Psychology 242

• http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242kp/– Under construction

Why Do We Need the Scientific Method in Order to Study Psychology?

• The methods we tend to use are subject to severe limitations.

• We tend to rely upon personal experience and authority in constructing our beliefs about the world.

• What are the limitations of these methods for understanding the world?

Class Exercise

• In the following exercise, I will ask you to make judgments about the personality of a person named Josh.

• I will present you with a number of brief descriptions of Josh, taken from statements made by some of his friends.

• After you have had a chance to read each statement, I’ll ask you some questions about Josh.

• Before we begin, we need two groups.

Group 1

• Your goal is to answer the following question:

Is Josh an introverted individual?

Group 2

• Your goal is to answer the following question:

Is Josh an extraverted individual?

Characteristics of Josh

• When Josh was a child, his favorite toy was a metal Tonka truck.

• “Cherry Garcia” is Josh’s favorite kind of ice cream.

• Josh likes to hang out with his friends and gossip.

• Josh is in his fourth year of graduate school at UIC.

• Josh can be shy when he is meeting someone for the first time.

• Josh is an “early bird,” and often gets up at dawn.

• Josh enjoys meeting and interacting with new people.

• Josh’s favorite meal is deep-fried eggplant and tofu.

• Josh enjoys spending time alone in his apartment, reading or writing.

• Josh spends too much money buying CDs.

Question

• Write down as many of the statements as you can recall.

Characteristics of Josh

• When Josh was a child, his favorite toy was a metal Tonka truck.

• “Cherry Garcia” is Josh’s favorite kind of ice cream.

• Josh likes to hang out with his friends and gossip.

• Josh is in his fourth year of graduate school at UIC.

• Josh can be shy when he is meeting someone for the first time.

• Josh is an “early bird,” and often gets up at dawn.

• Josh enjoys meeting and interacting with new people.

• Josh’s favorite meal is deep-fried eggplant and tofu.

• Josh enjoys spending time alone in his apartment, reading or writing.

• Josh spends too much money buying CDs.

Question

• Write down as many of the statements as you can recall.

• How many did you get correct? (no cheating allowed)

• Is there a pattern to the ones you forgot?

Five Limitations of Personal Experience

• 1. The Confirmation Bias and the Discounting Problem. We tend to seek out information that is consistent with our expectations and discount information that is inconsistent with those expectations.

Five Limitations of Personal Experience

• The class exercise demonstrates that people who are trying to answer the question “Is Josh Extraverted?” are more likely to remember information about Josh that was consistent with this assessment.

• In the process, information that was inconsistent with that judgment was ignored or forgotten.

• (There were two statements that were indicative of introversion and two that were indicative of extraversion. It might be most fair to say that Josh is neither highly extraverted or introverted.)

Characteristics of Josh

• When Josh was a child, his favorite toy was a metal Tonka truck.

• “Cherry Garcia” is Josh’s favorite kind of ice cream.

• Josh likes to hang out with his friends and gossip.

• Josh is in his fourth year of graduate school at UIC.

• Josh can be shy when he is meeting someone for the first time.

• Josh is an “early bird,” and often gets up at dawn.

• Josh enjoys meeting and interacting with new people.

• Josh’s favorite meal is deep-fried eggplant and tofu.

• Josh enjoys spending time alone in his apartment, reading or writing.

• Josh spends too much money buying CDs.

Five Limitations of Personal Experience

• 1. The Confirmation Bias and the Discounting Problem.

• 2. The Limited Data Problem. We tend to make inferences on the basis of very little information

The Limited Data Problem

• In psychology, this strategy is problematic because behavior is probabilistic and multi-determined

• Even highly extraverted or sociable people behave shyly in some circumstances. Thus, when we draw inferences based on a limited amount of information, we are impairing our ability to make the correct assessment.

Five Limitations of Personal Experience

• 1. The Confirmation Bias and the Discounting Problem.

• 2. The Limited Data Problem. • 3. The Expectations Problem. Our expectations

tend to influence the way we interpret events.

What do you see?

eyelash

nose

neck & necklace

ear

orientation

Young Woman

wart

(very large) nose

mouth

eye

orientation

shawl

Older Woman

Count the number of “F’s”

FEATURE FILMS ARE THE RE-

SULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTI-

FIC STUDY COMBINED WITH

THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS

FEATURE FILMS ARE THE RE-

SULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTI-

FIC STUDY COMBINED WITH

THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS

Answer: 6

Most people see 3, but don’t notice the f’s on OF. It appears that we process those f’s as v’s.

The Dangers of CHC

1. More than 98 percent of convicted felons have tested positive for CHC.

2. CHC is associated with all the major diseases of the body. For example, nearly all sick people have ingested CHC. The effects are obviously cumulative: 99.9% of all people who die from cancer have ingested CHC.

3. 99.7% of the people involved in auto accidents used a substance containing CHC within 6 months preceding the accident.

4. 93.1% of juvenile delinquents come from neighborhoods where CHC is used frequently.

Five Limitations of Personal Experience

• 1. The Confirmation Bias and the Discounting Problem.

• 2. The Limited Data Problem. • 3. The Expectations Problem. • 4. The Baserate/Comparison Group Problem. We

tend to overlook the fact that inferences about contingencies require some kind of comparison or standard.

The Dangers of Bread

1. More than 98 percent of convicted felons are bread users.

2. Bread is associated with all the major diseases of the body. For example, nearly all sick people have eaten bread. The effects are obviously cumulative: 99.9% of all people who die from cancer have eaten bread.

3. 99.7% of the people involved in auto accidents ate bread within 6 months preceding the accident.

4. 93.1% of juvenile delinquents came from homes where bread is served frequently.

Example

• Does eating chicken soup decrease cold severity?

• It is not enough to know that, for example, 7 of 10 people with a cold who had chicken soup started to feel better after 5 days.

• Why? Maybe 7 out of 10 people with a cold who didn’t have chicken soup started to feel better after 5 days too.

YesNo

Feel Better

Feel Same

or Worse

3

7

Chicken Soup

Eff

ect

7/10 felt better

3

7

7/10 felt better

YesNo

Feel Better

Feel Same

or Worse

3

7

Chicken Soup

Eff

ect

7/10 felt better

5

5

5/10 felt better

YesNo

Feel Better

Feel Same

or Worse

6

4

Chicken Soup

Eff

ect

4/10 felt better

10

1

1/10 felt better

Five Limitations of Personal Experience

• 1. The Confirmation Bias and the Discounting Problem.

• 2. The Limited Data Problem. • 3. The Expectations Problem. • 4. The Baserate/Comparison Group Problem. • 5. The Pleasant Truth Problem. We tend to

believe things that make us feel good (i.e., things that seem right).

How do these propositions “feel” to you?

• Peoples’ financial success in life is largely a function of the social status of the families they are born into and not their hard work or education per se.

• As a parent, how you rear your children plays virtually no role in whether your children grow up to become criminals or law-abiding citizens.

• Our conscious existence ends with physical death.

• The chronology of creation presented in the Book of Genesis is incompatible with findings uncovered using geological dating techniques.

• Our thoughts, emotions, personality, and sense of self can be changed by simply altering the biochemistry of the body.

• Morality and altruism “evolved” in animals via the process of natural selection.

• There is no “beyond the obvious” symbolism in our dreams.

TrueFalse

Feels Good

Feels Bad

Unpleasant Truths

Unpleasant Falsehoods

Pleasant Truths

Pleasant Falsehoods

Reality

Fee

ling

TrueFalse

Feels Good

Feels Bad

Unpleasant Truths

Unpleasant Falsehoods

Pleasant Truths

Pleasant Falsehoods

Reality

Fee

ling

What we tend to believe

TrueFalse

Feels Good

Feels Bad

Unpleasant Truths

Unpleasant Falsehoods

Pleasant Truths

Pleasant Falsehoods

Reality

Fee

ling

What we need to believe to be correct

Five Limitations of Personal Experience

• 1. The Confirmation Bias and the Discounting Problem.

• 2. The Limited Data Problem. • 3. The Expectations Problem. • 4. The Baserate/Comparison Group Problem. • 5. The Pleasant Truth Problem.