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Prp Assign Slides

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Probability

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Page 1: Prp Assign Slides
Page 2: Prp Assign Slides

Recall your experience when you take an elevator.

Think about usually how long it takes for the elevator to arrive.

Most likely, the experience may be it frequently comes in a short while and once in a while, it may come pretty late.

Page 3: Prp Assign Slides

In another word, if we want to use a random variable to measure the waiting time for elevator to come, we can say that:◦ 1. It must be continuous.◦ 2. Smaller values have larger probability and

larger values have smaller probability.◦ Think about Geometric distribution, is there any

similarities?

Page 4: Prp Assign Slides

Usually, exponential distribution is used to describe the time or distance until some event happens.

It is in the form of:

◦ where x ≥ 0 and μ>0. μ is the mean or expected value.

1( )

x

f x e

Page 5: Prp Assign Slides

In this case,

Then the mean or expected value is

( ) xf x e 1

1

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00

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

x

R(x)

Page 7: Prp Assign Slides

We also use CDF to find probabilities under exponential distribution.

Or

00

0

0

( ) ( ) 1xx

P x x f x dx e

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )b

a

x

a b b a

x

P x x x f x dx P x x P x x

0 0

( ) ( ) ( ) 1 (1 )b a a bb b a

a

x x x xx x x

x

f x dx f x dx f x dx e e e e

Page 8: Prp Assign Slides

E(X)= μ or

Var(X)= μ2 or

1

2

1