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PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRT: Ocean County ORF 467 Final Network Report Caroline Logue (partner: Julio Fredes) 1/11/2011

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Princeton University

PRT: Ocean County

ORF 467 Final Network Report

Caroline Logue (partner: Julio Fredes)

1/11/2011

Introduction

Ocean County, located fifty miles east of Philadelphia, seventy miles south of

New York, and twenty miles north of Atlantic City, holds a 2007 census estimated

population of 558,531 people with a density of 803 people per square mile. Toms

River is the county seat and, both the township and the county as a whole are one of

the fastest growing areas in New Jersey since the 1990s. Ocean County is the second

largest county by area (916 square miles) in New Jersey and is comprised of 30.53%

water. Monmouth County borders the north, Atlantic County the south, and

Burlington County the west. The county is a particular hotspot during the summer

months due to its extensive eastern border of the Atlantic Ocean.

The county, consisting of 33 municipalities, boasts several well-known

beaches including Seaside Heights, Long Beach Island, Point Pleasant Beach, and

Surf City. You’re almost guaranteed to endure heavy congestion on Route 37

crossing the Barnegat Bay to the Barnegat Peninsula when the weather’s hot. The

area is so popular that MTV’s great reality hit “Jersey Shore” films most of its

episodes in Seaside Heights. Public transportation is not very well developed and

the local roads become so clogged, that traffic may seem unbearable at times.

The largest Six Flags theme park, Six Flags Great Adventure, is located in the

northwestern part of the county along with Six Flags Wild Safari and Six Flags

Hurricane Harbor. Although a large portion of the county is the hub of summer

activity, the county also serves as the northeastern gateway into the Pine Barrens

and is home to several state parks, including Barnegat Lighthouse, Island Beach,

Double Trouble, and Jackson State Forest, among others. With an influx of people in

the summer months going to the shore or Six Flags, it is difficult to say whether a

PRT would be profitable year-round. Certainly the more rural western part of the

county might not be suitable to a PRT system, at least in the early stages of

development.

2009 ORF 467 PRT Proposal2008 ORF 467 PRT Proposal2007 ORF 467 PRT Proposal2004 ORF 467 PRT Proposal

More Information on Ocean CountyNJ DOT Rideshare

Placemark Data

To determine whether a PRT system would be advisable in Ocean County, we

first needed to input the coordinates of all major locations in the county.

Fortunately, past years had already compiled a substantial amount of data with

latitude and longitude coordinates and had provided estimates of people, patrons

per day, enrollment, etc. Before adding additional locations, I scrutinized the

existing data and adjusted figures that I felt were exaggerated. I noticed that several

of the companies listed would more likely be making house calls than working on

site at the company headquarters, and so I drastically decreased the number of

employees listed as working at several locations. To compensate for this decrease, I

assumed that 1% of the entire population of Ocean County (represented in type 1

housing data) was in receipt of some service call each day – whether it be a cleaning

staff, a UPS delivery, an internet service provider, etc. This 1% increase was

represented in the type 1 data under “Patrons per Day”; I used the “floor” function

in Excel to ensure that my calculations would all yield integers.

After critical examination of all figures, I used Google Earth to find additional

placemarks that may not have been considered. Google Earth presented all data

points in degrees, minutes, and seconds, so I converted this measure into decimal

points to be consistent with the already-existing CSV file. I included several

supermarkets, Wawas, Wal-Marts, and commercial banks, and in total I added over

30 placemarks.

Initial Networks

The first network I developed is along Route 37 beginning at the cloverleaf

interchange with the Garden State Parkway. Starting at the Garden State Parkway

allows cars to park and take the PRT to the beach just after leaving the parkway.

Route 37 runs along the border of Toms River, the county seat, and Island Heights

and crosses the Barnegat Bay to the Barnegat Peninsula where summer hotspots

like Seaside Heights are located. Due to vacationers and rapid growth in commercial

development, Route 37 is often congested especially in the summer. Although there

is a bus along the road to the shore, the vast amount of congestion makes a PRT

network seem like a much more viable solution.

I faced two challenges building my first network. The peninsula is quite

isolated from the main land with only one bridge on the southern end and the land

is so narrow that a “string-of-pearls” network is really the only option lest we lose

money placing incoming stations too close to outgoing stations. The only option I

deemed possible was creating two-way guideway for both the bridge crossing and

the majority of the peninsula. Although the shore is a craze during the summer, we

would want to be cautious before developing in this area that we wouldn’t lose vast

amounts of money for the remaining three quarters of the year.

The second network I developed is in Toms River with Route 37 running

through it. I found this township to be particularly dense especially with the Ocean

County Mall and the largest suburban school district in the state. This network,

situated on the mainland, was far easier to develop and I connected a series of cycles

with interchanges to allow for maximum mobility. Inserting the interchanges, I paid

particular attention to travel time, so that people would not be going outing of their

way on any given trip. With the exception of the narrow bridge, in the bottom left

corner of the image, connecting some residential areas to the main attractions, there

is no two-way guideway in this network.

Because there are about six million visits to Six Flags Great Adventure in

Jackson, NJ each year, I wanted my third network to serve Six Flags. Unfortunately

other than the three Six Flags sites and Jackson Outlets, the northwestern portion of

the county is quite rural. The network is not nearly as intricate as the one I created

for Toms River; however, I still attempted to maintain the cyclic design from before.

The area also appears to be swampy so I had to use additional guideway to ensure

the PRT would not run through these swamp zones. The rural area required a lot

more guideway than I expected.

Preliminary financial analysis of these three networks is included in the

appendix.

Final Network

View of Northeast

View of Northwest

View of South

In the final network I connected a series of cycles using interchanges

wherever possible. The networks were rather intricate all along the eastern portion

of the county; however, the center and western areas were quite a bit more spread

out. Because Six Flags is located in the rural western area though, I still found it

necessary to provide outlets to these less frequented rural areas. As a result, there

are often several miles of guideway in central Ocean County with fewer stations.

Network Statistics

The tool indicated that stations serving less than 1,000 trips were not

profitable, and so I attempted to serve at least 1,000 as much as possible. Often the

rural areas did not reach this many trips, which explains why some portions of the

aerial view seem spottier. I completed the network with 702 stations and 287

interchanges, totaling 753.45 miles of guideway. This corresponds to 1,240,621

trips per day and we assumed the average trip length to be 5 miles. I reached

83.54% service in Ocean County, which is shy of the 90% goal primarily because of

the less dense western region. The chart below summarizes these network statistics.

StationsInterchange

s

Miles of Guideway

LengthTotal Trip

ends served Toal TripsPeak hour

Trips Fleet sizeAverage trip

Length

Average Vehicle

Occupancy Fare

Vehicle Operating Costs

(#) (#) (miles) (per day) (per day) (per day) (#) (Miles) (Trips/vehicle)702 287 753.45 2,970,141 1,240,621 186,093 20,470 5 2 $3.00 0.20$

Networks Statistics; Ocean County

The trip ends served by day according to ascending station ID number are

shown below.

1 35 69 103137171205239273307341375409443477511545579613647681 -

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Trip ends served per stationOcean County

StationsTri

p E

dn

s se

rved

per

d

ay

Reordering the graph by descending number of trips, it is easy to see that the

bulk of stations, about 650, make less than 10,000 trips per day and that there are

only 16 stations that have trips served in excess of 20,000 trips. The maximum

number of trips made is 42,356 trips while the lowest number of trips, which

happens to be especially low, is 392 trips.

1 33 65 97 129161193225257289321353385417449481513545577609641673 -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Trip ends served per stationMonmouth County

Highest to lowestTri

p E

dn

s se

rved

per

day

Network Financials

From the network statistics chart above, we assumed the average

vehicle occupancy was 2 and the fare was $3/ride. We also defined the

peak period as carrying 15% of the total trips per day and from this we

calculated the fleet size as (peak hour trips/10)*1.1. Recall that it costs

$2 million to build each station and $5 million for every mile of

guideway. Vehicle costs are assumed to be 0.10 times the total fleet size

while maintenance costs are 2% of the total cost. A few other

assumptions on costs, also defined in the chart below, suggest that were

we to implement the entire network in one year we would reap a profit

of $234 million.

P&L

Stations Guideway Vehicles Total Cost of CapitalMaintenanceOperating Total Fare

Station lease and naming

rights Total(M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$) (M$)

1,404$ 3,767$ 2,047$ 7,218$ 577$ 144$ 186$ 908$ 1,117$ 25$ 1,142$ 234$

Capital Costs Annual Recurring Costs Annual RevenueBasic Costs, Revenue; Ocean County

Analyzing further, we see that the break-even fare is about $2.45,

which is incredibly low. And given the size of the county, 916 square

miles, it’s likely people will be traveling several miles to get to a number

of their destinations. Thus, a fare of even $3.50 could be reasonable, and

would reap profits even greater than expected.

-$200

-$100

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs

Cost per ride (in $)

Ocean County P&L

Dijkstra’s Algorithm (section written together with Julio)

We implemented Dijkstra’s algorithm in MATLAB to measure how efficient

our networks are. To do this, we used the “matrices.html” link provided by John and

Nathan and followed the simple instructions to obtain the distances traveled. In the

gravity method we implemented in the My City assignment we assumed that

distances between two zones were just 1.2 times the Cartesian distance of their

centroids. We see now, after applying Dijkstra’s algorithm to our network, that in

our last assignment we made a gross simplification. Although each of our counties

are 916 square miles (Ocean County) and 665 square miles (Monmouth County), the

top ten distances between two stations running along network guideway can reach

as much as 108.42 miles for Ocean County and 69.71 miles for Monmouth.

Starting Station

Ending Station

Distance Traveled

657 612 108.42655 612 108.41114 612 108.29108 612 108.03658 612 107.91536 612 107.75115 612 107.73656 612 107.46660 612 107.19657 614 107.17655 614 107.16659 612 107.14114 614 107.04108 614 106.78537 612 106.66658 614 106.66657 613 106.66655 613 106.65534 612 106.63114 613 106.53

**See appendix for MATLAB code.

Looking closely at the above chart it appears that the same cluster of ending

stations cause difficulty and if I had more time I would add more interchanges in the

area so that this subsection would be more properly linked to the overall network.

These figures highlight the trade off we made when creating our networks. In

an effort to conserve money, we purposely avoided constructing stations and,

consequently, guideway that would produce fewer than 1,000 trips per day; this

cost consciousness caused us to serve fewer than 90% of trips as per the initial goal.

Our conservative approach to laying stations inevitably produced networks that

were less efficient.

What we deem most advisable would be to begin construction on the

conservative end that we have upheld in our final network design, and hold off on

investigating technical inefficiencies until the network has proven itself sustainable

and profitable in the long run.

Appendix of MATLAB code for Dijkstra’s Algorithm

A = csvread('oceanadjmat.csv');C = csvread('oceanguidewaydist.csv'); LoS = csvread('ocean-los.csv');[cost,path] = dijkstra(A,C); for i = 1:length(cost)    for j = 1:length(cost)        if cost(i,j) == Inf            cost(i,j) = 0;        end    endend maximums = zeros(3,10); for i = 1:20   [r_val r_ind] = max(cost,[],1);   [col_val col_ind] = max(r_val);      maximums(1,i) = r_ind(col_ind);   maximums(2,i) = col_ind;   maximums(3,i) = cost(r_ind(col_ind),col_ind);   cost(r_ind(col_ind),col_ind) = 0;end

Appendix of Preliminary Financials *(not comparable to ultimate financial analysis)

Network 1. From Garden State Parkway Cloverleaf Interchange along Route 37 to Barnegat Peninsula

Figures assuming 144,915 Trips per day

Cost of One-way Guideway $- Cost of Two-way Guideway $147,120,000.00 Cost of Stations $46,000,000.00 Total Building Cost $193,120,000.00 Upper Bound Total Building Cost $212,432,000.00

Annual Maintenance $4,248,640.00 Average Trip Length $18.39 Annual Operating Cost $97,272,020.03 Annual Interest Cost $12,745,920.00 Total Annual Cost $114,266,580.03

Annual Fares Revenue $158,681,925.00 Annual Rent $828,000.00 Total Annual Revenue $159,509,925.00

Anticipated Annual Revenues/ Anticipated Annual Costs 1.40

Total Revenue after 30 years $4,785,297,750.00 Total Cost after 30 years $3,640,429,400.75 Revenue less Cost after 30 years $1,144,868,349.25

Number of Trips 144915Number of Miles of One-way Guideway 0Number of Miles of Two-way Guideway 24.52Number of Stations 23Average % of Guideway Ridden 0.75Cost per mile of One-way Guideway 5000000Cost per mile of Two-way Guideway 6000000Cost of Station 2000000Operating Cost per Mile 0.2% Maintenance Cost on Capital 0.02Threshold Upper Bound Capital Cost 1.1Average Number of Riders in Vehicle 2Average Fare Paid 3Rent Paid Per Month Per Station 3000Interest Rate on Bond 0.06

To justify building the project we would need to be making at least 54,860 trips per

day, which is considerably lower than the estimated number of trips. But, we must

keep in mind that we don’t currently have information on productions and

attractions, so the actual trips in the network are likely quite a bit lower than

144,915. In addition, this network caters specifically to the summer season, since a

majority of the stations are on the peninsula, along the beach. In the winter season,

we would anticipate a drastic drop in trip demand to this area.

Network 2. In Toms River traveling to local high schools, medical centers, the mall, restaurants and residential areas

Figures assuming 217,180 Trips per dayCost of One-way Guideway $96,750,000.00 Cost of Two-way Guideway $4,500,000.00 Cost of Stations $20,000,000.00 Total Building Cost $121,250,000.00 Upper Bound Total Building Cost $133,375,000.00

Annual Maintenance $2,667,500.00 Average Trip Length $10.05 Annual Operating Cost $79,667,053.50 Annual Interest Cost $8,002,500.00 Total Annual Cost $90,337,053.50

Annual Fares Revenue $237,812,100.00 Annual Rent $360,000.00 Total Annual Revenue $238,172,100.00

Anticipated Annual Revenues/ Anticipated Annual Costs 2.64

Total Revenue after 30 years $7,145,163,000.00 Total Cost after 30 years $2,843,486,605.00 Revenue less Cost after 30 years $4,301,676,395.00

Number of Trips 217180Number of Miles of One-way Guideway 19.35Number of Miles of Two-way Guideway 0.75Number of Stations 10

Average % of Guideway Ridden 0.5Cost per mile of One-way Guideway 5000000Cost per mile of Two-way Guideway 6000000Cost of Station 2000000Operating Cost per Mile 0.2% Maintenance Cost on Capital 0.02Threshold Upper Bound Capital Cost 1.1Average Number of Riders in Vehicle 2Average Fare Paid 3Rent Paid Per Month Per Station 3000Interest Rate on Bond 0.06

To justify building the project we would need to be making at least 20,500 trips per

day, which is considerably lower than the estimated number of trips. But, we must

keep in mind that we don’t currently have information on productions and

attractions, so the actual trips in the network are likely quite a bit lower than

217,180.

Network 3. Six Flags Great Adventure, Water Park, Jackson Outlets, Residential

Figures Assuming 129,922 Cost of One-way Guideway $147,900,000.00 Cost of Two-way Guideway $- Cost of Stations $18,000,000.00 Total Building Cost $165,900,000.00 Upper Bound Total Building Cost $182,490,000.00

Annual Maintenance $3,649,800.00 Average Trip Length $23.66 Annual Operating Cost $112,218,308.59 Annual Interest Cost $10,949,400.00 Total Annual Cost $126,817,508.59

Annual Fares Revenue $142,264,590.00 Annual Rent $324,000.00 Total Annual Revenue $142,588,590.00

Anticipated Annual Revenues/ Anticipated Annual Costs 1.12

Total Revenue after 30 years $4,277,657,700.00 Total Cost after 30 years $3,987,015,257.76 Revenue less Cost after 30 years $290,642,442.24

Number of Trips 129922Number of Miles of One-way Guideway 29.58Number of Miles of Two-way Guideway 0Number of Stations 9Average % of Guideway Ridden 0.8Cost per mile of One-way Guideway 5000000Cost per mile of Two-way Guideway 6000000Cost of Station 2000000Operating Cost per Mile 0.2% Maintenance Cost on Capital 0.02Threshold Upper Bound Capital Cost 1.1Average Number of Riders in Vehicle 2Average Fare Paid 3Rent Paid Per Month Per Station 3000Interest Rate on Bond 0.06

To justify building the project we would need to be making at least 88,500 trips per

day, which is unfortunately not too much lower than the estimated number of trips.