Public Choice TheoryA Case Study

Strategic Voting BehaviorMicroeconomics

Dr. D. Foster

Public Choice Case Study: Public Choice Case Study:

1986 Congressional Race1986 Congressional RaceDistrict #1 – State of HawaiiDistrict #1 – State of Hawaii

Cec Heftel Cec Heftel wants to run for Governor !

He is currently the US Representative for District 1.

Mid-summer 1986

One problem: He must resign to run !

So, he resignsSo, he resigns

Need #1Need #1: Fill vacancy through Jan. 1987.

Need #2Need #2: Select nominees for general election.

Need #3Need #3: Elect Congressman in November.

Mid-summer 1986

PrimarySeptember

GeneralNovember

Elections

Solution: Combine #1 & #2 in September.Solution: Combine #1 & #2 in September.

The PlayersThe Players Mid-summer

1986Primary

SeptemberGeneral

November

Elections

Pat Saiki (R)Pat Saiki (R)

Neil Abercrombie (D)Neil Abercrombie (D)

Mufi Mufi Hanneman (D) Hanneman (D)

The RulesThe RulesAnyone can vote in the primary.Anyone can vote in the primary.

Mid-summer 1986

PrimarySeptember

GeneralNovember

Elections

The TwistThe TwistSaiki has no discernable competition.Saiki has no discernable competition.

A graphical look at public supportA graphical look at public support

Mid-summer 1986

PrimarySeptember

GeneralNovember

Elections

N.A. M.H. P.S.

September Results:September Results:

Pat Saiki wins Pat Saiki wins Republican primary.Republican primary.

Mufi Hanneman wins Mufi Hanneman wins Democratic primaryDemocratic primary

Mid-summer 1986

PrimarySeptember

GeneralNovember

Elections

Neil Abercrombie wins Neil Abercrombie wins Special Election !!!Special Election !!!

November Results:November Results:

Mid-summer 1986

PrimarySeptember

GeneralNovember

Elections

Pat Saiki wins Pat Saiki wins election !!!election !!!

RepublicansRepublicans voted for voted for MufiMufi in in primary - the “weaker” candidate, primary - the “weaker” candidate, and and he winshe wins!!!!!!

RepublicansRepublicans & & DemocratsDemocrats have an have an incentive to vote for their favorite in incentive to vote for their favorite in the special election; the special election; Neil winsNeil wins!!!!!!

Abercrombie supporters Abercrombie supporters voted for voted for Saiki in general election - Saiki in general election - retribution against Mufi’s campaign.retribution against Mufi’s campaign.

What happened ?What happened ?

SaikiSaiki won a second term (1988-1990). won a second term (1988-1990). SaikiSaiki ran for senate in 1990 - lost ran for senate in 1990 - lost

-- was selected to run SBA by Bush I. -- was selected to run SBA by Bush I. AbercromieAbercromie ran again, and won, in 1990. ran again, and won, in 1990.

-- served until 2010. -- served until 2010. HannemanHanneman lost 1990 race for District 2. lost 1990 race for District 2.

-- later served on Honolulu City Council. -- later served on Honolulu City Council. Cec Cec HeftelHeftel lost bid for governorship. lost bid for governorship.

DebriefDebrief

AbercromieAbercromie wants to be governor in 2010. wants to be governor in 2010. -- resigns from District 1 seat in 2010! -- resigns from District 1 seat in 2010!

HannemanHanneman becomes Honolulu mayor in 2004. becomes Honolulu mayor in 2004. -- re-elected in 2008. -- re-elected in 2008. -- wants to be governor in 2010! -- wants to be governor in 2010!

AbercromieAbercromie wins primary and general elections. wins primary and general elections. DjouDjou becomes interim Rep. for District 1. becomes interim Rep. for District 1.

-- loses general election. -- loses general election.

Debrief IIDebrief II

Public Choice TheoryA Case Study

Strategic Voting BehaviorMicroeconomics

Dr. D. Foster