthigh costs and low productivity.

Government's Response

4.19 In order to arre3t the rising deficit of the corporations and tolimit transfers from the Central Government, the Government has proposed:(a) organizational restructuring of Guystac and the Guyana Rice Board, and(b) financial restructuring of Guymine. These efforts are the result of anextensive review of the major corporations (Guymine and GKB) with theassistance of the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)and a review of the Guystac by external consultants, financed from theGovernment's own resources.

4.20 Organizational Restructuring. The Government's program proposesthe restructuring of Guystac (excluding GRB and Guysuco) into four groups,viz utilities, agriculture-based entities, commercial companies I and II.

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Each group would be controlled by a Supervisory Council, responsible forgeneral policy guidance and control. A single secretariat is proposed toservice these councils, to be formed from the existing GuystacSecretariat. Each corporation Js to enter into a Performance Contract withits appropriate Supervisory Council, for which the manager of theCorporation will be held accountable upon periodic review. The councilswould be responsible for approving the investment budget, the operatingbudget and the medium-term plans of the corporation. Specific details ofindividual performance contracts have not yet been completed; it istherefore not clear the degree of autonomy that the management of thecorporations will have.

4.21 In principle, the desire to monitor closely the performance ofindividual corporations is commendable. At this time, however, it is farfrom clear whether the management of the corporation will be able tooperate flexibly in response to changing market realities, or will findthat specific conditions within their performance contracts severely limittheir range of discretionary activity. If the latter, then the hope forefficiency may prove unattainable, particularly if the Supervisory Councilsfind themselves unable to authorize mid-term changes in the PerformanceContract as a result of higher level policy prescriptions. A closelyrelated issue which may also require policy direction is the way in whichoperating surpluses are to be dealt with in future: should the individualenterprises be allowed to reinvest earnings (either in its main line ofbusiness or in new and unrelated fields of production) or should at leastsome net earnings be transferred to the Budget of the Central Government?In the past, the lack of policy with respect to the above has affected theexpansion of enterprises during favourable business environment.

4.22 The restructuring of the Guyana Rice Board into three separateentities has been discussed in para. 3.19 above. The exercise formed partof an overall reorganization of the rice sector under an IDB financedprogram. The immediate financial implication of the reorganization is toimprove the cost structure of the three entities through the elimination ofoverstaffing. Except for 1982 and 1983 when GRB incurred deficits on itsoperations it has generally showed a surplus, partly as the result of lowerprices it paid for paddy in the past. The reorganization should helpimprove the finances of the new agencies. The only unresolved issue is theadditional constraint on the limited management personnel in the publicsector that the establishment of three new entities would pose.

4.23 Financial Restructuring. A proper financial restructuring of thecorporations should form an integral basis of the recovery program. At themoment no detailed analysis has been done for all the corporations exceptfor Guymine. Proposals with respect to Guymine included: (a) conversionof deficit into equity; (b) conversion of deficit into preferred stockwhich is cumulative and redeemable; (c) conversion of deficit intopreferred stock which is automatically converted into a loan at some pointin time; and (d) conversion of deficit into a convertible loan. TheGovernment in 1984, adopted the second option in respect to Guymine. Whilethis effort is commendable, it does not constitute a complete financialrestructuring. One of the main weaknesses of Guymine's finances is the

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lack of working capital and any restructuring program should cater forthis. A comprehensive financial restructuring of Guymine (and thus theother financially weak corporations) would require: (a) conversion intoequity, or other instruments, of existing deficit; (b) the provision of areasonable level of working capital; and (c) rescheduling of both domesticand external debt. Finally, a close review of the corporations, especiallythe smaller ones in agro-based food productian indicates a substantialscope for divestiture and closure without affecting the public sectorscontrol of the economy. In view of the scarcity of management personnel inGuyana, divestiture and closure are alternative options for containing therapid growth of the public sector.

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CHAPTER V - LEVEL AND ALLOCATION OF INVESTMENT

A. Overview of Investment Needs

Past Trend in Investment

5.01 A striking feature of recent developments in Guyana has been thehigh level of investment relative to output--the investment GDP ratio rosefrom about 23% in 1970 to 37% in 1976 and remained, on average, above 30Ztill 1982 when it fell to 27% and declined thereafter. The estimate of theincremental output/capital ratio for the period 1974-83 is negativeindicating a low level of marginal efficiency of capital in Guyana.Unfortunately there are no data available on the sectoral allocation ofinvestment during the period, so it is not possible to pinpoint the reasonfor what appears to be a relatively inefficient use of resources.Nevertheless, a large share of fixed investment (about 80%), especiallyafter 1971 was concentrated in the public sector so that analysis of thesectoral composition of the public sector investment will provide aninsight into the causes of the inefficiency of investment in Guyana.

5.02 Table 14 presents the sectoral allocation of public sectorinvestment for 1978-1984. The data highlight several characteristics ofinvestment in the public sector: (a) investments in agriculture--mainly inirrigation systems-have accounted for an average 37% of total publicinvestment in recent years; (b) the mining sector (especially bauxite whichwas the main foreign exchange earner) has seen a significant decline ininvestment since 1980; and (c) industry has also seen a relative decline inpublic investment, although government efforts have been constrained inrecent years by the shortage of foreign exchange. The public sectorinvestment in irrigation systems and in agriculture, in general, has notyielded adequate results, in part because of inadequate pricing policies inthe past. Similarly, public investment in manufacturing has been beset bythe general inefficiencies of the public corporations, poor projectexecution and the absence of working capital. Finally, almost one-third oftotal public sector investment program (PSIP) consisted of numerous smalldomestically financed projects which were not properly evaluated beforeimplementation and whose execution extended over an unusually long periodof time and presented a continuous drain on limited resources withoutassociated output benefits.

5.03 The growth of public sector investment expenditures reflected theGovernment's policy of a reduced role of the private sector through furthernationalization and the establishment of non-financial state enterprises,the expansion of social services, and an optimistic assessment of theavailability of resources. While consistent with the objective of makingthe public sector the main engine of growth within its overall developmentthrust, the public sector investment program failed to consider theconstraints of the economy's managerial (manpower) and absorptivecapacity. Thus, while expenditures rose rapidly, physical project

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Table 14: Sectoral Allocation of Public Sector Capital Expenditure

(In percentage)

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

I. Productive Sectors 5U.5 58.9 64.0 58.U 59.0 45.9 52.8_Agric. Forestry & Fishery 29.6 26.1 32.6 39.0 46.9 40.6 41.3Industry 9.0 11.5 17.7 13.8 7.8 4.9 7.3Mining & Quarrying 11.8 21.3 13.5 4.9 4.0 0.3 4.2Tourism - - 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -

II. Physical Infrastructure 32.9 19.5 19.0 25.5 25.7 1Z.8 15.4Power 13.4 3.4 7.9 5.2 8.b 2.0 3.0Transport & Communicationa/ 19.5 16.1 11.1 20.3 17.1 1U.8 12.4

III. Social Infrastructure 6.7 9.1 11.1 11.4 13.7 13.7 9.8Education & Culture 5.2 6.3 7.3 6.0 6.4 6.7 5.3Health 0.1 1.2 2.2 2.4 3.8 4.6 3.1Water & Sewerage - 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.3Housing 0.1 1.1 0.8 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.1

IV. Other 9.9 12.5 5.9 5.1 1.6 27.6 22.0

a/ Includes expenditures on sea and river defense.

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 5.8.

implementation was beset by major manpower constraints that impeded thecompletion of many projects on a timely basis and led to considerable costoverrun.

Prioritization of Investment

5.04 In 1980, following the establishment of the State PlanningCommission, the Government in close cooperation with the World Bank,embarked on a review of the medium-term development requirements and theidentification of projects consistent with the objectives of the Governmentand cognizant of the expected availability of financing. This reviewformed part of the preparation of the program of institutional and policyreforms that was supported by the Structural Adjustment Loan/Credit. Theprogram involved the continuation of ongoing projects with a renewed Gover-nment commitment to the improvement in the efficiency of project executionin keeping with a development strategy which envisaged exports as the majorengine of growth. The program aimed primarily at increasing the volume andquality of production for exports and upgrading essential supporting infra-structure. While the program was generally appropriate in terms of magni-tude and composition, the projected financial resources were overly-optimistic, particularly with respect to public sector savings. The severeshortage of counterpart funds hampered progress on many projects. Theactual inflow of external resources also fell short of expectation, inpart, because of the unavailability of domestic counterpart funds,administrative delays and the slow pace of physical project implementation.

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5.05 The focus now should be on the completion of ongoing projects aswell as on the productive use of existing capital stock. In the presenceof scarce resources, prioritization of the investment program isparamount. The Government is cognizant cof the limitation of resources andhas adopted a methodology for project selection in its 1985 budget (seepara. 5.07). The policy thrust emphasizes agriculture (including forestryand fisheries), supporting infrastructure, and manufacturing, particularlywith a view to expand export. A basic limitation of the Government's newthrust is the lack of direct and definite recognition (as in recent past)in the selection criteria, for the need of minimum rehabilitation-typeinvestments that will be required to achieve a recovery of output of themain enterprises, particularly sugar and bauxite.

B. The 1985 Investment Program

Program Level and Composition

5.06 Because of the uncertainty surrounding resource inflows tosupport the public sector investment, the program for 1985 is of necessityrestricted to ongoing projects of medium term duration with identifiedexternal support and short-term programs of major domestic importance.Projected levels and sectoral allocation of future investment are notavailable. The public sector investment as reflected in the 1985 budgetenvisages expenditures -of G5748 million, which is some 142X above the levelof actual expenditure for 1984. This level of investment expenditures isclearly unattainable given identified sources of finance (see below).

5.07 Project Selection. For selecting projects which constituted the1985 central Government investment program, projects were classified aseither -critical' or -other-. Critical projects were those whosenon-implementation, according to the State Planning Secretariat, would giverise to intolerable' results. The criteria for determining what isintolerable results were not defined. For the "other" projects, the agencymaking the proposal was expected to rate each project, using a rank scoreof one to ten, on the basis of twelve unranked criteria which embodynational development and welfare priorities and the availability of publicsector financial resources. The individual scores were then aggregated bythe State Planning Secretariat by applying different weights to the twelvecriteria, in effect ranking them.

5.08 It is not clear from the list of proposed projects whether any ofthe ongoing projects were rejected. Since the criterion for selectingcritical- projects was not defined as rigorously as that for otherprojects, a considerable high element of discretion appeared to prevail.It is recommended that for a comprehensive review of the PSIP, themethodology for ranking should be applied to all ongoing and proposedprojects for the purpose of making decision on phasing-out the ongoingprogram. Furthermore, the methodology for project selection would alsorequire refinement. The goals against which projects are rated are ofnecessity broader than economic efficiency as measured by traditionalcost-benefit analysis. However, any ranking framework directed at project

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selection should also explicitly recognize the costs and benefits of theproject in an intertemporal framework. The time dimension is an importantfactor that the Government's framework does not explicitly recognize.

5.09 Composition. The sectoral composirton of the proposed 1985investment program does not differ in any significant way from previousyears. This is mainly because the program is made up largely by theongoing projects, with slightly less than 10 proposed new projects. Apartfrom a Global Manpower project with external assistance from theInter-American Development Bank, the proposed disbursements on almost allnew projects are less than GS2 million each. This is also because most ofthe proposed new projects have no identified external assistance.

5.10 Agriculture (including forestry and fishing) remains the -dinthrust of the proposed PSIP, accounting for about 36X of the proposedexpenditures for 1985. The main components are the two irrigation projects(to benefit mainly rice production) at Abary and Blackbush, both withproposed IDB assistance. The Abary water control system constitutes thesecond phase of the massive Mahaica-Mahaicony-Abary project which wasinitiated in 1984. The rehabilitation of the Black Bush project which wasconceived in 1979 is being executed in 1985 following a long period ofadministrative bottlenecks and project modifications. Completion of theTapakuma irrigation project with local financing is expected in 1985. Thetwo other major agricultural projects involve the continuation andcompletion of the Agricultural Sector Program and the Food Crop Productionand Marketing, both of which are supported by the IDB. In the forestrysector, a major attempt is proposed for revitalizing the Upper DemeraraForestry project with IDA, IDB ard EDF financing. The project is expectedto be completed in the next one and a half years.

5.11 Apart from the dominance of the agriculture sector, the othermajor proposed projects for implementation are under physicalinfrastructure. The execution of the Hydro-electric power project atEclipse is the prime objective of the Government with expenditureallocation of G$25 million for 1985. No firm external assistance has asyet been concluded, but the assistance of the Democratic People's Republicof Korea is envisaged. The project aims at providing energy for industrialand agricultural development in the project area. A large number oftransport infrastructure and communication projects are envisaged for1985. The most significant one is, however, the Essequibo Sea and RiverDefense project. Sea and river defense systems, like the water controlsystems, are extremely essential for minimizing the adverse effects onagriculture resulting from flooding since most part of the coastal andarable area in Guyana is below sea level.

5.12 A large amount of expenditure has been devoted in recent years tomiscellaneous administrative and rehabilitation-type projects associatedwith the Central Government. These projects are usually executed whollywith domestic financial resources. Together, they are projected to amountto G$57.3 million, or 8% of total investment, for 1985. While these minorrepair works and rehabilitation expenditures appear critical for the smooth

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functioning of the Central Government, rigid control are essential tocontain costs. Of the proposed investment program for the public corpora-tions, those by the Guyana Airways Corporation (GAC), Bidco/Guymine, GuyanaSugar Corporation (Guysuco) and the Guyana Electricity Corporation (GEC)merit review. The GAC proposes to purchase two new aircraft for itsexternal operations. The Bidco/Guymine rehabilitation project is largelycontingent on envisaged external support from the EEC/EDF and possibly theWorld Bank; the uncertainty of resource inflows may delay execution. BothGuysuco and GEC expect financial assistance from the IDB and the rehabili-tation programs proposed by the two corporations are on schedule. TheGuyana Fisheries Ltd. may also benefit from CIDA's assistance. As to theother corporations, uncertainties with respect to foreign exchange availa-bility may limit the size of their investments.

Implementation and Monitoring

5.13 Financial Implications. The implementation of the 1985 invest-ment progr3m amounting to G$748 million is contingent on the expectedinflow of project resources by external donors, given the tight public sec-tor fiscal situation. The Government expects an external inflow of aboutG$264.4 (US$63.7) million or about 35Z of the total 1985 public investmentprogram. Given the tight financial condition in Guyana it is unlikely thatdomestic financing of the balance of G$483.2 million (part of which isrequired in foreign exchange) will be available. As of 1983-84, the levelof actual public investment 's likely to be lower than projected. Giventhis likelihood, it is important to review during mid-year, progress on theimplementation of the investment program and to limit, if need be,disbursements to high priority programs on the basis of the criteriadiscussed earlier. The above concerns will require flexibility on the partof the donors regarding the use of committed funds as well as additionalfinancial support to cover shortages in both foreign and local financing.

5.14 Monitoring. Physical project implementation has been unsatisfac-tory in the past because of manpower constraints and a weak project monito-ring system. The latter problem is expected to persist in 1985 andbeyond. With technical assistance financed by the World Bank, a projectmonitoring system was established at the State Planning Secretariat in1981. Unfortunately, the execution of the program was below expectation,in part because of the high staff turnover and limited agency involvement.A revival of the monitoring system is urgently needed to involve theexecuting agencies in a more meaningful way, supplemented by a thoroughreview of ongoing projects to assess their expected impact on the recoveryprocess. A more structured and formalized monitoring system shouldmaintain a standard and efficient project-monitoring format. Actual targetand variance data should be regularly analyzed for key projects andprograms. Furthermore, coordination among the many external agencies willbe necessary if the execution of the PSIP is to be improved.

5.15 The administrative capacity of the line agencies responsible forimplementing major parts of the public investment program is crucial forits success. In areas such as power and irrigation, the proposed increasesin investment will undoubtedly stra4n this capacity. To keep the programs

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on schedule, the Government will have to pay close attention to the needsof technical and managerial staff and to the planning and administrativeprocedures of the line agencies. As with the proposals regarding medium-term planning discussed in Chapter II, medium-term investment planning atthe agency level is desirable. The eventual goal should be to have eachoperating agency define sectoral investment plans to be coordinated by theState Planning Secretariat.

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CHAPTER VI - EXTERNAL TRADE AND FINANCE

6.01 Since 1976, Guyana has had a history of balance of paymentsdifficulties which have worsened in recent years. Over the past threeyears, Guyana has suffered from a chronic shortage of foreign exchange thathas led to major policy adjustments including import restrictions anddevaluations of the currency. Given the negligible capital inflows since1982, the import capacity is determined principally by the levels of exportearnings. The root cause of the balance of payments problem is thus thedecline in export earnings resulting from poor domestic performance. IfGuyana is to escape the constraint on growth that has been imposed by thelack of foreign exchange, a substantially better performance in the growthof exports (and by implication, domestic production) will be needed in thefuture.

6.02 Exports must grow more rapidly than imports in order for Guyanato reduce its present large resource gap. A further reduction on thealready depressed levels of imports, however, is inadvisable. Whether thenecessary growth in imports can be achieved will depend on the country'sability to increase production for export, on the expansion of overseasmarkets, and on trade policies that will keep exports competitive. All theabove is also constrained by the dominant feature of Guyana's exportstructure which entails reliance on three main export commodities: bauxiteproducts, sugar and rice. Despite the official policy of diversifying theproductive base of the economy, the past over-reliance on a policy of'import replacement" and -self-sufficiency has not helped to diminish thecountry's reliance on the three main export commodities for foreignexchange. In recent years, capital inflows have also almost dried up:private capital has shied away because of uncertainties with respect toGovernment policies, commercial lending was not feasible due toaccumulation of large arrears and lack of creditworthiness while officialaid was reduced as a result of the lack of a speedy action on macroeconomicpolicy adjustment.

A. External Trade Policy and Issues

External Trade Indicators

6.03 An analysis of trends Ln the movements of foreign tradeindicators for the period since 1976 is more meaningful than the balance ofpayments movements in demonstrating the factors underlying Guyana'sexternal sector problems. Table 15 shows that both the exportIGDP andimport/GDP ratios have declined dramatically from about 75% in 1975 to lessthan 52% in the case of exports and 68% in the case of imports by 1984.The steep decline in export revenues resulted from poor performance fromthe two main sectors: sugar and bauxite, both of which output performancehas been disappointing since the mid-1970s. Unfortunately for Guyana, thedecline in the quantum of exports took place at a time of deterioratingterms of trade. As a result of the shrinkage in the import capacity, theeconomy, so dependent on imports, suffered chronic and lately acuteshortages of raw materials and spare parts. This in turn has affected theexport sector and local industry.

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Table 15: External Trade Indicators

Prel.1975 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

Export GNFS/GDP (Z) 74.9 69.1 65.7 54.8 46.4 51.9Sugar 34.8 20.5 19.2 18.2 14.3 13.2Bauxite 24.3 31.8 26.9 21.7 15.1 20.3Rice 7.1 5.7 6.9 4.2 4.5 4.7Other 8.7 11.1 12.7 10.7 12.5 13.7

Imports GNFS/GDP (X) 74.9 79.6 85.3 71.7 66.9 67.8Consumer Goods 10.9 8.6 10.0 7.5 5.2 3.2Intermediate 23.3 21.3 26.9 17.8 15.8 15.3Fuel & Lubricant 11.3 23.8 25.2 22.6 19.9 22.9Capital Goods 22.3 12.9 13.6 9.7 9.9 8.2Other 7.1 13.0 8.6 14.1 16.1 18.2

Terms of Trade Index(G$) a/ (1977=100) 125.5 93.4 78.3 67.6 b2.5 74.2

Purchasing Power ofExports (GS) b/ (1977=100) 157.8 98.4 75.5 50.2 40.2 47.0

Export price index divided by the import price index.D/ Export earnings deflated by import unit value index.

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 3.7.

6.04 As imports are significant inputs into domestic production forboth local consumption and exports, the effect of the austere import policyimposed on the economy lhas been severe. import volumes in 1984 were 50%below that of 1975 and about a third of that in 1970 and have fallencontinuously since 1976. Because of the emergence of a parallel market,the official recorded data on imports do not, of course, provide a completepicture of what is actually happening in the economy. As noted elsewhere,there is no doubt that external factors such as the world price and demandconditions contributed to the economic difficulties of Guyana, especiallysince 1982, but their impact could have been minimized if the domesticenvironment was relatively more favourable in terms of policies conduciveto output expansion.

Expanding the Capacity to Import

6.05 If Guyana is to sustain a real growth in imports sufficient topromote growth, exports will have to increase rapidly in the futurecompared to the negative average compound rate of 8% during the past 5years (see Chapter VII). The expansion of exports will depend on theimplementation of an aggressive recovery program in the bauxite and sugarsectors and the stimulation of exports in non-tradition commodities (bothmanufactures and agriculture). The bauxite sector should be expected togrow slowly despite the remarkable recovery in 1984, and increasing

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emphasis must be placed on marketing. Large investments in extractiveindustries are proposed to increase the value of mineral exports by thedevelopment of new mineral products (notably gold and diamonds). In theshort and medium-term, the performance of the sugar sector would becritical since it is the sole 'hard' currency earner as the bauxite sectorhas become a net foreign exdhange loser since 1983 and rice exports aremainly to the CARICOM market to offset Guyana's arrears to the CARICOMClearing Facility. Export levels attained (in volumes) during the early1970s are possible with concerted effort to improve productivity andyields.

6.06 It seems likely that substantially larger volumes of traditionalagricultural products, rice and wood products, will be exported during thenext ten years, although actual earnings could be affected somewhat byprice changes. With the completion of ongoing irrigation and watercontrol projects, the country's rice export capacity would be trippled inthe next decade. Similarly, ongoing forestry projects are expected to morethan double the country's potential in that area. For most sectors, themain uncertainty with regard to supply appears to be the availability ofadequate resources in terms of foreign exchange to support the recoveryprogram. On the other hand, the crisis over the past three years hasfavoured investments in production intended primarily for the domesticmarket (through the policy of self-sufficiency). The relativeattractiveness of investments in production for exports will therefore haveto be increased by changes in the structure of incentives for exports andimport- substituting industries. This will probahly require furtherchanges in the effective rates of foreign exchange and gradual tradeliberalization.

6.07 The other factor that will influence the capacity to import isthe behaviour of the external terms of trade. The instability of theinternational commodity market in recent years has been a forceful reminderof the extent to which import capacities can be affected by changes in theterms of trade. It also underscores the importance of having adequateforeign exchange reserves to minimize the disruptive effects of slumps inexport earnings and proper management of the resources during periods ofexport price booms. In the case of Guyana, the need for a program toreschedule its external payment obligations is urgent before it can beginthe painful process of rebuilding external reserves (see Chapter VII). Inthe meantime, the Government's efforts at expanding countertrade relations,aimed at market expansion and insulation against declining terms of tradeand weakening demand, cast doubts on its ability to rapidly build up itsexternal reserves in the conventional manner. The problem with counter-trade is that repurchases are ii- goods and services and in most cases thecommodity composition and quality are non-optimal. The Government iscognizant of this and the establishment of the Department of InternationalTrade Relations to monitor countertrade activities is aimed at ensuringoptimum benefit to the country. The Deputy Prime Minister for Planning hasbeen made responsible for this activity. Countertrade should, however, beviewed as a short to medium term solution to the external trade problem ofGuyana as it reinforces existing distortions by making claims on futureresources. An attempt to return to conventional trade relations should bepursued as quickly as possible.

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Issues in Trade Policy

6.08 Promotion of Non-Traditional Exports. As noted above, in theshort to medium term, expansion in exports in the traditional sectors(bauxite, sugar and rice) is the key to economic recovery in Guyana. Inthe long term, the extent to which Guyana can successfully expand exportsand improve its reserves will depend not only on the ability to increaseproduction in the non-traditional areas like gold and diamond, but also onthe expansion of overseas markets through promotional activities andmeasures to keep exports competitive. The bulk of Guyana's exports in thepast have been directed at the UK, CARICOM, the US, Canada and the EEC.The concentration of trade to these countries has resulted from thecomposition of export commodities: sugar to the UK and EEC, bauxite/alumina to predominantly Canada, US and EEC and rice to mainly the CARICOMcountries. Recent changes in policy to encourage foreign investment,especially in mineral exploration would increase the participation offoreign investment in the export drive. Through their contacts with theinternational market, these foreign investors can greatly assist in thediversification of trade sources and the exploration of new markets.

6.09 Expansion and diversification of non-traditional exports areconstrained by a number of factors including (a) the need for a policyframework more conducive to export development; (b) the lack of foreignexchange n-eded by the export oriented development because of the importdepeadent nature of existing industrial structure; and (c) the non-existence of specific institutional infrastructure to provide guidance,technical expertise and service to the exporting sector. On the firstissue, the Government is in the process of developing the relevant policyframework for promoting export development. In 19B3, as part of thestructural adjustment program, it established the Guyana Export PromotionCouncil (GEPC) to provide the type of developmental and promutional supportrequired by the producer and exporters so as to enable them to penetratemore effectively into international markets in non-traditional exports.The GEPCs activities have, however, been constrained by institutionalweakness (which it is currently remedying with technical assistance fromthe UNDP) and the general foreign exchange shortage noted above. The issueof the non-existence of specific institutional infrastructure to provideguidance is also being addressed by the UNDP technical assistance. TheUNDP program comprises institutional building, the development of exporttrade information, market/product identification (which includes new marketopportunities abroad) and the development of a systemetic and comprehensiveexport incentives system.

6.10 Administrative Constraints. Export promotion in Guyana is alsoconstrained in the short-term by the need for overall strengthening andstreamlining of import operations including simplification of the importlicensing scheme and consumption tax regime. As part of the IBRD/IDAsupported structural adjustment program, the import licensing system wassimplified for the EDF users but the more general simplification did nottake place, in part because of the sharp deterioration of the foreignexchange situation. Similarly, a number of programs including the

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remission of consumption taxes on imported inputs and foreign exchangeretention for selected non-traditional exporters have been implemented withmixed results. As regards the remission scheme it appears that it has anumber of shortcomings typical of such rebate systems, i.e. the manufac-turer needs the approval of various government entities and the scope ofadministrative discretion is considerable. Through the technicalassistance of the UNDP, the Government is in the process of strengtheningthe technical capability of the Ministry of Trade in the rationalization ofits import regulating and licensing procedures and the establishment of animport management system.

B. Management of External Debt

International Reserves and External Debt

6.11 The cumulative deficit in the current account of the balance ofpayments of some US$975 million during 1976-84 has caused a completedepletion of net international reserves. The net international reserves ofGuyana are negative.

Table 16: Various Indicators of External Reserve Position

(USS million)

DecemberCategory 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

International reserves (net) -206.5 -267.4 -362.2 -552.4 -663.4Net reserves of the Central Bank -202.1 -258.4 -347.0 -539.4 -655.4Net reserves of Commercial Banks -4.4 -9.0 -15.2 -13.0 -8.0

Gross Foreign Assets of Central Bank 12.7 6.9 10.1 6.2 5.7Weeks of Imports covered by theGross Foreign assets of the 1.7 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.3Central Bank

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 6.4.

6.12 The balance of payments deficit has been financed largely by arapid increase in public debt. During 1975-82, disbursed and outstandingpublic medium and long term (M & LT) debt more than doubled from a level ofless than US$300 million or about 60% GNP, at the end of 1975 to US$660million, or about 160% of GNP at the end of 1982. Over the same period,the ratio of disbursed public M & LT debt to exports of goods and NFStripled from 78. in 1975 to 258% in 1982 while the public debt serviceratio increased from less than 5% in 1975 to over 20% in 1981. In 1982-83,the ratio of scheduled debt service to actual exports was on average about35%, but the actual debt service ratio fell to about 15% on average asGuyana was unable to service all its debt (see para. 6.15).

6.13 Guyana obtained relatively favourable terms on its new debtsduring the 1970-84 period reflecting the relative importance of

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non-commercial type borrowin,g, which accounted for three quarters of allnew commitments during 1976-832 (of which more than half from multilateralinstitutions). The average maturity of new debts committed during thisperiod was 20 years (including about 5 years of grace) at the averageinterest rate of 5.6% in spite of the relatively hard terms on commercialtype debts particularly with regard to amortization periods (Table 17).The share of commercial-type debt in total outstanding public debt, whichhad reached 50% by the end of 1976 in fact declined subsequently. Despitethe relatively favourable debt structure (only about one-third of the debtfalls due during the next 5 years), the poor export performance as notedabove has created considerable debt servicing problems.

Table 17: Average Terms of New Commitments 1970-84 a/

Non-Commercial Commercial b/ Total

Interest Rate (X) 10.9 3.7 5.6Maturity (Years) 6.0 26.7 20.3Grace Period (Years) 1.7 6.5 5.3Grant Element (%) -3.2 46.9 32.2

a/ Weighted Average.b/ Bilateral and Multilateral Loans and Official Export Credit.

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 4.3.

6.14 Very few new medium- and long-term loans were extended to Guyanaduring 1982-84 (new commitments fell from US$200 million in 1981 to lessthan US$44 million in 1984). Gross disbursements of public and publiclyguaranteed capital dropped by about 84% to US$26 million in 1984,reflecting a decline in gross disbursements related both to the absence ofnew commitments and

Table 18: External Payments Arrears

(US$ million)

Dec. 311980 1981 1982 1983 1984

Total Arrears 45.4 136.4 249.5 450.6 625.4Commercial & othercurrent payments 29.3 45.7 96.3 132.7 154.0

Bank of Guyana arrears 16.1 80.7 124.0 221.4 332.5of which Bilateral deposits 3.4 29.6 34.2 48.5 64.2

CARICOM Clearing Facility 12.7 51.1 85.8 106.6 109.7Trinidad & Tobago - - - 54.5 146.9IMF - - 4.0 11.8 11.7

Public Sector Debt - 10.0 29.2 96.5 138.9

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 6.5.

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the slowdown in the execution of the externally supported public sectorinvestment program. The chronic foreign exchange shortage also led to arapid increase in debt arrears during 1982-84 (Table 18).

Government Response

6.15 The Government's solution to the debt/arrears problem has beenvaried and specific to individual circumstances. Since 1982, principal andinterest payments due to Alcan under the nationalization debt have beenpaid in kind with shipments of bauxite. Similarly, with regard to thecommercial banks, arrangements have been put in place for deferral(currently until July 1985) of the principal payments due. In addition,agreement was reached with a number of non-OECD bilateral creditors for therescheduling on a limited basis of bilateral debts. The OECD bilateralcreditors, of which the US, UK and Canada are the main ones, which wereapproached by the Government to reschedule debts, indicated a requirementfor a meeting of the Paris Club which can only take place after agreementon a new IMF program. Such a program has not been possible because ofGuyana's overdue payments to the IMF. Guyana is, however, servicing debtto some multilateral agencies, but the projected debt service burden, inthe absence of a comprehensive rescheduling, is unbearable and may becounterproductive.

6.16 For 1985, the Government proposes to pursue the approachesadopted in the recent past to deal with the external debt:

(a) to reschedule those bilateral debts not requiring Paris Clubmeetings, commercial and nationalization debts on favourable terms that mayinvolve (i) extension of maturity, (ii) modification of original interestrates, and (iii) when possible, repayment of the principal by goods; and

(b) with particular but not exclusive reference to CARICOM debt, toestablish joint venture arrangements whereby a production entity located inGuyana is linked to a finance and marketing entity located in the territoryto which Guyana is indebted. The latter entity would provide inputs forthe operation of the production entity in Guyana which in turn woulddeliver all its output to the external entity. The value of exports, netof the value of the imported inputs provided would go toward the reductionof Guyana's indebtedness to the creditor.

6.17 Both approaches are innovative given Guyana's failure to obtainadditional financing from both commercial and official creditors to coverthe high level of debt service payments. Furthermore, given the alreadylow levels of imports, it is not prudent to reduce further foreign exchangeoutlays on non-debt related items such as essential consumer goods bycutting domestic expenditures and tightening controls on imports. In themedium term, however, the Government should continue to pursue its effortsto conclude a program with the IMF, which may pave the way for a majorrescheduling of the OECD bilateral creditors and the restoration of normallevels of bilateral inflows. A program with the IMF would in addition toshort-term balance of payments resources establish a macroeconomicframework for outgrowing the debt overhang, inducing domestic savings andincreasing incentive to export.

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CHAPTER VII - DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS

A. Background

7.01 The focus of thip report has been the development of a frameworkfor the economic recovery of Guyana. Many of the policies recommended hereare directed at restructuring the economy to permit a relatively modestrate of growth. Given the severity of the crisis facing Guyana and themagnitude of its disequilibrium, it may not be possible to sustain growthwithout substantial external assistance. Since considerable uncertaintysurrounds the availability of external resources to support recovery,analysis of the medium- and long-term prospects made to test thefeasibility and consistency of the development policies reviewed in theprevious chapters may not be relevant. Instead, the focus of this overviewof development prospects is on the major macroeconomic targets to which theGovernment's efforts over the decade should be directed. This exerciseconstitutes a quantitative framework to support the policy discussions ofthe previous chapters.

7.02 In developing quantitative targets, considerable emphasis isplaced on the recommended sequencing of the recovery program as outlined inChapter II. The two phases--liberalization and rehabilitation--areextremely important in the selection of targets in view of theuncertainty surrounding external financing and the magnitude of Guyana'sexternal payment obligations. Further, good short-term economic management(the key ingredient of the liberalization phase) is a springboard for arecovery strategy designed to address the rehabilitation issues, which areessentially medium- to long-term in nature. The targets proposedundoubtedly represent the maximum that could be achieved, given existingcapacity constraints, and may be difficult to attain. Nevertheless, theyprovide the reference points for restructuring the economy to sustain therecovery initiated in 1984.

7.03 The selected indicators outlined in Table 19 represent thepossible quantitative dimensions of the development strategy discussed inthe previous chapters, if the external resources identified in para. 7.13are made available to Guyana. The targets represent a distinct departurefrom the performance indicators of the past decade and appear modest. Theyrepresent the expectation to restore production levels to those attainedduring the early 1970s. Thus, by 1990, the real level of GDP at factorcosts should exceed that attained in 1975 while export levels in real termsby 1995 should be restored to that of 1976. If these levels are notattained, Guyana will not be able to meet its external obligations and itsdevelopment prospects will be bleak. (Further details on the targets arefound in Appendix tables 9.1 - 9.5).

B. Sectoral Targets

Domestic Sector

7.04 Output. The medium- and long-term prospects for the economydepend on the restoration of bauxite and sugar output to their pre-1975levels. In that context, the Government's program should aim at a growth

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Table 19: Selected Macroeconomic Targets

Average1983 1984 1985 1986-1990 1991-1995

Z GDP mp (real)Investment 24.9 18.3 27.8 27.0 28.8

Public 20.4 13.5 22.7 21.0 21.4Private 4.5 4.8 5.1 6.0 7.4

Consumption 75.4 83.7 74.1 73.8 70.6Public 25.6 21.7 20.7 20.4 17.9Private 49.8 62.0 53.4 53.4 52.7

Domestic Savings 24.6 16.3 25.9 26.2 29.4

Z GDP mp (Nominal)Central Govt Current Rev. 38.9 35.3 29.9 29.9 29.9Central Govt Current Exp. 61.6 68.2 64.1 53.8 41.9Central Govt Current Acct. -22.7 -32.9 -34.2 -23.9 -12.0Public Sector Current Acct. -26.7 -38.6 -35.0 -18.0 -4.1Public Sector Overall -51.9 -60.2 -77.8 -56.5 -38.6

% GDP mp (Nominal)Exports GNS 46.4 51.9 50.1 47.5 42.0Imports GNS 66.9 67.7 65.3 61.0 56.5Resource Balance -20.5 -15.9 -15.2 -13.5 -14.5BOP Current Acct. -26.4 -19.4 -20.2 -19.9 -21.3Overall Balance -38.9 -32.1 -26.3 -14.1 -2.3

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 9.5.

rate of GDP (at factor cost) averaging 4% in the medium term (1985-88) and5.5% thereafter up to 1995. To attain those levels, recovery in thebauxite and sugar sectors should be the Government's priority in themedium-term. The 1984 production levels of dried metal grade and calcinedbauxite were 823,000 long tons and 517,000 long tons respectively. Sinceexisting capacities without rehabilitation are estimated at about 1.3million and 700,000 long tons for dried metal grade and calcined bauxite(see para. 3.04) and about 1.8 million and 1.2 million long tons,respectively with rehabilitation, it is assumed that by 1995 the productionof both commodities should have attained about 80% of their existingcapacity. That is, (without major rehabilitation--except for the adequateprovision of spare parts) production levels in bauxite should be restoredto at least their 1976 levels. With rehabilitation, the pre-1975 levelscould be exceeded.

7.05 Since 1974, sugar output declined consistently from 340,000 longtons to only 238,000 long tons in 1984. With adequate rehabilitation asenvisaged by the Government's program, production could be restored toabout 350,000 long tons by 1995. At that level, it is assumed that some200,000 long tons will go to meet the quota requirements of the EEC and the

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US, some 50,000 long tons will be available for local consumption and theremainder will go to the free market.

7.06 Output of the rice and other agriculture products exhibits thehighest potential for growth. With the expected completion of on-goinginvestment projects in the next few years, Guyana's physical capacity forrice production should expand sharply. The projected targets assume thatwith the reorganization of the rice industry currently underway, productionshould increase from the 1984 level of 181,000 long tons to about 2b0,000long tons by 1995 or an average annual growth rate of about 3.5% over theperiod. Agricultural diversification programs, if properly implemented,should complement efforts in the sugar and rice sectors and raise overallagricultural output. The target for 1995 should be to exceed the 1978 peaklevel of G$229 million (in real terms) by over 15%.

7.07 As to objectives in the other productive sectors, manufacturing,construction, government and services they should complement the mainsectors. The target for manufacturing is to grow at about the same rate asagriculture, since it involves mainly agriculture-based processing.Construction activities couid be maintained at about 6% of GDP at realfactor cost. In view of policy efforts to reduce the public sector deficitthrough less expenditures, the objective should be to progressively reducegovernment services from 22% of GDP in 1984 to about 20% of GDP by 1995.This reduction implies an average growth rate of about 3.5% p.a., about1-1.5% less than the target growth of GDP at factor cost.

7.08 Aggregate Expenditures. The target levels for investment (about27% of GDP during 1986-90 and 28.8Z during 1991-95) are slightly lowrelative to the historic levels of about 30% during 197b-80. Given thatthe output of the productive sectors fell by more than 20% over the pastdecade, there should be considerable scope for increases in the utilizationof existing capital stock through institutional and policy adjustments, andinvestment should focus on rehabilitation and replacement of capital stockand completion of on-going projects, particularly in the short to mediumterm. The implicit incremental output/capital ratio should rise from 12%in 1985 to 19% in 1990 and decline thereafter to 17% by 1995, a reflectionof the above investment levels. Aggregate consumption, on the other hand,should be reduced from about 75% of GDP in 1983 to 70% by 1995 if thetargets for the mobilization of domestic savings are to be attained. Theprincipal objective is to reduce public consumption from the present levelsof about 22% of GDP to about 18% by 1995.

7.09 Public Finances. The objective of the Government's recoveryprogram should be to improve public sector finances through both areduction in Central Government expenditures and a strengthening of thefinances of the non-financial public enterprises (notably Guymine andGuysuco). As for the first, the policy objective should be to reduceCentral Government's current account deficit, which is presently 33% ofGDP, to about 24% during 1986-90 and to 12% during 1991-95. This targetcan be attained mainly through expenditure reduction programs, as revenue/GDP levels above 35% may be counterproductive in encouraging increasedproductivity by the private sector given the existing constraints on

- 55 -

Consumption. Central Government current expenditures should be reducedfrom the existing 68% of GDP in 1984 to about 42Z during 1991-95 through(a) the rescheduling of the domestic debt as proposed in the Government's1985 budget, and (b) a reduction in non-wage expenditures by improved costmonitoring, and in wage expenditures through moderation in employment andin the level of wage changes.

7.10 The Government's prime efforts should be directed in the medium-term to improving the finances of the non-financial public enterprises.The policy initiatives discussed in Chapter IV, if implemented properly andpromptly should help improve the finances of the corporations. Withrespect to Guymine, the objective should be a financial restructuring,along with the proposed management reforms and technical rehabilitation,aimed at returning the industry to break-even by 1988. Guysuco should aimat restoring its operating surplus by 1986 assuming the projected uutputand export levels discussed in para. 7.05 are attained. The restructuringof the GRB should as with the Guystac group, improve its operatingbalance. Thus, in general the Government's objective should be to restorethe finances of the public corporations to surplus positions in the short-term. The public sector current account balance should be reduced from adeficit of 39% of GDP in 1984 to minus 18Z of GDP during 1986-90 and toabout minus 4% of GDP during 1991-95. The objective should be to reducethe overall public sector deficit from the 60Z of GDP in 1984 to about 31%in 1995.

External Sector

7.11 Exports/Imports. Both exports and imports declined rapidlyduring 1981-84, a reflection of the economic decline of the period. If theproduction targets outlined in paras. 7.04-7.07 are attained, exportsshould reach their pre-1977 levels by 1995. This target implies a compoundgrowth rate of about 5% p.a. in real terms during 1985-95. The growth rateof exports is anticipated to be the same as that of GDP. Importprojections, on the other hand, may assume a growth rate of about 4% overthe decade, which is lower than that for exports because of the existenceof a considerable room from improving capacity utilization. The objectiveshould be to reduce the import/GD? ratio from 68% to 57% by 1995. Inattaining the import targets, the assumption 1s made that half of Guyana'sfuel imports are used in the bauxite sector and that up to 1990, the volumeof fuel imports will reflect the level of activity in that sector. Thesubstitution of hydropower for about 20% of the fuel needs should be thetarget for 1990 and beyond.

7.12 Balance of Payments. On the basis of no anticipated improvementsin the resource balance during the decade, the recovery program should aimat no further deterioration in the balance of payments. By implication,the objective is to maintain a ratio of interest payments to Exports ofGoods and NFS of 10% during 1985-87 and 15Z thereafter. The ratio of thebalance of payments deficit to GDP (at current market prices) should thusaverage 20% during 1986-90 and 21% during 1991-95. These are reasonabletargets only if appropriate rescheduling of existing payment obligationstake place in the short term and if substantial resource inflows occur tosupport the Government's program.

- 56 -

C. Inflows of External Capital

Resource Requirements and Sources

7.13 If the projections of the current account receipts and paymentsoutlined in the preceding sections are realized, the cumulative deficit onthe balance of payments will be about US$851 million during )85-90 andabout USS1.7 billion in the subsequent five year-period. There is a needto make provisions for increases in external reserves--prudent managementof the balance of payments suggests that they be kept at the equivalent ofat least one month of imports-and that existing external payment arrearsbe eliminated, either through gradual repayment or conversion into medium-and long-term loans. It is assumed that there will be no improvement inGuyana's external reserve position during 1985-90. Similarly, it isassumed there will be neither a build-up nor reduction of external arrearsduring 1985-90 and that the external arrears at 1984 level will beconverted into a 15 year loan, with repayments beginning in 1991. Thismeans that besides reducing external arrears, the reserves should increaseby about US$373 million during 1991-95. Thus, Guyana will require a netinflow (excluding the assumed capital available-Table 20) of foreignexchange of about USS736 million between 1985-95 which will have to be metfrom medium- and lcng-term loans, and direct private investment. These

Table 20: External Capital RequiremenLs

(USS million)

1985 1985-1990 1991-95

I Requirements 158.5 1132.2 2458.ZCurrent Account Deficit a/ 99.2 851.2 1704.2Amortization b/ 59.3 281.0 173.0Arrears Repayment - - 208.5Increase in Reserves - 372.5

II Assumed Capital Available 89.9 395.bM1 & LT Loans (Committed) 74.9 145.8 -Direct investments d/ 15.0 250.0Short-term Trade Finance - -

III Additional Financing Required 68.6 736.4 2458.2

a/ Includes for 1985, interest payments of US$24.3 million; for 1985-1990,interest payments of US$111.8 million and for 1990-95, interestpayments of US$56.5 million for M & LT debt. Also included are someinterest payments for servicing arrears at current levels.

b/ Scheduled amortization on outstanding debt (including undisbursed);does not assume rescheduling of existing debt (Table 4.2).

c/ Assumes no further build-up of arrears beyond 1984 levels. Arrears tobe reduced over 15 years beginning 1991.

dl Includes bilateral arrangements, especially those identified in recentcontracts with non-Western countries.

- 57 -

figures imply a resource gap of about US$123 million p.a. during 1985-90.By constraining interest payments to 10% of Exports GNFS during 1985-87 and15% thereafter, the additional resource inflows should be highly conces-sionary at close to zero interest rate during 1985-90; and at no more than8X interest during 1991-95.

7.14. The identified sources of financing indicate a net inflow ofdirect investment (mainly in the mining sector as well as bilateralarrangements with non-Western donor countries) that will increase in themedium term and could provide a total of US$250 million during 1985-90.Short-term financing will probably not be available in the medium termuntil an IMF program is in place. In the long term, however, it willprobably increase in line with the volume of trade to be financed, providedarrears reduction and other rescheduling negotiations are successful. Thebalance of the capital requirement will have to come from inflows ofmedium- and long-term loans, the committed resources of which would bephased out by 1990. The bulk of new resources would have to be obtainedfrom official concessional sources, mainly members of the ConsultativeGroup.

Foreign Aid

7.15 For potential donors the implications of the above analysis arethreefold. First, Guyana needs large irnflows of external capital tosustain the recovery and rehabilitation of the economy. Second, a shifthas to take place from project to program assistance, including recurrentfinancing and balance of payments support. Third, the donors shouldcoordinate their assistance and channel it largely for rehabilitation ofexisting capital stock and completion of the ongoing investment program(including those not necessarily originally supported by them). Guyana hasin place a large capital stock that is chronically under-utilized. Smallinvestments in rehabilitation can have very high rates of return, sincethey bring existing capital back into production. While substantialconcessional resources will be required during the 1985-95 period, thesupply response of the export sectors should generate additional resourcesand reduce the needed external resources in the long term.

7.16 Multilateral and bilateral aid has been a major component ineconomic development in Guyana since the 1960s and has provided financingof both investments and institutional development. Most of the foreignassistance during the 197Us came from bilateral sources, primarily in theform of grants and similar assistance. In the latter part of the 1970s andearly 1980s, a significant portion came from multilateral sources. Since1975, public capital provided about 79X of the financing of the balance ofpayments deficit. Since 1952, following the poor performance of theeconomy, most of the external donors have maue substantial new assistancecontingent on an IMF program. Thus, there have been no major newcommitments to Guyana, except from the Inter-American Development Bank.

- 58 -

7.17 The Government, over the past two years, has been in the processof introducing major policy reforms in response to the crisis to improveeconomic performance in Guyana. In order to elicit the support of externaldonors, the Government should strengthen its program along the linesdiscussed in the previous chapters. In particular, as noted in Chapter II,the main tasks during the liberalization phase (during the next 2-3 years)should include:

(a) Reducing the size of the public sector deficit throughexpenditure controls at the Central Government level and improvedperformance of the leading public corporations. The target should be toreduce the Central Government current expenditures from 68% of GDP in 1984to about 57Z in 1987 through rescheduling of domestic debt and limitingexpenditures on wages and salaries by rationalizing labor resources. Thefinances of the Corporations could be improved through the elimination ofprice distortions and improvements in the management of the enterprises.

(b) Improving Guyana's currency adjustment system, with the objectiveof enhancing the profitability of domestic export industries and arrestirgthe rapidly expanding parallel market. The Government may adjust itscurrency with respect to the SDR in which case it will allow the interplayof market forces in determining its value.

(c) Reducing price distortions by limiting the number of commoditiessubject to official price controls in the medium term to only those thatare highly essential in nature with low elasticities of demand. In thelong term, the objective should be the total elimination of price controls.

'd) Promoting exports, especially through the removal of obstacles toprivate initiatives and the provision of direct assistance to exporters ofnon-traditional commodities. The review of the investment code with theobjective of eliminating the uncertainty with respect to the Government'sintentions relating to the private sector (both domestic and external)should be urgently conducted. Direct assistance for exporters ofnon-traditional commodities should include the earmarking of foreignexchange, as soon as practicable, to restore the Export Development Fund(established under the Structural Adjustment program) to normal levels ofoperations.

7.18 The speed and extent of the policy adjustments are, however,constrained by resource unavailability, especially of foreign exchange.The Government's efforts are part of a two-pronged approach dealingsimultaneously with the supply-side and the demand management problems. Inour judgement this approach is the only realistic one. Past attempts tofocus separately on demand management have been less than successful. Ifour judgement is correct, then a strong case exists for external donors totailor the volume and timing Df their support accordingly, rather than toconsider the two sides of the equation separately and sequentially.

- 59 -

A NOTE ON ANNEXES I AND II

Annexes I and II contain a list of ongoing technical assistanceprograms and technical assistance requirements for 1985. The list wascompiled with the assistance of the UNDP Resident Mission in Guyana.Estimated costs are to be regarded as indicative.

ABBREVIATIONS

- UrknownCIDA - Canadian International Development AgencyDTCD - Department of Technical Cooperation for Development (UN)EEC - European Economic CommunityFAO - Food and Agricultural Organization (UN)GTSL - Guyana Transport Service LimitedGUYSTAC - Guyana State CorporationLAST - Institute of Applied Science and TechnologyIDB - Inter-American Development BankIFAD - International Fund for Agricultural DevelopmentIICA - Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on AgricultureILO - International Labor OrganizationITC - International Trade CentreITU - International Telecommunication UnionLIDCO - Livestock Development Corporation (Guyana)ODA - Overseas Development Assistance of the United Kingdom (UK)OPE - Office of Project Execution (UNDP)PAHO - Pan American Health OrganizationTA - Technical AssistanceUN - United NationsUNCTAD - United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUNDP - United Nations Development ProgramUNEP - United Nations Environment ProgramUNESCO - United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural OrganizationUNICEF - United Nations Children's FundUNIDO - United Nations Industrial Development OrganizationUSAID - United States Agency for International DevelopmentWFP - World Food ProgramWHO - World Health OrganizationWMO - World Meteorological Organization

- 60 -

ANNE I

Page 1 of 5

GUYANA - ONGOING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRANSE

Sector *ad Source of Amnunt

ProjectVActivity Asalstance (Millon U8#) Duration Nature of Assistance

I, PROJECT-RELATED

AGRICULTURE

Rice NodernIzation USAID 1.250 1975-85 To Increuss emil rice farmers Income

cphn*e 11) through Increased yield, reduced cost of

production and lmprovemnt of the rice

grading systeom

East Bank Berblce EEC 0.750 1984-85 To access needs for supplementary

Group Study drinage and/or Irrigation works. In

order to promote the agricultural

development In the area.

Institutlonal Strengthening/ IDB 1.350 1981-85 Institutional strengthbnIng of Guyana

FlP bries Flshbrleu Ltd.. and provision of

assistance for financing, fleet

operation and maintenance.

Institutional Strengtheningf lD8 1.050 1984- Parallel to Loan for Abary Project, to

Irrigation strengthen Institutlonal capscity of

Abary Development Authority.

Feasibility Study/Dairy 1DB 0.370 1984 Feaslblilty study to determine optimum

Sector Invest nts for long-ter development of

the dairy sector.

INDUSTRY

FeasibilIty Study/ Energy [OB ... 1980-85 Study for gpnerating electricity from

woodwaste; lmpliamntd through

consulting firm.

11. OTHERS

GENERAL DEVELOPMENT ISSUES

POLICY AND PLANNING

lnat2tutionni Strengthening/ IDB lZ25 1980-85 Institetlonsi strengthening through

Plannlng training and consultency of personnel of

the State Planning Secretariat and

Guyana Managenmnt Institute.

Institutlonal Support/ UNDP 1.185 1903-86 Strengtbening of administrative.

Dopart_ent of International managerial and technical capability wIth

Economic & Technical natlonal professlonmis. mIssions,

Cooperation training, and equIpm_nt. Executed by

Government.

- 61 -

AMNEX I

Page 2 of 5

GUYANA - ONGOING TECHNICAL ASSISTAMCE PROORAMME

Sector and Source of Amount

Project/ActIvIty Assistance .(Millon US#) Duratlon Nature of Assistance

Debt Restructuring and IDIP 0.315 1982-85 To assist In restructuring all external

Boesurce Mobilization debts, In contact with creditors and to

mkex recom_andatlons on dsbt reacbhed-

llng and credit re-activation.

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Raeserch L DevelopmentU UNDP 1.370 1982-66 To develop and strengthen Indigenous

Institute of Applied Science research and fealbillty assesament

and Technology capability oriented to local Industrial

applicatlon. Executed by Government and

UNIDO.

Support for expatrlate UNOP 0.164 1943-86 Program.e mlas to obtain the services of

natlonals TOIKTEN) national consultants abroad for

short-term asslgnments In Guyana.

Executed by UNDP/OPE.

AGRICULTURE

Prevention and Control of IICA 0.10U 1980 Improving animel health Information

LIveatock pests and dlseases system and promotlon of activities to

prevent, control and eradicate anlml

dl"se sa.

Dairy Production Systems IICA 0.091 198U-88 Improving dalry production systems for

ml I farmers of the Crabwood Creed and

East Berbice areas.

Smell Farmr DOevelopment IICA 0.058 1984-B6 Oevelopment of appropriate technology,

demonstration of farming methods and

other training.

Strengthening of the UHOP 0.650 1980-S5 To establish a technically equipped

Veterinary Lzi'oratory veterinary diagnostic laboratory, to

Services train veterinary laboratory technlclans

and to determane the Incidence of m jor

animal diseases.

Forestry Development CIDA 0.980 1977-85 Assistance In forest management and

Inventory control.

Livestock Development/LIDCO r)A ... Yearly Provision of veterlnarlen, training of

personnel and direct Involvement In the

management of LIDCO.

Technical Cooperation ODA ... Yearly Veterlnarlan to assist LIOCO menagesont

Aalni Health and train personnel.

- 62 -

ANEX I

Page 3 of 5

GUYANA - ONOING5 TECNtICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAI4E

Sector and Source of Mount

Project/Actllty Assistance (Mililion USS) Duratlon Nature of Aseistance

Head of Micslon gift Scheme ODA ... Yearly Prowlvlon of goods within the specific

guldel Ine which IRclude tools,

agricultural lplemsnts, booka, tape

recorders, and vehicle spare parts.

Animal Production CHINA ... 1984-8S FeasiblI1ty study and trial rearing of

ducks from C1in.

INDUSTRY

Blogas Technical Assistance CHINA 194- To study the possibility of application

of Chins" bloges technology In Guyana.

iron Foundry IDB 0.453 1984- Advlory services and training of

personnel on mangrial and technical

aspects of the Foundry Industry.

institutional Strongtheningf t08 0.780 1984- Five experts In apocfic tachnicai areasDmerars Woods Ltd. of aw1ll mnDagemnt to provide on the

job training to OWL personnel.

Industrial Training UNIDO ... Continuing Training In the fleld of Industrial

production.

Technlcul Asslstance/ UNIDO 0.019 1984-8F To determine present sttet of

Furniture Industry nmufacturing facilities. Identify their

technical needs and provide

recommendations for the Improvemnt of

the firma visited and woke long-term

recon.endations for the sector na a

whole.

Solar Timber Drying U1100 0.028 1985- To determlne the ecnomic and technical

parameters of tlmbr drying In Guyana,

using the gruobneeno tape solar kiln.

GurSUCo Central Repair UNIDO1 0.024 1985 To provide technical assistance In

Worksbop repair and maIntennce tecbniquoe. aswsil as training.

HEALTH

Weaning Food Development USAID 0.595 1978-a5 To establish the capacity and test the

feasibility of the production, marketing

and distribution of a low-cost nutritlon

weaning food (Cerec).

- 63 -APNZEX I

Page 4 of 5

CUYANA - ONGOING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME

Sector and Source of Amount

Project/Activity Assistance (Nlillon US) Duratlon_ Nature of Aaslstance

Rural Health Syste USAID 1.137 1978-8S luprovement and expaneion of prli_ry

health services.

HMlaria Eradication WHO/PAHO 0.13J 1982-86 Conultancy of on entomologlet -

short-term, upplilos nd _mterinl to

meslst governwnt mulatia prograe.

Dentel Health WHO/PAHO 0.070 1982-J5 short-term coneultancy - dental

specialist, micro-projectIng for the

development of community dental bealth

services.

Enviromental Health WHO/PANO 0.149 19863S institutlonal strengtbhning of the water

and sanitatien sector.

Humn Resource Developfent WHO/PAHO 0.255 1983-65 Institutional strengthening and staff

development of the Health Menpwe r Unit

of the Ninistry of Health and the

Faculty of Health aervices of the

UnlversIty of Guyana.

Prlnmry Health Care WHO/PAHO 0.92 1984-65 Support In the lmpiemntatlon of prinury

health care through _npower training,

reorganization of health services and

planning.

AssIstance to a Feeding WFP 2.830 1983-88 Daily dlstrlbutlen of food to nursery

Progri_ in Nursery Scboels children of ages 3.75 to 5.75 years old.

Water end basic servlces In tiNICEF 0.114 1983-85 To provide potable water for rural

rural Guysn communities In the Essequlbe River

district. ca part of the procese of

upgrading general heaith coiditloes.

TRANSPORT AND COMSICATION

Air Traffic Control CIDA 0.076 1984-65 Training of aIr traffic controilers.

EDUCATION

Scholarships EEC 0.8 1981-45 Financing of scholarships for Guymecse

students In the UK.

Inter-University Exchanges/ OOA . Yearly later-university exchbagea of UK staff

Unliersity of Guyamn for *bort-tarm traInlag coursos,

provision of lecturers and croue-

fertilizatlon In *cadmIes.

- 64 -ANNEX I

Page 5 of 5

GUYANA - ONGOING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME

Sector and Source of Amount

ProjectUActlvlty Assistance (million USS) Duration Nature of Aslsstance

Books Presentation OOA Yearly Preosentation of books to school

libreries, national llbrarya university

and other Institutlons.

Scholarship and Award Schem OWA ... Yearly Provislon of scholarships and aupport

finance for award winnera In academic

achlvenent.

Technical Training Awards MDA ... Yearly Provisioa of training on needs bails, In

the UK or third countries In a variety

of skills, uually for periods of 3

months to 3 years.

Diploentic Training Schom ODA 0.014 1984- Provision of comprehensive tralaing

course at Queen Elizabeth House, Oxford

University for promlsing young

diplomnts.

Niscellaneous Assistance UNESCO ... Continuing (a) Education: The provision of t ehaleal

assistance consultancies In tsaching and

reaearch techniques. The provision of

educational equlpment Cprojectors,

books, tape recorders, etc.) as weil us

the facility for the purchasing of

educational equipment.

tb) Science and technology: The provision of

science and technology equlpment,

followahip trslning and consultancles.

- 65 -ANNEXI II

Pe I of 5

GUYANA - PROPOSED TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE LIST. 1s9s

Seotor end Source of Estimated Cost

Project/Activity Assistance (Million US) Nature of Assistance Status

1. Project Related

NATURAL RESOURCES

Mineral Resourcee UNDP 0.050 Proposal for preparation of progrnaa to Under review.

Investment Promotlon promote investent In mineral resources.

(To be executed by UIVDTCO.)

Mineral Processing Laboratory UNDP and 00550 Research and Development support to the Under review.

Other Guyana Geology a Nines Comisslon. (To Preparetory

Sources be executed by UN/DTCO.) activities March

1985.

TRAMSPORT & COMUNICATION

Feasibility Study/Deep lOB 0.60 Identifying from various options moat Under dicuassion

Vater Port feasible deep water development, for 3rd qurter

19S.

Diagnostic Study/Guyana UNOP 0.044 Fielding of 3 short-term consultants fon Approved

Telecomm.nicatlon Corporation to) training of lumen resources needs, Implementation

(b) management operations, and Cc) out- February 1985.

side plant/switching equipment. (Executed

by ITU.)

improvemnt of Guyana Ferrles EEC 0.20 Study covering exlsting services of three Approved to

ferries (Georgetown, Eassquibo and start March

Berbice) to cover ahort-term repalrs and 1965.

to long-term rehabilitatlon progrms.

AGRICULTURE FORESTRY AND

FISHERIES

Forestry Equipmnt CIOA 0.50 TA component for rehabilitation and Unknown.

Int nnnck *qulpnwnt.

Flsheries Eqeipment CIDA 0.50 TA component for equlpmnt mintemnce. Unknown.

Flsh Port * Market Facilities EEC 2.50 Construction of fish port and irket Approved to

facilities at Houston (Greeter start March

Georgetown]. TA component to cover 1985.

supervision of construction activities.

Coconut Rehbbilltatlwn FAD ... Rehabilitation of coconut on estates on a Under review.

countrywide basis.

East Bank Essequibo Project IFAO 1.0 To Improve mall farmrs nutritioal Under roview.

status and living standards.

- 66 -

ANNEX It

Page 2 of 5

YMANA - PROPOSED TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE LIST, 1935

Sector and Source of Estimated Cost

Project/Activity Asainttnea (Million US0) Nature of Aesiatence Status

MUINA SETTLENENT

Envirenmental Monitoring UNEP/UNDP ... To develop an environmental monitorlng Under review.

programs for the hydropower at Eclipse

Falls.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE &

OEVELOPMENT FINANCE

Willes Tlmber & Trading ODA 0.50 Six monthe consultant servle s to train Discussion

technlcloa In the operations of steam stage.

turbine for generating power at timber

mill (K*ow Island).

Institutional Strengthening IOB Not Improvemnt of financlal and credit Probably to

of GAIBANK determined. managnes.t, Including upgrading In begin In 1985.

financial analyses and for *tting up

computerizod systems.

INDUSTRY

Micro Hydropower Development IOB 0.05 TA In connection with 25 kw hydropower Approved to

£ Food Processing Plant plant nd construction nd conulssioning start 2nd

- Hoseroro a food processing plant that would quarter 1985.

service the farmers of the region.

lnatitutional Strengthenlng/ IDS 0.60 To strengthen GUYVAs m_nageriln, Approved to

Guyen Water Autbority financial and technical capabillty start let

(Including well-drilling and mnlntenance quarter 1955.

of equipmat).

CEC institutional tOB 1.00 Includes Study on Energy Planning Under review.

Strengthening Collections Systm. Ha_wn Resources 1

training of _mnagement and suporvisory

and techalcal personnl.

Energy Planning & Coordination UNDP ... To develop a systemntic and scientific Under review.

approach to energy sector planning and

coordination within te m_dical system's

overall development plan. (To be *xeeuted

by UN/OTCDT. IOB hes also exprossed

Interest In this aresl possibility of

cost-shering can be considered.

EDUCATION

Edueatlo, Loan IDS 0.50 4snpowr development through the training Approved to

of Individuals In particular skill areas. start 3rd

quarter 198S.

- 67 -

ANNEX II

Page 3 of 5

GUYANA - PROPOSED TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE LIST, 1935

Sector and Source of Entimated Coat

ProjectUActlIt Asmistance (Million UIS) Nature of Assistance Status

II. Otbhrs

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY &

FISRERIES

Institutional Strengthening lDS 0.60 Support for the implementatlen of new Approved to

of Rice Sector inotitutlonal changee In the mector, start 2nd

quarter 1965.

Rural Marketing Centres ID8 0.12 Training of managers of marketing centres Approved to

financed under the Food Crop Productlon £ start let

Marketing Program. quarter 196S.

Food Support Services IDO Not determined To Increase productllty of emoll farmers Probably to

Programa through development and diffusion of start 3rd

Improved technology and efficient quarter 193S.

marketing.

Forestry Conservation 5. CIDA Approximately To upgrade nmnagesmnt cpablilty of the Under review.

Mnagement UNfP 2.00 sector.

FAO

Fisheries Legislation FAO 0.012 Development of Fisheries Legislation. Approved to

start 1985.

In-service Training FAO 0.015 Saw-doctoring in-service training. Approved to

start 1985.

Food Protection ... ... Development of a oltilsectoral system of Under review.

food protection trom the farming

comnunity level through to the

agricultural extension and pubilc heaith

services (WHO/FAO).

Progra.ming/Formulation UNMP 0.04 identiflcatIon of neds for technical To start In

Mission asssltance In agriculture, forestry and March 1985.

rural development; and formulation of

specific projects. (To be executed by

FAG.)

Agroa_terology & Hydrological UNOP 0.329 To computerize all Hydroe_t data; 4 year Under review.

Data Processing programne. (To be executed by fl.)

Legislative Drafting UNOP 0.171 To asaist In the preparation of draft To start In

legislation to give effect to the March 1986.

agricultural, locel government and rural

policles of the Government. (To be

executed by UNDTCD.)

- 68 -ANNEX II

Page 4 sf 5

GUYANA - PROPOSED TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE LIST, 1985

Seoter and Source of Estimated Cost

Projeot/Activlty Aaslstence MlliIon US$) Nature of Aaslntanoe Status

EDUCATION

Multi-Seatoral Programme UNDP 0U093 Assistance In Health, Agriculture Approved.

Education (Executed by UNV Programme).

Strengthening of Edueatlonl UNESCO 0 300 Development of Centre through provision Approved.

Contre of equipment and training of educational

personnel.

Video Productlon Unit UNOP/UNESCO 0.125 Provislon of training In video tape Under revieW

production and editing. approved.

Institute of Aquatic Science UNESCO 0.300 Establishmnt of Institute at the Under review.

University of Ouyan through tle

development of humn resoures eapability

In research and training In m*rine

s oences.

Centre of Excellence for UNESCO 0.101 To asslst In upgrading the teaching of Under review.

Science * Mathemetlca natural science and mothematics

Teaching throughout the edueation system.

Clobrl Training Programme IOB 2.00 Tralning progremnm for m_nagement and Approved to

mid-level human resource development. start In 3rd

quarter 1985.

EMPLOYMENT

Actumriel Review UDoP 0.060 Actusrial Review o1 National Insurance Approved.

Schemel 6 months project (Executed by

ILO).

Management Training UNDP 0.800 Assistance for 2 years to Guyana Under review.

Management Institute. (To be executed by

OTCO/ILO.)

Vocational Training UNOP 0.116 Om ibus operation and maintenance In Under review.

occupatlonal training (STSL) Phose 1.

(To be executed by ILO.)

GENERAL DEVELOPMENT ISSUESs

POLICY & PLANNING

National Planning Systm IOB 0.90 To support system through the collection Under dlecua-

and distribution of basic data for alone to begin

planning purposes, soentle In

1985.

- 69 -

Page S of 5

CUYAMA - PROPOSD TECHNICAL ASSISTAhCE LIST, 1985

Sector and Source of Eatimteoa Coat

Project/ActIvIty Asalatance (Nilli"e USI) Nature of Asalstence Statun

INDWSTRT

WUnSTAC PMengement UNDP 0.501 Continatlon of assistatce In dlagnoatic Approved to

Developmnt Unit studies, developmsnt/. oaitorlag start 1955.

performanes contracts sad anagemen t

training. (Executed by UNMDTCD/UNIDO).

Drying Kiln UmoP 0.028 Construction of prototype Solar Timber Approved for

Drying Kilo. 19e5.

RlieVan Pilot Project UblOO 0.024 To assist In the development nd Under review.

marketing of local food prepared from

ludigenous cereal flours snd other

floursx

NATURAL RESOURCES

Researeh & Dsvelopment IAST UNDIP 0.S98 Proposed expansion of project activities Approved to

and extenimon of the project by one start 1985.

year. (Executed by Government bad

UNIDO.)

Water Reseorces Dovelopemnt FAO 0.020 Drafting leglslation with special Approved.

& Manegemnt Legislation reference to dralege and Irrigation

schemes.

INTElRATIONAL TRADE &

DEVELOPMNT FINACE

Strengtboelag of the UNOP 0.360 To expand and diversify the Under review.

institutional Fraomwork for coe-traditioal exports of Guyana.

Trade Developmat & Promotloo through the strengtbhning of CEPC,

Improvement of trade lnforastlon system,

market studi-r, etc. (To be executed by

ITC. Possible IGB/EEC cost-rhsrlng

envisaged.)

Debt Moeltorlg System UNCTAD 0.040 To manage n a comsprobnive bas is the Under review.

external debt including the anlysis of

all trade Informtlon.

HEALTH

Carlbbean Health Laboraeory UNOP 0.04 Development of s4rvices especially In Under review.

Se!vices rural areas throughout the country. CTo

be executed by WHO/PARD.)

National Nablria servics UNOP and O.SO0 Strengthening of the National inolris Under review.

Othbr Services, Including provision of

Sources vehicles. equipme_t end sppilel (to be

executed by VHO/PAHO).

- 70 -AMin IIIPage I of 7

GUYNA - STUCAURRAL ADJUSTMENT PROCRAM

MAJOR POLICr ACIEVEMEN"T

(1981-U3)

POLICY OBJECTIVE PROGRAM ACHIIEVEIENT

1. Blanc. of Paymntc.

A. Rising petroleum Import Energy coeservation measures and A program to link the GOYINE

bill which has contributed targets adopted by gUtNIWE, GUYSUCO electricity system witb CEC's natlonal

to declining terms of nd other public cerporatlons. system was completed by 1982 and excess

trade and eroaslo In real generation by GUYNINE Is being fed Into

Income levels, and the natlonal grid. GUYSUCO In currently

exacerbated Inflatilon. undertaking program to improve the

efficiency of the us of begasse for the

generation of electricity In a number of

Its factories.

Full transfer of fue price The Energy Authority was *stabilhed In

Increases to con_mers. Closing of 1982 and has Implemented the closure of

gasoline stations n weekends. gasoline statloes on w ekends but

discontinued It In 1983 for safety

reasens. The transfer of fuel price

Increase to consumers b been undertaken.

Rohabilitation and Improved The rehabIlItation of CECOx gonerating

mintenance of CEC generating equlpment In underway. Witb Ia-line

equip-ant and upgrading of CEC's management assistance frm externl

management. eonsultants, som progress Is being ende

to roduce GEC's adeinistrative problems.

Studies of opportunitles for Tho Energy Authority Is coordinatingIncreased use of alternative energy research Into hydro potential, prepars-

sources, tory studies for hydro power development

were midertaken under Bank Loan 1906 and

various Iternative schmes bave been

Identifird.

Studies of eletricity and The findings of the study on tho ration_-

transportation tariff structure and lization of electrIcity tariffs beve been

program for executlon, partial ly lmplemnted through tim adjust.

mnt of electricity tariffs In two stages

by an average of 40S during the first balf

of 1981 and by a further 13S In 1982. The

transportation tariff study Is presently

under review by the Governmnt, but Inple-

mntation Is constrained by the poor per-

formance of the Guyana Transport Corpora-

tion and the Goverment uniIIIpgess to

Increase transport tariff under such

circumstance.

- 71 -A-M IIIPage 2 of 7

GUYANA - SRUCTURAL ADJUSTIENT PROtRAM

MAJOR POLICf ACHIEVEIENt

POLICY OBJECTIVE PROGRAM AOilEVEVENT

B. Stagnant or dcci 1lng Expansion of export actlon program:

export VoalI.

1. Sr - Increased supplies of The lack of foreign excbange as, In

fertilizer and spare recent years. reduced the officlency of

parts. QUYSUCOa mchinery nd equipmnt. The- expanalon of wage wage Incentive progrm has boon

Incentive program expanded. Furthbr cest reduction maures

are being planned by GUTSUCO.

2. Rice2 Coverment Action

Program

- Reconstructlon of the - The program Is copieted; WRe's

Central Rica Board. workforce has been reduced by about 700

peramos In 1982.

- Ectabilsbent of five - A law providing for tie establsiuent

Regional Boards as of up to five reglonal boards, with

commerclally viable memership of at least fIwe rice

operating entities. producers, was passed by Parliament In1962.

- Ellminatlon of CRB's - The functions have been transferred to

functions regarding camercial Importers and dlitributors.

Importation and In addition, millers nd farmrs are

distributing Inputs. now allowed to Import spare parts and

equipment on a no-fund license hoasd.

- Elimination of ORB's - ORB'a credit functions have been

function regardleg the transferred to Guyana Agricoltural and

provision of credit. Industrial Developmnt Bank tCAIBAIK).

- Elimination of ORB's - Transferred to the Hinistry of

functln regarding Agriculture.

extension and research.

- Cloliug of ORB's 'emi1 - ORB's _m1l mills, tractors and

mill*' and leasing or combines hew been taken over by the

seillng prmises to Regional Administrations which re to

prIvte milIlers, organize farmrs cooperatives for the

cooperatives and operation of the mills and mchinery.

regional organizations.

Page 3 of 7

41YAIA - SIRUCTURAL ADJUSINEIIT PROCRA4

MAJOR POLICY ACHIEVEWENT

Cl98l-S3)

POLICY OBJECTIVE PROGRAM ACHIEVEMENT

- Decentrallzing ORB's - Farmers and mIIlr& are now *llcwsd to

local mrketing sall rice directly to retailers and

arrangements. consumers In comptition with the CRB.

ORB however remaina responsible for

administerlng paddy and rice prices

which are set by the Covernment.

- Rolvewlng CRB's - Agroemnt In early 1984 wIth IOB for

external mrketing COC to permit private producers limited

arrangments. access to export markets.

- Phosing out GCB's role - implmnted In mid-1984.

In reeerch and

provision of sued.

3. Beuxite Alwina Government

Actlon Program

Government undertook to - Following Initial discussions with

secure managerial, foreign companies, It becam obvious

techaolgical and that no forelga company wonted te

mrketing support as becoue Involved with the sector without

weil as equity first undertaking a study and that

participation from a equity participation would not be

forelgn company In the considered Intbe short term because of

bauxite Industry. the deprosoed state of International

mrket for bauxite products. In *arly

1983. the Government concluded

contracts with too U.S. companles; one

to prepare a comprehensive water plan

and to provide technialI assistance In

baux It operation, and the other to

conduct diagnostic study with ephasIs

on marketing. The stedies completed In

late August 1983 are under revlew by

COG.

4. Mon-traditional manufacturrer

-Establisment of Export - The EOF was duly established and

Developmnt Fund CEDF) stsffed by early 1981. Towards the and

to provide foreign of 1982 the level of operations of the

exchange for the EDF was reduced because Its resources

manufcturlng sector. were not revolving owing to the

;nability of the Bank of Guyana to

convert soft currency (I.e., CARICOM)export: oroceods Into herd correacy

required.

- 73 -ANMEX Ill

Pap 4 of 7

CUYAKA - STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM

MAJOR POLICY ACHIEVEMENT

(1981-83)

POLICY OBJECTIVE PROGRAM ACI4IEVEMENT

- Appointment of - No action to date.

Industrial Development

Adviser.

- Estabilslnent of Export - Done.

Promotion Unit.

- Estabilialmnt of Export - Tbe Export-Promotion Council and In-Promotlon Council with dustrial Prematlon Council (both with

representatives from private sector representatlon) bave

public mnd private been set up and regular m_tinga are

ectors. being hold between the prlvate t_on-

factoring aector and the Government.

S. Long-term Export Program

- Completion of long-term - The studles and the formlation of the

export program by June loag-t.rm axport action program hove

30, 1981. been delayed. The Government, however,

has initiated a request te GATT/

UNCTAD's International Trade Centre and

the EEC to asIct with those tacks.It. Investment

A. Delays, cost overruns and

Inefficiencies In the Continued close monitoring of pro- The State Planning Secretariat (SPS) Is

public sector Investment. gres of investment program. Uti- currebtly concidering an Improved project

lizatlon of external technical execution and monitoring system with the

assistance to minlmlze potential assistance of an external consultant. An

bottlenecks to project execution. lDB technical asslstance program assisted

In upgrading the staff of the SPS and

Expedition of declsion on contract other project related agencies. Reforms

awards. to expedite physical project lmplement-

tion bhve been slow because of skilled

Delegatlon of greatar authority to m*npowr constraInts (exacerbated by the

project mngers. migration of skilled personnel) and the

country's foreign exchange and fiscalReorganization of NInistry of Works constraints.

to Include specialized functions In

engineering consultancy and addl-

tlonal construction capacity.

- 74 -. tam

Page 5 of 7

GUYANA - STRUCNRAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM

MAJOR POLICY ACM IEVEIENT

(1981-)3)

POLICY OBJECTIVE PROARM ACH IEVEIENT

B. Declining real level of Clariticatlon and expansion of The Sovernment his angaged * foreigo

private lunv9tmt. lIvestnt Code. consultant for drafting the Rowlesed

lnvesbtot Code and a draft aubmltted In

mid-1983 Is currently under review.

lncrease credit resoures available Limited progress becoums of the severity

to private sectors. of the foreign exchange shortage In

Ouyan. esecially since 1982. However

In Iov_ber 1982, the Covernnent decided

to grant mnulacturers a rmlsslon of

cesnptlen taxes an ail Inputs for

goods Intended for export.

Establishent of EOF, Industrlai (See Section 1-8 above).

Adv sar and Export Prmtion

Council.

Ill. Downard Trend In National

Savina

A. Pblic. Sector Savings

1. Persistent current Contined improvemnt In tax Improvements In tax collection and

budgetary deficit, collection sad admlnlstration. edministretion Introduced in oid 1961

reaultOd In a 24Z Increase In Government

current revenues. However In 1982-83. tax

revenues fell below budgeted levels

prlmrily becaune of lower receipts frao

Import duties and consmumption taxes which

reflected the decline In Imports and

economic activity.

Rigorous control of current expen- Current expenditures continued to grow at

diture levels through reductim of a rapid pace Cby about 29Z) In 1981, owing

subsidies and limltationes to a sharp ris In interest paymnts.

Increases In public employment. which accounted for half of the absolute

Incresoe In current outlays. The

Governments' current deficit reached 13S

of CP In 1981. Current expeonditurs

decilied by about 6S In 1962 as a result

of reduction of subsidies and retrecanent

from the traditional cvil l rvice, but

the current account deficit rmelned above

budgeted level at 11.53 of COP. tCompared

to SAL expectation of reduction frm 9S to

SZ of CSP by 1983).

- 75 -ANNEX III

Page 6 of 7

GUYANA - STRUCTURAL ADJUSTIENT PROGRAM

MAJOR POLICY ACHIEVEPENT

(1981-83)

POLICY OBJECTIVE PROGRAM ACH IEVEWEiT

2. Low savings generated Retionlizatlon of pricing policiea The rstloaalizmtlon of electricity

by public for public corporations, pricing ftr GEC and the lmplemntattlom of

corporations. price adjurt_nt were undertaken as

discussed In section IA abeve. Ceneral

ratlonalizatlon of pricing policies for

alI public corporations has been delayed

pending the conclusion of the exercise to

restructure the public corporations upon

the recommendstion of Its Inventmnt

advisory group of foreign consultants.

Estabiisheat of saving targets for In Its 1983 Budget, the Covernment

oil public corporation. reiterated Its Intention to nake all

pubilc corporations viable, but no con-

crete saving targets htvo been

establithed as yet, pending the

reorganization exercise discussed above.

B. Declining real levels of Gradual omvemnt toward real In June 1982, dom_stic Interest rates were

private sector savings. Interest rates through annual up- adjusted upward by betwesn 0.5 to ISf

mrd adjustmeat of 1-2 percentage points, but as a result of lncroases In

points, the rate of Inflation Cabout 201 In 1982)

tbe real Interest rate romned negativo.

IV. Inappropriate Pricing

Policies

A. Low fragnete prices for CompletIon of study and adoption of Paddy prices paid to farmra ware

rice resulting In a system for perIodle adjusatnt of Increeaad by 12-15S In 1981 and by a

reduction In acreage Inputs, farmypte and domastlc con- further 20S In early 1982 In accordance

devoted to crop. sumar priees. with the recosmadations of tho SAL

supervision misslon. At the sam time,

rice purchase pricam were Increased by

25-301, thus Improving mIllers' mrgin and

domestic concsumr prices by about 351. In

ali, between 1981 and 1983, paddy prices

have been Increased by about 40-451 and

domestic consumer pricen by about 701. As

regards further effort to address the

Issue of agricultural commodity prices nd

ectabilsb a systomatic framework for their

revisw nd periodic adjuat nt. the

CoveraLwnt Is currently rewlewing the

findings and recommendations of the

1OU-f itonced consult nts,

- 76 -

MNNEX II I

Page 7 o 7

CUYMA - STRUC1URAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM

MAJOR POLICY ACHIEVEMENT

C1981-1)

POLICY OBJECTIVE PROGRAM ACHIEVEMENT

B. Ratbonelization of Further Increases of electricity Electricity tariffs have been Increased

electricity tariffs. tariffs by 153 In Feb. 1981. Addi- as noted In section IA above. However,

tional nassurem na roquirmd to In mplts of the Improveast resulting from

ilminnte CEC'r cash deficit by the tariff action, CEC's finances bave re-

July 1, 1981. Continuous transfer mined weak because of rising operating

of Increase In fuel costs to cost relating to * docilne In sales and

consomrs. problem of power losses, debt collection

and poor mnagownt. Howver, with

In-line mngemnt assistance from ex-

ternal consultants, progress Is being ovdd

towards reducing theom prebl_.

V. Inmtitutlomel Wakness

A. External debt Continued monitoring and Increased The Governownt loc contracted the mervicea

mnagem_t. control over external borrowing of of Morgan Gronfell Consult ents and the

all public agencles. CFTC to establish systems of mlnitoring

especlally at the corporation level.

B. Public Flnaoce Strengthening of coordination at Limited progres made on both Issues be-

Adminietration. operational levels. cuse of skilled nnpower shortage, ex-

acerbated by migration. However, the

Strengthening of accounting and Governmnt has engaged an external con-

auditing arrangements throughout multant to assist In reforms of the

public mector. GUISTAC group of public corporations.

C. Import Licensing System. Completion of simpilfication of Import IIcensing for EOF more has been

Import licensing procedures In simplified In accordance with the agree-

first quarter of 1981. _nt, but the more general simpilfica-

tion bas not taken place as yet.

VI. Labor Productivity. Continued efforts to clarify and The government plans In Its 1983 budget to

extend wage Incentive schem. provide wage Incentive to selectod skilledmanpower In order to retain thm but the

specific mchanism has not as yet been

worked out.

Extension of on-and-off-the-job The Goverment through an ID8 financed

training scheme to Include middle technical assistance Is providing on-

and senlor mnmagement and skilled tbe-job tralning for professional and

and aei-skilled technical staff. technical staff at the State Planning

Secretariat and the Ministries. There are

plans to extend the program to Include

middle and senior ma_ngmnt personeil.

- 77 -

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table of Contents

I. Pdpulation and Labor Force

1.1 Population Trends1.2 Employment in the Public Sector1.3 Work Stoppages in the Public Sector

II. National Income Accounts

2.1 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at CurrentFactor Cost, 1970-84

2.2 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at ConstantFactor Cost, 1960-76

2.3 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at ConstantFactor Cost, 1970-84

2.4 Implicit Deflators, 1970-842.5 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices2.6 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product at 1960

Prices, 1960-762.7 Estimate of Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product

at Constant 1977 Prices, 1976-842.8 National Income Ratios

III. Balance of Payments and International Trade

3.1 Balance of Payments3.2 Exports FOB3.3 Nerchandise Imports (CIF) by End-Use Category3.4 Value, Volume and Unit Value of Principal Fuel Imports3.5 Direction of Foreign Trade3.6 Trade with CARICOM3.7 Trade Volumes, Unit Values and Terms of Trade

IV. External Debt

4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding Including Undisbursedas of December 31, 1984

4.2 Service eayments, Commitments, Disbursements andOutstanding Amounts of External Debt

4.3 Structure and Terms of External Public Debt4.4 External Public Debt by Type of Creditor4.5 Selected External Debt Indicators

- 78 -

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table of Contents (Cont'd)

V. Public Sector Finances

5.1 Cencral Government Revenues5.2 Central Government Expenditures by Economic

Classification5.3 Summary of Accounts of Central Government5.4 Central Government Financing5.5 Summary Current Account of Public Sector Corporations5.6 Summary Accounts of Public Sector5.7 Public Sector Investment Program5.8 Summary of Public Sector Capital Expenditures

by Sector

VI. Money and Banking

6.1 Summary Accounts of the Monetary Authorities6.2 Summary Accounts of the Commercial Banks6.3 Summary Accounts of the Monetary System6.4 Net International Reserves of the Banking System6.5 External Payment Arrears6.6 Selected Interest Rates6.7 Commercial Bank Credit to Private Sector and

Public Enterprises6.8 Central Government Bonded Debt by Holder6.9 Private Sector Holdings of Selected Financial Assets

VII. Production

7.1 Output of Selected Commodities

VIII. Prices

8.1 Consumer Price Indices8.2 Consumer Price Index by Quarter8.3 Real Effective Exchange Rate and Related Series8.4 Paddy and Rice Prices

IX. Macroeconomic Projections

9.1 Actual and Projected Sources and Uses of Resources9.2 Actual and Projected Balance of Payments9.3 Actual and Projected Exports and Imports9.4 Projected Public Sector Finances9.5 Selected Macroeconomic Indicators

- 79 -

A Note on the National Income Accounts, Consumer PriceIndex and Population Estimates

The data assembled in this appendix were provided by theGovernment of Guyana. Since 1981, the quality of the national accounts,consumer price index and population estimates has deteriorated considerablyfor reasons noted below. The overall data situation has also deterioratedbecause of internal inconsistencies in the accounts and editing problems.

National Income Accounts - The estimates of the gross domesticproduct have deteriorated as a result of a reduction in coverageattributable to non-reporting and the expansion of the parallel market(which affects the import/export data). Furthermore, the expenditure andindustrial surveys that form the basis of the national income accounts areoutdated. The indications are that GDP is underestimated.

Consumer Price Index - The coverage is limited as a result of theprevalence of price controls and the unavailability of a large number ofconsumer commodities originally in the basket. These problems havenecessitated the use of substitutes. The expansion of the parallel marketarnd associated higher prices suggest that the CPI underestimates the rateof increase in prices.

Population Data - The population estimates are based on the 1970population census. The Government has not as yet published the results ofthe 1980 population census. Estimates of births and deaths have also beenmade by the Statistical Bureau of Guyana from 1977 and 1979 onwards,respectively.

Table 1.1 OWY4- PUATION llEWDS

1970m 1971 12 1973 1974 1975 196 1977 1975 1.Y7 1900 1961 1902 1963 1164 196S

Tte4l PopulitlonChurnning tur) 699,15J 704,742 710,326 715,914 721,500 727,12 72,924 735,656 744,640 750,870 756,960 763,07 769,25C m,404 701,7M2 79,092

Total BirUi bi 23,703 23,767 25, 24,100 22,660 23,933 23,154 2s,300 22,70 no,1m23 23,0 23,000 233,000 3,000 23,000 ..

Total eacths 0, 4,8 5,240 5,962 5,569 6,161 5,924 6,251 S,69S S,592 5,560 5,5m 6,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 ..

Natual Population Incres 18,685 15,539 19,103 1,501 16,499 10,009 16,903 17,403 17,100 17,5W 17,425 17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000

Afiarant Not Mligration 4 -15,39 12,953 -13,517 -12,915 -10,674 -12,210 -10,96S -11,423 -11,078 -11,470 -11,307 -10,822 -10,M -10,772 -10,670

(Reported Not MigratIln) (-4,796) (-2,643) (-2,667) (-3,906) (-5,215) (-4,934) (-4,66) (-5,000) (-7,000) (4,000) (II,O0) (10,000) (11,010) (11,000) n,e.

Net Populatlon Incr,se 5,506 5,566 5,56 5,566 5,625 5,7! S,934 5,962 6,O3 6,0M0 6,118 6,179 6,2 6,276 6,m 0

Crude Birth Rate (per '000) 33.9 33A 35.3 33.7 31.4 32A 31.5 31.4 30.4 30.7 30J 30.0 23 29.5 29,3 ..

Crude Ooth Rate (per '000) 6.9 7.4 6.4 7.8 865 801 6s5 7.9 7.5 7.4 793 7.4 e.1 7.7 7.6 ,.

Rate of Natural Inere"s (S) 2.7 2.6 2.7 2,6 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.3 2,3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 ..

a/ April 7, 1970 cenaus shwed population d 669,8 excluding perone In Institutions.

V Estlated from Im enrdr.

ci Estlmted fr= 1979 awrds,V EquAls nt populatl0 Increse less natural population Incrc n.

Scewoe Statiatial Bureau.

JanuaryFlebruery 1965

- 81 -

Table 1.2z GUYANA - EMPLOYMENT IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR

1980 1981 192 1983 1934

(Number of amployses)

Totel Employment 98,048 86,226 77,Si7 7S,006 73,2S5

Central Government 42,000 29,S81 27,502 28,096 21,606

Re.: ^f the Public Sector 56,648 S,24S 50,025 46,910 44,572

Guyane State Corporations

CGUYSTAC Group) 18,100 17,132 14,982 13,669 13,090

Guyana Rice Board (GRB) (3,427) (2,854) (2,469) (1,678) (1,725)

Cuyana Natlonal Engineerlng

Corp. CONEC) (1,576) (1744) (t,542) (1,577) (1,439)

Guyana Stores Limited (GSL) (1,796) (1,912) (1,594) (1,389) (1,3S5)

Guyana Electricity

Corp. (CEC) 11,506) (1,544) (1,33S) (1.240) (1,261)

Guyana Pharmaceutical

Corp. (GPC) (1,119) (1,292) (1,032) (1,107) (1,027)

Guyana Tranaport Corp. CCTC) (1.302) (1,321) (1,111) (1,04S) (1,049)

Other Corporatiotes (7,374) (6,465) (5,899) (5,633) (5,238)

Guyana Sugar Corp. (GUYSUCO) 31,126 31,374 26,077 28,043 26,686

Guyana Mining Enterpries Ltd.

(GUYMINE) 7,620 7,739 6,966 5,196 4,796

(As percent of total employment)

Centrel government 42.5 34.6 35.5 37.5 39.2

Rest of the public sector S7.5 65.2 64.S 62.S 60.8

GUYSTAC Group 18.3 1.9 19.3 18.2 17.9

CUYSUCO 31.5 36.; 36.2 37.4 36.4

GUYMINE 7.7 8.9 9.0 6.9 6.5

Sources State Planning Secretariat.

January/February 1985

- 82 -

Table 1.3s W!MI - VC SIWASM IN U IC ClM

1970 1971 19 1975 1174 1S75 196 17 197 1979 16 IUI 132 16 164

. of Strlhe In 199 123 I# InI 113 a4 W30 300 219 3 621 Go 731 433

Saw Idtry a 134 o 145 114 S 34 33 281 ID 276 sio 63 704 450Other ai 65 43 3 24 25 s 57 D 61 57 3 14 27 13

Wumrca lnmoved 64,100 41,447 3,516 37,89 66,335 8,51 49,U42 U,7 52,060 106,3 40,652 67,697 41,4 103,519 60,0Supr I try .. .. .. 32,35 3,31 O,U4 45,010 42,19 41,215 11,463 35,475 64,100 60,373 94,5 311,773

Our .. .. . 5,54 7,532 3,025 4,353 6C, 3, 14,SOS 5,177 3,517 1,191 6,701 1,521

bym-deay Last 454,000 141,e16 146,909 93,481 151,169 351,723 175,166 964,262 75 nl 324,473 e7620 125,582 140,744 Z90,2S5 236,157Slpr ldutry .. .. .. 66,63 143,620 334,216 165,931 132,42 72,175 139,091 60,593 110,116 127,967 164,303 1S2,000Othtr .. .. 26,70 7,341 17,505 9,235 31,610 2,916 15,32 7,027 IS,U4 12,757 125,966 144,1S7

Wbpe Lost COS MlIIIon) 2.62 0.62 5.31 0.74 1.3 2.71 1.79 10.2 0.36 6.4 1.2 2.6 3.3 5.1 3.3

Supr luutry .. .. .. 0.1 1.21 2.71 1.76 10.0 0.96 2.6 1.1 2.3 3.1 3.0 3.0Other .. .. .. 0M 0.9 - 0.11 0.2 - 3.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.1 O.OC

Sources, Nlaletry ef Laborl Stte Pluming Secretaretj rnd WVSUC0.

J'numryrJFebrury ISIS

- 83 -

TI*3 L.s QfIA - ECMR& 111C G SEIC F- A aMa mit wU, 19I0W1

Pftl..

1970 371 37.3 1974 1915 376 197 37 7 16 91 92 193

!Eut- foE= ad Flfb 90.1 1t.7 102 0r.3 2M14 341.4 .A0 210 23.6 co. 32 33.0 m.A 21. 37.0-,s S;7W -sU 7n3& r~ -a 3mU IW.Ws XD7. I4 712.5 543 3.7 0.7 184.7 235.5 141.6 17.3 17.0 121.0 14A. 1.0 84. 76.0100

Rim 13.2 11.2 9.3 18 2.4 31. M 4.0 41.0 31.0 41.0 D30 46.0 46.0 4.0

oao crN 137 4.5 12 17.7 19.7 2L5D 20 31C MA .0 4e.0 S1 65.0 75.0 60.0

Ll_s.tdk 3.2 113 113 13 5JW 19.51 2IS 24 37.5 30 4.5 440 .0 0.0 0SA

F tr_y SJ 5.0 5S 6.0 7.6 U5 10.0 0t 11.0 120 15.S 19.0 2D.0 M. 31.0

Flsbi 51 S.4 S.9 6 .6 9 0.0 2 t.J 13.5 15.5 17.0 22.0 72.0 33D. 31.0

Muitg m.d nryIu 85.5 90.J7 .? 80.5 114.5D 141.0 4. I61.2 1I0.5 is. mD IOD a8D. 17.0 SS.0

-aItR md A13in 91D.0 8. 5.7 763 10.15 13S.0 II.0 154.2 16SS 13.0 210.0 810 70.0 1.0 45I.0

OtU_ 4.5 4.7 5.0 4.2 4.0 6.0 7.0 10 13.S 10.5 II.0 6D 1.0 16.0 tD.0

_I.q i and M! _!!aaIa 57.0 61.3 . 64.3 121.3 161.6 139 1. 131.5 146.0 1I2.0 211.0 19D.0 1t50 16

4.wr griIlog 15. tSJ t9.9 I7.5 64.9 86.4 49.1 7J 1 3.0 43.0 49.0 40.0 21.0 23.0 3.0

Ric no I3Ig 3.9 3.2 Li 2L9 5.9 6.2 4.5 9.2 3.5 6.0 t.0 1t1 16.0 IDA 17

O6.r ad 3.1 3.0 41.9 43.9 49.5 69J) 81. 86.6 86. 97.0 103. 15D.0 135.0 121.0 133.0

C.1,tr 31. 31.6 42.7 47.D 52.7 74.3 8s5 769 15.0 85.0 95. 110.0 S5. 95.0 100.0

Sarlc. 190.5 206.1 2MD ZAL5. 317.9 3?9.2 47.5 444.5 488.0 51.0 56.0 631. S36. 6D.0 71.S

0ii 55.5 514. .7 649.4 S 942 I05.1 100.0 104.0 117.0 115.0 145.0 123.0 121. O

Trasiport _nd Colncatis 27.7 29J8 3Z. 363 46t3 49.9 SS.0 SL0 6S0 72.0 75.0 90.0 6.0 9.0 100.0

:3t of 0_ Its" 30. 113 11.9 12.5 13.7 15.0 16.0 14 17.3 0 1 25.0 2.0 21.0 3.0

FlaI Savlm 16.3 1. 19.1 72.0 27.0 34.7 33. 8 4"10 45.0 S. 61.0 6O0 a5. 95.0

t 64.S 73.1 87. 121.2 126.6 13.8 193.4 2D.5 23D0 231.0 29D 276.0 23.0 25S.0 315.0

ot nJ U U19.0 9.721.6 Z3.S 25J.6 Z7D 0 2.0 3D.0 34.0 40.0 A0 4.0 53.0

Teotl COP at Fchtr Cost 470.0 49.4 5 S7. 869.5 1.0!17. 1.0.4 1.0193 1,13.6 1,1ID. I,DC6D l.D.O 1.1.0 1.20D. 1,410.0

to" ract Tae 05 DD 2.9 11.1 107.7 12.9 4.7 327.0 46.0 164. 190.0 MA 25.0 25A)

255.0 20.0

SaldIla (-3 4.2 4.3 4.3 9.7 2.8 3L9 45.9 21.7 14.0 17.0 18.0 1.0 12.0)

Totl MOP at _Arlmt Prica 535.6 54.1 94 3 611.8 54.7 1,187. 1,13.2 1,124.6 1,27.6 1,37.S5 1,506701. 07D 1.0 1,455.0 1,700.0

*r Iaciel- aletrlelty. gs md water.

Swcns State Plamig Seatrtwat, Statlatlml Bar_.

jamopf,m-oy "a

- 84-

Table 2.2: GUYANA - SEtTORAL ORIGIN OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

AT CONSTANT FACTOR COST. 1960 - 1976 of

(CS million - 1970 prices) -

1960 1965 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

Agriculture. Forestry * Fishing 52.7 90.5 90.1 96.5 d8.1 87.5 100.5 97.2 102.2

Sugar 43.3 39.4 42.8 49.2 41.3 37.7 46.7 39.3 46.5

Rico 12.7 16.6 13.2 11.2 8.5 10.3 13.4 14.8 10.2

Other Crops 14.3 14.5 13.7 15.4 16.4 16.4 17.1 18.6 17.J

Livestock 4.1 10.4 10.2 10.6 11.3 11.7 10.5 12.9 15.2

Forestry 5.4 5.4 S.1 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.3 5.7

Fishing 2.9 4.2 S.1 5.4 5.4 6.2 7.2 6.3 6.S

Mining and Quarrying 48.9 76.7 95.5 92.7 82.3 79.7 85.2 85.1 75.0

Manufacturlng and Processing 45.8 51.9 57.0 64.0 64.9 65.4 79.1 89.5 96.5

Sugar Milling 18.3 17.9 15.0 19.6 17.5 12.6 18.5 18.3 16.0

Rice Milling 1.7 3.2 3.9 3.2 2.5 2.9 3.8 4.4 3.0

Other b/ 25.8 30.8 38.1 41.2 44.9 49.9 56.8 66.8 77.5

Construction 30.8 19.2 36.8 38.3 40.5 41.5 38.5 51.3 53.0

Services 136.0 154.3 190.5 194.6 199.5 216.8 223.6 264.9 250.0

Distribution 41.4 47.2 53.5 52.9 52.8 57.9 58.4 73.0 77.0

Transport and Com_unicatIons 24.5 23.9 27.7 28.1 27.6 29.5 31.0 33.8 32.9

Rent of Dwelllng 8.2 8.4 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.7 15.0 16.0

Flnancial Services 10.5 11.0 16.3 17.6 17.8 18.6 18.6 20.2 21.0

Government 35.3 48.1 64.5 65.9 71.2 79.9 85.2 106.1 116.4

Other 16.1 IS.7 17.7 18.8 18.5 18.4 16.7 16.8 16.7

TOTAL 344.2 392.8 469.9 486.1 475.6 490.9 526.9 588.0 606.7

a/ Official data on GOP at 1970 prlcea do not extend beyond 1976.

bi Includes electricity, gas and water.

Sourcee Statistical Bureau.

January/February 1985

- 85 -

Table 2.3s : MAi - SEaUL ORIGIN OF 1I5 II C PROWII

AT CM= FACU am, 97-1964

EC S m I lam - I9 prics)/

PrI.

10 1s7n 19 72 19D 3 S74 1975 197 197n 7 I79 t19 1951 1912 1963 1954

Aricultw. Fo ry & Flslbg 15 207 165 1N 23 210 2M 210 2 213 214 219 216 193 2W0

sW S2 10 8 51 1l0 04 100 77 Us 96 as 99 93 63 8o

Rice 33 2a 2 26 38 31 2a 49 42 33 3 38 42 31 42

Dor Crcm 2a 32 34 3 36 3 37 20 35 34 36 3S 37 41 43

LIvetoc7 21 22 2S 2a 2 21 31 2 25 27 20 2S 22 15 15Fostry 11 10 10 11 12 11 12 Uo 10 9 8 7 a 7 6

F lb Ing 10 10 10 12 14 12 12 13 12 14 14 13 12 13 14

Mining mad O_rying 21 201 178 173 Ias U4 162 164 145 132 140 124 as 66 97

Baxite and Alumna 197 191 165 164 79 176 154 154 134 124 135 114 . ..

OtUr 10 10 10 9 6 a 8 10 11 a 7 10 t o

_mfactawig and Pnr salag 80 94 91 86 108 119 1ZZ 123 126 131 132 140 122 99 100

Sagr MulIIIng 2 46 41 29 43 43 37 27 33 5i 33 32 ZS 27

RimMl NII Ing 6 5 4 5 6 7 5 9 8 6 7 7 10 a 10

Othsr bti s3 45 46 52 59 9 80 87 8: 92 95 100 80 63 63

Cstrtlm 64 67 71 73 67 90 93 77 66 68 70 71 64 61 61

Svce 3M8 315 324 35Z 305 42 455 445 4A 432 436 435 39S 2 3B7

Distributlo 74 73 73 S0 81 101 W7 100 83 87 E9 as 6B 55 5

Transport.d Cmmincatlias 47 45 47 50 53 51 1 so 56 6 64 64 63 63 65

Ra. of DwellIngs 11 12 12 13 14 5 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 t6 17

Financlal Serlcss 21 34 !5 3S 36 3 41 43 41 40 41 42 40 40 40

Goveranmt 114 117 iS 142 151 188 207 2D1 203 i4 205 207 191 187 187

Other 31 31 31 31 20 as 2 21 25 2 21 21 21 21 2a

TOTAL P54 84 852 872 941 1,05Z 1,050 1,019 979 992 989 886 801 845

a/ Official data on 0P at 1977 prices do not coer the yeas prlr to 1977. Oato far 1970-76 hoae bei esthitad - the basis of etowal and

sabsctoral grwth rates derived fran Table 2.2.

Vi Include electricity, ge and water.

Sowrs: State Pnning Secretriat, Statisticel Dura. aid mission estinmtes.

Jam.ryFfsbrmry 1955

- 86 -

TabWO 2.4: UWYMA - IWLICIT FaOID 19104

C1971 - 100)

ProSl

1910 9171 IS72 193 1974 1975 1915 lgn 1 19 1979 1910 S 1961 19 1913 194

Agriciltwr. Fretry

and S hsng 45.2 4e.1 55.4 .5 12-.1 16Z.6 105.3 100.0 112.1 I 5.7 145.5 17.0 15.2 I0 173.5

Mining acd rryLing 4S.1 45.1 5W.4 46.5 6Z.1 A6 89.5 100.0 173.1 12S.4 157.l f.15 103.5 25.5 67.0

hrutect*.ig ad

Processlig 71.3 65.2 10.2 74.8 111.3 135.8 110.6 100.0 109J 111.5 122J 4IJ-A 5.7 159.6 183.0

Constructiam 57.5 57.6 60.1 64.3 8.7 82.6 91.4 100.0 113.6 1.0 15.7 154.5 18.4 160.7 163.9

Servlas 61.5 65.4 71.0 79. 87.6 88.4 96.2 100.0 115.1 119.2 12.2 5.7 149.4 166.5 184.5

GOP at Facto Cst 55.0 55.4 62.3 66.1 92.4 106.4 911.9 100.0 114.7 10.8 134.4 136. 141.1 149.8 166.9

Sowcoz Tables 2.1 ad 2.3.

JaamrpFebrwry g1985

- 87 -

Tbe 2Se OffmJ - Elnul s c m S ltsnC PWma Ar t04T cIEs

cc s mIllielD

_s0 lfl 1972 173 I S4 I s s 1376 ISM I" 17 IS " 1#l 191 o2n ISOS 19"

Toft al Cmtio 46.7 40116.0 S.2 571. IS4.2 71.5 J0. 97Z.0180.0 2.0 0" 1217.0 1379. 131.0 36.0 15110.0

Pilc 90! 101.7 11.9 11.7 IS=.2 J 3It4J 230.0 26.0 3Z.0 0AI.0 410.0 0.0 46S.0 5S.0

Private CrwlIl) 335S 3.3 5n13 417.3 W0 524 3.7J 16 112 . 6027120 M 7C1l.0 90 876.0 03.0 0W.0

Cram D titc t 121.9 _OS. I2. 1t1 5.5S. 364 .5 3F.8 230.0 411.0 489.0 SXID 30.0 365. 330.0

Fld Capitol Fomtlm 112.5 12J8 1083 154 SBJ 36.0 331.0 230.0 21D 32. 406.0 300.0 330.0 3345.0 330.0

Pilic 5l. GSA 13 .4 36L.7 134J 2 I0.0 311.0 2N. 295.0 20.0 354. 47DD 39.0 35.0 310.0

Prlvate 578J r5. 38.9 4.J 63.S 703 70.0 6D.0 47.0 65 70.0 30.0 50.0 60.0 80.0

Cheap is lnentories S.2 2.3 10.6 2D.7 51.0 4Q3 4.2 5.0 VI8. W6 .0 3D. - - -

ba 1ss b as, 49 21.0 -7.8 -1t7.7 U.4 43 -53.1 -115.0 -- 12S. -251O 412.D 0 25.0 6.0 D070.0

Eaprtz of Goo" & WS 324 323.5 344A 336.5 612.S 834 115.5111.0 808.0 1D3.0 U10A. 1 702.0 67S.0 6112.0

laprts of Goods 4 IFS 3053 36.S 35.2 448.2 4.J 9.7 3.9 8.0 8.0 96 130.0 1362. 107.0 913.0 II5Z.0

Cros Ostic Product atC_,_t _k.t Pria l.6 564.1 9193 644. 954.7 1187.8 125.2 1124A 12.0 1326.0 1508.0 11597.0 t 1446.0 11S5. no0

Not Factor lam frm Abroad -42.S -N.0 -22 -31.7 -63 -33.0 41.0 -67.0 -644S -77.0 -105.0 -T63.4 -1.2 -67! -77.3

Gross btlemi Product at

C.r_s * _t Prima .1 S.1 577.2 613.1 905.4 1U1A 2073.2 17.6 134.0 1231.0 1403.0 1434.0 1316.0 1371 1.0

Cros ometic Sayinp 118.9 1.1 111.1 67.8 270.5 332.3 U2.9 151.0 20.0 3a6. 291.0 218.0 05.0 97.0 123

Not Trnsfwr frm Asrod 0.5 .5 403 -1.3 4.0 9.2 -1546 49!9 -1.6 0. -S53 - 44.6 2.0 t8

aross itlami Swim"s 76/ 9 6O 06 88.6 34.0 22.2 333.2 66. 74.8 T8.9 M9.0 t10.7 55.2 -19.8 t.1 60.7

Cross fastloal Products at

Cauvet lhrt PrIma 493J 531. 5J77.J 613J 90154 1154.1 1015.2 1057. 1234.0 1251.0 140. 1434.0 1316.0 1317.1 163.0

Deprcistil, 33.8 34.1 3360 35! 40.0 5.0 54.0 60. 70! 85.0 95.0 103.0 118.0 120.0 12.0

met Ibtioml lacm at

Cagst AI_t Prilm 59.3 494.0 541. 517.2 855.4 110.8. 1021.2 9974 1134.0 1166.0 9108 MD.0 136.0 1247J 14930

lIdirect Tas lost Sdasldi 65.6 65.7 6.6 68.4 84! 90.0 97.8 10S. 132.0 147.0 272.0 247.0 196.0 2SS 20.0

Cross NatErnol Prodect at

Current Factr Cost 427.5 462.4 90.5 544.7 82.5 1064. 977.4 952.3 1007 1019! 11360 1014.8 02.0 992.1 123B!

o Donstic evinga ple not factor 1m pil Mt ar.mt trans

Souces Stats Plaming Sacret_art .d Statiaticml Bau.

Jinr,Fr 19r

- 88 -

Tablo 2.6: GUYANA - EXPENDITURES ON GROSS DOMESTIC PROOUCT AT 1960 PRICES, 1960-76

(GS million)

1960 1965 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

Consumption 291.5 329.0 416.7 424.7 446.4 468.7 483.1 533.4 600.8

Public 45.0 64.0 90.9 93.9 98.5 112.7 110.6 IS5.2 209.2

erivate 246.5 265.0 325.8 330.8 347.9 356.0 372.5 378.2 391.6

Investment 107.1 97.8 121.8 104.0 86.9 129.9 117.0 201.3 172.2

Flixed Capitol Formation 103.6 85.9 112.6 101.9 79.1 111.9 84.2 172.4 147.8

Public 54.8 65.4 53.6 77.1 57.2 137.8 120.6

Private 57.8 36.S 25.5 34.8 27.0 34.6 27.2

Change In Inventories 3.5 11.9 9.2 2.1 7.8 18.0 32.8 28.9 24.4

Exports Less imports -18.0 7.7 -3.0 22.0 6.5 -49.5 -12.6 -86.0 -109.1

Exports of Goods * NFS 218.3 276.3 302.4 312.6 289.9 272.4 273.8 269.4 258.3

Imports of Goods & NFS 236.3 268.6 305.4 290.6 283.4 321.9 286.4 355.4 367.4

Gross Domestic Product at

Current Market Prices 380.5 434.6 535.6 SS0.7 S39.8 549.1 587.5 648.7 663.9

Exports (import capacity) 202.2 2S7.4 302.4 310.3 277.1 243.9 294.7 355.4 266.8

Terms of Trade Effect -16.1 -18.9 - -2.3 -12.8 -28.5 20.9 86.0 8.5

Gross Domestic Income 364.4 415.7 535.6 548.4 527.0 520.6 608.4 734.7 672.4

Not Factor Incomo Payments .. .. -42.5 -33.9 -17.9 -23.0 -22.3 -13.2 -21.7

Gross Natlonal Product at

Current Market Prices .. .. 493.1 516.8 521.9 526.1 565.2 635.5 642.2

gross National Income CONY) ., .. 493.1 514.5 509.1 497.6 586.1 721.5 650.7

Gross Domestic Savings 72.9 56.7 118.9 123.7 80.6 51.9 125.3 201.3 71.6

Gross National Savings a/ ,, ,, 76.9 90.3 62.5 28.0 99.4 184.5 44.4

OeflIator

COF at m.p. 0.805 0.834 1.000 1.024 1.110 1.174 1.625 1.831 1.711

Consumption 0.800 0.882 1.000 1.031 1.094 1.231 1.416 1.491 1.654

Investment 0.770 0.824 1.000 1.011 1.368 1.351 2.155 1.950 2.471

Exports 0.651 0.725 1.000 1.054 1.188 1.235 2.383 3.301 2.907

Imports 0.703 0.778 1.000 1.062 1.243 1.380 2.214 2.503 2.814

Terms of Trade Index 92.6 93.2 100.0 99.3 95.6 89.5 107.6 131.9 103.3

a/ Equals b-KY loes consumption plus/mlnus current transfer,.

Sources Statistical Bureau; mission estimates.

January/Februar y 1985

- 89 -

Table 2.7s GUYANA - ESTIMATE OF EXPENOITURES ON CROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

AT CONSTANT 1977 PRICES, 1976-84

(6$ million)

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1964

Total Conamptlon 1013 973 819 848 856 817 732 683 7..7

Public 354 290 240 283 307 278 243 234 274

Private (resIdual) 661 683 579 565 551 539 489 449 513

Cross Domestic Investment a/ 463 327 220 304 309 331 221 226 172

FIxed Capital Formation 415 290 205 245 278 313 221 226 172

Changes In Stock 48 37 15 59 31 16 - - -

Resource Balance -318 -175 61 -70 -65 -29 23 -3 -19

Exports of Goods & NFS dX 819 711 778 675 732 692 532 488 475

Import& of goode & "FS d/ 1137 886 717 745 797 721 509 491 494

Gross Oomestic Product at Market Prlcesb/ 1158 1125 1100 1082 1102 1119 976 906 940

Not Factor Incone from Abroad c/ -66 -67 -55 -59 -74 -109 -83 -58 -38

Gross Natural Product at Market PrIcos 1092 1058 1045 1023 1028 1010 893 848 902

gross Domestic Savings 145 152 281 234 244 302 244 223 153

Not Transfers from Abroad cX -17 -10 -14 1 -11 - -16 1 9

Gross National Savings a* 62 75 212 176 159 193 145 166 124

Deflators

GOP at market prices 0.981 1.000 1.153 1.226 1.368 1.427 1.482 1.606 1.809

Consumption 0.980 1.000 1.231 1.229 1.418 1.688 1.791 1.988 2.008

Investment 0.919 1.000 1.182 1.326 1.453 1.599 1.719 1.751 2.271

Exports of GNFS 0.917 1.000 1.028 1.175 1.423 1.517 1.489 1.383 2.857

Imports of GNFS 0.909 1.000 1.116 1.232 1.506 1.889 2.037 1.982 2.332

MUV Index (adjusted) 0.925 1.000 1.176 1.308 1.417 1.497 1.569 1.522 2.009

Guyana CPI Index 0.903 1.000 1.195 1.381 1.558 1.903 2.167 2.436 3.057

a/ Current price data deflated by composite Index of MUV (weight 0.75) and Guyana CPI (0.25).

bh Equals GOP at factor cost at constant 1977 prIceo (TabIJ 2.3) plus Indirect taxes less subsidies,

both defiated by Guyana CPI.

cX Deflated by NUV Index (adjusted for currency valuation).

dl Morchandiae exportslimporta In Cs (Table 3.1) deflated by Gs prlce Indices (Table 3.7) pluns NFS In G$

(Table 3.1) deflated by NUV (adjusted).

a/ Domestic savings plus not factor Income plus not transfers.

Sourcos MInslon estimates.

January/February 1985

- 90 -

Table 2.A: UfIA - WATIW lNE RATloS

Pnr.

1970 1971 1972 197 1974 1975 197 9 17 19 19SO 19s19 I62 1983 1964

Secbtrl O qu as a Pe.tag

of UP at Cwt_t Fact.r Cost

AgrimIturs, Forestry

nd Flairy 19.2 20.4 19.6 1A.4 30.4 31.1 22.7 2.7 22.6 22.3 Z5.4 22.2 23.4 24.3 24.6

MlaIng aid Oirrylg 203 18.2 16.9 14.0 13.2 125 14.0 16.1 15.7 14.4 16.5 7.5 7.0 1.4 4.6

N_f etwlig an Procasag 1I2 12.3 12.0 11.2 13.5 14.7 13.0 12.1 12.1 12.4 12.1 14.9 14.3 13.2 13.0

Costructlin 7.1 7.7 S.C 8.2 6.1 6.5 8.2 75 6.6 7.2 7.1 8.1 7.6 8.2 7.1

ServIcs 40.5 41.4 43.3 483 3S5 34.5 42.1 436 43.0 437 40.9 43.3 47.7 52.9 50.7

Total 0OO0D 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. 10.0 I 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0

Ustlaut Iome Catagoris as a

Fr_MM_g of lOW at Cu t lbrbt Prices

Cam_tlo. 77. 77.6 S1s 895 71.7 67.o 87.5 a6 7.2 7.S 78.2 84.2 90.2 93.3 929

Gross Domatic luwtstt 22.7 18.6 t9J 27.2 26.4 33.1 37.4 2.1 21.8 3.9 3.2 35.3 25. 271J 22.9

Gr* D Omstic Savls 22.2 22.4 18.5 10.5 w.3 35.0 12.5 13.3 21.8 2I.S 21.0 15.0 9.8 6.6 7.1

Ext of Coods md WS Si.5 58.4 575 52.2 6.3 74.9 66.1 63.2 63.1 5I.7 6.1 65.7 54. 46.4 51.

I1ort o Goods id WS 57.0 51.7 sa 68.9 66.4 74.9 91.0 18. 63.1 69.1 79.5 85.3 71.7 66.9 67.8

Gross Natioal SsVlI a 15.5 17.1 15.4 5.7 S5 30.3 6.2 7.1 14.9 16.8 12.2 3.5 -1.5 0.o 3.7

a/ Am Z of QP at ukt pr lc

Soaces Tables 2J md 2.5.

J m _ryff.ury 1935

- 91 -

Tubl. 3.s GIIYANA - StANCE OF PAYIENTS

1US$ Nillion)

Pr. I .

1974 1975 1976 2377 Im 1373 96o l1 31S2 1963 1294

Exports of Goads end

leufectur Services 212.7 377.6 234.4 273.b 313.6 311.0 40U6. 373.3 264.0 225.0 230.5

Nerceadlie Exports 270.2 364.3 278.9 253.3 295.5 232.5 351.0 344.4 242.2 193.3 201.2

(Suar) (127.3) (175.4) (101.53 (72.0) (92.01 (90.4) (21.0) (206.A) (67.731 (6.3) (5.8)

(bauzitei (69.B) (IZ2.61 (113.23 (129.9) (130.3) (126.4) C380 (152.7) (104.4) (73.3) (S9.4)

(Rice) 122.0) (36.01 (23.91 (25.2) (37.6) (31.7) 34.0) (39.1) (20.2) (21.7) (23.91

(Otber) (30.7) (30.43 (35.41 (30.4) (35.0) (42.0) (46.) (43.3) (2343 (29.0) C31.1)

eletector Servlces 22.4 13.3 15.5 19.5 28.1 2e.3 19.0 2DA 21.8 31.7 29.3

Imports of goods end

Nonfector Services -2"4. -Sn.? -405.4 -347.5 -313.7 -360.0 -470.6 -484.3 -345.7 -324.3 -301.!

terchenie41e Imorte -254.4 -344. 5363.7 -315.4 -27 - .0 -439A. -2604 -248.3 -222.2

(CeAeaer) (-47.9) (-55.21 (-64.3 (4-56.2) (-5.4) C-57.8) (42.0) C-7.D) (36.0) (-2S.0) 1-14.4)

iuteredlate) 1-43.2) (-127.5) (-122.5) (-11.2) (-96.5) (-220.4) (-126.0) 1-153.0) (45.9) -76.6) (48.0)

(Capitol) ('65.7) 1-112.4) (-228.8) (-".) (40.2) (-57.2) (-76.0) (-77.0) 16.9) (-48.0) I-36.6)

(Fel 8 LubrIeant) 1-'46.2) (-57.21 (-53.51 (62.9) (46.71 C-90.3) (-141.0) (-149.0) t-109.0) (46.0) (-202.9)

(Nlecelaneous) (-1.5) (-I.33 (-3.51 (-9.4) C-2.0) 1-2.01 (-3.0) 1-3.0) (-2.6) (-2.0) (-1.3)

lonfector Services -30.1 -33.6 -41.7 -52.0 -34.A -42.3 -74.6 -44.7 65.3 -76.0 -76.9

Resource gelance 6.3 -0.2 -110.1 -3.6 -0.1 -49. 462.0 -111.0 -41.7 99.3 -70.6

Factor Service. (Net) -2!. -34J 23.9 -25.3 -25.3 -30.2 -41.2 1 .2 -45.4 -29.3 -20.2

Interest am Media end

Loeg Tern Debt of 14.7) (10.33 (-29.I (-152.2) -17.3) (-25.2) (-26.7) (-36.2) (-24.11 (-24.1) (-26.2)

Other Cnet) 1-13.4) (-3.73 (-4.1) (-11.2) (4.0) (-5.0) (-14.5) (-22.0) (-19.3) (-5.2) (-4.0)

Current Transtere (nU1 -3. -3.9 -4. -3.9 -6.5 0.3 -6.D 0.2 -6.2 0.7 4.7

Current Accornt Eblne -17.5 -16.0 -240.9 -96.6 -31.7 -76.9 -109.2 -164. -135.3 -227.9 -C6.2

Public Capital (net) af 29.7 U.2 56.3 30.5 Z7.3 31.6 52.2 124.0 54.4 25.0 12.7

Gross Olabereeinente (33.0) (34.73 (70.03 (47.2) (59.)} (97.7) (95.0) (167.0) (77.4) (46.2) (26.5)

Artlzatlou t-5.3) (-6.53 (-13.2) (-26.7) (-32.3) (-66.2) (-42.8) (-43.0) (-23.03 (-21.I) (-14.8)

other Ca;lt"l (Net) b/ 16.3 -32.0 -6.7 36.6 -6.0 -6.5 -41.0 -27.3 -14-S -45.6 -".2

Capital Account felees 46.0 57.2 50.2 63.1 19.3 25.1 11.2 106.7 33.9 -60.6 -56.4

Overall Iblomc -45.0 26.5 39.Z -90.7 -12.4 -53.6 e 9.0 -62.2 43.5 -I86U -142.5

Chnage In Crclei Arrears c.

tlcrease - *) - - - - 22.2 5.2 17.0 91.0 113.1 201.1 274.6

Chongee In Net Reeerves d

tincreae - -I -26.5 -53.2 90.7 29.7 -. 8 46.6 11.0 -2eA -13.6 -12.6

a' Booed on Tobl- 4.2; exlcdee short-trm public debt.

O/ Residel; IIncludes direct leat_snt, private cepitol, chart-torn capital. errore and

mission. SlDR allocatie debt refinanclngtdeferent and other.

cl incides Bent of Guyane arreers arleing frm noe-psyment of Intrent an bilatarel

deueolts and ClCF bhlences Iu erreere (Table 6.53.

d goes not iecicdo Benk of B"amn liabilities -n accost of arresre ad canges In IW position.

4eureal stotieticl lnean, B.Ah of Cuane, I, minion estlntes.

January/February 1965

- 92 -

Tabl. 3.2: GUYANA - EXPORTS, FOB

t(S millon)

Pr.l.

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

Total exports 602.4 858.1 711.2 661.2 753.5 745.9 992.3 968.5 754.S 580.0 770.0

Re-Exports 6.5 17.5 16.1 9.3 14.0 9.3 15.9 20.7 26.3 20.0 25.0

Domestic Exports 595.9 840.6 695.2 651.9 739.5 736.6 976.4 947.8 728.2 560.0 745.0

Agriculture 373.7 541.6 376.2 291.9 376.4 374.3 456.8 474.9 361.6 309.1 357.1

Sugar 284.8 413.1 259.0 185.7 234.1 230.6 307.6 305.9 263.1 206.0 225.0

Rice 49.0 84.8 73.6 66.6 96.0 80.8 87.5 110.0 60.7 64.9 50.0

Other 39.9 43.7 43.6 39.4 46.3 62.9 61.7 59.0 37.4 36.2 52.1

molasses t9.9) t5.9) (6.0) t6.02 (8.9) (13.1) (12.2) (12.9) (6.3) (2.3) (3.4)

Rum and other (15.6) (17.7) (14.0) (9.11 (I1.6) (15.1) (20.5) (20.6) (11.7) (10.6) (15.0)

alcoholic bevereges

Shrimp (8.2) (10.4) (12.9) (12.31 (12.4) (17.6) (7.8) (2.7) (2.3) (4.0) t14.6)

Neutral spirits t--) C--) C--) 1--) t--) C--) C--) C--) (2.3) (5.4) (5.0)

Timber (5.4) (8.5) (9.7) (9.11 (1O.9) (14.3) (16.2) (15.3) (14.0) (13.3) (13.7)

Other (0.8) (1.5) (1.0) (2.92 (2.5) (2.8) (5.0) (7.5) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4)

Minerals 208.1 273.8 289.7 332.4 333.5 328.1 480.7 430.1 317.5 225.4 351.6

Calcined bauxito 125.8 163.1 190.6 211.5 201.6 218.3 305.5 259.5 205.8 144.9 253.0

Dried bauxite and 27.5 41.5 33.7 41.2 45.5 54.8 62.4 78.1 71.4 68.1 93.0

alumina cement

Alumina and alumina 47.5 67.7 64.4 78.5 82.0 53.7 111.4 91.9 35.9 7.0 0.0

hydrate

Gold 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 .. .. 4.0 5.0 5.0

Diamonds 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6

Other manufactured 19.1 25.2 29.3 27.6 29.6 34.2 38.9 42.8 49.1 25.6 36.3

Clothing 4.3 5.6 8.9 7.1 5.6 5.4 6.0 4.2 3.4 --

Footwear 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 -- -

Drugs 1.9 2.8 4.3 3.9 5.3 6.6 7.4 4.4 5.4 --

Perfumery 1.5 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.2 4.5 5.4 4.8 4.3 --

Refrigerators and staves - 0.6 1.7 3.4 7.2 7.8 7.8 12.7 16.9 -- --

Other 9.6 13.6 10.6 8.7 7.8 8.6 10.8 15.2 17.6 --

Source: Statiatical Bureau.

January/February 198S

- 93 -

Table 53.3 GUYANA - MERCAIIND ISE I1PORTS CCI F) BY END-USE CATEGORY

(110 mllilln)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1961 1982 1983 1984

Conumer Goods 47.9 55.9 64.8 56.1 51.3 57.8 S3.0 57.2 36.0 25.0 14.4

Foodstuffs 19.8 20.6 22.3 26.5 24.5 24.4 24.4 23.0 9.5 6.3 2.6

Clothing and Footwear 4.7 6.4 7.5 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 5.8 5.4 2.8

Ourables 6.6 7.0 10.6 55 3.7 5.0 6.3 8.5 8.1 4.7

Other 16.6 21.9 24.4 18.1 18$ 23.6 15.6 39.7 13.0 11.2 ..

Intermediate Goods 139.3 175.8 176.5 161.0 165.1 200.7 266.8 302.6 194.9 173.3 169.9

Foodstuffs 18.3 22.0 26.8 20.0 19.1 25.1 23.1 23.4 10.9 4.3 4.7

Fuls and Lubricants 46.2 57.3 53.9 62.9 66.7 90.3 141.2 149.2 109.0 96.6 101.9

CbmIcals 17.0 19.7 18.2 15.2 16.7 15.3 14.3 22.0 18.0 16.7 15.7

Textiles 11.8 13.5 16.8 10.7 10.8 11.5 11.7 13.3 4.7 4.5 2.6

Other 46.0 63.3 60.8 52.2 51.8 58.5 76.5 94.7 32.3 51.2 45.0

Capltal Goods 65.7 110.6 118.8 88.6 60.2 57.2 75.5 76.8 4.9 48.0 36.6

Building Materials 21.1 30.6 36.0 20.6 17.7 20.3 12.7 20.7 12.0 12.8 5.2

Mining/Transport Equlpment 20.8 40.3 37.4 37.7 13.6 16.1 21.9 24.3 9.2 10.4 1.6

Agricultural Machinery 3.4 11.1 4.0 1.0 1.1 2.2 7.8 7.3 3.5 0.8 7.8

Other 20.4 28.6 41.4 29.5 27.6 18.6 33.0 24.5 22.1 24.0 21.6

Miscellaneous 1.5 1.8 3.5 9.5 2.3 2.0 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.0 1.3

Total Merchandise Imports 2S4.4 344.1 363.6 315.4 278.9 317.7 396.1 439.6 280.4 248.3 222.2

Sources Statistical Bureau.

January/February I:9S

- 94 -

Table 3.4: OUTANA - VALUE, VOLUME AND UNIT VALUE

OF PRINCIPAL FUEL IMPORTS

(Value In mililnes of O0yana dollers; volume In millions of Imperial

gallons; and unit value In Guyana dellrs per Imperial gallon a/

Prol.

1977 197I 1979 1910 1961 1952 1953 1994

Total value of fuel

Imports, eif 160.4 170.0 230.0 345.4 415.9 327.0 290.0 390.0

Gasoline

VIue 13.6 13.3 25.5 36.4 44.0 46.4 44.9 51.6

VoIum. 11.8 11.0 12.1 12.6 13.3 13.5 14.3 13.1

Unit value I.IS 1.21 2.10 2.89 3.31 3.44 3.14 3.9

Kerosene

Valu 6.7 7.3 13.5 16.4 22.9 20.1 23.3 29.1

Volumb 5.7 6.1 6.5 5.7 6.6 7.8 7.2 7.3

Unit value 1.16 1.20 2.06 3.22 3.37 3.62 3.24 4.0

gas Oll/Dlesma Oil

Value 43.5 41.8 64.1 114.4 127.9 97.0 55.6 103.7

Volume 35.5 35.0 35.7 40.3 39.0 28.4 27.9 25.9

Unit value 1.10 1.19 1.81 2.84 3.28 3.42 3.1 4.0

Butane and Propane

Volue - 1.6 4.1 7.7 9.1 9.5 9.2 0.7

Volume bt - 6.3 10.5 13.2 15.2 14.5 14.2 11.7

Unit value - 0.25 0.39 0.57 0.60 0.66 0.65 0.7

Aviation Fuel

value - 0.9 1.9 2.1 3.3 2.6 2.6 2.8

Volume - 0.S 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4

Unit value - 1.61 3.80 4.20 5.50 6.50 5.49 7.0

Bunker IC

Value 80.3 87.6 84.9 134.9 169.4 117.8 99.1 162.9

Volume 88.0 104.2 72.1 75.9 73.1 54.5 42.7 53.2

Unit value 0.91 0.84 1.18 1.78 2.32 2.16 2.32 3.1

Cetaen 47

Value - - 11.6 17.2 12.1 7.0 6.7

Volume - - 6.0 5.S 3.6 2.0 2.2

Unit value - - 1.95 2.97 3.35 3.48 3.05

Otber

Volue c/ 16.0 17.5 23.7 14.3 28.2 18.6 18.6 32.2

of One barrel of petroleum Is equIvelent to 34.973 ImperIal gallons.

bi In millions of pounds.

ct Incildes lubricating grease and olls, and white spirit.

Sources Statistical Bureau.

January/February 1985

- 95 -

Table 3*3a WNIA - OIIECTIIN I FRIEIII I10

CU mlice.)

Jon.-Sept.1973 1974 I5 1916 1977 1978 37 10D 1611 I1112 1363

Total Exporta F..SJ a/ IS5.4 270.2 364.4 .2 219.3 23. 211IJ 36. 344 2622 13.2

UnIted Klngin 40 55.a 35.2 04.5 N6a 573 3.2 973 S 03 74:3 23.0

CARICNO 21 as .5 41.5 3.1 40.3 45. 44Me 555 3.2 4.4 21:1United States 2.6 73A 73.7 55.1 46.7 61.4 5S.6 923 75.1 34 21JACrndo 6.3 14.0 12.4 73 13.0 MA 3m.0 21.4 17.3 193 4.9EC (excluding LO 11.2 IS.7 NA 33., 22D0 323 24 3X. 39 N.J 2J 133

EFTA 1.9 14.6 5.7 9.6 16.7 18.f 5.0 11.3 4.1 7.5 1.6

Jxpu 5.4 6S 63 S.l6 10.0 8.2 11.0 IID 10. 933 IO

Spain 13 135 2.4 33 3.9 3.4 4.0 66 5.4 435 15US3 8.2 3*. 27A - 1.5 2.5 - 4.0 03 -

Penles Republic of Chin 1.0 9.4 4.1 2.4 0.1 - 1.1 004 - -

Reut of abrid .1 44.2 !.1 33J 19.1 14.9 31.6 43.4 411.0 173 14J

Total Iaprt. (C.fJ.) 175.1 254.4 344.1 36.6 315.4 276.9 317.7 96.1 43J 230A4 185.8

United Klngdo 45.0 52.0 65.2 63.7 64J 61.1 5.91 63. 6939 32J 23,2

CARICM 3.1 673 61.3 Al o 03.9 80.6 1045 149J1 154.4 1233 63.2United Sbttu 42J 65.5 33.2 103.5 543 62.3 60.6 92.9 103l1 SD 413

Carb 9.4 12C 13. 5.2 11.6 113 10.4 21.4 17.0 11.4 5.4

EEC (excluding t1O 16. 25.1 27.3 245 29.9 233 24.6 185 27a8 21.0 19.1

EFrA 2.5 3.5 3.5 S.6 4.7 4 4.3 7.9 Sao 2.1 0

Japan 59 83 133 16.2 105 83 7.5 66 8.0 6J 2.6

SpeIn 1.0 0.4 0.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 01 0.0USsR - - - - O0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.1

Peoples R pablk of Oinm 1.0 3.4 3.5 73 2.2 4.1 3.2 13 0.7 03 0.2

Rest of World 9d 153 53.0 24.6 25.6 22.4 229 76 46.5 52 M.2

w Inclues r .xports.

Smurces Statletial BImau.

Janumy,Februery 1965

- 96 -

Table 3.6& OUYANA - TRADE WITH CARICON

JOn.-Sept.1974 1975 i976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1151 1962 1913

Exports, FOB 8/ 57.9 105.9 106.7 102.8 116.1 114.3 316.5 166.6 139.2 64.0

By Country

Trlnidad *nd Tobage 22.9 33.5 43.8 39.6 52.2 45.2 62.7 03.7 86.6 47.0Jamalic 27.6 50.7 39.2 36.6 38.0 44.7 44.5 54.0 12.7 5.4

Barbedos t.6 11.0 12.3 13.9 10.9 10.5 9.0 13.3 12.7 5.7

Other 8.4 10.7 11.4 12.7 14.2 13.3 20.3 15.6 27.2 S.l

Sy Product

Food 50.0 80.4 70.3 69.2 84.6 76.3 99.8 116.5 65.8

Of which: Rice (47.3) (76.7) (73.2) (66.4) C81.8) (74.01 (84.4) (102.6) (59.6) (34.9)

Nalasmee (1.7) (2.2) (3.1) (0.2) (0.4) (0.6) (8.0 (8.9) (4.03 ..

Clothing and Footwear 4.7 5.7 11.9 8.7 4.6 4.8 6.6 5.5 5.2Other 13.2 19.8 16.5 24.9 26.9 33.2 30.1 44.6 68.2

Imports. CIF 150.0 173.2 206.5 206.4 205.6 267.0 380.2 434.3 369.9 207.7

By CountryTrinidad and Tobago 128.3 145.5 175.3 183.9 189.7 245.4 363.9 415.3 352.2 189.3

Jamaica 15.0 19.0 22.3 16.5 8.7 17.1 10.9 14.8 13.1 12.7Barbados 3.6 3.6 6.3 3.7 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.8 0.1 1.6

Other 3.1 5.1 2.6 2.3 3.7 1.8 2.8 1.4 4.5 3.9

By Product

Cas o1ine. Kerosene,

and other Fuel 99.6 110.2 128.4 160.4 155.1 217.2 205.9 380.6 327.6 172.8Aeonla Sulphate 4.0 5.3 5.4 4.0 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.8 12.5Cement 0.6 1.5 0.2 - - - - - 0.3

Other 45.6 56.2 72.5 41.2 41.7 44.5 169.5 48.9 29.5 34.9

Trade Balance -82.1 -67.3 -99.8 -103.6 -91.8 152.7 -243.7 -267.7 -230.7 -143.7

B) country;rInIded and Tobago -I'S.4 -112.0 -131.5 -144.3 -137.S 200.2 -301.2 -331.6 -265.6 -141.5Jamaica 12.5 31.7 16.9 20.1 29.8 27.6 33.6 39.2 -0.4 -7.3

Barbados 5.2 7.4 6.0 10.2 7.4 7.8 6.4 10.5 12.6 4.0

Other 5.6 5.6 0.8 10.4 8.2 12.1 17.5 14.2 22.7 1.1

el Excludes re-exports and traneshipisnte of bauxite and mol|ases.

Sources Statlitical Bureau.

January/February 1985

- 97 -

Table 3.7: GUYANA - TRADE VOLUMES. UNIT VALUES AND TERMS OF TRADE

C 1977-100)

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 198Z 1983 1984

Ia USs a/

Export PrIce Index 91.6 100.0 103.0 113.3 145.9 137.9 128.3 117.4 122.4

Import Price Index 91.2 100.0 111.6 133.2 158.5 159.6 157.1 162.1 165.0

Commodity Terms of Trade 100.4 100.0 92.3 35.1 92.1 56.4 51.7 72.4 74.2

Export Earning Index 107.6 100.0 114.0 112.8 150.0 132.8 93.4 74.5 77.6

Ineoe Terms of Trade 118.0 100.0 102.2 84.7 94.6 83.2 59.5 46.0 47.0

in _

Export Price Index 91.6 100.0 102.0 116.7 142.4 151.9 148.1 136.4 183.6

Import Price Index 90.7 100.0 110.9 122.2 152.5 194.1 219.0 216.3 247.6

Commodity Terms of Trade C 1 101.0 100.0 92.0 95.5 93.4 78.3 67.6 62.5 74.2

Export Earaing Index 107.6 100.0 114.0 112.8 150.0 146.5 109.9 87.7 116.4

Ince- Terms of Trade C/ 118.6 100.0 102.8 92.3 98.4 75.5 50.2 40.2 47.0

*i MIssion estimates, see Attachments I and It to thls table.

b/ Statistical bureau; mlssion estlmte. for 1954.

c/ The differences In the commodity and Income terms of trade expressed In US* and OS are accounted for

by differences l commodity disaggregation and assumptions mde regarding unit prices.

Sourcez Misslon estimates.

January/February 1985

- 98 -

Attachmeet I

Table 3.7

GUTANA - EXPORTS

Pr.l.

1976 1977 1978 1979 I0SO 1351 1952 1983 1914

CURRENT PRICES

Paux it Sector 113.1 129.9 130.3 123.4 138.0 152.7 104.4 73.3 90.4

Dried iNt.l 13.2 11.2 19.1 21.6 24.5 27.8 23.8 Z2.7 24.3

calcined 74.7 52.9 79.3 85.7 113.5 92.3 68.6 48.3 66.1

Al_1e 25.2 30.J 31.9 21.1 43.7 32.7 12.0 2.3 -

Other 16S.8 129.4 165.2 164.1 201.0 191.7 137.8 120.0 110.1

Sugar 101.5 72.8 92.0 90.4 121.0 to0.5 87.7 19.3 58.5

RIcO 28.s 26.2 37.6 31.7 34.0 39.1 20.2 21.7 20.9

Other 35.4 30.4 35.6 42.0 46.0 43.8 23.9 29.0 31.1

TotaI CGood 27a.9 259.3 235.5 292.5 389.0 344.4 242.2 193.3 201.2

Neu Factor Services 15.5 19.5 18.1 18.4 19.6 20.9 21.5 31.7 29.3

Total good& & NFS 294.4 276.5 313.6 311.0 405.6 373.3 264.0 225.0 230.5

PRICE INDEX (1977 - 1001

Bauxite S*ctor 64.1 100.0 131.1 127.9 112.3 162.1 163.3 139.6 137.0

Dried Hotel 67.4 100.0 304.4 116.8 134.1 IS2.4 118.0 165.8 173.0

Calclned a5.2 100.0 114.6 132.0 114.7 157.9 1S7.0 130.7 127.1

Aluml 8a 1.3 100.0 110.0 124.1 164.9 18S.6 159.7 69.7 -

Otber 97.1 100.0 96.9 104.1 133.2 123.2 110.4 107.0 112.6

Suger 97.4 100.0 93.4 97.9 138.7 117.2 :00.0 94.1 202.8

Rlca 102.3 100.0 90.3 95.2 105.6 128.2 148.4 132.7 I2S15

othor a* 92.5 100.0 117.6 130.8 141.7 135.7 133.4 129.4 133.3

Total Coeds 91.S 100.0 103.0 113.3 145.9 137.9 128.3 117.4 122.4Moe Factar Service a 92. 0 0.0 117.6 135.8 141.7 135.7 133.4 129.4 133.3

Total goods * NFS S1.7 200.0 103.7 114.6 145.7 137.7 128.7 119.0 123.7

CONSTANT 1977 PRICES

Bauxite Secter 133.6 22.9 111.5 100.4 115.2 94.2 64.0 52.5 61.0

Drled motel 15.1 11.2 18.3 18.5 38.3 18.2 12.6 12.2 14.0

Ca-cIued 87.5 62.9 19.2 64.9 71.0 58.5 43.9 37.0 52.0

Al_ima 31.0 30.8 29.0 17.0 26.5 17.5 7.5 3.3 -

Othr 170 129.4 170.4 157.7 150.9 IS5.6 124.5 112.1 98.4

Sugar 104.2 72.8 95.5 92.3 87.2 92.8 8.7 73.3 S7.2

RIcO 28.3 26.2 41.6 33.3 31.3 30.5 13.7 11.4 25.0

Other 38.3 30.4 30.3 32.1 32.4 32.3 22.4 22.4 23.2

Total Coods 304.4 259.3 286.9 258.1 216.2 249.8 258.8 364.S 164.4

Moo Factor Services 11.8 19.5 15.4 13.3 13.8 21.3 16.3 24.5 21.9

Total Cgeod 9 NFS 321.2 z75.8 302.3 272.4 20 .5 271.1 205.1 189.1 181.3

a/ MUi lmd-x.

Sources Based em Tables 3.1 and 7.1, mlsale eatim*-te..

Jammsry/F.bruory 1955

- 99 -

Attacbment II

Table 3.7

GUYANA - IMPORTS ST MAIN CATEGORIES

CUSS miIlIon)

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

CURRENT PRICES

Fuel and Lubricants 53.9 62.9 66.7 90.3 141.2 149.2 109.0 96.6 101.9

Capital Goods 115.8 88.6 60.2 57.2 76.3 77.0 46.9 48.0 36.6

Other 191.0 163.7 152.0 170.2 178.5 213.4 124.5 103.7 63.7

TotaI Goods 363.7 315.4 278.9 317.7 396.0 439.6 280.4 248.3 222.2

NMn-Factor Services 41.7 32.0 34.8 42.3 74.6 44.7 65.3 76.0 78.9

Total goods & NFS 405.4 347.5 313.7 360.0 470.6 484.3 345.7 324.3 301.1

PRICE INDEX (1977 a 100)

Fuet and Lubricants a/ 84.5 100.0 96.1 139.6 201.8 242.5 232.1 23t.6 226.8

Other llnel. Capital Goodseb/ 92.5 100.0 117.6 130.5 141.7 135.7 133.4 129.4 133.9

Total goods 91.2 100.0 111.6 133.2 158.5 159.6 157.1 162.t 165.0

Non-Factor Services b/ 92.5 100.0 117.6 130.8 141.7 135.7 133.4 129.4 133.9

Total Goods & NFS 91.3 100.0 112.2 132.9 155.6 157.0 152.0 153.0 155.5

CONSTANT 1977 PRICES

Fuel and Lubricsnts 63.8 62.9 69.4 64.7 70.0 51.5 50.0 41.7 44.9

Capital Goods 128.4 88.5 51.2 43.7 53.8 56.7 35.2 37.1 27-3

Other 206.S 163.7 129.3 130.1 126.0 157.3 93.3 74.4 62.S

Total Goods 398.7 315.4 249.9 238.5 249.8 275.5 178.S 153.2 134.7

Non-Factor Services 45.1 32.0 29.6 32.3 52.6 32.9 49.0 58.7 58.9

Total goods & NFS 443.8 347.4 279.5 270.8 302.4 308.4 227.S 211.9 193.6

a/ Curacao fuel price Index C1976-81), International oil price Index (1982). end unit price for local

Imports for 1983-84 (see Table 3.4).

b/ Index of International USS Inflation (MUV).

Sources Based on Tables 3.1. 3.3 and 3.4; mission estlmtoe.

January/February 1985.

Page 1 of 2Table 4.1 - GUYANA

FXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1984DEST REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S T A N D0I N G I N A R RE A R STYPE OF CREDITOR

CREDITOQ COUNTRY IOSSURSED :UNDISBUPSED: TOTAL PRINCIPAL INTEREST

SUPPLIERS CREDITSDENMARK 1,953 * 1,953 773 293INDIA 174 - 174 135 28JAPAN 794 794 794NETHERLANDS 3.087 - 3.087 1.811 499UNITED KINGDOM 7,931 - 7,931 5.714 1.220UNITED STATES 358 - 358 274 28

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 14,297 - 14.297 9,501 2.0f8

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSAUSTRIA 212 212BAHAMAS @|BAHADA S 111 1,1111 1.111 149CANADA 2,646 - 2,646 2,646 203NETHERLANOS 1,707 - 1,707 6SWIT2ERlANDO 8,500 - 8,500 8,500UNITED KINGDOM 26,402 - 26,402 18,056 7.39.4UNITED STATES 4,624 - 4.624 1.365 436 oMULTIPLE LENDERS 60.789 - 60.789 32.095 * 0

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 105,991 - 105,991 64,273 8,194

BONDSUNITED KINGDOM 4,603 * 4,603 - 659

TOTAL BONDS 4,603 - 4,003 -59

NATIONALIZATIONCANADA 33,079 33.079 -

UNITED KINGDOM 5,762 - 5,702 - -UNITED STATES 2,848 2,848

TOTAL NATIONALIZATION 41,689 41,G89 - -

MULTILATERAL LOANSCARIBBEAN DEV. BANK 32,825 4,305 37,130 114 4,067EEC 3,000 3,000 -

EUROPEAN DEV.FUND 4,715 121 4,836 - 9EUROPEAN INVFST BANK 872 872 - -

IBRD 65,068 3,023 68,091 - -IDA 25,056 11,045 36,101 -1DB 84,308 64,734 149,042 - -

IMF rRUST FUND 11,033 - 11,033 -OPEC SPECIAL FUND 19,301 3,000 22.301 *

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 246,178 86,228 332,406 114 4,076

BILATERAL LOANSBRAZIL 10,740 8,070 18,810 7,556 2,017

Page 2 of 2Table 4.1 - GUYANA

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1984DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S T A N D I N G I N A R R E A R STYPE OF CREDITOR .... ..CREDITOR COUNTRY DISBURSED :UNDISBURSED: TOTAI. PRINCIPAL INrEREST

CANADA 36,352 18,097 54,449 1,716 476CHINA 4,882 6,683 11,565 -GERMAN DEM. REP. 14,792 - 14,792GERMANY, FED.REP. OF 533 - 531 -KOREA, D.P.R. OF 383 - 333 -LIBYA 5,000 - 5,000 1,666 458NETHERLANDS 2,740 - 2,740 711 273TRINIDAD S TOBAGO 70,938 - 70.938UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 2,893 - 2,893 1,804 312UNITED KINGDOM 32,789 4,503 37,292 9.137 4.553UNITED STATES 65,260 22,188 87,448 5.897 5,028USSR 940 - 940 940VENE2UELA 20,406 20.406 3.501 179YUGOSLAVIA 1,130 - 1,130 1,130 133

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 269,728 59.541 329,269 3'1,058 13,429-- , .....---------------............------......................-....-................... .......................... .................. .... . ................... .................. ... . ....... . ... .

lOTAL EXIERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 682,486 145,769 828,255 107.946 28,426

NOTES: (1) ONLY DEBTS WITH AN ORIGINAL OR EXTENDED MATURITY OF OVER ONE YEAR ARE INCLUDED IN THIlS TABLE.(2) DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDES PRINCIPAL IN ARREARS BUT EXCLUDES INTEREST IN AnREARS.

Page 1 of 7Table 4.2 - GUYANA

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBtJRSFD AS OF DEC. 31. 19F4DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN TH1OUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TOTAL

YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT r R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OIHER CHANGES-BEGINNING OF PERIOD

D OISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS -----------:-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) : 8) (9)

1980 507.116 737,199 75.776 94.996 42.792 26.706 69.498 1.510 7.7731981 566,189 776,446 201,082 167.026 43,043 36,061 79.104 3.060 -40.7761982 659,930 890,649 27.730 77,435 23,048 24,120 47,168 20.011 -18,8271983 681.586 856,493 1t,589 46.090 21.060 24,124 45.184 1.020 -17.8681984 692.547 828.134 43.700 26.453 14.837 16.172 31.009 2.466 -26.2721985 682,486 828.259

* * * * t * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED . * * t *

1985 682,486 828,259 - 74.920 59.324 24.037 83,361 -108,4701986 589,616 660,465 - 22.160 52,735 21,20G 73.941 - 21987 559,043 607.732 - 18,507 48,169 18.700 6G.8i9 - I1988 529.380 559,564 - 13,209 41,291 16,857 58.148 - 6 01989 501.304 518.279 - 7.728 38.615 15.914 54,529 - 11990 470,415 479,663 - 4,987 40,862 15,096 55.958 - -I1991 434,539 438,800 - 2,989 37.735 13,853 51,588 - 41992 399,797 401.069 - 1,112 35.284 12,731 48.015 - -21993 365,623 365.783 - 160 34,098 11.333 45.431 - -11994 331,684 331,684 - - 33,241 9,971 43,212 71995 298,450 298.450 - - 32,959 8,635 41,594 - 21996 265.493 265.493 - - 32,811 7.284 40,095 - 51997 232,687 232,687 - - 21,956 5.97a 27,934 -1998 210,732 210,732 - - 20,829 4,945 25,774 -1999 189,904 189,904 - - 17.474 3.959 21.433 - 32000 172,433 172,433 - - 14,573 3,305 17,878 -I2001 157,861 157,861 - - 12,117 2,805 14,922 - 42002 ¶45.748 145.748 - - 11.184 2,388 13,572 - 42003 134,568 134,568 - - 11.036 2,043 13,079 - -22004 123,530 123,530 - - 9,689 1.695 11,384 - 2

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Page 2 of 7Table 4.2 - GUYANA

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1984DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS

TOTALYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSEO: MENTS MENTS -----------:-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: ) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (93

980 25,338 25,891 10,221 6,324 6.455 2,248 8.703 - 1.2251981 26.301 30,882 5,620 4,351 5,514 1.943 7,457 2.349 -5.0811982 20,759 23,558 - 1,218 1,339 468 1.807 - -2.6031983 18,279 19.616 - 1,218 666 953 1.619 20 -1.8291984 17,101 17,101 - - 245 159 404 - -2.5591985 14,297 14,297

* * * * ' THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * t * t * *

1985 14,297 14,297 - - 2.378 337 2,715 - -9.5401986 2,379 2,379 - - 1,297 165 1,462 - 21987 1.084 1,084 - - 731 71 802 - -f958 353 353 - - 235 25 260 - - W1999 19 118 - ' 118 5 123 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN rTIE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Page 3 of 7Table 4.2 - GUYANA

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1984DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

TOTALYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I G D OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ----------- -----------:----------- LATIONS MENT

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (l) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9

1980 107,566 113.723 25,845 24,068 12,064 9,756 21.820 II -1341981 119,775 127,359 17,008 7.563 14.955 14,186 29,141 - -3.2931982 110,584 126,119 600 10.319 5.983 12.652 18.635 - -3.0441983 113,339 117,692 - 2,426 3.061 6,162 9.223 - -2.1401984 l10.900 112.49 - 1,362 3,494 6.636 10,130 - -.,0061985 105,991 105,991

' * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * . . . *

1985 105,991 105.991 - - 17,028 4,839 21.867 - 64,273 119R6 24,690 24,690 - - 12,489 2,656 15,145 - *2 -1987 12,199 12,199 - - 7,920 1,252 9,172 - - 01989 4,279 4,279 - - 3,452 288 3.740 -1989 827 827 - - 648 42 690 - -

1990 179 179 - - 9 5 14 - -1991 170 170 - - 9 5 14 - -

1992 161 161 - - 9 5 14 - -

1993 152 152 - - 9 5 14 - -

1994 143 143 - - 9 4 13 - -

1995 134 134 - - 9 4 13 - -

1996 125 125 - - 9 4 13 - -

1997 116 116 - - 9 3 12 - -

1998 107 107 - - 9 3 12 -

1999 99 99 - - 9 3 12 - -

2000 90 90 - - 9 3 12 - -

2001 8 8 - - 9 2 11 - -

2002 72 72 - - 9 2 11 - -

2003 63 63 - - 9 2 11 - -

2004 54 54 - - 9 2 1 - -

. THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARIT11METIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Page 4 of 7Table 4.2 - GUYANA

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1984DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BONDS

TOTALYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D : OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD:

: DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- : ADOtJST-* ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS ---------- -: - ----- LATIONS : MENT

PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL* (1) : (2) : (3) : (4) : (5) : (6) : (7) : (8) (9)

1980 13,499 13,499 - - - 591 591 - 978

1981 14,477 14,477 - - 4,238 515 4,753 - -2.646

1982 7,593 7,593 - - - 2 2 - 11G67

1983 6.426 6,426 - - - 3 3 - -652

1994 5,774 5.774 - - - I - -1.171

1985 4,603 4,603

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * ' * * I

1985 4,603 4,603 - 4,603 122 4.725 --

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT O3UTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE

YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Page 5 of 7Table 4.2 - GUYANA

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXrERNAL PUBLIC DEST

PROJECTIONS BASEO ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1984DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR NATIONALIZATION

TOTALYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS -----------:-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)

1980 68,764 68,764 - - 6.447 2.721 9.168 - 1.46tl9B1 63,778 63,778 - - 2.206 8,221 10.427 - -6.208t982 55.364 55,364 - - 6.787 4.165 10.952 - 4.3701983 52,947 52,947 - 8.843 7,556 16,399 - -i.1031984 43.001 43,001 - - 2,939 1.598 4,537 - 1.6271985 41.689 41,689

* * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * e * .

1985 41.689 41,689 - ' 4.379 593 4.972 -1986 37,310 37,310 - - 4,237 467 4.704 - 21987 33,075 33,075 - - 4,111 353 4.464 - a1988 28,964 28.964 - - 3.219 249 3.468 - I1989 25,746 25,746 - - 3,219 222 3.441 - I1990 22,528 22,528 - - 3,219 194 3,413 - 11991 19,310 19,310 - - 3,219 166 3,385 -1992 16,091 16,091 - - 3,219 139 3,358 - 11993 12,873 12.873 - 3,219 111 3.330 -1

1994 9.655 9,655 - - 3.219 83 3.302 - -1995 6,436 6.436 - 3.219 55 3.274 - 21996 3,219 3,219 - - 3.219 28 3,247 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Page 6 of 7Table 4.2 - GUYANA

SERVICE PAVMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PU[LIC DIEl

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1984DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS

TOTALYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I D . OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ----------- ----- -- ----------- I.ATIONS MENT

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1980 70.646 201,314 22.167 38,369 874 4,054 4.928 21 -1.2311981 108.008 221,355 89,913 67,186 1,045 4.462 5,507 237 -2.4381982 173,490 307,548 2.319 34,707 1,035 4,871 5.906 11 -2,1931983 205,512 306,628 148 33.241 1,979 7,484 9.463 1.000 -3.6881984 234,463 300,109 43,700 20.411 4.491 6.474 10.965 2,466 -4.4451985 246,178 332,407

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * e * e

1985 246,178 332,407 - 33.175 10,392 10,800 21,192 - -1151986 260,846 321,900 - 15.CO5 13,628 11.063 24.691 - -31987 270,221 303.269 - 13.009 14,841 11,046 25.887 - I o1988 268,390 293,429 - 9,813 16,724 11,108 27,832 - -1989 261.477 276.705 - 6,826 18.789 10,940 29.729 - -1990 249,515 257,916 - 4,549 19,091 10,368 29.459 - -11991 234,972 238,824 - 2,732 15,900 9,670 25,570 - 21992 221.805 222,926 - 961 15,944 9.096 25.040 - -21993 206.820 206,980 - 160 15.224 8,182 23,406 - -1994 191.756 191,756 - - 14.828 7,282 22,110 - 21995 176.930 176,930 - - 14,928 6,401 21,329 - -1996 162,002 162,002 - - 14.62.6 5.506 20,132 - 21997 147.378 147,378 - - 14.2i2 4,661 18,933 - -31998 133,103 133,103 - - 13.254 3.836 17.090 - 31999 119.852 119,852 - - 10.324 3,056 13,380 - 32000 109,531 109,531 - - 8,395 2,580 10,975 - -12001 10.1,1v5 101,135 - - 7,660 2,209 9.869 - 12002 93,476 93,476 - - 6,727 1.887 8.614 - -2003 86,749 8G.749 - - 6,859 1,632 8.491 - -12004 79,889 79,889 - - 6,265 1,357 7.622 - 2

4 THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISEURSED FRCM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Page 7 of 7Table 4.2 - GUYANA

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, OIS4URSEMENrS AND OUTSIANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEr.r

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1984DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOIJSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS

TOTALYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER CHAtIGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- :----------- LATIONS MENT '

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1l) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (71 l8) (9)

1980 221,303 314,008 17,543 26.235 16.952 7,336 24.288 1.478 5.4741981 233,850 318595 88,541 87,926 15.085 6.734 21.819 474 -21.1101982 292,140 370.467 24,81t 31,191 7.904 1.962 9,866 20.000 -14.1901983 285.083 353.184 11.441 9.205 6,511 1,966 8,477 - -8.4561984 281,308 349 658 - 4,680 3.668 1,304 4,972 - -16,7181985 269,728 329,272

6 ' * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * . w . *

1985 269,728 329,272 - 41,745 20.544 7,346 27,890 - -34.5421986 256.391 274.186 - 7.195 21.084 6.855 27.939 31987 242,464 253,105 - 5,498 20.566 5,978 26.544 - -1988 227.394 232,539 - 3,396 17.661 5,187 22.848 - 5 co1989 213,136 214.883 - 902 15,841 4,705 20.546 - -21990 198,193 199,040 - 438 18.543 4.529 23.072 - -11991 180,087 180,496 - 257 18.607 4.012 22.619 - 21992 161,740 161,891 - 151 16.112 3,491 19,603 - -11993 145,778 145,778 - - 15.646 3,035 18.681 - -21994 130,130 130.130 - - 15,185 2.602 17.787 - 51995 114,950 114.950 - - 14.803 2.175 16.978 -1996 100,147 100,147 - - 14,957 1.746 16.703 - 31997 85,193 85,193 - - 7,675 1,314 8.989 - 41998 77,522 77,522 - - 7,566 1.106 8,672 - -31999 69,953 69,953 - - 7,141 900 8,041 - -2000 62,812 62,812 - - 6.169 722 6.891 - 22001 56,645 56,645 - - 4.448 594 5.042 - 32002 52,200 52.200 - - 4,448 499 4.947 - 42003 47,756 47,756 - - 4,168 409 4,577 - -12004 43,587 43,587 - - 3,415 336 3.751 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALAIJCE IN THE AMOUNT OUISTANDING INCLUDING UtDISBURSEO FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

Page 1 of 10Table 4.3 - GUYANA

STRUCTURE AND TERMS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTCOMMITMENTS JAN. 1, 1970 - DEC. 31. 1984 *DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. OOLLARS)AVERAGE TERMS

PERIOD ENDING ----------------------------------------------------------TYPE OF CREDITOR INTEREST MATURITY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL***CREDITOR COUNTRY AMOUNT** () (YRS) (YRS) ELEMENT(X) EOUIVALENT AMOUNT

__- - . . _ --- -- -- _ . . -- . - - ........ . ........... --- --- -- - -- - - - -- - -- - -------- __________

7012MULTILATERAL LOANS

IDA 2,200 0.750 49.9 10.4 83.3 1.833 2.200TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 2.200 0.750 49.9 10.4 83.3 1.833 2.200

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 2.866 - 49.5 9.8 a9.7 2.570 2.866UNITED KINGDOM 12.672 8.021 16.B 9.7 12.3 1,627 12.672UNITED STATES 289 2.777 20.6 2.6 44.7 129 289

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 15.827 6.473 22.8 9.6 27.3 4.326 15.827TOTAL 7012 18,027 5.774 26.1 9.7 34.2 6,159 18,027

7112NATIONALIZATION

CANADA 40,633 6.000 20.4 1.4 23.6 9.589 40.633TOTAL NAT'IONALIZATION 40t,L33 6.000 20.4 1.4 23.6 9.589 40.633

MULTILATERAL LOANSIRRO 5.400 7.250 24.7 5.2 18.5 999 5,400

TOTAI. MULTILATERAL LOANS 5,400 7.250 24.7 5.2 18.5 999 5.400

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 2.293 - 50.5 10.0 90.1 2,066 2.293UNITED STATES 8,900 2.610 40.9 10.9 64.6 5.749 8.900

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 11.193 2.075 42.9 10.7 69.8 7.815 11.193TOTAL 7112 57.226 5.350 25.2 3.6 32.2 18.404 57.226

7212MULTILATERAL LOANS

IDA 4,400 0.750 50.0 10.5 83.4 3.670 4.400TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 4,400 0.750 50.0 10.5 83.4 3,670 4.400

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 439 .I - 49.8 10.3 90.2 396 439CHINA 25,018 - 19.3 13.3 78.5 19.639 25,018UNITED KINGDOM 3.192 3.409 18.9 4.6 42.8 1.367 3.192

e INCLUDES INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD TO DEBTS WITH ORIGINAL COMMITMENT DATES FROM JAN. 1. 1900 TO DEC. 31, 1984.* TOTAL LOANS HAVING INTEREST, GRACE PERIOW AND MATURITY INFORI'ATION AVAILABLE. USED TO COMPUTE AVERAGE TERMS.

a.' TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN THIS BREAKDOWN REGARDLESS OF AVAILABILITY OF INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD. AND MATURITY INFORMATION.

Page 2 of 10Table 4.3 - GUYANA

STRUCTURE AND TERMS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTCOMMITMENTS JAN. 1. 1970 - DEC. 31. 1984 *DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)AVERAGE TERMS

PERIOD ENDING -----------------------------------------------------R---GTYPE OF CREOITOR INTEREST MATURIlY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL-CREDITOR COUNTRY AMOUNT** (X} (VRS) (YRS) ELEMENT(%) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT

__ - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - -- - - - -- -- - ........ _._. .. . -- - - - -- - -- -_-___ ___ _-___ __

UNITED STATES 5,584 2.476 39.9 10.3 64.8 3.621 5.584TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 34.233 0.722 23.0 11.9 73.1 25.023 34.233

TOTAL 7212 38.633 0.725 26.1 11.8 74.3 28.692 38,633

7312SUPPLIERS CREDITSUNITED KINGDOM 2,425 6.000 7.2 1.2 12.3 298 2.425

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 2,425 6.000 7.2 1.2 12.3 298 2.425

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSUNITED KINGOOM 1.845 13.750 9.2 6.2 -21.1 -389 1.845MULTIPLE LENDERS 12.500 10.685 8.1 1.1 -3.2 -400 12,500

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 14,345 11.079 8.2 1.7 -6.5 -789 14.345

MULTILATERAL LOANSIBRD 6,000 7.250 19.9 4.4 16.9 1.014 6.000

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 6,000 7.250 19.9 4.4 16.9 1.014 6.000

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 3.999 - 50.7 10.2 90.3 3.611 3.999UNITED KINGDOM 7.602 3.000 23.3 4.3 47.9 3,641 7.602UNITED STATES 1.845 6.000 8.9 5.9 19.4 358 1.845

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 13.446 2.519 29.5 6.3 56.6 7.610 13.446TOTAL 7312 36.216 6.927 18.0 3.8 22.5 3.133 36.216

7412SUPPLIERS CREDITS

FRANCE 725 8.000 5.3 0.8 4.4 32 725TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 725 8.000 5.3 0.8 4.4 32 725

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSUNITED KINGDOM 702 6.000 5.4 0.9 9.8 69 702UNITED STATES 6.966 12.683 5.4 2.3 -8.9 -623 6.966MULTIPLE LENDERS 15.000 12.635 7.2 3.2 -11.5 -1.725 15.000

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 22.668 12.477 6.6 2.8 -10.1 -2,279 22.668

* INCLUDES INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD TO DEBTS WITH ORIGINAL COMMITMENT DATES FROM JAN. 1. 1900 TO DEC. 31. 1984.'. TOTAL LOANS HAVING INTEREST. GRACE PERIOD AND MATURITY INFORMATION AVAILABLE. USED TO COMPUTE AVERAGE TERMS.

... TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN THIS BREAKDOWN'REGARDLESS OF AVAILABILITY OF INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD. AND MATURITY INFORMATION.

Page 3 of 10Table 4.3 - GUYANA

STRUCTURE AND TERMS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTCOMMITMENTS JAN. 1, 1970 D DEC. 31, 1984 *DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)AVERAGE TERMS

PERIOD ENDING ..........................................................TYPE OF CREDITOR INTEREST MATURITY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL*40CREDITOR COUNTRY AMOUNT. (%) (YRS) (YRS) ELEMENT(%) EOUIVALENT AMOUNT

MULTILATERAL LOANSISRO 12,900 7.250 30.0 e.g 20.2 2.606 12.900

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 12,900 7.250 30.0 6.5 20.2 2,606 12,s00

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 6,831 6.032 20.8 4.6 28.1 1,921 6,831GERMAN OEM. REP. 659 4.500 17.5 1.0 29.1 192 e.gTRINIDAD & TOBAGO 20,000 6.325 8.9 2.9 15.4 3,080 20,000UNITED STATES 5,316 6.000 8.6 5.6 18.9 90' 5,316VENEZUELA 15,000 * 19.5 5°0 66.2 9,930 15,000

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 47,4o6 4.237 14.0 4.1 33.7 16,120 47,80sTOTAL 7412 84,099 6.953 14.4 4.1 19.6 16,478 84,099

7512SUPPLIERS CREDITSCANADA 427 10.009 6.4 o.5 -0.8 *3 427INDI . . . , 923UNITED KINGDOM 8,241 8.054 8.2 1.3 5.5 450 8,241UNITED STATES 2,691 7.000 5.1 0.6 6.5 175 2,691

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 11,359 7.876 7.4 1.1 5.5 628 11,452 EFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSUNITED KINGOOM 2,453 7.000 5,7 1.2 7.7 1s9 2,453MULTIPLE LENDERS 24,000 9.935 4.1 2.6 -0.5 -120 24,000

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 26.453 9.663 4.2 2.5 0.3 6s 26,453

MULTILATERAL LOANSIIlRD 8,000 s.500 29,0 10.0 10.6 848 6,000IDA 4,000 0.750 49.0 10.0 82.9 3,316 4,000

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 12,000 5.917 35.7 10.0 34,7 4,164 12,000

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 1,987 * 50,1 100. 90.0 I,769 1,987GERMAN DEM. REP. 5,179 4.500 17.5 1.0 29.1 1,507 5,179UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 5,000 4,000 12.0 3.0 29.5 1,475 5,000UNITED STATES 1,800 2.598 40.8 10.8 64.6 1,163 1,800

* INCLUCES INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD TO DEBTS WITH ORIGINAL COMMITMENT DATES FROM JAN. 1, 1900 TO DEC. 31, 1984,* TOTAL LOANS HAVING INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD AND MATURITY INFORMATION AVAILABLE, USED TO COMPUTE AVERAGE TERMS.*. TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN THIS BREAKDOWN REGARDLESS OF AVAILABILITY OF INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD, AND MATURITY INFORMATION.

Page 4 of 10Table 4.3 - GUYANA

STRUCTURE AND TERMS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTCOMMITMENTS JAN. 1, 1970 - DEC. 31, 1984 *DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)AVERAGE TERMS

PERIOD ENDING ..........................................................TYPE OF CREDITOR INTEREST MATURITY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL*$*CREDITOR COUNTRY AMOUNT** (%) (YRS) (YRS) ELEMENT(%) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS / 13.966 3.436 23.2 4,3 42.5 5,933 13,966TOTAL 7512 63,778 7.276 14.9 4.0 16,9 10,794 63,871

7612SUPPLIERS CREDITSCANAOA 137 10.743 5.0 0.5 -2.3 -3 137JAPAN 439 8.000 3.3 O. 3.1 14 438UNITED KINGDOM 19,325 7.525 8.0 2.3 8.5 1,647 19.325

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 99,900 7,558 7.9 2.2 8.3 1,657 19,900

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSBAHAMAS 6,600 7,473 2.9 2.5 5.0 331 6,600CANADA 5,513 8.083 4.1 2.0 4.7 261 5,513UNITED KINGDOM 21,393 7.188 6.9 5.4 12.0 2,565 21,393UNITED STATES 2,917 8.435 5.0 1.2 3.4 98 2,917MULTIPLE LENDERS 4,000 9.060 5.0 2.5 2.1 94 4,000

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 40,423 7.632 5.5 3.9 8.3 3.339 40.423

MULTILATERAL LOANSCARIBBEAN DEV. BANK 79 8.000 14.2 3.7 10.0 8 79 i

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 79 8.000 14.2 3.7 10.0 o 79

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 1,355 B.110 14.3 4.6 13.1 178 1,355GERMAN OEM. REP. 9,277 4.500 17.5 1.0 29.1 2,409 8,277GERMANY, FEODREP. OF 4,700 8,000 9.0 2,5 7,4 348 4,700UNITED KINGDOM 2,077 3.000 23.3 4.3 47.9 995 2,077VENEZUELA 1.166 5.000 8.3 4.8 22.5 262 11,66

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 17,575 5.570 15.1 2.3 23.9 4,192 17,575TOTAL 7612 77,977 7,149 8.3 3.1 11.8 9,195 77.977

7712SUPPLIERS CREDITSUNITED STATES 623 9.500 6.7 0.7 0,8 5 623

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 623 9.500 6.7 0.7 0.8 5 623

* INCLUDES INCREASES DURING THIS,PERIOD TO DEBTS WITH ORIGINAL COMMITMENT DATES IROM JAN. I, 1900 TO DEC. 31, 1984.*. TOrAL LOANS HAVING INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD AND MATURITY INFORMATION AVAILABLE, USED TO COMPUTE AVERAOE TERMS.

s.e TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN THIS BREAKDOWN REGARDLESS OF AVAILABILITY OF INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD, AND MATURITY INFORMATION.

Page 5 of 10Table 4.3 - GUYANA

STRUCTURE AND TERMS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTCOMMITMENTS JAN. 1, 1970 - DEC. 31, 1984 *DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANOS OF U.S. DOLLARS)AVERAGE TERMS

PERIOD ENDING .......TYPE OF CREDITOR INTEREST MATURITY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTALe*CREDITOR COUNTRY AMOUNTss (%) (YRS) (YRS) ELEMENT(%) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSBAHAMAS 900 8.435 4.6 1.6 3.9 35 900UNITED KINGDOM 2,040 7.250 5.9 1.3 7.2 147 2.040UNITED STATES 4,444 8.875 6.1 1.1 2.3 102 4,444

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 7,384 8.372 5.8 1.2 3.8 284 7,384

MULTILATERAL LOANSCARIBBEAN DEV. BANK 3,559 5.640 18.9 5.3 26.4 967 3,659OPEC SPECIAL FUND 1,600 - 24.5 5.0 71.6 1,146 1,600

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 5,259 3.924 20.5 5.2 40.2 2,113 5,259

BILATERAL LOANSCANAOA 17,196 1.318 44.6 9.2 78.4 13,486 17,196GERMAN OEM. REP. 1,476 4.500 17.5 l.0 29.1 430 1,476UNITEO STATES 1,000 2.577 41.0 11.0 65.0 650 1,000VENEZUELA 3,269 8.270 20.1 5.2 10.2 333 3,269YUGOSLAVIA 6,358 4.000 4.6 0.6 13.7 871 6,358

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 29.299 2.879 31.7 6.5 53.8 15,769 29,299TOTAL 7712 42,565 4.058 25.5 5.3 42.7 1,171 42,565

7812SUPPLIERS CREDITS

JAPAN 1.982 7.500 5.8 1.3 6.5 129 1,982UNITED STATES 248 9.500 5.8 1.3 0.7 2 248

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 2.230 7.722 5.9 1.3 5.9 131 2.230

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSBAHAMAS 1,382 11.124 5.3 2.4 -4.3 -59 1,382CANADA 6,000 10.185 5.0 2.0 -1.2 -72 6,000UNITED KINGDOM 356 10.152 5.6 1.1 -1,1 -4 356

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 7,738 10.351 5.1 2.9 -1,7 -135 7,738

MULTILATERAL LOANSCARIBBEAN DEV. BANK 4,500 4.000 18.7 9.2 42.8 1,926 4,500EUROPEAN INVEST BANK 4,091 2.000 20.0 6.0 54.8 2,242 4,091I1RO 15,000 7.900 19.8 5.3 12.8 1,920 5B,000

* INCLUDES INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD TO DEBTS WITH ORIGINAL COMMITMENT DATES FROM JAN. I, 1900 TO DEC. 31, 1984.*. TOTAL LOANS HAVING INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD AND MATURITY INFORMATION AVAILABLE, USED TO COMPUTE AVERAGE TERMS.*** TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN THIS BREAKDOWN REGARDLESS OF AVAILABILITY OF INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD, AND MATURITY INFORMATION.

Page 6 of 10Table '.3 - GUYANA

STRUCTURE AND TERMS OF EXTERNAL PURLIO OEBTCOMMITMENTS JAN. 1, 1970 - DEC. 31, 1984 sDEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)AVERAGE TERMS

PERIOD ENDING -..-.........................--......--......-...........TYPE OF CREDITOR INTEREST MATURITY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL@**

CREDITOR COUNTRY AMOUNT- () (YRS) (YRS) ELEMENTM%) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT. .-. .......-. ( ..-......-....-----...........---.......-....---......--.......-.... ..... .............. ........ . ............. ..... .......... ....... .......... .... .. ...... ........

IDA 15,000 0.750 49.4 9.9 82.8 12,425 15,000tOB 64,100 1.584 40.0 10.5 73.4 47,042 64,100OPEC SPECIAL FUND 6.000 4.000 17.7 4.9 37.4 2,244 6,000

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 108.691 2.590 35.6 9.2 62.4 67,799 108,691

BILATERAL LOANSBRAZIL S,O00 8.000 10.4 1.9 7.7 385 5o00CANADA 7,917 49.9 10.4 90.3 7,149 7,917GERMAN DEM. REP. 4,457 4.500 8.7 2.5 l8.l 807 4,457KOREA. O.P.R. OF 655 . 18.8 4.8 64.6 423 655LIBYA 5.000 5.000 10.0 5.0 24.6 1.230 5,000UNITED KINGDOM 32.631 3.412 25.3 4.9 46.9 15,298 32,631UNITED STATES 30,495 2.368 23.5 10.9 59.8 18,237 30,496VENEZUELA 648 8.000 20.8 5.3 12.3 80 648

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 86,804 3.154 24.1 7.2 50.2 43,609 86,804TOTAL 7812 205,463 3.176 29.3 8.0 54.2 111,403 205,463

7912SUPPLIERS CREDITS

NETHERLANDS 1.049 7.250 5.6 I.1 6.8 71 1,049UNITED KINGOOM 443 7.500 7.7 1.2 7.7 34 443UNITED STATES 644 13.000 6.0 1.0 -9.1 59 644

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 2.136 9.035 6.2 1.1 2.2 47 2,136

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSAUSTRIA 3,506 7.500 5.8 1.3 6.5 228 3,606NETHERLANDS 350 3.000 30.0 9.0 57.0 199 350SWITZERLAND 10,000 16.565 1.8 1.3 *9.4 -940 10,000UNITED KINGDOM 3.866 8.018 5.8 1.1 4.8 184 3.866MULTIPLE LENDERS 31,000 12.794 7.0 1.0 -9.5 -2,945 31.000

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 48,722 12.738 5.9 1l1 -6.7 -3,274 48,722

MULTILATERAL LOANSCARIBBEAN DEV. BANK 17,945 7.883 21.5 7.4 14.0 2,509 17,945EEC 3,000 0.750 50.2 20.2 87.8 2,634 3,000EUROPEAN OEV.FUND 7,815 1.000 39.8 10.3 78.4 6,129 7,816

9 INCLUDES INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD TO DEBTS WITH ORIGINAL COMMITMENT DATES FROM JAN. 1, 1900 TO DEC. 31, 1984.* TOTAL LOANS HAVING INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD AND MATURITY INFORMATION AVAILABLE. USED TO COMPUTE AVERAGE TERMS.*' TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN THIS BREAKDOWN REGARDLESS OF AVAILABILITY OF INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD, AND MATURITY INFORMATION,

Page 7 of 10Table 4.3 - GUYANA

STRUCTURE AND TERMS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTCOMMITMENTS JAN, 1, 1970 - DEC. 31, 1984 *DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. OOLLARS)AVERAGE TERMS

PERIOO ENDING --------------..------..-..TYPE OF CREDITOR INTEREST MATURITY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL**CREDITOR COUNTRY AMOUNT (X} (YRS) (YRS) ELEMENT(%) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT

................................. ..... . ....... ........ ..... ......... .......... .......

10B 6.100 1.582 40.1 10.6 73.5 4,483 6,100TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 34,860 4.624 31.3 9.7 45.2 15,755 34,600

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 2,561 49.5 10.0 99.9 2,302 2,561GERMAN DEM. REP. 2.089 4.500 17.5 1.0 29.1 608 2,089UNITED STATES 5;009 2.517 20.1 7.0 51.9 2,602 5,009VENEZUELA 6,000 7.500 20.0 6.5 16.1 .965 6,000

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 15.659 4.279 24.5 6.5 41.4 6,478 15,659TOTAL 7912 101.377 8.563 17.5 4.9 18.7 19,007 101,377

8012SUPPLIERS CREDITS

INOIA 432 9.000 4.2 0.2 1.2 5 432NETHERLANDS 2,823 9.200 5.6 1.1 1.5 42 2,823UNITED KINGDOM 6,966 7.362 5.2 0.4 5.8 401 6,966

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 10.221 7.939 5.3 0.6 4.4 449 10,22t

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSBAHAMAS 445 18.745 3.0 1.0 -15.8 -70 445 -NETHERLANDS 5,289 8.383 6.4 1.9 4.5 238 5,289UNITED STATES 10,111 15.368 5.3 0.8 -14.0 -1,414 10,m11MULTIPLE LENDERS 10,000 19.375 7.8 3.8 -41.2 -4.120 10,000

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 25.845 15.547 6.5 2.2 -20.8 -5,366 25,845

MULTILATERAL LOANSCARIBBEAN DEV. BANK 8,232 6.159 17.6 7.7 26.8 2,205 8,232EUROPEAN OEV.FUNO 935 1.000 39.9 10.4 78.5 734 935IBRD 8.000 9.250 10.2 4.7 2.6 208 8,000OPEC SPECIAL FUND 5,000 4.000 9.4 2.9 25.6 1,280 5,000

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 22,167 6.570 14.0 5.7 20.0 4.427 22,167

BILATERAL LOANSBRAZIL 10,000 8.000 10.4 1.9 7.7 770 10.000GERMAN DEM. REP. 2.934 4.500 17.5 1.0 29.1 854 2,934NETHERLANDS 2,647 2.500 16.2 2.5 40.9 1.082 2,647

* INCLUDES INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD TO DEBTS WITH ORIGINAL COMMITMENT DATES FROM JAN. 1, 1900 TO DEC. 31. 1984.*e TOTAL LOANS HAVING INTEREST. GRACE PERIOD AND MATURITY INFORMATION AVAILABLE, USED TO COMPUTE AVERAGE TERMS.

**e TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN THIS BREAKDOWN REGARDLESS OF AVAILABILITY OF INTEREST. GRACE PERIOD. AND MATURITY INFORMATION.

Page 8 of 10Table 4.3 - GUYANA

STRUCTURE AND TERMS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTCOMMITMENTS UAN. f, 1970 - DEC. 31, 1984 .DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)AVERAGE TERMS

PERIOD ENDING ..... ..... .... ..... .... ..... ..... .... ..... ....TYPE OF CREDITOR INTEREST MATURITY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL-CREDITOR COUNTRY AMOUNT- " {) (YRS) (YRS) ELEMENT(%) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT

.... ....... ... ..... ,........ ,.............. ---- --- ........ . ... .... . ..... .. ......... .......... --------. _

UNITEO STATES 1,000 2.417 25.5 12.0 61.7 617 1,000USSR 962 - 3.3 1.8 2t.6 208 962

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 17.543 5.828 12.9 2.4 20.1 3.530 17.543TOTAL 8012 75.776 9.645 10.0 3.0 4.0 3,040 75,776

8112SUPPLIERS CRED.ITSDENMARK 2,132 8.670 7.6 1.5 4.0 85 2,132NETHERLANDS 2,085 8.469 5.9 0.9 3.8 79 2,085UNITED KINGDOM 1,403 7.500 5.3 0.8 5.7 80 1.403

TOTAI. SUPPLIERS CREDITS 5,620 8.303 6.4 1.1 4.3 243 5,620

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSNETHERLANDS 1,16B 8.383 6.4 1.9 4.5 53 1,168UNITED KINGDOM 15,840 7.372 6.5 1.7 7.5 1,195 15,840

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 17,008 7.441 6.5 1.7 7.3 1,247 17.008

MULTILATERAL LOANSCARIBBEAN DEV. BANK 5,000 4.000 19.0 9.5 43.3 2,165 5,000IBAD 15,500 9.250 20.6 5.1 3.5 542 15.500IDA 7.433 0.750 49.6 10.1 83.0 6.169 7,433IDB 38.700 3.776 35.6 8.5 53.0 20.521 38,700IMF TRUST FUND 13,280 0.500 10.0 5.5 49.1 6,520 13,280OPEC SPECIAL FUND 10,000 4.000 9.5 3.0 25.9 2.590 10,000

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 89,913 4.023 26.6 7.1 42.8 38.508 89,913

BILATERAL LOANSBRAZIL 5,000 8.000 10.4 1.9 7.7 385 5,000CANADA 5,506 2.148 44.4 8.6 76.9 4,237 5.506GERMAN OEM. REP. 2,644 4.500 17.5 1.0 29.1 769 2,644NETHERLANDS 1,801 2.500 20.1 5.1 50.2 904 1,801TRINIDAD b TOBAGO 70,938 3.000 15.0 4.0 40.1 28,446 70,938UNITED KINGDOM 152 4.000 25.0 5.5 43.0 65 152UNITED STATES 2,500 8.750 5.9 1.4 3.0 75 2.500

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 88,541 3.428 16.5 4.0 39.4 34,882 88,541TOTAL 8112 201.082 4.170 19.9 5.1 37.2 74.881 201,082

* INCLUDES INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD TO DEBTS WITH ORIGINAL COMMITMENT DATES FROM JAN. l. 1900 TO DEC. 31, 1984.a. TOTAL LOANS HAVING INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD AND MATURITY INFORMATION AVAILABLE. USED TO COMPUTE AVERAGE TERMS.*. TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN THIS BREAKDOWN REGARDLESS OF AVAILABILITY OF INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD, AND MATURITY INFORMATION.

Page 9 of 10Table 4.3 - GUYANA

STRUCTURE AND TERMS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTCOMMITMENTS JAN. 1, 1970 - DEC. 31, 1984 *DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)AVERAGE TERMS

PERIOD ENDING -- ----------------------------------------TYPE OF CREDITOR INTEREST MATURITY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL***

CREDITOR COUNTRY AMOUNT IX) (YRS) (YRS) ELEMENT(%) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT_ _ _ _ . ... . -- - - - -- - - - ....... . ... . . ... . . -- - -- - - - -- - -- - -------- __

8212FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

UNITED STATES 600 17.625 4.5 l -18.6 -112 600TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS . 600 17.625 4.5 1.5 -18.6 -112 600

MULTILATERAL LOANSEUROPEAN DEV.FUNO 442 1.000 39.9 10.4 78.5 347 442IDA 1,877 0.750 49.5 10.0 83.0 1.558 1.877

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 2,319 0.798 47.7 10.1 82.1 1.905 2.319

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 9,730 49.7 10.2 90.0 8,757 9,730GERMAN OEM. REP. 13,660 4.500 17.5 1.0 29.1 3,975 13,660UNITED KINGDOM 1.421 7.500 6.2 0.9 6.2 88 1.421

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 24,811 2.907 29.5 4.6 51.7 12,820 24.811TOTAL 8212 27.730 3.049 30.6 5.0 52.7 14,613 27,730

8312MULTILATERAL LOANS

CARIBBEAN DEV. BANK 148 9.500 15.8 5.3 1.7 3 148TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 148 9.500 15.8 5.3 1.7 3 148 9

BILATERAL LOANSCANADA 11,360 - 47.5 10.0 89.4 10.156 11.360UNITED STATES 81 2.800 20.3 2.3 43.9 36 el

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 11,441 0.020 47.3 9.9 89.1 10,191 11,441TOTAL 8312 11,589 0.141 46.9 9.9 88.0 10,194 11,589

8412MULTILATERAL LOANS

IDB 40,700 10.000 15.0 0.5 -1.2 -488 40.700OPEC SPECIAL FUND . 3,000 3.000 13.6 4.1 38.3 1.149 3,000

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 43.700 9.519 14.9 0.7 1.5 661 43.700TOTAL 8412 43.700 9.519 14.9 0.7 1.5 661 43.700

e INCLUDES INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD TO DEBTS WITH ORIGINAL COMMITMENT DATES FROM JAN. 1, 1900 TO DEC. 31, 1984.*. TOTAL LOANS HAVING INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD AND MATURITY INFORMATION AVAILABLE, USED TO COMPUTE AVERAGE TERMS.

*. TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN THIS BREAKDOWN REGARDLESS OF AVAILABILITY OF INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD, AND MATURITY INFORMATION.

Page 10 of 10Table 4.3 - GUYANA

STRUCTURE AND TERMS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTCOMMITMENTS JAN. 1, 1970 - DEC. 31. 1984 *nEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)AVERAGE TERMS

PERIOD ENDING ------ --- --------------------------------------TYPE OF CREDITOR INTEREST MATURITY GRACE GRANT GRANT TOTAL**-

CREDITOR COUNTRY AMOUNT-* (X) (YRS) (YRS) ELEMENT(%) EQUIVALENT AMOUNT________......................................... __................ -------.. . -------- . _. _ __ ............... ._.-_____-___ ......................... ____

TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 1,085,238 5.584 20.3 5.3 32.2 349.827 1,085.331

* INCLUDES INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD TO DEBTS WITH ORIGINAL COMMITMENT DATES FROM JAN. 1. 1900 TO DEC. 31. 1984.es TOTAL LOANS HAVING INTEREST. GRACE PERIOD AND MATURITY INFORMATION AVAILABLE, USED TO COMPUTE AVERAGE TERMS.* TOTAL OF ALL LOANS IN THIS BREAKDOWN REGARDLESS OF AVAILABILITY OF INTEREST, GRACE PERIOD, AND MATURITY INFORMATION.

/

- 119 -

Table 4.4i UiTMI - Exterml Pulic Debt by Tp f Creditor

End of Tw 72 1973 1974 197S 76 1977 1976 1979 1980 1911 1982 1963 1984

Total Debt (locl. udls rd 25. 266.0 3519M 405J 460A 44.0 556.9 731.2 776.6 890.7 83.4 am.2 83

Case lei 68. 82 s 113.2 147.6 053.6 254 194.6 221.9 236.6 212.7 196.6 175.4 166.6

S Ipploer Credits - 2.3 2.8 12.6 21 2.2 27V9 25. 30.9 23.6 19.6 17.1 143

Finmuclal letltutlms - 14.3 353 5.1 82.9 853 79.2 113.7 129.4 12S.1 117.7 112.5 106.0

BDnds 16.2 14.1 143 123 103 11.6 123 135S 14.5 7.6 6.4 s5 4.6

NotlnIlzatimu 52.7 51.8 60 63.6 81.6 193 75.2 63 63. 5C.4 5239 43.0 41.7

Has rclal 167.0 13.5 2t6.7 25.1 257.2 218.6 4623 5153 540.0 678 659.8 6493 661.7

4titIIator 1 22.9 23.9 41.4 53.2 53.1 S7. 166.4 2013 221.4 307.5 306.6 300.1 M2.

Bilateral 144.1 154A 255.4 2D4.8 2D4.1 0.7 295.9 314.0 318.6 370.5 5.2 349.7 3293

S of Total

Crcial 23 31 31 35 44 42 N 3 3D 24 23 22 2D

an-Co_rclal 71 69 69 64 56 D 70 70 70 75 71 18 8o

Dlwured Debt 157.5 173.4 213.7 21565 363A 4043 4358 507.1 5663 660.0 S613 692.6 682.5

-m_rcIal 68.3 75.4 90.7 132.5 180.6 1963 1I1. 215.2 24. 194.4 190.8 176A 166.6

Suppliers Credit - - 2.0 9.0 17.4 25a 27J 253 263 2a 18.2 17.J 143

Flnnclal listitutlms - 12.5 13.7 47.7 713 79.7 75.6 107.6 1193. 110.6 1133 1109 106.0

Bonds 16.2 14.1 143 123 103 11.6 123 13.5 14.5 736 6.4 5.a 4.6

Nealtnalization S2.7 51a 0A 653. 813 793 75.2 683 653 55.4 2.9 4S3 4f.7

Nm- rclal 68.7 95.0 1:5.0 163.0 t83.2 208.0 2e7.8 211.9 31.3 465.6 490.5 S5sa 515.9

hItilnterl 43 8.7 143 23.0 23.7 23.9 41.7 70.6 10WD 13s 25 234.5 266.2

Bilateral 53.9 063 105.7 143.0 1595 1.1 26.1 2213 253.9 22.1 35.0 313 29.7

K of Total

Cinclal 44 45 42 45 So 44 42 40 23 23 2C 24

Now-Corcial 5 55 5 so S0 St 56 5 60 71 72 74 76

Suwcs BOed co Table 4.2.

Jury/Febrmry 1985

- 120 -

Tabs1 4.5 OUYANA - SELECTED EXTERNtAL EBT INDICATORS

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1970 1979 1960 1981 1962 1983 1954

DOCIXOS CZ) 52.9 89.6 95.6 109.5 73.0 78.0 123.5 144.6 139.8 163.0 138.4 176.9 256.0 308.0 295.7

DO/ONP (3) 32.3 55.7 57.2 60.0 52.7 60.4 86.3 97.3 93.0 103.5 102.9 129.4 158.4 161.9 172.0

TOS/XGS CZ) 3.3 2.7 5.2 7.0 4.8 4.4 11.2 11.4 15.5 29.4 17.1 21.2 12.8 20.0 13.4

TDWONW C 2.0 1.7 3.1 3.8 3.4 3.4 7.8 7.7 10.6 18.6 12.7 15.5 10.9 10.5 7.8

INT/XOS (1S 2.1 1.9 3.6 3.9 3.0 2.7 6.7 5.4 5.5 8.1 6.6 9.7 9.0 10.6 6.9

INT/GNP CZ) 1.3 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 4.7 3.7 3.6 S.1 4.9 7.1 5.6 5.6 4.0

In US$ Million

000 s0 149 158 173 214 296 364 404 439 507 566 660 681 693 683

ClNP 247 267 276 288 406 490 422 415 472 490 550 510 430 428 397

XCS IS5 166 165 IS8 293 378 294 279 314 311 409 373 264 225 231

NOS 153 156 169 209 285 378 405 346 314 360 471 484 346 324 301

TVS 6 S.O 8 11 14 17 33 32 SO 91 70 79 47 45 31

INT 3 3 6 6 9 10 20 IS 17 25 27 36 24 24 16

Average

Exchange Rate

(US$1 a CS) 2.000 1.981 2.087 2.127 2.229 2.355 2.550 2.550 2.550 2.550 2.550 2.813 3.000 3.000 3.826

Note:

000 - Olsburaed and Outstanding Debt Cend-year).

105 - Public Debt Service Paymentr (interest and amortizatln).

INT - Public Debt Interest Paymnts.

GNP - gross Netlonal Product.

XGS - Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services.

NOS - Imports of Goods and Non-F ctor Services.

Janmry/Februsry 1985

- 121 -

Table 5.1 s UINA - IRAL GOVEINErT IENEIUES

(OS mliII lui

Prel.

1973 1974 1975 1976 I9?? 197 197m 1SM 1981 1982 1983 1984

DIrect Tess 63.4 1763 340.9 196.1 174.5 166.4 171.8 195.9 216.6 257.5 2103 235.3

CAiny Taxs 39.2 4B.8 73.0 67.0 108.0 90.l 96.8 115.2 130.1 132.8 113.3 133.2

Pers nl Incm Tax 20.2 27.4 30.2 35.6 39.0 56.4 SS. 51.7 62.6 79.7 67.0 68.6

Property Tax 2.9 2.8 IJ 4.1 4.3 3.7 4.0 2.4 3.6 3.8 7.5 7.9

Estate Duty 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.4

National Delopnt Surtax 0.4 5.5 7.5 9.2 9.5 14.7 14.1 14.5 17.4 8.4 17.2 17.0

Supr Levy - 91.0 2Z27.3 76.2 12.0 - - - - - - -

Otisr - 0.1 0.1 0.1 03 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 2.5 5.2

Indirect Tans 71.2 102.9 128.2 140.4 126.5 144.0 161A8 188.6 263.5 215.9 277.6 309.2

lupor t Duty 30.2 33.2 41.4 52.0 39.1 33.9 36.4 37.4 46.9 26.8 29.0 24.8

Exclis Duties 16.2 17.3 2D5 23.6 26.4 3.8 39.6 41.1 39.3 43.0 37.1 43.5

Censuqtlon Tax 16.8 37.5 42.4 49.9 4.4 54. 62.5 B4.3 139.3 111.0 141.8 161.3

Export Duties 3.5 4.1 2.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.3 1.6 0.9 1.2 2.2

EntertlnmntTax 0.9 1.0 IJ 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.2 2.9 33 3.6 3.6

Licens Fees 33 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.5 6.5 6.2 6.5 7.8 83 9.0 8.7

Trave l Tax a, 7.1 7.9 8. 17.8 16.8 4.9 49.7

Oier 03 6.1 173 9.1 10.3 2.6 5.5 6.5 7.9 5.8 14.0 15.4

Other Nantax Crnt Rbnues 25.6 24.0 28.2 55.2 51.4 53.2 61.3 66.8 78.1 93.9 78.0 55.7

Rant, Royalties, etc. 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.7 oa 0.5 0.6 2.0

Interest 0.18 0.1 - - 2.7 1.0 0.8 3.0 3.4 2.1 4J 3.6

Dlvidends fran Pubi1c

Enterises 11.0 7.2 6.0 3.7 .7 22.2 28.4 12.5 13.3 25.3 9.6 1.6

Fees, Fines, Etc. 3.4 3.2 5.2 7.5 7.2 10.4 11.5 133 14.9 14.0 13.6 13.7

Bank of guvn Proflts 3.1 5.6 8.5 13.0 9.2 9.0 13.1 233 37.5 39.8 38.4 22.1

Othr 5.7 6.5 7.S 2.8 2.5 9.1 6.4 9.0 8.2 14.2 12. 10.0

Total Current Revene. 160.2 303.2 497.3 389.7 354 363.4 394.9 451.3 558.2 5473 565.9 600.2

Total Capital Rv 4.0 1.7 0.4 0.2 2.7 2.2 17.3 3.8 20.7 33 2.3 51.2

Extaresl rants 3.6 1.5 0.3 - 2.1 0.7 15.8 3.0 9.9 2.5 1.2 50.7

Other 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 13 1.5 0.8 10OA 0.8 1.1 0.5

OTA. RIEEIUE 164.2 304.9 497.7 389.9 355.1 365.8 412.2 455.1 57.9 550.6 56.2 651.4

at For 1973 thru 1977 Included under 'Othr-.

Sources Ministry of Fl nonce, and stefl estlktas.

JenuryJFebrury 1985.

- 122 -

Table 5.2. OUYA - CENTRAL GOVERNIENT EXPEDITIUES B ECONO1IC ACLSSIFICATION

CGO ml I Il..)

Actual Pr.l.

1173 1974 1175 1976 1977 1173 1979 1910 1911 1902 1983 1184

Total Expendituree 270.7 340.2 63a.8 805.0 543.6 S42.2 690.7 935.2 1,205.7 1,570.1 121 1.0 1 630.2. _ _. _. _u . _U _m * _ m

Current Expenditures 200.5 249.4 327.5 457.2 415.0 423.8 417.3 613.9 805.6 764.8 895.5 1,15_.2

Oeode a*d Services 140.2 160.0 227.1 304.2 264.0 231.6 310.1 364.7 463.S 312.0 399.4 S27.6

Perea "l Emelis_ tt C89.6) (91.4) C110.0) (12.) CS154.0) (176.2) (133.7) (116.0) (228.3) (225.8) (231.0) U11a.6)

Other Goods and Services (50.6) (68.6) £117.1) (175.4) (130.0) S105.4) (126.4) 168.7) (217.11) 161.4) (168.42 (233.0)

Interest 32.S 39a 319 69.6 70.7 93.8 133.1 164.6 241.1 2U8.6 426.2 556.4Trnesferc 26.4 47.4 S7.3 76.6 S7.4 46.4 41.7 80.0 96.s 76.4 64.7 67.3

Coaemliditd Public Secteral (0.7) (0.6) (6.7) C10.4) (1.7) (0.5) (0.5) 0S. (0.5) (O.5) C-) C-)

Other Public Sector b/ (7.5) (13.3) (13.6) (16.1) (15.6, (22.9) (25.1) C30.0) (26.7) (21.2) (30.0 (33*.0)

Pension& and gratultles to

Private Sector (6.7) (9.4) (1.0) C12.7) (13.7) (18.5) (16J) (20.3) (27.6) (14.6) (23.5) (20.1)Otber Prlvate Sector (9.4) (20.1) (24.4) (54.2) (20.9) (3.2) (2.9) (22.7) (21.4) (16.7) (..) C..)

Intereetloenl £2.1) (3.3) (3.6 (4.5) (5.5) (1.3) (4.4) (6.S) (20.3) (25.4) (11.22 (14.2)Refund of Revem_. 1.4 2.2 3.1 4.8 2.9 2.0 3.6 4.6 4.S 5.8 5.2 7.9

Capital Expanditure 70.2 10.8 311.5 345.8 128.6 113.4 193.4 321.3 400.1 306.1 39S.5 671.0

Cepitl Formtlen 59.2 69.5 137.1 174.0 101.4 8.3 125.2 182.1 275.1 232.6 233.7 232.9Acqelistion af Fimaciel

Assets 4.4 3.2 70.0 116.1 3.7 0.6 7.3 2.3 13.9 16.0 12.0 51.0

Traseters (Grants and Loans) 6.6 18.1 54.4 55.7 23.4 49.5 60S 9 136.1 111.1 557.5 149.4 387.1

Coeeolidated Pubilc Sector (1.8) (3.8) (6.5) C9.1) (9.1) (20.3) (11.1 (61.0) C44.1) (495.0) (92.5) (333.9)

Otber Public Sector (3.0) (11.8) (35.81) 26.11) 0.9) (16.6) (32.5) (54.8) (57.4) (40.3) (41.2) (28.9)Private Sector (O.0. (1.7) (10.0) (16.1) (9.6) (10.3) (10.5) (18.7) (4.2) (15.5) (12.0) (19.5)Internmtleoal (1.0) (0.8) (2.1) (3.7) (3.0) (2.3) (5.9) (2.4) (5.4) (6.7) (4.11) 4.6)

a/ From IS83 Included In capital transferx (grents and lase).bh From 1983. Includes National Service expenditures. previously deslgeeted es capital expenditures.

Sources Ministry of Fienne and staff *atim too.

Januery/Fsbrury 1985

- 123 -

Table 5.3S WYANA - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF CENTRAL OVERISNEI

(Os tolon)

Actual Prorl.

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1952 1953 194

Current Revenues 389.7 352.4 363.6 394.9 451.3 558.2 547.3 565.9 600.2

Tax Rovenue 336.5 301.0 310.4 333.6 384.5 480.1 453.4 487.9 544.5

Direct Taxes 196.1 174.5 156.4 171.S 195.9 216.6 237.5 210.3 235.3

Indirect Toxes 140.4 126.5 144.0 161.8 188.6 263.5 215.9 277.6 309.2

Non-Tax Rove,. 53.2 51.4 53.2 61.3 66.8 78.1 93.9 78.0 55.7

Current ExpondItures 457.2 415.0 423D. 497.3 613.9 805A 74M 895.5 1159.2m mm~~~~~~~~~~ M~m urn. mu mm wmmml~ mimww Wm

Personml Emolunts 128.6 1S7.9 176.2 183.7 196.0 228.3 225.8 231.0 289.6

Otber 328.4 257.1 247.6 313.6 417.9 577.3 539.0 664.5 669.6

Interest 69.6 71.2 93.8 133.9 164.6 241.1 288.6 426.1 556.4

Transfers 83.4 60.5 46.4 49.7 80.0 96.5 78.4 64.7 67.3

Other Gooda and ServIces 175.4 125.4 107.4 130.0 173.3 239.7 172.0 173.7 245.9

Current Surplus/DefIcIt -67.5 -62.6 -60.2 -102.4 -162.6 -247.4 -217.5 -329.6 -559.0m3 m* m m m w w mm MM mmm m m

Capital Rocelptu 0.2 2.7 2.2 17.3 3.8 20.7 3.3 2.3 51.2

Capital ExpendItures 345.8 128.6 118.4 193.4 321.3 400.1 806.1 395.5 671.0

Overall Surplus/DefIcit -413.1 -188.5 -176.4 -278.5 -480.1 -626.8 -1020.3 -722.8 -1178.8

Sources Tables 5.1 and 5.2.

Janaary/Fabruary 1985

- 124 _

Table 5.4. WYAA - CENTRAL B0VERI4INT FINAIICINI

(as m1111o)

Pr I.

1975 1976 1977 1976 9s" 1960 lNl 1982 1963 IU4

Total Flaneingl 166.9 420.0 207.4 207.7 26S.1 4S0.1 626.6 1020.3 722.5 1178.6

External Borrowing [net) 127.7 110.3 22.2 53.7 67.2 93.4 338.7 129.6 120.0 40.9

Multilateral 14.3 6.9 12.2 30.0 67.2 64.3 170.5 99.6 91.5 47.7Olbursaents (14.6) (9.9) (13.6) (31.11 (69.2) (66.8) t173.21 1101.1) (97.6) (73.3)

Amortlzatloe 4-0.3) (-1.01 (-1.4) I-1.1 (-2.0) (-2.) (-2.71 (-2.2) t-6.3) C-26.1)

Bilateral 29.6 49.4 24.5 359 26.2 10.7 226.7 54.8 35.7 7.6

Di aburamata (35.8) (58.81 (33.4) (48.7) (S0.6) (39.4) 1244.41 (63.7) 135.7) (12.8)Amrtizatlee (-6.2) (-9.4) t-8.93 (-12.01) -24.6) (-28.7) 1-15.7) (-6.9) t-) (-5.2)

Flmnclal Narkets 29.1 25.2 3.5 8.3 -10.0 22.3 -4.5 -0.6 - -

Dlbursements (33.2) (29.9) (9.2) (26.71 (9.5) (26.6) -) -) - t-)Amrtlzatlon (-4.1) (-4.7) (-5.71 (-16.4) (-19.5) (-4.3) (-4.S (-0.61) C-I

reade Credits 12.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.4 1.7 -5.7 2.3 0.6 - -

Disburemnts (13.6) (1.41 C-) C-) (5.7) (1.5) (8.0) (3.7) () C-iAmortizatimo (-1.4) C-3.9) (-4.01 t-4.4) (-4.0) (-7.2) t-5.7) (-2.9) (-) C-)

Natlonallzatlon 42.5 49.3 -14.0 -16.1 -16.5 -18.2 -6.3 -25.0 -7.2 -14.4Disbursements (45.0) (62.71 (0.9) C-) t-) C-) 1-) I-) (-) (C-

AmortizatIom (-2.5) (-13.41 (-14.92 (-16.1) (-16.5) (-18.2) (4.3) (-25.0) (-7.2) (-14.4)

Domestic Seek Borrowing (net) 45.1 240.3 143.1 71.6 137.3 268.6 133.4 704.7 324.6 820.7SeEk of Guyana -26.5 2S2.2 91 " U.S 15S.0 277 5 I05.2 533.7 162.1 769.8

C_rCelnl Banks 71.6 -11.9 51.4 25.0 -20.7 11.1 26.2 171.0 162.5 50.9

Desetic Berrowing from OtherFinnecial Interuedlrler 3.6 S.6 3.6 4.3 -2.6 -3.5 6.7 17.9 38.3 42.0

Now Buliding Society 2.6 2.9 I.5 -2.2 1.4 -0.1 5.4 16.7 I5.6 41.S

Local Life Inearance Companies 1.1 2.7 2.0 0.5 -1.3 1.0 3.1 5.4 11.5 24.2Trust Companles - - 0.1 0.4 - -0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -0.5

Government develnopeat bonks -0.1 - - 5.6 -2.7 -2J -0.9 -0.2 1.7 0.7Penslon funds - - - - - -1.5 -2.0 -4.1 6.8 -24.0

Cemetic Borrowing from

Consolidated Public Sector 33.1 31.3 9.2 38.3 64.0 61.5 67.8 107.9 i50.1 102.2

Ibtlonal Insurance Scheme 16.1 21.1 23.0 34.5 61.3 75.2 57.4 94.0 125.2 123.8

C,vernmet-Owned Corporations 17.0 10.2 -13.8 3.8 2.7 -13.7 10.4 13.1 .4.9 -21.6Doestic Borrowing frm

Unconsolidated Public Sector -4.6 -9.4 13.1 19.0 22.3 -4.1 -43.6 -63.5 -71.6 -40.4

Special fonds 2.1 -1.0 - 5.0 - 1.4 9.5 2.7 0.1 0.0

Sinking funds 0.9 2.3 25.1 28.8 -4.1 -25.2 1.9 26.7 16.3 12.7

Government Contributions toSinking Funds -7.6 -10.7 -12.0 -14.0 -18.2 -22.3 -55.2 -87.5 -90.0 -53.1

Otbhr Domestic Borrowing -I8.0 21.9 16.2 20.6 -I.S 56.2 74.0 123.7 161.4 213.4Inersner Companies. ... 0.6 1. 3.4 lO.6 7.7 6.7 10.4 10.1 1l.6 6.2

Other a/ -16.6 20.1 12.8 9.8 -9.2 79.5 63.6 113.6 149.8 205.2

a/ includes boldings of savings certificates and defens bonds.

Sorcess Minlstry of Finance.

January/February 196S

- 125 -

Table 5.5t GUYANA - SUMMARY CURRENT ACCOUNT OF PUBLIC SECTOR CORPORATIONS

ECS million)

Pr-l.

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

1 Operating Revenue 1186.7 1410.3 1610.0 2012.7 2122.3 1803 2 1648.9 2000.7

Guymlaa/Bldco C354.9) C364.0) (366.0) C542.0) (493.0) (327.0) C244.0) (410.0)

Onysueo (186.0) C261.4) C259.3) C328.8) (316.7) (276.0) (231.1) (307.9)

CR8 (91.9) C130.4) C113.1) (122.6) (156.6) (137.7) (113.7) (136.2)

N.l.S. (31.8) (44.9) (76.8) C84.8) (100.0) (112.5) (186.4) (139.5)

Other a* (522.1) 609.6) (792.8) (934.5) (1056.0) (950.0) (873.7) (1007.1)

2 Operatitg Expenditures b, 1030.1 1198.4 1372.9 1743.7 2098.7 1514.5 1644.6 2050.1

Guy.io-/Bidco (264.0) (285.0) (310.0) (459.0) C552.0) (422.0) (383.0) (514.0)

Onysuco (197.9) (266.0) V246.9) (311.2) (384.9) (354.7) (335.1) (395.8)

GRB (80.7) (100.0) (109.7) (122.0) (155.3) (SO.8) (123.5) (133.2)

N.I.Se (8.5) (10.9) (13.6) (14.3) (20.4) (24.3) (23.2) (25.0)

Other a/ (478.7) (S36.5) (692.5) C837.2) (986.1) (863.0) (779.8) (482.1)

3 Operating Balance 156.6 211.9 237.1 269.0 23.6 -11.6 4.3 -49.4

Guyuise/Bldco (90.9) (79.0) (56.0) (83.0) (-59.0) (-95.0) (-139.0) (-104.0)

Onysuco (-11.9) (-4.6) (12.4) (17.6) C-68.2) (-78.7) (-104.0) (-87.9)

GR8 (11.2) (30.4) (3.4) (0.6) (1.33 (-13.1) (-9.8) (3.0)

N.I.S. (23.0) (34.0) (65.0) (70.5) (79.6) (88.2) (163.2) (114.S)

Other m (43.4) (73.1) (100.3) (97.3) (69.9) (87.0) C93.9) (25.0)

4 not Transfers -103.8 -77.7 -50.1 -73.9 -70.6 -51.2 -62.5 -47.9

Transfers from CG '! (-3 -) (0.5) (O.S) (0.5) (0.5) C-) C-,

Transfers to CC (103.8) (77.6) (76.6) (69.9) (67.2) (54.03 (58.5) (43.6)

Local Govt. Taxes (-) (0.1) (4.0) C4.5) (3.9) (4.7) (4.0) (4.3)

5 Current Account Balance 52.8 134.2 157.0 195.1 -47.0 -69.8 -55.2 -97.3

Cuy.Ine/Bldco (49.1) C47.0) (33.0) (74.0) (-59.0) (-95.0) (-139.0) (-104.0)

Guysuco (-31.7) C-4.6) (12.4) (17.43 (-69.4) (-78.7) C-IOS.O) (-88.9)

ORB (11.2) (30.3) (3.2) (0.4) (1.1) (-13.3) (-10.0) (2.8)

".B.S. (23.0) (34.0) (65.0) (70.5) (79.6) (88.23 (163.2) (114.5)

Other a/ (1.2) (27.5) (43.4) (32.83 (1.7) (30.1) (32.6) (-21.7)

6 Capital receipts 15.7 26.5 11.9 61.0 44.1 495.0 92.5 333.9

7 Capital Expenditures 151.6 102.2 114.0 117.6 115.8 87.6 67.2 80.8

S Overall Balance -83.1 58.5 54.9 138.5 -118.7 337.6 -32.9 155.8

a/ The Onystac Group, excluding CRB. -

b/ Excludes depreclation allowances.

ef CC - Central Government. From 1983. included In capital recelpts.

Sources State Planning Secretariat.

JanuarylFebruary 1985

- 126 -

Table 5.6: CUTANA - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF PUBLIC SECTOR

(Gs mliles)

- … … …---------Actual -------------

1977 1978 1979 issO ls1l 9Se2 1963 1964

Carreat Account Surplas/Oflcit -31 55 54 32 -294 -267 -366 -66S

Central Governenet (-63) (-SO) t-102) C-163) C-247) (-217) C-330) (-5s9)

Other Public Sector (321 (t1s) (tSS) (195) (-47) C-70) (-sa6 (-97)

Central Govermernt

Capital Revenues 3 2 17 4 21 3 2 51

Capital Expanditeree 26S 226 294 376 472 399 369 418

Contral Government (12S) (144) C192) (321) C400) CO06) (39S) (671)

Otb-r Pubilc Sector (152) (102) (114) (1183 C(IS1 (66) CS?) Ca1)

Transfers to Corporatlons (-16) (-20) (-12) C-6I) t-44) (-49S3 (-93) (-334)

Overall Deficit -293 -169 -223 -342 -74S -653 -755 -1023

FInancing

Not Extereal Borrowing 99 121 106 130 340 144 154 70

Not Borrowing from

BankinS System 190 74 196 346 261 612 S62 523

Other tMet) 14 -26 -73 -134 124 -73 39 430

Sources Ministry of Finance and staff estimates.

January/February 1985

- 127 -

age 1 of 7Table 5.7i OUTANA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTNENT PROGRAM

(aS MIllIon)

1Se3 1964 bwget 19eS

Total External Local Total External Local Total Extraal Leol

A. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

Agriculture

Mehica-Nabhlcony-Abary 30.5 1.0 12.5 42.5 22.t 15.4 100.0 73.0 27.0

Black Boh 2.0 1.2 0.6 2.6 - 2.6 6.9 1.9 5.0

Tapklume 8.0 Z.S 5.5 6.3 - 6.3 6.S5 - 6.5

Geodetic Surwey 0.6 0.6 - 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2

General Agric Developmet - - - 0.1 - 0.1 - - -

graln Laguna Prog (IIC 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 - - -

Seed Farm Devi & Prod - - - - - - 0.5 - 0.5Re-hb of Dralnage & Irrigatlon - - - - - - 0.6 OS 0.1

Dock Farming - - - - - - 0.1 0.1 -

Veterinary Diagnostle Lab 0.7 0.6 0.1 - - - 0.2 0.2 -

Notlonal Agrlc Reuarcb last - - - - - - 0.7 - 0.7

Assistance to Dairy Induotry 2.0 - 2.0 2.0 - 2.0 - - -

Food Crop Productlon * Mktg 1O0S 7.5 2.7 3.6 3.2 0.4 3.1 2.S 0.6

Agric Sector Planing 1.7 1.7 - - - - - - -

Guyana School of Agrlc 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.1

corn ProductIon Project - - - - - - 0.4 0.2 0.2

Assistance to S ll Farmers 0.2 0.2 - - - - - - -

DaIry Feaslblllty Study - - - - - - 1.6 1.6 -

Drainage A irrIgatIon Wks CReglons) 0.1 - 0.1 1.2 - 1.2 2.7 - 2.7

Agric Sector Program S.2 3.0 2.2 6.2 4.0 4.2 16.2 11.1 7.1

Cocoa Rhabbillttloa - - - - - - 0.? - 0.1

Plant Nurseries - - - - -. - 0.2

Dairy Development - - - - - - 0.2 - 0.2Guyaaa/Llbya Agrlc Enterprice 2.9 2.9 - 3.1 2.1 1.0 - - _

Agric Development (RegIon) OS - 0.6 1.1 - 1.1 1.J - IJ

grain Legume Prog (Cuba) - - - - - - 0.5 0.7 0.1

National Land Registratlen 0.4 0.4 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.2 0.1 0.1

Coconut Rebabilltetlon 0.1 - 0.1 - - - 0.1 - 0.1

Kantowarl Agric Proj - - - - - - 1.1 0.9 0.2

Subtotal 65.9 38.9 26.8 71.3 36.7 34.6 146.7 93.2 53.5

Forestry

DOmrara Woods Ltd. 12.0 12.0 - 18.5 1.2 17.3 42.2 37.7 4.5

Equipment - - - - - - 0.1 - 0.1

Guyana Timbers Ltd. - - - - - - 2.1 - 2.1Forestry Cmisslo - - - - - - O.S - O.S

Subtotal 12.0 12.0 - 18.S 1.2 17.3 44.9 37.7 7.2

- 128 -Page 2 of 7

Table 5.7: GUYMNA - PUIBLIC SECTOR IWVESTNT PROGRAM (Continued)

(5million)

1983 1984 Budget 1985

Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local

Flhbries

Artlinal Fishery 0.1 - 0.1 0.5 - 0.5 17.0 16.4 0.6

Fishery Equlpmat - - - - - - 3.2 3.2 -

Fiaelry Developmnt 0.5 - 0.5 - - - - -

Flsb Culture Station OS - 0.5 0.3 0.3 - - -

Cuyna Flsbory Ltd. 5.3 - 5.3 1.7 - 1.7 4.7 1.6 3.1

Guyan/Llbya/Arab Flhing Co. 1.3 - - 3.3 - 3.3 - - -

Subtotal 7.7 - 7.7 5.B - 5.8 24.9 21.2 3.7

Manufaectring

Class Factory 0.3 - 0.3 2.9 - 2.9 - - -

Sanate Textiles (Chinl) - - - - - 0.7 - 0.7Vegetable Oil Plant 3.5 - 3.5 - -

Guyana Menuf Ind Devi Agency - - - 0.7 - 0.7 0.1 - 0.1

glassWorks - 0.7 - 0.7 - --

Rehab Milk Plant - - - - - - 1.7 1.7 -

Guyana Oil Palo Devi - 3.1 - 3.1

Milling Facilities - - - - 2.8 - Z.8

Subtotal 3.8 - 3.8 4.3 - 4.3 8.4 1.7 6.7

Mtining A OQarrying

Ronularuk Devi Project - - - 2.6 2.0 0.6 - - -

Matthews Ridge ngamnese Project - - 0.6 - 0.6 -

Subtotal - - - 3.2 2.0 1.2 - -

Touri_

Holiday Facilities 0.2 - 0.2 - - - - -

Subtotal 0.2 - 0.2 - -

Power

Hydropower Division 0.2 - 0.2 - - - -

Energy Authority 0.5 - OS 0.7 - 0.7 0.1 - 0.1

Magment Asslstance to GEC 4.2 2.8 1.4 3.0 2.0 1.0 5.6 5.6 -

Petrol-m Exploration - - - 1.5 1.5 - 4.0 3.6 0.4

UHDA 0.1 0.1 - 0.9 0.9 - - - -

Tutumrl IHEP - - - - - 0.3 0.3 -

CEC - - - 3.0 3.0 - 12.2 12.2 -

EClIpse Falls HEP - - - 2.2 - 2.2 25.0 - 25.0

Power Extension - - - 0.1 - 0.1

Subtotal 5.0 2.9 2.1 11.4 7.4 4.0 47.2 21.7 25.5

- 129 -

p ag 3 of 7

Table 5.7s GUYANA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTIENT PROGRAM (Cont Iand)

(COS MIlIoln)

1983 195 Budget 1985

Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local

Roads and Other Infrastructure

East Bank Berbice Rd. 1.5 1.3 OS 0.1 - O.i 3Z5 - 3.5

Upper Demerara Forestry Rd. 0.3 - 0.3 1.1 - 1.1 1.0 - 1.0

Black Bush Polder Rd. - - - 0.3 - 0.3 2.0 - 2.0

Misc. Nla- & Feeder Rd&. 0.3 - 0.3 0.3 - 0.3 - - -

Roads (Regions) 1.3 - 1.3 1,6 - 1.6 5.9 - 5.9

Surwvys 0.1 - 0.1 - - - 0.1 - 0.1

Essequlbo Sea & River Defense 8.2 0.9 7.3 7.8 - 7.5 10.0 - 10.0

River View ReverOnent - - - 0.4 - 0.4 0.1 - 0.1

MIsrc Se & Rlver Defenses 1.5 - 1.5 1.S - 1.8 5.0 - 5.0

Coldigen Wkshop Pbase I 1.0 0 1.0 0.1 - 0.1 - - -

Coldigen Wksbop Phase 11 - - - - - - 0.7 0J. 0.2

Central Repair Workshop 0.8 - 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 - - -

Right of Way ClearIng/Other 0.1 - 0.1 0.4 - 0.4 1.6 - 1.6

Feeder Rd. Project CUSAIO) 2.1 2.0 0.1 - - - - - -

Craft Training Centre 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 - 0.4 - - -

Subtotal 18.A 5.1 13.7 14.7 0.3 14.4 30.2 0.5 29.7

Transport and Co _mlcatloas

Rehabillitation of Stallings 0.2 - 0.2 0.5 - 0.5 1.0 - 1.0Purchase of Cargo Vessls/Spares - - - - - - 0.S - 0.5

Purchbse of Dredger Equipment 6.0 45 1.5 - - - - - -

Rehabilitation of Sbips 0.4 - 0.4 1.0 - 1.0 1.0 - 1.0

Civil Aviation Equipment - - - 0.3 - 0.3 1.S - 1.5

Rehab. of Timrhl 0.3 - 0.3 0.1 - 0.1 1.0 - 1.0

lReheb.dConst. Hinterland Airstrip 0.4 - 0.4 1.0 - 1D0 1 3 - 1.3

Road Researeh ProgJ/CTPU Studies 0.1 - 0.1 - - - - - -

FIlm Productlo.tEqulinp t - - - 0.1 - 0.1 03 0.2 0.1

Bridge& - - - 0.2 - 0.2 0.9 - 0.9Purchasa of EquIpmant 0.7 - 0.7 0.3 - 0.3 0.4 - 0.4

Ferry Spares - - - - - - 1.5 1.5 -

Navigatloal Aids - - - - - - 0.5 - 0.5

Guyana Telecom Corp. - - - - - - 0.1 0.1 -

Cuyana Broadcasting Corp. - - - - - - 5.0 - 5.0

Land & Water Transport - - - 0.2 - 0.2 0.5 - 0.5

Subtotal 5.1 4.5 3.6 3.7 - 3.7 15.5 1.5 13.7

- 130 -

Page 4 of 7

Table 5.7: GUYANA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTHENT PROGRAM (Continued)

(0s MlilotII

- 1983 Is4 Budget 1985

Total External Local Total External Local Total External Loeal

Edacation

Conat & Repair/NurseryVPrl_mry Sch 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 - - -

Second Educatlon Project 11.0 10.0 1.0 4.8 4.8 - 2.0 - 2.0Const & RepairlTech & Vee Scha - - - 0.1 - 0.1 - - -

Repair eo SanItary Facilities 0.1 - 0.1 - - -

Notherlands Ald Project 1.0 1.0 - - - - 0.3 0.3 -

Furniture Equlpmnt etc. for Sche - - - 0.1 - 0.1 - - -

Provlisons & Dletr of Textbooks 2.0 - 2.0 - - - - - -

Scbolarships (Continulng Studies) 4.5 - 4.5 8.3 _ 8.3 7.0 - 7.0

Assistance to Students 0.6 - 0. 0.5 - 0.5 0.7 - 0.7

Const Health Service Bldg CUG) 0.2 - 0.2 - - - - - -

Youth 4 Sport 0.1 - 0.1 - - - - - -

Natlnal Library - - - - - 0.7 - 0.7

Preeldent*s College - - - 2.5 - 2.5 8.4 - 8.4

Global Manpower - - - - - - 11.5 8.5 3.0

David Rose Sch - - - - - - 0.1 - 0.1

Carnegie Sch @f Home Econa - - - - - 0.1 - 3.5

School Building CRegion.) 0.3 - 0.3 0.1 - 0.1 3.5 - 3.5

Subtotal 2D.0 11.0 9.0 16.6 4.8 11.8 34.3 8.8 25.5

Culture

Cultural Centre 0.1 - 0.1 - - - 0.3 - 0.3

Husem- Developmnt - - - - - - 0.1 - 0.1

Zoological Development - - - - - - 0.2 - 0.2

Allied Arts - - - - - - 0.2 - 0.2

geyfesta - - - 0.1 - 0.1 - - -

Festival & Exhibitions - - - - - - 0.2 - 0.2

Subtotal 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 1.0 - 1.0

Healtb

Referral Hospital System 9.3 1.6 1.9 7.7 5.6 1.1 2.7 2.0 0.7

Georgetown Hospital 0.1 - 0.1 0.4 - 0.4 - - -

Children Rehab Centre 0.1 - 0.1 0.3 - 0.3 - - -

Const of New Mortuary/La Patinence 0.1 - 0.1 - - - - - -

Medex Program 2.7 2.7 - 0.8 CA 0.2 2.5 2.0 0.5

Leprosy Control Unit 0.2 0.2 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 -

Weaning Food Subsidy 0.2 - 0.2 0.3 - 0.3 0.4 - 0.4

lnst Strengtheming HON (1B) 0.9 0.9 - - - - - - -

Hospital BuIldinge (Regions) 0.1 - 0.1 - - - 2.5 - 2.5

Enviro_ental Sanitation (Region) 0.1 - 0.1 - - - 0.5 - O.S

Subtotal 13.8 5.4 2.6 9.6 7.3 2.3 8.7 4.1 4.6

- 131 -

Page 5 of 7

Table 5.7: UTANA - PUBLIC SECTOR IWVESTMENT PROGRAM (Contined)

COS MilIion)

19U3 1964 Budget 1985

Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local

Water Supply

Force Account Work OS - O.5 - - - - - -

Wells In Rural Areas 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2

Linden Water Supply 3.S - 3.5S - - - - - -

Rehab G'town Sewerage 0.9 - 09 2.9 2.0 0.9 4.3 2.9 1.4Water Supply (RegIona) - - - - - - 4.5 - 4.S

Hydrometerology 0.2 - 0.2 0.1 - 0.1 0.4 - 0.4

Artlssnal Well Mon Repeal - - - 0.3 - 0.3 0.3 - 0.3

Subtotal 5.4 0.2 5.2 4.0 2.6 1.4 9.9 3.1 6.5

Housing

Land Devi & House Conat 0. - 0.6 0.1 - 0.1 - - -

Contributlon to Mortgage

Finance Bank 1.0 - 1.0 0.5 - O.S 1.6 - 1.6

Wismer/Rockstone Helng Devi 0.2 - 0.2 - - - - - -

Land Development - - _ - - - 0.1 _ 0.1

Land Cortificatlon - - - - - - 0.2 - 0.2

Subtotal 2.0 - 2.0 0.6 - 0.6 1.9 - 1 .9

other

Bulidlngs -GCF 2.2 - 2.2 1.9 - 1.9 3.5 3.5

Eqipment - CDF 0.8 - 0.8 3.1 - 3.1 10.0 - 10.0GMG 30.0 - 30.0 33.0 - 33.0 5.0 - 5.0General Registrer Office - - - 0.3 - 0.3 0.7 - 0.7

Police Statln A Buildings 1.0 - 1.0 1.0 - 1.0 4.0 - 4.0

Land Transport Equlp-Police 0.3 - 0.3 0.1 - 0.1 1.5 - ISWeter Transport Equip-Police - - - - - 0.1 - 0.1

Equlpment-PolIce - - - - - - 0.6 - 06

Office Equipment-Police - - - - - - 0.1 - 0.1

Fire * Ambulance Stations - - - 0.1 - 0.1 2.0 - 2.0

Land Transport-Fire Dept 0.5 - 0.5 - - 2.1 - 2.1Water Transport-Fire Oept - - - - - - 1.0 - 1.0

Communicatlon Equip-Fire Dept 0.3 - 0.3 - - - 0.1 - 0.1Tools * Equip-Fire Dept - - - 0.1 - 0.1 0.5 - OS

Builidings-Prlson Dept 0.3 - 0.3 0.4 - 0.4 1.0 - 1.0

Land * Weter Equip-Prison Dept - - - - - - 0.3 - 0.3

Other Equip-Prieon Dept - - - - - - 0.2 - 0.2Agric Equip-Prison Dept - - - 0.1 - 0.1 0.2 - 0.2

Gov't Buildings 2.6 - 2.6 1.9 - 1.9 4.5 - 4.5

Overseas Residents/Offices 0.2 - 0.2 0.4 - 0.4 0.2 - 0.2

Fern ture * Equlpmnt 0.3 - 0.3 - - 3.1 - 3.1Mitslkal Dewl Authority 0.3 - 0.3 - - - - -

IAST 4.0 - 4.0 4.2 - 4.2 6.2 2.5 3.7

- 132 -

Page 6 of 7

Table 5.7& CUYANA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM (Continued)

WCS Million)

1985 1984 Budget 1985

Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local

Other (Conted)

National Bureau of Standards - - - 0.1 - 0.1 -

SPS/Natlonal Planning Project 2.9 0.7 2.2 3.6 1.0 2.6 2.6 1.1 I.S

National Data M1ngt Authority 0.6 - 0.6 1.0 - 1.0 0.1 - 0.1

Specialist Assistance 0.8 - 0.8 1.5 - 1.5 2.5 - 2.5

Minor Davi Works 1.4 - 1.4 1. - 1.8 1.5 - 1.s

Guyana Management Institute 0.4 - 0.4 0.5 - 0.5 - -

Acquisition of Property 1.8 - 1.8 1.3 - 1.3 - - -

National Projects 2.3 - 2.3 - - - - -

Export Promotion Council - - - 0.2 - 0.2 - - -

Patrol Launch - - - - - - 0.9 - 0.9

Guystac Consultancy lnd. Unit - - - - - - 1.1 - 1.1Buildings (Reglons) 0.1 - 0.1 - - - 1.7 - 1.7

Subtotal 53.1 0.7 S2.4 56.6 1.0 55.6 57.3 3.6 53.7

Financial Transfors

Capital Contribution to CAIBANK 12.0 12.0 - 19.5 19.5 - 45.4 45.4 -

Contribution to Int. FInancIal inst 4.1 - 4.1 4.8 - 4.8 3.5 - 3.5

Guyana Transport Service Ltd 1.S - 1.5 0.4 - 0.4 3.2 - 3.2

Transfers to Public Corporatlons 91.0 - - 333.5 - 333.5 - - -

Llabillties 41.2 - 41.2 28.9 - 28.9 17.0 - 17.0Project Developmnt Assistance - - - - - - 23.2 22.1 1.1

Subtotal 149.8 12.0 137.8 387.1 19.5 367.6 92.3 67.5 24.8

GRANO TOTAL 365.7 87.6 278.1 607.5 89.8 517.7 523.2 264.4 258.5

SUMMARY

Agriculture 65.9 38.9 26.8 71.3 36.7 34.6 146.7 93.2 53.5

Forestry 12.0 12.0 - 18.5 1.2 17.3 44.9 37.7 7.2

Flshorloe 7.7 - 7.7 S.8 - 5.8 24.9 21.2 3.7ManufacturIng 3.8 - 3.8 4.3 - 4.3 8.4 1.7 6.7

Mining and Ouarrying - - - 3.2 2.0 1.2 - - -

TourIsm 0.2 - 0.2 - - - - - -

Power 5.0 2.9 2.1 11.4 7.4 4.0 47.2 21.7 25.5

Roads Infreatructure 18.8 - - 14.7 - - 30.2 - -

Trensport & Communications 8.1 4.5 3.6 3.7 - 3.7 15.5 1.8 13.7

Education 20.0 1 .0 9.0 16.6 4.8 11.8 34.3 8.8 25.5

Culture 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 1.0 - 1.0

Health 13.8 5.4 2.6 9.6 7.3 2.3 8.7 4.1 4.6

Water Supply 5.4 0.2 5.2 4.0 2.6 1.4 9.9 3.1 6.S

Housing 2.0 - 2.0 0.6 - 0.6 1.9 - 1.9

Otbhr (Admin., etc.) 53.1 0.7 52.4 56.6 1.0 55.6 57.3 3.6 53.7

Financial Transfers 149.8 12.0 137.8 357.1 19.5 367.6 92.3 67.5 24.6

TOTAL 365.7 87.6 278.1 607.5 89.8 517.7 523.2 264.4 258.8

- 133 -

Pag. 7 of 7 p,ags

Tebia 5.7, GUYANA - PUBLIC SEGTOR INVCSTMENT PROORAM (Csnslud.il

(Go MI II Ion)

Actual Pral. budget

ils7 3s50 353o 1312 19S3 1954 1935

B. NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC ENTERPRISES

Agricilture. Forestry A Flablag 23.0 25.2 23.5 31.7 41.5 35.6 59.5

guysna Suger Corporation 13.3 14.0 IS.9 15.1 5.4 19.0 3.1

Livestock Del.vopment Corp. 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.0 2.0

Guyana Rice Board 3.9 5.6 3.4 4.7 6.0 3.4 10.7

Guyana Narkettal Corp. 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Guyana Timbers Ltd. 4.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.1 0.3 2.2

Guyana Flibhrias Ltd. 0.1 0.6 3.0 14.3 z5.1 11.9 21.5

Industry 11-. 21.0 33.5 22.2 11.0 15.6 31.6

Guyana Llqor Corp. 5.5 5.9 7.6 1.5 1.4 0.4 1.5

sel A PackaLging C. 0.3 I.s 24.5 S.7 0.6 4.9 4.0

Guyana Pharoatastical Corp. 4.2 l0.1 4.3 4.7 3.4 6.0 4.0

CGyana Stockfead Ltd. 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.3 1 .2

Oamarara Sugar Tarminal& 0.1 0.1 0.1 e.0 0.e 0.4 0.0

Guyana Nichmem Co. Ltd. - - 0.2 0.0 0.1 o.s 0.0

Guyana National Eng. Corp. 1.) 2.0 2.5 1.6 4.9 4.9 3.2

Ndtiosea Point Co. Ltd. - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6

Sanata Taetiles Ltd. - - - 0.2 0.3 0.2 4.0

Sacaneab Iinueatr leas Ltd. - - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0

Laathercraft Ltd. - - - Z.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Mining a Onarrying 64.0 4*.0 21.7 1l.0 1.0 3.0 45.0

tldco/Guymtno 64.0 43.0 21.0 13.0 3.0 3.0 45.0

CGycsnstruct l.Z 7.9 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Power 4.6 11.5 - 13.9 5.1 3.9 39.6

Guyana Electricity Corp. 4.6 11.t - 13.9 S.1 3.I 33.6

Tranaport S Comaualcationa 5.9 6.5 12.0 3.7 5.0 20.5 84.1

Cuyana Transport Ser.ices 0.4 0.4 3.3 1.7 1.3 0.3 3.2

Guyana Airways Corp. 0.2 1.E 2.0 0.3 2.6 3.6 75.9

Guyana National Shipplig Corp. 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Guyana Neattonsi Newspapers Ltd. 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 G.i 0.0

Guyana Broadcasting Corp. - 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.) 7.0 5.0

Pout Office Corp. - - - 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0

Ceysns Tnlcoemunicatlons Corp. 5.0 4.0 4.6 0.9 1.7 6.1 0.0

Guyana National Printers Ltd. - - 0.9 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0

Others 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.6 2.5 1.3 3.4

Guyana Oil Corp. 0.5 0.5 0.4 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.2

Cuyana Stores Ltd. 1.0 1.3 0.e 0.5 0.3 0.3 2.6

Trading group 1. GNTC 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6

Notionil Insurance Schema 0.3 0.1 3.0 0.9 1.2 3.0 0.0

TOTAL 1I1.5 116.2 10S.5 95.0 67.2 50.5 263.3_ ~~~~~~~~~~~~...... .. .. ...... ..... , ......... ........ ..... .... ,

C. SUMMARY, CAPITAL FORMATION

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT */ 159.5 254.3 347.5 232.6 233.7 232.9 484.6

NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC

ENTERPRISES 1111.5 316.2 105.5 93.0 67.2 50.5 263.0

PUBLIC SECTOR CAPITAL

EXPENOTURE 301.0 370.5 453.6 325.6 300.9 313.7 747.6

0I Excludes tl) financial transfera to publc eanterpriees. Ci) from 1960 onaards. GCS

*capits3 expendituresg and *1il expenditoren on corperstione In Part (A) catered far In

Part *e).

Seorces State Plnning Secratariat.

Joesaryl/Februry 1955

- 134 -

Teble 5.8O GUYANA - SUNMARY OF PUBLIC SECTOR CAPITAL

EXPENDITURES BY SECTOR

Actual Prel. Budget

1978 1979 1980 1951 1982 1983 1984 1935

A. 9S Mlillon

Productive Sectors 111.6 177.3 237.2 263.3 192.3 138.1 156.6 3S5.9

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 65.6 78.6 120.7 177.0 152.9 122.1 129.5 271.6

Industry 20.0 ;4.6 65.5 62.7 25.5 14.8 22.9 39.3

Mining & aOurrying 26.0 64.1 SO.0 22.1 13.1 1.0 4.2 45.0

Tourlis - - 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.2 - -

Physical Infrastructure 72.7 58.6 70.5 115.7 83.8 38.6 48.2 193.7

Power 29.6 10.3 29.3 23.4 28.1 S.9 9.3 69.0

Transport end Comenicetions 43.1 48.3 41.2 92.3 S5.7 32.7 38.9 124.7

Social Infrastructure 14.9 27.4 41.2 51.9 44.6 41.3 30.9 55.8

Education A Culture 11.4 19.1 27.1 27.2 20.9 20.1 16.7 35.3

Health 1.6 3.7 8.1 10.7 12.5 13.8 9.6 B.7

Water Supply - 1.4 2.9 6.9 5.3 5.4 4.0 9.9

Housing 1.9 3.2 3.1 7.1 5.9 2.0 0.6 1.9

Other 22.0 37.7 21.6 22.7 5.1 82.9 78.0 142.2

TOTAL 221.2 301.0 370.5 453.6 325.6 300.9 313.7 747.6

=..... o.=...... ...... .=..a.... ..... w M..... ... 0.00.............. ...... ............. ...... ..........

B. Share of Total CZ)

Productive Sectors SO.S 58.9 64.0 58.0 59.0 45.9 52.8 47.6

Agriculture. Forestry & Fishing 29.6 26.1 32.6 39.0 46.9 40.6 41.3 36.3

Industry 9.0 11.5 17.7 13.8 7.8 4.9 7.3 5.2

Hining & Quarrying 11.8 21.3 13.5 4.9 4.0 0.3 4.2 6.1

Tour Is. - - 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 - -

PhysIcal Infrastructure 32.9 19.5 19.0 25.5 25.7 12.B 1S.4 25.9

PDwer 13.4 3.4 7.9 5.2 8.6 2.0 3.0 9.2

Transport & Communications 19.5 16.1 11.1 20.3 17.1 10.8 12.4 16.7

Social infrastructure 6.7 9.1 11.1 11.4 13.7 13.7 9.8 7.S

Education & Culture 5.2 6.3 7.3 6.0 6.4 6.7 5.3 4.7

Health 0.1 1.2 2.2 2.4 3.8 4.6 3.1 1.2

Water Supply - 0.5 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.3

Housing 0.1 1.1 0.8 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.3

Other 9.9 12.5 5.9 5.1 1.6 27.6 22.0 13.0

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 tOO.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

-M.'... .. =.o.... =.. an , ..... a.. .... .. .... mamma.... saa.... ......... ......... ......... ........

Sourcet Based on Table 5.7.

January/February 1985

- 135 -

Table 6.ls GUYANA - SUMNARY ACCOUNTS OF THE MONETARY AUTHORITIrS

C Milion)

December 31

1977 1971 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

Net InternoatIonal Reserves -105.3 -64.3 -167.5 -399.6 -470.1 -614.8 -811.6 -1453.8

Assets 59.6 145.6 44.7 32.4 20.7 30.2 19.4 24.3

LIabilItIes -164.7 -212.9 -232.2 -432.0 -490.8 -645.0 -831.0 -1478.1

Net Domeatic Credit 302.8 339.6 459.5 703.5 787.2 1243.9 1268.5 2241.1

Pubilc Sector (net) 337.6 386.0 541.4 819.9 920.3 1452.9 1616.7 2384.8

Central Government (net) (346.1) (392.9) (550.9) (828.4) (933.6) (1467.3) (1629.4) (2399.2)

Treasury Bills /335.3/ /390.2/ /557.0/ /809.0/ /842.5/ /1398.8/ /2026.0/ /1840.3/

Debentures /5.9/ /5.9/ /2.2/ /2.2/ /1.6/ /0.4/ /0.4/ /580.4/

Advances /4.8/ /--I I--/ /17.2/ f59.5/ /68.1/ I-/ /-/

Deposits /--f /-3.2/ /-38.3/ /--I 1--, 1--I /-397.0/ /-21.5/

Special Funds (-6.1) (-6.2) t-6.4) t-6.41 (-6.5) (-6.5) (-6.5) (-6.5)

Social Security and

Pension Funds (not) t-2.4) (-0.7) (-3.1) t-2.11) -6.8) (-7.9) t-6.2) (-7.9)

Official Capital and Surplus -11.7 -12.7 -14.2 -17.3 -21.5 -25.9 (-30.2) -32.6

Unclassified Cost) -23.1 -33.7 -67.7 -99.0 -111.6 -183.1 -318.0 -111.1

SDR Allocation Account 20.1 22.5 31.5 39.0 50.7 48.1 45.6 45.6

Liabilities to Commercial BSaks 34.6 96.3 92.2 98.0 80.2 350.1 142.4 40S.9

Currency 9.6 10.8 11.0 11.9 12.2 14.5 15.5 21.4

Deposits (net of advances) 25.0 32.4 12.7 15.8 -65.5 57.6 -266.9 -80.2

External Payments Arrears Deposlts -- 53.1 68.5 70.3 133.5 278.1 393.8 464.7

Currency In Circulation 142.8 156.4 148.3 167.0 186.1 230.9 266.9 335.8

Currency Issue 152.4 167.2 S9.3 178.9 198.3 245.4 284.4 357.2

L_ess Holdings of Commercial Benke -9.6 -10.6 -11.0 -11.9 -12.2 -14.5 -15.5 -21.4

Source: Bonk of Guyana.

January/February 1985

- 136 -

Table 6.2a GUYANA - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE COMMERCIAL BANKS

(ON Millien)

December 31

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1904

Net International Reserves -5.8 -15.9 -16.7 -11.1 -30.9 -45.7 -39.1 -33.a

Assets 21.2 33.8 55.9 59.0 36.5 30.7 27.4 28.8

Liabilitles -27.0 -49.7 -72.6 -70.1 -67.4 -76.4 -66.5 -62.6

Claims n Bank of Guyana (not) 34.2 101.5 91.8 103.9 82.4 361.1 149.9 405.4

Currency 9.6 10.8 11.0 11.9 12.2 14.5 15.5 21.4

Oepoesits (Net of Advances) 24.6 37.6 12.3 21.8 -63.4 67.2 -259.8 -80.7

External Paymants Deposits - 53.1 68.5 70.2 133.6 279.4 374.2 464.7

Net Domestic Credit 393.9 439.0 534.6 644.5 870.3 978.1 1511.0 1511.2

Public Sector CNet) 265.8 291.0 331.6 399.6 573.0 648.8 1093.5 1056.2

Ceantrl Government (Net) (185.3) (210.3) (189.6) (200.8) (228.93 (399.9) (562.4) (613.3)

Treasury ill1s /170.8/ /198.2/ /190.1/ /210.9/ /238.0/ /402.2/ /563.0/ /615.0/

Dbentures /16.4/ /14.5/ /8.5/ /S.S/ /9.6/ /13.0/ /11.8/ /10.4/

Loans I-- /0.7/ /O.I/ I--/ /1.7/ /2.4/ /2.9/ /4.3/

Deposits /-.9/ /-3.1/ /-9.1/ /-15.7/ f-20.4/ /-17.7/ /15.4/ /-46.4/

Social Security Fund (Net) (-7.2) (-7.7) C-8.3) (-9.1) C-13.31 (-14.8) /-16.6/ /-19.0/

State and Local Governments (Net) (3.7) (4.3) (3.3) C3.7) (5.8) (4.7) (1.5) (0.1)

Official Enterprises CNet) (64.0) (84.1) (147.0) C204.2) (351.6) (259.0) (546.4) (461.8)

Credit /118.8/ /121.9/ /172.6/ /229.3/ /375.7/ /306.3/ /613.5/ /S56.3/

Deposits /-34.8/ /-37.8/ /-25.6/ /-2S.1/ /-24.1/ /-47.3/ /67.1/ /94.5/

Credit to Private Sector 113.0 121.1 162.7 195.8 262.1 313.3 376.7 464.7

Interbank Float (net) 4.4 4.2 5.3 4.4 3.0 3.9 9.9 0.4

Unclassified (net) 10.7 22.7 35.0 44.7 32.3 7.1 31.1 -10.1

LIabilities to Rest of

Financial System 11.7 26.0 22.2 57.0 56.1 92.6 119.7 164.6

Deposits 19.4 27.9 24.1 59.2 62.5 95.2 124.6 166.3

Loses Advances -0.7 -1.9 -1.9 -2.2 -4.4 -2.6 -4.9 -1.7

Deposits on External

Payments Arrears - 56.3 69.4 74.8 137.1 288.8 398.3 465.4

Liabilties to Private Sector 403.6 442.3 518.1 605.5 726.6 912.1 1103.8 1252.8

Monetary Llabilities 395.3 433.6 504.2 587.2 702.2 872.8 1048.1 1189.5

Deomnd eposlts (79.2) (66.1) (79.2) (91.5) (100.8) (105.41 (131.2) (160.1)

Cashlers Checks and

Bank Acceptanesn (32.0) (31.0) (23.0) (24.4) (27.3) (41.63 (43.1) (53.7)

Time *ad Savings Deposits (284.1) (336.5) (402.0) (471.3) (574.1) (725.8) (873.8) (975.7)

Private Capital and Surplus 8.3 8.7 13.9 18.6 24.4 39.2 55.7 63.3

Sources Bank of Guyana.

January/February 1985

- 137 -

Table 6.3: GUYANA - SUMUAY ACCOUNTS OF THE MONETARY SYSTEM 1/

COS Million)

0oa"er 31

1977 1978 1979 1380 Iflo 1982 183 1984

Net International Reserves -111.1 -00.2 -204.2 -410.7 -501.0 -660.5 -850.7 -1487.6

Assets 80.8 182.4 IOO.6 91.4 S7.2 60.9 46.5 53.1

LIabilitles -191.9 -262.6 -304.8 -502.1 -555.2 -721.4 -697.5 -1540.7

Nat Domustic Credit 696.2 783.8 993.7 1353.9 1659.6 2228.0 2787.0 3751.6

Public Sector Cnot) 603.3 677.1 873.0 1219.5 1491.9 2102.1 2710.2 3441.0

Centrel Oovernmnt (net) (531.3) (603.2) (740.5) (1029.1) C1162.5) (18672) (2191.8) (3012.5)

Treasury Bills /506.1, /258.4/ /777.1/ /1019.9/ /1060.4/ /1501.0/ /2589.0/ /2455.3/

Debentures /22.3/ /20.4/ /10.7/ /7.7/ /11.1/ /13.4/ /12.2/ /590.8/

Advances /4.8/ /0.7/ /0.1/ /17.2/ /89.5/ /68.1/ /-/ #~/

Oopoaits /-1.9/ /-6.3/ /47.4/ /-15.7/ /-20.4. 1-17.7/ /-412.4/ /33.6/

Specimi Funds (-6.1) (-6.2) (-6.4) C-6.4) (4.5) (t.5) (-6.5) (-6.5)Social Security and Pension Funds (-9.6) (-B.4) (-11.4) (-11.2) (-20.1) (-22.7) t-23.0) (-26.9)State and Local Governmnts Cnot) C3.7) (4.3) (3.35 C3.7) (5.B) (4.7) (1.S) (O.1)

Official Enterprises (net) (84.0) (84.2) (147.01 (204.3) (351.6) (259.0) (546.4) (461.d)

Official Capital and Surplus -11.7 -12.7 -14.2 -17.3 -21.5 -25.9 -30.2 -33.6

Credit to Private Sector 113.0 121.1 162.7 19S.8 262.1 313.3 376.7 464.7

Interbank Float Cnot) 3.9 9.3 4.9 10.2 5.1 14.9 17.3 0.4

Unclassif led (not) -12.4 -11.0 -32.7 -54.3 -78.0 -176.8 -287.0 -121.9

5DR Allocation Account 20.1 22.5 31.5 39.0 50.7 48.1 4S.6 45.6

Liabilities to Rest of Financial System 16.7 26.0 22.2 57.0 58.1 92.6 119.7 164.6

Deposits 19.4 27.9 24.1 59.2 62.5 95.2 124.6 166.3

Less Advances -0.7 -1.9 -1.9 -2.2 -4.4 -2.6 4.9 -1.7

Deposits on External

Payments Arrears - 56.3 69.4 74.a 137.1 253.8 398.3 465.4

Liabilities to Private Sector 5463 598.8 666.4 772.7 912.7 1143.1 1372.7 1568.6

Monetary Llabilitios 254.0 253.5 250.5 282.8 314.2 378.0 443.2 549.6

Currency In Circulation (142.8) (156.4) (148.3) (166.9) (186.1) (231.03 (268.9) (335.8)

Demrnd Deposits (79.2) 166.1) (79.2) (91.5) (100.8) (105.4) (131.2) (160.1)

Cashiers Checks and Bank

Acceptance* (32.0) (31.0) (23.0) (24.4) (27.3) (41.6) (43.1) (53.7)

Tim and Savings Deposits 284.1 336.6 402.0 471.3 574.1 725.8 573.8 975.7

Private Capital and Surplus 8.3 8.7 13.9 18.6 24.4 39.3 55.7 63.3

a/ Cooprises Bank of Guyana and Comerclsl Banks.

Sources Bank of Guyana.

January/February 1985

- 138 -

Table 6.4s GUYANA - NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES OF THE BANKING SYSTEN

(USs milion)

December 31

1980 191 1962 1983 1984

Net Internatlonal Reserves -206.5 -267.4 -362.2 -552.4 -663.4

Cemmercial Banks -4.4 -10.3 -15.2 -13.0 -6.0

Foreign Asaets of EDF Fund -- 1.3 -- -_ __

Net Forelgn Assets of

Sank of Guyana -202.1 -258.4 -347.0 -539.4 -655.4

Greos Foreign Assets of

Senk of guyana 12.7 6.9 0.t1 6.2 5.7

LIabilitles -214.8 -265.3 -357.1 -545.6 -661.1

Short-term llablilitie

of Bank of Guyans '/ (-169.4) (-126.9) (-107.63 (-93.3) C-59.6)

Trinidad and Tobago Deposit /-20.0/ /--/ I--I I--I 1--

Kuwalt Deposit /-11.0/ /-10.7/ /-10.4/ /-10.2/

Brazil Deposit /-3.0/ /-3.0/ /-2.5/ /-2.5/ --I

Libya Deposit 1-10.0/ /-10.0/ /-10.0/ 1- -_

Samuel Nontague /7.0J /--I I--I '--' '--'

Covered trensectlona --I I--I /-1.5/ I--I '--'

Nova Scotia Deposit I--I /--I /-0.4/ /--I /--I

E-F (conversion) -- I I--I /-1.0/ /- __

CNCF /-32.4/ I--/ I--I I--I 1--I

IMF 1-86.0/ /-86.2/ /-81.8/ /-69.6/ /-59.6/

Trinidad and Tobago

Bilateril Account /--I I--i /--/ 1-6.6/ -

CDR/Guyana

Liquidation Account 1--I I--I I--I /-4.4/ -

Liabilities on account of

Arrear I (-45.4) (-136.4) (-249.5) (-450.6) (-601.5)

Commercial Arrears /-29.3/ /-45.7/ /-96.3/ /-132.7/ /-128.7/

Sank of Cuyman Debt 1-16.1/ /-80.7/ /-124.0/ /-221.4/ /-332.5S

Government Debt J--J /-10.0/ /-29.2/ /-96.5/ /-140.3/

a/ Excludes short-term liabilities of the Sank of CGyana that are In arrears.

bl Includes principal and Interest In arrears.

Sources Bank of Guyana.

January/February 1985

- 139 -

Table 6.5: GUYANA - EXTERNAL PAYMENT ARREARS

(USs =iiilon]

Doecmber 31

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

Total Arrears 45.4 136.4 249.5 450.6 625.4

Comoerclal and Other

Current Payments 29.3 45.7 9 6 .3 a, 13 2 .7 a, 154.0a/

Bank of Guyana Arrears 16.1 50.7 124.0 221.4 332.5

Bilateral Deposits 3.4 29.6 34.2 48.5 64.2

Prlncipal C--) (20.0) (20.0) (30.0) C42.7)

Trinidad and Tobago i--I /20.0/ /20.0; /20.0/ /20.0/

Bank of Libya 1-- /--- /10.0/ /10.0/

Bank of Kuwait 1--I /--I 1--I 1--I /10.2/

Bank of Brazil I--I I--I /-/ // /2.5/

Interest C3.4) (9.6) C14.2) (18.5) C21.5)

Trinidad and Tobago /3.4/ /9.1/ /10.9/ /12.7/ /14.4f

Bank of Libya 1--I /0.5/ /2.2/ /3.9/ /4.7/

Bank of Kuwait 1--I /--/ /.l /1.8/ /2.0/

lank of Brazil 1--I - 1--I /0.1/ /0.4/

CARICOM Clearing Facility 12.7 51.1 85.8 106.6 109.7

Principal (12.73 (51.1) (83.6) (96.5) C96.5)

Interest C--) (--) C2.2) (10.1) C13.2)

TrinIdad and Tobago

Bilateral Account -- -- -- 54.5 146.9

Principal C--) () t) (49.4) (134.8)

Inter--t C--) C--) C--) (S.1) (12.1)IMF -- 4.0 11.8 11.7

Prlncipal C--) C--) (--) (7.6) (11.7)

Interest C--) (--C (4.0) (4.2) -

Public Sector Dobt -- 10.0 29.2 96.5 138.9

Principal -- 9.8 21.8 74.9 108.7

Interest -- 0.2 7.4 21.6 30.2

a/ Arrears on account of merchandise and otber current paymenta witbout local

currency deposits are estimated at about USS30 mIllion In 1982, about US$40

mililon In 1983 and US$44.6 million In 1984.

Sourcess Bank of Guyana. State Planaing Secretariat, and IMF staff estimates.

January/February 1985

- 140 -

Table 6.6: GUYANA - SELECTED INTEREST RATES

(Percent per annn.)

December

1977 1978 1979 1980 1951 1982 1983 1954

Local Rates

Prime Lending Rate 7.50 9.50 11.50 13.50 13.50 IS.00 15.00 15.00

Bank rate 6.50 6.50 10.50 12.50 12.50 14.00 14.00 14.00

Maxlmu Charge on Comaercial

seek Daficlanclas 12.20 12.20 12.20 12.20 12.20 14.00 14.00 14.00

Treasury Bills 5.88 7.60 9.72 11.62 11.62 12.75 12.70 12.75

Government Bond Rate 7.00 8.00 9.00 9.00 11.00 14.50 14.50 14.50

Smll S.wl. Rate 5.50 8.50 8.50 10.50 10.50 11.50 11.50 al.50

Tlme Deposm s

3 months 4.00 7.00 9.00 11.00 11.00 12.00 12.00 12.00

6 menths 4.50 7.50 9.50 11.50 11.50 12.S0 12.50 12.50

12 months 5.50 5.50 10.50 12.50 12.50 13.00 13.00 13.00

lterest Paid on Deposits

Against Payments Arrears

with Com_rcial Banks - 7.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 1 2 . 5 0 a, 1 2 . 0O/ 12.50

lntereatlon-g Rates bl

Eurodollar rate

CLoadon) 7.19 11.56 14.50 17.75 13.75 9.52 10.14 9.S6

Treasury Bill Rate Ins

United Kingdom 6.37 11.57 IS.90 13.07 14.51 9.90 8.87 9.23

United States 6.06 9.12 12.07 15.66 10.93 8.01 8.93 8.79

Canoda ... 10.46 13.66 14.41 16.33 9.80 9.71 10.S0

Jamaica 7.29 8.42 9.S6 9.91 9.97 9.26 12.11 -

TrlnIdad and Tobago 3.93 3.25 3.10 3.06 3.0S 3.05 3.19 3.72

a/ Bank of Ceyasa pays 132 on dpepsits on payments arrears hold by the coiercial banks with the Control Bank.

bl Daily average for the month on Instramts of three-mnth maturity. Rates for 1904 refer to average up to

November.

Soureass Bank of Cuyana, and IMF - IntereatIonal Financial Statistics.

January/February 198S

- 141 -

Table 6.7: GUYANA - COMMERCIAL SANK CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR

AND PUBLIC ENTERPRISES

(CC million)

DeCember

1977 1978 1979 1980 9sa8 1952 a* 1953 1954

Total Greos Crodit Extedned 231.8 243.0 335.3 425.1 637.8 619.6 990.1 979.6

Credit to Private Sector 113.0 121.1 162.7 195.5 262.1 313.3 376.7 447.3

Agrliultare 11.0 11.1 14.1 14.4 17.7 18.7 20.6 32.6

Sugarcane (0.3) (O.4) (0.2) (0.6) C1.03 (1.4) (1.4) (O.6)

Rice paddy (5.9) (S. (7.2) (7.2) (7.71 17.7) (8.2) (7.9)Other (4.8) (5.2) (6.7) C6.62 C9.2) (9.6) M11.1) (24.1)

Nieing 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 : . 1.4 3.8

Timber and sawulliimg 3.6 5.2 5.3 7.3 L.7 11.3 13.8 18.S

Constructlon 8.1 7.1 13.0 17.3 ZS.9 33.6 37.1 63.6

"Nauectarieg 11.1 13.7 22.5 24.2 36.2 32.S 36.6 50.3Sugar (-I (-3 (-) (0.2) C-) (-) (0.5) (2.7)

Other (11.1) (13.7) (22.5) (24.0) C36.2) (32.5) (36.1) (47.6)

Tranapert and cemmuleatlons 2.4 1.7 2.6 1.3 I.S 2.8 S.0 13.0

listribution 18.3 19.0 22.6 30.4 32.6 42.0 61.6 6a.8

Housing and real estate I6.9 18.2 20.5 19.8 21.9 24.0 28.0 36.1Personai Cexcluding bouslg) 18.7 24.0 32.7 45.9 A5.0 74.3 84.9 74.4Cooperstives 3.8 2.5 s.8 S.2 6.9 9.1 13.3 14.4

Services and other 18.5 18.0 23.0 29.7 52.1 64.S 74.4 71.7

Credit to Public Enterprises 118.8 121.9 172.6 229.3 375.7 306.3 613.5 532.3

Sugar 24.0 23.8 19.9 3S.3 81.9 S1.5 186.9 136.6

Bauxite 3.1 6.2 34.4 39.9 116.9 95.7 27S.4 242.4Timber *nd saw*iillng 1.7 0.8 4.0 5.0 S.8 7.0 8.7 -

Electricity 13.6 15.4 22.9 26.4 26.1 27.9 23.9 29.2

Transport and coemunications 7.7 0.7 O.S 6.6 6.7 1.3 0.8 II.SToIecommunica tlone - 8.0 8.9 - - - 6.0 -

Distribution (including rice) 6S.3 63.4 67.6 87.8 97.5 94.0 U4.4 90.3Other b/ 3.4 3.6 14.4 26.3 40.8 29.0 22.4 22.3

s/ In August 1982 the Central Goverms nt made equity contributions to sone corporatlons amounting

to 08475 mlIion, to pay their overdrafts with the Cooperatlve Bank.

bl Includes electricity.

Sources Benk of Guyana.

January/February 19S5

- 142 -

Table 6.gs UYMA - CE0tlAL COVEYUT BISED DElr W HOILME

Outst adl-g an of Dec_er 31

Is7" 1976 i9" 196 196 1962 1963 1964

Total bonded debt 653.9 I103S.2 1,312.5 160.6 I AMA 2,775.7 3,620.6 4S44.0

Treasry lills 567.6 706.0 916.5 1,1S 1.2 1245.7 2s0o.3 2,966.7 2,380.2

Banking syst_ SK.1 516.4 771.1 1,019.3 I ,080.5 1601.0 2,569.0 2,511.4

Beak of guyan (335.3) C390.2) (5867.0) (609.0 (I 42.5) (1,33.) (O2,026.) (1.87.7)

Corclal baks (170.C) (136.2) (190.1) (210.9) (2.0) (402.2) (563.0) C(23.7)

Other flasclal laterm_dlrles 10.1 12.9 8.3 8.9 11.7 31.3 65.S 106.6

New l.lidlng Society (4.2) C2.0) (3.4) 3.31 (8.7) C17.S) C24.0) (64.7)

Local lnmemree copnies (S.7) (4.7) CI.4) (1.63 C4.6) (1.3) C17.3) (36.1)

Trust c_ pslea (0.2) (0.C) (0.5) (-3 (0.11 1-) (0.7) (O.2)

Pasion funds (-) (-) (-) (3.6) (4.1) (6.1) (21.9) (1.2)

Government dsvelopmut buoks 1-) (5.6) 2.S) -) 1-) 1-) CI.7) (2.4)

Public sector 37.6 60.5 78.1 57.6 63.6 87.4 131.1 154.0

National Insurance Scheme .4) (6.3) (S.0) (10.7) C7.4) t2.3) (-) C-)

Special foods (Lebour Welfare Fud) (3.7) C3.7) (3.7) CS.1) 14.6) C4.0) (4.1) (4.1)

Debenture Sinklng Fund (Bunk of

Guyana Trustee) (15.1) (31.5) (46.3) (34.6) (23.51 C45.3) C66.9) (111.4)

Gomernment-ounad corporations (14.6) (16.4) (21.1) (7.4) (22.1) (35.2) (60.1) C36.5)

Private sector 33.8 4.2 53.0 104.6 63.9 149.0 1so0 208.2

Insurance comanIes, .. l... (8.4) C(1.2 (19.0) C20.4) (34.6) (37.5) (25.?) (25.2)

Trust c pnies on behblf of customera (6.3) (6.3) C7.3) (9.1) (9.7) (13.5) tl93) C41.8)

NO=coso lisdted financial l.stitutinna 8(5.3) C(10.31 (7.4) (6.7) (7.1) (1.13 (11.0) (0.)

Commercil bhnks n bebalf of cuate_rs (C.0) I-) C-) C-) (0.5) (6.6) (52.9) (16.S)

Other (resIdual) (7.8) (13.41 (16.6) C66.4) (32.0) (86.3) (61.9) (122.5)

Debentures 263.3 324.3 393.0 456.6 560.4 693.4 642.8 1550.3

Banking syst_ Z2.3 20.4 1. 7.7 11.2 13.4 12.2 590.1

Bunk of CGyan (5.9) (5.9) (2.2) (2.2) (1.6) O0.4) (0.4) (580.0)

Commrcial bnoks (16.4) (14.S) (8.5) (5.5) (9.6) (13.0) (M1." (10.1)

Otlhr fismnelal bnteri_dlarlie 13.1 14.6 16.7 81.9 62.4 85.9 90.3 91.5

1U1 Building Society (5.1) 5.I1) (5.1) (s.1) (5.I) 113.0) (22.1) (23.0)

Local Iasu"nce c omies C7.9) t9.41 (11.4) (12.0) (13.3) (1S.2) (17.S) C21.1)

Pension funds C-) C.) () (64.6) C63.8) (S7.7) (50.7) C47.4)

Government development bunks (0.1) (0.1) (0.21 (0.2) (0.2) I) (-) ()-

Public *wctor 152.6 202.0 261.1 319.1 392.5 SDO0. 62S.4 74S.1

jntlonal insurnc Scheme (115.2) C(47.2) (210.4) (279.9) (340.5) (440.5) (s68.0) C691.6)

Gover_ nt-n*_ed corporations (4.3) (4.3) C4.31 (4.3) '-) '-) (-'

Special funds (6.0) (11.0) (11.0) (11.0) (21.0) (18.9) (18.9) (16.9)

Slnking funds (27.1) (39.S) (35.4) 123.9) (30.9) (41.2) (8.52 (34.4)

Private ector 75.3 87.3 104.5 47.9 74.3 93.5 114.9 123.6

Insurance coanies (12.1) (15.1) (20.0) (2S.3) (.6) (2SA) (49.22 (57.9)

Otbhr (63.2) C72.2) (64.5) 122.6) (55.7) C67.7) (65.7) (65.7

Defense bo_ds 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 13.0 11.3 13.5

a# inclues thb Geyanm HNosing and Develeopmnt Company and *evsral smal credit mnins.

* Estlmted.

Sources Bunk of Cuyan,.

Jn_arylFabrmnry IS95

- 143 -

Table 6.9 GUTAJA - PRIVATE SECTOR HOLDIINS OF SELECTED FINAMCIAL ASSET

CG* ml llin)

Decemr 31

1977 1975 1979 1160 1961 1952 193

Total 772.6 909.S 1,033.0 1,215.6 1,416.7 1,69.0 2,132.9

By type of asset

Claim on finaclal Intermdlmrlea 660.7 773.1 672.5 1,070 5 12C1.0 1 561.6 3 I,1.I

Currency In circulatIon (142.S) (156.4) C148.3) (t66.9) (186.1) (231.0) C6.9)

Demend deposits and cashlers' checks (111.2) (97.1) C102.2) (115.9) (125.1) (147.0) C174.3)

Tim and saviugs deposits (298.2) (352.7) (424.3) (496.7) (610.9) C751.0) (940.8)

Other claims 99.9) (157.9) (163.4) (272.3) C329.6) (353.7) C395.0)

Privata capital and surplus (8.6) (9.0) (14.3) (15.7) (25.& (39.7) (56.1)

Clalm on Central Govrnment 111.9 136.4 160.5 148.1 1SS.7 287.4 297.5

Treasury bills (33.8) (4.2) S3.0) (104.6) (83.9) (124.7) (170.7)

Government debentures (75.3) (87.3) C104.5) 47.9) (74.3) (94.9) (115.1)

Defenn bonds (2.8) (2.9) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) (13.0) (11.)

By Institution

Financial Intermdlaries 660.7 773.1 572.5 1,070.S 1,Z61.0 1,561.6 1535.IBank of Guyane C142.5) l156.4) C148.3) (167.0) (l3.1) C230.9) (265.9)

Cerclal beaks (403.63 (483.1) CS69.8) (605.5) (726.6) (912.1) tl(103.S)

Other Intermediaries C114.3) (133.6) C154.4) (295.1) C35.5) (4356) (462.4)

Central Governmnt 111.9 136.4 160.5 - 146.1 1S5.7 257.4 297.8

As percent of total)

By type of asset

Claim on finnecil intermdlaries 65.S 65.0 84.5 67.8 89.0 64.5 660O

Currency In circulation (18.5) C17.2) (14.4) (13.7) C13.1) C12.5) (12.6)

Demand deposits ad cashiers' checks (14) (10.7) (9.9) (9.5) (9.0) (.01) (8.2)

Time and savings deposits (36.6) C36.5) (41.1) (40.3) (43.0) C42.2) (44.1)

Other claim Clcluding private

capital and surplus) (14.0 C(81.4) (19.1) (23.1) (23.9) C21.6) (21.1)

Claims on Central Government 14.S 15.0 I5.S 12.2 11.0 15.5 14.0

By Institution

Financial intermdlarles 85.5 8.O S4.S 87.8 89.0 4.5 66.O

Bank of Guyana (18.5) C17.2) C14.4) (13.7) 133.1) (12.5) (12.6)

Comrelial banks (52.2) (53.1) (S5.2) (49.7) (S1.2) (493) (51.6)

Other Intermediaries C14.5) (14.7) C14.9) C24.4) (24.7) (22.6) (21.7)

Central Government 14.5 15.0 15.5 12.2 11.0 1S5S 14W0

Source: Bank of CGyana.

January/February 1985

- 144 -

tap I of 2 Sups

TAIE 7.13 WLnA -EWmf OF 9MECII CmiTIE

1974 1m Iism 17n i Ism I= lto al IOU 91113 1

Agrimltal Predcta (VI_In In dwa of lang bo, alum In mllion of dwaydellar. ad nit val_ t. O1je dollwr pwr lorg tSon. ms etlwl Indldlated)

AM rI _ueuei aern a/ 1. 106.2 37 IS13 144. 137.0 Ii2 16.1 160.0 1074 12S.9

Cr_ Yeld per ameClaig bua) 34i 27.0 25.6 2714 252 25.1 27J 3.4 .. -

Probwtlk, f cam 4,t 3,415 4,037 3.1C1 4.210 3872 3.747 4,1x 5,34 3, 5,468

C _qsy _sales 0AS Q2D92 0,5) (2,613) O ) (3.463) 0,Mo0) 0.31) 0.3r7 0.01 C31)

Iedupedt a(538 (51) sUll) 141S) 1506) (49) 30801 CI(51 (L5) (479) (I50)

ProductSn of agwu 3804 X0.4 m.s 241.5 3J 29038 2136 300D 247.0 25IJ 247

SWIMS (4.1) (1325) (149.4) 1N043) (139.7) (1103) (1043) (113.73 (16J) (Ll) -

Au - (177.7) (173.) (111.1) 1137.2) (105.1) (u8.0) (10S.3) (131.1) 12DO) (165.7)

Volo 3Z.4 2S.0 297.0 27.7 297 264.2 2.1 364.6 250.2 213.2 21.1

Valu 2044 413.1 258J 185.7 234.6 230.6 3D7 S.9 63.J 212.1 27.3

Ulit value 941.7 1049.4 671.0 896.0 lIS 872J l ZSJ 115. 1 SI.6 394 1,34.9

Lacl Cuea_tim

vel b1t 30.6 2.3 335 31S 5 31.6 315 76.2 S5 325 75.3 33.0Valw_ 4.4 4.2 5S 6.0 7D 9i 11.3 11.4 0.1 10.7 25.6

SUitt Vs I43.7 103.3 162.2 10.4 257l3 t311 311.1 311.1 3111 294.8 715.2

C-mps In Stocks (VS w) 7.J -13.9 14 2.3 125 2.6 -14.7 -0.3 2.2 2.3

RIC

Ar_ rasped ( ttbd are) 21.4 28 2D7.4 357.4 29925 2185 7D 2.0 22 2395 187.1 26.0

TIeld pu mer (Se tlst 0454 0.61 O. 04 0.S 0ai. 0.70 0.74 0.S 0.79 0.75

Prodctim 153.3 160I 310 2115 162.0 142Z 1S.4 163I0 17S.0 141a 181.1

spring (43.0) 3.0) (6.0) (.7) (C2.41) (6.01) (.2) ns.7) (855.01 (1.1) (2J)

At_ (110.3) 01t01) (62.0) (17.A8) (IISA) 176AI (O.2) 184.3) (9441 (87.5 102.3)

;_ct a by Rlce lewd

Vol_a 771 1244 122.0 14D.0 125D 122D 127.0 12CD 110.4 80.3 0.3

Vale 27.3 J3 8.4 C5 63.4 59.3 S9.0 80.0 al.6 246 65.3Unit Value 54 42348 4295 449.3 507.2 496 5S433 63S.9 80.0 7'9.6 O0I

Vel_ S14 S2D 71D 65.9 145 83.7 79.7 76 34.3 41.7 46.7

Val_ 44D 844 73.6 5.C 964 S0C 87.5 1104D S0.7 64. Q.3

Ulnt "Iu SOJ D10341 1,0754 1.013.6 916D 965.3 1 OS7D 1 42.2 1.7S9J 1.32 1.163.7

Leal Sales by Colia Alco Bowd

velam 25.0 54 46.0 46.0 3.0 6.4 37.0 D0D 42 415 26.2

Value 7.0 15.0 12.7 12.9 16.9 1940 20.6 21.3 41.7 37. 2S.7

Unit _au Ma 277.7 276D.0 04 4.3 445 57.0 71.0 S93.0 942.2 109345

Cangus In stocka of Ric &wed (volm) 1.1 -124 SD X5.1 -18J 14 10.0 19.2 34.1 2. -5.4

Otlr CresIdul) C1 101.3 5.0 -12.0 53.9 574 DJ4 7.4 37D 1.6 673 814

LIvuats aId Related Pro to

Mt Praductla. I lIIue po_dI

Bef II3 84 6. 64 8.1 3.9 3.6 446 4.7 4. 34

Mottas 24 34 4 .. _ .. _ .. .. -

Perk 2.5 35 4.9 5.1 3.7 4.0 3.1 35 2.4 SI 22

Peltry Mt d/ 125 17.0 2D9 16.3 22 253 2S.0 2SD 163 Si 8.3

Milk (million gulloma 2.4 2.5 2.7 .. .. - - 0.7 0.7

Egg laIIa1 3I49 X5. X5 52.9 325 524 559 51.0 485 N. 45J

Flldshg (mlllon11 _uds)

Fis D.0 35.0 35D 41* 32D 03.2 345 41.1 45.7 D9 62.1

ar kw 104I 74 74 74 84 8. 6.7 64 6.2 4.4

Farstry ldilile of c*tIc feat)

Thbr 8a 7.9 a. 6.2 S9 5.5 5D 4W9 74 6.7 6A

- 145 -

9kp 2 of 2a

Tlabi 7.1 (meiu .s UNMIA - GUIMI SP UECD 0WITIES

14 3s1 191 1117 t351 19I3 1 1131 is= too 1t4

MIrinl Pdhts (v.me In od lmug was, v.1ml b. d1iii_* d p.doll_r. e.g mit wval I. Gupma dollars per I" ha. mine olmiwi. 1.dl.ti)

Dried _t gradl It badutlim 1.3 I1.0 1SSD.0 1.0 J1n21.J 31.1s 106.0 323 3.6 51.0 W

Eaertaolume IWA . 36.0 C3.0 nu 11133.0 13330. NSA 33.3 02.0 UI.0 803

Valm 2.5 4I.S 33.1 41. U.S 543 624 7.J 30.0 B*1 110Unit w1_ MA 53 40.0 46.7 43.5 54.2 63 is.5 103.2 It2.J 05

Cmglel_ b_Itll

Probetlen 718D0 7.0 7293 1.0 510.0 S.0 5U D1.6 53.4 353 I 3303 5t7DEuprta

Velm 117.0 112.0 731.0 83.0 513 5623 3353 413:1 536 3191 511.0Value 1._ 163.1 19110.6 21.5 M1IA Z263 15.7 2SL.5 353 W3D 230

Unit va1. If4.0 2113 1107 05.2 3433 472.S SSJ1 S3SI 543 48.3 3S2J

Ptductl.m 313.0 236.0 5 23.0 236.0 153.7 213.S 1t7.Z 13.0 - -

Volans .=0 323 5 63.0 243. 145.0 22.2 433. 64.0 23.0 -

Vaha 47,5 6.7 64aJ SS 01.2 33.7 111.4 S11 11.0 7.0 -thit Vo1 W57.3 211Z 23.0 3S 3Z.4 3D0.3 4.5 6143 53.0 Sf 44 -

cold (tt_a_d am_o) _1.0 13I3 3.6 5.4 11JObm_da (hojsh emtl _ .. _ 10.0 13 IbJ2 M2A 7J

R (mdIilm proof gel.l.) 6.0 S0 4 i 3.3 3.4 5.S 4.0 3D 2.7 2.9 33Simlmonsdlfid pIla.nd 213 16.2 3J 11.S 3 21 . 23 3 2J.3 7.3 -

Capr. C_p.d) miii. SD 10.7 113 5. 4J 6.6 .39 4.5 - - .

Capr derlvstlve of dtlch

Copra m1l (thU.n. pama 10.) ".4) 44.) (.2) 3.4) (1.7) -_ _ ...Edibl oil (tln.g pilen) (20.0)1 C701.1) C151.0) (312.4) ( ) 6 (3553) (413.0) (317.0) 6.0 )SW i1111 p_mm (3.) (S.0) (4.5) UO.) C5) 0.5) (4O) 1. U5.C) (2.1) (0T3)Ibrprlao (mlii. pa ) (2J) C42) (4.7) (4.6) (43) (4.4) (6.4) (5.3) (0.9) (.1 CS6.

Be.. (amand pomt 25.0 3D03e 42.0 30.0 373 135.2 234.0- _ -

Imm amaamu polt_ _53 176.0 526.0 191.0 199J 141I 1531 .. _ _

S_mag Ct_hamd padd) 4za 211.0 17.0 19.0 4 II 2S.7 _ _bar MM Stht Om lil. pglow) 2D 23 3.1 35 33 J 3.9 3.5 2.9 1.7 33FIw *t_uamii1gb.) I 53 40.3 1 9.4 S5.9 353 3.1 1.2 31.7 6.0 _ -

Cigprttes (WilIlam) - - 5S3 557J1 5319.0 56 57.0 6020 4233 403.2 344.2Stck f_d (mIlik pomia 5.2 80.4 95.0 8.7 110.3 3N3S 1133 10MA 71.3 55D 540

lbtbS Ctt_ad b1m) 33.0 243.0 225.0 2f6 248.0 219. 0 2.D I 177s 1l J 155J 107.Garents (t d oaJ _ .. C71D0 42.0 560.0 3. 2f7.0 3.3 133.4 143.0Rfrigmttoas tbmmd mits) _ _ _ _ 20 .0 16.D 1.7 6.7 7.4

T,StiIe. Ct_Umm vt.r.) .. .. _ .. .. _ 4571 1.739J 64.4 1,3030 1.50

hamainy sabba (bYrne.).

5, lcia podqpd ad dwk ey-l Iga m.co bcisdas _d., Is", ow-fam _1t- tb-. chmp In fat re _d .1iore.

stdu., privat ai_ a_ wacumtad-1594 ecl_*.b r-bum memntla.

dO Cinwclal Profmas mly.

of imuliss vA6t gaft. cl_cal grab od almim anst.

Smresm Ulabtry of E lmic, Oliopati Statlotil l1rasa Ulolotry of Agrimlbla, W'SW. Mt; aB_ of Gaps.

- Not oalisbi.

Jm 3 arr 1U5

.- 146 -

Table 6.1s CONSUMER PRICE INDICES *2

t3970e - 10oe)

Food Clethlng Hmeanlg other Tatel Cllaea

URBAN

WeIghts 42.54 6.64 21.46 11.36 1.0.0

1170 100.0 100.6 100.0 100.0 to0.0

1971 101.2 104.6 100.4 100.0 101.0 C..)

1172 110.1 107.2 100.5 10s.1 106.0 (5.5)

1173 123.3 119.1 100.o 111.3 114.0 (7.5)

1174 155.9 ts3.6 107.3 125.1 154.0 117.5)

lS75 163.0 5S3.5 113.2 13S5.2 144.6 (7.93

1376 192.3 162.5 113.4 147.5 157.6 (9.0)

1977 206.7 165.9 115.3 164.5 170.7 (6.3)

1175 244.7 235.7 116.6 115.3 196.5 (15.1)

1179 290.9 313.0 125.4 226.6 231.4 (17.6)

I9mo 326.2 365.6 140.7 273.5 264.0 (14.1)

1s16 416.3 417.5 151.2 306.5 322.7 (22.2)

1162 525.1 570.5 156.5 343.6 390.2 (20.3)

1963 650.0 SIB.! 168.2 356.0 446.7 I53.0)

1964 h1 847.6 673.3 I77.l 336.6 5S5.6 C..)

RURAL

Weights 54.00 *.72 13.06 17.22 100.0

1170 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 6..)

1171 102.2 105.1 100.7 100.5 102.0 (2.0)

1972 108.7 111.4 100.1 104.2 106.6 (4.7)

1173 123.1 132.2 102.1 111.6 118.0 (10.5)

1174 157.3 159.7 110.6 120.3 142.3 (20.6)

1175 165.7 179.6 113.6 12s.5 330.2 (5.6)

1176 184.3 135.1 IIS.3 121.6 162.3 (6.5)

1977 204.6 231.4 137.9 154.7 161.1 (I1.7)

1975 z25.3 250.6 121.0 165.0 211.1 (20.3)

1979 290.0 324.2 140.2 216.3 252.1 (14.6)

9sso 324.3 344.7 163.1 25S.0 214.7 (13.0)

116l 402.2 439.7 177.4 211.1 345.4 (21.3)

1s9Z 460.2 431.7 16s.5 321.1 367.3 (12.1)

1953 525.1 532.7 114.8 336.3 431.2 CI1.3!

1154 h/ 621.6 564.5 200.7 362.3 512.0 C..)

GuYrANA C/

Welghts 50.73 1.41 22.03 17.83 100.0

2970 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 C..)

1171 101.1 105.4 1o0.6 100.4 101.7 (I.?)

1972 l0§.5 110.3 100.6 104.4 106.7 (4.9)

1573 123.7 125.6 101.6 111.7 117.2 (1.6)

1174 157.4 354.1 110.: 122.0 140.3 (11.7)

1975 165.7 172.4 113.5 26Z.6 140.7 (6.0)

2176 167.2 156.7 114.3 135.1 161.7 (6.7)

1977 201.6 219.4 117.2 15S.3 179.1 CI0.&)

1178 2S3.2 261.6 113.6 159.1 214.0 (19.5)

1979 211.5 321.0 136.1 222.0 247.4 (13.6)

9ss0 325.2 351.5 157.3 265.1 279.1 (12.8)

1951 408.7 459.5 170.7 303.4 340.5 (22.1)

1162 471.6 514.2 377.6 326.2 368.1 (23.3)

1293 561.0 557.3 167.2 342.5 436.3 (12.4)

1s96 ht 666.3 611.4 134.0 372.7 524.5 (..)

a* Average derleg porlod.

h. Jews. 1934 Coverage of period)..e Volgbted averaged of urban sod rural ludlee with weighta of 26.575 urbha and 71.431

rural.

Sources Statlitical Burgea.

Jommary/February 13S5

- 147 -

Table *.2, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BY OUARTER m/

(1970.100)

Z Chbage

Feed Clothiag Heoulsg Other Total Oearterly Yearly

UIRBAN

Is6o Otr. 1 316.7 343.4 140.4 272.2 257.6 (1.2) C..)

Qtr. 11 321.1 361.4 141.0 271.9 261.2 (1.4) C..)

Qtr. III 327.9 366.5 141.0 27S.7 265.4 (1.6) C..)

Qtr. IV 344.2 402.6 141.2 278.6 276.1 (4.0) (8.5)

l1al Otr. I 362.1 443.4 147.6 281.9 237.3 (7.7) (15.4)

otr. It 408.7 50S.7 155.3 311.6 321.3 (6.3) (23.2)

Otr. III 440.9 539.6 15.7 326.7 341.6 (6.1) (25.7)

Otr. IV 469.2 550.0 156.2 336.2 356.2 C4.3) (29.0)

1932 Otr. 1 455.3 553.1 156.6 336.3 368.7 (3.5) (24.0)

Otr. 1i 514.5 S58.1 156.6 341.6 363.8 (4.1) (13.2)

Otr. III 557.5 573.2 157.7 356.4 406.0 (5.5) (16.3)

Qtr. IV 585.2 593.8 166.2 355.7 425.0 (4.7) (19.3)

1983 Otr. I 622.5 604.2 167.3 354.6 434.9 (2.3) (10.0)

Otr. II 635.1 612.3 166.0 355.9 442.2 (1.7) (I5.2)

Otr. III 658.4 621.5 166.7 350.4 4S2.1 (2.2) (11.4)

Qtr. IV 684.6 632.5 169.0 362.9 465.6 (3.0) (5.6)

1964 Otr. 3 812.2 667.5 174.3 390.4 537.5 (15.4) (23.6)

Qtr. It 856.8 670.6 177.4 400.6 560.6 (4.3) (26.6)

RURAL

1950 Otr. 1 31i.4 337.4 350.0 247.7 274.1 (2.0) I..)

Qtr. 11 317.6 342.5 16S.5 256.3 281.0 (2.5) C..)

Otr. III 330.0 342.0 165.0 256.3 287.7 12.4) C.)

Qtr. IV 338.3 355.5 166.4 271.1 296.1 (2.9) (10.2)

1961 Otr. I 354.4 380.4 166.4 271.7 307.1 13.7) (12.0)

Otr. 11 398.7 433.3 179.9 301.3 343.6 (11.!) (22.2)

Otr. III 421.0 464.1 180.4 310.7 360.5 14.9) (2S.3)

Otr. IV 434.5 460.7 182.9 312.6 370.2 (2.7) (25.0)

OUYANA bh

19s0 Otr. 1 312.9 339.1 153.0 254.7 269.4 (1.6) I-)

Otr. 11 316.6 346.0 153.3 270.1 275.3 (2.21 C..)

Otr. III 329.4 349.6 158.7 263.9 2a1.3 12.2) I.)

Otr. IV 340.0 369.2 359.2 273.7 290.4 (3.2) (9.7)

1981 Otr. 1 362.3 398.4 161.1 274.6 304.3 (4.6) (13.01

Otr. It 401.5 454.3 172.3 304.2 337.4 (10.9) (22.6)

Otr. III 426.7 487.7 173.4 315.3 355.1 (S.2) (26.2)

Otr. IV 444.4 500.6 175.2 319.5 366.2 (3.1) (26.1)

*J Ead of perled.hi Welghted average at arbam aed rural Indices with weights of 26.575 urban and 71.43Z

rtraI.

Setrces Statistical Bureau.

Ja-eary/Febreary 1985

-148 -

Table 5.3a OUTANA - REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE AND RELATED SERIES *J

(ladaseam 1o0.lo0)

RelatIve Consumer Conamer

Real l.ulmal Consumer Price Price

Effective Effective Prices Exchange ldex IndexExcbeege eAchanga (local Rate (U.S. I(seaeelly (Get seasor-Rmbat/ct R*t. b1 cerrency)c/ dollars) adjleted3d/ ally adjuated)

Quarterly

1 975III 99.9 103.5 96.6 100.e 75.5 75.6

IV 102.0 102.2 99.5 100.0 50.1 50.3

1 979101.2 102.2 19.0 100.0 81.6 51.3

1 103.1 101.9 101.2 100.1 55.5 5S.5

Ilit 00.5 33.6 100.9 100.0 a9.s 59.2

IV 103.8 IOt.2 100.9 100.0 93.5 94.0

1980

1 102.2 100.6 101.6 100.0 96.5 97.0II 100.9 100.6 100.4 100.0 99.2 99.0

III 97.7 95.9 98.5 100.0 100.2 100.3IV 99.2 100.0 99.2 100.0 103.7 103.5

19511 106.0 102.7 103.2 100.0 111.2 111.21 108.3 Iz.9 105.4 95.0 117.0 116.9III 100.s 97.4 111.4 55.0 127.0 127.2IV 109.3 95.1 113.5 55.0 133.2 133.0

1952

I 113.1 98.1 115.3 55.0 137.5 137.5Il 117.3 100.6 117.2 55.0 142.9 142.8III 126.6 103.3 122.6 55.0 152.1 152.6

IV 133.4 10s.6 126.2 5s.0 155.5 155.41953

1 143.6 105.1 132.5 55.0 163.3 169.21 15S3.9 109.4 140.6 85.0 182.1 152.2III 166.1 112.3 147.9 85.0 115.4 196.2

IV 179.5 114.3 157.4 s5.0 212.0 211.31954

c164.3 95.4 172.4 69.5 237.0 236.9

II 174.1 94.6 184.1 68.0 2S7.0 257.1III 192.2 90.9 194.3 65.0 275.7 276.3

IV 190.0 92.5 205.3 61.4 296.9 295.5Iontbl y1954

January 169.0 101.2 167.1 73.4 225.1 227.3February 161.2 92.9 173.6 65.0 238.8 235.7

March 162.7 92.2 176.5 S5.0 244.2 244.7April 168.6 93.3 150.7 60.0 251.2 2s5.5

Nay 174.6 94.9 153.9 65.0 256.5 S57.0

June 179.0 95.4 157.6 65.0 262.0 265.5

July 156.2 97.8 190.3 65.0 265.0 270.1Aegust 191.1 95.3 194.4 66.0 275.9 276.5

September 199.4 100.6 198.3 65.0 253.3 253.7

October 156.4 92.3 201.9 61.4 290.4 259.4

November 158.4 91.6 205.7 61.4 297.4 296.0

December 195.1 93.7 208.2 61.4 302.8 301.0

a/ Tbe basket Incledee the major trading partuers of Gwyana Ithe United States. the

United Kingdom, Canada. Japan. Frne. the Federal Repubilc of Germany. end the

Netherlande) wblh have a combined weight of 90 percent.

bJ lscreasese men appreciation.

c/ Uslcg seesonally djoseted price Iedems.

dt Data sad 1984 are staff estimates.

Soerceec IMF *taff estimates.

Jaeaury/Febrmary 1985

- 149 -

Table 5.41 GUYANA - PADDY AD RICE PRICES

2cteber January March January may February June

1979 1980 1980 1981 1981 1962 1964

Extra A Grade Paddy a/ (Ge/r teo) 346.50 362.25 370.13 417.38 441.00 519.75 661.SO

CRice Equivalent Price) bl ($/o ton) (575.00) (548.66) (560.80) (632.39) (660.18) (787.50) 1002.17

Extra Whit. A Rice Local Purchase

(OS/r ton) 600.25 621.75 637.00 710.50 747.2S 945.70 1183.35

White Rice No. I Local Sales

(0s/u ten) 578.20 578.20 578.20 686.95 732.55 978.78 1102.SO

White Rice (Bulk) Export to CARICOM

(05/. ton) c/ 938.35 1 025.45 1 025.45 1.234.77 1,452.66 d/ 1,452.66 2320.0

World NMrket */ (Current US*/m ton) 334.20 427.10 427.10 470.00 535.00 I/ 323.80 254.79/

Werld Market (Current US&/m ton) 852.21 1,089.11 1,08S.11 1,302.54 1,605.00 I/ 971.40 974.4

-/ The prices used for paddy and rice are for best avallabie grades of approved variety by the CRB.

h/ The pricoe In parenthels a*r for the coats per ton of rice obtalned from paddy, uaing a milling rate of

0.66. The prlce thus derived does not Include bran, the by-product.

c/ The export price Is for firet quality white rice to Trinidad.

d/ June 1981 following devoiuation of C0.

_: The world mrket prices for rico refer to Thai S broken, FOB. Bangkok.

f/ Junoe 1981 converted at now exchange rate of USSI.00-C53.00.

I/ April-Juno prico.

Sourcess Guyana Rice Board.

January/February 19as

- 150 -

Tabl 6.4 Atbem t I

PlMOIME PRICE OF PADY Br lME affNA RICE MM, 1970-61

(0$ per 0 O/

I Oet. I S1 pt. I Oct. I lar. I Oct. I Jm. I hr. I JI. 25 y 2 Feb. 2 J

GRAD g 1971 a 1972 1973 1974 197S 1979 1960 1980 1961 1961 19U22/ 1194

lprvand rwletla

Extra A 130.13 10.41 161.5 211735 217.3 315.00 366.50 362.25 310.13 417.3 441.00 519.75 661.S

A 12AS 141del M54.6 205.70 25.70 129.35 3 12B6 5.1;5 3466SO 33.75 41735 496.13 O0.O

B 114.56 133.40 141.91 192.94 113.73 2.4 303.6 319.73 327.3S 374.s M364 472.50 601.65

C W7.10 124.74 121.99 110.02 11.91 244.13 215D3 2915 2S9.25 3t6650 310.13 47.0 3S.97

O.r wrbetles

Extra A 72.5 133.40 154.67 1U.69 169.79 23.0 330.75 36.50 354.3 401.1 425.25 519.75 661.50

A 114.56 124.0 141U.91 117.96 164.3 272.4 315.00 330.75 3I6.63 3IS1 46.0 416.13 60a00

B 107.10 116.24 132.46 166.48 16931 2615 239.25 315.00 322.6 3D0.13 33.75 472.5D 601.65

C 9.23 107.71 123.93 157.97 2311. 2Z.38 29.1S 215.6 235:O 330.75 3i436 437.06 M5.97

0 74.03 80.33 106.79 140.91 145.9 234.75 236S - - - - 37.9 505.9

d The paddy price ar quotd by GM par 140 lb. bg. A cenrlmn factor of 2ZS lb.

to an mtrlc too la baen maed o obtain ttl pric per ^u

V Tien primea _re In aff act fwr I crp tsr y 9w 1 1970.

Themw prlcns _ a In affect far tb crop y_r 1970-71.

U The pricea _r In affect for tlh crop yerw 192-8 nd 1983-64.

Sorwci Guysn Rie Board.

J r#FrIry 1915

- 151 -

Tabls 8.4 Attuclst 2RUIAE PRICE OF NICE BT llE OItAIA RICE BM , 1970-12

(OS per tU a.#

Ilt. I Oct. Jum IS Feb I Spt. 15 Isr. I M1r. I Oct. I Jl . I Nor. I J. 25Ma1 2 Fb. Jum

1970 1371 1372 1973 1971 1974 1175 1979 1910 n91o 195l 191 198I0/ 1314

Whit Rilos

Extra WIhit A 265.0 265.00 245.0 265.0 245J0 245.0 51.Z 600.25 621.75 637. 710.3 747.5 945.J II3s35

A 252.75 2S.is 2. 75 252.75 232.75 232.75 S08.I i3.0S 18.00 600.25 673.75 710.3 908.85 1140.47

s M2. 201J5 2MS 20sZ 211 205 2. 415.5 SS 35 51.5 53.3 67.00 613.15 864.5 1075.S

C 171.5 171.5 171.M 171.3 171.50 171.5 41038 4593 490.00 S2.5 575.75 612.3 792.57 964.90

Broken B 1OD4o 10o.45 1004s 100.6 100.45 10 .45 232.75 26935 294.0 30.5 3N7. 404.5 5143 726.67

Parboiled Rlca

Extra SuWr 257.5 257.3 31236 312.5 36.36 496.13 S3 621.75 686. 698.5 784.wi IU.7S 961.25 12.00

Sur 245.00 245.0 257.5 34.400 315.3 465.3 490 600.25 649.25 661. 747.2 784.0 944.4 1179.06

Extra No. l 223.5 223.S 255.B1 275.63 300.13 444.0S 465-. 5M33 612.- 621.75 710.3 747.25 90G35 1123.4

No. I 28.25 206.25 22w 257.25 231.75 43.75 441.0 514.3 575.75 55.0 613.75 710.M M52 106735

Extra No. 2 - - 196.00 232.75 257. 3 2.0 392.00 465-. 526.75 535.M0 621.75 661. 5 803.60 1002.17

No. 2 169.5 169.05 177.63 220.50 245.00 357.3 367.5 43.75 490.0 50225 St.OD 624.75 766JC5 9536

No. 3 m.3 122-5 122.3 - - - 306.3 355.7S 404.3 41650 477.75 514.50 656.60 6:6.25

Sopor Broke 122.3 122.D 147. 1113.5 183.75 269.3D 29.3 316.50 404.3 416.0 477.75 514.3D 656.60 516.95

The rica price are quted by I per 180 lb. bags. A aner. aIo factor of 22G5 lib.

to ame mtrictIns ben uwd to obtaIn the price per r.

bl Them prices _rr In effect for Us cop yira 19012- nd 198344.

Swre: Gaa Rice Board.

JamwryFabrsry 1965

- 152 -

Tablo 0.4 Atteahment 3

LOCAL WHOLESALE RICE PRICES BY THE GUYANA RICE BOARD, 1975-54

(0$ per mt)

I Mar. I Oct. I Jan. I Nor. I Jan. 25 May 2 Feb. June

1975 1979 19SO 1180 1916 1961 19028/ 1264

Bulk Rice ba

Parboiled - Super 539.00 627.20 627.20 627.20 749.70 793.80 1058.40 1320.55

Parboiled - No. 1 49O.00 570.20 576.20 578.20 6a8.45 732.S5 976.78 1190.70

White - No. 1 490.00 575.20 576.20 578.20 688.95 732.55 978.78 1102.50

Packaged Rice C/

Pearl - 955.50 955.50 955.50 1109.35 1153.95 1617.00 2017.57

Indian Maid 698.25 608.50 805.50 106.50 926.85 1006.95 1414.66 1765.47

Guyana Parboiled 698.25 606.50 808.50 806.50 926.65 1006.9S 1414.68 176S.47

Guyann White 698.25 808.50 808.50 608.50 926.65 1006.95 1359.7S 1696.74

guyana Super 695.25 608.50 808.so 806.50 926.85 1006.9S 1414.88 1765.47

a1 The** price. were In effect for the crop years 1982-83 and 1903-84.

b/ The bulk rice Is eold In 180 lb. secks. This rice Is of a lower quality. containing about 203 broken

c/ The packaged rice Is mold In 60 lb. socks. This rice is of a higher quality, containing about IO0

brokens.

Sources Guyana Rlce Board.

January/February 1965

- 153 -

Tabl. 9.1z a IM4 -2ACM AS F93JE= SRAM IRES J UEIUIES

tin l anat 197ra prlom)

I" 19U t35 1"6 1s7 I 139 190 191s 12 19 1994 1995

AVicultwo In 2a0.0 204. 20.7 2144J 219.9 21. M.65 27.5 264.6 2W 2S3 257.3Mla 9 60 .0 10W.9 104.9 D9 I1 t2 3 x .5 t.2 143. 1.9 161.0 f7X.6

_b.facbtlq 998 100.0 . IOA 107.4 11. 112 115t3 11a 12213 126.0 123. 133.7CoctEuata 6.0 61. 61.0 54.6 57.o 5.6 CLC f.0 s 0.6 3.75 n7.5 MA 1J

Ce_.mmt 167.0 187.0 192.4 30J 3MJ 196. 21.6 270 .2% 22DJ 20.4 272.6 37.6

Othe Swvlma 19.0 70Z0 213.1 25.4 3.1 2tJ1.7 3J1 360.0 7. D360 4.3 I.4 412.5

M Wacba C.OtW M0.0 a40 7.6 90.5 959. SW33 1OZJ 11003 ISA 13. 15. 13WID 1 0

Nat l.iamct *m I0U 9. 93.3 S2.2 36.0 III. It3 1.7 1M5 31.7 15.3 142 161.7

SP Cmi*.t MICRO 906.0 910.0 12. 1011.11 1057.3 1104.9 11CO6Z 136.O 1313 1-} 37 x.3 IS163 159.7

F - lsc -. 4 -16.5 168. -4. -125 40.1 -4.0 0.3 2.6 5.4 0.7 12.5 17.0

Ear OM 4176 473.1 490.6 512.6 536 lO 50.6 513 i 65.0 06.0 7W53 7mD.0 821.4

_.tr aID 491.0 45.6 S9.0 DP 5m 51.7 35J GOA 636.4 O80.6 72. 7164.5 1 .

Croe. I 36. 172. 2a0.0 27OD 236. 236.0 3D 4.0 3S. 315 415.0 444.0 475.0

Pbltle t91.0 07.0 22.5 219t6 Z3.1 210.1 27.5 24.3 2103 3.5 37.9 It" 36.6

Priwab 35. 35.0 49 4 S4.5 5 .9 65.9 72.5 79.7 87.7 965 106.1 I6.J 12.4

Total ona 63.0 7.0 72m3 7S.3 2" 619.1 S543 339.7 .7 971.9 1014.6 1059.6 1107A

Pllc 234.0 24.0 2013 214.7 220.3 226.1 231.9 23.0 24.2 2s.5 2S7.0 263.7 210,

Privat 449 513.0 52.0 537.5 33.S 53.0 6Z.3 651.6 J 6. 74 7157. 736.1 37.2Om_tic SwInl 225. 15.0 2511 J 3l S 2 273.5 76.9 36.9 3343 30.6 30.4 42.7 456.5 491.9

Not Factor Income 9. .0 -41.0 D41A -442 65.2 477 -703 -7Z.7 -74.4 -76.2 -131 -5.2

Not Tronsfa 1. 9.0 7.2 73 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2

Natimnal S.wImE 16L.0 4D.0 217.0 36.0 2j9 22! 265 2m.2 295.1 -352 3.7 365 AM.0

- 154 -

Tabl a2s WAII ACR- L AS WAIM WF PMISI

(US xIn3Ial-

I 11I4 135 Is5 "f7 ISf1 199 10 liS I92 133 1194 115

Exprta OS ZD.0 2.30S 245 271.2 3DWS 366 365.6 45139 S14.4 OM91 4 73.2 118.1

3wr13 1833 313 2 N2 36.9 26.6 26.7 W6.! 31.3 36. 4.9 53.0 23 623.9 716.7

M-f_ctm Smtclm 31.7 23 3.0 3a2 3a6. 43,3 473 53.9 615 70. 80.0 91.3 101.4

_utaO SF 326. 3D1.1 30.7 318.0 314.9 46C3 W6.6 SM.9 643.3 34.1 629.7 1013. 1146L

hrs_lm 26.3 222 23I.0 53.2 216.7 32. 36.2 419.2 442 S U 666.5 47.2 IISIJ1n1-ftor Sarlca 3. W.9 5k.7 US 101. 2W 13m.4 W7.7 1.7 24.7 M533 S. 34.4

ba ubtem -*03 -0.6 -74.9 -77n -G4B -1003 -111.0 -121.9 -439.5 -I85.0 -W4 407.5 -32.2

Nt FecOr Isca -3 -20.2 -2.D5 -323 -36 -U. -712 1 41i -104 -30. -117A -1323 -147.6

lotst plb2ot

Cto_tbO -2u -16C2 -3 -21.2 -ll-7 -16.9 -M -15J -13A -Wi -11.3 -10.0 -6.6

Ot_ -1.2 -4. -4.9 -113 -1.1 .45. 453 -463 -78.7 41.5 -106.1 -S.3 -330.0

Tranfr at) 0.7 4.7 5.2 5.7 63 6.9 7.6 6.3 9.2 10.1 11.1 2 14

Xra.t At Blance 421.9 46.1 43 4104.7 -IiS9 -ISS 374.6 -131.0 .9 -1.2 -33.7 -3.0 41.4

FirAcImg

Not PIIk Cmplifl

(amltfe 2S.0 11.7 16 .3 -2.7 -21.1 .5.0 .36.7 37.7 453 44.1 32.2 43.0DI lra.t 46. 25 74.9 22.2 15 3.2 12.6 4.2 - - - - -

Alsrt atlE 41.1 -14. .3 -W57 .462 -413 5.6 -40.9 41.7 4.3 34.1 -453 4.0nat Otbor Cwili 45.6 -41. -454 19.2 3.6 83.9 1153.C 10.7 26.6 2665 357A 4152 4934

capitl |c t b3in 46.6 -%. -21.6 -t13 S3 53. S 7.6 126.0 11.9 231.2 303.7 36. 41.

Ourall bima -181.5 -342.S -12U. --11 -1130 -100 47.0 -74. -41.0 .6. -30.0 -1S.0 0.0

- 155 -

jahle 9.3t ONMi - tALR AG6 13.MT 6OT5 Al mr

1@ s. n Z REW(US mSlims

no nu Is" im wN tI nu is" UN 299 1o 130194 Ms3

Eapart (Cmontant)

304r 33 513 W.0 6LI 6 64.5 654 0.4 70.5 726 74. 71.0 7TD3flii 3. 65.0 0*3 72 75.4 610.2 f5J 515 9 W na3 1.2 1125 MA 1S

Rim .4 31.0 11.A 1".4 A 1.2 21.2 2.2 Z4 2.7 S.1 27.5 3.0 MA.

atr 2Z. 72.2 2M 25 2 3.4 304 35 343 313 32! 427 456 4Z5.

Total rctdlm 1546 1644 M1 7.5 U7.7 16 217D 2.0 2285 2 31.7 20.7 17.5 2.l 7.6

ManF.etwu Swwlc. 24.5 21.9 2a6 21.5 2.S 23.6 2a6 26.2 2.7 29.2 ! 326 34.5

TOtl E2wta 06 211.2 2653 232.4 12.0 211.2 219J 231!. 2643 1.4 212.3 2115.3 3H. m.I

E t Prim Imdlc

_ur 94.6 2023 1099 117.6 12S. 1346 144.0 I5.1 16t. 19! 173.4 117.3 156.1

Ibome09 16 7D.0 U03 143J IS.2 209.7 14.7 254 21006 225. 23.4 2A3 21.2

Rlo 13ZJ I11J ICJ IIS9 126. 134.5 1453 155.3 1.5 153. 1S1 213.5 721.2

over 23.4 5 140.6 ISI. 153.2 T763 210. 26 ZE 23.5 25.0 213.7 3Z3.7

Total _rdl.d 2 117.4 2m. 22 13ZL 14.5 1552 161.3 161.5 1NA 25N1.2 Zm1.3 234.4 265A

Mon Fact Slvma I2I.4 13.9 M406 2SJ 153.2 T163 230.4 m5.6 Z22.1 2. M1A 219.7 233.7

Total Ewta OS 119S I2Z.7 W1.7 136.5 145.5 157A 1703 1254.4 213A 2116 C .4 2M).2 2S

Exita (Cm. t Primoa

Sag- *3 3.5 64 71.5 'MA 86.5 65 206.5 114.0 2e53 1U. 2.3 15.0Dmflta 733 90. 97.2 104.. 1U33 135.2 11.4 184.2 214.2 2.3 214.1 310* 3C6

Ric 21.7 I 3 2L25 25.2 2.S 32.3 3.5 419 477 S6.4 60 NJ.7

Otbo 23.0 31J 34! 40.1 45.4 53A 62D 716 82J S5C6 1205 2O2.7 14.4

Total -- _a.dlm 23 21.2 215 316 S 293.7 MU 3463 5M5 t J 5* 5O23 c63.3 712.7

.u Factor Saryi. 32.7 33 2.0 32L 35.5 41.5 47.3 53! 61.5 10. 80.0 31.3 101.4

Total Eas1tD 06 ZD.0 Z1.5 215! 271.2 35.5 306.5 6 356 41! 514. 5W9.1 G.4 735.2 120.2

w- w( sCtm

cmmr 19.3 10. 21.1 21.5 11.9 22J 3322. 13. 14.0 U IS4 1.2 2.0

Iimnbdlate 3.2 50 S.I 536 S5.5 57.5 M.1 62. 65! U.S 733 71.4 51.6

capital 37.1 27.3 A 25. a.5 3J 3. 336 3A4 313 32.4 41.6 439

Fmi 41.7 44 44 5 40.3 35.5 MA 56 S73 3A 62.5 U52 6IJ 72.1

Ot_u 1.5 1.0 1D 1.1 IJ1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.S 1 1.7

Total Mercadi 1s.5 143 1211.7 2433 15.5A 154.5 160A 10.0 2755 215.5 294 Z14.5 215.2

m Factr Savlno 53.7 .J 5161.0 63. 6W3 6c.2 12.7 76.7 60J 66.4 90J 65.0 lr:.2

Total _nat c6 217.5 293.7 25.6 27 21 215. 2zSa .5 246 251.4 M210 34.9 239. 315.

b_wt Prim Indila

Co~ 1_23.4 L935! 140 2 ISIJ 163.2 175.3 19D.4 205.6 222I D. 21.0 29.0 33.7

Inta_dl3at. 1a.4 2M3 24. ISI. 2532 765.3 150.4 2 2.5 Z1Z1 23.J 31.0 2D90 237

Capitl 129.4 15! 1406 0 51.I 2552 275 . 190.4 2056 722.2 30J 259. 2793 2933

Fmi 231l6 2251 2i.5 25.6 22C! 215A.4 303.5 334.5 353 2 47.2 5J 10.7

Ot_ 13n.4 2339 1406 ISIJ 253.2 1753 190.4 2056 Z3.1 2 S3. 2D.0 7.9.7 33.7

Total breM_l 156.4 164. 16.5 17 112.7 210.1 20 29A. 214.4 32A1 331.1 36.5 55.5

Ike F_clar Sarwlc 139.4 IMA 140.6 11.2 153.2 175.3 190.4 256 7ZJ1 23BJ 31.0 2J 2933

Total t CRS 249.1 15.4 160.7 15.8 M. IS9.7 217_ 2.5a 257.'9 ! 22.2 5 7J.7 39 34

c.ainr 15.0 14.4 ISi 1723 2.4 21.7 24 Z.J 31IJ 323 40.0 453 493.

In_1m-laft 71;6 6. 73.2 51.2 MA 2013 I3 121. 1463 265.7 1113 225.4 213

Cital 450 35. 323 436 4S.7 544 5 69.0 b9D 106 1WLI 1163 13.A

F-i S6S 101.9 105.4 203.5 1C1. 1,45.4 65. 91J2 M. 25.4 310.5 14.7 4114

Otl_ 2.0 13 1.5 1.6 1J 2.2 2.3 2J 31 3.5 4.0 4.5 S.0

Total wbr dlm 253 Z21.2 2350 23. 25.7 365 35. 4123 4.2 ff J.4 616C5 747.2 01.5

Mon Factr Slra 76.0 1! 55.7 SS6J W5 12 132.4 157J 2J73.7 2f6SJ 233 25J 24.4

Total lrbt 0 .3 1.1 303.7 30 34J 469 SC Wr6! MA 756.1 63.7 1101.0 2146.3

- 156 -

Tab:. 9.4A UM4 - P98EC1E FULIC S9ED FIRIIUS

Icareat go I IlId

193 1914 1905 1966 19J7 Usm 1969 19m 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 INS

PMlc Sactr Opwratlm

Ctrl Burnt

Currat Revenue 565t9 600.2 562.0 61.2 70s5 68.2 19J.6 13US 13193 1511J 17i6S 2062.0 230

T ReMa 47! 54.5 513.8 577.1 645.3 713.5 1.S.7 1039.4 12063 1339 1131. 18115.3 217.9

Direct 2103 2353 211.S 270.5 3.S 363.5 419A 41.2 655 16.2 761.5 83.7 1025.6

ISldrect m2 30J.2 213.0 36i 342a 412.0 415.6 5.2 640. 143.7 t65.0 00J1 1623

Mm Tax P _a 76.0 55.7 48.2 5u1 60.5 72.7 4 97.4 113J 1.2 11Z3 116.7 20S.1

Gwe.t ExiprqA bres 65.5 119.2 U104.2 12.4 13 .J 6.7 1651.4 1736.S 1997.9 ZM. 2117.6 2976.0 076.7

Wag _ Salaries 211. 20.6 35.J 342.7 63.0 436.2 415. M2 603.1 9A 812.3 60.7 1.

0Otr 64.5 8.6 6.2 937. 96.1 10S 175.6 1234.J 1A4.7 I.1 1675.3 1353 205I.

imlest 426.2 556A4 D3. 5114D GZ.7 702.2 765.4 796.6 913. 101.4 1032 1244.4 136.1

Ttamafar 6i.7 67.3 67.3 72.7 77.8 119.4 9S.4 8.2 119.0 130.9 144.0 15.4 174.3

1;ob md Services 173.6 245! 2511.2 211J 51.7 269 313.5 39.5 52.5 3.J 43.6 432 530.7

CtA blam -A6 -5.0 S 4Z. -6.2 445 63S.5 71A 64.6 418.S -6.9 -710.7 -707.0 -637

Capil R7alptc 2.3 51.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capital Eupudgtea 3S.5 671.0 642.3 721.4 MA 969.3 1119.6 U9.3 U132 s74.1 126.1 166.3 351.1

Overll satem -m2a.8 -1176. -1A4.5 .137.6 -1451.9 -1647A -1191.3 -194!9 -211G.9 -354. -213A5 32= -2m34a

Publc Corpoatlem

Oporatlg a 1646.9 200.7 356.2 2455.1 D21. 3Z1.1 5M9.1 4216.6 411.5 D55.3 44.2 742 8393.6

oarJr. 244.0 410.0 433.3 4615 SZI.7 9J!t 6719.5 73.0 902.1 1010.1 11325 1261.9 1ZI.7

2=:_ce 251.1 307.9 3.4 3.2 367.0 42.1 464.6 93.1 530.6 5.5 664.0 6SC65 753.2

NiS 196.4 139.S I5. 170.4 199.5 ZsJ 276! 3121.3 3129 432.7 s5e22 5s2.6 S16.3otbr 97.4 1143.3 11.6 146Z.0 16347 1964.6 39J 2.1 3.2 3as5s 5464 4115.5 4776.1 5542.6

Opaqtlag Expmdl twr 1644.6 20D.1 2M7 Z.8 21541 215.2 315.1 367.7 4456.5 S36 a 807.6 664.7 7612.0

Sqlm 33D0 S14.0 S53.3 511.5 S61.7 4.a 658.5 3D.0 357J ss. a 1012.S 1178! 3 16.7

-em 35.1 395J 355J 345.2 31.6 41J 45sJ sm5 4S62.8 587.0 634!9 606.6 742.6

NiS 2.2 25D 21a Ds 33.4 3aJ 45.6 49.2 55.5 U.6 7D.7 79.7 90.0

tlsr 903.3 111S3 1270. 142BJ 1S7.5 192.6 3m4.0 2583 301.3 3466.3 4049.5 4703.5 5462.

Operating as lam. 4.3 -49.4 38.4 . 18. 22A 304J 3sa!s 424.7 46. 586.6 6715 781!

"M -13.0 -104.0 D 0.0 -50.0 -20.0 5.0 20.0 3.0 45.0 60.0 80.0 90.0 105.0

Gaye -1o0. 47,9 ! 43.S S 5.5 6.0 6.6 12. 7.8 6.4 9.1 9! 10.7

OIS 1632 114.5 131.1 147.9 166.1 200.9 Z35.3 Zm. 317.4 370J 431.5 50.0 586.3

Otor ".1 3.0 30.D 33.9 37.3 41.0 4.1 49.6 54.6 0.0 66.0 72.6 79!

fet Tmafara 42.5 -47, -37 -58.D -6j -70J -77.1 64J -9.3 -102.7 -1129 -124.2 -136.7

Caget Accnt klm -5.2 -s73 -443 70.8 121.1 1UA 27.8 274.1 331.4 335.9 13.7 551s3 65.2

Capital Trmfara 9Z5 33 10.0 150.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capital Ees_dita 67.2 0oJ 263.3 112.5 137.1 160. 184.5 2123 264.1 2793 319J 366.2 419J

011 Belawe -39 155.8 -177.6 1OS -2.1 21t! 43 6.7 8r 16s IIG 1S4.0 1 t1a 253

Conold. PublIc Sector

Curmat Awat hieow -57. a 63 -656.6 -D7.4 -SM.2 -495.7 -444. -335. -347. -3D4J -!a7J -155.7 -3s.5

C_mtrcl nr_M t -33S -4.0 -6133 -49.2 -64S.3 -678.5 471.1 -649.6 43.5 -609! -710J -707.0 -637

Pool C Crpwetles -5162 -473 -14.3 78a t21.1 132a ma.8 274.1 331.;& 39S! 413J S51_3 645.2

capital Reausu 23 51.2 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capital Ev4sudi hues 310.2 417.9 8 604. 94 s 4.9 1131 1306.4 1514.6 1600.6 U5.2 2013. 220.0 2179.9

Cambal Bumaimat 395. 671.0 645 721.4 J10 9603 1119.6 12993 4.4 1574.J 1726.J 1I63 2051J

Pub l Cknpertlama 67.2 80.5 233 21.4 13.2 162.6 1869 215.5 2.2 234 325 373.7 43A

Tramderatocap. 32.-3.9-100.0-130.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ovemil Bas=a -95S.7 -IOZ0SO A-1 -135.2 -1465. -12.6 -115.3 -t110 W. 5 S -2163.0 -33 -414.5 -15

Exacl Fial_ag 1S6. 70.0 236 14.6 27.4 52.1 662.7 82. 1030.4 121!9 15S7_ 192l.l MIJ

_stic Filnaucig 60.7 S S.0 1175.6 10310.6 17.7 1105.5 1087.6 10617.1 997J 361J 7013 492.1 267.1

- 157 -

Tab Is9.:S W06A - aECTID IDMU1C I1CDMTIOIS

I9s 1#4 Ises Omi is" 1si Omi Ia isu 19 ISO uISS sS6

I1_O.t 2x 183 ZJ 27.1 27.0 25J 5.7 V73 Z1.7 33 MA 233 3.7Pulic 2D.4 13.5 7 21.7 2I.4 38 335 3LB 3.9 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.7Prlvab 435 4J 5.1 5.4 Si 6.0 6.2 63 6J 7.1 74 7.7 6.0

Cmu_tla. 75.4 83.7 74.1 74.4 74.1 74J 736 72.7 721 713 70.6 U.9 692PublIc 25.8 21.7 20.7 21.2 20J 2335 .O0 19.4 A 18.4 17.9 17.4 16.9Privts 49.8 Q 5.4 5S.1 53 5.7 S.6 5S2 5.2 550 S.7 353 5Z.3

DatSc Savior 26. 163 25.9 25S 25. 259 254 273 21.9 3.7 3.4 30.1 3.8

IStbcl Swlge 1"3 13.2 23 2Z2 22.4 20. 21.2 Zt.2 2.9 25.7 3.6 2.4 253Z 6NP~ CNmnlin

Cr Crrt Revem 39 353 3.9 2.9 3.9 3J 23.9 .9 as.9 3.9 a.9 23! 23.9CO Cmt Eu_dlOr 61.6 6.2 64.1 60.7 573 5.8 3D. 47.0 453 43.6 41.9 40.2 38SCC CWTret Acet -=7 -32. -34.2 -W.18 -27.4 f3 -. 5 -17J -1S.4 -13.7 -12.0 -103 -4.5P*l Ic Sectr Curput

Account -5.7 .3.6 -3.0 -2.0 -72.0 -17.5 -13.6 9.9 -7.9 4.9 -4.0 -e3 .0.5PSlc Secto Oveall -51.9 -6.2 -77.8 -39 -62J -573 -5.4 -49.7 -459 -42.2 -38.4 -34.9 -31.4

! 0P l Olu(N.Ix)

Eups IIS 4.4 51.9 S.1 49.2 49.7 45. 4S62 45.5 46. 43.3 42.0 40.8 3.2

9-ortm S 66.9 61.7 653 CS3 640 603 S9.2 D.l 57.6 5. 56.7 56.2 54.8

RNew1 Sgloom -35 .15.9 -IS.2 -14.1 -143 -13.5 -13.0 -12 - -13.8 -146 -15.4 -15.6

or Curret Account -25. -19.4 -3.2 -19.0 -19.3 -21.0 -3.4 -9.9 -2.2 -3.9 -25 - -22.0

Ovenrll flu lance -3.9 -321 -53 -2.0 -183 -13.5 -10.2 -7.4 -63 -3.6 -1.9 -O. 0.0

Z Expwts CNS- ls iSIS

lsterat Pubilc Debt 10.7 7.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 150 ISD MO I0 15.0 ISD 15D 15.0 15.0

'amrtiltSa S4 6.4 5.0 S.0 5.0 10.0 .0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 .0 10.0

Debt Srvice 2.1 13.4 15.0 15.0 15.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 5.0 2S.0 5.0 25.0

I B R D 11683RI

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